1 contents introduction 2 fracking and unconventional shale gas production 3 assessing potential...
TRANSCRIPT
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Contents
Introduction 2
FrackingandUnconventionalShaleGasProduction 3
Assessingpotentialharmsandbenefits 3
Hazards,RisksandHarms 7
Waterpollution 10
Wellintegrity 23
Wastewatermanagement 26
Airpollution 28
Healthimpactsofpollution 34
Hazardsandrisksassociatedwithtraffic,noise,lightandodour 42
Social,economicandlocalenvironmentaleffects 45
Fugitiveemissions 55
RegulationandRiskManagement 65
EconomicandCommercialViability 76
ClimateChangeandHealth 79
GlobalGHGemissionsandcarbonbudgets 85
TheUK:GHGemissionsandenergypolicy 92
CarbonCaptureandStorage 104
Energyefficiencyandconservation 104
BroaderDevelopmentPolicyandCo-BenefitsofCCMitigation 115
Acknowledgements
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A. Introduction
1. InApril2015,Medactpublishedanassessmentofthepotentialhealththreatsassociatedwithshalegasproduction(SGP),includingtheprocessofhighvolume,hydraulicfracturing(‘fracking’)andreportedthat:• significanthazardsareunavoidablyassociatedwithfrackingandcouldimpactnegativelyon
thehealthandwellbeingoflocalcommunities;• the regulatory framework for fracking in theUKwasunclear, incomplete and inadequate,
andcompromisedfurtherbybudgetandstaffcutstoregulatoryagencies;and• shalegasisnotnecessarilya‘clean’sourceofenergyandmayhinderourtransitiontowards
adecarbonisedenergysystem.2. MedactconcludedthattherisksandthreatsassociatedwithSGPoutweigheditspotential
benefits,andrecommendedthatitshouldnotbeencouragedintheUK.
3. Sincepublishingthatreport,MedacthascontinuedtomonitorthescientificliteratureandpolicydebatesconcerningSGP.Inaddition,MedactstaffhaveparticipatedinpublicationofasystematicreviewofthescientificresearchonthehealtheffectsofSGP.
4. Thisdocumentconsistsofasetofsemi-structurednotesthathavebeenusedtoinformanewpublicationthatsetsoutMedact’spositiononSGP.Thisnewpublication(ShaleGasProductioninEngland:AnUpdatedPublicHealthAssessment)isfreelyavailablefromtheMedactwebsite.1
5. Thepurposeofthesenotesistopresentsomeofthewide-rangingissues,dataandanalysisthat
areneededforawell-informed,holisticandnuancedunderstandingofSGP.Wehopethenoteswillprovideausefulresourceforothersworkingonthisissueandforinterestedmembersofthegeneralpublic.
6. Thisdocumentisaworkinprogress,andwillbeupdatedonanongoingbasis.
7. HavingreviewedattheliteratureonSGPandatargumentsputforwardbyproponentsofshale
gaswhoarguethatSGPcanbeconductedsafely,andthatshalegasisarelativelyclean,beneficialandstrategically-importantsourceofenergy,wecontinuetoadviseagainstthedevelopmentofashalegasindustryintheUKonthegroundsthatitrepresentsasignificantthreattohumanhealthandwellbeingthatmaybeavoidable.
8. ManyoftheconcernsaboutthepotentialrisksassociatedwithSGPrelatetonaturalgasand
fossilfuelsmoregenerally.However,thisdocumentisfocusedspecificallyonthepolicytoencourageSGPintheUK.
1http://www.medact.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/medact_shale-gas_WEB.pdf
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B. FrackingandUnconventionalShaleGasProduction
9. Theterm‘fracking’iscommonlyusedtodescribeaprocessofshalegasextractionthatusesatechniqueknownas‘high-volume,hydraulicfracturing’(HVHF)inwhichhighvolumesoffluidareinjectedundergroundunderhighpressure.Thisisdesignedtofracturegas-bearingshaleformationsthatlieunderground,allowinggastobereleasedandtoflowuptothesurfacewhereitcanbecapturedforuse.
10. Frackingisalsoassociatedwiththeterm‘unconventionalnaturalgas’(UNG)whichislooselydefinedtomeangasthatiscapturedfromunconventionalreservoirsandincludesshalegasandcoalbedmethane.
11. ShalegasisaformofUNGbecauseitistrappedorlockedwithinthefine-grainedsedimentary
rocksofshaleformationsthatlieunderground,andcanonlybereleasedoncetheshaleisartificiallyfractured.Althoughhydraulicfracturinghasbeenusedtostimulateoilandgaswellsformanydecades,thehighvolumesandhighpressuresoffluidrequiredtofractureshalerockarerelativelynewdevelopments.
12. Shalegasproduction(SGP)isalsocharacterisedbyimprovementsinhorizontaldrilling
techniqueswhichallowhorizontalboreholestobedrilledforupto10kmatdepthsofmorethan1.5km.Thesedevelopmentsinengineeringhaveallowedtheoilandgasindustrytofracturegreateramountsofshalerockthatwerepreviouslyconsideredinaccessibleoruneconomic.2
13. ThisreportisnotlimitedtoanassessmentofthepotentialhealtheffectsofHVHF,butcovers
theentireprocessofSGPincludingtheconstructionofwellpads;thedrillingofboreholes;theextractionanduseofwater;thestorage,transportationofwasteproducts;andtheprocessing,storageandtransportationofnaturalgastoendusers.
C. Assessingpotentialharmsandbenefits
10. AnassessmentofthepotentialhealthimpactofSGPhastobebalanced,andmustconsiderboththepotentialharmsandbenefitsofSGP.
11. Wehaveusedaframeworkthatincorporatestwosetsofbenefits(Figure1).First,thoserelatedtoenergyitself,whichhasbeenacrucialingredienttotheremarkableimprovementsinhumanhealthwitnessedoverthepast250years.Second,thepotentialeconomicbenefitsintermsofrevenue,jobcreationandlocalinvestment.
12. Theframeworkalsodescribesfivesetsofpotentialharms:1)exposuretohazardousmaterialsandpollutants;2)exposuretoso-called‘nuisances’suchasnoise,lightpollution,odourandtrafficcongestion;3)socialandeconomiceffectsthatmayhaveanadverseimpactonhealthand
2Adgateetal(2014)hasnotedthattherapidincreaseinthetechnology’sdevelopmentintheUShasbroughtwellsandrelatedinfrastructureclosertopopulationcentres
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wellbeing;4)seismic(earthquake)activity;and5)thereleaseofgreenhousegases(GHGs)andtheeffectsofglobalwarmingandclimatechange.
Figure1:AframeworkdescribingthepotentialbenefitsandharmsofSGP
13. Thetypeofnegativehealtheffectsthatmayarisefromthesefivesetsofpotentialharmsare
many,andconsistofbothacuteandchronicdiseasesandillnesses,includingthosemediatedbypsychologicalandemotionalpathways.Negativehealtheffectsmayarisefromperceptionsofriskwhichcanresultinanxiety,stressandfear.3Someeffectsmaybeexperiencedimmediately,whilstothers(suchasexposuretocarcinogenictoxins)maytakemanyyears.
14. Theframeworkaboveexcludesoccupationalhealthrisksrelatedtoaccidentsorequipment
malfunctionsonandaroundthewellpad.AlthoughtherearefewdataspecifictoSGP,oilandgasproductionisrelativelydangerouscomparedtomanyotherformsofindustrialactivity.45
15. Blowoutscancausedrillpipe,mud,cement,frackingfluids,andflowbacktobeejectedfromthe
boreandexpelledathighpressure;andcansetoffanexplosion.Firescaninvolveotherequipmentonthewellpad.Historicaldatafromtheoilandgasindustryindicatethatblowout
3Luria,ParkinsandLyons(2009)‘HealthRiskPerceptionandEnvironmentalProblems:FindingsfromtencasestudiesintheNorthWestofEngland’.LiverpoolJMUCentreforPublic4AdgateJL,GoldsteinBDandMcKenzieLM,2014.PotentialPublicHealthHazards,ExposuresandHealthEffectsfromUnconventionalNaturalGasDevelopment.Environ.Sci.Technol48(15),pp8307–83205WitterRZ,TenneyL,ClarkSandNewmanL.Occupationalexposuresintheoilandgasextractionindustry:stateofthescienceandresearchrecommendations.Am.J.Ind.Med.2014,inpress.
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frequencyisapproximately1per10,000wells.6PublisheddatafromtheMarcellusShaleindicatesablowoutriskof0.17%fortheyears2005–2013.7
16. Thepotentialharmsassociatedwithclimatechangerelatetothefactthatnaturalgasisbothafossilfuelandagreenhousegasinitsownright.Becauseofitspotentialtocontributetoglobalwarming,ahealthimpactassessmentofSGPintheUKneedstoconsiderthepotentialimpactsofclimatechangeonglobalhealthmoregenerally.
17. InassessingthepotentialharmsandbenefitsofSGP,ithastoberecognisedthattheeffectsand
outcomesofSGParedependentonarangeofmodulatingfactorsthatarecontext-specific(asillustratedinFigure1).
18. Clearly,thescaleandintensityofSGP,andthesize,compositionandproximityoflocal
communities,willhaveaconsiderablebearingonthelevelofriskandimpactonhealth.Similarly,localdemographicfeaturesandthenatureofpre-existingeconomicactivitieswillinfluencetheextenttowhichanysocial,culturalandeconomicdisruptioncausedbySGPimpactsnegativelyonlocalcommunities.
19. Thespecificgeologicalfeaturesoftheshaleformationsandtheiroverlyingstrata,geographic
variablessuchasthelocalclimateandtopography,andthenatureofthelocalecosystemandroadnetwork,arealsoimportantvariablesthatinfluencethetypeanddegreeofriskassociatedwithSGP.
20. Theadequacyandeffectivenessofregulationandtheethicalstandardsandoperatingpracticesofshalegasoperators(includingtheadoptionofnewengineeringtechnologiesandsafetyimprovements)aresimilarlyimportantindetermininglevelsofsafety.
21. TheeconomicbenefitsofSGPandtheirdistributionacrosssocietyaredependentonvariousfactorsincludingfuturegasprices;thetaxandsubsidyregimeappliedtotheshalegasindustry;theemploymentpracticesofshalegasoperators;andtheadequacyandeffectivenessofasanctionsregimeintheeventofaccidents,malpracticeornegligence.
22. Forthesereasons,thereisnosuchthingasastandardfrackingoperationandonecannotderiveageneralisablemeasureoftheharmsandbenefitsassociatedwithSGP.WhileitisimportanttolearnfromexperiencesofSGPinothersettings,especiallytheUnitedStates,lessonsmustbeappliedcarefullytotheUK.Differencesinthegeology,geography,regulatoryenvironmentandenergyeconomyoftheUSandUKcanbeconsiderable.
23. EvenwithintheUSA,conditionsandpracticesdifferfromstatetostate.Accordingtothe
CaliforniaCouncilonScienceandTechnology,“hydraulicfracturingpracticeandgeologicconditionsinCaliforniadifferfromthoseinotherstates,andassuch,recentexperienceswith
6InternationalAssociationofOil&GasProducers,2010.Blowoutfrequencies.http://www.ogp.org.uk/pubs/434-02.pdf7ConsidineTJ,WatsonRW,ConsidineNB,MartinJP,2013.EnvironmentalregulationandcomplianceofMarcellusshalegasdrilling.Environ.Geosci.20,1e16.
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hydraulicfracturinginotherstatesdonotnecessarilyapplytocurrenthydraulicfracturinginCalifornia”8
24. Anothergeneralpointisthatthereisadistributionaldimensiontoconsider.Boththenegative
andpositiveeffectsofSGPwillbeunevenlydistributedacrosspopulationsalonggeographic,temporalandsocialdimensions.ThebalanceofbenefitandharmwillvarywithinandbetweenlocalcommunitiesdirectlyaffectedbySGP,aswellasacrossnationalandglobalpopulations.Eventheimpactofexposuretochemicalhazardswillvarywithinacommunityduetotheunevendistributionofriskfactorssuchasdeprivation,poordietandpre-existinghealthconditionsthatinfluencevulnerabilitytotheeffectsofpotentialhazards.
25. Theunequaldistributionofharmsandbenefitsacrosssociety(includingbetweencurrentandfuturegenerations),aswellastheneedtoconsiderthetrade-offbetweenharmsandbenefits,involvesethicalconsiderationsandtheaccommodationofdifferentsocialvaluesandpreferences.9
26. TheapproachtakeninthisreporttoassessthehealtheffectsofSGPisthereforebroadand
involvesawiderangeoffactors.Itstandsincontrasttothe2014PublicHealthEngland(PHE)reportonshalegaswhichonlyaddressedtherisksassociatedwithchemicalandradioactivepollutants,andexcluded“otherconsiderations,suchaswatersustainability,noise,traffic(apartfromvehicleexhaustemissions),odour,visualimpact,occupationalexposureandwiderpublichealthissues,havenotbeenaddressed”,aswellastheimpactsofonclimatechange.
27. Intermsofthescientificliterature,SGPisarelativelynewandevolvingactivity.Research
examiningtherelationshipbetweenSGPandhealthislimitedbothintermsofthequantityandqualityofstudies.Althoughthescientificliteratureisexpanding,asummationmadebyAdgateetalin2014stillholdstrue:“TodateobservationalstudiesexploringtheassociationbetweenhumanhealthandUNGdevelopmenthavehadanumberofscientificlimitations,includingself-selectedpopulations,smallsamplesizes,relativelyshortfollow-uptimesandunclearlosstofollow-uprates,limitedexposuremeasurementsand/orlackofaccesstorelevantexposuredata,andlackofconsistentlycollectedhealthdata,particularlyfornon-cancerhealtheffects”.10
28. Additionally,becauserigorousandindependentexposureandhealthimpactstudiesmaybe
expensive,atendencytorelyondatacollectedbytheindustryitself,resultsinbiaswithintheexistingscientificliterature.11Incompleteregulationandtheapplicationofnon-disclosure
8CaliforniaCouncilonScienceandTechnology,2015.AnIndependentScientificAssessmentofWellStimulationinCalifornia:SummaryReport.AnExaminationofHydraulicFracturingandAcidStimulationsintheOilandGasIndustry.9SeeEvensen,D.(2016),Ethicsand‘fracking’:areviewof(thelimited)moralthoughtonshalegasdevelopment.WIREsWater,3:575–586.doi:10.1002/wat2.115210AdgateJL,GoldsteinBDandMcKenzieLM,2014.PotentialPublicHealthHazards,ExposuresandHealthEffectsfromUnconventionalNaturalGasDevelopment.Environ.Sci.Technol48(15),pp8307–8320.11WattersonandDinan,2015.HealthImpactAssessments,Regulation,andtheUnconventionalGasIndustryintheUK:ExploitingResources,Ideology,andExpertise.JournalofEnvironmentalandOccupationalHealthPolicy0(0)1–33.
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agreementshavealsohindereddatacollectionandpublicinterestmonitoringandevaluationofthegasindustryintheUS.121314
29. Anumberofauthorshavenotedthecommonmethodologicalchallengesinvolvedinconducting
riskassessmentsassociatedwithengineeringandindustrialprocessessuchasSGP,including:a)inherentuncertaintiesinassigningprobabilitiesandappropriatevaluesforestimations;b)thedifficultyindistinguishingbetweenobjectiveknowledgeandsubjectivejudgments;c)thechallengesofworkingwithintangiblesandtemporaldata;d)thefrequentuseofnon-disclosureagreementsthatallowcompaniestoholdbackdatarequiredformakingriskassessments;ande)thefactthatpsychological,social,institutionalandculturalfactorsaffectperceptionsofrisksandinfluenceriskbehaviours.15
30. BecauseadegreeofjudgementisinevitableintheformationofanypositiononSGP,itis
importantthatconflictsofinterest(financialandotherwise)aredeclared.
31. ItisworthnotingthatintheUS,therehavebeenanumberofcontroversiesassociatedwithresearchandcommentarypiecesaboutshalegasthathavebeenproducedbyuniversityscientistssponsoredbytheoilandgasindustry.16HereintheUK,therehasbeenlittleindependentshalegas-relatedresearch,research.AreviewofshalegasextractionconductedbytheRoyalSocietyandtheRoyalAcademyofEngineeringin2012recommendedthatacross-councilresearchprogrammebeestablishedintheUK,butthishasnothappened.17
D. Hazards,RisksandHarms
HazardousMaterialsandPollutants
32. SGPisaninherentlyriskyactivity.AccordingtoaUnitedNationalEnvironmentalProgramme(UNEP)briefingnote,“hydrologicfrackingmayresultinunavoidableenvironmentalimpactsevenifunconventionalgasisextractedproperly,andmoresoifdoneinadequately”.18Furthermore,evenifriskcanbereducedtheoretically,“inpracticemanyaccidentsfromleakyormalfunctioningequipment,aswellasfrompoorpractices,regularlyoccur”.
12MauleA,MakeyC,BensonE,BurrowsIandScammelM,2013.Disclosureofhydraulicfracturingfluidchemicaladditives:analysisofregulations.NewSolut.23(1):167–87.PM.23552653.13https://www.guernicamag.com/daily/naveena-sadasivam-in-fracking-fight-a-worry-about-how-best-to-measure-health-threats/14http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-06-06/drillers-silence-u-dot-s-dot-water-complaints-with-sealed-settlements15See:Rennetal.,1992).Aven(2012),AvenandKristensen(2005)Pidgeon(1998)16NelsonC.Frackingresearch:playingwithfire.TimesHigherEducationSupplement,https://www.timeshighereducation.co.uk/features/fracking-research-playing-withfire/2007351.article17TheRoyalSocietyandTheRoyalAcademyofEngineering,2012.ShalegasextractionintheUK:areviewofhydraulicfracturing.https://royalsociety.org/~/media/policy/projects/shale-gas-extraction/2012-06-28-shale-gas.pdf18UNEP.Gasfracking:canwesafelysqueezetherocks?UNEPGlobalEnvironmentalAlertService,http://www.unep.org/pdf/UNEP-GEAS_NOV_2012.pdf(accessed23May2013).
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33. Eventheindustry-fundedTaskForceonShaleGasnotesthat“clearlythereisarangeofhazardspotentiallyassociatedwithshalegasoperations”.19
34. Amongthehealthrisksisexposuretohazardouspollutants,whicharetypicallyeitherairborneorwaterborne;andwhichcanaffecthumanseitherdirectlyorindirectly.
35. Pollutants,withsubsequentriskstoboththeenvironmentandpeople,areproducedacrossall
stagesofSGPincludingwellpadconstruction;drilling;hydraulicfracturing;gasextraction,treatment,storageandtransportation;themanagementofwasteproducts;andevenafterwellshavebeensealedandabandoned.
36. Amongthepotentiallyhazardouschemicalsandcompoundsare:particulatematter(PM);oxides
ofnitrogen(NOx);volatileorganiccompounds(VOCs),includingformaldehyde,benzene,toluene,ethylbenzene,xyleneandpoly-aromatichydrocarbons(PAHs);hydrogensulphide;ozone20;silica;heavymetalssuchaslead,selenium,chromiumandcadmium;andnormally-occurringradioactivematerial(NORM).
37. Elliott21systematicallyreviewedthepotentialreproductiveanddevelopmentaltoxicityofover
1000chemicalsidentifiedinfracturingfluidsand/orwastewater.Datawereavailableforonly24%ofthesechemicals;65%ofwhichsuggestedpotentialtoxicity.Webbetal’s2014literaturereviewalsoconcludedthatchemicalsusedandproducedinunconventionaloilandgasoperationswereknowndevelopmentalandreproductivetoxins.22
38. Colborn23reviewedthetoxicityof352chemicalsusedinUSnaturalgasoperationsincluding
UNGdevelopmentandfoundthat25%werepotentiallymutagenicorcarcinogenic.Inaddition,over75%hadthepotentialtocauseeffectsontheskin,eyes,respiratoryandgastro-intestinal(GI)systems;40-50%onthenervous,immune,cardiovascularandrenalsystems;and37%onendocrinesystem.Inevitably,thisisnotacomprehensivereview.InformationonthefullcompositionoftheproductsusedintheUSislimited,partlybycommercialconfidentiality,andsomeofthechemicalsdisclosedhavenotbeensubjectedtoafulltoxicologicalassessment.
39. WhenitcomestoNORM,astudypublishedinJune2014byDurhamUniversityonthelikely
radioactivityofflowbackfluid,concludedthat“levelsofNORMmeasuredinflowbackwateraremanytimeshigherthanfoundingroundwater,butalongwaybelowthepermittedUKexposure
19TaskForceonShaleGas.Firstreport:Planning,RegulationandLocalEngagement.20Troposphericozoneisasecondaryairpollutantproducedphotochemicallythroughcomplexreactionsinvolvingvolatileorganiccompounds(VOCs)andnitrogenoxides21Elliott,EG,Ettinger,AS,Leaderer,BP,Bracken,MB,Deziel,NC(2016)Asystematicevaluationofchemicalsinhydraulic-fracturingfluidsandwastewaterforreproductiveanddevelopmentaltoxicity, JournalofExposureScienceandEnvironmentalEpidemiologyadvanceonlinepublication,6January2016;doi:10.1038/jes.2015.81.22Webbetal,2014.Developmentalandreproductiveeffectsofchemicalsassociatedwithunconventionaloilandnaturalgasoperations.RevEnvironHealth.29(4):307-18.doi:10.1515/reveh-2014-0057.23ColbornT,KwiatkowskiC,SchultzK,BachranM(2011)NaturalGasOperationsfromaPublicHealthPerspective,HumanandEcologicalRiskAssessment:AnInternationalJournal,Vol.17,Iss.5
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limits.Theirradioactivityisalsolowerthanthatoffluidsproducedbyconventionaloilorgasproduction,ornuclearpower.Intermsoffluxperunitofenergyproduced,shalegasflowbackfluidsarealsomuchlessradioactivethantheburnproductsofcoal-firedpowerstations”.ThestudyconcludesthatalthoughSGPwillbringNORMtothesurfaceandthatflowbackfluidsmustbetreated,theirradioactivityremainslowandunlikelytoposeathreattohumanhealth.24
40. Thehealthriskposedbythedifferentpotentialhazardsvaries.Somesuchasbenzeneareknown
carcinogens;someincreasetheriskofbirthdefects;whileotherscauserespiratoryandcardiovasculardisease.Theinhalationofbenzenesandxylenescanirritateeyesandtherespiratorysystemandcausedifficultyinbreathingandimpairedlungfunction.Inhalationofxylenes,benzene,andaliphatichydrocarbonscanadverselyaffectthenervoussystemwitheffectsrangingmildandtemporarydizziness,headaches,fatigue,andnumbnesstoseriouseffectsifthereisacuteandseverepoisoning.
41. Itisworthnotingthatthereisincompletescientificknowledgeabouttheriskofexposuretomanychemicalandradioactivehazards.ManyofthepotentialhazardsassociatedwithHVHFlackafulltoxicitycharacterization,andthereisevenlessknowledgeaboutthepotentialrisksassociatedwiththe‘cocktail’effectsofbeingexposedtomultiplehazardssimultaneously.25
42. Anxietyandfearaboutexposurecanalsoresultinharmstostress,anxietyandotherimpactson
emotionalwellbeing.
43. IntermsoftheoveralltoxicpotentialofSGPforelectricitygenerationintheUK,Stamfordetalestimatedittobe3-4timesworsethanconventionalgas,althoughanorderofmagnitudebetterthannuclear,solarorcoalpower.26
Riskofpollutionandexposuretohazardouspollutants
44. Theriskofpollutiondependsonmanyvariablesincluding:a)thetypeandcompositionoftheshaleformations;b)thenearbypresenceofaquifers;c)thenumberofwellsandboreholes;d)theoperatingpracticesoffrackingcompanies,includingthetypeofequipmentandtechnologyusedandthespecificconstituentsofthedrillingandhydraulicfracturingfluids;e)thesystemofregulationinplacetoensuresafety,includingthemonitoringandsurveillanceofpollution;f)leakageratesandthefrequencyofventingandflaring;andg)theadequacyoffacilitiesforthetreatmentandmanagementofflowbackfluidandotherwastematerials.
24Thefluxofradionuclidesinflowbackfluidfromshalegasexploration,DurhamUniversity,EnvironmentalScience&PollutionResearch,June201425AccordingtotheCaliforniaCouncilonScienceandTechnology(2015),astudyofalistofchemicalsthatweredisclosedbyindustryrevealedthatknowledgeofthehazardsandriskswasincompleteforalmosttwo-thirdsofthechemicals.TheCouncilnotedthatthetoxicityandbiodegradabilityofmorethanhalfthechemicalsusedinhydraulicfracturingwereun-investigated,unmeasuredandunknown.Additionally,basicinformationabouthowthesechemicalswouldmovethroughtheenvironmentwassaidtonotexist.26StamfordLandAzapagicA(2014)LifecycleenvironmentalimpactsofUKshalegas,AppliedEnergyVol134,1December2014,Pages506–518
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45. Healthrisksonlyariseifthereishumanexposuretopollutants.Themagnitudeofriskalsodependsonmanyvariablesincluding:(1)thetypeofpollutantthathumansareexposedto;(2)theamountofpollutionandlengthoftimeofexposure;(3)theageandhealthprofileofexposedpersons;(4)topographicalfeaturesandmeteorologicalconditionsthatinfluencethedispersionofpollutants;and(5)theextenttowhichhouseholdssourcetheirdrinkingwaterdirectlyfromgroundwatersources(negligibleintheUK).
E. Waterpollution
46. SGPcancausebothgroundandsurfacewaterpollution.Thesourceofpollutantsinclude:a)hydraulicfracturingfluid;b)runofffromcuttingsandotherprocessresiduesgeneratedbythedrillingofwells;c)‘flowbackfluid’,includingformationandproductionwaters;andd)naturalgasitself.
47. Waterpollutionmaymanifestindifferentways:straygascontaminationofaquifers;surface
watercontaminationfromspills,leaks,and/orthedisposalofinadequatelytreatedwastewater;andtheaccumulationoftoxicandradioactiveelementsinsoilorstreamsedimentsneardisposalsites.27
48. Accordingtoonereview,accidentsandmalfunctions,suchaswellblowouts,leakingcasings,and
spillsofdrillingfluidsorwastewater,aremorelikelytocontaminatesurfaceandgroundwatersuppliesthantheprocessofHVHFitself.28
49. AnotherreviewnotedthatevidencefromtheUSpointstothefailureofwellcementandcasing
barriersbeingthemostcommoncauseofwaterpollution;followedbysurfacespills(duetoleaks,overflowingpitsandfailuresofpitlinings)andtheaccidentalreleaseoffrackingfluidorflowback.29
50. RahmandRiha’s(2014)reviewreportedthatspillsatthesurfacewerethecauseofmost
incidentsofenvironmentalconcernincludingsomeeventswithconfirmedandsignificantimpactsonlocalwaterresources.30Theyalsoconcludedthatwhilegoodpolicyandpracticescanreducesomeriskssubstantially,significantuncertaintyremainsandthatthereisaneedformoreandlongertermwaterqualitymonitoring.
27Vengoshetal,2014.ACriticalReviewoftheRiskstoWaterResourcesfromUnconventionalShaleGasDevelopmentandHydraulicFracturingintheUnitedStates.Environ.Sci.Technol.2014,48,8334−834828AdgateJL,GoldsteinBDandMcKenzieLM,2014.PotentialPublicHealthHazards,ExposuresandHealthEffectsfromUnconventionalNaturalGasDevelopment.Environ.Sci.Technol48(15),pp8307–8320.29MassachusettsInstituteofTechnology,2011.StudyontheFutureofNaturalGas.MITEnergyInitiative.Availableat:http://mitei.mit.edu/system/files/NaturalGas_Report.pdf30RahmBandRihaS,2014.Evolvingshalegasmanagement:waterresourcerisks,impacts,andlessonslearned.Environ.Sci.:ProcessesImpacts,2014,16,1400
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51. FollowingconcernsaboutcontaminationofgroundwaterinNEPennsylvania,Reillyetal(2015)analysedsamplesfrom21drinkingwaterwellssuspectedofhavingbeencontaminated.31Samplesweretakenin2012and2013andcomparedagainstdataongroundwaterwellchemistryfromthePennsylvaniaGeologicalSurveyandtheUSGeologicalSurveyreportsfor1979–2006.Theresultsrevealedevidenceofcontaminationbyanimalwaste,septiceffluentorroadsalt,butnoindicationofcontaminationbyMarcellusshaleflowback.
52. Vidicetal(2013)describedthepotentialforleakages,blowoutsandspillstoaffectwaterquality
andreportedonlyasinglecaseoffrackingfluiddirectlycontaminatinggroundwater,butreferredtoproblemswithcommercialconfidentialityandalackofbaselinedataandresearch.32
53. Vengoshetal’sreviewofpublisheddata(throughJanuary2014)foundthatwhiledirect
contaminationofwaterresourcesbyfracturingfluidsorthefracturingprocesswasuncertain,therewassomeevidenceforstraygascontaminationofshallowaquifersandsurfacewatersinareasofintensiveshalegasdevelopment,andtheaccumulationofradiumisotopesinsomedisposalandspillsites.33Thepaperdescribedvariousinterventionsthatcouldmitigatetheserisksincludingenforcingsafezones(1km)betweenshalegassitesanddrinkingwaterwells,mandatorybaselinemonitoring,transparencyanddatasharing,azerodischargepolicyforuntreatedwastewater,establishingeffectiveremediationtechnologiesforadequatetreatmentandsafedisposalofwastewater,andlimitingtheuseoffreshwaterresourcesforshalegasdevelopmentthroughsubstitutionoralternativefluidsforhydraulicfracturing.
54. Grossetal(2013)usedindustry-reporteddatatoassessthepotentialimpactof77reported
surfacespillsongroundwatercontaminationoverayearinWeldCounty,Colorado.34Analysesforbenzene,toluene,ethylbenzeneandxyleneshowedanexceedanceoftheMaximumContaminantLevel(MCL)in90%ofcasesforbenzene,30%fortoluene,12%forethylbenzeneand8%forxylene.Giventhedelaybetweennotificationofthespillandthetakingofsamples,theauthorspostulatethatsomelevelsmayhavebeenhigheratthetimeoftheincident.Theoverallnumberofincidentsissmallincomparisontothe18,000activewells,althoughtheself-reportednatureofthedataindicatesapotentialforunder-reporting.
55. Laueretal’sstudy(2016)ofsurfacewaters(n=29)inareasimpactedbyoilandgaswastewater
spillsintheBakkenregionofNorthDakotaidentifiedelevatedconcentrationsofdissolvedsalts(Na,Cl,Br)andothercontaminants(Se,V,Pb,NH4)relativetobackgroundlevels.35Theyalso
31ReillyD,SingerD,JeffersonA,EcksteinY.2015.IdentificationoflocalgroundwaterpollutioninnortheasternPennsylvania:Marcellusflowbackornot?Environ.EarthSci.73(12):8097–810932VidicRD,BrantleySL,VandenbosscheJM,YoxtheimerD,AbadJD(2013)Impactofshalegasdevelopmentonregionalwaterquality.Science340(6134):1235009.33Vengoshetal,2014.ACriticalReviewoftheRiskstoWaterResourcesfromUnconventionalShaleGasDevelopmentandHydraulicFracturingintheUnitedStates.Environ.Sci.Technol.2014,48,8334−834834GrossSA,AvensHJ,BanducciAM,SahmelJ,PankoJM,TvermoesBE.2013.AnalysisofBTEXgroundwaterconcentrationsfromsurfacespillsassociatedwithhydraulicfracturingoperations.RJAirWasteManageAssoc63(4):424-432,doi:10.1080/10962247.2012.759166.35Laueretal,2016.BrineSpillsAssociatedwithUnconventionalOilDevelopmentinNorthDakota.Environ.Sci.Technol
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observedthatinorganiccontaminationassociatedwithbrinespillswerepersistent,withelevatedlevelsofcontaminantsobservedinspillssitesupto4yearsfollowingthespillevents.
56. Olmsteadetal(2013)assessedtheimpactofdischargedwastewateronsurfacewaterin
Pennsylvania.36ThisstudydevelopedaGeographicInformationSystems(GIS)databasefromseveralpubliclyavailablesourcesincludingtheresultsofover20,000waterqualitysamples(2000–2011),UNGlocations,consignmentsofwastetotreatmentplants,anddataonthequalityofthereceivingwaterbodies.ThesedatawereusedtomodelaverageimpactofUNGdevelopment,controllingforotherfactors.Relationshipsbetweenincreasingupstreamdensityofwastewatertreatmentplantsreleasingtreatedwastetosurfacewaterandincreaseddownstreamchlorideconcentrationswereidentified.Relationshipsbetweentheupstreamdensityofwellpadsandincreaseddownstreamtotalsuspendedsolidconcentrationswerealsoidentified.However,therewasnosignificantrelationshipbetweenwellsanddownstreamchlorideconcentrationsorbetweenwastetreatmentanddownstreamTSSconcentrations.Theresultssuggestthatupstreamshalegaswellsdonotincreasechlorideconcentrationsbutthetreatmentandreleaseofwastewaterdoes,andthatincreasesinTSSassociatedwithUNGdevelopmentmaybeduetolandclearanceforinfrastructuredevelopment.
57. Warneretal(2013b)examinedtheimpactonsurfacewaterqualityfollowingdischargeoftreatedMarcellusliquidwastes(includingUNG-derived)during2010-2012.37Samplesweretakenfromthetreatmentplanteffluentanddownstreamandupstreamwaterandsediments.Thelatter,togetherwithdatafromotherstreams,wereusedascomparators.SampleswereanalysedforarangeofparametersincludingCl,Br,Ca,Na,Sr,alkalinity,andNORMs.Levelsvariedduringthesamplingperiodwithsomeconcentrationsupto6,700timeshigherthantheconcentrationsmeasuredintheupstreamriversites.Thetotalradium(Ra)activityintheeffluentwaswellbelowtheindustrialdischargelimitalthoughsedimentlevelsadjacenttothetreatmentdischargesitewereover200timesgreaterthanbackgroundsedimentsamples.Chlorideconcentrationsaroundamiledownstreamwere2-10timeshigherthanbackground.Theauthorsconcludedthatwhiletreatmentreducesthelevelsofcontaminants,wastewatereffluentdischargetosurfacewaterhasa‘discernibleimpact’.
58. Nelsonetal’s(2015)smallstudyfoundnoevidenceofelevatedlevelsofnaturaluranium,lead-
210andpolonium-210inprivatedrinkingwellswithin2kmofalargehydraulicfracturingoperationinColoradobeforeandapproximatelyoneyearafterthestartofdrilling.38Groundwatersamplesfromthreeresidencesandsinglesamplesfromsurfacewaterandamunicipalwatersupplywereanalysed.
36OlmsteadSM,MuehlenbachsLA,ShihJ-S,ChuZ,KrupnickAJ.2013.ShalegasdevelopmentimpactsonsurfacewaterqualityinPennsylvania.PNAS110(13):4962-4967,doi:10.1073/pnas.1213871110.37WarnerNR,ChristieCA,JacksonRB,VengoshA.2013.ImpactsofshalegaswastewaterdisposalonwaterqualityinwesternPennsylvania.EnvironSciTechnol47(20):11849-11857,doi:10.1021/es402165b.38Nelsonetal,2015.Monitoringradionuclidesinsubsurfacedrinkingwatersourcesnearunconventionaldrillingoperations:ApilotstudyJournalofEnvironmentalRadioactivityDOI:10.1016/j.jenvrad.2015.01.004
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59. Drolletteetal(2015)examinedhealthandsafetycontraventionreportsandsampledprivateresidentialgroundwaterwellsinNEPennsylvania(n=62)andsouthernNewYork(n=2)between2012and2014.39Fifty-ninesampleswereanalysedforVOCsandgasolinerangehydrocarbons,and41sampleswereanalysedfordieselrangehydrocarbons.Organicandinorganicgeochemicalfingerprinting,groundwaterresidencetimesanddissolvedmethaneconcentrationswereusedtoidentifypotentialsourcesofanycontamination.Theyfoundtracelevelsofhydrocarboncontaminationinuptoaquarterofgroundwatersampleswithsignificantlyhigherlevelsinvariablyinsamplesfromwithin1kmofactiveUNGoperations.TracelevelsofVOCsincludingBTEXcompounds,wellbelowMCLs,werealsodetectedin10%ofsamples.Analysisofregulatorydatarevealedthatalmost5,800contraventionshadbeenreportedat1,729sitesinPennsylvaniabetween2007andJune2014.However,geochemicalfingerprintingdatafoundnoevidenceofupwardmigrationandwereconsistentwithcontaminationfromasurfacesource.
60. Alawattegamaetal(2015)assessedtheimpactofUNGactivityonwellwaterservingasmallPennsylvaniacommunityof190householdsbyanalysingthechemicalandmicrobiologicalqualityofwaterandcommunityperceptions.40Thestudywasconductedfollowingamajorincreaseinshalegasactivityin2011.143householdswerequestionedand57samplesfrom33wellswereanalysedforarangeofinorganicchemicals,18wellsweretestedforsixlighthydrocarbons,andbacteriatestedforin26wells.35%ofthesurveyedhouseholdsreportedperceivedchangesinthequality,tasteand/orsmellofwater.Elevatedlevelsofchloride,ironandmanganese(withthelatterexceedingtheMCLin25households)werefound.Additionally.methane(oflikelythermogenicorigin)wasidentifiedin78%ofsamplesalthoughthelevelswerelowinthemajorityofanalyses.Thefindingsarehighlysuggestiveofcontaminationfromshalegasactivity,andthestudyalsoidentifiedseveralcontraventionsincludingcompromisedwellcasingsandinadequateplugging.However,thelackofpre-drillingbaselinedatapreventsadefinitiveconclusion.
61. Heilweiletal(2015)sampledandanalysed15streamsintheMarcellusshaleplayforthepresenceofhydrocarbonsandnoble-gas.Highconcentrationsofmethaneconsistentwithanon-atmosphericsourcewerefoundinfourofthe15streams.Theisotopiccharacteristicsofdissolvedgasinonestreamwerealsosuggestiveofalocalshalesource.Modellingindicatedathermogenicmethanefluxdischargingintothisstreamwhichwasconsistentwithareportedstraygasmigrationfromanearbywell.41
39DrolletteBD,HoelzerK,WarnerNR,DarrahTH,etal.2015.ElevatedlevelsofdieselrangeorganiccompoundsingroundwaternearMarcellusgasoperationsarederivedfromsurfaceactivities.ProcNatlAcadSci,doi:10.1073/pnas.1511474112.40AlawattegamaSK,KondratyukT,KrynockR,BrickerM,RutterJK,BainDJ,StolzJF.2015.WellwatercontaminationinaruralcommunityinsouthwesternPennsylvanianearunconventionalshalegasextraction.JournalofenvironmentalscienceandhealthPartA,Toxic/hazardoussubstances&environmentalengineering50(5):516-528,doi:10.1080/10934529.2015.992684.41VictorM.Heilweil,PaulL.Grieve,ScottA.Hynek,SusanL.Brantley,D.KipSolomon,DennisW.Risser.StreamMeasurementsLocateThermogenicMethaneFluxesinGroundwaterDischargeinanAreaofShale-GasDevelopment.EnvironmentalScience&Technology,2015;150330072215005DOI:10.1021/es503882b
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62. Sharmaetal(2015)monitoredthegeochemistryofgassamplesfromsevenverticalUpperDevonian/LowerMississippiangaswells,twoverticalMarcellusShalegaswellsandsixhorizontalMarcellusShalewellstwomonthsbefore,duringand14monthsafterthefracturingofthelatter.42Theresultswereusedtoassessgasmigrationpathwaysbetweenthehydraulicallyfracturedformationandprotectedshallowundergroundsourcesofdrinkingwater.Theanalysisindicatedthatnodetectablegasmigrationhadoccurredalthoughtheauthorswerecautious,giventhelimitedsizeofthestudy,aboutgeneralisingthesefindings.
63. PelakandSharma(2014)sampled50streamsinariverbasininWestVirginiawheretherehadbeenpastcoalminingandcurrentUNGdevelopment.43GeochemicalandisotopicparametersandsamplingzonesbasedontheintensityofshaleproductionwereusedtoidentifysourcesofsalinityandtheeffectsoftheminingandUNGdevelopment.Thestudyfoundnoevidenceofsignificantcontaminationfromdeepformationbrinesthroughnaturalfaults/fractures,conventionaloilandgaswells,noranypathwayscreatedbyshalegasdrillingintheregion.Asthestudywasa‘one-timesnapshot’ofwaterquality,theauthorsrecommendedroutinemonitoringtomoreeffectivelyassessanyimpactofshalegasdrillingonwaterquality.
64. Darrahetal(2014)usednoblegasandhydrocarbontracerstodistinguishbetweennaturaland
anthropogenicsourcesofmethaneinananalysisofwatersamplesfrom113wellsintheMarcellusShaleand20wellsintheBarnettShaleduring2012/13.44Eightclustersoffugitivegascontaminationwereidentifiedwithachemicalsignaturethatsuggestedthecausetobefailuresofwellintegrity.
65. Warner(2013a)sampled127drinkingwaterwellsandcomparedthemagainstthecomposition
offlowbacksamplesfromFayettevilleShalegaswellstoassesspotentialcontaminationbystraygasorfluidmigration.45Methanewasdetectedin63%ofthedrinking-waterwellsbutisotopiccharacterisationfoundnospatialrelationshipwithsalinityoccurrencesandproximitytoshale-gasdrillingsites.
66. Fontenotetal(2013)analysedwatersamplesfrom100privatedrinkingwaterwells(95inareas
ofactivegasextractionintheBarnettShaleandfivefromareaswithnowellswithin60km).46Levelsofseveralinorganicsubstanceswerehigherinsamplestakenwithin3kmofactivegaswellscomparedtothosemoredistantfromwellsandthereferencesamples.Anumberofthe
42SharmaSetal,2015.Assessingchangesingasmigrationpathwaysatahydraulicfracturingsite:ExamplefromGreeneCounty,Pennsylvania,USA.AppliedGeochemistryVolume60:51–5843PelakandSharma,2014.SurfacewatergeochemicalandisotopicvariationsinanareaofacceleratingMarcellusShalegasdevelopment.EnvironmentalPollutionVolume195:91–10044DarrahTH,VengoshA,JacksonRB,WarnerNR,PoredaRJ.2014.Noblegasesidentifythemechanismsoffugitivegascontaminationindrinking-waterwellsoverlyingtheMarcellusandBarnettShales.PNAS111(39):14076-14081,doi:10.1073/pnas.1322107111.45WarnerNR,ChristieCA,JacksonRB,VengoshA.2013.ImpactsofshalegaswastewaterdisposalonwaterqualityinwesternPennsylvania.EnvironSciTechnol47(20):11849-11857,doi:10.1021/es402165b.46FontenotBE,HuntLR,HildebrandZL,CarltonDD,OkaH,WaltonJL,HopkinsD,OsorioA,BjorndalB,HuQH,SchugKA.2013.AnevaluationofwaterqualityinprivatedrinkingwaterwellsnearnaturalgasextractionsitesintheBarnettShaleformation.EnvironSciTechnol:doi:10.1021/es4011724.
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elevatedresultsexceededtheEPADrinkingWaterMCLincludingarsenicin32%ofsamples.TheseMCLbreacheswererandomlydistributedwithintheactivegasextractionzonesuggestingavarietyofcontributoryfactorsincludingchangesinthewatertable,activationofnaturalsources,andindustrialaccidents.Comparingtheresultswithhistoricaldatapriortogasactivitiesshowedsignificantincreasesinthemeanconcentrationandmaximumdetectedconcentrationforarsenic,seleniumandstrontium.
67. Kassotisetal(2013)reportedthatmostwatersamplesfromsiteswithconfirmeddrilling-related
incidentsexhibitedmoreoestrogenic,antioestrogenic,and/orantiandrogenicactivitythanreferencesamples.47Thirty-ninewatersamplesfromfivesiteswithareportedspillorincidentintheprevioussixyearstogetherwithfivesurfacewatersamplesfromtheColoradoRiverweretaken.Groundwaterreferencesampleswerecollectedfromanareawithnodrillingactivityandfromtwozoneswithlowactivity(≤2wellswithin1mile).Surfacewaterreferencesweretakenfromtwolocationswithnoactivity.Theyfoundthatoestrogenorandrogenreceptoractivityincreasedfromverylowindrillingsparsereferencewatersamples,tomoderateinsamplesfromtheColoradoRiver,tomoderatetohighinsamplesfromspillsites.Theauthorsrecognisedthatsucheffectscouldbeduetosourcesotherthandrilling(e.g.agriculture,animalcareandwastewatercontamination)butconsideredthesetobeextremelyunlikely.Theauthorsconcludedthattheresultssupportedanassociationbetweengasdrillingandendocrinedisruptingchemical(EDC)activityinsurfaceandgroundwaters.
68. Anindustry-supportedstudybyMolofskyetal(2013)assessedtheisotopicandmolecularcharacteristicsofhydrocarbonsinwellsinNEPennsylvaniaandconcludedthatthemethaneconcentrationswerenotnecessarilyduetomigrationofMarcellusshalegasthroughfractures.48Siegeletal(2015)alsoshowednoassociationbetweengroundwaterpollutionandshalegasactivitiesafteranalysinggroundwatersamplesfromlocationsneargaswellsandfindingnoevidenceofsystematicincreasedmethaneconcentration.49
69. TheCaliforniaCouncilonScienceandTechnology(CCST)alsofoundnorecordedincidentsofgroundwatercontaminationduetostimulation,norreleasesofhazardoushydraulicfracturingchemicalstosurfacewatersinCalifornia.ButtheCCSTalsonotedthattherehavebeenfewattemptstodetectsuchcontaminationwithtargetedmonitoring,norstudiestodeterminetheextentofcompromisedwellboreintegrity,andthatwellstimulationchemicalsmaypotentiallycontaminategroundwaterthroughavarietyofmechanisms.
70. LiandCarlson(2014)alsousedisotopiccharacterisationofproducedgasanddissolvedmethanetoexaminegroundwaterwellsintheNorthColoradoWattenbergOilandGasfieldandfoundlittlerelationship.95%ofthemethanewasofmicrobialoriginandtherewasnoassociation
47Kassotisetal,2013.EstrogenandAndrogenReceptorActivitiesofHydraulicFracturingChemicalsandSurfaceandGroundWaterinaDrilling-DenseRegion.48Molofskyetal,2013.EvaluationofMethaneSourcesinGroundwaterinNortheasternPennsylvania.GroundWater.2013May;51(3):333–349.49Siegeletal,2015.MethaneConcentrationsinWaterWellsUnrelatedtoProximitytoExistingOilandGasWellsinNortheasternPennsylvania.Environ.Sci.Technol.2015,49,4106−4112.
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betweenmethaneconcentrationsandtheproximityofoil/gaswells.50Thermogenicmethanewasdetectedintwoaquiferwellsindicatingapotentialcontaminationpathwayfromtheproducingformation,butmicrobial-origingaswasbyfarthepredominantsourceofdissolvedmethane.
71. Jacksonetal(2013)foundthat82%of141drinkingwellwatersamplesfromsitesinNE
Pennsylvaniacontainedmethaneofthermogenicorigin.Levelsofmethanewerestronglycorrelatedwithdistancetogaswells(averagemethaneconcentrationssixtimeshigherforhomes<1kmfromnaturalgaswells).51Theysuggestthatthemethanereachesshallowwellwaterthroughcasingfailuresorimperfectionsincementannulusofthegaswells.
72. Hildebrandetal(2015)assessedwhetherUnconventionalOilandGas(UOG)activityhadan
impactongroundwaterqualitybymeasuringthelevelofnaturalconstituentsandcontaminantsfroma550groundwatersamplesoverlyingtheBarnettshaleandadjacentareasofnorth-centralTexas.52Collectively,thesedataconstituteoneofthelargeststudiesofgroundwaterqualityinashaleformationassociatedwithUOGactivities.Thestudyfoundelevatedlevelsof10differentmetalsandthepresenceof19differentchemicalcompounds,includingbenzene,toluene,ethylbenzene,andxylene(BTEX)inanumberofsamples.AlthoughthefindingsdonotproveunconventionalUOGextractionasthesourceofcontamination,theydemonstratetheneedforfurthermonitoringandanalysisofgroundwaterquality.
73. In2007,awellthathadbeendrilledalmost1200mintoatightsandformationinBainbridge,
Ohiowasnotproperlysealedwithcement,allowinggasfromashalelayerabovethetargettightsandformationtotravelthroughtheannulusintoanundergroundsourceofdrinkingwater.Themethaneeventuallybuiltupuntilanexplosioninaresident‘sbasementalertedstateofficialstotheproblem.53
74. Osbornetal(2011),foundevidenceofmethanecontaminationofdrinkingwaterassociated
withshalegasextractioninnorth-easternPennsylvania.Theaverageandmaximummethaneconcentrationsincreasedwithproximitytothenearestgaswellandwerehighenoughtobeapotentialexplosionhazard.54Chemicalanalysisconfirmedthemethaneasbeingthermogenic
50LiH,CarlsonKH.2014.DistributionandoriginofgroundwatermethaneintheWattenbergoilandgasfieldinnorthernColorado.EnvironSciTechnol48(3):1484-1491,doi:10.1021/es404668b.51JacksonRBetal,2013.IncreasedstraygasabundanceinasubsetofdrinkingwaterwellsnearMarcellusshalegasextraction52HildebrandZL,etal,2015.AComprehensiveAnalysisofGroundwaterQualityinTheBarnettShaleRegion.Environ.Sci.Technol.2015,49,8254−826253OhioDeptofNaturalResources2008.ReportontheinvestigationofthenaturalgasinvasionofaquifersinBainbridgeTownshipofGeaugaCounty,Ohio.54OsbornSG,VengoshA,WarnerNRandJacksonRB,2011.Methanecontaminationofdrinkingwateraccompanyinggas-welldrillingandhydraulicfracturing.PNAS,8172–8176,doi:10.1073/pnas.1100682108
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andcomingfromtheshaleextractionsites.Thestudyfoundnoevidenceofcontaminationwithdeepsalinebrinesorfracturingfluids.
75. Siegelel(2015)respondedtotheOsbornetal’sresultswithananalysisofadatasetof11,300pre-drillingsamplesofdomesticwellwaterinthevicinityof661oilandgaswells(92%unconventionallydrilled)takenbetween2009and2011.55Theyfoundnostatisticallysignificantassociationbetweenmethanelevelsinwellwaterandproximitytopre-existingoilorgaswells.
76. Kohletal(2014)assessedsamplesofproducedwatersfromsixwellsintheMarcellusShaleplay
andanearbyspringoveraperiodfourmonthspriorto,and14monthsafter,hydraulicfracturingandfoundnoevidenceofmigrationofproducedwatersorcontaminationofgroundwater.56
Groundwatercontamination
77. Thefearofgroundwaterpollutionisaprominentfeatureofpublicconcernsoverfracking.IntheUK,thespatialcorrespondencebetweenpotentialshalereservoirsandproductiveaquifershasheightenedsuchconcern.
78. Theindustry-fundedTaskForceonShaleGasalsorecognisesthatthereisariskofaquifer
contaminationandrecommendsthatriskassessmentsofaquifercontaminationarecarriedoutwheneverappropriate,andthatthedetailofthisassessmentincreasesastheseparationdistancebetweenthefrackzoneandtheaquiferdecreases.Italsorecommendsthatoperatorsbe“requiredtomonitorthesizeoffracturesinUKwellssothatovertimeamorecompletestatisticalpictureisbuiltup,toassisttheongoingassessmentofaquifercontamination”.57
79. Understandingthescientificliteratureontherisksofgroundwatercontaminationishelpedbymakingafewcleardistinctions.First,thepotentialsourcesofcontaminationincludedifferentprocesses:a)hydraulicfracturingwhichtakesplacemorethanathousandmetresbelowtheground;b)drillingandinjectingfluiddownthewell;andc)producinggas(accompaniedbyproductionandformationwaters)upthewell.Second,groundwatermaybepollutedbybothgas(e.g.methane)andliquid(i.e.frackingfluid,andproductionorformationwaters).Finally,thepathwayforthepollutionofshallowgroundwatermayinclude:a)directpathwaysfromthetargetformation(viafracturesorfaults);b)pathwaysfromthewellcausedbyafailureofwellintegrity;andc)spillsandleakagesofwastewateratthesurfacewhichseepintotheground.
55Siegeletal,2015.MethaneConcentrationsinWaterWellsUnrelatedtoProximitytoExistingOilandGasWellsinNortheasternPennsylvania.Environ.Sci.Technol.,2015,49(7),pp4106–411256Kohletal,2014,StrontiumIsotopeTestLongTermZonalIsolationofInjectedandMarcellusFormationWaterafterHydraulicFracturing,EnvironSciTechnol2014,48:9867-987357TaskForceonShaleGas.Secondreport:Assessingtheimpactofshalegasonthelocalenvironmentandhealth.
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80. AccordingtoAdgateetal(2014),“theevidenceforcontaminationofgroundwaterwellswithmethane,fracturingchemicals,orotherprocesswastesismixed”.58WhereassociationshavebeenfoundbetweenUNGanddrinkingwatercontamination,alackofbaselinedataonwaterqualitypriortoUNGdevelopmenthavepreventedfirmconclusionsfrombeingdrawn.
81. Thereishoweversomeevidencethatshalegasextractionresultingingroundwaterpollution,
includingsourcesusedtosupplydrinkingwater.Inparticular,thereisstrongevidenceofcaseswherebothfluidandgashaveleakedasaresultoffailureofwellintegrityandpermeablepathwaysbetweenthewellandaquifersallowingforthecontaminationofgroundwater.
82. Osbornetal(2011)discussthreepossiblemechanismsforfluidmigrationintotheshallow
drinking-wateraquifers:a)upwardmigrationfromthetargetformation;b)leakygas-wellcasings,withmethanepassinglaterallyandverticallythroughfracturesystems;andc)theprocessofhydraulicfracturingitselfgeneratingnewfracturesorenlargingexistingonesabovethetargetformation,increasingtheconnectivityofthefracturesystemandallowingmethanetopotentiallymigrateupwardthroughthefracturesystem.59Theauthorsthinkthefirstisunlikely,butthattheothertwopathwaysarepossible.Theyalsonotethatseveralmodelshavebeendevelopedtoexplainhowgascanberapidlytransportverticallyfromdepthtothesurface,includingpressure-drivencontinuousgas-phaseflowthroughdryorwater-saturatedfracturesanddensity-drivenbuoyancyofgasmicrobubblesinaquifersandwater-filledfractures,butthatmoreresearchisneededtodeterminethemechanism(s)underlyingthehighermethaneconcentrationsobserved.
83. Ingeneral,theriskofcontaminantsfromthefrackingzonedirectlyreachingaquifersis
consideredbygeoscientiststoberemotebecauseofthedepthatwhichfrackingoccurs,thedistancebetweentheshalegasproductionzoneanddrinkingwatersources,thepresenceofimpermeablelayersofrockbetweentheshalegasproductionzoneanddrinkingwatersourcesandbecausefracturepropagationcausedbyHVHFrarelyextendsbeyond600m(andoftenmuchless60)abovewellperforations.6162636465
58AdgateJL,GoldsteinBDandMcKenzieLM,2014.PotentialPublicHealthHazards,ExposuresandHealthEffectsfromUnconventionalNaturalGasDevelopment.Environ.Sci.Technol48(15),pp8307–832059Osborn,Vengosh,WarnerandJackson,2011.Methanecontaminationofdrinkingwateraccompanyinggas-welldrillingandhydraulicfracturing.PNAS108(20):8172–817660Verdon(inSolidEarthDiscussionsdebate):hydraulicfracturesrarelyextendmorethanabout50mabovetheinjectionzones,andinthemostextremecaseshaveonlypropagatedafewhundredmetresabovetheinjectionzone,evenwheretheyhaveintersectedpre-existingfaults.61AEATechnology,SupporttotheidentificationofpotentialrisksfortheenvironmentandhumanhealtharisingfromhydrocarbonsoperationsinvolvinghydraulicfracturinginEurope.ReportfortheEuropeanCommissionDGEnvironment2012.62Daviesetal,2014.Oilandgaswellsandtheirintegrity:Implicationsforshaleandunconventionalresourceexploitation.MarineandPetroleumGeology56(2014)239e25463Vengoshetal,2014.ACriticalReviewoftheRiskstoWaterResourcesfromUnconventionalShaleGasDevelopmentandHydraulicFracturingintheUnitedStates.Environ.Sci.Technol.2014,48,8334−834864FlewellingSA;TymchakMP;WarpinskiN.Hydraulicfractureheightlimitsandfaultinteractionsintightoilandgasformations.Geophys.Res.Lett.2013,40(14),3602−3606.
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84. Evenifapathwayexists,subsurfacedrivingforcesarelikelytobeinsufficienttodirecttheflow
ofgasandfluidsupwardsandcontaminateaquifers.FlewellingandSharma(2014)notethathavingbothstrongupwardgradientsandsignificantlypermeablepathwaystodriveupwardmigrationisunlikely.66Engelderetal(2014)alsodescribethatvariousgeo-physicalforces(e.g.capillaryandosmoticforces)aremorelikelytoresultinfracturingfluidandformationwaterbeingsequesteredintheshaleformationratherthanbeingtransportedupward.67
85. However,somescientistsremainconcernedaboutthepossibilityofcontaminationvia
permeablepathwaysbetweenthefrackingzoneandaquifers.68Suchpathwaysmaybenatural(permeablefracturesorfaults)orartificial(abandoned,degraded,poorlyconstructed,orfailingwells).69
86. Smythe(2016)hasarguedintheonlinejournalSolidEarthDiscussionsthatthepresenceof
naturalfaults(asopposedtotheartificialfracturescausedbyfracking)andthepossibilityofupwardflowfromthetargetzonemakethecontaminationofgroundwateragreaterriskthaniscommonlyaccepted.70
87. AccordingtoSmythe,modellingstudiesconfirmthatfluidfromthefrackedshalemayusefaults
asanupwardmigrationroutetoaquifers.Theestimatedtransittimesforreachingthenear-surfacevaryconsiderably,rangingfromtentoathousandyearsinthecaseofliquid;butintheorderofhourstohundredsofdaysinthecaseofgas.Smythequotesliteraturethatheclaimshelpstosubstantiatehisargument.7172737475
65WarnerNR,JacksonRB,DarrahTH,OsbornSG,etal.GeochemicalevidenceforpossiblenaturalmigrationofMarcellusFormationbrinetoshallowaquifersinPennsylvania.Proc.Natl.Acad.Sci.U.S.A.2012,109(30),11961−11966.66FlewellingSAandSharmaM.Constraintsonupwardmigrationofhydraulicfracturingfluidandbrine.GroundWater2013,52(1),9-19.67Engelderetal,2014.Thefateofresidualtreatmentwateringasshale.JournalofUnconventionalOilandGasResources7(2014)33–4868SeeRozellandReavenquotingreferences44,45,46,47,48,49and50.69Reagan,Moridis,KeenandJohnson(2015),Numericalsimulationoftheenvironmentalimpactofhydraulicfracturingoftight/shalegasreservoirsonnear-surfacegroundwater:Background,basecases,shallowreservoirs,short-termgas,andwatertransport,WaterResour.Res.,51,doi:10.1002/2014WR016086.70SmytheD,2016.Hydraulicfracturinginthickshalebasins:problemsinidentifyingfaultsintheBowlandandWealdBasins,UK.SolidEarthDiscuss.,doi:10.5194/se-2015-134,ManuscriptunderreviewforjournalSolidEarth71MyersT.Potentialcontaminantpathwaysfromhydraulicallyfracturedshalestoaquifers.GroundWater50,no.6:872–882.DOI:10.1111/j.1745-6584.2012.00933.x,2012.72NorthrupJL.Potentialleaksfromhighpressurehydrofrackingofshale,September8,201073BicalhoCC,Batiot-GuilheC,SeidelJL,VanExterS,andJourdeH.Geochemicalevidenceofwatersourcecharacterizationandhydrodynamicresponsesinakarstaquifer,http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169412003733,201274Gassiat,C.,Gleeson,T.,Lefebvre,R.,andMcKenzie,J.:Hydraulicfracturinginfaultedsedimentarybasins:Numericalsimulationofpotentiallongtermcontaminationofshallowaquifers,WaterResour.Res.,49(12),8310-8327,doi:10.1002/2013WR014287,2013.
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88. Inhispaper,SmythearguesthatacaseofgroundwatercontaminationinBradfordCounty,
Pennsylvaniasupportshisconcernthatfaultsareanimportantriskfactor.Hearguesthatthecontaminationofdrinkingwaterwascausedbypassageoffrackfluidand/orproducedwaterinpartthroughthegeology.
89. ThecaseconcernsthedrillingoffivewellsinBradfordCountyin2009and2010byChesapeakeEnergy.Contaminationofprivatewaterwellswithstraygasinthevicinity(1200maway)startedalmostimmediately,andwasfollowedbythePennsylvaniaDepartmentofEnvironmentalProtectionfiningthecompany$900,000.Thecompanydrilledthreenewwaterwellstoreplacethreeexistingwells,butthecontaminationcontinued,whichincludedwhitefoaminthewaterwells,vapourintrusioninthebasementofahouse,andbubblingofgasintheSusquehannaRiver.InJune2012thehomeownerswonacivilcaseagainstthecompany,whichhadtobuythepropertiesandcompensatetheowners.
90. SmythealsoarguesthatEnglishshalebasinsareconsiderablythickerthantheirUScounterparts,
andcharacterisedbypervasiveandcomplexfaults,someofwhichextendupwardsfromtheshaletooutcrop.AccordingtoSmythe,UKshalebasinsarecharacterisedbyhavingmajor‘through-penetratingfaults’andthatthepresenceofpermeablecoverrocksinsomeareasmeanthatthereisaninadequatesealforpreventionofupwardmigrationofwastewatersandgasfromanyfutureunconventionalshalegassite.76Incontrast,hearguesthatitisextremelyrareforfaultstoextenduptooutcropinUSshalebasins.HealsocriticisesthejointreviewoffrackingforshalegasbytheRoyalSocietyandRoyalAcademyofEngineering(2012)fornotaddressingthepotentialproblemofthrough-penetratingfaultsinUKshalebasins.
91. TheviewsofSmythehavebeenchallengedbymanyexpertsincludingauthorsofpapersthathe
hasusedtosupporthiscase,leadingtoalivelyandheatedonlinedebateinSolidEarthDiscussions.
92. AccordingtoYounger,faultsare‘hydro-geologicallyambiguous’andwhilesomemaypresent
permeablezones(mostnotablywheretheycutrelativelyhardrockssuchassandstone,limestoneorigneous/metamorphiclithologies);manyserveasbarrierstoflow.Furthermore,evenwhereoptimumconditionsexistforfaultstodisplaypermeability,itisrareforthistobecontinuousoverlargeverticalintervals.
93. Youngerarguesthatevenifoneweretobelievethatfaultscuttingthickshalesequences(contrarytocommonexperience)arepermeablethroughouttheverticalextent,theriskofactualgroundwatercontaminationislowbecauseahydraulicgradientthatfavourstheupflow
75Lefebvre,R.,Gleeson,T.,McKenzie,,J.M.,andGassiat,C.:ReplytocommentbyFlewellingandSharmaon‘‘Hydraulicfracturinginfaultedsedimentarybasins:Numericalsimulationofpotentialcontaminationofshallowaquifersoverlongtimescales,’’WaterResour.Res.51,1877–1882,doi:10.1002/2014WR016698.76VerdonandananonymousreviewerinSolidEarthDiscussionsarguethatSmythe’sclaimsaboutcomplexandpervasivefaultingintheUKrelativetotheUSisnotsubstantiated.
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ofwater(andanypollutants)toshallowaquifersinthecontextoffrackingisunlikely.Ifanything,thedepressurisationofwellstoallowgastoenterthemduringtheproductionphaseresultsindownwardgradientsoverperiodsofyearstodecades.Evenafterthecessationofproduction(whenactivedepressurisationhasbeensuspended),there-establishmentofanupwardgradientisunlikelytoresultinsignificantupflowoveranythinglessthangeologicaltime.Andeveniffaultsarepermeablethroughouttheirverticalextentandsubjectedtosustainedupwardhydraulicgradients,Youngerarguesthattheloadingofpollutantswouldbeinsufficienttomakeadetectabledifferencetotheoverlyingaquifergroundwater.
94. Llewellynetal’sstudyoftheBradfordCountrycaseconcludedthatthemostlikelycausesourceofthecontaminationofdrinkingwellswasstraynaturalgasanddrillingorHVHFcompoundsbeingdriven1–3kmalongshallowtointermediatedepthfracturestotheaquifer.77Theynotedthatcontaminationduetofluidsreturningupwardfromdeepstratawouldbesurprisinggiventhatthetimerequiredtotravel2kmupfromtheshalewouldlikelybethousandstomillionsofyears,andbecausethechemicalcompositionofthedrinkingwatersshowedanabsenceofsaltsthatwouldbediagnosticoffluidscomingfromtheshale.Thedataimplicatefluidsflowingverticallyalonggaswellboreholesandthenthroughintersectingshallowtointermediateflowpathsviabedrockfractures.SuchflowislikelywhenfluidsaredrivenbyhighannulargaspressureorpossiblybyhighpressuresduringHVHFinjection.
95. Verdonalsoarguesthatiffluidshavepropagatedupwardsfromdepth,themigrationpathway
wouldbethepoorly-cementedwellbore,andthatfaultsand/orfracturesonlyprovideapathwayforfluidmigrationintheupper300morsoofthesubsurfacewherecompressivestressesarelow.Verdonalsostateswhileitispossible(evencommon)thatahydraulicfracturewillintersectafault,ifandwhenitdoesso,theeasiestflowpathwayintermsofpermeabilitywillbealongtheproppedfracturesandintotheproductionwell.
96. AnotherstudywhichconsistedofanexperimentwhereafaultedsectionofMarcellusShalewasfrackedusingfluidscontainingchemicaltracers(whichallowedthetrackingofsubsurfacefluidmovement),foundnoevidenceofupwardfluidmigrationorhydraulicconnectionfromtheshaletooverlyinglayers,despitetheinteractionbetweenhydraulicfracturesandfaults.78However,Smythearguesthatthestudydidnotexamineageologicalsituationwith‘through-penetratingfaults’andthereforehasnodirectrelevancetohisargument.
97. AfurtherpointofdebateraisedbySmytheconcernstheimportanceofidentifyingfaultsbefore
andduringdrilling.Hearguesthatbeforeanyfrackingtakesplace,faultsshouldbethoroughlymappedanda'setback'distancebeestablishedbetweenthefrackzoneandthenearestfaults.
77LlewellynGTetal,2015.EvaluatingagroundwatersupplycontaminationincidentattributedtoMarcellusShalegasdevelopmentPNAS|May19,2015|vol.112|no.20|6325–633078HammackR,HarbertW,SharmaSetal,2014.AnEvaluationofFractureGrowthandGas/FluidMigrationasHorizontalMarcellusShaleGasWellsareHydraulicallyFracturedinGreeneCounty,Pennsylvania;NETL-TRS-3-2014;EPActTechnicalReportSeries;U.S.DepartmentofEnergy,NationalEnergyTechnologyLaboratory.
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However,accordingtohim,identificationoffaultswithinathickshalesequencesuchastheBowland-HodderUnitisdifficult,andcannotalwaysbeguaranteed.
98. TheissueoffaultsintheUKisunderlinedbytheexperienceoftheonlyshalewelltohavebeen
frackedintheUK:PreeseHallinLancashirewhichwasfrackedin2011byCuadrillatotesttheshaleandwhichtriggeredearthquakes.AccordingtoSmythe,analysesoftwoindependentdatasets–a3Dseismicsurveyandwellboredeformation–demonstratethatthefaultonwhichtheearthquakesweretriggered,wastransectedbythewellbore.Furthermore,hepointsoutthatthesedatacontradicttheinitialconclusionoftheoperatorwhichclaimedthatthetriggeredfaultlayhundredsofmetresawayfromthewellbore.
99. Smythealsodescribeshowin2014intheWealdBasininSussex(Balcombe-2),Cuadrilladrilleda
horizontalwellalonga40mthicklimestonesandwichedbetweentwooil-proneshalelayersandintersectedtwonormalfaultswhichhadnotbeenforeseenbytheoperator.
100. SmythearguesthatitisunacceptablethatcurrentUKregulationspermitthedrillingoffaults
(iftheyareidentified)eitherverticallyorhorizontallybecausecementbondingofthecasing,eitherinthedeviationzoneorinthehorizontalsectionofthewell,wouldbedifficulttoachieve.79AsshownatPreeseHall,awellthatpenetratesafaultcanbedeformedbyseismicactivitytriggeredbyHVHFandincreasethechanceoftheintegrityofthewellborebeingdegraded.
101. Haszeldineconcludesthatfaults(andfractures)mayactasaconduitforbothfluidsandgas
toaquifersathighersubsurfacelevelsfromthewellboreinthecaseofconcurrentwellintegrityfailureandagreesthatthepotentialforfaultstoactasleakageconduitsismorelikelyinintenselyfaultedbasins.Healsostatesthatgeoscientificinvestigationsmayhavefailedtorecognisethesepotentialhazardsaheadofdrillingandafterfrackingandthattherearelegitimatequestionstobeaskedaboutsubsurfaceevaluationcompetenceandtheabilitytorecognisefaultsbeforeorafterdrilling;theadequacyofcurrentlegacyinformationtopositionfrackingboreholes;andthestateofknowledgeoffluidandgasflowalongfaultspenetratingtowardsthelandsurface.
102. HeagreesthatregulatoryoversightofdrillingapplicationsandindustrialactivityappearstobeinadequateandthatsomeofinformationandinsightscontainedinSmythe’scasestudiesare“remarkableandevenshockingasexamplesofhowcurrentpracticehasnotproducedanythingliketechnicallyadequateassuranceofhighqualityforUKcitizens”.Inhisview,“theobservationsmade,ofpressureleakageatPreeseHall,andofbasicsubsurfaceignoranceandtechnicallybadseismicprocessingatFernhurstandWisboroughGreenareshocking,andcouldbeinvestigatedformandatorycleanup”.
79Theeccentricityofthedrillcasingwithrespecttotheboreholemeansthatitishardtoflushoutdrillingmud,andasubsequentcementjobmaythenfailbecausetheresultingcement-mudslurrydoesnotmakenotasoundbond.
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103. Westaway,oneofSmythe’sstrongestcritics,arguesthatwhathappenedatPreeseHallwouldnotbepermittedintheUKinthefutureasall‘stakeholders’accepttheneedtodothingsdifferently.80However,heagreesthattheactionsofCuadrillaatPreeseHallwerefarfromideal,81andthattherewerealsoproblemsaboutthereleaseofdataabouttheincident.Accordingtohim,‘somethingisclearlyfundamentallywrongwiththepresentarrangementsforimplementingtheUKgovernment’spublicallystatedcommitmenttoopendisclosureanddiscussionofdatapertainingtoshalegasdevelopment’.
104. AlthoughHaszeldinedoesnotthinkthatthereisacompellingcasefordeepwatersbeing
broughtuptothesurfacealongsteeplydippingfaults,heagreesthatthisisworthyofgreaterinvestigation,especiallyastheconsequencesmaybeseriousfordrinkingwatersupplies.Healsostatesthatwhiletheupwardmigrationoffluidsfromthefrackingzonetoaquifersisunlikely,gasascentthroughpathwaysalongorparalleltofaultplanesispossible.Inshort,faultscouldactasconduitsforfugitivegasemissionsfromfrackedbasins.
I.Wellintegrity
105. Asnotedabove,pollutioncanoccurthroughleakywells,duringdrillingandcasing,andevenafterwellshavebeensealedandabandoned.8283Thelossofwellintegritycanpotentiallyleadtodirectemissionsofgastotheatmosphereand/orsubsurfacemigrationofgasand/orliquidtogroundwater,surfacewatersortheatmosphere.8485Undercertainconditions,leaksthatcontinueundetectedorareinadequatelyremediedmayalsoleadtotheaccumulationofexplosivegases.
106. Drillersusesteelcasing(pipes),cementbetweennestedcasingsandbetweentheoutside
casingandrockwall,aswellasmechanicaldevicestokeepfluidsandgasinsidethewell.
107. Thecausesoflossofwellintegrityincludefailureofthecementorcasingsurroundingthewellboreandanimproperlysealedannulus.Cementbarriersmayfailatanytimeoverthelifeof
80Westaway2016a.Interactivecommenton:Hydraulicfracturinginthickshalebasins:problemsinidentifyingfaultsintheBowlandandWealdBasins,UK"bySmytheDK.SolidEarthDiscussions,se-2015-134,SC281Forexample,Westawaystatesthattheinducedseismicityshouldhavebeendetectedearlier(byapplyingaseriesofstandardtests)sothatfrackingcouldhavebeenstoppedratherthancontinuingforalmosttwomonthsuntilbeing‘voluntarily’terminatedjustbeforetheUKgovernmentimposedamoratorium.Inaddition,thein-situstressdatasetcollectedduringdrillingshouldhavebeenanalysedbeforethefrackingbegan,ratherthanafterwards,asthiswouldhaveshownthatfaultsinthevicinitywerealreadystressedandthatfrackingmightinduceseismicity.82KissingerA,HelmigR,EbigboA,ClassH,etal.Hydraulicfracturinginunconventionalgasreservoirs:risksinthegeologicalsystem,part2.Environ.EarthSci.2013,70,3855−387383Vengoshetal,2014.AcriticalreviewoftheriskstowaterresourcesfromunconventionalshalegasdevelopmentandhydraulicfracturingintheUnitedStates.Environmentalscience&technology48.15:8334-48.84Ingraffeaetal2014.AssessmentandriskanalysisofcasingandcementimpairmentinoilandgaswellsinPennsylvania,2000–2012.PNAS111(30):10955–1096085StuartME,2011.PotentialgroundwaterimpactfromexploitationofshalegasintheUK.BritishGeologicalSurveyOpenReport,OR/12/001.
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awellforvariousreasonsincludinginappropriatecementdensity,inadequatelycleanedboreholes,prematuregelationofthecement,excessivefluidlossinthecement,highpermeabilityinthecementslurry,cementshrinkage,radialcrackingduetopressurefluctuationsinthecasings,poorinterfacialbonding,andnormaldeteriorationwithage.86Casingmayfailduetofailedcasingjoints,casingcollapseandcorrosion.87
108. Theriskoflossofwellintegrityincreaseswithageassteelcorrodes,andascementshrinks,
cracksordisbondsfromthecasingandrock.Factorsthatincreasetheriskoflossofwellintegrityinclude:unconventionalandhorizontalwells;wellsbeinglongerandcurvinglaterally;wellsbeingexposedtomoreintensehydraulicpressuresandlargerwatervolumes;theadoptionofpoorpracticesbycompanies(wellsbeingdrilledduringboomperiodsintheUShaveledtooperatorscuttingcornersinanattempttomaximisethenumberofwellsdrilled).8889Drillingthroughstratawithpervasiveandcomplexfaultsalsoincreasestheriskofwelldamageandintegrityfailure.
109. Thestructuralintegrityfailurerateofoilandgaswellbarriersisasubjectofdebate.
110. AccordingtoDaviesetal,datafromaroundtheworldindicatethatmorethanfourmillion
onshorehydrocarbonwellshavebeendrilledglobally.Intheirassessmentofallreliabledatasetsonwellbarrierandintegrityfailure(includingproduction,injection,idleandabandonedwells,aswellasbothonshoreandoffshorewells,exploitingbothconventionalandunconventionalreservoirs),theyfounddatasetsthatvariedconsiderablyintermsofthenumberofwellsexamined,theirageandtheirdesigns.Theyfoundthatthepercentageofwellswithsomeformofwellbarrierorintegrityfailurewashighlyvariable,rangingfrom1.9%to75%.90
111. IntheUS,becauseofthelackofpubliclyavailablestructuralintegritymonitoringrecordsfor
onshorewellsfromindustry,studieshavereliedondatafromstatewellinspectionrecordstoestimatetheproportionofunconventionalwellsthatdevelopcementand/orcasingstructuralintegrityissues.
112. Davies’ownassessmentofunconventionalwellsinPennsylvaniaindicatedthat6.26%had
wellbarrierorintegrityfailure,and1.27%leakedtothesurface.
113. Ingraffeaetal’sanalysisof75,505compliancereportsfor41,381conventionalandunconventionaloilandgas(O&G)wellsinPennsylvaniadrilledfromJanuary2000andDecember2012foundasixfoldhigherincidenceofcementand/orcasingissuesforshalegaswellsrelative
86BonnettA,PafitisD(1996)Gettingtotherootofgasmigration.OilfieldReview8(1):36–49.87Ingraffeaetal2014.AssessmentandriskanalysisofcasingandcementimpairmentinoilandgaswellsinPennsylvania,2000–2012.PNAS111(30):10955–1096088Daviesetal,2014.Oilandgaswellsandtheirintegrity:Implicationsforshaleandunconventionalresourceexploitation.MarineandPetroleumGeology56(2014)239e25489Jackson2014.Theintegrityofoilandgaswells.PNAS111(30):10902–1090390DaviesRJ,AlmondS,WardRS,JacksonRBetal,2014.Oilandgaswellsandtheirintegrity:Implicationsforshaleandunconventionalresourceexploitation.MarineandPetroleumGeology56(2014)239e254
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toconventionalwells.91Overall,between0.7%and9.1%oftheO&Gwellsdevelopedsince2000showedalossofwellintegrity.Thewell-barrierorintegrityfailurerateforunconventionalwellswas6.2%.Themostcommoncauseswere“defective,insufficientorimproperlyinstalled”cementorcasing.
114. Thesamestudyalsoidentifiedtemporalandgeographicdifferencesinrisk.Temporal
differencesmayreflectmorethoroughinspectionsandgreateremphasisonfindingwellleaks,moredetailednotetakingintheavailableinspectionreports,orrealchangesinratesofstructuralintegritylossduetorusheddevelopmentorotherunknownfactors.ThepredictedcumulativeriskforallwellsintheNEregionofPennsylvaniawas8.5-foldgreaterthanwellsdrilledintherestofthestate.
115. InConsidineetal’sanalysisofrecordsfromthePennsylvaniaDepartmentofEnvironmental
Protectionfrom2008to2011,between1%and2%ofwellshadoneormorepotentialstructuralintegrityissuesreportedduringthattimeperiod.92Anotherstudyusingdatafrom2008to2013foundthat3.4%ofallmonitoredunconventionalwellsdrilledinPennsylvaniamighthavestructuralintegrityfailuresrelatedtocement/casingintegrity.93However,boththesestudiesarelimitedbytheinadequacyofthefrequencyandcompletenessofstateinspectionsasabasisforaccountingforallincidencesofcement/casingfailure.
116. FewdataexistinthepublicdomainforthefailureratesofonshorewellsinEurope.ItisalsounclearwhichoftheavailabledatasetswouldprovidethemostappropriateanaloguesforwellbarrierandintegrityfailureratesatshalegasproductionsitesintheUKandEurope.94
117. IntheUK,theintegrityfailureratesofonshore(conventional)oilandgaswellsarelargely
unknown.Daviesetal(2011)noteasmallnumberofreportedpollutionincidentsassociatedwiththefewexistingactiveonshore(conventional)wellsandnonewithinactiveabandonedwells.Theystatethatthiscouldindicatethatpollutionisnotacommonevent,butwarnthatmonitoringofabandonedwellsdoesnottakeplaceintheUKandthatlessvisiblepollutantssuchasmethaneareunlikelytobereported.Thus“wellintegrityfailuremaybemorewidespreadthanthepresentlylimiteddatashow”.
118. Theycallformoreresearch(e.g.asurveyofthesoilsaboveabandonedwellsitestoestablishingwhetherthereisalossofintegrityandfluid/gasmigrationfollowingwell
91IngraffeaAR,WellsMT,SantoroRL,ShonkoffSBC,2014.AssessmentandriskanalysisofcasingandcementimpairmentinoilandgaswellsinPennsylvania,2000–2012.ProcNatlAcadSciUSA111:10955–10960.92ConsidineT,WatsonR,ConsidineN,MartinJ(2012)EnvironmentalImpactsDuringMarcellusShaleGasDrilling:Causes,Impacts,andRemedies.Report2012-1ShaleResourcesandSocietyInstitute(StateUniversityofNewYork,Buffalo,NY)93VidicRD,BrantleySL,VandenbosscheJM,YoxtheimerD,AbadJD(2013)Impactofshalegasdevelopmentonregionalwaterquality.Science340(6134):1235009.94Daviesetal,2014.Oilandgaswellsandtheirintegrity:Implicationsforshaleandunconventionalresourceexploitation
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abandonment),amechanismforfundingrepairsonorphanedwells,andanownershiporliabilitysurveyofexistingwells.
F. Wastewatermanagement
119. Asnotedearlier,oneofthehazardsassociatedwithSGPisthevolumeandleveloftoxicityoffluidthatisbroughttothesurface.
120. Optionsformanaginglargevolumes95ofhazardousflowbackfluidandwastewateronthesurfaceincludethereuseofflowbackfluidforfurtherhydraulicfracturing;on-siteoroff-sitewastewatertreatmentfollowedbydischarge;anddeepwellinjection.
121. Initiallyflowbackfluidreturnstothesurfaceinlargevolumesandcloselyreflectsthecompositionoffrackingfluid.Later,whenthewellisproducinggas,formationandproducedwatersarereturnedinlowervolumes,butwithhigherconcentrationsofheavymetals,NORMandothercontaminantsfromtheshale.ThismaycontinueformonthsafterHVHF.Inthisreport,boththeinitialflowbackfluidandthesubsequentproducedorformationwaterareconsideredtogetheraswastewater.
122. Highlevelsofcontaminationandpollutantsinwastewater,andparticularlyradioactive
NORM,requirespecialisedtreatmentfacilitiesbeforetheycanbesafelydisposed.Theactualcompositionofwastewaterfluidisanimportantfactor.Forexample,highlevelsofdissolvedsaltsrequiredistillation(whichisgenerallyexpensivebecauseofthehighenergyinputs)orreverseosmosisbeforethewastewatercanbesafelydisposedof.
123. IntheUS,themanagementofwastewaterincludesstorageinopenpits;deepwellinjection
(reinjectingwastewaterintotheground);transportationtotreatmentfacilitiesfollowedbydisposal;andon-sitetreatmentwithsomere-useofwateranddisposalofremainingliquidsandsolids.Althoughsomewelloperatorsrecycleandreuseflowbackfluidforhydraulicfracturing,manyoperatorsdonotduetothecostofseparationandfiltration.96DeepwellinjectionandstorageinopenpitsispresentlynotanoptionintheUK.Neitheris.
124. DifficultieswithwastewatertreatmentthathavebeenreportedintheUSincludethelackof
treatmentplantcapacityortechnology97andthedifficultyinpredictingthecontentand
95TheInstitutionofCivilEngineersestimatethatasinglewellcouldproducebetween7,500to18,750m3offlowbackannually.SeewrittensubmissiontoEnvironmentalAuditCommittee:EnvironmentalRisksofFrackingEnquiry(FRA070),para2.1.96RozellDJandReavenSJ(2012).WaterpollutionriskassociatedwithnaturalgasextractionfromtheMarcellusShale.RiskAnal32(8):1382–93.97J.M.Wilson,J.M.VanBriesen,2012.OilandgasproducedwatermanagementandsurfacedrinkingwatersourcesinPennsylvaniaEnviron.Pract.,14(2012),pp.288–300
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compositionoffluidbroughtuptothesurface.98SomeUSmunicipalwastewatertreatmentfacilitieshavestruggledtohandlewastewatercontaininghighconcentrationsofsaltsorradioactivity.99Thepollutionofsomerivershasalsobeenassociatedwithmunicipalwastewatertreatmentfacilitiesnotbeingabletohandlewastewaterwithhighconcentrationsofsaltsorradioactivity.100
125. IntheUK,issuesaboutwastewatermanagementbecameapparentduringthePublicInquiry
intoCuadrilla’sappealagainstLancashire’sdecisiontorejectplanningapplicationsfortwoexploratoryshalegaswells(inRoseacreWoodandPrestonNewRoad).101
126. OneoftheissueswasthelimitedcapacityandavailabilityoftreatmentfacilitiesintheUK.
Constraintsontreatmentcapacitybecamegreaterwhenachangeinlawdesignatedwastewaterasalowlevelradioactivesubstancewhichexcludesordinarysewagetreatmentworksasaviableoption.
127. InWatson’sevidencetotheLancashirePublicInquiry,henotesthattheGovernmenthas
beenunabletoconfirmtheexistenceofadequatetreatmentcapacityintheeventofshaleproductionatscaleandthatalikelyincreaseinNORMgenerationfromiron,steelandtitaniumdioxideproduction,aswellasthedecommissioningofoffshoreoilandgasinfrastructurefromtheNorthSeaandtheanticipatedgrowthinprovisionofO&Gdecommissioningservicestoothercountries,arelikelytoplaceevenmorepressureonlimitedcapacity.
128. Theproblemoflimitedtreatmentcapacityisillustratedbytheconsiderablevolumeof
wastewaterexpectedfromthetwoexploratoryfrackingsitesthatCuadrillasoughttodevelopinLancashire:aDECCStrategicEnvironmentalAssessmentreportedthata‘highactivityscenario’wouldresultinanannualproductionof108millionm3ofwastewaterfromthetwositeswhichontheirownwouldrepresentasmuchas3%ofUKtotalannualwastewater.102
129. Anotherissueisthetransportationofwastewatertotreatmentfacilities.Accordingto
Watson,Cuadrilla’stwoexploratorysitesinLancashirewouldinvolvetransportingatleast50millionlitres,anamountthatequatesto1,440tankerswithacapacityof35,000litres(360tankerloadsperwell).Inordertotransportthisvolumeoffluidtoatreatmentfacility,a
98E.Barbot,N.S.Vidic,K.B.Gregory,R.D.Vidic,2013.SpatialandtemporalcorrelationofwaterqualityparametersofproducedwatersfromDevonian-ageshalefollowinghydraulicfracturing.Environ.Sci.Technol.,47(2013),pp.2562–256999SeeRozellandReavenrefs42and56100PennsylvaniaDEPinvestigateselevatedTDSinMonongahelaRiver.WaterandWastesDigest.October27,2008.Availableat:http://www.wwdmag.com/Pennsylvania-DEP-Investigates-Elevated-TDS-in-Monongahela-RivernewsPiece16950,101Cuadrilla’sapplicationsincludeprovisionsforanextendedflowtestingperiodof18-24monthsafteraninitial90dayflowtesting.Itwasanticipatedthatproducedfluidswouldbegeneratedthroughoutthatextendedperiod.102AccordingtoWatson,theimpactofsuchasuddenandsignificantsurgeindemand,evenifonlyforarelativelyshort-term,intermsoftheopportunitycoststoothermajorusersandtheconsequencesofanyaccidentsordisruptionatthetreatmentsiteswasnotconsideredinCuadrilla’splanningapplications.
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potentialtotaltankermileageof470,000miles(approximately19timesaroundtheearth)wouldberequired,andresultinemissionsofaround2,000tonnesofcarbondioxide.103
130. Althoughon-sitetreatmentandre-useofflowbackcouldreducethevolumesofwastewater
generatedandlessenanyeffectsonoffsitetreatmentinfrastructurecapacity,thiswouldrequiremoresophisticatedequipment.Thereisalsosignificantuncertaintyastothequantityofflowbackfluidwhichmaybesuitableforre-use.
G. Airpollution
131. Airpollutantsinclude:(1)unintendedorirregular(fugitive)emissionsofgasfromtheground,wellandassociatedinfrastructure(e.g.pumps,flanges,valves,pipeconnectors,andcollectionandprocessingfacilities);(2)dieselfumesfromenginesusedtopowerequipment,trucksandgenerators;(3)emissionsfromdrillingmuds104,fracturingfluids105andflowbackwater;(4)silicadust(silicaisusedtopropopentheshalefractures);(5)ventingorthedeliberatereleaseofgasintotheatmosphere(whenthereisasafetyrisk);and(6)theflaringofgas(limitedintheUKtoexploratoryfrackingduetotheexpectedrequirementforgreenorreducedemissions‘completions’duringtheproductionphase).
132. Mooreetal(2014)conductedacriticalreviewoftheairimpactsofallfivestagesofthenaturalgaslifecycle(pre-production;production;transmission,storage,anddistribution;enduse;andwellproductionend-of-life).106Eachstagehasapotentialtoproducehazardousairpollutantswhichmayincludeparticulatematterfromdieselpoweredequipmentandtrucktraffic,VOCs,respirablesilica,H2S,NOxandSO2.Photochemicalreactionsinvolvingnitrogenoxides(NOxandVOCscanalsoproduceground-levelozone,sometimemanymilesawayfromtheactualsitesoffracking.
133. Airpollutionmayalsoarisefromthesub-surface.AccordingtoMaceyetal,“wedonot
understandtheextentofdrilling-relatedairemissionsaspocketsofmethane,propane,andotherconstituentsinthesubsurfacearedisturbedandreleasedtotheatmosphere”.107Thepotentialforgastobereleasedfromthesub-surfacedirectlyintotheatmospherehasbeen
103Thesefiguresareconservative,andbasedontheassumptionthattheflowbackratewouldonlybe19%ofthetotalwaterinjectionduringtheinitialflowtesting/explorationperiod(althoughconfusingly,afigureof40%wasreportedelsewhere).TheflowbackrateoverthethreemonthstestingatPreeseHallwas70%.104Duringthedrillingstageawater-basedfluidknownas“drillingmud”iscirculatedthroughtheboreholetolubricateandcoolthedrillbitandtoloosenandcollectfragmentsofrockcausedbythedrilling(‘cuttings’).105Frackingfluidmayincludebiocidestopreventbacterialgrowth;surfactantstoreducesurfacetensiontoaidfluidrecovery;gelsandpolymerstoincreaseviscosityandreducefriction;acids;andchemicalstoinhibitcorrosionofmetalpipes.Theexactcompositionwillvaryfromoperatortooperator,andfromsitetositedependingonfactorssuchasthedepthoftheoperation,thelengthofthewellandthenatureoftheshale.106MooreCetal,2014.AirImpactsofIncreasedNaturalGasAcquisition,Processing,andUse:ACriticalReviewEnviron.Sci.Technol.2014,48,8349−8359107Maceyetal,2014.Airconcentrationsofvolatilecompoundsnearoilandgasproduction:acommunity-basedexploratorystudy.EnvironmentalHealth2014,13:82doi:10.1186/1476-069X-13-82
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poorlystudied,andechoessomeoftheissuesdiscussedearlieraboutthepotentialforfaultsandfracturestoactasconduitsforthemigrationofgasandfluidbelowthesurface.
134. Multiplefactors(describedearlier)areinvolvedindeterminingtheactuallevelofair
pollution.Theseincludevariableoperatingpracticesaswellasgeologicalandmeteorologicalvariables.ThisexplainswhyairqualitystudiescarriedoutinregionswithhighlevelsofunconventionalO&Gproductionhaveyieldedvariableandconflictingresults.Thevariabilityinfindingsacrossthescientificliteratureisalsoafunctionofthescientificmethodsusedtomeasureairpollution.
135. Colbornetal(2013)demonstratethisvariabilityinastudywhichgatheredweekly,24-hour
airsamples0.7milesfromawellpadinGarfieldCountywhichshoweda“greatdealofvariabilityacrosssamplingdatesinthenumbersandconcentrationsofchemicalsdetected”.108
136. Eapietal(2014)alsofoundsubstantialvariationinfencelineconcentrationsofmethaneand
hydrogensulphide,whichcouldnotbeexplainedbyproductionvolume,numberofwells,orcondensatevolumeatnaturalgasdevelopmentsites.109Twosetsofdrive-bymeasurementsweretaken(theresearchersdidnothaveaccesstothesites)andthestudydefined‘high’levelsas>3ppmformethaneand>4.7ppb(theodourthreshold)forH2S.Elevatedlevelsofmethaneand/orH2Swerefoundat21%ofsites(highmethanelevelsat16.5%ofsitesandhighH2Sat8%ofsites).Whilemeanmethaneconcentrationsatdry(wheretheproducedgasisoverwhelminglymethane)sitesweresignificantlyhigherthanthoseatwetsites(whereproducedgasiscomprisedofmethaneandothervolatilessuchasethaneandbutane),norelationshipwiththesizeofthesiteorproductionvolumewasfound.
137. SomestudieshaveshownlittleinthewayofsignificantairpollutioncausedbySGP.Otherstudiesshowthatsomepollutantsareemittedatlevelsthatcanbreachairqualityandsafetystandards.
138. Goetzetal(2015)assessedthecompositionofairsamplesusingamobilelaboratoryatsiteswithhighlevelsofshalegasactivityinthesummerof2012inNEandSWPennsylvania,includingover50compressorstationsand4200wells.110Theyfoundnoelevationofsub-micrometerparticles,noroflightaromaticcompoundssuchasbenzeneandtoluene.NearlyallVOCsdetectedwereattributedtoon-roadengineexhaust.Accordingtotheauthors,theabsenceoflightaromaticswasnotsurprisingbecausetheMarcellusshaledoesnothaveassociatedoildeposits.
108ColbornT,SchultzK,HerrickL,KwiatkowskiC.Anexploratorystudyofairqualitynearnaturalgasoperations.HumEcolRiskAssess2013.http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10807039.2012.749447109EapiGR,SabnisMS,SattlerML,2014.MobilemeasurementofmethaneandhydrogensulfideatnaturalgasproductionsitefencelinesintheTexasBarnettShale.JAirWasteManagAssoc.64(8):927-44.110GoetzJ,FloerchingerC,FortnerEetal,2015..AtmosphericemissioncharacterizationofMarcellusShaleNaturalGasDevelopmentSites.
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139. Bunchetal(2014)analyseddataonVOClevelscollectedbytheTexasCommissiononEnvironmentalQualityusing7monitorsat6sitesfrom2000-2011.111Theyfoundalmostzeroexceedanceofhealth-basedcomparisonvalues.Thestudy,supportedbyanindustryfundedEnergyEducationCouncil,alsoranriskassessmentstudiesbasedonthesedataandconcludedthatshalegasproductionactivitieshadnotledtoVOCexposuresofpublichealthconcern.
140. Pauliketal(2015)usedpassiveairsamplerstoassesslevelsof62PAHsat23residentialpropertiesinCarrollCountyOhiolocatedbetween0.04and3.2milesofanactivewellpadinearly2014.112SamplingsitesexcludedothersourcesofPAHssuchasurbanareasandproximitytoairports,andsamplersweredeployedasfaraspossiblefromobviouspotentialconfoundingsources.LevelsofPAHswereanorderofmagnitudehigherthanresultspreviouslypublishedforruralareaswithaclearpatternofincreasingPAHlevelswithcloserproximitytowellpads.
141. Maceyetal(2014)assessedconcentrationsofVOCsin35airsamplesaroundUNGsitesthat
werecollectedbytrainedmembersofthecommunityinfiveUSstates.113Residentsusedanassessmentoflocalconditionstodeterminethesitesof35grabsamplesandsupplementedthesewith41formaldehydebadgesatproductionfacilitiesandcompressorstations.46%oftheformerand34%ofthelatterexceededestablishedairsafetystandards.Highconcentrationsofbenzene,formaldehyde,hexaneandH2Swereidentified.Insomecases,benzenelevelsexceededstandardsbyseveralordersofmagnitude.
142. AstudyinsixcountiesoftheDallas/FortWorthareasbyRichetal(2016)assessedchemicals
inambientairsamplesinresidentialareasnearshalegaswells.114Sampleswerecollectedusing24-hourpassivesamplersat39locationswithin61mofaUNGsitefrom2008-2010.Approximately20%ofthe101chemicalsidentifiedweredesignatedHAPs,including1,3-butadiene,tetrachloroethaneandbenzene(withthelatteridentifiedat76%ofsites).Virtuallyalltheanalysesdetectedhighmethanelevels,withthemeanlevelbeingsixtimeshigherthanbackgroundconcentrations.Principalcomponentanalysisidentifiedcompressorsasthedominantsourceofmanyofthechemicals,althoughfurtherstudieswithlargersamplesizesarerequiredtoconfirmthesefindings.
143. Ethridgeetal(2015)reportedonextensivemonitoringofairborneVOCsintheBarnettShale
regionbytheTexasCommissiononEnvironmentalQuality(TCEQ).TCEQdevelopedanextensiveinventoryofemissionsourcesincludinginformationonlocation,typeandnumberofemissionsources;equipmentandactivitiesconducted;releasestoair;andproximityofreceptors.Arangeofmonitoringtechniqueswasusedtoestimatelongandshort-termexposuresinareaswithandwithoutUNGduring2009and2010.Whileseveralshort-termsamplesexceededodour-based
111BunchAG,PerryCS,etal,2014.EvaluationofimpactofshalegasoperationsintheBarnettShaleregiononvolatileorganiccompoundsinairandpotentialhumanhealthrisks.SciTotalEnviron468–469:832–42.112Pauliketal,2015.ImpactofNaturalGasExtractiononPAHLevelsinAmbientAir.Environ.Sci.Technol.2015,49,5203−5210113Maceyetal,2014.Airconcentrationsofvolatilecompoundsnearoilandgasproduction:acommunity-basedexploratorystudy.EnvironmentalHealth2014,13:82114RichandOrimoloye.ElevatedAtmosphericLevelsofBenzeneandBenzene-RelatedCompoundsfromUnconventionalShaleExtractionandProcessing:HumanHealthConcernforResidentialCommunities.EnvironmentalHealthInsights2016:1075–82doi:10.4137/EHI.S33314.
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airmonitoringcomparisonvaluesanddetectedlevelsabovetypicalbackgroundnormsdownwindofUNG,onlythreesamplesexceededhealth-basedAMCVs.Short-termsamplingfoundelevatedlevelsofVOCs,mostnotablybenzene,beingemittedfromasmallpercentageofthosefacilities.
144. Inastudyofairqualitybefore,duringandafterthedevelopmentandoperationofafracked
gaswellpad,Colbornetal(2014)measuredlevelsofVOCsandcarbonylsusingamonitoringstation1.1kmfromasiteinWesternColoradooverthecourseofayear.115Variouschemicalsweremonitored,andmethane,ethane,propane,toluene,formaldehydeandacetaldehydeweredetectedineverysample.Chemicalsassociatedwithurbantrafficemissionsasopposedtogasoperations(e.g.ethane)werefoundatlowlevels.TherewasconsiderabletemporalvariabilityinthenumberandconcentrationsofchemicalsdetectedalthoughlevelsofNMHCswerehighestduringtheinitialdrillingphasepriortofracturing.TheauthorsalsonotedthatexposuretosomeNMHCsatevenverylowconcentrations(andbelowgovernmentsafetystandards)couldhavehealtheffects.TheyhighlightedthatcertainPAHs“wereatconcentrationsgreaterthanthoseatwhichprenatallyexposedchildreninurbanstudieshadlowerdevelopmentalandIQscores”andthat“thehumanandenvironmentalhealthimpactsoftheNMHCs,whichareozoneprecursors,shouldbeexaminedfurthergiventhatthenaturalgasindustryisnowoperatingincloseproximitytohumanresidencesandpubliclands”.
145. Litovitz2013estimatedlevelsofVOC,NOx,PM10,PM2.5andSO2emissionsandthecostoftheenvironmentalandhealthdamagesassociatedwithshalegasextractioninPennsylvania.116Whileemissionswereasmallproportionoftotalstatewideemissions,NOxemissionswereupto40timeshigherinareaswithconcentratedshalegasactivitiesthanpermittedforasingleminorsource.Theyestimatedtheenvironmentalandhealthcostsfor2011torangefrom$7.2to$32millionwithover50%duetocompressorstations.However,theyemphasisethatasubstantialproportionofthesedamagescannotbespecificallyattributedtoshalegasandarelessthanthoseestimatedforanyofthestate’slargecoalpowerplants.Despitetheuncertaintiesassociatedwiththeestimates,theyconsiderthepollutionemissionstobenon-trivial.
139. Swarthoutetal(2015)analysedairsamplesfromacrossaregionsurroundingPittsburghand
compareddatafromtwosites:onewithnearly300unconventionalnaturalgas(UNG)wellswithin10kmandtheotheraremotelocationwithasinglewellwithin10km.117TheyfoundelevatedmixingratiosofmethaneandC2−C8alkanesinareaswiththehighestdensityofUNGwells.ThefindingthatalkanemixingratioswerenotelevatednearconventionalwellssupportstheconclusionthatUNGwellsmayleakatahigherratethanconventionalwells.SourceapportionmentmethodsindicatedthatUNGemissionswereresponsibleforthemajorityofmixingratiosofC2−C8alkanes,butaccountedforasmallproportionofalkeneandaromatic
115ColbornT,SchultzK,HerrickL,KwiatkowskiC.Anexploratorystudyofairqualitynearnaturalgasoperations.HumEcolRiskAssess2014;20(1):86–105.116LitovitzA,CurtrightA,etal(2013).Estimationofregionalair-qualitydamagesfromMarcellusShalenaturalgasextractioninPennsylvania.EnvironResLett8(1),014017doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014017.117SwarthoutR,etal,2015.ImpactofMarcellusShaleNaturalGasDevelopmentinSouthwestPennsylvaniaonVolatileOrganicCompoundEmissionsandRegionalAirQualityEnviron.Sci.Technol.2015,49,3175−3184
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compounds.TheVOCemissionsfromUNGoperationswerealsoassociatedwithlevelsofozoneformationthatcompromisedfederalairqualitystandards,butweredeemednottobehighenoughtoraiseconcernaboutcancerandnon-cancerrisks.
140. Vinciguerraetal(2015)usedambientlevelsofethane,amarkerforfugitivenaturalgasemissions,andreportedthatdaytimeethaneconcentrationshadincreasedfromabout7%oftotalmeasurednon-methaneorganiccarbontoabout15%from2010to2013inareasoverlyingtheMarcellusShale.118Thistrendwasnotobservedinacontrolareawithsimilarurbansourcesofpollutionbutnoextensivenaturalgasproduction.Theyconcludethatasubstantialfractionofnaturalgasisescapinguncombusted,andthesignalisdetectablehundredsofkilometersdownwind.TheyconcludethatthiscouldcauseozoneandPMlevelstoriseandbreachairqualitystandardsinmajorurbancentersdownwind.
141. Kemball-Cooketal(2010)developedprojectionsoffutureUNGproductioninthe
Haynesvilleshaleunderthreedifferentintensityconditionsbasedonthenumberofnewwellsdrilledandproductionestimatesforeachnewactivewell.119Theseestimateswereusedtodevelopemissioninventoriesforeachscenariousingdatafromadevelopmentinasimilarnearbyformation.EstimatedemissionsofNOx,VOCsandCOwerelargeenoughtothreatentheachievementofproposedozonestandardseveninthemodelassuminglimitedUNGdevelopment.Drillrigs,compressorstationsandgasplantswereidentifiedastheprincipalsourcesofNOxandtheauthorssuggestedadditionalcontrolsontheseelementsoftheprocess.
142. Theauthorsofastudyofthetraffic-relatedenvironmentalimpactsoffrackingoperations
(Goodmanetal,2016),concludedthat“thelocalimpactsofasinglewellpadmaybeshortdurationbutlargemagnitude”,andthatwhilesingledigitpercentileincreasesinemissionsofCO2,NOxandPMwereestimatedovertheperiodfromstartofconstructiontopadcompletion(potentiallyseveralmonthsoryears),excessemissionsoftraffic-relatedNOxonindividualdaysofpeakactivitycouldreach30%overbaseline.120
143. TheWestVirginiaNaturalGasHorizontalWellControlActof2011requiresdeterminationof
theeffectivenessofa625footset-backfromthecenterofthepadofahorizontalwelldrillingsite. An investigationwhich collected data on dust, hydrocarbon compounds and radiation tocharacterizelevelsthatmightbefoundat625feetfromthewellpadcenterofunconventionalgasdrilling sites founddetectable levels of dust andVOCswith somebenzene concentrationsabovewhattheCDCcallsthe“theminimumrisklevelfornohealtheffects.”Buttherewerenoconcernsfoundrelatedionizingradiationlevelsfromairborneparticulatematter.121
118VinciguerraTetal(2015)Regionalairqualityimpactsofhydraulicfracturingandshalenaturalgasactivity:EvidencefromambientVOCobservations.AtmosphericEnvironment110(2015)144e150119Kemball-CookS,Bar-IlanA,etal(2010).OzoneimpactsofnaturalgasdevelopmentintheHaynesvilleShale.EnvironSciTechnol44(24):9357–63.120Goodmanetal,2016Investigatingthetraffic-relatedenvironmentalimpactsofhydraulic-fracturing(fracking)operations,EnvironmentInternational89–90(2016)248–260121McCawleyM,2013.Air,Noise,andLightMonitoringResultsforAssessingEnvironmentalImpactsofHorizontalGasWellDrillingOperations(ETD-10Project.http://wvwri.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/a-n-l-final-report-for-web.pdf
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144. Gilman2013comparedVOCconcentrationsmeasuredatanatmosphericresearchfacilitylocatedintheColoradoWattenbergfieldwithambientlevelsmonitoredintwootherNEColoradosites.122VOCsrelatedtooilandnaturalgaswereidentifiedatallthreesitesandconsideredtorepresentasignificantsourceofozoneprecursors.
145. SeveralotherpapersnotethatO&Goperationscontributetotheformationofozone.Field
etal2015reportednumerouslocalisedozoneepisodesduringthewinterof2011associatedwithfugitiveemissionsofnaturalgas(aswellasothersourcessuchastraffic,condensateandwatertreatmentfacilities).123Edwardsetal(2014)describedthatO&Gactivitiescontributedtotheformationofozoneduringthewinterof2012-13intheUintahbasin.124
146. Helmigetal’s(2014)examinationofthehighozonelevelsintheUintahbasininthewinterof2012/13notedthattheUintahBasinWinterOzoneStudieshadpreviouslyidentifiedhighlyelevatedlevelsofatmosphericalkanehydrocarbonswithenhancedratesofC2−C5non-methanehydrocarbon(NMHC)molefractions.ThetotalannualmassfluxofC2−C7VOCwasestimatedtobeequivalenttotheannualVOCemissionsofafleetof∼100millionautomobiles,“reachingorexceedinglevelsreportedfromthemostheavilypollutedinnercities”.Totalannualfugitiveemissionofbenzeneandtoluenewerealsoestimated(1.6±0.4×106and2.0±0.5×106kgyr−1respectively).Theirfindingsreveal“astrongcausallinkbetweenoilandgasemissions,accumulationofairtoxics,andsignificantproductionofozoneintheatmosphericsurfacelayer".TheyalsoestimatedthatfugitivemethaneandNMHCemissionsamountedtoatotalhydrocarbon/naturalgasproductionlossrateof8.4−15.9%.
147. Royetal(2014)developedanemissioninventorytoestimateemissionsofNOx,VOCs,and
PM2.5inPennsylvania,NewYork,andWestVirginiafor2009and2020.125TheanalysissuggestedthatMarcellusshaledevelopmentwouldbeanimportantsourceofregionalNOxandVOCspotentiallycontributing12%(6–18%)ofemissionsintheregionin2020.Thislevelofreleasewasconsideredlargeenoughtooffsetprojectedemissionsreductionsinothersectorsandchallengeozonemanagementinruralareas.WhiletheMarcellusshalewasnotpredictedtocontributesignificantlytoregionalPM2.5levels,itcouldaccountfor14%(2-36%)ofelementalcarbon.
148. AhmadiandJohn2015conductedacomprehensiveanalysisofhistoricalozonedataanddevelopedatimeseriesanalysistoevaluatethelongtermrelationshipbetweenshalegasdevelopmentandozonepollutionintheDallas-FortWorthregionofTexas.Theyalsoconductedacomparativeassessmentwithanadjacentnon-shalegasregion.Regionalairqualityhadbeenextensivelymonitoredforover30yearsandprovidedanexceptionallycomprehensiveandextensivedataset.Theanalysisconsideredtrendsduringtheperiods2000to2006andfrom
122GilmanJB,LernerBM,KusterWC,deGouwJA.SourcesignatureofvolatileorganiccompoundsfromoilandnaturalgasoperationsinNortheasternColorado.EnvironSciTechnol2013;47(3):1297–305123Fieldetal2015.Influenceofoilandgasfieldoperationsonspatialandtemporaldistributionsofatmosphericnon-methanehydrocarbonsandtheireffectonozoneformationinwinter.Atmos.Chem.Phys.,15,3527–3542,124EdwardsPM,BrownSS,RobertsJMetal,2014.Highwinterozonepollutionfromcarbonylphotolysisinanoilandgasbasin.Nature,2014,514,351-354.125Royetal,2014.Airpollutantemissionsfromthedevelopment,production,andprocessingofMarcellusShalenaturalgas.JAirWasteManagAssoc.2014Jan;64(1):19-37.
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2007to2013andshowedthatozonelevelsdecreasedinthenon-shalegasregioncomparedtotheshalegasregion.Theaveragelong-termcomponentofmeteorologicallyadjustedozonewas2%higherintheshalegasareafrom2008andthemeanshort-termmeteorologicallyadjustedozonewasalmost10%higher.
149. UNG’sphotochemicaloxidantformationpotentialhasbeenestimatedtobeaboutnine
timeshigherforUKshalegascomparedtoNorthSeagaswhenusedforelectricitygenerationand60%worsethancoalpower(Stamfordetal2014).
H. Healthimpactsofpollution
150. Potentialhazardsbecomeriskstohealthwhenthereisexposuretothosehazardsatlevelsthatmightharmhealth.Somepollutantsareacutelydetrimental(i.e.toxic)whilstothersmaycauselongtermhealtheffectsduetochronicexposureatevenrelativelylowlevels.
151. The number of risk studies is limited and more research is needed to address public
concerns about the risks of SGP on human and ecosystem health.126 127 A cumulative riskassessment approach would incorporate chemical, physical, and psychosocial stressors thatcontributetostress-relatedhealtheffectsinpopulationslivingnearUNGdevelopmentsites.128
152. Somestudieswhichhavemeasuredlevelsofpollutionhavebeenabletomodelorestimate
thepotential impactonhealth.These includestudiesmentionedearlier.However, fewstudieshaveactuallyassessedormeasuredstatesofhealthandlookedforanyassociationswithO&Gactivities.
153. AstudybyZielinskaetal(2014)oftheimpactofSGPonpopulationexposuretoairpollutantsintheBarnettShaleregionusedacombinationofactivewellVOCemissioncharacterisation,pollutantmonitoringinalocalresidentialcommunityof250-300householdsinanareaofhighwelldensityandadjacenttoacompressorstation,andmeasurementofthepollutantgradientdownwindofagaswell.129MonitoringincludedNOx,NO2,SO2,C5–C9hydrocarbons,carbondisulphideandcarbonylcompounds,PM2.5andPAHs.Samplesfromwellheadcondensatetankventingemissionswereusedtoestablishasourceprofile.TheaverageVOCandPM2.5concentrationsintheresidentialareawerefoundtobegenerallylow,and“notlikelytobediscerniblebeyondadistanceofapproximately100minthedownwinddirection”.However,theresultsalsoindicatedasignificantcontributiontoregionalVOCsfromgasproductionsources.
126Sexton,K.;Linder,S.H.CumulativeRiskAssessmentforCombinedHealthEffectsFromChemicalandNonchemicalStressorsAm.J.PublicHealth2011,101(S1)S81–S88,DOI:10.2105/ajph.2011.300118127Brittingham,M.EcologicalRisksofShaleGasDevelopment.RisksofUnconventionalShaleGasDevelopment;WashingtonDC,2013;http://sites.nationalacademies.org/DBASSE/BECS/DBASSE_083187.128Adgate2013129Zielinskaetal,2014.ImpactofemissionsfromnaturalgasproductionfacilitiesonambientairqualityintheBarnettShalearea:apilotstudy.JAirWasteManagAssoc.2014Dec;64(12):1369-83.
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154. Brownetal(2015)conductedamodellingstudytodeterminethehealthimpactofexposure
toVOCandPM2.5inahypotheticaltowninproximitytoashalegasdevelopmentsite.130Theycombineddataonweatherpatternswithknownandestimatedmeasuresofemissionsfromshalegasoperationstoassesspotentialhealthimpact.Theyfoundthatresidentswouldbeexposedtodifferentintensitiesofpollutantsatdifferenttimes,andthatthesedifferencesarerelatedtothetypeofactivityatthewellpadinconjunctionwithotherconditionsforthespecifiedtimeperiod.Drilling,flaring,finishingandgasproductionstagesproducedhigherexposurelevelsthanthehydraulicfracturingstage.Thestudydemonstratedtheimportanceofairstabilityandwinddirectioninexposureattheresidentiallevelwhichwould“provideapossibleexplanationfortheepisodicnatureofhealthcomplaintsandsymptomsingasdrillingandprocessingareas”.Theauthorsmake3recommendations:1)moreresearchisneededtomeasureemissionsinveryshorttimeintervalswhilealsomeasuringoveralongperiodoftime;2)thehealthcarecommunityshouldconsiderthepossibilityofpatientssufferingfromintermittentindustrialexposuresiftheyliveorworknearUNGdevelopmentsites;and3)individualslivinginshalegasareasshouldmonitorweatherconditionstounderstandwhentheairislikelytobeparticularlypollutedandwhenitislikelytobelesspolluted.
155. McKenzieetal’s(2012)assessmentoftheriskofexposuretoairpollutioninvolved
calculatinghazardindices(HIs)forresidentsliving<1/2mileand>1/2milefromwells.131Thestudyusedroutineambientairmonitoringdatafrom187frackingsitesfromJanuary2008toNovember2010andassumedacumulativeeffectfrommultiplechemicals.Itfoundthatresidentslivingwithin0.5mileofwellswereatgreaterriskthanthoseliving>0.5mileaway.Forsub-chronicnon-cancerconditionsthiswasprincipallyduetoexposuretotrimethylbenzenes,xylenes,andaliphatichydrocarbons.Cumulativecancerriskswere10inamillionfortheproximalzoneandsixinamillioninthedistalzone,withbenzeneandethylbenzeneasthemajorcontributortorisk.ThelargestHIwasattributedtotherelativelyshort-termeffectsofhighemissionsduringthewelldevelopmentandcompletionperiod,drivenprincipallybyexposuretotrimethylbenzenes,aliphatichydrocarbonsandxyleneswhichhaveneurologicaland/orrespiratoryeffects(haematologicalanddevelopmentaleffectsalsocontributedtothecombinedHI).AccordingtoPHE,“thepapersuggeststhatthepotentialrisksfromsub-chronicexposureareofmostconcern,especiallyamongresidentsclosesttothewellpad”.
156. However,inSwarthoutetal’s(2015)studyofairsamplesinaregionsurroundingPittsburgh,whichfoundthatlocalpeopleareexposedtohigherlevelsofhazardousairpollutantscomparedtopopulationslivingmoreremotelyfromgasoperations,theactualconcentrationsofVOCs
130BrownDR,LewisC,andWeinbergerBI,2015.Humanexposuretounconventionalnaturalgasdevelopment:Apublichealthdemonstrationofperiodichighexposuretochemicalmixturesinambientair.J.Environ.SciHeal.A,50,460–472,doi:10.1080/10934529.2015.992663.131McKenzieetal,2012.Humanhealthriskassessmentofairemissionsfromdevelopmentofunconventionalnaturalgasresources.ScienceoftheTotalEnvironment424(2012)79–87.
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resultedinarelativelylowHIforbothcancerandnon-cancerrisks(usingamodifiedversionofthemethodusedbyMcKenziein2012).132
157. Ariskassessmentofthepotentialpublichealthimplicationsresultingfromtheinhalationof
VOCsinGarfieldCountyindicatedslightlyelevatedexcesslifetimecancerrisksdrivenmainlybybenzenebutwhichwerewithintheEPA’sacceptablerangeofrisk.Italsofoundsomeelevationofacuteorsubchronicnon-cancerrisksforthoselivingclosesttowellsites,butlittleindicationofchronicnon-cancerrisks.133134
158. Apopulation-basedstudyoftheassociationbetweenozonelevelsandhealtheffectsina
UNGdevelopmentregioninWyomingbetween2008and2011observeda3%increaseinthenumberofclinicvisitsforadverserespiratory-relatedeffectsforevery10ppbincreaseinthe8hozoneconcentrationthepreviousday.135
159. Community-basedsurveyshavedocumentedvarioussymptoms,aswellasinstancesofsleep
loss, stress and odour complaints in association with shale gas developments. Though thesestudieslackscientificrigorbecausetheyaresmall,anduseself-selectingorconveniencesamplesof the local population,many of the findings are consistentwith the known health effects ofexposuretopetroleumhydrocarbons.
160. Aself-reportingsurveyof108individualsfrom55householdsin14countiesinPennsylvania
between August 2011 and July 2012 found over 50% of participants reporting variousrespiratory, behavioural, neurological,muscular, digestive, skin and vision symptoms; someofwhich were associated with proximity to fracking and experience of odours. The same studyconducted34airtestsand9watertestsinasubsetof35households.19airsamplesrecordedavarietyofVOCsandBTEXlevelshigherthanthosepreviouslyreportedbythelocalDepartmentfor Environmental Protection; and 26 chemicals detected in 11 well water samples whichexceededtheMCLformanganese,iron,arsenic,orlead.Therewassomecongruencebetween
132SwarthoutRetal,2015.ImpactofMarcellusShaleNaturalGasDevelopmentinSouthwestPennsylvaniaonVolatileOrganicCompoundEmissionsandRegionalAirQuality.EnvironSciTechnol,49:3175−3184133HealthConsultation:PublicHealthImplicationsofAmbientAirExposurestoVolatileOrganicCompoundsasMeasuredinRural,Urban,andOil&GasDevelopmentAreasGarfieldCounty,Colorado,AgencyforToxicSubstancesandDiseaseRegistry;U.SDepartmentofHealthandHumanServicesAgency;Atlanta,GA,2008;http://www.atsdr.cdc.gov/HAC/pha/Garfield_County_HC_3-13-08/Garfield_County_HC_3-13-08.pdf.134GarfieldCountyAirToxicsInhalationScreeningLevelHumanHealthRiskAssessment:InhalationofVolatileOrganicCompoundsMeasuredIn2008AirQualityMonitoringStudy.ColoradoDepartmentofPublicHealthandEnvironment:DiseaseControlandEnvironmentalEpidemiologyDivision;Rifle,CO,2010.http://www.garfield-county.com/public-health/documents/6%2030%2010%20%20RisK%20Assessment%20for%20Garfield%20County%20based%20on%202008%20air%20monitoring.pdf135AssociationsofShort-TermExposuretoOzoneandRespiratoryOutpatientClinicVisits-SubletteCounty,Wyoming,2008–2011;Pride,K.;Peel,J.;Robinson,B.;Busacker,A.;Grandpre,J.;Yip,F.;Murphy,T.;StateofWyomingDepartmentofHealth:Cheyenne,WY,2013;
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symptomsandchemicals identifiedbyenvironmental testing,but thestudywassmallanddidnotinvolvearandomsampleofparticipants.136
161. AcrosssectionalstudyofpatientspresentingtoaprimarycarecentreinPennsylvaniaby
Saberi(2014)usedaself-administeredquestionnairetoexploreattributionofhealthperceptionsand29symptomstoenvironmentalcausesincludingUNGoveroneweekin2012.137Ofthe72participants,42%attributedatleastonesymptomtoanenvironmentalcausewith22%identifyingUNGdevelopment.22%ofrespondentslinkedahealthproblemtonaturalgas(16of72),howeversomeofthesesymptomsareofdubiousplausibility.Nineofthe16linkednaturalgastoa‘medicalsymptom’,areducedlistof15drawnfromthe29inthequestionnaire.Casereviewswereconductedonsixparticipantslinking‘medicalsymptoms’tonaturalgasandonlyonehadarecordofboththesymptomandtheconcernandinthreecasestherewasnorecordofeither.Therewasnomeasureofpotentialexposureandwhilemappingof74%ofrespondentsshowedresidencewithintwomilesofawell,italsodemonstratednoevidenceofclustering.Thepotentialforbiasisreflectedinthehighlevelsofsymptomlinkagetootherenvironmentalissuessuchasantibioticsinfood(22%)andageingduetofreeradicals(11%).
162. Steinzoretal(2013)reportedaquestionnairebasedcommunityhealthsurveysupplementedwithenvironmentaldata(VOCsinairandheavymetalsinwellwater)fromsitesclosetoparticipants’homes.138Thisstudyinvolved108individualsincludingpeoplerecruitedatpubliceventsfrom14Pennsylvaniacounties.Allintervieweesreportedsymptoms(range2-111)withover50%reportingmorethan20.Avarietyofsymptomswasidentifiedincludingrespiratory,behavioural,neurological,muscular,digestive,skinandvisionsymptoms.ThroatandsinusissuesincreasedwithresidentialproximitytoUNGsitesandanassociationbetweenodoursandsomesymptomswasalsoidentified.Thereislikelybiasintheselectionofstudysubjectsandwhilesomeenvironmentaldatawerecollected,thisstudyuseddistanceasaproxyforexposure.34airandninewatersamplesweretakenat35households;locationswereselectedbasedonhouseholdinterest,severityofreportedsymptoms,andproximitytogasfacilities.19airsamplesrecordedavarietyofVOCsandwhileBTEXlevelswerehigherthanthosepreviouslyreportedinsamplestakenbythelocalDepartmentforEnvironmentalProtectionandusedascontrols,nocomparisonswithregulatoryoradvisorystandardsweremade.26chemicalsweredetectedinwellwaterwith11samplesexceedingtheMCLformanganese,iron,arsenic,orlead.Whilethestudyreportssomecongruencebetweensymptomsandchemicalsidentifiedbyenvironmentaltestingallthesymptomswereself-reported,mostlyhighlynon-specificandcannotbeconfidentlylinkedtoemissionsfromUNGsites.
163. A retrospective study of 124,862 births in rural Colorado showed an association betweenmaternalproximitytonaturalgaswellsitesandbirthprevalenceofcongenitalheartdefectsand
136FerrarKJ,KrieskyJ,ChristenCL,MarshallLP,MaloneSL,etal.AssessmentandlongitudinalanalysisofhealthimpactsandstressorsperceivedtoresultfromunconventionalshalegasdevelopmentintheMarcellusShaleregionInt.J.Occup.Environ.Health2013,19(2)104–12,DOI:10.1179/2049396713y.0000000024137SaberiP.NavigatingMedicalIssuesinShaleTerritoryNewSolutions2013,23(1)209–221.138SteinzorN,SubraWandSumiL(2013).InvestigatinglinksbetweenshalegasdevelopmentandhealthimpactsthroughcommunitysurveyprojectinPennsylvania.NewSolut23:55–83.
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neural tube defects, but no association with oral clefts, term low birth weight or pretermbirth.139Exposurewas imputedby calculating tertilesof inversedistanceweightednatural gaswellcountswithina10-mileradiusofmaternalresidence(range1to1400wellspermile)andareferencepopulationwithnowellswithin10miles.Associationswereexaminedusing logisticregression andmultiple linear regressions. The number of births was approximately equal inexposed/non-exposedgroups.PrevalenceofCHDsincreasedwithexposuretertilewithanORinhighest tertileof 1.3 (CI 1.2, 1.5).NTDprevalencewasalsoassociatedwith thehighest tertile(OR2.0;CI1.0,3.9),comparedwiththenon-exposedgroup.Exposurewasnegativelyassociatedwithprematurityand lowbirthweightandtherewasamodestpositiveassociationwith foetalgrowth. No association was reported for oral clefts. This well conducted analysis of a largepopulationsuggestsapositiveassociationbetweenproximityanddensityofgaswellsinrelationto mothers’ residence and an increased prevalence of CHDs and possibly NTDs. This type ofstudyhasseveralrecognised limitations,whichtheauthorsacknowledge, including incompletedata, undercounting, the effect of folic acid supplements, residual confounding and lack ofexposuremeasures.Againtheauthorscallforfurtherresearchaddressingtheseissues.
164. Aworkingpaperexploring1,069,699births inPennsylvania reported increasedprevalence
of lowbirthweight and small for gestational agebirths, aswell as reducedappearance,pulse,grimace,activity,respiration(APGAR)scoresininfantsborntomotherslivingwithin2.5kmofanaturalgaswellcomparedtoinfantsborntomotherslivingfurtherthan2.5kmfromawell.140
165. Anindustry-fundedstudy(Fryzekatal,2013)ofchildhoodcancersbeforeandafterfracking
inPennsylvaniafoundnodifferenceintheincidencerate,exceptforCNStumoursalthoughnorelationshipwasapparentwiththenumberofwellsdrilled.Thestudyfoundahigherincidenceoftotalcancersforcountieswith500wellsorfewercomparedtocountieswithmorethan500wells. The period of data analysis after drilling was generally too short for an adequateassessmentofcancerrisks,givenlatencyincancerdevelopment.141TheauthorsrecognisethatSIRsshouldnotbedirectlycomparedbutactuallydosotomakereassuringconclusions.Thishasbeenchallengedonotherkeymethodologicalissuesbyothers.142
166. Few studies have attempted to use biomonitoring to explore risks from shale gas-related
pollutants.Bloodandurinesamplescollectedfrom28adults living inDish,Texas,atownwithlargenumbersof gaswells, storage tanks, andcompressor stationsnear residences, foundnoindication of community wide-exposure to VOCs.143 These results likely reflect the multiplepotentialsourcesandtheshorthalf-livesofmostVOCsinurineandblood,especiallysincethe
139McKenzieL.M,GuoR,WitterRZ,etal,2014.MaternalresidentialproximitytonaturalgasdevelopmentandadversebirthoutcomesinruralColoradoEnviron.HealthPerspect.DOI:10.1289/ehp.1306722140Hill,E.UnconventionalNaturalGasDevelopmentandInfantHealth:EvidencefromPennsylvania.CornellUniversity:WorkingPaper,CharlesDysonSchoolofAppliedEconomicsandManagement,2012141FryzekJ,PastulaS,JiangX,GarabrantDH.ChildhoodcancerincidenceinPennsylvaniacountiesinrelationtolivingincountieswithhydraulicfracturingsitesJ.Occup.Environ.Med.2013,55(7)796–801142GoldsteinD,Malone,S.ObfuscationDoesNotProvideComfort:JournalofOccupationalandEnvironmentalMedicine.2013.55(11);1376–1378).143DISH,TexasExposureInvestigation;TexasDepartmentofStateHealthServices:Dish,DentonCounty,TX,2010;www.dshs.state.tx.us/epitox/consults/dish_ei_2010.pdf.
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samplingdidnotcoincidewithknownorperceivedexposures,andconcurrentairsampleswerenotcollectedforstudysubjects.
167. Rich et al (2016) found elevated atmospheric levels of carbon disulphide (CS2) and 12
associated sulphide compounds present in the atmosphere in residential areas where UOGextraction and processing operations were occurring. Atmospheric chemical concentrationswere compared to the US Environmental Protection Agency’s Urban Air Toxics MonitoringProgrammeandindicatedthatatmosphericCS2concentrationsinthestudyareasexceededthenationalmaximumaverageby61%(2007),94%(2008–2009),53,268%(2010),351%(2011),and535% (2012)" abovenational background levels. The literature regarding thehealth effects ofCS2 was also reviewed and found to be consistentwith complaints of adverse health effects.However,becauseairmonitoringanalysisalsofoundmultipleVOCspresentsimultaneouslywithCSandsulphidechemicals, itwasdifficulttodeterminewhichchemicalorchemicalsmayhavebeenresponsibleforthehealthcomplaints'144.
168. Jemielitaetal(2015)examinedtherelationshipbetweeninpatientratesandwellnumbersanddensity(wellsperkm2)inthreePennsylvaniacountiesfor2007-2011.145TwoofthecountieshadexperiencedalargeincreaseinUNGactivitiesduringthisperiodwhilethethirdhadn’t.Thestudy found that cardiology inpatient prevalence rateswere significantly associatedwithwellnumbers(p<0.00096)andwelldensity(p<0.001)andneurologyinpatientprevalencerateswerealso significantly associated with density (p<0.001). According to the authors, other evidence“also supported an association between well density and inpatient prevalence rates for themedical categories of dermatology, neurology, oncology, and urology”. However, rates forgynaecologyandorthopaedicswerefoundtohavedecreased.Whilethisstudyinvolvedalargeresident population, there are several recognised limitations.While population demographicswere similar by county there was no analysis by zip code and no control for smoking, a keyconfounderforcardiologyinpatientprevalence.Mostwellsappeartohavebeenestablishedinlastyearofstudywhichcoveredarelativelyshortperiodandtherewasconsiderablevariationinthenumberofwellsbyzipcodeaddingtothepotentialforexposuremisclassification.
169. Caseyetal(2016)conductedaretrospectivecohortstudyofmorethan9,000motherslinkedtoalmost11,000neonatesoverfouryearstoexaminetherelationshipbetweenproximitytoUNGandlevelofdrillingactivityandfouradversereproductiveoutcomes:birthweight,pretermbirth,5-minuteApgarscores,andsmallforgestationalage(SGA).146MultilevellinearandlogisticregressionmodelsfoundastrongassociationbetweenUNGactivityandpretermbirth,butnotwiththeotheroutcomes.Aposthocanalysisalsoidentifiedanassociationwith
144Richetal,2016,CarbonDisulfide(CS2)InterferenceinGlucoseMetabolismfromUnconventionalOilandGasExtractionandProcessingEmissions,EnvironmentalHealthInsights2016:1051–57doi:10.4137/EHI.S31906.145JemielitaT,GertonGL,NeidellM,ChillrudS,YanB,StuteM,etal.(2015)UnconventionalGasandOilDrillingIsAssociatedwithIncreasedHospitalUtilizationRates.PLoSONE10(7):e0131093.doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0131093146CaseyJA,etal,2016.UnconventionalnaturalgasdevelopmentandbirthoutcomesinPennsylvania,USA.Epidemiology.2016March;27(2):163–17
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physicianrecordedhigh-riskpregnancy(OR1.395%CI1.1,1.7).TheauthorsconcludedthatprenatalresidentialexposuretoUNGdevelopmentactivitywasassociatedwithtwopregnancyoutcomes,“addingtoevidencethatUNGdevelopmentmayimpacthealth”.Whilethisstudycontrolledforanumberofconfoundingfactors,thereispotentialforresidualconfoundingandthelackofexposuremeasuresinevitablyincreasestheriskofexposuremisclassification.
170. Stacyetal(2015)conductedaretrospectivecohortstudyofover15,000livebirthstoexaminetheassociationbetweenproximitytoUNGwithbirthweight,SGAandprematurityinSWPennsylvaniafortheperiod2007-2010.147Multivariatelinear(birthweight)orlogistical(SGAandprematurity)regressionanalysesfoundnosignificantassociationbetweenproximityanddensityofUGDwithprematurity.However,therewasanassociationbetweenlowerbirthweightandSGA,andbeinginthe‘mostexposed’quartilecomparedwiththe‘leastexposed’quartile.
171. Rabinowitz(2015)conductedahouseholdsurveyofresidents’self-reportedsymptomsand
viewsonenvironmentalqualityinWashingtonCountyPennsylvaniain2012duringaperiodinwhichtherewere624activewells(95%firstdrilledbetween2008-12).Homeswerevisitedtoestablishaccesstoground-fedwaterwellsandhouseholdsclassifiedaccordingtodistancefromthenearestwell:<1km,1–2km,or>2km.148Afteradjustmentforage,sex,householdeducationlevel,smokersinhousehold,jobtype,animalsinhousehold,andawarenessofenvironmentalrisk,householdproximitytowellsremainedassociatedwiththenumberofsymptomsreportedperperson<1km(p=0.002)and1–2km(p=0.05)comparedwith>2kmfromgaswellsrespectively.Livinginahousehold<1kmfromthenearestwellremainedassociatedwithincreasedreportingofskinconditions(OR=4.13;95%CI:1.38,12.3)andupperrespiratorysymptoms(OR=3.10;95%CI:1.45,6.65)whencomparedtohouseholds>2kmfromthenearestgaswell.Environmentalriskawarenesswasalsosignificantlyassociatedwithreportsofallgroupsofsymptoms.Thesamplesizeisrelativelysmallinepidemiologicaltermsandisalsolimitedbytheselfreportednatureofthesymptoms,potentialbiasandlackofdirectexposuremeasuresandtheissueofmultipletesting.However,theauthorsalsooutforwardanumberofplausibleexplanationsforthefindings.
172. BambergerandOswald(2012)usedanecologicalstudywithinterviewsoffarmersandfamiliesfromsixUSstatestogetherwithlimitedexposure,diagnosticandtoxicologicaldata.149Thefamilieswerereferredbyenvironmentalgroupsoractivistsandassociatedwithsevenconventionalwellsitesand18HVHFsites.Theresearchersalsoconductedtwoopportunisticnaturalexperimentswherelivestockhadbeenexposedandnon-exposedonthesamefarms.Exposureswereallegedtohaveoccurredthroughcontaminationofwater.Virtuallyallhealth
147StacySL,BrinkLL,LarkinJC,SadovskyY,GoldsteinBD,PittBR,etal.(2015)PerinatalOutcomesandUnconventionalNaturalGasOperationsinSouthwestPennsylvania.PLoSONE10(6):e0126425.doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0126425148Rabinowitzetal,2015.ProximitytoNaturalGasWellsandReportedHealthStatus:ResultsofaHouseholdSurveyinWashingtonCounty,Pennsylvania.EnvironmentalHealthPerspectivesvolume123(1):149BambergerandOswald(2012)Impactsofgasdrillingonanimalandhumanhealth.NEWSOLUTIONS,Vol.22(1)51-77,2012
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datawereself-reportedandincludedawiderangeofsymptomsforhumans(neurological,GI,dermatological,headaches,nosebleeds,fatigueandbackache)andanimals(mortality,reproductive,neurological,GI,anddermatologicalsymptoms).Outcomesreportedforthetwonaturalexperimentsincluded21/60cattleexposedtofrackingfluidhavingdiedand16havingfailedtocalveversuszerodeathsandonefailuretocalveinthe36non-exposedcattle(nosignificancelevelsreported).Twenty-oneoftheintervieweeswerefollowedup15-34monthsaftertheinitialinterviewandquestionedaboutsubsequentexposuresandhealtheffects.Therewerenosignificanthealthchangesreportedbythoselivinginareaswhereindustryactivityhadeitherincreasedorremainedconstant.Whereindustryactivityhaddecreasedthetotalnumberofreportedsymptomsinhumansandanimalsalsodecreased.
173. AfollowupstudybyBambergerandOswald(2015)setouttofollow-uponseveralcasestudiesreportedintheir2012publicationtoseeifhealthimpactshadchangedovertimeandwhetherthatcorrelatedwithanincrease,decrease,ornochangeinoilandgasindustrialactivity.150Overall,theyfoundthatsymptomsimprovedforfamiliesmovingoutofaffectedareasandthoselivinginareaswhereO&Gactivityhaddecreased.Inthecasesoffamiliesthatremainedinthesameareaandforwhichdrillingactivityeitherremainedthesameorincreased,nochangeinhealthimpactswasobserved.Thedistributionofsymptomswasunchangedforhumansandcompanionanimals,butwassignificantlychangedforfoodanimals.Reportsofreproductivefailurefell,whilerespiratoryissuesandstuntedgrowthwerereportedmoreoften.
174. AHealthImpactAssessmentconductedbyWitter(2013)followingconcernsreportedbycommunitiesinBattlementMesaestimatedanincreasedriskofnon-cancerhealtheffectsfromsubchronicVOCexposuresduringthewellcompletionperiodandasmallincreasedlifetimeexcesscancerrisk(10x10−6)forthoselivingclosetowellscomparedtothoselivingfartherfromwells(6x10−6).151Self-reportedshorttermsymptomssuchasheadaches,nausea,upperrespiratoryirritationandnosebleedsinresidentslivingwithinahalfmileofwelldevelopmentwereconsideredplausiblyassociatedwithodourevents.
175. HavingdeterminedthathouseholdsinproximitytogaswellsinOhiowereexposedtohigher
levelsofPAHs,Pauliketal(2015)usedquantitativeriskassessmenttoestimatetheexcesslifetimecancerrisksforresidentsandworkersassociatedwiththerecordedlevelsofPAHs.).Usinganassumedexposuredurationof225daysperyearforaperiodof25yearswithdailyexposuredurationsof8hours,theyestimatedanexcesslifetimecancerriskforoutdoorworkersrangingfrom40to59inamillion(dependingonwhethertheyworkedcloserorfurtherfromtheclosestactivewellpad).Theyalsoconcludedthattheriskintheproximalresidentialexposure
150BambergerandOswald(2015)Long-termimpactsofunconventionaldrillingoperationsonhumanandanimalhealth.JournalofEnvironmentalScienceandHealth,PartA(2015)50,447–459151WitterRZ,McKenzieL,etal(2013).Theuseofhealthimpactassessmentforacommunityundergoingnaturalgasdevelopment.AmJPubHealth103(6):1002–10.
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groupexceededtheEPAacceptablerangeandwas30%highercomparedtothedistalpopulation.152
I. Hazardsandrisksassociatedwithtraffic,noise,lightandodour
176. SGPinvolvescontinuousactivityconductedovertheentirecourseofaday,sevendaysa
week,forasustainedperiodoftime.153Thenoiseofcompressors,generatorsanddrilling;extensivetruckmovements;intrusiveun-naturallightingovernight;andthereleaseofbadsmellingchemicals,canhavesignificantnegativehealthandwellbeingimpactsonnearbycommunities,especiallyinthecontextofquietruralandsemi-ruralareas.
177. SGPintheUKisexpectedtobesitedcloseenoughtoamainswatersupplyandgasdistributionnetworkwhichwillconsiderablyreducethenumberoftruckmovementscomparedtomanyoperationsintheUS.Nonetheless,truck-heavytrafficisstillrequiredtoconstructwellpads(includingancillaryinfrastructuresuchasoffices,generators,compressorsandtanks),drilltheboreholes,andtransportfrackingfluid,silicaandwastewater.
178. The amount of traffic affecting any given area involved will depend on the number of
wellpadsandboreholesinthatarea,andthevolumeofwastewaterneedingtobetransportedaway.TheInstitutionofCivilEngineersestimatedthatasinglewellmightrequirebetween500and1,250HGVlorrymovements.154TheRoyalSocietyfortheProtectionofBirdsgiveafigureofbetween4,300and6,600trucktripsperwellpad.155Asnotedearlier,Watsonestimatedthatthevolume of fluid needing treatment from two exploratory fracking sites in Lancashire wouldinvolve about 1,440 tankerswith a capacity of 35,000 litres (360 tanker loadsperwell) and atotaltankermileageof470,000miles.
179. Potentialadverseimpactsfromtrucktraffic includecongestion;roadtrafficaccidents(withpotential spills of hazardous materials); as well as damage to roads, bridges and otherinfrastructure.OnestudyfromtheUSreportedthatautomobileandtruckaccidentrateswerebetween 15% and 65% higher in counties with shale gas drilling compared to thosewithout,includinganassociatedincreaseintrafficfatalities.156
180. In theBakkenshale region, therewasan increaseof68%of crashes involving trucks from
2006 to2010.157 In theEagleFord region, theTexasDepartmentofTransportation reporteda
152Pauliketal,2015ImpactofNaturalGasExtractiononPAHLevelsinAmbientAir.Environ.Sci.Technol.2015,49,5203−5210153Thetypicallifetimeforawellisvariableandnotwellestablished;butitseemstorangefromabouttwotofiveyearsdependingonhowmuchtheshaleisre-workedandthewellre-fracked.154InstitutionofCivilEngineers.WrittenSubmission,EnvironmentalAuditCommittee:EnvironmentalRisksofFrackingEnquiry(FRA070),para2.1155RoyalSocietyfortheProtectionofBirds.WrittenSubmissiontoEnvironmentalAuditCommittee:EnvironmentalRisksofFrackingEnquiry(FRA015),para3.6156GrahamJ,IrvingJ,TangX,SellersS,etal.(2015).IncreasedTrafficAccidentRatesAssociatedwithShaleGasDrillinginPennsylvania.AccidentAnalysisandPrevention,74:203–209.157RidlingtonEandRumplerJ,2013.FrackingbytheNumbers.EnvironmentAmericaResearch&PolicyCenter.http://www.environmentamerica.org/reports/ame/fracking-numbers
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40% increase in fatal motor vehicle accidents from 2008 to 2011.158 Likewise, the CrashReportingSystemfromthePennsylvaniaDepartmentofTransportationreportedanincreaseinaccidents involving heavy trucks between 1997 and 2011.159 Some data from Pennsylvaniaindicate that between 1997 and 2011, counties with a relatively large degree of shale gasdevelopmentexperiencedasignificant increase inthenumberoftotalaccidentsandaccidentsinvolvingheavytruckscomparedtocountieswithnoshalegasdevelopment.160
181. Noise,smellsandintrusivelightingarealsopotentialhazardsassociatedwithSGP.
182. Suchnuisancesarewell recognisedashealthhazardsandpotentially serious interferences
to normal day-to-day living.161 162 163 The stress and loss of sleep that may be caused bynuisancessuchastrafficcongestion,noiseandlightpollutionareformsofillhealthintheirownright,butarealsofactorsinthegenesisofarangeofotherdiseasesandillnesses.164165
183. TheHealth ImpactAssessmentconductedbyWitter(2013)followingconcernsreportedby
communities in Battlement Mesa found that increased traffic would increase the risk ofaccidents and reduce levels ofwalking and cycling. Recorded noise levels and complaint datasuggested that noise levels related to the site could be in the range associated with healthimpacts.166Thepaperalsoreporteda15%reductioninpropertyvaluesinthevicinityofthesiteand postulated that anxiety and stress levels would be increased as a result of communityconcerns.
184. The effects of a nuisance are source dependent, meaning that objective measures of
nuisancearenotsufficienttogaugeitspotentialeffect.Thesourceandunderlyingcauseofthenuisanceisanimportantinfluenceonthetypeanddegreeofimpactofthatnuisance.
158IncreasedTraffic,CrashesPromptNewCampaigntoPromoteSafeDrivingonRoadwaysNearOil,GasWorkAreas;TexasDepartmentofTransportation:Austin,TX,2013;http://www.txdot.gov/driver/share-road/be-safe-drive-smart.html.159AdgateJL,GoldsteinBDandMcKenzieLM,2014.PotentialPublicHealthHazards,ExposuresandHealthEffectsfromUnconventionalNaturalGasDevelopment.Environ.Sci.Technol48(15),pp8307–8320160Muehlenbachs,L.;Krupnick,A.J.ShalegasdevelopmentlinkedtotrafficaccidentsinPennsylvania.CommonResources.2013;http://common-resources.org/2013/shale-gas-development-linked-to-trafficaccidents-in-pennsylvania/161https://www.gov.uk/statutory-nuisance162WHO/EuropeanCommission.Burdenofdiseasefromenvironmentalnoise.QuantificationofhealthylifeyearslostinEurope.TheWHOEuropeanCentreforEnvironmentandHealth,BonnOffice,WHORegionalOfficeforEurope.ISBN:97892890022952011163http://ec.europa.eu/health/scientific_committees/opinions_layman/artificial-light/en/l-2/4-effects-health.htm#1164BattlementMesaHealthImpactsAssessment(Colorado,USA).Availableathttp://www.garfield-county.com/environmental-health/battlement-mesa-health-impact-assessment-ehms.aspx165GeeGC,Payne-SturgesDC,2004.EnvironmentalHealthDisparities:AFrameworkIntegratingPsychosocialandEnvironmentalConcepts.EnvironHealthPerspect.112(17):1645–1653166WitterRZ,McKenzieL,etal(2013).Theuseofhealthimpactassessmentforacommunityundergoingnaturalgasdevelopment.AmJPubHealth103(6):1002–10.
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185. ThelevelofstressthatwillbeexperiencedbyindividualsandcommunitiesaffectedbySGPcannotbepredictedwithprecision,butwillclearlydependonthescaleofSGPandthesizeandproximityofsurroundingcommunities.
186. When considering the health impacts of noise from a given source, the volume and
intensityofthenoise,whetheritisprolongedandcontinuous,howitcontrastswiththeambientnoise levels,andthetimeofdaymustbetaken intoaccount.Noise levelsdependnotonlyonthe source, but also on other factors such as distance from the source, air temperature,humidity,windgradient,andthetopography.
187. Both the sound levelof thenoise (objectivenoiseexposure) and its subjectiveperception
can influence the impact of noise on neuroendocrine homeostasis.167 In other words, noiseexposure can lead to adverse health outcomes through direct and indirect pathways. Non-physical effects of noise aremediated by psychological and psycho-physiological processes.168Noiseannoyancemayproduceahostofnegativeresponses,suchasfeelingangry,displeasure,anxious,helpless,distractedandtired.169170
188. Sleep disturbance is another common response among populations exposed to
environmental noise, and is associated with negative impacts on both health and quality oflife.171 Meaningful levels of sleep fragmentation and deprivation can adversely affect bothphysical andmental health, and are often considered themost severe non-auditory effect ofenvironmentalnoiseexposure.172
189. AccordingtoGoodmanetal(2016),thelocalimpactsofasinglewellpadontrafficmaybe
of short duration but large in magnitude.173 They also note that the effects of SGP onsurrounding communities will vary over time. While excess noise emissions may appearnegligible(b1dBA)whennormalisedoraveragedacrossthewholeperiodfromconstructiontocompletion,they“maybeconsiderable(+3.4dBA)inparticularhours,especiallyatnight”.
190. An investigationwhich collected data on noise levels at 625 feet away from thewell pad
centerofunconventional gasdrilling sites inWestVirginia found thataveragenoise levels forthedurationofworkateachsitewerenotabovetherecommended70dBAlevelrecommended
167Munzel,T.,T.Gori,W.Babisch,andM.Basner(2014),CardiovascularEffectsofEnvironmentalNoise
Exposure.EurHeartJ.,35,829–836;doi:10.1093/eurheartj/ehu030.168Shepherd,D.,D.Welch,K.N.Dirks,andR.Mathews(2010),ExploringtheRelationshipbetweenNoiseSensitivity,AnnoyanceandHealth-RelatedQualityofLifeinaSampleofAdultsExposedtoEnvironmentalNoise.IntJ.EnvironResPublicHealth,7,3579–3594;doi:10.3390/ijerph7103580169Babisch,W.(2002),TheNoise/StressConcept,RiskAssessmentandResearchNeeds.NoiseHealth,4,1–11.170Babisch,W.,G.Pershagen,J.Selander,D.Houthuijs,O.Breugelmans,E.Cadum,etal.(2013),Noise
Annoyance—AModifieroftheAssociationbetweenNoiseLevelandCardiovascularHealth?ScienceofTheTotalEnvironment,452–453,50–57;doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.02.034.
171Muzet,A.(2007),EnvironmentalNoise,SleepandHealth.SleepMedicineReviews,11,135–142;doi:10.1016/j.smrv.2006.09.001172Hume,K.I.,M.Brink,andM.Basner(2012),EffectsofEnvironmentalNoiseonSleep.NoiseHealth,14,297–
302;doi:10.4103/1463-1741.104897.173Goodmanetal,2016Investigatingthetraffic-relatedenvironmentalimpactsofhydraulic-fracturing(fracking)operations,EnvironmentInternational89–90(2016)248–260
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bytheEPAfornoiseexposure,butthatnoiseatsomelocationswasabovethelocallimitssetbysomecountiesandcities.174
K.Social,economicandlocalenvironmentaleffects
191. Shalegasproductioncanproducepositivehealtheffectsinlocalcommunitiesthroughsocialandeconomicpathwaysbygeneratingnewinvestment,profitsandemployment.EvidencefromtheUSshowsvariousformsofeconomicbenefitassociatedwiththeshalegasboom.
192. ItislesscommonlyunderstoodthatSGPalsoproducessocialandeconomicdis-benefitsandcan impact negatively on health by disrupting the social fabric of local communities, harmingothereconomicactivity,anddamagingpublicinfrastructure.
193. ThescaleandnatureofthesocialandeconomiceffectsofSGPwillbecontextspecificand
distributedunevenlywithinparticular localities. For somemembersofa community,SGPmayimprovesocialandeconomicwellbeing,whileforothersitmaydotheopposite.
194. Acomprehensiveassessmentoftheeconomiceffectsofshalegasdevelopmentinvolves
lookingatwhowillbenefitfromtheeconomicbenefitsandnewjobs;whowillsufferthecostsassociatedwithshalegasdevelopment,andwhowillpayforthedifferentcostsassociatedwithshalegasproduction.Thelatterincludesthetaxpayerwhohastofootthebillforalargeamountoftherequiredinfrastructureandthenecessarylevelsofeffectiveregulation.
195. Government policy is important in shaping the economic effects of SGP. In the UK, the
government has agreed that local communitieswill receive £100,000 perwell site during theexploration or appraisal stage aswell as 1% of revenues during the production stage. Finally,localcouncilswillalsobeallowedtokeep100%ofthebusinessratestheycollectfromshalegasoperators(doublethecurrent50%figure).
196. AhealthimpactassessmentofproposedshalegasdevelopmentinGarfieldCountry,
conductedbytheColoradoSchoolofPublicHealthnotedthattheproposalitselfhadalreadycaused“additionalstress”associatedwith:thelikelysocialeffectsofindustrialactivityinanon-industrialarea;perceivedlossofsharedcommunityidealsandcohesion;decliningpropertyvalues;andworriesaboutpossibleimpactsontheeducationsystem,populationnumbersandlocalcustoms.175Italsonotedthattheimpactsofagasindustryboomin2003-2008anditssubsequentdeclinein2009elsewhereinthestatehadincluded“increasedcrimeandsexuallytransmitteddiseases,decliningpropertyvaluesandimpactsontheeducationalenvironment”.
174McCawleyM,2013.Air,Noise,andLightMonitoringResultsforAssessingEnvironmentalImpactsofHorizontalGasWellDrillingOperations(ETD-10Project.http://wvwri.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/a-n-l-final-report-for-web.pdf175BattlementMesaHealthImpactsAssessment(Colorado,USA).Availableathttp://www.garfield-county.com/environmental-health/battlement-mesa-health-impact-assessment-ehms.aspx
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197. As part of a health impact assessment in Lancashire related to two exploratory fakingapplications, theDirector of PublicHealth noted that themain risks of the proposed projectswere“alackofpublictrustandconfidence,stressandanxietyfromuncertaintythatcouldleadto poor mental well-being, noise-related health effects due to continuous drilling and issuesrelatedtocapacityforflow-backwastewatertreatmentanddisposal”.176
198. This includes the contentious and divisive nature of SGP within the community causing
stress,anxietyandillnessalreadybeingexperiencedbylocalcommunities.IntheHealthImpactAssessment, theDirectorofPublicHealth reported that:“Theover-riding responsesabout thetwoproposedexplorationsitesvoicedbymembersof the local communitieswhoattended theworkshopswere those of fear, anxiety and stress, which are affecting theirmentalwellbeing,withsomepeopleexperiencingsleepdisturbanceanddepression”.177
199. Importantly, levels of stress and community division (and consequent negative mental
health effects) are amplified when levels of trust and transparency concerning industry andgovernmentactionarelow.178
200. AreviewofriskstocommunitiesfromshaleenergydevelopmentbyJacquet(2014)notes
thattheintroductionoftemporarybutintensiveextractiveindustriesintoanareacanproducebenefitsintheformofnewjobsandincreasedlocalrevenue,butalsobringavarietyofharms.Amongtheeffectswithnegativeimpactsisaninfluxoftemporaryworkers(oftenpredominantlycomposedofyoungmen)underminingcommunitycohesion,increasingthecostofliving,andraisinglevelsofalcoholanddruguse,mentalillnessandviolence.179
201. Otherstudieshavealsonotedthattheextractionofnon-renewablenaturalresourcessuch
asgasistypicallycharacterizedbya“boom-bust”cycle,andthataftertheinitialperiodofconstructionanddrilling,thereisadeclineinwell-paying,stablejobsduringtheproductionphase.180181182
176LancashireCountyCouncil,2014.PotentialhealthimpactsoftheproposedshalegasexplorationsitesinLancashire.Minutes,http://council.lancashire.gov.uk/ieIssueDetails.aspx?IId¼29552&PlanId¼0&Opt¼3#AI22656177BenCaveAssociates.OverviewreportonHIAworkconcerningplanningapplicationsfortemporaryshalegasexploration:healthimpactassessmentsupport,shalegasexploration.LancashireCountyCouncil,2September.Leeds:BenCaveAssociatesLtd.,2014,http://bit.ly/1BsZ3Au178FerrarK,Kriesky,ChristenC,MarshallLetal,2013.AssessmentandlongitudinalanalysisofhealthimpactsandstressorsperceivedtoresultfromunconventionalshalegasdevelopmentintheMarcellusShaleregion.Int.J.Occup.Environ.Health2013.19(2):104−12.Doi:10.1179/2049396713y.0000000024.179JacquetJ,2009.Energyboomtownsandnaturalgas:ImplicationsforMarcellusShalelocalgovernmentsandruralcommunities.TheNortheastRegionalCenterforRuralDevelopment:UniversityPark,PA,.Availablefrom:http://aese.psu.edu/nercrd/publications/rdp/rdp43/view.180AdgateJ,GoldsteinB,McKenzieL,2014.PotentialPublicHealthHazards,ExposuresandHealthEffectsfromUnconventionalNaturalGasDevelopment.Environ.Sci.Technol.48(15):8307-8320.Doi:10;1021/es404621d.181HouseofRepresentativesStandingCommitteeonRegionalAustralia.2013.Cancerofthebushorsalvationforourcities?Fly-in,fly-outanddrive-in,drive-outworkforcepracticesinregionalAustralia.Canberra:CommonwealthofAustralia.http://www.aph.gov.au/parliamentary_business/committees/house_of_representatives_committees?url=ra/fifodido/report.htm
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202. Concernsaboutboom-bustcycleswerealsodescribedbyHaefeleandMorton(2009)intheir
assessmentofthelargeincreaseinnaturalgaswellsintheRockyMountainregionfrom1998-2008.Areviewofspecificcasestudieswhichhighlightedthespectreofasubsequentlocaleconomy‘bust’precipitatedbyadropinnaturalgasprices.183Theyconcludedthatthesamenaturalgasindustry‘boom’thatbringssomebenefitsforruralcommunitiesalsobringsaninfluxofnon-localworkers;increasedcrime,housingcostsanddemandforpublicservices;andadditionalburdensonlocalinfrastructure.
203. Increasedpressureonlocalpublicservicescanalsoprecipitatenegativeknock-oneffects.
AnecdotalevidencefromtheUSnotesthattheshalegasindustryhassubjectedlocalmunicipalitiestoarangeofdemandsforadditionalornewservices,andthattheadministrativecapacity,staffing,equipment,andexpertiseneededtomeetthosedemandscanoverwhelmavailablepublicbudgets.184Likewise,healthservicesandPublicHealthdepartmentsmustbepreparedtoreceiveandrespondtoincidentreportsandcitizenconcernsaboutenvironmentalhealthissues.
204. Oneareaofimpacthasbeenonlocalroadsandbridgeswhicharedamagedandworndown
bytheheavytrafficassociatedwithshalegas.IntheBarnettShaleregionofTexas,ithasbeenreportedthatearlydeteriorationofcitystreetshasincreasedtheburdenontaxpayersbecause,eventhoughaccessroadstothewellsitesarebuiltandmaintainedbytheoperators,manyofthejourneysmadebythetruckswereonpublicroadsthatwerenotdesignedtowithstandthevolumeorweightofthisleveloftrucktraffic.185Abramzonetal(2014)estimatedthatMarcellusUNG-relatedheavytrucktrafficcausedbetween$13-23,000ofdamageperwelltostatemaintainedroadsin2011.186
205. SGP is a spatially intense activity that can alter the character and aesthetic of the
surrounding landscape, affect wildlife and biodiversity, and cause habitat fragmentation. Theeconomicdevelopmentofgasandoilfromshaleformationscanresultinhighwelldensitiesofatleastonewellper80surfaceacres,overlargecontinuousareasofaplay.187
182HossainD,GormanD,ChapelleB,etal.ImpactoftheminingindustryonthementalhealthoflandholdersandruralcommunitiesinsouthwestQueensland.AustralasPsychiatry2013;21:32-37.183Haefele,M.andP.Morton.2009.Theinfluenceofthepaceandscaleofenergydevelopmentoncommunities:LessonsfromthenaturalgasdrillingboomintheRockyMountains.WesternEconomicsForum8(2):1-13.184ChristophersonandRightor,2011.HowShouldWeThinkAbouttheEconomicConsequencesofShaleGasDrilling?CornellUniversity185ChristophersonandRightor,2011.HowShouldWeThinkAbouttheEconomicConsequencesofShaleGasDrilling?CornellUniversity186Abramzonetal2014EstimatingTheConsumptiveUseCostsofShaleNaturalGasExtractiononPennsylvaniaRoadways.JournalofInfrastructureSystems10.1061/(ASCE)IS.1943-555X.0000203,06014001.187Ingraffeaetal,2014.AssessmentandriskanalysisofcasingandcementimpairmentinoilandgaswellsinPennsylvania,2000–2012.www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1323422111
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206. LaveandLutz(2014)consideredthatwhilethelandscapedisturbanceofUNGsitesmaybesmall compared to someother landuseactivities, fragmentationofecosystemswasextensiveandrequiresfurtherresearch.188
207. Thesocial,healthandeconomicimpactofdamaginggreenspaceand‘ecosystemservices’,undermining leisure and tourism, and eroding the intrinsic value of the natural integrity andbeautyoftheenvironmentmayalsobenotable(althoughtheseconsiderationsapplytoalltypesof energydevelopment). Thehealthbenefit of theavailability andaccess to green spaceshasbeendocumented.189190
208. The importance of social, psychological and emotional attachments to people’s
environmentsisrecognisedasanimportantdeterminantofhealth.191Largescaledevelopmentsmaybringlossofamenity,includingimpactonlandscapesandvisualimpact.Thehealthimpactof unwelcome environmental change depends on the nature of the amenity lost, but isexacerbated by the perception of powerlessness over the change and in cases wherecommunitiesstronglyidentitywiththeirsenseofplace.192193
209. There is also a growing literature describing the pathways bywhich psycho-social factors,influenced by thewider social and physical environment, impact on both physical health andmentalwellbeing.194 195196 It is also recognised that levelsof trust, community cohesion, socialcapital andagency can influencepsychological andemotional states that influencehealthandwellbeing.197198199
188LaveandLutz,2014.HydraulicFracturing:ACriticalPhysicalGeographyReview.GeographyCompass8/10:739–754,10.1111/gec3.12162189MitchellR,PophamF,2008.Effectofexposuretonaturalenvironmentonhealthinequalities:anobservationalpopulationstudy.TheLancet.372:1655-1660.Doi:10.10166/50140-6736(08)61689-x.190CABE,2010.Communitygreen:usinglocalspacestotackleinequalityandimprovehealth.London.Availablefrom:http://www.openspace.eca.ed.ac.uk/pdf/appendixf/OPENspacewebsite_APPENDIX_F_resource_1.pdf.191BaldwinC,2014.Assessingimpactsonpeople’srelationshipstoplaceandcommunityinhealthimpactassessment:ananthropologicalapproach.ImpactAssessmentandProjectAppraisal,2014http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14615517.2014.983725192WarsiniS,MillsJ,UsherK.Solastalgia:livingwiththeenvironmentaldamagecausedbynaturaldisasters.PrehospDisasterMed.2014:29(1);87-90.193Albrechtetal,2007.Solastalgia:thedistresscausedbyenvironmentalchange.AustralasianPsychiatry194SiegristandMarmot,2004.Healthinequalitiesandthepsychosocialenvironment—twoscientificchallenges.SocialScience&Medicine58(2004)1463–1473195WhiteheadM,etal,2016.Howcoulddifferencesin‘controloverdestiny’leadtosocio-economicinequalitiesinhealth?Asynthesisoftheoriesandpathwaysinthelivingenvironment.Health&Place39(2016)51–61196LynneFriedli,2009.Mentalhealth,resilienceandinequalities.WorldHealthOrganisation.197KawachiIandBerkmanL,2001.Socialtiesandmentalhealth.JUrbanHealth.2001Sep;78(3):458–467.198Muruyamaetal,2012.SocialCapitalandHealth:AReviewofProspectiveMultilevelStudies.JEpidemiol.2012;22(3):179–187.199GiordanoandLindström,2016.Trustandhealth:testingthereversecausalityhypothesis.JEpidemiolCommunityHealth2016;70:10-16
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210. There is some, but limited, literature assessing the ecological impacts of shale gasdevelopmentintheUS.200201202203204205206207208Someadverseeffectsonagro-ecosystemsandanimalhusbandryhavealsobeenidentified.209
211. Followingastudy210thatreportedadecline incownumbersandmilkproduction indrilled
areas, Finkel et al (2013) compared the effect of UNG activities on milk production in fivePennsylvania counties with the most unconventional drilling activity were six neighbouringcountieswithmuchfewerwells.211Theyfoundthatthenumberofcowsandtotalvolumeofmilkproduction declined more in the most fracked counties compared to the six comparisoncounties. The authors recognised the weaknesses of their study but recommended furtherresearchgiventheimportanceofthemilkproductionindustryinPennsylvania.
212. Anotherconcernistheuseofconsiderablequantitiesofwaterposinglocalisedriskstowater
supplies.212TherearemanyfiguresusedtodescribetheamountofwaterrequiredforSGP.TheaverageestimatedwaterusagefordrillingandhydraulicfracturingawellintheMarcellusShaleissaidtorangefrom13,000m3to21,000m3withlimitsof9,000m3to30,000m3foratypical1,200mhorizontalwell.213AccordingtotheUKTaskForceonShaleGas,awellneedsbetween10,000and30,000m3(twotosixmilliongallons).TheInstitutionofCivilEngineers,inawritten
200JonesNFandPejcharL,2013.Comparingtheecologicalimpactsofwindandoil&gasdevelopment:alandscapescaleassessment.PLoSONE8(11),e81391.201JonesI,BullJ,Milner-GullandE,EsipovA,SuttleK,2014.Quantifyinghabitatimpactsofnaturalgasinfrastructuretofacilitatebiodiversityoffsetting.Ecol.Evol.4(1):79–90.Doi:10.1002.ece3.884.202SoutherS,TingleyM,PopescuV,Haymanetal,2014.Bioticimpactsofenergydevelopmentfromshale:researchprioritiesandknowledgegaps.Front.Ecol.Environ.12(6):330–338.Doi:10.1890/130324.203HamiltonL,DaleB,PaszkowskiC,2011.Effectsofdisturbanceassociatedwithnaturalgasextractionontheoccurrenceofthreegrasslandsongbirds.AvianConserv.Ecol.6(1):7.Doi:10.5751:ACE-00458-060107.204PapouliasD,VelascoA,2013.HistopathologicalanalysisoffishfromAcornForkCreek,Kentucky,exposedtohydraulicfracturingfluidreleases.Southeast.Nat.12(sp4):92–111.Doi:10.1656/0(!.012s413.205Weltman-FahsM,TaylorJ,2013.HydraulicfracturingandbrooktrouthabitatintheMarcellusShaleregion:potentialimpactsandresearchneeds.Fisheries.38(1):4–15.Doi:10.1080/03632415.2013.750112.206BrittinghamM,MaloneyK,FaragA,HarperD,BowenZ,2014.Ecologicalrisksofshaleoilandgasdevelopmenttowildlife,aquaticresourcesandtheirhabitats.Environ.Sci.Technol.48(19):11034–11047.207RacicotA,Babin-RousselV,DauphinaisJ,JolyJ-Setal,2014.Aframeworktopredicttheimpactsofshalegasinfrastructuresontheforestfragmentationofanagroforestregion.Environ.Manag.53(5):1023–1033.Doi:10.1007/s00267-014-0250-x.208KiviatE,2013.RiskstobiodiversityfromhydraulicfracturingfornaturalgasintheMarcellusandUticashales.AnnNYAcadSci.1286:1–14.Doi:10.1111/nyas.12146.209BambergerM,OswaldRE,2012.ImpactsofGasDrillingonHumanandAnimalHealth.NewSolutions22,51–77.210AdamsandT.W.Kelsey,PennsylvaniaDairyFarmsandMarcellusShale,2007-2010,2012,PennStateCooperativeExtension,CollegeofAgriculturalSciences;MarcellusEducationFactSheet,http://pubs.cas.psu.edu/freepubs/pdfs/ee0020.pdf(accessedJune15,2012)211Finkeletal,2013.MARCELLUSSHALEDRILLING’SIMPACTONTHEDAIRYINDUSTRYINPENNSYLVANIA:ADESCRIPTIVEREPORT.NEWSOLUTIONS,Vol.23(1)189-201,2013212CharteredInstituteofEnvironmentalHealth(CIEH)andScientistsforGlobalResponsibility(SGR)21/7/2014‘ShaleGasandfracking-examiningtheevidence’213NewYorkStateDept.ofEnvironmentalConservation.PreliminaryRevisedDraftSupplementalGenericEnvironmentalImpactStatementoftheOil,GasandSolutionMiningRegulatoryProgram:WellPermitIssuanceforHorizontalDrillingandHigh-VolumeHydraulicFracturingtoDeveloptheMarcellusShaleandOtherLow-PermeabilityGasReservoirs.October5,2009.RevisedJuly2011.
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submission toEnvironmentalAuditCommittee,gavea figureof10,000 to25,000m3.TheCCCgivesfiguresofbetween1,200and45,000m3perwell,quotingKing.214
213. The amount of water used per well varies depending on geological characteristics, wellconstruction (depth and length) and fracturing operations (chemicals used and fracturestimulationdesign).215216Ofthetotalwater,10%isusedfordrilling,89%forfracking,andtherest isconsumedby infrastructure. In regionswhere local,naturalwatersourcesarescarceordedicatedtootheruses,thelimitedavailabilityofwatermaybeasignificantimpedimenttogasresourcedevelopment.217218
214. Broderick et al (2011) estimate that a multi-stage fracturing operation for a single well
requiresaround9,000-29,000m3.219Theyalsoestimatethat inorder toprovide9bcm/yearofshale gas for 20 years in the UK, an estimated 1.25 to 1.65 million m3 of water is neededannually,whichwouldaddarelativelysmallamounttothe905millionm3ofwaterabstractedannuallybyindustryasawhole.Thus,althoughthevolumesofwaterthatwouldbeusedsoundslarge,whensetinthecontextofoverallwateruseinotherindustries,itisnot.220
215. Nonetheless,alargenumberofactivewellsmayhavethepotentialtocreatelocalisedand
occasionalperiodsofwaterstress.
216. Both the economic and commercial viability and benefits of shale gas production aredependentonarangeofvariables includingtheactualproductivityofthewells, futureenergymarket conditions, and the policy / regulatory environment within which natural gas isextracted.Production inshaleplays isunpredictableandonlyasmallnumberofwellsmaybeabletoproducecommercialvolumesofgasovertimewithoutre-fracking,whichisverycostly.
217. The claims of economic development and public benefit need to be looked at carefully
because theyareoftenproducedby thosewitha vested interest andarebasedonoptimisticassumptions. Severalpapershavenoted that claimsaboutemployment generationassociated
214King(2012)HydraulicFracturing101,http://www.kgs.ku.edu/PRS/Fracturing/Frac_Paper_SPE_152596.pdf215Freyman,M.,2014Hydraulicfracturing&waterstress:waterdemandbythenumbers(2014)http://www.ceres.org/issues/water/shale-energy/shale-and-water-maps/hydraulic-fracturing-water-stress-water-demand-by-the-numbers(accessed10.20.14)216TorresYadavandKhan2016.Areviewonriskassessmenttechniquesforhydraulicfracturingwaterandproducedwatermanagementimplementedinonshoreunconventionaloilandgasproduction.ScienceoftheTotalEnvironment539(2016)478–493217StuartME,2011.PotentialgroundwaterimpactfromexploitationofshalegasintheUK.BritishGeologicalSurveyOpenReport,OR/12/001.218NicotJP,ScanlonBR,2012.Wateruseforshale-gasproductioninTexas,U.S.Environ.Sci.Technol.2012,46(6),3580−3586.219Brodericketal,2011.Shalegas:anupdatedassessmentofenvironmentalandclimatechangeimpacts.TyndallCentreUniversityofManchester220CharteredInstitutionofWaterandEnvironmentalManagement,2015.WrittenSubmissiontoEnvironmentalAuditCommittee:EnvironmentalRisksofFrackingEnquiry(FRA006),para4
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withshalegasintheUShaveusuallybeenover-stated,221222223andthatinitialeconomicboomsoftentransformintolong-termsocialandeconomicdeclines.224225
218. Kinnaman’s analysis226 of six industry-sponsored reports (three ofwhich had an academicaffiliation) that highlighted the economic benefits of UNG identified several shortcomingsincluding: a) assumptions that all the lease and royalty payments and the great majority ofindustryexpenditureisspent locally;b)thatthelevelofwellactivity isafunctionsolelyofthecurrentgasprice;c)erroneousinterpretationofdata;d)disregardoftheimpactonotherusersof the resource;ande) failure toassesswhether theoverallbenefitsofgasextractionexceedthe costs. Kinnaman considered the consistent use of the term ‘conservative estimates’ inindustry-sponsored reportage to be misleading and that estimates were more likely to be‘overstated’.
219. LaveandLutz(2014)notedthatwhereresearchonthesocialeffectsofUNGisavailable,itis
notnecessarilyof adequatequalityand thatmostof theeconomicanalysis is speculativeandnotsubjecttoacademicpeer-review.227Thelackoffundingforindependentresearchhasleftaknowledge vacuum which has been largely filled by industry funded or produced literature.However,theyalsoclaimthatthelimitedresearchonthesocialandculturalimpactsofUNGtobe overwhelmingly negative, and note that government agencies often behave more likeadvocatesfortheindustrythanmediatorsinthedebate.
220. Hughes (2013) also concluded that industry and government projections are ‘wildly
optimistic’.228 His analysis, based on data for 65,000 shale wells from an industry andgovernment production database, showed well and field productivity declining rapidly,productioncostsinmanycasesexceedingcurrentgasprices,andproductionrequiringincreaseddrilling andmajor capital input tomaintain production. He identifies a familiar pattern of an
221WeberJ,2012.TheeffectsofanaturalgasboomonemploymentandincomeinColorado,Texas,andWyoming.EnergyEcon.34(5),1580–1588(Sep).Doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2011.11.013.222PatridgeM,WeinsteinA,2013.Economicimplicationsofunconventionalfossilfuelproduction.NationalAgricultural&RuralDevelopmentPolicyCenter.Availablefrom:http://www.nardep.info/uploads/Brief15_EconomicsFossilFuel.pdf.223 MauroF,WoodM,MattinglyM,PriceM,HerzenbergSandWardS,2013.ExaggeratingtheEmploymentImpactsofShaleDrilling:HowandWhy.Multi-StateShaleResearchCollaborative.Availablefromhttps://pennbpc.org/sites/pennbpc.org/files/MSSRC-Employment-Impact-11-21-2013.pdf224JacquetJ,2009.EnergyBoomtowns&NaturalGas:ImplicationsforMarcellusShaleLocalGovernments&RuralCommunities.NERCRDRuralDevelopmentPaperN°43.Availablefrom:http://aese.psu.edu/nercrd/publications/rdp/rdp43.225ChristophersonS,RightorN,2011.Howshouldwethinkabouttheeconomicconsequencesofshalegasdrilling?AComprehensiveEconomicImpactAnalysisofNaturalGasExtractionintheMarcellusShale.WorkingPaper,CityandRegionalPlanning,CornellUniversity.Availablefrom:http://cce.cornell.edu/EnergyClimateChange/NaturalGasDev/Documents/PDFs/Comprehensive%20Economic%20Analysis%20project.pdf.226KinnamanT,2011.Theeconomicimpactofshalegasextraction:Areviewofexistingstudies.EcologicalEconomics70(2011)1243–1249227LaveandLutz,2014.HydraulicFracturing:ACriticalPhysicalGeographyReview.GeographyCompass8/10(2014):739–754,10.1111/gec3.12162228HughesDJ,2013.Arealitycheckontheshalerevolution.Nature494,307–308
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initialdrillingboom,exploitationof‘sweetspots’(small,highlyproductiveareas)followedbythedrilling of more marginal areas, and then rapid decline within a few years. The investmentrequiredfornewwellstomaintainsupplyoftenexceedssalesincome,whichinturnnecessitateshighergasprices.
221. Paredesetal(2015)usedtwoeconometricmethodstoisolateandquantifytheeffectof
UNGonlocalincomeandemployment.229TheyfoundthatthedirectincomeeffectsofMarcellusshaleUNGdevelopmenthadanegligibleincomeimpactonthegeneralpopulation.Whilelocalemploymenteffectsweremoresubstantial,manyofthenewjobswerelowpaidandtakenupbyoutsiderswhowouldtendtospend/sendmuchoftheirincomehome.
222. Sovacool(2014),ontheotherhand,describedseveraleconomicbenefitsofanumberof
shalebooms.Theseincludedabout29,000newjobsand$238mintaxrevenuesinPennsylvaniain2008;acontributionof$4.8billiontogrossregionalproduct,57,000newjobsand$1.7billionintaxrevenueacrossWestVirginiaandPennsylvaniain2009;and$11.1billioninannualoutputrepresenting8.1%oftheregion’seconomyand100,000jobsintheBarnettShaleinTexasin2011.230However,thereviewalsoidentifiedthecomplexitiesofassessingeconomicimpactandtheexpenseofcostoverruns,accidentsandleakages,andconcludedthatthebenefitsofSGPareuncertainandconditionalonthe“right”mixoftechnologicalsystems;operatingprocedures,governmentregulations,andcorporatevaluesateachlocality.
223. Wrenetal(2015)notedthatthevariedfindingsintheliteratureaboutemploymenteffects
wasrelatedinparttodifficultiesincapturingaccuratedataaboutworkers’placeofresidenceandfoundthatincreasesinemploymentmayhavelittlebenefittothoselocalitiesdirectlyfacedwiththecostsofUNGactivity.TheiranalysisoflocalemploymentinPennsylvaniafoundthatwhileUNGactivityhadhadapositiveeffectonemployment,itwasonlystatisticallysignificantforcountiesinwhich90ormorewellsweredrilledinagivenyear.
224. HardyandKelsey(2014)foundmodestemploymentincreasesincountieswithdrilling
activityinMarcellusshaledevelopmentinPennsylvania,andthatmanyofthenewjobsweregoingtonon-residents,leavingminimalemploymentimpactonresidents.231
225. MunasibandRickman(2014)widereconomiceffectsofunconventionalshaleoilandgas
explorationinArkansas,NorthDakotaandPennsylvaniaonemployment,incomeandpovertyrates,232usingasyntheticcontrolmethodwasusedtoassesseconomicactivityintheabsenceofincreasedunconventionalenergydevelopment.TheyfoundsignificantpositiveeffectsforalloilandgascountiesinNorthDakotaacrossallregionallabourmarketmetrics,butthatpositive
229Paredesetal2013.Incomeandemploymenteffectsofshalegasextractionwindfalls:EvidencefromtheMarcellusregion.EnergyEconomics47(2015)112–120230Sovacool2014.Cornucopiaorcurse?Reviewingthecostsandbenefitsofshalegashydraulicfracturing(fracking)RenewableandSustainableEnergyReviews37(2014)249–264231HardyandKelsey2014.Localandnon-localemploymentassociatedwithMarcellusShaleDevelopmentinPennsylvania.PolicyBriefpublishedbyNationalAgricultural&RuralDevelopmentPolicyCenter232MunasibandRickman,2014RegionalEconomicImpactsoftheShaleGasandTightOilBoom:ASyntheticControlAnalysis
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effectsinArkansaswereonlyidentifiedincountieswiththemostintensiveshalegasproduction.Theyfeltthatthepositiveimpactsonemploymentweregenerallysmallerthanthoseestimatedinotheranalysesandthatlocalinflationandothereffectshadanegativeimpactonthelocalqualityoflife.Inaddition,theyfoundnosignificantpositiveeffectsinPennsylvania.Thestudyalsohighlightedthatareaswithsignificantlevelsofeconomicactivitysuchasagricultureandtourism,maybemorelikelytoexperienceadverseeconomiceffects.
226. Weber’s(2012)studyofcountiesinColorado,TexasandWyomingwithincreasedUNGfoundmodestincreasesinemploymentandincome.233Analysisofgasdepositandproductiondatawitheconomicdatafor1998/99to2007/08suggestedthecreationoffewerthan2.5jobspermilliondollarsofgasproduction,anannualemploymentincreaseof1.5%onpre-boomlevels.
227. AsubsequentstudybyWeberetal(2014)assessedthebenefitsoftheoilandUNGboomin
ruralNorthDakotainthe2010swhichwasestimatedtohavecontributedoverabilliondollarstotheState’sfinancesandcreated65,000newjobs.234Thisregionhadseenpreviousoilrelatedboomsinthe1950sandlate1970swhichhadledtohousingshortages,moreexpensivepublicservices,andalegacyofcostsforobsoleteinfrastructure.Theirstudyoftheassociatedsocialeffectsoftheboom,throughinterviewswithsocialworkersandDirectorsofSocialCare,foundhousingtobearecurrenttheme,especiallyinadequatesupplyandhighhousingcosts.SocialServicesDirectorsalsoreportedanincreaseinchildprotectionissues,increasingdaycareshortageandadiminishingsupplyoffosterhomes,whiledatafromthepolicesuggested‘troublingincreasesindomesticviolenceissuesdisproportionatetopopulation’.Reportedbenefitsincludedeconomicdevelopment,partnershipswiththeindustry,anddecreasesinbenefitsupport.However,thesewereregardedas‘mixedblessings’.Theauthorsnotedthelimitationsinherentinthedesignoftheirsmallcross-sectionalstudy.
228. Muehlenbachsetal(2015)usedamethodologytoquantifytherealorperceivedeffectsofshalegasdevelopmentonpropertypricesinPennsylvania.235Theyhadaccesstoasubstantialpropertysalesdatasetandusedbothatechniquetocontrolforpotentialconfounders.Theyfoundthatthepricesofhomesdependentongroundwaterwerenegativelyaffectedbyproximitytoshalegasdevelopments(upto-16.5%forthosewithin1km),whilethevalueofhomesonamainssupplyshowedasmallincrease.However,thelatterwasonlyapplicabletohomesproximaltoproducingwellswhichreceivedhomeownerroyaltypayments,andifthewellswerenotvisiblefromtheproperty.
229. Jonesetal(2014)reviewedthepotentialimplicationsforUKpropertyandinvestmentina
professionalbriefingnotebasedoninternetresources,peerreviewedpapersandgovernment
233WeberJ,2012.TheeffectsofanaturalgasboomonemploymentandincomeinColorado,Texas,andWyoming.EnergyEconomics34(2012)1580–1588234Weberetal,2014.Shalegasdevelopmentandhousingvaluesoveradecade:EvidencefromtheBarnettShale.235MuehlenbachsL,SpillerEandTimminsC,2015.TheHousingMarketImpactsofShaleGasDevelopmentAmericanEconomicReview2015,105(12):3633–3659
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agencyresearch.236Theynotedreasonsforconcernaboutadequateandaffordableinsurancecoverandproblemswithobtainingmortgagesforhomesincloseproximitytoshalegasoperations.TheUKGovernment’sowninvestigationintotheimpactofSGPonruralcommunitieswasonlyreleasedunderalegalchallenge,butwhenitwasreleaseditwasinaheavilyredactedform.237
230. Barth(2013)notedthatUNGactivitiesintheMarcellusShaleareacouldincreasedemand
andcostsforrentalpropertiesaswellasareductioninhouseprices,difficultiesinobtainingpropertyinsuranceandanegativeimpactonfutureconstructionandeconomicdevelopment.238WhileBarthrecognisedthatshalegaswillgeneratesomelocalandregionaljobsandrevenues,thelevelsofbothhaveprobablybeenexaggeratedintheindustry-fundedliterature.HenotesthatsomestudieshaveusedinappropriateeconomicmodellingassumptionssuchasusingcostsfromTexaswhichhasalongestablishedextractiveindustryinfrastructureandapplyingthemtoareaswithoutinfrastructure.Inaddition,costsfromsuchareaslikeTexaswhichispredominantlynon-urbanwithsmallerpopulationsandwithlowereconomicdiversitywouldbedifferentfromareasdependentonagriculture,tourism,organicfarming,hunting,fishing,outdoorrecreation,andwineandbrewing.
231. Thesocialdesirabilityofdifferentformsofenergyhasalsobeenstudiedthroughvarious
economicchoicestudies,andthereissomeliteraturesuggestingthathouseholdsarewillingtopayapremiumforelectricityfromrenewableenergysourcessuchaswind,solarandbiomass.239240241
232. Popkinetal(2013)exploredthelikelywelfareimpactsofusingUNGextractedbyhydraulic
fracturingforhouseholdelectricityinaneconomicchoiceexperimentinvolving515householdsfromnineNewYorkcountiesintheMarcellusShaleregionand18outsidetheshaleregion.242Theanalysiscontrolledforage,gender,education,placeofresidenceandproximitytoUNGsites.TheyfoundrespondentsbeingwillingtoacceptUNGderivedelectricityprovidedtheirmonthlybillswerereducedbybetween$22-$48(meanbill$124)withtherequireddiscountingincreasingwithincreasedproximitytoUNGsites.Respondentsalsogenerallyexpressedapreferencetocontinuewiththestatusquo(outofstatefossilfuelandnuclearenergy).
236JonesP,ComfortDandHillierD,2014.FrackingforshalegasintheUK:propertyandinvestmentissues’.JournalofPropertyInvestment&Finance,32,5:505–517237RuralCommunityPolicyUnit,2014.ShaleGasRuralEconomyImpacts.https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/408977/RFI6751_Draft_Shale_Gas_Rural_economy_impact_paper.pdf238BarthJ,2013.Theeconomicimpactofshalegasdevelopmentonstateandlocaleconomies:Benefits,costsanduncertainties.NewSolutions,Vol.23(1)85-101,2013239SusaetaA,etal,2011.Randompreferencestowardsbioenergyenvironmentalexternalities:AcasestudyofwoodybiomassbasedelectricityintheSouthernUnitedStates.EnergyEconomics32,1111-1118.240BorchersAM,etal,2007.Doeswillingnesstopayforgreenenergydifferbysource?EnergyPolicy35(6),3327-3334.241ScarpaandWillis,2010.Willingness-to-payforrenewableenergy:PrimaryanddiscretionarychoiceofBritishhouseholds'formicro-generationtechnologies.EnergyEconomics32(2010)129–136242Popkinetal,2013.SocialcostsfromproximitytohydraulicfracturinginNewYorkState.EnergyPolicy62:62–69
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233. ThisnegativelocalperceptionofUNGisalsoreflectedinBernsteinetal’s(2013)contingentvaluationstudyofarandomsampleofSusquehannaValleyPennsylvaniaresidents’(n=186)WTPforeliminatingtherisksofwaterpollutionduetohydraulicfracking.243Thisfoundthatresidentswerewillingtopayupto$10.50amonthforadditionalsafetymeasurestoprotectlocalwatershedsfromshalegasextraction.
L.Fugitiveemissions
234. Fugitiveemissionsaregases(mainlymethane,butalsootherhydrocarbonssuchasethane)thatareunintentionallylosttotheatmosphereduringtheprocessofgasextraction,collection,processingandtransportation.Theycanemanatefromaboveorbelowtheground.
235. Abovetheground,leaksmayarisefromanyofthe55to150connectionsbetweenpiecesofequipmentsuchaspipes,heaters,meters,dehydrators,compressorsandvapour-recoveryapparatusofatypicalwell.244Pressurereliefvalvesarealsodesignedtopurposefullyventgas.
236. Leaksandemissionsalsooccurinthedistributionsystemusedtosupplygastoend
consumers.LargeemissionsofVOCshavebeenobservedonoilandgas(O&G)wellpadsbecauseofleaksfromdehydrators,storagetanks,compressorstations,andpneumaticdevicesandpumps,aswellasevaporationandflowbackpondwater.245TheEPAreportthatpneumaticdevicescontributeto14%ofgassupply-chainemissionsintheUS,whilecompressorsareusedtoboostthegaspressureandareestimatedtoberesponsiblefor20%ofemissions.246
237. Heathelal’s(2015)reviewoftheUSGHGIconcludedthatapproximately43%oftotal
methaneemissionsacrossthenaturalgasindustryerefromcompressorsandcompressorstations.247
238. Smallvolumesofgasmayalsobegeneratedduringthedevelopmentofthewell,mostof
whichislikelytobeburnedinaflare.Generallyspeaking,thereislittleinformationaboutemissionsassociatedwithexploration,andmoststudiesignoretheGHGemissionsassociatedwiththisphaseofSGP.248249However,itshouldnotbeassumedthatemissionsfromexplorationwillbelow,especiallyforanyextendedwelltests.250
243BernsteinP,KinnamanTC&WuM(2013).Estimatingwillingnesstopayforriveramenitiesandsafetymeasuresassociatedwithshalegasextraction.EasternEconomicJournal,39(1),28-44.244HowarthandIngraffea2011.Methaneandthegreenhouse-gasfootprintofnaturalgasfromshaleformations.ClimaticChange(2011)106:679–690245WarnekeC,GeigerF,EdwardsPM,DubeW,etal,2014.VolatileorganiccompoundemissionsfromtheoilandnaturalgasindustryintheUintahBasin,Utah:oilandgaswellpademissionscomparedtoambientaircomposition.Atmos.Chem.Phys.14,10977e10988.http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-10977-2014.246SGI(2015),MethaneandCO2emissionsfromthenaturalgassupplychain,http://www.sustainablegasinstitute.org/publications/white-paper-1/247Heath,Warner,SteinbergandBrandt,2015.EstimatingUSMethaneEmissionsfromtheNaturalGasSupplyChain,http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy16osti/62820.pdf248DJMacKay&TJStonePotentialGreenhouseGasEmissionsAssociatedwithShaleGasExtractionandUse(DECC,2013)
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239. Keyemissionsourcesinthegasproductionprocessarefromwellcompletions(when
methaneisreleasedasfrackingfluidreturnstothesurfacepriortogasflowingatahighproductionrate),workovers(periodsoftimewhenthewellundergoesmaintenance,cleaningandre-fracturing)andliquidsunloading(theremovalofanybuild-upofliquidsthataccumulatesatthebottomofthewellandimpedestheflowofgas).
240. IntheUS,thegasmixedintheflowbackfluidhashistoricallybeenpredominantlyventedto
theatmosphere.Thevolumeofgasproducedduringcompletionislinkedtothepressureofthewellandtheinitialflowrate.
241. Emissionrateswillvaryfromoneareatoanotherbecausegasreservoirsvarybyageandgeologicproperties,andoperatingpractices.Emissionsfromwellcompletionsandliquidunloadingsarealsohighlyvariable.251252
242. Currentunderstandingofthedistributionofemissionsacrosstheglobalwellpopulationis
extremelypoorwithintheliteratureandfurtherresearchisrequiredtodetailandquantifythefactorsaffectingunloadingemissionssuchaswellage,reservoirproperties,equipmentusedandoperationalstrategies.253
243. AccordingtotheSustainableGasInstitute(SGI),thereisincompleteandunrepresentative
dataforanumberofemissionsources.Specifically,moredataarerequiredforliquidsunloading,wellcompletionswithRECs,andtransmissionanddistributionpipelines.254SGIalsonotealackoftransparencyindataandaccountingformethaneemissionsacrossalloftheLNGstages.
244. Fugitiveemissionsareamajorhealthhazardbecausemethaneisapotentgreenhousegas(GHG).Iftheamountoffugitiveemissionsexceedsacertainthreshold,theargumentthatshalegasisa‘cleanenergysource’relativetocoaloroilfallsapart.AccuratemeasuresoffugitiveemissionsproducedbytheO&Gindustryarethereforeimportant.
245. Methodstoquantifyfugitiveemissionsaretypicallydividedintotwogroups:bottomup
methodsandtopdownmethods.
249SGI(2015),MethaneandCO2emissionsfromthenaturalgassupplychain,http://www.sustainablegasinstitute.org/publications/white-paper-1/250CommitteeonClimateChange,2016.ThecompatibilityofUKonshorepetroleumwithmeetingtheUK’scarbonbudgets.251Zavala-Aaraizaetal(2015)ReconcilingdivergentestimatesofoilandgasmethaneemissionsPNAS|December22,2015|vol.112|no.51|15597–15602252Balcombe,Anderson,Speirs,BrandonandHawkes,2015.MethaneandCO2emissionsfromthenaturalgassupplychain.London:SustainableGasInstitute253Balcombe,Anderson,Speirs,BrandonandHawkes,2015.MethaneandCO2emissionsfromthenaturalgassupplychain.London:SustainableGasInstitute254Balcombe,Anderson,Speirs,BrandonandHawkes,2015.MethaneandCO2emissionsfromthenaturalgassupplychain.London:SustainableGasInstitute
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246. Bottomupmethodsusedirectmeasurementsofleakageratesfromempiricalstudiestocalculateemissionfactors(EFs)fordifferentsourcesofleakage.TheseEFsarethenappliedtothenumberofsuchsourcesandtheiractivitylevels,fromwhichatotalemissionsestimateiscalculated.
247. ThisisthebasisfortheEPA’sInventoryofGreenhouseGasEmissionsandSinkswhich
providesanoverallnationalemissionestimatebysectorfortheUS.TheEPAalsohasaGreenhouseGasReportingProgram(GHGRP)whichinvolvesmandatoryreportingbyO&GoperatorsofGHGemissionsfromallsourcesthatemitmorethan25000tofCO2eperyear.
248. However,attemptstoestablishaccurateemissionsinventoriesintheUShavebeenhindered
bydatagaps,arelianceofself-reporteddatacollection,andtheuseofoutmodedemissionsfactors.255Maceyetal(2014)alsonotehowthedirectmeasurementofairpollutantsfromonshoregasoperationshasbeenlimitedbyinadequateaccesstowellpadsandotherinfrastructure;theunavailabilityofapowersourceformonitoringequipment;andafailuretocaptureunscheduledepisodesofflaring,fugitivereleasesandmovementsoftrucktraffic.256
249. Topdownmethodsmeasuremethaneconcentrationsdirectlyintheatmosphere,andthen
apportionapercentageofthetotalemissionstodifferentsourcesofmethaneinthegivensourcearea.
250. Bottom-upestimationsoffugitiveemissionsusedintheofficialUSinventoriesaregenerally
acceptedasbeingtoolow.Independenttop-downinvestigationssuggestthattheGHGRPmayunderestimatetherealemissionratebyuptoafactorof3.8.257Brandtetal’sreviewof20yearsoftechnicalliteratureonnaturalgasemissionsintheUSandCanadafoundthatofficialinventoriesconsistentlyunderestimateactualCH4emissions.258
251. Actionswhichwouldhelpconvergetop-downandbottom-upestimatesincludeensuring
thattop-downstudiesreportonfossilmethaneonly;havingaccuratefacilitycountsinbottom-upanalysis;andcharacterisingthecontributionofsuper-emittersaccurately.259
252. Ingeneral,methaneemissionsintheUShavebeenunder-estimated.Onerecent
quantitativeestimateofthespatialdistributionofanthropogenicmethanesourcesshowedthatEPAinventoriesandtheEmissionsDatabaseforGlobalAtmosphericResearch(EDGAR)have
255FieldRA,SoltisJ,MurphyS:Airqualityconcernsofunconventionaloilandnaturalgasproduction.EnvironSciProcessImpacts2014,16:954–969.256Maceyetal,2014.Airconcentrationsofvolatilecompoundsnearoilandgasproduction:acommunity-basedexploratorystudy.EnvironmentalHealth2014,13:82doi:10.1186/1476-069X-13-82257Lavoie2015Aircraft-BasedMeasurementsofPointSourceMethaneEmissionsintheBarnettShaleBasin,Lavoieetal.,EnvironmentalScienceandTechnology,vol.49no.13pp.7904-7913,http://pubs.acs.org/doi/pdf/10.1021/acs.est.5b00410258Brandtetal,2014.MethaneLeaksfromNorthAmericanNaturalGasSystems,Science,vol.343pp.733-735,http://psb.vermont.gov/sites/psb/files/CLF-SC-2%20Science-Methane%20Leaks.pdf259Heath,Warner,SteinbergandBrandt,2015.EstimatingUSMethaneEmissionsfromtheNaturalGasSupplyChain,http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy16osti/62820.pdf
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underestimatedmethaneemissionsbyafactorof∼1.5and∼1.7,respectively.260Thediscrepancyinestimateswasparticularlypronouncedinsouth-centralUSwherefossilfuelextractionandrefiningareprominent.261Accordingtothispaper,regionalmethaneemissionsduetofossilfuelextractionandprocessingcouldbe4.9±2.6timeslargerthaninEDGAR.
253. ThereasonsforthisincludetheuseofoutdatedEFs;262inadequatesamplingandthefailure
toaccountfor‘super-emitters’(emissionsfromindividualwellsandgasprocessingfacilitiesdonotexhibitanormaldistribution,buttendtodisplayaskeweddistributionwitha‘fat-tail’ofsuper-emitters263);assumptionsthatoperatorsareapplyingbestpractice;inaccuratecountsofsites,facilities,andequipment;non-reportingbyO&Goperators;264andthefalseassumptionthatEFsareconsistentacrosstheindustryanddifferentregions.265266
254. AccordingtoBrandtetal,becausemeasurementsforgeneratingEFsareexpensive,sample
sizesareusuallysmallandaffectedbysamplingbiasduetorelianceuponself-selectedcooperatingfacilities.Inaddition,becauseemissionsdistributionshave‘fattails’,smallsamplesizesarelikelytounderrepresenthigh-consequenceemissionssources.267
255. Themethodologicalchallengesinaccountingforfugitiveemissionsaredemonstratedby
largeyear-to-yearrevisionsofthereportedemissionsbytheEPA.268Forexample,theestimatednationalaverageproduction-sectorleakratefor2008increasedfromapproximately0.16%(oftotalgasproduced)inits2010report,to1.42%inthe2011and2012reports,beforebeing
260Miller2013AnthropogenicemissionsofmethaneintheUnitedStates,PNAS,vol.110no.50pp.20018-20022,10thDecember2013http://www.pnas.org/content/110/50/20018.full.pdf?with-ds=yes261Emissionsduetoruminantsandmanurearewerealsouptotwicethemagnitudeofexistinginventories.262Karionetal,2013MethaneemissionsestimatefromairbornemeasurementsoverawesternUnitedStatesnaturalgasfield,GeophysicalResearchLetters,vol.40no.16,http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50811/pdf263Fat-tailsitesdonotnecessarilyhavepersistentlyhighemissionsbutmayrepresentshort-termemissioneventscausedbymaintenanceactivitiesormalfunctions.264Lavoie2015Aircraft-BasedMeasurementsofPointSourceMethaneEmissionsintheBarnettShaleBasin,Lavoieetal.,EnvironmentalScienceandTechnology,vol.49no.13pp.7904-7913,http://pubs.acs.org/doi/pdf/10.1021/acs.est.5b00410265Karionetal,2013MethaneemissionsestimatefromairbornemeasurementsoverawesternUnitedStatesnaturalgasfield,GeophysicalResearchLetters,vol.40no.16,http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50811/pdf266Zavala-Aaraizaetal(2015)ReconcilingdivergentestimatesofoilandgasmethaneemissionsPNAS|December22,2015|vol.112|no.51|15597–15602267Brandtetal,2014.MethaneLeaksfromNorthAmericanNaturalGasSystems,Science,vol.343pp.733-735,http://psb.vermont.gov/sites/psb/files/CLF-SC-2%20Science-Methane%20Leaks.pdf268Karionetal,2013MethaneemissionsestimatefromairbornemeasurementsoverawesternUnitedStatesnaturalgasfield,GeophysicalResearchLetters,vol.40no.16,http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50811/pdf
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reviseddownto0.88%inthe2013report.269ThesechangesledtheEPA’sOfficeofInspectorGeneralcallingforimprovedemissionsdataforthenaturalgasproductionsector.270
256. AccordingtoHowarthandIngraffea,1.9%ofthetotalproductionofgasfroman
unconventionalshale-gaswellisemittedasmethaneduringwellcompletion[madeupoflossesfromflowbackfluids(1.6%)anddrillout(0.33%)].271Additionalfugitiveemissions(0.3–3.5%)continueatthewellafterwellcompletion(fromleakageatconnections,pressurereliefvalves,pneumaticpumps,dehydratorsandgasprocessingequipment),whileemissionsduringtransport,storageanddistributionareestimatedtobeanadditional1.4%to3.6%.
257. Altogether,HowarthandIngraffeaestimatethat3.6%to7.9%ofmethanefromshalegas
productionescapestotheatmosphere.Theyestimatethatemissionsareatleast30%andpossiblytwiceasgreatasthosefromconventionalgas.
258. Caultonetal’sassessmentoftheliteratureonemissionratesfromunconventionalgas
productionsince2010isthatitrangesfrom0.6to7.7%atthewellsiteandduringprocessingoverthelifetimeproductionofawell;andfrom0.07to10%duringtransmission,storageanddistributiontoconsumers.Thehighestpublishedestimatesforcombinedmethaneemissions(2.3–11.7%)arebasedonactualtop-downmeasurementsinspecificregions.272273
259. Petronetal’s(2014)topdownmeasurementofmethaneemissionsintheDenver-Julesburg
BasininnortheasternColoradoover2daysinMay2012wasusedtoestimatetheemissionsfromoilandgasoperationsandothersourcesofmethane(livestockfarming,landfills,wastewatertreatmentandnaturalmicro-seepage).274TheestimatedcontributionfromO&Goperationswasonaverage19.3±6.9t/h,or75%ofthetotalmeasure.Themeasurementwasalmost3timeshigherthananhourlyemissionestimatebasedontheEPA’sGHGRP.Theleveloffugitiveemissionsasafractionoftotalgasproductionwas4.1±1.5%;similartofindingsreportedfromastudyin2008ofthesameregion.275
269ThesechangeswerecausedbydifferentEFsforcalculatingemissionsfromliquidunloading,unconventionalcompletionswithhydraulicfracturing,andtherefracturingofnaturalgaswells.Themaindriverforthe2013reductionwasareportpreparedbytheoilandgasindustry,whichcontendedthattheestimatedemissionsfromliquidunloadingandrefracturingofwellsintightsandsorshaleformationsshouldbelower.270U.S.EnvironmentalProtectionAgencyOfficeofInspectorGeneral(2013),EPANeedstoImproveAirEmissionsDatafortheOilandNaturalGasProductionSector,EPAOIG,Washington,D.C.271HowarthandIngraffea,2011.MethaneAndTheGreenhouse-GasFootprintOfNaturalGasFromShaleFormations–ALetter,ClimaticChange,vol.106no.4pp.679-690.http://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs10584-011-0061-5.pdf272PétronG,etal.(2012)HydrocarbonemissionscharacterizationintheColoradoFrontRange:Apilotstudy.JGeophysRes,10.1029/2011JD016360.273KarionA,etal.(2013)MethaneemissionsestimatefromairbornemeasurementsoverawesternUnitedStatesnaturalgasfield.GeophysResLett,10.1002/grl.50811.274Pétronetal2014AnewlookatmethaneandnonmethanehydrocarbonemissionsfromoilandnaturalgasoperationsintheColoradoDenver-JulesburgBasin,JournalofGeophysicalResearch:Atmospheres,vol.119no.11pp.6836-6852,http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013JD021272/pdf275Pétronetal2012HydrocarbonemissionscharacterizationintheColoradoFrontRange:Apilotstudy,JournalOfGeophysicalResearch,vol.117no.D4,http://www.fraw.org.uk/library/extreme/petron_2012.pdf
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260. Peischletal’s(2013)studyofmethane,carbondioxide,carbonmonoxideandC2–C5alkanelevelsacrosstheLosAngelesbasinin2010,foundthatmethaneemissionsweregreaterthanthatwhichwouldbeexpectedfrombottom-upstateinventories.Morethanhalftheemissionscamefromfugitivelossesfrompipelinesandurbandistributionsystemsandgeologicseeps.276
261. Karionetal’s(2013)studyofatmosphericmeasurementsofCH4fromanaturalgasandoil
productionfieldinUtahin2012foundanemissionratethatcorrespondedto6.2%-11.7%ofaveragehourlynaturalgasproduction.277Thehighratesareexplainedbythefactthattheregionproducesmoreoilthangas(becausegasisnottheprimaryproduct,moremethaneisflaredorventedduetotheabsenceofgasinfrastructure).
262. Peischletal’s(2015)top-downmeasurementofmethaneoverseveralregions(representing
overhalfofUSshalegasproduction),foundemissionratesvaryingfromoneregiontothenext,andbeinggenerallylowerthanthosereportedinearlierstudies.278Methaneemissionsasapercentageoftotalgasextractedwas1.0–2.1%intheHaynesvilleregion,1.0–2.8%intheFayettevilleregion,and0.18–0.41%innortheastPennsylvania.Therelativelylowrateswerethoughttobedueinparttothecompositionofthefossilfuelextractedandtheuseofmoreefficienttechnology.Itshouldbenotedthatthesefiguresdonotincludeanestimateofemissionsduringthetransmissionandend-usestagesofthegassystem.TheauthorsnotethatrepeatedmeasurementswouldbenecessarytodeterminetheextenttowhichtheironedaymeasuresofCH4arerepresentativeofemissionratesoverthefulllifecycle,andwhytwenty-folddifferencesinlossratesacrossdifferentoilandgas-producingregionshavebeenreported.
263. Karionetal’s(2015)estimatesofregionalmethaneemissionsfromO&Goperations
(includingproduction,processinganddistribution)intheBarnettShale(Texas),usingairborneatmosphericmeasurements,foundmeasuresthatagreedwiththeEPAestimatefornationwideCH4emissionsfromthenaturalgassector,buthigherthanthosereportedbytheEDGARinventoryortheEPA’sGHGRP.279Theemissionsrateamountedto1.3−1.9%oftotalCH4production,whichislowerthanratesrangingfrom4to17%foundinotherstudies.280281282
276Peischletal2013.QuantifyingsourcesofmethaneusinglightalkanesintheLosAngelesbasin,California,JournalofGeophysicalResearch:Atmospheres,vol.118no.10pp.4974-4990,27thhttp://www.fraw.org.uk/library/extreme/peischl_2013.pdf277KarionA,etal.(2013)MethaneemissionsestimatefromairbornemeasurementsoverawesternUnitedStatesnaturalgasfield.GeophysResLett,10.1002/grl.50811.278Peischletal,2015.QuantifyingatmosphericmethaneemissionsfromtheHaynesville,Fayetteville,andnortheasternMarcellusshalegasproductionregions,JournalofGeophysicalResearch:Atmospheres,vol.120pp.2119-2139,http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014JD022697/pdf7279Karionetal,2015.Aircraft-BasedEstimateofTotalMethaneEmissionsfromtheBarnettShaleRegion,EnvironmentalScienceandTechnology,vol.49no.13pp.8124-8131.http://pubs.acs.org/doi/pdf/10.1021/acs.est.5b00217280Karionetal2013.MethaneemissionsestimatefromairbornemeasurementsoverawesternUnitedStatesnaturalgasfield.Geophys.Res.Lett.40(16),4393−4397281Peischl,J;etal.QuantifyingsourcesofmethaneusinglightalkanesintheLosAngelesbasin,California.J.Geophys.Res.:Atmos.2013,118(10),4974−4990.282Wennberg,P.Oetal.OnthesourcesofmethanetotheLosAngelesatmosphere.Environ.Sci.Technol.2012,46(17),9282−9289.
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264. Lanetal(2015)quantifiedfugitiveCH4emissionsfrommorethan152facilities,including
wellpads,compressorstations,gasprocessingplantsandlandfillsfromONGoperationsintheBarnettShale.283Theyestimatedatotalwellpademissionrateof1.5×105kg/hinthearea,withratesbetweenindividualwellpadsrangingfrom0.009to58kg/handbeinglinearlycorrelatedwithgasproduction.Methaneemissionsfromcompressorstationsandgasprocessingplantsweresubstantiallyhigher,withsome“superemitters”havingemissionratesof3447kg/h,morethen36,000-foldhigherthanreportedbytheEPA’sGHGRP.Theemissionrateasaproportionoftotalgasproductionvariedfrom0.01%to47.8%withamedianandaveragevalueof2.1%and7.9%,respectively.
265. MeasurementsofmethaneemissionsbyLavoieetal(2015)ateightdifferenthigh-emitting
pointsourcesinOctober2013intheBarnettShale,Texas(fourgasprocessingplants,onecompressorstationandthreelandfills)werecomparedtootheraircraft-andsurface-basedmeasurementsofthesamefacilities,andtoestimatesreportedtotheEPA’sGHGRP.284Fortheeightsources,CH4emissionmeasurementswereafactorof3.2−5.8greaterthantheGHGRP-basedestimates.Summedemissionstotalled7022±2000kghr−1,roughly9%oftheentirebasin-wideCH4emissionsestimatedfromregionalmassbalanceflightsduringthecampaign.
266. Allenetal’s(2013)studywhichconsistedofdirectmeasurementsofmethaneemissionsat
190onshorenaturalgassitesintheUS(150productionsites,27wellcompletionflowbacks,9wellunloadings,and4workovers)alsofoundemissionsmeasurementsthatvariedbyordersofmagnitude.285However,theiroverallestimateofemissionsforcompletionflowbacks,pneumatics,andequipmentleaksamountedto0.42%ofgrossgasproductionwhichisconsiderablylowerthanotherfindingsfromotherstudiesandevenlowerthantheEPA’sinventory-basedrates.However,twopaperspublishedin2015haveindicatedthatthedatainAllenetal’spapermayhavebeenflawed.286
267. Goetzetal’s(2015)studyofthecompositionofairsamplesusingamobilelaboratoryfrom
sitesinNEandSWPennsylvania,includingover50compressorstationsand4,200wellsfoundmethaneemissionstobebetween4and23timesgreaterthantheupperrangeofwellpad
283Lanetal,2015CharacterizingFugitiveMethaneEmissionsintheBarnettShaleAreaUsingaMobileLaboratory,EnvironmentalScienceandTechnology,vol.49no.13pp.8139-8146284Lavoieetal2015Aircraft-BasedMeasurementsofPointSourceMethaneEmissionsintheBarnettShaleBasin,EnvironmentalScienceandTechnology,vol.49no.13pp.7904-7913,http://pubs.acs.org/doi/pdf/10.1021/acs.est.5b00410285AllenDT,etal.(2013)MeasurementsofmethaneemissionsatnaturalgasproductionsitesintheUnitedStates.ProcNatlAcadSciUSA110(44):17768–17773.286 See: a) Howard T, Ferrarab TW, Townsend-Small A. Sensor transition failure in the high flow sampler:implications for methane emission inventories of natural gas infrastructure. J Air Waste Manag Assoc.2015;65:856–862;andb)39.HowardT.UniversityofTexasstudyunderestimatesnationalmethaneemissionsinventory at natural gas production sites due to instrument sensor failure. Energy Sci Eng. 2015;DOI:10.1002/ese3.81.
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equipmentleakestimatesinAllenetal(2013).287Theauthorsarguedthatthelargedisparitybetweenthetwostudies“suggeststhatthereareotherfactorssuchasoperatingpractices,productionvolumedecline,locationofleaks,scheduledversusunscheduledmonitoring,aswellasthenumberandrepresentativenessofsitessampledthatmaybeimportantconsiderationswhencompilingabottom-upinventory".
268. Zavala-Aaraizaetal’s(2015)studyconstructedacustomisedbottom-upCH4inventoryinthe
Barnettregionthatwasbasedonextensivelocalmeasurementsoffacility-wideemissionsfromproductionsites,compressorstations,andprocessingplants;updatedfacilitycounts;andanexplicitaccountofthecontributionofhigh-emitters(theestimatedemissiondistributionsimplythat,atanyonetime,2%offacilitiesareresponsibleforhalftheemissions).288High-emittersweredividedroughlyequallyamongproductionsites,compressors,andprocessingplants.TheyestimatedthatCH4emissionsfortheBarnettregiontobe59MgCH4/h(48–73MgCH4/h;95%CI),withthethreemainsourcesbeingproductionsites(53%),compressorstations(31%),andprocessingplants(13%).Thisequatestoalossof1.5%(1.2–1.9%)oftotalBarnettproduction.Theirmeasureofemissionswas1.9timestheestimatedemissionsbasedontheEPA’sGreenhouseGasInventoryand3.5timesthatoftheGHGRP.
269. Theleakagerateislowenoughforgas-firedelectricityinthisregiontobelessclimate
forcingthancoal-firedelectricity.However,long-distancetransmissionandstorageofnaturalgasresultsinasubstantialincrementofCH4emissionsthatwouldneedtobeconsideredwhenanalysingtheclimateimplicationsofnaturalgasconsumptioninregionsthatarenotproximatetoaproductionarea.289
270. Zavala-Aaraizaetalnotethatmoreworkisneededtounderstandthecharacteristicsthat
causeanindividualsitetobeahigh-emitter.Theyalsonotethatthechallengefacingoperatorsisthathigh-emittersarealwayspresent(atthebasinscale)butoccuratonlyasubsetofsitesatanyonetime,andmovefromplacetoplaceovertime.
271. Lyonetal(2016)usedaspatiallyresolvedemissioninventory,tomeasuremethane
emissionsfromtheO&GindustryandothersourcesintheBarnettShaleregioninOctober2013.290Theywereestimatedtobe72,300(63,400−82,400)kg/hrofwhich46,200(40,000−54,100)kg/hrwereO&Gemissions(64%ofthetotal).About19%ofemissionscamefromfat-tailsitesrepresentinglessthan2%ofallsites.ThemeasuredestimatewashigherthantheEPAGreenhouseGasInventory,theEPA’sGHGRP,andtheEmissionsDatabaseforGlobal
287GoetzJ,FloerchingerC,FortnerEetal,2015..AtmosphericemissioncharacterizationofMarcellusShaleNaturalGasDevelopmentSites.288Zavala-Aaraizaetal(2015)ReconcilingdivergentestimatesofoilandgasmethaneemissionsPNAS|December22,2015|vol.112|no.51|15597–15602289Zavala-Aaraizaetal(2015)ReconcilingdivergentestimatesofoilandgasmethaneemissionsPNAS|December22,2015|vol.112|no.51|15597–15602290Lyonetal,2015.ConstructingaSpatiallyResolvedMethaneEmissionInventoryfortheBarnettShaleRegion,EnvironmentalScienceandTechnology,vol.49no.13pp.8147-8157,http://pubs.acs.org/doi/pdf/10.1021/es506359c
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AtmosphericResearch(EDGAR)byfactorsof1.5,2.7,and4.3,respectively.Theirestimatedemissionratewasequivalentto1.2%(1.0−1.4%)ofgasproduction.
272. Astudyofglobalandregionaltrendsinatmosphericmethanebetween2003and2012by
Schneisingetal(2014)foundthatmethaneconcentrationshadrisendramaticallyinthenorthernhemisphere.291ByevaluatingtrendsindrillingandhydraulicfracturingactivityintwolargeshaleregionsintheUS(theEagleFordinTexasandtheBakkeninNorthDakota),theauthorsestimatedmethaneemissionratesof9.5%(±7%)intermsofenergycontentduringthe2009–2011period.
273. Fugitiveemissionsfromabandonedwellshavealsobecomeagrowingconcern.Inastudy
whichinvolveddirectmeasurementsofmethanefluxesfromabandonedO&GwellsinPennsylvania,muchhighermethaneflowrateswerefoundwhencomparedtocontrollocations.292Threeoutof19measuredwellswerehighemittersandhadmethaneflowratesthreeordersofmagnitudelargerthanthemedianflowrate.GiventhattherearemillionsofabandonedwellsacrosstheUS,thismaymeanthattherearetensorhundredsofthousandsofhighemittingwells.Theauthorsrecommendthatmeasurementsofmethaneemissionsfromabandonedwellsbeincludedingreenhousegasinventories.
274. Astudyoffugitiveemissionsofmethanefromformeronshore(conventional)O&G
explorationandproductionintheUKselected66%(n=102)ofallwellswhichappearedtohavebeendecommissioned(abandoned)from4differentbasinsandanalysedthesoilgasaboveeachwellrelativetoanearbycontrolsiteofsimilarlanduseandsoiltype.293Ofthesewells,30%hadCH4levelsatthesoilsurfacethatwassignificantlygreaterthantheirrespectivecontrol.Conversely,39%ofwellsiteshadsignificantlylowersurfacesoilgasCH4concentrationsthantheirrespectivecontrol.TheauthorsinterprettheelevatedsoilgasCH4concentrationstobetheresultofwellintegrityfailure.Thedatasuggestameanfugitiveemissionof364±677kgCO2eq/well/year.Inthisstudy,allthestudysiteshadbeendecommissionedinlinewithbestpracticerecommendations.Theauthorsnotethatwellswhichhavenotbeenappropriatelydecommissionedarelikelytoemitgreaterlevelsofmethane.Thepotentialfordiffuseleakageintothesurroundinggroundwaterandoverabroaderareamightmeanthatthereallevelofmethaneleakageisgreater.
291SchneisingO,BurrowsJP,DickersonRR,BuchwitzM,ReutersM,BovensmannH.RemotesensingoffugitiveemissionsfromoilandgasproductioninNorthAmericantightgeologicalformations.EarthsFuture,2014;2:548–558292Kangetal,2014DirectmeasurementsofmethaneemissionsfromabandonedoilandgaswellsinPennsylvania.,PNAS,vol.111no.51pp.18173-18177,http://www.pnas.org/content/111/51/18173.full.pdf?with-ds=yes293Boothroydetal2016Fugitiveemissionsofmethanefromabandoned,decommissionedoilandgaswells,ScienceofTheTotalEnvironment,vol.547pp.461-469,http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969715312535/pdfft?md5=28d125f6f39d20a2e7783d9dd6443062&pid=1-s2.0-S0048969715312535-main.pdf
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275. TheobservedincreaseinatmosphericmethaneconcentrationsovertheUSparallelsglobaltrends.Theglobalburdenofatmosphericmethaneroseby1–2%inthe1970sand1980s,stabilizedinthe1990s,buthasbeenrisingagainsincethemid-2000s.294295
276. TheincreaseofUSmethaneemissionsbymorethan30%overthepastdecadeisamajor
contributiontothistrend.AccordingtoTurneretal(2016),USanthropogenicmethaneemissionscouldaccountforupto30–60%oftheglobalincrease.296CaultonetalalsoagreethatincreaseinanthropogenicCH4emissionintheUS,causedprimarilybynaturalgassystemsandentericfermentation,playasignificantpartintheseglobaltrends.297
277. The20%increaseinO&Gproduction(includinganinefoldincreaseinshalegasproduction)
from2002to2014isalikelycausefortheriseinmethaneemissionsseenintheUS,althoughabetterunderstandingofUSanthropogenicmethaneemissions,particularlythosefromthelivestockandO&Gsectors,isneededbeforeanydefinitiveconclusionscanbemade.
278. Atmosphericmethanemostlyarisesfromthreesources:biogenicmethaneproducedby
microbesfromorganicmatterunderanaerobicconditions(e.g.inwetlands,ruminants,andwastedeposits),thermogenicmethaneformedingeologicalprocessesandreleasedbyoilandgasproduction,andpyrogenicmethaneproducedbyincompletecombustionprocessessuchasinbiomassburning.Theriseinmethaneconcentrationsatthegloballevelisbelievedtobedrivenbyacombinationofincreasedbiogenicmethaneemissionsfromthetropicalwetlandsandgrowingoilandnaturalgasproduction.Thecontributionmadebyoilandgasoperationstotheoverallincreaseinmethaneconcentrationsisunclear.Hausmannetalhavesuggestedthataround40%oftherecentriseinatmosphericmethanebetween2007and2014canbeattributedtooilandgasactivities.298
279. Itisarguedthattechnologycanavoidorreducetheamountoffugitiveemissions.Methane
emissionsduringtheflowbackperiodcanpotentiallybereducedbyupto90%throughReducedEmissionCompletions(REC)technologies,althoughsuchtechnologiesarenotalwayseconomicallyviableorpracticable.Forexample,RECtechnologiesrequirethatpipelinestothewellareinplacepriortocompletionwhichmaynotalwaysbepossible.Theuseofbetterstoragetanksandcompressorsandimprovedmonitoringforleaksmayalsoreduceemissions.RECstechnologiesarenowcompulsoryintheUS,andwouldexpecttobesointheUK.
294Turneretal,2016.AlargeincreaseinU.S.methaneemissionsoverthepastdecadeinferredfromsatellitedataandsurfaceobservations,Turneretal.,GeophysicalResearchLetters(preprint),2016–http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL067987/pdf295FrankenbergC,etal.(2011)Globalcolumn-averagedmethanemixingratiosfrom2003to2009asderivedfromSCIAMACHY:Trendsandvariability.JGeophysRes116(D4):D04302.296Turneretal,2016.AlargeincreaseinU.S.methaneemissionsoverthepastdecadeinferredfromsatellitedataandsurfaceobservations,Turneretal.,GeophysicalResearchLetters(preprint),http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL067987/pdf297Caulton2013.Towardabetterunderstandingandquantificationofmethaneemissionsfromshalegasdevelopmentwww.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1316546111298HausmannPetal,2016.Contributionofoilandnaturalgasproductiontorenewedmethaneincrease.Atmos.Chem.Phys.,16:3227–3244.
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280. TheUKCCCalsonotesthattechniquesandtechnologiestomitigatefugitivemethaneexist
andinclude:reducedemissionscompletions(REC);andtheuseofaplungerliftsystemduringliquidunloadings,improvedpneumaticdevices,drysealcompressors,electrifiedcompressorsandvapourrecoveryunits;andtheadoptionofaneffectiveleakagedetectionandrepair(LDAR)programme.TheCCCclaimsthatalthoughacompleteavoidanceofsuper-emittersmaybeunachievable,operationalandmaintenanceprocedurescouldlargelyeliminatethesehighemitters.
M.RegulationandRiskManagement
Introduction
281. Regulationisonewaythatsocietyexpressesitspreferencesfordistributingthepotentialrisksandbenefitsassociatedwithanyindustrialoreconomicactivity(includingbetweencurrentandfuturegenerations).Itexpressesthewayinwhichweapplytheprecautionaryprinciple299andhowwevaluenatureandotherdimensionsoftheworldthathavenomarketvalue.
282. Giventherequirementofcommercialcompaniestomaximiseprofitasaprimarygoal(andthereforeseektoexternalisesocialandenvironmentalcostsasmuchaspossible),300regulationisimportanttoprotectthepublicinterestandensurethatcommercialoperatorsbehaveethicallyandsafely.Manywell-documentedcasestudiesfromavarietyofsectorsdescribehowtheimperativetomaximiseprofitresultsincompaniesignoringwarningsignalsaboutpotentialharmsanddangers,andconcealingriskinformationpriortotheemergenceofindustrialcatastrophes.301302Oilandgascorporationsarebelievedtobeespeciallyhostiletoregulationandreluctanttoacknowledgerisk.303
283. Companiesthatfacedifficultiesinsecuringaprofitwillbeplacedunderpressureto
compromiseonsafetyinordertominimisecosts.Thisiswhytheeconomicviabilityofshalegasproductionisanimportantfactortoconsiderfromahealthprotectionperspective.
284. Regulatorymechanismsincludelegalconstraintsthatlimitorprohibitcertainactivities;laws
thatprescribemandatorysafetystandards;andliabilityandtaxsystemsthataredesignedtoaligntheeconomicinterestsofcompanieswiththeinterestsofsociety.Forregulationtowork,
299ThePrecautionaryPrincipleisrecognisedasguidanceto'erronthesideofcaution'whenanactivityisbelievedtothreatenhumanhealthortheenvironment,evenifthereissomescientificuncertainty.SeeTicknerandRaffensperger(1998),ThePrecautionaryPrinciple:AFrameworkforSustainableBusinessDecision-Making,EnvironmentalPolicy,(5/4)75–82.300LeMenestrel,M.,2002,'EconomicRationalityandEthicalBehavior.EthicalBusinessbetweenVenalityandSacrifice',BusinessEthics:AEuropeanReview,(11/2)157–166. 301ChernovandSornette,2016.Man-madeCatastrophesandRiskInformationConcealment.Switzerland:SpringerInternaitonalPublichsing302EEA,2001,Latelessonsfromearlywarnings:theprecautionaryprinciple1896–2000,EnvironmentalissuereportNo22,EuropeanEnvironmentAgency.303KonschnikKEandBolingMK.Shalegasdevelopment:asmartregulationframework.EnvironSciTechnol2014;48:8404–8416.
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theremustalsobemechanismsformonitoringtheactivitiesofcommercialcompaniesandassessingtheirimpactonpeopleandtheenvironment,andtheenforcementofappropriatesanctionsintheeventofnegligenceornon-compliancewithregulation.
RegulationandSGP
285. Inlinewithmanyotherindustrialprocessesandhumanactivities,SGPcannotbeconsideredtorisk-free.SGPwillleadtosomepollution,anditwillhavesomenegativesocialandeconomicimpacts.Thekeyquestioniswhethertherisksandharmsaredeemedacceptable–bothinabsoluteterms,butalsoinrelationtothepotentialbenefitsofSGP.
286. SGPisaparticularlydifficultindustrytoregulateforseveralreasons.Muchactivitytakesplaceundergroundandoutofsight.Therearemanysourcesandtypesofhazardandpollutantsmaybegeographicallydispersed.Theleakageofmethaneintotheatmosphereisespeciallyhardtodetect.Inaddition,shalegasoperationsmayinvolvemultiplecontractors(comprisingdrillingcompanies,hydraulicfracturingservicecompanies,chemicalsuppliers,wastehaulersandcementcontractors)whichmakescompliancedeterminationdifficult.
287. ProponentsofSGPclaimthatitissafeifregulatedproperly.AccordingtoPHE,thepotentialrisksfromexposuretotheemissionsassociatedwithshalegasextractionwillbelow“iftheoperationsareproperlyrunandregulated”.304
288. ThereisalsoaviewthatregulationintheUKisbetterthanintheUSA.Theindustry-funded
TaskForceonShaleGasissatisfiedthat“currentregulationsintheUKareadequateandonthewholearemorerigorousandrobustthanthoseinoperationintheUS”.Similarly,PHEstatedthatconcernsandproblemsassociatedwithSGPintheUS“aretypicallyaresultofoperationalfailureandapoorregulatoryenvironment”andthatshalegasdevelopersandoperatorsintheUKcanbereliedupon“tosatisfytherelevantregulatorsthattheirproposalsandoperationswillminimisethepotentialforpollutionandriskstopublichealth”.305
289. However,athoroughandindependentassessmentoftheadequacyoftheregulatorysystem(includingthecapacityofregulatoryagencies)forshalegasintheUKhasnotbeenconducted.
304KibbleA,CabiancaT,DaraktchievaZ,GoodingTetal,2014.ReviewofthePotentialPublicHealthImpactsofExposurestoChemicalandRadioactivePollutantsasaResultofShaleGasExtraction.CentreforRadiation,ChemicalandEnvironmentalHazards,PublicHealthEngland.Availablefrom:https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/332837/PHE-CRCE-009_3-7-14.pdf305KibbleA,CabiancaT,DaraktchievaZ,GoodingTetal,2014.ReviewofthePotentialPublicHealthImpactsofExposurestoChemicalandRadioactivePollutantsasaResultofShaleGasExtraction.CentreforRadiation,ChemicalandEnvironmentalHazards,PublicHealthEngland.Availablefrom:https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/332837/PHE-CRCE-009_3-7-14.pdf
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AnoverviewoftheregulatorysystemforSGPinEngland306
288. TheregulatorysystemforSGPinEnglandisspreadacrossanumberofnationalandlocalgovernmentagencies.ResponsibilityforoverallcoordinationofpolicyonunconventionaloilandgaslieswiththeDepartmentofEnergyandClimateChange(DECC),withinwhichtheOfficeofUnconventionalGasandOil(OUGO)existstoencourageunconventionaloilandgasexplorationandproduction.In2015,thegovernmentestablishedanewexecutiveagencycalledtheOilandGasAuthoritytotakeresponsibilityforregulatingoffshoreandonshoreoilandgasoperationsintheUK,includingoilandgaslicensing.Itspurposeis“toworkwithgovernmentandindustrytomakesurethattheUKgetsthemaximumeconomicbenefitfromitsoilandgasreserves”.
289. TheDepartmentforEnvironment,FoodandRuralAffairs(DEFRA)hasleadresponsibilityfortheenvironmentalaspectsofshalegaspolicy,whiletheDepartmentforCommunitiesandLocalGovernment(DCLG)isresponsibleforthelocalplanningsystem.OverallresponsibilityforclimatechangeandseismicitylieswithDECC.TheHealthandSafetyExecutive(HSE)whichreportstotheDepartmentforWorkandPensionsisresponsibleforensuringsafeworkingpracticesatandaroundthewellpad,includingsafeandproperwellconstruction.
290. OncePetroleumExplorationDevelopmentLicenceshavebeengrantedbyDECCto
operators,givingthemrightstodrillforshalegas,307operatorsmustobtainplanningpermissionfromthelocalMineralsPlanningAuthority(MPA),usuallylocatedintheplanningdepartmentsofcountycouncils.
291. TheoperatormustalsoconsulttheEnvironmentAgency(EA),anexecutivenon-departmentalpublicbodysponsoredbyDEFRA,whichisresponsibleforregulationofairemissionsandtheprotectionofwaterresources(includinggroundwateraquifersandsurfacewater),andobtaintherequiredpermitsrelatedto,amongotherthings,waterabstraction;wastewaterdischarge;managementanddisposalofminingwastes,includingradioactivematerial;andflaringandventing.
292. Thefocusofthelocalplanningsystemisonwhetherthedevelopmentisanacceptableuseofthelandandtheimpactsofthoseuses,ratherthanonanycontrolprocesses,healthandsafetyissuesoremissionsthataresubjecttoapprovalunderotherregimeswhichlocalauthoritiesshouldassumeareoperatingeffectively.
293. TheUKhasa‘goal-settingapproachtoregulation’inwhichoperatorsarerequiredtodemonstratethatrisksrelatingtooilandgasoperationsarereducedto‘aslowasreasonablypracticable’,suchthattheymovebeyondminimumstandardsinacontinuouseffortforimprovement.
306TherearesomedifferencesintheregulatorysystemsandapproachesacrossthefourhomenationsoftheUK.ThefocusofthissectionisontheEnglishsystem.307Thelicencesalsocoverconventionalexplorationandproductionofhydrocarbons.
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294. Intermsofstandardsandbestpracticeguidelines,theUnitedKingdomOnshoreOperatorsGroup(UKOOG),therepresentativebodyforUKonshoreoilandgascompanies,publishedupdatedguidelinesinJanuary2015,butonlyfortheexplorationandappraisalphaseofshalegasexploitation.308
295. A‘regulatoryroadmap’publishedbyDECCinDecember2015providesanoverviewof
regulationandbestpracticerelatedtothelicensing,permittingandpermissionsprocessforonshoreoilandgasexplorationandappraisal,butnotfordevelopmentandproduction,norfordecommissioning,restorationandaftercare.309
296. DrafttechnicalguidancepublishedbytheEAtoclarifywhichenvironmentalregulations
applytoonshoreoilandgasexplorationandwhatoperatorsneedtodotocomplywiththoseregulationswasputouttopublicconsultationin2013.310TheresultsoftheconsultationwereonlymadepubliclyavailableinJuly2016.311
297. Currentregulationsstatethatanenvironmentalriskassessment(ERA)isrequiredforallshalegasoperationsasamatterofgoodpractice,andthatthisshouldinvolvetheparticipationofstakeholdersincludinglocalcommunitiesandaddressissuessuchasnoise,ecology,archaeology,siteaccessandvisualimpact,aswellasthedisposalofwastes,wellabandonmentandrisksofinducedseismicity.Anenvironmentalimpactassessment(EIA)isonlymandatory“iftheprojectislikelytohavesignificantenvironmentaleffects”.
298. Operatorsarethenrequiredtopresentanenvironmentalstatement(ES)tothelocal
planningauthority.Thiswoulddescribethedesignandsizeofthedevelopment,incorporatefindingsfromtheERAandEIAandoutlinethemeasuresenvisagedforavoiding,reducingand,ifpossible,remedyinganysignificantadverseeffects.Itshouldalsoincludethedatarequiredtoidentifyandassessthemaineffectsthatthedevelopmentislikelytohaveontheenvironmentandoutlinetheplansformitigatingsucheffectsandthesuggestedenvironmentalmanagementandmonitoringschemetobefollowed.
299. Ifplanningpermissionisgranted,theHSEmustbenotifiedatleast21dayspriortoany
drillingcommencingsothatitcanassessthedesignandconstructionofthewell(s)andthe
308UKOOG,2015.GuidelinesforUKWellOperatorsonOnshoreShaleGasWells.http://www.ukoog.org.uk/images/ukoog/pdfs/ShaleGasWellGuidelinesIssue3.pdf309DECC,2015.OnshoreOilandgasExplorationintheUK:RegulationandBestPractice.Availableathttps://www.gov.uk/government/publications/regulatory-roadmap-onshore-oil-and-gas-exploration-in-the-uk-regulation-and-best-practice310EnvironmentAgency,2013.DraftTechnicalGuidanceforOnshoreOilandGasExploratoryOperations.https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/297024/LIT_7983_3b53c2.pdf311EnvironmentAgency,2016.OnshoreOilandGasExploratoryOperations:TechnicalGuidance.Asummaryofconsultationresponses.https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/538472/Onshore_oil_and_gas_technical_guidance_summary_of_consultation_responses.pdf
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proposedmeasuresforcontrollingmajorhazards.Itisalsoexpectedtocontinuemonitoringoperationsbyreviewingweeklyreportssubmittedbythewelloperator.
300. Healthandsafetylegislationrequiresawelltobedesignedandconstructedsuchthat,sofarasreasonablypracticable,thereisnounplannedescapeoffluidsfromit.Theoperatormustarrangeanexaminationofthewelldesignbyanindependent,competentwellexaminer.
301. TheInfrastructureActrequiresaperiodofgroundwatermonitoringpriortothe
commencementoffracking.Thenon-bindingUKOOGCodeofPracticealsocommitscompaniestosomebaselinemonitoring,whiletheShaleGasTaskForcerecommendsthat“baselinemonitoring–forground,airandwater–shouldbeginwhenasitehasbeenidentified,beforetheenvironmentalpermittingandplanninghavebeenobtained”Theyalsorecommendthat“monitoringofgas,casingpressureandsoilshouldtakeplaceforthedurationofoperationsonawell”.
302. Operatorsarerequiredtodescribethecontrolandmitigationmeasuresforfracture
containmentandforanypotentialinducedseismicity.ThisincludestheproposeddesignofthefracturegeometryshouldbeincludedintheHFP,including(fracturing)targetzones,sealingmechanism(s)andaquifers(freshandsaline),soasnottoallowfracturingfluidstomigratefromthedesignedfracturezone(s).Duringdrilling,atrafficlightsystemformonitoringinducedseismicityisrequiredtomitigateinducedseismicity.
303. Inadditiontostatutoryreporting,operatorsareexpectedtokeeprecordsof:
• Geologicalinformation,includingtheproposeddepth(s)ofthetopandthebottomoftheformationintowhichwellfracturingfluidsaretobeinjected
• Informationconcerningwatersupply,usage,recyclingandreuse• Adetaileddescriptionofthewellfracturingdesignandoperations• Adetailedpost-fracturejobreport
301. Thecompositionandpotentialtoxicityoffrackingfluidhasreceivedmuchpublicattention.DECCguidancestatesthat“operatorswilldisclosethechemicaladditivesoffracturingfluidsonawell-by-wellbasis”.
302. Whenitcomestowastewatermanagement,theEAstatesthatoperatorsshouldaimto:a)reducetheamountofwastegenerated;b)encouragethereuseofwastefluidswhereverpossible;andc)reducetheneedforfreshwaterandwatertreatmentfacilities.Forcontaminatedflowbackfluids,EAguidancestatesthatre-useisthepreferredoption,butifcannotbere-used,itmustbesenttoanappropriatepermittedwastefacilityfortreatmentanddisposal.
303. AlthoughtheEAhaspreviouslystatedthatdisposalofflowbackfluidbyre-injectingitintotheshalestratawouldbeprohibited,itnowstatesthatitmaybepermissible“where,for
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example,itisinjectedbackintoformationsfromwhichhydrocarbonshavebeenextractedandwillhavenoimpactonthestatusofwaterbodiesorposeanyrisktogroundwater.”312
304. GuidancepublishedbytheEAmakestheuseof‘reducedemissioncompletions’technologyarecommendedpractice.TheTaskForceonShaleGasnotesthattheUShasrecentlymandatedtheuseofgreencompletions,andrecommendsthatthesamepolicybeadoptedintheUKfor‘productionwells’(asgreencompletionsarenotfeasiblefor‘exploratorywells’thatwillrequiresomeflaringofgas).
305. Oncompletionofdrillingoperations,awellmaybesuspendedtoallowforfuturetestingor
abandoned.Ifabandoned,thesitemustberestoredandaperiodofaftercareconductedtoensurethelandreturnstoastatethatisthesameorbetterthanitwaspriortooperationscommencing.
306. Beforewellscanbeabandoned,theymustbesecurelysealedtopreventleakagefromwithinthewellbore.Cementispumpedintotheproductioncasingandasteelcapisfittedtothetopofthewelltosealitoff.ThereisarequirementthattheHSEisnotifiedwhenwellsareabandonedandthattheprocesscomplieswithOilandGasUKguidelines.
307. Operatorsarealsorequiredtohaveaclosureandrehabilitationplan(torestorethesitetoa
statesimilartothatbeforedrilling)whichmustbeagreedbytheEAbeforedecommissioningbegins.OperatorswillnotbeallowedtosurrendertheirpermituntiltheEAissatisfiedthatthereisnoongoingrisktotheenvironment.TheMPAisresponsibleforensuringthewellsareabandonedandthesiteisrestored.Inthecaseofanoperatordefaulting,planningguidancestatesthatthelandownerwillthenberesponsibleforrestoration.313
ConcernsabouttheregulatorysystemThegeneralapproachtoregulation
305. BecauseSGPisanewandgenerallyuntestedactivityintheUK,itisreasonableforregulationtoevolvewithexperience.However,itisnotablethatinseekingtoencourageSGPintheUK,thegovernmenthassoughttoremoveorreduceregulatorybarriersfacingO&Ginvestorsandoperators.
308. Forexample,newtextwrittenintheUKInfrastructureAct,2015(underSection4A)has
changedthedefinitionoffrackingsothatthecontrolscontainedintheActandassociatedsecondarylegislationwillonlyapplytowellsthatmeetthiscriteria.Frackingisnowdefinedas
312http://energyandcarbon.com/uk-failing-lessons-fracking-waste-water/#_ftn24313DepartmentforCommunitiesandLocalGovernment,PlanningPracticeGuidanceforOnshoreOilandGas(July2013)pg17.para.76andinthe2014guidanceavailableathttp://planningguidance.communities.gov.uk/blog/guidance/minerals/restoration-and-aftercare-of-minerals-sites/
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thehydraulicfracturingofshalewhichinvolves,orisexpectedtoinvolve,theinjectionof‘morethan1,000m3offluidateachstage,orexpectedstage,ormorethan10,000m3intotal.314
309. AccordingtoGillfillamandHaszeldine,thereisnoexplanationastohoworwhythese
numberswerechosen,orwhyvolumesoffluidarechosenatallasthebasisfordefiningfracking.Bythisdefinition,almosthalfthegaswellsthathavebeenhydraulicallyfracturedintheUSoverthisdecadewouldnotbeclassifiedashavingbeenfracked.315
310. Thegovernmenthasalsodecreedthatapplicationsforplanningpermissionmustnowbe
determinedwithin16weeksandthatifaplanningauthorityfailstomeetthisdeadlineorrejectsanapplicationongroundsthatareinconsistentwiththelocalplanornationalguidance,applicantsmayappealandbeawardedcosts.TheEAalsohastonowsubmitreportsaboutenvironmentalrisktocouncilswithinsixteen-weeks.
311. Atthesametime,thepowersoftheSecretaryofStatetocallinapplicationsanddecideonallappealsrelatingtoonshoreoilandgas,potentiallyover-ridinganylocalconcerns,havebeenincreased.The2015InfrastructureActhasalsorelaxedtherequirementforshalecompaniestoseekpermissionofhomeownerstodrillundertheirland.
312. TheimplicationsofBrexitarealsorelevant.TheUKwillneedtoconsiderwhetheritwantstorepeal(totallyorpartially)orchangeanylawsorregulationthatstemfromtheEU.Thisincludesanumberofdetailedenvironmentalstandardsthatsetoutbestavailabletechniquesforprotectingtheenvironmentwhenconductingavarietyofactivitiesoroperations.
313. TheextenttowhichtheUKcanamendorrepealenvironmentallawwilldependonthetypeoftraderelationshipthatisestablishedwiththeEU.IftheUKadoptsaNorwaystylemodel,EUregulatoryregimesforwater,air,chemicals,waste,noise,climatechange,energyefficiency,andtechnicalregulationsandstandards(includingREACH)wouldcontinuetoapply.ButifitleftwithoutatradedealandoperateslikeChinaandtheUS,theUKwouldnotbedirectlyboundbyEUrulesonenvironmentalregulation.
314. However,itisofnotethattheUKhasbeensubjecttonumerouscriticismsforitsnon-compliancewithEUenvironmentalstandards.RecentlytherehavebeenlegalchallengesovertheUKsfailuretomeetairqualitystandards.Furthermore,EUenvironmentalstandardshavebeensubjectedtomuchcriticismfromUKbusinesses.
Riskassessments
314Hydraulicfracturingatawellpadforhorizontalshalegaswellsisnota“oneshot”process,butisperformedinstages,asthelengthoftheboreholesusuallyexceedsseveralkilometres.Sectionsof20-40metresareblockedoffalongthehorizontalwell(packed)andthenfrackedinstages.315http://energyandcarbon.com/whats-in-a-name-the-risks-of-re-defining-fracking/
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315. Theframeworkforriskandimpactassessmentsisnotcomprehensive.Forexample,itexcludestheneedforcomprehensivesocialandeconomicassessments,includinganassessmentoftheimpactofSGPonothereconomicactivitiessuchastourismandagriculture,aswellastheopportunitycostsincurredbyencouraginganonshoreshalegasindustry.Inaddition,planningapplicationsandriskassessmentsareconductedinapiecemealway,focusingonindividualsitesoneatatime.Thisavoidsanycumulative,holisticandcomprehensiveassessmentoftheimpactofSGP.
Regulatorycapture
316. TheUKsystemsforbothregulatingandencouragingthedevelopmentofashalegasindustryappeartobeheavilyintertwined.MuchoftheregulatoryapparatusappearstobetiedtoprocessesdesignedtofacilitatetheemergenceofashalegasindustryintheUK,raisingquestionsabouttheextenttowhichregulationisindependentoftheindustryandadequatelyfocusedonpublicandenvironmentalprotection.
317. Generallyspeaking,theapproachtoregulationisalsoheavilyreliantonself-monitoringbytheindustry.Forexample,althoughan‘independentandcompetentperson’isresponsibleforexaminingtheintegrityandqualityofwelldesignandconstruction,therobustnessofthissystemisquestionablebybecausethisindependentpersonmaybepaidoremployedbytheoperator,andbecausethereviewandexaminationofwellspecificationsanddesignisconductedasapaperexerciseandbasedoninformationsuppliedbytheoperator.Assuch,thereisnomandatoryandindependentoversightoftheactualconstructionofwells,norprovisionforunannouncedspotchecksofwellintegrityacrossthelifecycleofawell,includingafterabandonment.
318. IndependentinspectionforwellintegritywasrecommendedbytheRoyalSocietyand
AcademyofEngineering,andtheindustry-fundedShaleGasTaskForcenotedthatitisimportantnottorelysolelyonself-monitoringandself-reportingbytheoperator,andthat“regular(andsometimesrandom)visitsandinspectionsbytheregulators”isadvisable.However,mandatoryandindependentinspectionofwellswasrejectedduringthepassageoftheInfrastructureAct.
319. Asfaraslocalgovernment’sresponsibilityfordecidingwhetherornotaparticularproposed
drillingandfrackingapplicationshouldgoahead,reasonableconcernsexistaroundcountycouncilslackingin-housegeologicalexpertiseorthetimeandmoneytoseekindependentadvice.Alltoooftentheyarereliantontheinformationprovidedbytheapplicant.
Drilling
320. Whenitcomestodrilling,thecurrentregulationsmaynotbestringentenoughgiventhefaultednatureoftheUKgeologyandtheexperienceoffrackinginPreeseHall.AlthoughtheproblemsatPreeseHallhavebeenpartlymitigatedbytheintroductionofa'trafficlight'systemofseismicmonitoringduringfracking,itisnotclearifthisonitsownissufficienttoensuresafedrilling.
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321. Moredetailedandstringentoperatingrequirements(e.gmoredetailedgeophysicalsurveys
usingnewtechniquesforimagingfaults,andclosermonitoringofseismicdataduringdrilling)mayneedtobespecified.Itmayalsobeprudenttoprohibitfrackingaltogetherinareaswherefaultspenetratethefullthicknessoftheoverburden.Intermsofprotectinggroundwaterfromcontamination,whilecurrentlawsandregulationsprohibitanydrillingin‘sourceprotectionzones’,itmaybenecessarytospecifyminimumstand-offdistances.
Chemicalcompositionoffrackingfluids
318. Whiletherearereassuringrequirementsforthedisclosureofchemicaladditivestofrackingfluid,itisunclearifoperatorswillpubliclydisclosetheexactcompositionandquantityofrackingfluidandindividualadditives.
Managementofwastewaterandreinjection
319. Thepotentialseismichazardposedbynewproposalstoallowthedisposalofwastewaterbyinjectionintothegroundisaconcern.IntheUS,re-injectionisthemostcommonandeconomicallyviablesolutiontodealwithflowbackwastewatersbut,inadditiontoinducedearthquakes,thepracticehasalsoresultedinenvironmentalcontaminationthroughsurfacespillsandleakywells.316
320. AreviewbyEllsworth(2013)ofinjection-inducedearthquakesassociatedwithSGPconcludesthatearthquakescanbeinducedbybothhydraulicfracturingandthesub-surfacedisposalofwastewater.317WithinthecentralandeasternUnitedStates,theearthquakecounthasincreaseddramaticallyoverthepastfewyears.Severalcasesofearthquakes(associateddirectlywithfracking)werelargeenoughtobefeltbuttoosmalltocausestructuraldamagehavebeenreported.However,mostoftheconcerncentersontheinjectionofwastewater,andnotfrackingitself.Hearguesthatbetterknowledgeofthestressandpressureconditionsatdepth;thehydrogeologicframework,includingthepresenceandgeometryoffaults;andthelocationandmechanismsofnaturalseismicityareneededtodevelopapredictiveunderstandingofthehazardposedbyinducedearthquakes.
321. Thepotentialpermittingofinjectionforflowbackfluidsisalsoworryingbecauseofthelack
ofresearchonthecompositionsofthewastewaterandpotentialchemicalreactionsinthesubsurface.
322. Shouldhighvolumere-injectionactivityofflowbackfluidbecarriedoutintheUK,itwouldneedtobecarefullymonitored.AnarticlewrittenbyacademicsfromEdinburghUniversitystronglyrecommendthataresearch-basedcodeofbestpracticebeestablishedtoreducethe
316http://energyandcarbon.com/uk-failing-lessons-fracking-waste-water/#_ftn24317EllsworthW,2013.Injection-inducedearthquakes,Science341(6142),doi:10.1126/science.1225942.
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riskofenvironmentalcontaminationbeestablishedbeforeanyflowbackfluidre-injectionpermitsaregranted.318
Baselinemonitoring
323. AlthoughtheimportanceofenvironmentalbenchmarkingiswellrecognisedintheUKandsomeemphasishasbeenplacedonbaselinemonitoring,thereisstillalackofclarityandspecificationoverthescope,quality,frequencyandstandardsofmandatorymonitoring.Worriesaboutthelackofmandatoryminimumstandardsforthemonitoringofairpollutants,includingfugitivemethaneemissions,isunderstandablegiventhefactthatthereiscurrentlynodataregardingtheamountofgasventedbyexistingoilandgasoperationsintheUK.319
Abandonedwells
324. Atpresentitisnotclearwhowillmonitorwellsforleakageaftertheyhavebeenabandoned.TheShaleGasTaskForcenotesthattheGovernmentneedsto“clarifywhereresponsibilityforthecontinuedmonitoringanddocumentationofsealed-offsitesshouldlie”.Theyalsostatethat“itisnotclearwhoisresponsibleforanyissuesaroundanabandonedwelliftheoperatorhasgoneoutofbusinessatthetimewhenaleakorcontaminationhasbeenidentified”,andthatevencurrently,“thereislittlemonitoringofabandonedwells”intheUK.
325. Giventhatwellsmayleak(gasandliquid)foruptothirtyyearsaftertheyhavebeenpluggedandabandoned,320thelongtermmonitoringofabandonedwellsisalsoanissue.TheTaskForceonShaleGashasproposedthatwellsbeinspectedtwotothreemonthsaftertheconcreteplugshavebeeninsertedintothewell,andthatfurtherinspectionsfocusonsoilmonitoringandgroundwatermonitoring“atasuitablerecommendedinterval”and“ifthereisanyreasontobelievethatwellintegritymightbecompromised”.
Sanctionsregime
326. Theproposaltorequirecompaniestosecureabondtoinsurethemagainstthecostofanypotentialliabilityhasnotbeenadoptedaspolicy.Thereareinadequatesafeguardstopreventfrackingoperatorsfrompassingtheownershipandliabilityofcommerciallynon-viablewellsontosubsidiarycompaniesthatsubsequentlygointoadministrationshortlyafter.
327. Althoughtheindustryhasstatedthatitwilldevelopaninsurancemechanismtocoverfull
liabilityintheeventofapollutionincident,thisisanon-bindingpromiseandwould,inanycase,offerweakerprotectionthanalegally-mandatedbondagreementthatwouldcoverthecostsof
318HaszeldineS,GilfillanSandO’DonnellM,2016.UKFailingtoLearnUSLessonsonFrackingWastewater.http://www.talkfracking.org/news/uk-failing-to-learn-u-s-lessons-on-fracking-waste-water/319StamfordandAzpagic,2014.LifecycleenvironmentalimpactsofUKshalegas.AppliedEnergy134(2014)506–518320KangM,KannoCM,ReidMC,ZhangXetal,2014.DirectmeasurementsofmethaneemissionsfromabandonedoilandgaswellsinPennsylvania.PNASvol.111no.51:18173–18177,doi:10.1073/pnas.1408315111
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decommissioning,faultywellremediation,andcompensationforpossiblepollutionofwaterresources,depreciationoflandandhouseprices,andearthquakedamage.
Capacityofregulatorybodies328. ItisfrequentlystatedthatregulationoftheoilandgasindustryintheUKisofahigh
standardandbetterthanintheUS.Inreality,theregulatorysystemintheUSvariesconsiderablyfromstatetostate,andinsomeinstances,regulatorystandardsmaybemorestringentthanintheUK.ItisworthnotingthatNewYorkStatehasactuallybannedSGPonthegroundsthatitwouldbeharmfultohealth.
329. Thelastfewyears,however,haveseendeepcutstothebudgets,staffingandexpertiseofarangeofregulatoryagencies.
330. Localgovernmentbudgetsandcapacityhavebeenparticularlyhardhit,includingthose
relatedtopublichealth.AccordingtotheNationalAuditOffice,therehasbeena37%estimatedreal-termsreductioningovernmentfundingtolocalauthorities2010-11to2015-16.321Oncechangestocounciltaxincomearefactoredin,therehasbeenanestimated25%real-termsreductioninlocalauthorities’incomefrom2010-11to2015-16.Therehasalsobeena46%budgetedreal-termsreductioninspendingonplanninganddevelopmentservicesbetween2010-11and2014-15.
331. Netspendingbylocalauthoritiesonpublicservices(excludingspendingonpolice,fireandrescue,education,publichealthandasmallcomponentofsocialcare)inEnglandwascutby20.4%inrealtermsbetween2009-10and2014-15.Serviceareaswiththelargestcutsincludedplanninganddevelopment(cuttolessthanhalfitsoriginallevel),regulationandsafety,housing,andtransport(allofwhichwerecutbyatleast30%).Localauthoritiesareexpectedtofacefurthercutstorevenuesin2015-16.322
332. BudgetcutstotheEAhavealsobeensevere.AccordingtoUNISON,therehasbeena16%cutinthetotalgrantsmadein2009-10comparedto2013-14.323Takingintoaccountaninflationrateof11%;thisisequivalenttoacutofnearly25%inrealterms.Thousandshavejobshavebeenlostinthisperiod.324
333. TheHSEbudgetwascutby13%from£228millionin2009–2010to£199millionin2011–2012.Itsstaffnumberswerereducedby22%from3,702in2010to2,889upto2012.325
321FromNationalAuditOfficereport,Theimpactoffundingreductionsonlocalauthorities,November2014.https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Impact-of-funding-reductions-on-local-authorities.pdf322DavidInnesandGemmaTetlow,2015.CentralCuts,LocalDecision-Making:ChangesinLocalGovernmentSpendingandRevenuesinEngland,2009/10to2014/15323https://www.unison.org.uk/at-work/water-environment-and-transport/key-issues/cuts-at-the-environment-agency/324http://www.endsreport.com/article/41653/environment-agency-cuts-surviving-the-surgeons-knife325WattersonandDinan,2015.HealthImpactAssessments,Regulation,andtheUnconventional
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AccordingtoHSEchiefexecutiveGeoffreyPodgerin2010,‘thenumberofstaffhasfallendrastically,fromover4,200adecadeagotoaround2,200’.TheHSE’sAnnualReport&Accountsfor2014/15furthermorestateshowithasdelivereda40%realtermbudgetreductionfrom2011/12to2014/15.AccordingtoitsBusinessPlanfor2015/16,grantsprovidedbygovernmenttofundcertainactivitiesareplannedtoreducebyover£82min2015/16comparedto2011/12.TheextenttowhichdrillingwillbeproperlyscrutinisedbyspecialistwellsinspectorsfromtheHSE(oranynewbespokeregulator)isthereforeacontentiouspoint.
334. Thefiguresaboverelatetofundingcutsingeneral,anditwouldbenecessarytoassessthe
specificbudgetsandstaffingofthosedepartmentsdealingwithonshoreoilandgasinordertoassesstheadequacyofregulatorycapacityinmorepreciseterms.
N.EconomicandCommercialViability
322. The likely economic and commercial viability of a shale gas industry is an importantconsideration in shaping views about its the potential risks and benefits, and whether theindustryshouldbeactivelyencouraged.
323. Thespeedatwhichashalegasindustrymightdevelopisuncertain,dependingsignificantlyoneconomicfactorsaffectingitsprofitability,thetimerequiredforplanningandapproval,andtheextenttowhichpublicoppositionisaconstraint.Profitabilitywilldependontheunderlyingcosts of production, costs imposed by regulation, the composition of the gas produced, theproductivityof thewells,prevailingwholesalepricesand the taxation regime.Becausea largeproportionofproductioncostsarefixed,theunitcostsofproductionarehighlydependentonthequantityofoutput.
324. ThedevelopmentoftheshalegasindustryintheUStookplaceunderfavourableconditions
including: a) strong government investment in R&D and a favourable tax regime; b) a highnatural gas price; c) favourable geology; d) good knowledge of geology; e) a ‘light touch’regulatory regime; f) analreadywell-developedonshoreoil andgas sector; g) privatemineralownership;andh)apublicaccustomedtothesightofdrillingrigs.Theindustrywasalsoallowedtodevelopinawaywherewellsweredrilledlikeafactoryproductionline.326TheseconditionsarenotallpresentintheUK.327AccordingtotheCCC,thecostsofenvironmental,planningandsafetyregulationarelikelytobehigherthanintheUS.
GasIndustryintheUK:ExploitingResources,Ideology,andExpertise.JournalofEnvironmentalandOccupationalHealthPolicy0(0)1–33.326The‘factoryproductionline’styleofshalegaswellsintheUSenabledalargenumberofwellstobedrilledquicklyatareducedcost.Multilateralshalewellsaddcomplexitytowelldesignandconstructionandisstillatarelativelyearlystageofdevelopment,accordingtotheCCCwhosuggestthatitisreasonabletoassumeshalewellsintheUKwillnotutilisethistechnology,atleastintheearlystagesofadomesticindustrydeveloping.327StevensP,2013.ShaleGasintheUnitedKingdom.London:ChathamHouse.https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/files/chathamhouse/public/Research/Energy,%20Environment%20and%20Development/131213shalegas.pdf
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325. It isalsoworthnotingthatInspiteoffavourablegeologyintheUS,thousandsof‘trialand
error’explorationwellsweredrilledintheUSbeforethe‘sweetspots’ofhighproductivitywereidentifiedandtheindustrytookoff.TheCCCestimatesthatitwouldtakeat leasttwoyearsofexplorationtoascertainthecommercialviabilityofshalegas,andpossiblyaslongas10years.328
326. Theproductivityofawelldependson itsgeological characteristics, lengthof the lateral(s)
drilledandthecompletiondesign.Productivitycanvaryacrossashaleformationbyafactorofup to ten.329Because theUKhasnoexploration flowdata, letaloneproductiondata, it isnotpossibletoevenspeculateonthelikelyproductivityofUKwells.
327. Similarly, the future price of gas is difficult to predict with confidence. The gas price in
DECC’sfossilfuelpricescenariosrangesfrom36to95p/thermfor2025.Forthesereasons,itisdifficulttostatewithanycertaintywhetherSGPwillbeeconomicinthe2020s.
328. IntheUS,SGProsetoaround50%ofoverallgasproductionin2014.Withlittleconnectivity
tointernationalmarketsthisaddedtosupplyforUSconsumption,andputdownwardpressureonprices.TheUK,however, ispartofahighlyconnectedgasnetworkacrossEurope,which isthe world’s largest importingmarket. Even UK shale gas production at the upper end of ourscenariosfor2030wouldbelessthan10%ofthisdemand,andwoulddolittletoreduceenergybills.Theweakerdownwardpressureonwholesalepricesdoes,however,meanthatprofitabilityof production is less likely to be undermined. This is in sharp contrast to the US experience,wherethefallingaspricesactedtolimittheprofitabilityoffurtherproduction.
329. In spite of the inherent uncertainty, various production scenarios for the UK have been
developed. The Institute of Directors (IoD, 2013), funded by Cuadrilla, built bottom-upproductionscenariosbasedonanassumednumberofwells,productivityassumptionsof0.62,0.83and1.0TWhper lateral,andthedrillingoffour lateralsperwell.330Thisprovidedarangeforproductionof250-410TWhperyearby2030.TheNationalGrid’sFutureEnergyScenariosassumed the samenumberofwells as the IoD reportbutproduceda lower rangeof180-360TWhperyearin2030.331AstudybyPöyry(2011)whichaccountedfortheimpactofeconomicfactors (e.g. production costs and wholesale gas prices) on productivity yielded a range for
328IDDRI(2014)UnconventionalWisdom,http://www.iddri.org/Publications/Collections/Analyses/Study0214_TS%20et%20al._shale%20gas.pdf9Gény(2010)CanUnconventionalGasbeaGameChangerinEuropeanGasMarkets?,https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/NG46-CanUnconventionalGasbeaGameChangerinEuropeanGasMarkets-FlorenceGeny-2010.pdf329IDDRI(2014)UnconventionalWisdom,http://www.iddri.org/Publications/Collections/Analyses/Study0214_TS%20et%20al._shale%20gas.pdfBrowningetal(2013),Barnettstudydeterminesfull-fieldreserves,productionforecast,Oil&GasJournal,http://www.beg.utexas.edu/info/docs/OGJ_SFSGAS_pt2.pdf330IOD(2013)GettingShaleGasWorkinghttp://www.iod.com/~/media/Documents/PDFs/Influencing/Infrastructure/IoD_Getting_shale_gas_working_MAIN_REPORT.pdf331NationalGrid(2015)FutureEnergyScenarios,http://fes.nationalgrid.com/
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productionof15-50TWhperyearin2030.332Finally,Brodericketal(2011)producedproductionscenarios inwhich the highest scenario for productionwas around 30 TWhper year in 2030,implyingawellproductivityof1.1TWh.333
330. Thesestudiesprovideawiderangeofprojectionsofproductionextending from15to410TWhperyearin2030.Thisreflectsnotjustthedegreeofuncertaintyabouttheproductivityofashale gas industry in the UK, but alsomethodological differences (e.g. while the Pöyry studyincorporated the impact of economics on the rate of production, the others assumed afavourableeconomiccontext).
331. TheCCCuse0.52TWh/wellasthelevelofproductivitybelowwhichproductionmaybe
uneconomic.
332. UsinginformationfromtheUSEnergyInformationAssociation,Dalzellestimatesthatinitialproductionratesfromshalegaswellsappeartorangebetween1and11millioncubicfeetperday and 125–1370 million cubic feet in total.334 This would equate to a value of $430,000 -$4,800,000at currentwholesalepricesof $3.5per thousand cubic feet. These figuresoverlapestimates produced by the Institute of Directors' study of UK shale gas potential (initialproductionratesofabout2.5millioncubicfeetperdayandrecoverableresourcesofaround310millioncubicfeetperwell).
332Pöyry(2013)MacroeconomicEffectsofEuropeanShaleGasProduction,http://www.poyry.co.uk/sites/poyry.co.uk/files/public_report_ogp__v5_0.pdf333Brodericketal.(2011),Shalegas:anupdatedassessmentofenvironmentalandclimatechangeimpacts,http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/sites/default/files/coop_shale_gas_report_update_v3.10.pdf334DalzellC,2016.Theeconomicsofshalegasextraction.Glasgow:CommonWeal.
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333. Dalzell also estimates that, based on studies that have calculated the lifetime costs of an
individualwelltorangebetween$3-8million,tobreakevenatthelowerboundof$3millionperwell,gaspriceswouldneedtobearound$10perthousandcubicfeet.Atthehigherboundof$8millionperwell,itwouldneedtobe$26perthousandcubicfeetwhichistwicetheall-timegaspricehighofabout$13perthousandcubicfeetseenin2008.Thus,heconcludesthatshalegasis unlikely to be economically viable in the current low hydrocarbon price environment andwouldrequiresignificantsubsidyorsignificantefficiencyprogressionbeforeitcouldbeso.
334. Assumingamethaneleakagerateof4%,theIOD'sestimateofgasproductionfromatypical
UKwellandastudywhichcalculatedtheeconomiccostofCO2emissionsat$220pershorttonofCO2,Dalzellestimatedthattheexternalisedeconomiccostsofshalegasproductionwouldbealittleunder$1.5million.
N.Climatechangeandhealth
GlobalWarmingandclimatechange 335. Theproductionandconsumptionofenergyhasbeenanimportantingredientforthe
remarkableimprovementsinhumanhealthwitnessedoverthepasttwocenturies.However,becauseofglobalwarming,fossilfuelnowpresentsamajorthreattohumanhealth.335
336. Theaveragegloballandandseasurfacetemperaturehasrisenbyabout1°Csincepre-industrialtimes.336Lagsintheresponseoftheclimatesystemtohistoricalemissionsmeanthattheworldisalreadycommittedtofurtherwarmingoverthecomingdecades.
337. TheprimarycauseforthisincreaseintemperatureisthereleaseofGHGemissions.About
70%ofallGHGemissionscanbelinkedtotheburningoffossilfuelfortheproductionofenergyservices,goodsorenergyextraction.337Agriculture,deforestationandcementusearealsoimportantcausesofglobalwarming.
338. ThemetriccommonlyusedtoquantifythetotalamountofGHGsintheatmosphereis‘giga
tonnesofCO2equivalent’(GtCO2e).ThisconvertsquantitiesofmethaneandotherGHGsintoameasurethatisequivalenttothedominantGHGwhichiscarbondioxide.
335Globalwarmingcausedbyhumanactivityisanincontrovertiblefact,backedbyempiricalevidenceandsoundscientifictheories.ItisdrivenbyGHGstrappingheatwithintheearth-atmospheresystem.336http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/news/2015/global-average-temperature-2015337Victor,D,Zhou,D,Ahmed,Eetal.IntroductoryChapter.in:OEdenhofer,RPichs-Madruga,YSokona,(Eds.)Climatechange2014:mitigationofclimatechangecontributionofWorkingGroupIIItotheFifthAssessmentReportoftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange.CambridgeUniversityPress,Cambridge,UKandNewYork,NY;2014
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339. About1600GtCO2ehasbeenemittedintotheatmospheresince1870.In2010,annualglobalGHGemissionswereestimatedat49GtCO2e.338
340. GlobalGHGemissionsfromheatandelectricityproductionandtransporthavetripledanddoubledrespectivelysince1970,whereasthecontributionfromagricultureandland-usechangehasslightlyreducedfrom1990levels.339
341. Theriseintemperatureincreasestheamountofenergyintheearth-atmospheresystemaswellastheamountofwaterintheatmosphere,bothofwhichleadtochangesintheweather.340
342. CO2(andsomeotherpollutants)alsocausesoceanacidificationwhichdamagesmarineorganismsandthreatensfreshwatersuppliesacrosstheworld.Theeffectoficemeltingandwaterexpansion(causedbytemperaturerise)andsubsequentsealevelriseisanotherimportantdimensionofglobalwarming.
Impactsonglobalhealth
343. Theimpactsofglobalwarmingonhealthcanbedirect(eg,heatwaves;extremeweathereventssuchasastorm,forestfire,flood,ordrought;andsealevelrise),orindirect,mediatedthroughtheeffectsofclimatechangeon,amongstotherthings,foodproductionsystems,economies,forcedmigrationandincreasinglevelsofconflictandviolence.
344. Therearealreadyobservedimpactsofclimatechangeonhealth.Thereisawell-established
relationshipbetweenextremehightemperaturesandhumanmorbidityandmortality341andstrongevidencethatheat-relatedmortalityisrisingacrossarangeoflocalities.342
345. Heatwavesandincreasesintheincidenceofextremeheatareprojectedunderallfuturescenariosofclimatechange.343Heatposessignificantriskstooccupationalhealthandlabour
338Summaryforpolicymakers.in:OEdenhofer,RPichs-Madruga,YSokona,(Eds.)Climatechange2014:mitigationofclimatechangecontributionofWorkingGroupIIItotheFifthAssessmentReportoftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange.CambridgeUniversityPress,Cambridge,UKandNewYork,NY;2014339Bruckner,T,Bashmakov,I,Mulugetta,Yetal.EnergySystems.in:OEdenhofer,RPichs-Madruga,YSokona,(Eds.)Climatechange2014:mitigationofclimatechangecontributionofWorkingGroupIIItotheFifthAssessmentReportoftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange.CambridgeUniversityPress,Cambridge,UKandNewYork,NY;2014340McCoyDandHoskinsB,2014.Thescienceofanthropogenicclimatechange:whateverydoctorshouldknow.BMJ2014;349doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.g5178341Aström,C,Orru,H,Rocklöv,J,Strandberg,G,Ebi,KL,andForsberg,B.Heat-relatedrespiratoryhospitaladmissionsinEuropeinachangingclimate:ahealthimpactassessment.BMJOpen.2013;3:e001842342Smith,KR,Woodward,A,Campbell-Lendrum,Detal.Humanhealth—impactsadaptationandco-benefits.Climatechange2014:impacts,adaptation,andvulnerabilityWorkingGroupIIcontributiontotheIPCC5thAssessmentReport.CambridgeUniversityPress,Cambridge,UKandNewYork,NY,USA;2014343Patz,JA,Campbell-Lendrum,D,Holloway,T,andFoley,JA.Impactofregionalclimatechangeonhumanhealth.Nature.2005;438:310–317
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productivityinareaswherepeopleworkoutdoorsforlonghoursinhotregions.344Lossofagriculturalproductivitythroughimpairedlabourwillamplifydirectclimatechangebyimpactingnegativelyonfoodproduction.345
346. OnestudyestimatesthattheeffectsofheatcouldcostChinaandIndiabyasmuchas
US$450billionin2030.346Althoughtheremaybemodestreductionsincold-relateddeathsinsomepartsoftheworld;attheglobalscale,thesebenefitswillbeoutweighedbyheat-relatedmortality.347
347. Heatwavesalsocarryrisksforthewiderenvironment.Forexample,thesummer2010
heatwaveinRussia348wasaccompaniedbymorethan25,000firesoveranareaof1·1millionhectares349andraisedconcentrationsofcarbonmonoxide,nitrogenoxides,aerosols,andparticulates(PM10)acrossEuropeanRussia.
348. Changingweatherpatternswillaffecttheincidenceofcertainvector-bornediseases.For
example,risingtemperaturesandchangesinprecipitationpatternwillalterthedistributionofdiseasevectorssuchasmosquitoescarryingdengueormalaria.Denguefeverforexamplehas390millionrecordedinfectionseachyear,andthenumberisrising.Changingweatherpatternswillalsoincreasewaterbornediseasessuchascholerainthecomingdecades.350
349. Airborneparticulatematter(PM)producedfromthecombustionofcoalandoilalsoimpingesnegativelyuponhealthbycausingrespiratoryandcardiovasculardisease.Householdandambientairpollutionisestimatedtohavebeenresponsiblefor7millionadditionaldeathsgloballyin2012.351IntheUK,around40,000deathsareattributabletoexposuretooutdoorairpollution.352TheOECDestimatesthatthevalueofliveslostandillhealthduetoambientair
344Kjellstrom,T,Holmer,I,andLemke,B.Workplaceheatstress,healthandproductivity—anincreasingchallengeforlowandmiddle-incomecountriesduringclimatechange.GlobalHealthAction.2009;2(10.3402/gha.v2i0.2047.)345Porter,JR,Xie,L,Challinor,AJetal.Foodsecurityandfoodproductionsystems.in:CBField,VRBarros,DJDokken,(Eds.)Climatechange2014:impacts,adaptation,andvulnerability.PartA:globalandsectoralaspectscontributionofWorkingGroupIItotheFifthAssessmentReportoftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange.CambridgeUniversityPress,Cambridge,UKandNewYork,NY,USA;2014:485–533346DARAandtheClimateVulnerabilityForum.Climatevulnerabilitymonitor2012:aguidetothecoldcalculusofahotplanets.FundacionDARAInternacional,Barcelona;2012347Ebi,KandMills,D.Wintermortalityinawarmingclimate:areassessment.WileyInterdiscipRevClimChange.2013;4:203–212348Russo,S,Dosio,A,Graversen,RGetal.Magnitudeofextremeheatwavesinpresentclimateandtheirprojectioninawarmingworld.JGeophysResDAtmospheres.2014;199:500–512349Ryazantzev,S.Demographicandsocio-economicconsequencesofheatwaveandforestfiresof2010inEuropeanRussia.EcolLife.2011;5:80–85350Lipp,EK,Huq,A,andColwell,RR.Effectsofglobalclimateoninfectiousdisease:thecholeramodel.ClinMicrobiolRev.2002;15:757–770351WHO.Burdenondiseasefromairpollutionin2012.http://www.who.int/phe/health_topics/outdoorair/databases/FINAL_HAP_AAP_BoD_24March2014.pdf;2014.352RoyalCollegeofPhysicians.Everybreathwetake:thelifelongimpactofairpollution.Reportofaworkingparty.London:RCP,2016.
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pollutioninOECDcountries,plusIndiaandChina,ismorethan$3·5trillionannually(about5%grossworldproduct),withIndiaandChinaaccountingfor54%ofthistotal.353
350. Byalteringtemperatureandprecipitationfrequency,climatechangecanfurtherelevate
levelsofatmosphericparticulatematterandgroundlevelozoneincertainregions.354355356Onestudyestimatesthatozone-relatedacutemortalityintheUSAcouldriseby4·5%from1990to2050throughclimatechangealone.357
351. Mostclimate-relatedhealthimpactsaremediatedthroughcomplexecologicalandsocialprocessesasshowninthediagrambelow.
353OrganisationofEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment,2014.Thecostofairpollution:healthimpactsofroadtransport.Paris:OECD.354Giorgi,FandMeleux,F.Modellingtheregionaleffectsofclimatechangeonairquality.CRGeosci.2007;339:721–733355Tagaris,E,Manomaiphiboon,K,Liao,K-Jetal.ImpactsofglobalclimatechangeandemissionsonregionalozoneandfineparticulatematterconcentrationsovertheUnitedStates.JGeophysRes,D,Atmospheres.2007;112:D14312356Jiang,H,Liao,H,Pye,HOTetal.Projectedeffectof2000–2050changesinclimateandemissionsonaerosollevelsinChinaandassociatedtransboundarytransport.AtmosChemPhys.2013;13:7937–7960357Knowlton,K,Rosenthal,JE,Hogrefe,Cetal.Assessingozone-relatedhealthimpactsunderachangingclimate.EnvironHealthPerspect.2004;112:1557–1563
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352. Theimpactofclimatechangeonpushingupfoodpricesandaffectingfoodavailabilityand
affordabilitywillbesubstantial,especiallyforregionsandpopulationsthatarealreadyfoodinsecure.358Policiesrelatedtopolicesonfoodstocks,reactionstofoodpricesbyproducercountries,anddemandforlandtohedgeagainstclimateshiftsmayfurtherincreasevolatilitywithintheglobalfoodsystemandcompoundthethreatofreducedfoodproductivityformanypopulations.359
353. Addedtothechallengeofworseningfoodsecurity,isthecriticalfactorofwateravailability.Groundwaterresourcesarealreadyinacriticalstateinmanyregions360361andincreasedexposuretodrought-likemeteorologicalconditionsoverthecomingdecadesisaconsiderablethreat.Oneanalysisshowsthatclimatechange,whencombinedwithpopulationchanges,couldleadto1·4billionadditionalpersondroughtexposureeventsperyearbytheendofthecentury.362
354. Thepotentialimpactofincreasedfrequencyoffloods,stormsurgesandhurricanesis
exemplifiedbythe6000plusfatalitiesthatresultedfromtyphoonHaiyaninthePhilippinesin2013.Floodsalsohavelong-termandshort-termeffectsonwellbeingthroughdiseaseoutbreaks,mentalhealthburdens,anddislocation.363364TheinvoluntarydisplacementofpopulationsasaresultofextremeeventshasmajorhealthandpolicyconsequencesasevidencedrecentlyintheUK.
355. TheIPCCconcludesthatclimatechangewilldirectlyaffectpoverty,resourceuncertaintyand
volatility,andtheabilityofgovernmentstofulfiltheirobligationstoprotectsettlementsandpeoplefromweatherextremes.365366
358Grace,K,Davenport,F,Funk,C,andLerner,AM.ChildmalnutritionandclimateinSub-SaharanAfrica:AnanalysisofrecenttrendsinKenya.ApplGeogr.2012;35:405–413359Porter,JR,Xie,L,Challinor,AJetal.Foodsecurityandfoodproductionsystems.in:CBField,VRBarros,DJDokken,(Eds.)Climatechange2014:impacts,adaptation,andvulnerability.PartA:globalandsectoralaspectscontributionofWorkingGroupIItotheFifthAssessmentReportoftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange.CambridgeUniversityPress,Cambridge,UKandNewYork,NY,USA;2014:485–533360TaylorRG,ScanlonB,DollPetal.Groundwaterandclimatechange.NatureClimChange.2013;3:322–329361Schewe,J,Heinke,J,Gerten,Detal.Multimodelassessmentofwaterscarcityunderclimatechange.ProcNatlAcadSciUSA.2014;111:3245–3250362WattsN,AdgerWN,AgnolucciPetal,2015.Healthandclimatechange:policyresponsestoprotectpublichealth.TheLancet,Vol.386,No.10006,p1861–1914363Ahern,M,Kovats,RS,Wilkinson,P,Few,R,andMatthies,F.Globalhealthimpactsoffloods:epidemiologicevidence.EpidemiolRev.2005;27:36–46364Paranjothy,S,Gallacher,J,Amlôt,Retal.Psychosocialimpactofthesummer2007floodsinEngland.BMCPublicHealth.2011;11:145365Adger,WN,Pulhin,JM,Barnett,Jetal.Humansecurity.in:CBField,VRBarros,DJDokken,(Eds.)Climatechange2014:impacts,adaptation,andvulnerability.PartA:globalandsectoralaspectscontributionofWorkingGroupIItotheFifthAssessmentReportoftheIntergovernmentalPanelofClimateChange.CambridgeUniversityPress,Cambridge,UKandNewYork,NY,USA;2014:755–791366Olsson,L,Opondo,M,Tschakert,Petal.Livelihoodsandpoverty.in:CBField,VRBarros,DRDokken,(Eds.)Climatechange2014:impacts,adaptation,andvulnerability.PartA:globalandsectoralaspectscontributionofWorkingGroupIItotheFifthAssessmentReportoftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange.CambridgeUniversityPress,Cambridge,UKandNewYork,NY;2014:793–832
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356. Thecontinuedmovementofmigrantpopulationsintocities,thepotentialforclimatehazardsinhigh-densitycoastalmega-cities,andimpairedairqualitycreatesignificantpublichealthchallenges,notleastformigrantsthemselves.367368Theeffectsoffoodandresourceinsecurity,migration,displacement,uncertaintyandpovertyallcombinetomakeclimatechangeathreattopeaceandhumansecurity.369
357. Scientistsarealsohighlyconfidentthatclimatechangeisbleachingcoralonreefs
worldwide;affectingriverflows;forcingplantandanimalspeciestowardsthepolesandtohigherelevationsaroundtheworld;andnegativelyimpactingthoselivingintheArctic.Therehasbeenanegativeeffectonthegrowthinproductivityofsomekeycrops,includingforwheatandmaize.
358. Althoughthemagnitudeandnatureoffuturehealthimpactsarehardtopredictwith
precision,unlessactionistakentostopthenetincreaseinGHGemissions,allplausiblefuturesresultingfromanticipatedemissionstrajectorieswillexposetheglobalpopulationtoserioushealthconsequences.
359. Furthermore,thereisarealriskofunforeseeninteractionsandtheamplificationofknownclimaterisks.Ofgreatconcernistheriskofcrossingthresholdsandtippingpointswhichwouldproduceaccelerationsinwarmingandlarger-than-expectedchancesofcatastrophicoutcomes.370371
360. AccordingtotheLancet-UCLCommissiononClimateChangeandHealth,climatechange
couldbe“sufficienttotriggeradiscontinuityinthelong-termprogressionofhumanity”372andthatonthebasisofcurrentemissiontrajectories,“temperaturerisesinthenext85yearsmaybeincompatiblewithanorganisedglobalcommunity”.373
361. Whilstinitiallycertainregionsandcommunitieswillsufferdisproportionately,the
interconnectedandglobalnatureofclimatesystems,ecosystemsandhumansocietywillmeanthatallpartsoftheworldwillbeaffected.374Regionsthatmightbelessaffectedbythedirect
367McMichael,C,Barnett,J,andMcMichael,AJ.Anillwind?Climatechange,migration,andhealth.EnvironHealthPerspect.2012;120:646–654368Black,R,Arnell,NW,Adger,WN,Thomas,D,andGeddes,A.Migration,immobilityanddisplacementoutcomesfollowingextremeevents.EnvironSciPol.2013;27:S32–S43369Gleditsch,NP.Whithertheweather?Climatechangeandconflict.JPeaceRes.2012;49:3–9370Rockström,J,Steffen,W,Noone,Ketal.Planetaryboundaries:exploringthesafeoperatingspaceforhumanity.EcolSoc.2009;14:32371Lenton,TM,Held,H,Kriegler,Eetal.TippingelementsintheEarth'sclimatesystem.ProcNatlAcadSciUSA.2008;105:1786–1793372WattsN,AdgerWN,AgnolucciPetal,2015.Healthandclimatechange:policyresponsestoprotectpublichealth.TheLancet,Vol.386,No.10006,p1861–1914373Anderson,KandBows,A.Beyond‘dangerous’climatechange:emissionscenariosforanewworld.PhilosTransAMathPhys.EngSci.1934;2011:20–44374SmithKR,WoodwardA,Campell-LendrumDetal.Humanhealth—impactsadaptationandco-benefits.Climatechange2014:impacts,adaptation,andvulnerabilityWorkingGroupIIcontributiontotheIPCC5thAssessmentReport.CambridgeUniversityPress,Cambridge,UKandNewYork,NY,USA;2014
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effectsofclimatechangewillbenegativelyaffectedbytheeconomicandsocialdisruptioninthoseregionsthataremoredirectlyaffected.375
362. Althoughthereissomeuncertaintyinunderstandingtheearth’sfutureclimatesystemand
howfurtherglobalwarmingwillimpactonweatherpatterns,biodiversity,foodproductionandwaterstress,therisksoutlinedaboveindicatetheneedtotakeclimatechangeasaseriousandpotentiallyexistentialthreattoorganisedandpeacefulcivilisation.
O.GlobalGHGemissionsandcarbonbudgets
363. WhileweknowthatGHGemissionsareunequivocallylinkedtoanincreaseinsurfacetemperature,itisdifficulttoforecastwithanycertaintythefuturepatternofGHGemissions,energyuseorglobaltemperaturerise.However,climatescientistshaveconstructedvariousriskmodelsthatrelateGHGemissiontargetstofuturetemperaturerise.These‘integratedassessmentmodels’arehighlycomplexandincorporatemultipleassumptionsaboutcosts,markets,humanbehaviour,populationgrowthandthephysicsofclimatechange.
364. Akeyoutputoftheiranalyseshasbeentheconstructionof‘globalcarbonbudgets’thatareassociatedwithvariousprobabilitiesforlimitingtheriseinglobaltemperaturestobelowadefinedlimit.Thetablebelowshowstheestimatedcarbonbudgetfortheperiod2011to2100thatwouldbeconsistentwithvariousprobabilitiesoflimitingglobalwarmingtolessthan1.5°Cand2°C.
CumulativecarbondioxideemissionsconsistentwithwarmingtargetsatdifferentlevelsofprobabilityNetanthropogenicwarming <1.5oC <2oCProbability 66% 50% 33% 66% 50% 33%CumulativeCO2emissionsfrom2011-2100(GtCO2e) 400 550 850 1000 1300 1500CumulativeCO2emissionsfrom1870(GtCO2e) 2250 2250 2550 2900 3000 3300(Source:IPCCFifthAssessmentReport,2014)
365. Tohaveabetterthan66%chanceoflimitingglobalwarmingtobelow2°C,cumulativeGHGemissionsfrom2011onwardswouldneedtobelimitedtoaround1,000(630–1180)GtCO2e.376Tohaveabetterthan50%chanceoflimitingglobalwarmingtobelow1.5°C,cumulativeGHG
375AdgerWN,PulhinJM,BarnettJetal.Humansecurity.in:CBField,VRBarros,DJDokken,(Eds.)Climatechange2014:impacts,adaptation,andvulnerability.PartA:globalandsectoralaspectscontributionofWorkingGroupIItotheFifthAssessmentReportoftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange.CambridgeUniversityPress,Cambridge,UKandNewYork,NY,USA;2014:755–791376ClarkeL,JiangK,AkimotoKetal.Assessingtransformationpathways.InEdenhofer,Pichs-Madruga,Sokona(Eds.)Climatechange2014:MitigationofclimatechangecontributionofWorkingGroupIIItotheFifthAssessmentReportoftheIPCC.CambridgeUniversityPress;2014
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emissionsfrom2011onwardswouldneedtobelimitedtoaround500GtCO2e.377Aglobalcarbonbudgetofabout850GtCO2efortheperiod2011-2100wouldequatewithan“unlikely”(<33%)chanceofstayingbelow1.5°C.
366. Estimatesaboutfutureemissionstrajectories,includingcarboncyclefeedbacks,andtheirimpactontherateandscaleofglobaltemperaturerisesareuncertain,beingbasedonmultipleassumptionsandlimitsinknowledge.However,manymodelsusedmaybeoptimisticbecausetheytendtoassumerelativelyearlypeaksinglobalemissionsandthat‘negativeemissiontechnologies’willbepracticallyandeconomicallyviableinremovingCO2fromtheatmosphere.378379
367. The850to1000GtCO2ebudgetrangeiscommonlyusedinpolicycircles.Thisreferstothe
globalbudgetwehaveforallemissionsfromallsectorsfortheperiod2011to2100.Tounderstandwhatemissionsareavailablefrom2016onwards,itisnecessarytosubtractthoseemissionsreleasedbetween2011and2016.BasedonCDIACdata,thisisatleast150GtCO2whichleavesabudgetof700-850GtCO2efortheperiod2016-2100.
368. AlthoughenergyproductionisamajorsourceofGHGemissions,agriculture,deforestation,
andcementusearealsoimportantsources.Anoptimisticestimateofemissionsfromdeforestationandcementprocessfor2016to2100wouldbeintheregionof60GtCO2and150GtCO2respectively,leavingan‘energy-only’globalbudgetof490-640GtCO2efortheperiod2016to2100.380
369. Combiningoptimisticassumptionsaboutcurtailingdeforestationandcementemissionswith
theIPCC’sheadlinebudgetof1,000GtCO2wouldequatewithglobalreductionsinenergy-relatedemissionsofatleast10%perannumfrom2025,transitioningrapidlytowardszeroemissionsby2050.381382
370. CurrentGHGemissionstrendsarenotreassuring.Globally,since2000,GHGemissionshavebeenrisingataround2%everyyear,poweredlargelybygrowthinChinaandotheremergingeconomies.383Overallglobalenergydemandgrewby27%from2001to2010,largelyconcentratedinAsia(79%),theMiddleEastandAfrica(32%),andLatinAmerica(32%)onthe
377ClarkeL,JiangK,AkimotoKetal.Assessingtransformationpathways.InEdenhofer,Pichs-Madruga,Sokona(Eds.)Climatechange2014:MitigationofclimatechangecontributionofWorkingGroupIIItotheFifthAssessmentReportoftheIPCC.CambridgeUniversityPress;2014378AndersonK,2015.OntheDualityofClimateScientists.NatureGeoscience,DOI:10.1038/ngeo2559.379Fuss,S.etal.Bettingonnegativeemissions.Nature.4.850-853(2014)380AndersonK,2015.OntheDualityofClimateScientists.NatureGeoscience,DOI:10.1038/ngeo2559.381Krey,V,Masera,G,Blanford,Tetal.AnnexII:metrics&methodology.in:OEdenhofer,RPichs-Madruga,YSokona,(Eds.)Climatechange2014:mitigationofclimatechangecontributionofWorkingGroupIIItotheFifthAssessmentReportoftheIPCC.CambridgeUniversityPress;2014382EvenstabilisingCO2econcentrationstobetween450–650ppm(whichwouldbeconsistentwith2-4°Cofwarming),theglobalemissionratewouldneedtofallby3–6%peryear,aratethatsofarhasonlybeenassociatedwithmajorsocialupheavalandeconomiccrisis.See:Beyond‘dangerous’climatechange:emissionscenariosforanewworld.PhilosTransAMathPhys.EngSci.2011(1934):20–44383Summaryforpolicymakers.In:Edenhofer,Pichs-Madruga,Sokona(Eds.)Climatechange2014:MitigationofclimatechangecontributionofWorkingGroupIIItotheFifthAssessmentReportoftheIPCC.CambridgeUniversityPress;2014.
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basisofterritorialaccounting.384However,consumption-basedaccountingshowsthatmostoftherecentgrowthinenergyexpenditurehasbeendrivenbyconsumptioninhigh-incomeregions.385
371. Accordingtooneassessment,energyexpenditureinnon-OECDcountrieswilldoubleby2035from2010levels,withOECDcountriesseeinga14%increaseoverthesameperiod.386Whilemostoftheincreaseinprimaryenergydemandoccursinemergingeconomies,mostofthefutureprojectedgrowthinenergyexpenditureisexpectedtobedrivenbyconsumptioninhigh-incomeregions.
372. Atthecurrentglobalemissionrate,the‘carbonbudget’describedabovecouldbedepletedwithinaslittleas24years,possiblysooner.Thewindowofopportunitytopreventpotentiallycatastrophicclimatechangeisthereforesmall.
373. TheParisAgreement(December2015)hasbeenheraldedasmarkinganewlevelofinternationalcommitmenttoaddressingthethreatofglobalwarming.TheprincipalaimoftheAgreementistohold“theincreaseintheglobalaveragetemperaturetowellbelow2°Cabovepre-industriallevelsandtopursueeffortstolimitthetemperatureincreaseto1.5°Cabovepre-industriallevels,recognizingthatthiswouldsignificantlyreducetherisksandimpactsofclimatechange”.
374. TheParisAgreementalsonotesthatcountrieswillaimtoreachglobalpeakingofGHGemissions“assoonaspossible”,whilstrecognisingthatpeaking“willtakelongerfordevelopingcountryparties”.
375. However,thevoluntarypledgesmadebyindividualcountriestoreducetheirGHGemissions
donotmatchtheambitionoftheAgreement’sgoal.TheUS,forexample,hasonlypledgedtoreduceitsemissionsby12-19%from1990levels.Evenifallcountriesdeliverontheircurrentpledges,thepredictedlevelofglobalwarmingarisingfromcumulativeemissionswouldbebetween2.8oCand4oCabovepre-industriallevels.
376. AnalysisofthelatestUNpledgesbyClimateActionTrackersuggeststhatglobalemissions
areontracktoreach53-59GtCO2ein2030,whichissignificantlyabovepresentglobalemissionsofabout48GtCO2e.Furthermore,therearegapsbetweencurrentpolicyprojectionsandcountrypledgesmeaningthatcurrentpoliciesarenotstrongenoughtoachievetheseconservativepledges.387
384Bruckner,T,Bashmakov,I,Mulugetta,Yetal.EnergySystems.in:OEdenhofer,RPichs-Madruga,YSokona,(Eds.)Climatechange2014:mitigationofclimatechangecontributionofWorkingGroupIIItotheFifthAssessmentReportoftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange.CambridgeUniversityPress,Cambridge,UKandNewYork,NY;2014385BarrettJ,LeQuéré,LenzenM,PetersG,RoelichK,andWiedmannT,2011.Consumption-basedemissionsreporting.MemorandumsubmittedbyUKERC(CON19).http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201012/cmselect/cmenergy/writev/consumpt/con20.htm;.386InternationalEnergyAgency(IEA).Worldenergyoutlook2013.IEA,Paris;2013387See:http://climateactiontracker.org/global/173/CAT-Emissions-Gaps.html
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377. ThegapbetweentheclimatescienceandtheactualpoliciesandplanstoreduceGHG
emissionsisthereforeconsiderable.Thispartlyreflectsareluctancetoabandonourdependenceonbothfossilfuelsandunsustainableconsumptionpatterns.ItalsoreflectsafaithinfuturetechnologiesbeingdevelopedtosequesterGHGsfromtheatmosphere.388
Theroleofnaturalgasinmitigatingglobalwarming
377. Proponentsofnaturalgasarguethatitisacleanformofenergywhencomparedtocoalandoilandthatitsuseforelectricitygenerationinsteadwillhelpreducetherateatwhichthecarbonbudgetisdepleted.Inordertoassessthepotentialfutureimpactofnaturalgasoncarbonbudgetsandglobalwarming,lifecycleanalyses(LCAs)areconductedtodeterminetheamountofGHGsemittedacrossallstagesofgasproductionandend-use.389
378. TheseLCAsareinevitablyinfluencedbyanumberofvariableswhichproduceawiderangeofmeasuresoftheglobalwarmingpotentialofnaturalgas.Thevariablesinclude:i)theamountoffugitiveemissionsreleaseddirectlyintotheatmosphere;ii)whetherthegasproducedisliquefiedandtransportedbeforeuse(becausebothliquefactionandtransportationrequiredenergy);iii)theefficiencyofthepowerstationsusedtoconvertgasintoelectricity;iv)theuseofCCStechnologies;andv)thetimehorizonoverwhichtheglobalwarmingpotentialofmethaneandcarbondioxideareassessed.Whencomparingtheglobalwarmingpotentialofgasagainstotherenergysources,therelativeefficienciesofcoalpowerstationsandtheimpactofgasoncoal,oilandrenewableenergyarealsorelevant.
379. AkeyfactorinLCAsofnaturalgasisfugitiveemissions.AccordingtoHowarth,whilefora
givenunitofenergyproduced,carbondioxideemissionsarelessforshalegasandconventionalnaturalgasthanthoseforoilandcoal,thetotalGHGfootprintofshalegasmaybegreaterthanotherfossilfuelswhenmethaneemissionsareincluded.390
380. SanchezandMays(2015)modelledwhatleakagerateofnaturalgasinelectricitygeneration
wouldcauseCO2eemissionsofnaturalgastobecomeequivalenttothoseofcoal,andfoundthattheleakageratemustbelowerthan3.9%inthelife-cycleofitsproduction,distributionand
388Inparticular,biomassenergycarboncaptureandstorage(BECCS)hasbecomeprominentafterParis.BECCSinvolvescoveringlargeareasoftheplanetwithbio-energycropsthatwillabsorbcarbondioxidethroughphotosynthesis.Periodicallythesecropswouldbeharvested;processedforworldwidetravel;andeventuallycombustedinthermalpowerstations.Thecarbondioxidewouldthenbeextractedfromthewastegases,compressed(almosttoaliquid);pumpedthroughlargepipes(potentiallyoververylongdistances);andfinallystoreddeepundergroundinvariousgeologicalformations(e.g.exhaustedoilandgasreservoirsorsalineaquifers).389NotethatLCAsdonotincludemeasuresof“indirectfugitiveemissions”,i.e.thegeologicalseepsinducedbyfracking,whichmaybelargeenoughtonegatetheclaimthatfrackingiscleanerthancoal.390HowarthR,2015.Methaneemissionsandclimaticwarmingriskfromhydraulicfracturingandshalegasdevelopment:implicationsforpolicy.EnergyandEmissionControlTechnologies2015:345–54
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use,whenlookedatovera20-yeartimehorizon.AbovethisthresholdtheGHGfootprintadvantageofnaturalgasiseliminated.391
381. TheGWPofshalegasrelativetoconventionalnaturalgasiscontentious.Burnhametal’s
analysisoflifecycleGHGemissionsconcludedthatshalegaslife-cycleemissionswere6%lowerthanconventionalnaturalgas(23%lowerthangasolineand33%lowerthancoal).However,therangeinvaluesforshaleandconventionalgasoverlap,sothedifferenceisnotstatisticallysignificant.392Keyfactors,highlightedbythisstudy,aretheassumptionsmadeabouttheuseof‘greentechnologies’andtherateofupstreamfugitiveemissions,aswellastherelativeefficiencyofpowerstations.
382. LaurenziandJersey’s(2013)LCAofshalegasfromtheMarcellusshaleforpowergeneration
foundthatatypicalgaslifecycleyields466kgCO2eq/MWh(80%confidenceinterval:450−567kgCO2eq/MWh)ofGHGemissions.Theirresultswereinfluencedstronglybytheestimatedultimaterecovery(EUR)ofthewellandthepowerplantefficiency(theirresultswerebasedonelectricitygenerationatacombinedcyclegasturbinepowerplantanda100yeartimehorizon).TheyfoundthatthecarbonfootprintofMarcellusgasis53%(80%CI:44−61%)lowerthancoal,andcomparabletothatofonshoreconventionalnaturalgas.393Operationsassociatedwithhydraulicfracturingconstitutedonly1.2%ofthelifecycleGHGemissions.
383. WeberandClavin’sreviewoftheLCAliteratureconcludedthattheupstreamcarbon
footprintsofdifferenttypesofgasproductionarelikelytobesimilar.However,theyfoundthattheupstreamfootprintislessthan25%ofthetotalcarbonfootprintofgas,andnotethattheefficiencyofproducingheat,electricity,andtransportationservicesisofequalorgreaterimportancewhenidentifyingemissionreductionopportunities.Theyalsonote,asdomostotherauthors,thatbetterdataareneededtoreducetheuncertaintyinnaturalgas’scarbonfootprint,andthatunderstandingsystem-levelclimateimpactsofshalegasthroughshiftsinnationalandglobalenergymarketsisalsoimportantandrequiresmoredetailedenergyandeconomicsystemsassessments.394
384. RegardlessofanymeasureoftheGWPofnaturalgasperunitofenergyservice(e.g.electricityorheating),thetotalvolumeofgasproductionandconsumptionisalsoimportant.Forexample,accordingtoMcLeodatel’s(2014)model,ifgaspricesarekeptlow(asanticipated)
391SanchezN&MaysD,2015Effectofmethaneleakageonthegreenhousegasfootprintofelectricitygeneration,ClimaticChangeNovember2015,Volume133,Issue2,pp169-178392Burnham,A.eta,2012.Life-cyclegreenhousegasemissionsofshalegas,naturalgas,coal,andpetroleum.Environ.Sci.Technol.46,619–627.393LaurenziIJ.AndJerseyGR,2013.LifecyclegreenhousegasemissionsandfreshwaterconsumptionofMarcellusshalegas.Environ.Sci.Technol.47,4896–4903.394WeberCandClavinC.Lifecyclecarbonfootprintofshalegas:Reviewofevidenceandimplications.Environ.Sci.Technol.2012,46,5688−5695.
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aglobalwarmingpotentialofmethaneof72over20yearsgeneratesoverallenergysystemGHGemissionsin2050thatare6%higherthanin2010.395
385. Usingsimulationsoffivestate-of-the-artintegratedassessmentmodelsofenergy–
economy–climatesystems,McJeonetal(2014)indicatethatafuturescenarioofgloballyabundantgaswouldleadtoanoverallincreasein‘climateforcing’.396Themodelsfoundthatwhilegassubstituteslargelyforcoal,italsosubstitutesnuclearandrenewableenergy,andtendstoincreaseeconomicactivity.Thisfindingechoesthe‘GoldenAgeofGas’scenariopresentedbytheIEAwhichindicatedaprojected3.5°Cwarmingasaconsequence.397
386. ThereisevidencethatwhileUSshalegasdisplacedcoaluseforelectricitygeneration(andhelpedreduceGHGemissionsfromtheenergysectorby12%between2005and2012),thedisplacedUScoalwasexportedandburntabroad.398Asaresult,CO2eemissionsfromthecombustionofallfossilfuelsgeneratedfromtheUSactuallyrosebyapproximately10%.399
387. Thepointaboutnewgasreservesincreasingthethreatofglobalwarmingbysimplyadding
totheavailablestockoffossilfuelwasmadebyDECC’sformerChiefScientificAdvisorwhonoted:“Ifacountrybringsanyadditionalfossilfuelreserveintoproduction,thenintheabsenceofstrongclimatepolicies,webelieveitislikelythatthisproductionwouldincreasecumulativeemissionsinthelongrun.Thisincreasewouldworkagainstglobaleffortsonclimatechange.”400TheEnvironmentalReportpublishedbyDECCinrelationtothe14thonshorelicensingroundalsopointstothedangersofshalegasmerelydisplacingcoalandoilratherthanreplacingthemaltogetherasasourceofenergy.401
388. Fossilfuel‘reserves’areknownfossilfuelsthatareeconomically‘extractable’.Thevolumeoffossilfuelreservesisthereforepartlyafunctionofthefossilfuelpricewhichishighlyvolatile.Somereportsdistinguishbetweentheconceptsof‘carbonbubble’beingafinancialissue,and‘unburnablecarbon’beingatechnologicalissue.
389. Theestimatedamountof‘unburnablecarbon’rangesfrom49%to80%ofoverallreserves.402McGladeandEkins(2015)concludedthat50%ofexistingglobalgasreservesare
395McLeodetal,2014,EmissionsImplicationsofFutureNaturalGasProductionandUseintheUSandintheRockyMountainRegion,EnvironSciTechnol2014;48,13036-13044396McJeon,Hetal(2014)Limitedimpactondecadal-scaleclimatechangefromincreaseduseofnaturalgas,Nature514,482–485,doi:10.1038/nature13837397IEA,WorldEnergyOutlook2011SpecialReport:AreWeEnteringAGoldenAgeofGas?,InternationalEnergyAgency,Paris,France,2011398BroderickandAnderson,2012.HasUSShaleGasReducedCO2Emissions?ExaminingrecentchangesinemissionsfromtheUSpowersectorandtradedfossilfuels,TyndallManchester,UniversityofManchester399USEIADecember2014MonthlyEnergyReview400DJMacKay&TJStonePotentialGreenhouseGasEmissionsAssociatedwithShaleGasExtractionandUse(DECC,2013)401StrategicEnvironmentalAssessmentforFurtherOnshoreOilandGasLicensingEnvironmentalReport(December2013)–p.88.402Budinis,Krevor,MacDowelletal,2016.CanTechnologyunlock‘unburnable’carbon?London:SustainableGasInstitute
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‘unburnable’(including>80%ofglobalpotentialunconventionalgasreserves),inadditiontoathirdofoiland80%ofcoalreserves.403
390. McGladeandEkins(2015)notethatCCShasthelargesteffectofanytechnologyoncumulativefossilfuelproductionlevels.CCScouldenablecountriestocontinuetoincludefossilfuelsintheirenergymixandthereforecanunlockassetsthatwouldotherwisebestranded.404AccordingtotheWorldEnergyOutlook(2012),withoutCCS,lessthanathirdofglobalcarbonreservescanbeburntinthe2°Cscenario.405OnestudyestimatedthatCCScouldenable65%ofreservestobeusedinsteadof33%.406
391. TheUKEnergyResearchCentreconcludedthatwhilethereisapotentialfornaturalgastosupportatransitiontowardsalow-carbonenergysystem,thebridgingperiodisstrictlytime-limitedandonlyholdstrueifanyabsoluteandrelativeincreaseingasconsumptionoccursalongsideamuchgreaterreductionincoalconsumptioninbothabsoluteandrelativeterms.407Furthermore,itmustbeaccompaniedbyamuchlargerincreaseinlow-carbonenergysources.Importantly,theabilityforgastoplayabridgingrolevariesfromoneregiontoanotherandisdependentalsoontheavailabilityofCCS.Of13regionsstudied,gashadlimitedornopotentialtoactasatransitionfuelinsixregions(Africa,Canada,CentralandSouthAmerica,theMiddleEastandMexico);goodpotentialinthree(Australia,OtherDevelopingAsia,andtheUS),andstrongpotentialinfour(China,Europe,IndiaandJapanandSouthKorea)ifCCSisavailable.IfCCSisnotavailable,naturalgasmayactasastrongbridgeinonlyChina.
392. TheLancet-UCLCommissiononClimateChangeandHealthwasmorecautiousandnotedthatthetimewhenfuelswitchingcoulddecarbonisetheglobaleconomysufficientlyquicklytoavoiddangerousclimatechangehasalmostcertainlypassed.
393. RegardlessoftheavailabilityandaffordabilityofsafeandeffectiveCCStechnologies,thereisstillalimitedcarbonbudgetandatimeframewithinwhichtheworldneedstoachievenetzeroGHGemissions.AccordingtoHowarth(2015),theimperativetoreducemethaneemissionstoslowglobalwarmingoverthecomingfewdecadesmeansthattheonlypathforwardistoreducetheuseofallfossilfuelsasquicklyaspossible.Thereisnobridgefuel,andswitchingfromcoaltoshalegasisacceleratingratherthanslowingglobalwarming.
394. Akeyargumentagainstthedevelopmentofmoreshalegasreservesisthatinvestmentinefficiencyandrenewableswouldbeamorecost-effectivesolutionthancoal-to-gassubstitution.
403McGladeCandEkinsP(2015)Thegeographicaldistributionoffossilfuelsunusedwhenlimitingglobalwarmingto2°C,Nature517,187—190,doi:10.1038/nature14016404IPCC(2005).IPCCSpecialReport:Carboncaptureandstorage.Availableonline:www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/srccs/srccs_wholereport.pdf405IEA(2012).WorldEnergyOutlook2012.www.worldenergyoutlook.org/publications/weo-2012/406Budinis,Krevor,MacDowelletal,2016.CanTechnologyunlock‘unburnable’carbon?London:SustainableGasInstitute407McGladeC,BradshawM,AnandarajahG,WatsonJandEkinsP.(2014)ABridgetoaLow-CarbonFuture?ModellingtheLong-TermGlobalPotentialofNaturalGas-ResearchReport(UKERC:London).
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395. Oneconcernisthatthedeploymentofnaturalgasrisksdelayingthedeploymentofrenewableenergysystems.AccordingtoZhangetal(2016),thiscouldoffsetallthepotentialclimatebenefitsderivedfromreplacingcoalenergysystemswithnaturalgasenergysystems.408Theynotethattherisksarehigherwhenthenaturalgasenergysystemisinefficientandthecoalenergysystemisefficient.Inaddition,theyhighlighttheimportanceofthechoiceoftimehorizonbecausemethaneisamuchstrongerGHGthancarbondioxidebutwhichactsforamuchshortertime.409
396. Zhangetal’sanalysisshowsthatnaturalgascanprovideclimatebenefitasa‘bridgingfuel’if
thecoalenergysystemisinefficient;thenaturalgasenergysystemisefficient;thenaturalgasleakagerateislow;andtheevaluationtimehorizonfortheglobalwarmingpotentialofmethaneislongerthan40years.However,intheabsenceofCCS,naturalgasusecannotprovidethedeepreductionsinGHGemissionsneededtopreventdangerousclimatechange.Theywarnthat“Iftheintroductionofnaturalgassubstantiallydelaysthetransitiontonear-zeroemissionsystems,thereispotentialthattheintroductionofnaturalgascouldleadtogreateramountsofwarmingthanwouldhaveoccurredotherwise.
Q.TheUK:GHGemissionsandenergypolicy
TheUK’scarbonbudgets
397. Government’spolicyonGHGemissionsisbasedonrecommendationsmadebytheCommitteeonClimateChange(CCC).TheCCC’sfirstreport,whichbuiltontheIPCC’sfourthassessmentreport(2007),concludedthateconomicandpoliticalconstraintsmadeitimpossibletoensure“withhighlikelihood”thatatemperatureriseofmorethan2°Ccanbeavoided.410Instead,itofferedtwonationalandcentury-widecarbonbudgets:onegavea56%chanceofexceeding2°Cwhiletheothergavea63%chanceofexceeding2°C.Thegovernmentchosethelatter,alongwithanobligationtoreduceemissionsin2050by80%comparedto1990levels.
398. TheCCChassubsequentlypublishedaseriesofcarbonbudgetsforasetofsequentialfive-
yearperiods.Thefourthcarbonbudget(2023-2027)cappedemissionsat1,950MtCO2e,whichisequivalenttoanaverage52%below1990levels.Thefifthcarbonbudget(2028-2032)of1,765MtCO2e(includingemissionsfrominternationalshipping),whichwouldlimitannualemissionstoanaverage57%below1990levels,hasrecentlybeenenactedintolaw.411
399. Thepastandprojectedemissionstrajectoryisshowninthediagrambelow.ThetrajectoryproposedbytheCCCinvolvesasmoothandincrementalreductioninemissionsacrossthe
408ZhangX,MyhrvoldN,HausfatherZ,CaldeiraK(2016)Climatebenefitsofnaturalgasasabridgefuelandpotentialdelayofnear-zeroenergysystems,AppliedEnergy167(2016)317–322409AccordingtoHowarth,theGWPofmethaneis86morethanthatofcarbondioxidewhenaveragedover20years(fortwoequalmassesofthegasesemittedintotheatmosphere).410CCC,2008.Buildingalow-carboneconomy-theUK'scontributiontotacklingclimatechange.411CCC,2015.TheFifthCarbonBudget–Thenextsteptowardsalow-carboneconomy
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economyofaround13MtCO2e(3%)peryearfrom2014to2030.Thetargetsetforthefirstcarbonbudget(2008-2012)hasbeenmet,andthetargetforthesecondbudget(2013-2018)isoncoursetobemet.412
Source:DECC(2015)FinalUKgreenhousegasemissionsnationalstatistics:1990-2013;DECC(2015)ProvisionalUKgreenhousegasemissionsnationalstatistics;DECCEnergyModel;CCCanalysis.Notes:Datalabelsshowreductionsinannualemissionsrelativeto1990.Historicalemissionsareona‘gross’basis(i.e.actualemissions).Projectionsandcarbonbudgetsareonthecurrentbudgetaccountingbasis:netcarbonaccountexcludinginternationalaviationandshipping(IAS),butallowingforIAStobeincludedinthe2050target.
400. AlthoughtheUK’sstatutorytargettoreduceGHGemissionsin2050by80%comparedto
1990soundsambitious,therearereasonswhythetargetisinadequate.
401. First,thetargetsarebasedontheintegratedassessmentmodelsoftheIPCCwhichare(asexplainedearlier)believedtobeover-optimistic.
402. Second,thebudgetisbasedonadangerouslevelofriskthatacceptsa63%chanceof
exceeding2°C.
403. Third,thebudgetrepresentsanunfairshareoftheglobalcarbonbudget,makinglittleallowanceforhistoricalresponsibilityforGHGemissions,ortheconsiderablysuperiorfinancialandtechnicalcapabilityoftheUKcomparedtomostothercountries.413
404. Fourth,theGHGemissionstargetsarecalculatedas‘territorialemissions’anddonottake
intoaccounttheGHGsemittedelsewheretoproducegoodsandcommoditiesthatare412Thecarbonbudgetfor2014was520MtCO2e,excludingemissionsfrominternationalaviationandshipping.413FriendsoftheEarth,2015.WhytheUKmustcommittoitsfairshareofemissionscutsaheadoftheParisclimatetalks.November.
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eventuallyimportedintotheUK.IntheUK,whileterritorial-basedemissionshaveshowna19%reductionbetween1990and2008,consumption-basedemissionshaveincreasedby20%inthesameperiod(drivenbyGHGsembodiedinimportedproducts,particularlyfromChina).414
405. Fifth,theplannedreductionofemissionsisspreadacrosstheperiodto2050ratherthanfront-loaded.ThisrunscountertotheclearmessagefromclimatescientiststhatweneedtofrontloadasmuchofourGHGemissionsreductionsaspossible.415
406. Earlyemissionsreductionwilldelayclimatedisruptionandreducetheoverallcostof
abatementbyavoidingdrasticandexpensivelast-minuteaction.Furthermore,itallowsthewindowofopportunityforthedevelopmentanddeploymentofnewtechnologiestobeheldopenforlonger.Delayedemissionreductioncouldalsoforcetheuptakeofriskierandunprovenmitigationtechnologieswithincreasedriskofunintendedconsequencesforhumanwellbeingandecosystems.416
Trendsinenergyuse407. Thepatternofenergyproductionandconsumptionhaschangedconsiderablysince1990in
termsofGHGemissions,energymixandenergyuse.ThefigurebelowshowsthepatternofUKGHGemissionsbysectorsince1990,andindicatesasteadyfallinGHGemissionssince1990.
Source:DECC(2015)FinalUKgreenhousegasemissionsnationalstatistics:1990-2013;DECC(2015)ProvisionalUKgreenhousegasemissionsnationalstatistics;CCCanalysis.
414http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201012/cmselect/cmenergy/1646/1646vw13.htm415Edenhofer,Pichs-Madruga,Sokona(Eds.)Climatechange2014:mitigationofclimatechangecontributionofWorkingGroupIIItotheFifthAssessmentReportoftheIPCC.CambridgeUniversityPress;2014.416Mills,E.Weighingtherisksofclimatechangemitigationstrategies.BullAtSci.2012;68:67–78
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408. ThefallinGHGemissionsisduetoacombinationoffactors:amoveawayfromcoalandoiltowardsgasandrenewablesingeneratingelectricity;contractionofenergy-intensiveindustries(includingironandsteel);improvedefficiencyofboilersandbuildings;economicrecessionpost-2008;areductionincattlenumbers,syntheticfertiliserapplicationandbiodegradablewastesenttolandfill;andtheimplementationofmethanerecoverysystems.
409. Importantly,thegraphabovedenotesthepatternforterritorialGHGemissionsanddoesnotreflecttheGHGemissionsofgoodsandproductsproducedelsewherebutconsumedintheUK.SoaproportionoftheUK’sreductioninGHGemissionshasessentiallyresultedfromGHGemissionsbeingexportedoevrseas.
410. Inspiteofimprovementsintheaveragefuelefficiencyofvehicles,transportsectoremissions(excludingemissionsfrominternationalaviationandshipping)havenotdecreasedsubstantiallyandactuallyincreasedby1.1%between2013and2014.417
411. In2014,directdomesticenergyconsumptionintheUKwas142.8milliontonnesofoilequivalent(Mtoe).Thetwolargestsourcesoffuelwerepetroleumliquids(86%ofwhichwereusedfortransport)andnaturalgas(60%ofwhichwasusedinthedomesticsector).Overall,fossilfuelsaccountedfor84.5%oftheUK’senergysupply.418
412. UKemissionsfor2014weresplitbetweensixsectorsbytheCCCasfollows:power/electricitygeneration(23%),industry(21%),buildings(16%),transport(23%),agricultureandland-use,land-usechangeandforestry(9%),andwasteandfluorinatedgases(7%).
413. ThepatternofprimaryfuelsusedtogenerateelectricityintheUKhaschangedsignificantly
overtheyears,reflectingalowerdependenceoncoalandgreaterrelianceongasandrenewableenergy.Thesubstitutionofcoalbygashasbeenoccurringsincethemajorreductionsincoaluseover1970-1980;andtheso-called‘dashforgas’inthe1990s.Inthefourthquarterof2015,themixoffuelstogenerateelectricitywas:gas(29.7%),renewables(26.9%),coal(19.9%),nuclear(15.6%),andoilandothersources(2.3%).419
414. TheshareofcoalinUKprimaryenergyconsumptionhasfallenfrom40%in1970to16%by2014,whilegasuseincreasedfrom5%to47%.Ofthecoalusedin2014,nearly80%wasusedtogenerateelectricity.420Projectionsto2030showthatcoal-basedelectricitygenerationwillfallby
417DECC,2015.https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/416810/2014_stats_release.pdf418DECC,2015.EnergyConsumptionintheUK.https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/energy-consumption-in-the-uk419Statistics-NationalStatistics.EnergyTrendsSection5:Electricity.Availableat:https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/437802/Electricity.pdf420DECC,2015.EnergyConsumptionintheUK.https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/energy-consumption-in-the-uk
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63%from2015levelsin2020.Thegovernmenthascommittedtophaseoutallcoaluseforelectricitygenerationby2025.
415. Becausemostcoalplantswillhavebeenretiredbeforeanysubstantialproductionofshale
gasoccurs,theGHGfootprintofshalegasrelativetocoalisnotrelevant.Rather,shalegasneedstobecomparedwithotherpotentialsourcesofelectricityandheatingincludingbiogas,conventionalgas,biomassandrenewables.
416. Ofthetotalnaturalgasconsumedin2011,about52%wasusedtoprovideheatforbuildingsandindustry,while34%wasburnedinpowerstationstogenerateelectricity.421In2010,85%ofhomeswereheatedbygas.422
417. In2013,11.2Mtoeofprimaryenergyusewasaccountedforbyrenewables,75%ofwhichwastogenerateelectricity,and15%wasusedtogenerateheat.423In2013,70%ofrenewableenergycamefrombioenergy(includingwood,woodwasteandagriculturalby-products),whileaboutafifthcamefromwind.Hydro-electricandsolarPVcontributedlessthan10%.
AchievingtheUK’s2050targetforGHGemissionsreductions
418. Threeaspectsofdecarbonisationarecrucial:energyefficiency,energyconservation,andashifttolow-carbonelectricity.
419. ThecurrentpatternofGHGemissionssourcesin2014andthestatutorytargetfor2050areshowninthediagrambelow.
421DepartmentofEnergyandClimateChange.(2013).TheFutureofHeating:MeetingtheChallenge.[Online]Availableat:https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/190149/16_04-DECCThe_Future_of_Heating_Accessible-10.pdf422NationalGrid.(2014).UKFutureEnergyScenarios;UKGasandElectricityTransmission.[Online]Availableat:http://www2.nationalgrid.com/uk/industry-information/future-ofenergy/future-energy-scenarios/423DepartmentofEnergyandClimateChange.(2014c).UKEnergyinBrief2014.[Online]Availableat:https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/350941/UK_Energy_in_Brief_2014_revised.pdf
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Source:DECC (2015) Final UK greenhouse gas emissions national statistics: 1990-2013; DECC (2010) Final UK greenhouse gas emissions national statistics: 1990-2008; CCC analysis. Notes:International aviation and shipping data are for 2013.
420. AprojectionfromOctober2015suggeststhatGHGemissionswillfallby15%between2014
and2020,drivenlargelybyasignificantreductioninpowersectoremissionsduetothe2020renewablestargetandtheshiftawayfromcoal.FurtherreductionsarealsoexpectedintransportduetotheimpactoftheEUnewcarandvanCO2targetsfor2020,andapartialreplacementofoil-basedfuelswithbiofuels.424
421. TheUKissettomeetitsthirdcarbonbudgettargetin2022.However,maintainingprogressbeyondthistowardsthe2050targetwillbecomeincreasinglydifficult.AccordingtoDECC,achievingthetargetsetfor2027andbeyond“willbemuchmorechallenging”.Althoughprimaryenergydemandisprojectedtofall11%overthenext10years,demandmaystarttoincreaseagainbecausefurtherimprovementsinenergyefficiencymaybeunabletooffsettheimpactofeconomicandpopulationgrowth.
422. WhileDECC’sfutureprojectionsassumethatcurrentpoliciestoreduceemissionsaredeliveredinfull,theCCCnotedintheir2014and2015ProgressReportsthatanumberofpoliciesareatriskoffailureduetodesignanddeliveryproblems,orbecausetheyareunfunded.TheseincludetheAgriculturalActionPlan,policiestoimprovethefuelefficiencyofHGVs,theRenewableHeatIncentivepost-2016,ZeroCarbonHomesandtheRenewableTransportFuelsObligation.
424ItremainstobeseenwhatimpacttherecentreferendumresultonEuropewillhaveintermsofEUdirectivesthatunderpintheUK’semissionsreductionstargets.
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423. TheCCChighlightsthatreachingthe2050targetwouldrequire:a)continuedtake-upofultra-lowemissionvehiclesandlow-carbonheat(e.g.heatnetworksandheatpumps);b)improvedhomeinsulation;andc)deepreductionsinemissionsfromelectricitygeneration.425
424. Theearlydecarbonisationofthepowergenerationsectorandtheelectrificationofend-usesectorsfrom2030aredeemedcriticalbytheCCCandwillrequireastrongpolicyframework,includingelectricitymarketreform426andradicalchangesinenergyvectorsincludingswitchingfromgastoheatpumpsforheating.427Industrywillalsoneedtobedecarbonisedthroughincreasedelectrificationorcombustionofhydrogenfromlow-carbonsources.
425. TheCCCalsoemphasisestheneedforinvestmentindevelopingheatnetworks,electricvehiclechargingnetworksandpotentially,infrastructureforhydrogenapplications.Electricitynetworkswillalsoneedtobestrengthenedtocopewithnewdemands(e.g.fromheatpumps)andincreasinggenerationfromlow-carbonsources.Optionsdeemedtorepresentgoodvalueinvestmentsbefore2030includeonshoreandoffshorewind,ground-mountedsolar,andnuclear.428
426. AccordingtotheCCC,carboncaptureandstorageis“veryimportantinmeetingthe2050targetatleastcost,givenitspotentialtoreduceemissionsacrossheavyindustry,thepowersectorandperhapswithbioenergy,aswellasopeningupnewdecarbonisationpathways(e.g.basedonhydrogen)”.
427. OtherthemesintheCCC’sscenarioplanningformeetingthe2050targetinclude:agricultureemissionsfallingduetochangedfarmingpractices(e.g.on-farmefficiencies,improvedanimalfertility),reducedfoodwasteandadjustmentofdiettowardslesscarbon-intensivefoods;andaswitchtosustainablebioenergyprovidingaround10%ofprimaryenergyin2050.TheCCCassumesthatdemandforinternationalaviationislikelytogrowconsiderablyandthattherewillthereforeneedtobestrongefficiencyimprovementsinthatsector.
Theroleofgasingeneratingelectricity428. TheCCC’sscenariosforthepowersectorin2030includesaroleforunabatedgasgeneration
tocontinue.IntheCCC’scentralscenarioforthepowersector,unabatedgas-firedpowergenerationincreasestoabout38%ofsupplyinthemid-2020sbeforereducingto22%by2030,asCCSstartstoplayabiggerrole.However,accordingtotheCCC,thisbriefincreaseingasconsumptionforpowergenerationdoesnotrequireUKshalegasproduction,asit“couldbemetthroughatemporaryincreaseingasimports,forwhichtheUKalreadyhasadequateinfrastructure”.
425TheCommitteeonclimatechange.FourthCarbonBudgetReview–technicalreport–Chapter2426Dependingontheextentofelectrificationintransport,heatandotherapplications,thelevelofelectricityconsumptionin2050couldbe50-135%abovethelevelin2014.427CCC,2015.TheFifthCarbonBudget–Thenextsteptowardsalow-carboneconomy428CCC,2015.Powersectorscenariosforthefifthcarbonbudget
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429. Toeffectivelydecarbonisepower,transportandheatgenerationby2050,itwillbe
necessarytodecarboniseallnewinvestmentby2020forpowerwiththeexceptionofnewgaspowerstationsforback-upandasbalancingplant.ThismakesitimportantthattheUKdoesnotbuildtoomanynewgaspowerstations.
430. AccordingtotheCCC,tomeetthecarbonbudgettargets,themeancarbonintensityforelectricitygenerationneedstobebelow100gCO2/kWhby2030,andprobablyaslowas50gCO2/kWh.429
431. Meancarbonintensityforelectricitygenerationwasabout450gCO2/kWhin2014andprojectedtodropto200-250gCO2/kWhby2020.ProjectionsfromDECC,releasedinNovember2015,haveacentralscenarioof100g/kWhin2030430,whichisattheupperendoftheCCC-recommendedrange.TheCCC’sownscenarioforenergyproductionhavealsomovetowardstheupperendofthe50-100gCO2/kWhrangebecauseofdelaystonewnuclearandCCSprojects.431
432. TwocrucialfactorsdeterminingthefutureroleofgasaretheavailabilityofCCSandtheefficiencyofgas-firedpowerstations.
433. Currently,anefficientnew-buildgas-firedelectricitypowerstation(combinecyclegasturbines,CCGT)emitsaround345gCO2/kWh(thisfigurecanbehigherdependingontheefficiencyoftheparticularplantandwhetherlife-cycleemissionsaretakenintoaccount).Toputthisinperspective,thelife-cycleemissionsformaturerenewablesandnuclearcanbeintheregionof5-30gCO2/kWh.432However,ascenarioofefficientgaspowerstationscombinedwithCCScouldproducelifecycleemissionsof50-80gCO2/kWh.433434435
434. AccordingtoUKERC,theriskofcarbonlock-inneedstobeconsideredwithmodernCCGTplantshavingatechnicallifetimeofatleast25yearsandpolicymeasuresareneededtoensurethatanyCCGTsstillrequiredby2040areeitherfittedwithCCSoroperateatmuchlowerloadfactors.436
429TheCommitteeonclimatechange.FourthCarbonBudgetReview–technicalreport–Chapter2430DECC,2015.Updatedenergyandemissionsprojections:2015.Nov18th431CCC,2015.PowerSectorScenariosfortheFifthCarbonBudget.432TurconiR,BoldrinA,AstrupT(2013)Lifecycleassessment(LCA)ofelectricitygenerationtechnologies:overview,comparabilityandlimitations.RenewSustEnergRev28:555–565433Odeh,HillandForster,2013.CurrentandFutureLifecycleEmissionsofKey‘LowCarbon’TechnologiesandAlternatives.Seehttps://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Ricardo-AEA-lifecycle-emissions-low-carbon-technologies-April-2013.pdf434HammondGR,HowardHRandJonesCI,2013.TheenergyandenvironmentalimplicationsofUKmoreelectrictransitionpathways.EnergyPolicy52,103-116435CCC,2015.PowerSectorScenariosfortheFifthCarbonBudget.436McGladeC,PyeS,WatsonJ,BradshawMandEkinsP,2016.ThefutureroleofnaturalgasintheUK.London:UKEnergyResearchCentre
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Theroleofgasingeneratingheat
435. Intermsofheat,gasemitsapproximately200gCO2/kWhofheat,alevelwhichalsocannotbereconciledwiththeUK’scarbonbudget.Consequently,gashasamarginalandrapidlydecliningroleingeneratingelectricitypost-2030.
436. NeitherDECCnortheCCChavebeenabletodeveloplow-carbon(~2°C)post-2030scenariosthatmaintainasignificantroleforgasinsupplyingdomestic,commercialandindustrialheat.437
Thefutureroleofgas
437. Followingrecentmodellingwork438designedtoanalysearangeofpossiblefutureenergyscenariostheUKEnergyResearchCentre,concludedthatgasisunlikelytoactasacost-effective‘bridge’toadecarbonisedUKenergysystemexceptforashortperiodoftimefrom2015tillabout2020.Forthisreason,theysuggestthatitismoreappropriatetocharacterisegasas“ashort-termstop-gapuntillow-orzero-carbonenergysourcescancomeonstream”andthatwithoutCCS,“thescopeforUKgasusein2050islittlemorethan10%ofits2010level”.439
438. CCSemergesasacriticaltechnologyifgasistohaveasignificantrole,consistentwithUKcarbonreductiontargets,outto2050.ButevenwithCCS,becauseanynewgas-firedpowerstationswouldneedtooperateonrelativelylowloadfactors,theeconomicviabilityofinvestmentsinsuchnewgas-firedpowerstationsisquestionableandtheremaybelimitedcost-effectivescopeforgasuseinpowergenerationbeyond2030.
439. TheCCChasalsoexaminedthepotentialrolethatshalegasmayplaywithinfutureenergy
scenariosthatarecompatiblewiththeUK’scarbonbudgets.InJuly2016,itpublishedareportwhichconcludedthat“onshorepetroleumextractiononasignificantscaleisnotcompatiblewithUKclimatetargetsunlessthreetestsaremet”.440Thethreetestswere:
• Welldevelopment,productionanddecommissioningemissionsmustbestrictlylimited.• Gasconsumptionmustremaininlinewithcarbonbudgetsrequirements.• Emissionsfromshalegaswellswillneedtobeoffsetthroughreductionselsewherein
theUKeconomy440. TheCCC’sheadlineconclusionsmerelystatethatSGPissafetodevelopifitdoesn’tbreach
theUK’semissionstargets.However,theanalysisconductedbytheCCCtoassessthepotentialimpactofSGPonGHGemissionsisworthdiscussinginsomedetail.
437AEAfortheCCC.Decarbonisingheatinbuildings:2030–2050438Twomodelswereused.Onewasusedtogeneratealargenumberofsensitivityscenariosincorporatingavarietyoftechnological,resourceandpriceassumptionsandkeyuncertaintiesaboutthedevelopmentofthefutureenergysystem.AsecondwasusedtoprojectfutureUKenergyuse.439McGladeC,PyeS,WatsonJ,BradshawMandEkinsP,2016.ThefutureroleofnaturalgasintheUK.London:UKEnergyResearchCentre440CCC,2016.ThecompatibilityofUKonshorepetroleumwithmeetingtheUK’scarbonbudgets.
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441. InordertoestimatethepossibleimpactofSGPonGHGemissions,theCCCconstructedamodelbasedonanumberofscenariosandassumptionsthatinvolvedanumberofvariables:
• Globalwarmingpotential(GWP)ofmethane• Productionscenarios(numberofwellsandrateofwellconstruction)• Wellproductivity• Fugitiveemissionsrates
442. MethanewasassumedtohaveaGWP100of25whichequatestoatonneofmethanehavingthesameeffectas25tonnesofCO2overaperiodof100years.
443. Toestimatetherateoffugitiveemissions,theCCCconstructedfourregulatoryscenarios:• A‘noregulation’scenariowhichactsasabaseline.• A‘currentposition’scenariowhichreflectsthestatedpositionoftheEAregarding
theuseofRECs.• A‘minimumnecessaryregulation’scenariowhichinvolvesdeploymentoflowcost
mitigationoptionsincludingliquidunloadingtechnologiesandsemi-annualmonitoringoffugitiveemissions.
• A‘fullertechnicalmitigation’scenariowhichinvolvesdeploymentofadditionalmitigationoptionsincludingelectrificationofcontrolvalvesandsomecompressors.
443. TheCCCthenproducedlow,centralandhighestimatesofemissionsthatmightoccurunder
eachofthesefourregulatoryscenariosbasedonvariousrecentbottom-upstudiesfromtheUS,notingthatthereisalargerangeinresultsandthattheapplicabilityoftheseratestotheUKarequestionable.441Thesewerecalculatedforthefourregulatoryscenariosasfollows:
441ThepreciseestimatesusedintheCCC’sanalysisandhowtheserelatetodataintheliteratureareoutlinedinasupportingannex.
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444. TheCCCthendevelopedproductionscenariosbasedonthenumberofwellsdrilledandtheproductivityofwellsintheUK.442Highlevelsofproductivitymeanloweremissionsperunitofenergyproduced(andalsolowercostsperunitenergy),buthigheroveralllevelsofemissions.
445. Theamountofactualmethaneemittedisinfluencedbythetypeofregulatoryframeworkadopted(anditsactualeffectivenessinthefield),aswellastheassumptionsmadeaboutfugitiveemissionrates.Thediagrambelowshowstheactualamountsofmethaneemittedintotheatmosphereforthefourregulatoryscenarioswithhigh,centralandlowassumptionsaboutemissionsratesundera‘central’scenarioofwellproductivity.
446. Underhighproductionscenarios,theincreaseinGHGemissionsduetoSGPwasestimatedbe24MtCO2e/yearunderthe‘currentregulation’scenario,17Mtinthe‘minimumnecessaryregulation’scenario;andabout10Mtinthe‘fullertechnicalmitigation’scenario.Undercentralestimatesofproductiontheemissionswereestimatedtobe11Mtunderthe‘Minimumnecessaryregulation’scenarioand7Mtinthe‘fullertechnicalmitigation’scenario.
447. Undercentralestimatesforthe‘minimumnecessaryregulation’caseitwasestimatedthat
additionalemissionscouldbearound27Mtand52Mtoverthefourthandfifthcarbonbudgetsrespectively.
442Someemissionsscalewiththenumberofwellsdrilled(e.g.wellpreparation,completion,liquidunloadingandworkover),whileothersscalewiththeamountofgasproduced(e.g.processingandnormaloperation).
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448. TheCCCthenexaminedtheextenttowhichtheseadditionalGHGemissionscouldbeaccommodatedwithintheUK’scarbonbudgetsupto2030,andconcludesthataccommodatingadditionalemissionsfromSGP“maybepossible,althoughitwouldrequiresignificantandpotentiallydifficultoffsettingeffortelsewhere”.However,theroomformanoeuvreislimitedandshouldemissionsinothersectorsextendbeyondtheproposed‘central’futurescenariosdevelopedbytheCCC(e.g.uncontrolledexpansionofaviation,littleornoCCS,orfailuretodecarboniseheat),itbecomes“veryunlikelythattherewouldbescopeforadditionalemissionsfromshalegasexploitationconsistentwithmeetingcarbonbudgetsorthe2050target”.
449. TheCCCalsostatethatshouldtheemissionsimpactofSGPin2050besimilartothatin
2030,itwouldbe“considerablymoredifficultandexpensivetofindwaystooffsetthis”.AndaswiththeUKEnergyResearchCentre,theCCCunderlinesthecriticalimportanceofCCSbynotingthat“evenwithoutadditionalemissionsfromonshorepetroleumextraction,theabsenceofCCSislikelytorequirenear-fulldecarbonisationofsurfacetransportandheatinbuildingsby2050.
450. TheCCCconcludesthatwhiletheGHGfootprintofSGPissubjecttoconsiderableuncertainties,itisclearthat“tightregulationwithastronglegalfoundation”wouldbeneededtoshifttheestimatedrangeforemissionsdownwards.However,evenifGHGemissionscouldbereduced,thereremainuncertaintiesaboutwhetherSGPiscompatiblewiththeUK’sGHGemissionsreductiontargets.
451. Thecurrentevidencebasesuggeststhatwell-regulateddomesticproductioncouldhaveanemissionsfootprintslightlysmallerthanthatofimportedliquefiednaturalgas(LNG).
452. Ontopofthis,itshouldbenotedthatcertainaspectsoftheCCC’sanalysismaybebiasedinfavourofSGP.ForexampletheCCC’suseofaGWP100of25formethanehasnotusedthemoreupdatedformulaoftheIPCC’sFifthAssessmentwhichgivesmethaneaGWP100of28and34toaccountforthefeedbackeffectofwarmingindecreasingtheeffectivenessofnaturalCO2sinks.
453. TheCCChasalsodidnotmodeltheimpactofSGPoverashortertimehorizonwhichisrelevantbecausemethaneisashortlivedGHGwhoseglobalwarmingeffectismoreconcentratedacrossashorterperiod.WhileaGWP100formulaoverplaystherelativeimportanceofmethaneemissionsoveracentury-scale,itunderplaysitseffectinthenearterm.SomescientistsadvocateusingaGWP20formulawhichwouldgivemethaneaGWPthatis72timesgreaterthanCO2over20years.Giventheconcernsaboutpositivefeedbackloopsassociatedwithglobalwarming,thismaybeamoreappropriateapproachtotake,oronethatshouldhavebeenusedaswellasGWP100.
454. TheCCC’suseofbottom-upstudiestoestimatefugitiveemissionsratesmayalsoerrontheconservativesidegiventhattop-downstudieshaveconsistentlycalculatedhigherfugitiveemissionsrates.
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455. Finally,whiletheCCC’sreportwasfocusedonthepotentialimpactofSGPontheUK’scarbonbudgets,itisimperativethattheimpactofSGPisassessedatthegloballevel.ThepossibilitythatincreasedfossilfuelproductionintheUKmightleadtohigheroverallemissionsgloballywasnotexploredintheCCC’sreport(althoughitplanningtodosolaterin2016).443
456. AfinalpointworthnotingisthattheCCC’sanalysisincludedexaminingtheemissionsassociatedwithland-usechangesarisingfromSGP.TheynotedalifecycleanalysisconductedfortheScottishGovernmentwhichsuggestedthatland-usechangeemissionsarisingfromSGPinareaswithdeeppeatsoilcouldbeveryhigh444andledtheCCCtorecommendthatthedevelopmentofwellsinareaswithdeeppeatsoils”shouldnotbeallowed”.
Q.CarbonCaptureandStorage(CCS)
444. UncertaintyremainsoverwhetherCCScanbedeployedatthescalerequired,atreasonablecost,andwiththerequiredlevelofeffectiveness.Thegovernment’swithdrawalofsupportforthedevelopmentofCCS,maythereforecompromisetheUK’sdecarbonisationambitions.
445. AccordingtotheCCC,thegovernment’scancellationoftheCCSCommercialisationProgrammehasraiseddoubtsaboutthefutureroleofCCSandimpliesasubstantialdelayinitsdeploymentatscale.A“significantdelaycouldleadtolessfeasibleCCSdeploymentovertheperiodto2050,reducingitsroleindecarbonisationandimplyingalowerleveloffossilfuelconsumptioncompatiblewithmeetingthe2050target”.TheCCCstatethat“aUKapproachtodeliveryofcarboncaptureandstorage(CCS)isurgentlyneeded”.
446. CCSreferstoaprocessinvolvingthreemainsteps:1)theseparationofCO2fromagasstream;2)CO2compressionandtransport(viapipelineorshipping);and3)CO2storageinasuitablegeologicalsite(e.g.salineaquifersanddepletedoilandgasreservoirs).
447. CCStechnologiesarecategorisedaccordingtotheclassofcaptureprocess(post-
combustion,pre-combustion,andoxy-combustion)andtypeofseparationtechnology(absorption,adsorption,membranes,cryogenicdistillation,gashydrates,andchemicallooping).445
443Otherissueslinkedtoongoinggasconsumptionandcarbonbudgets,butnotspecifictoSGP,suchasfugitiveemissionsfromthestorageandtransportationofgasandthefutureuseofthegasgrid,werealsonotconsideredintheCCCreportbutwillbeinfuturereports.444Bondetal.(2014),Life-cycleAssessmentofGreenhouseGasEmissionsfromUnconventionalGasinScotland,http://www.climatexchange.org.uk/files/2514/1803/8235/Life-cycle_Assessment_of_Greenhouse_Gas_Emissions_from_Unconventional_Gas_in_Scotland_Full_Report_Updated_8.Dec.14.pdf445Budinis,Krevor,MacDowelletal,2016.CanTechnologyunlock‘unburnable’carbon?London:SustainableGasInstitute.
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(Source:Budinis,Krevor,MacDowelletal,2016.CanTechnologyunlock‘unburnable’carbon?London:SustainableGasInstitute).
448. Post-combustioncaptureinvolvestheseparationofCO2fromafluestreamafterafossilfuel
hasbeencombusted.Pre-combustionCCSseparatesCO2fromahydrogen-richgascalledsyngaspriortocombustion.Thesyngasisobtainedbygasificationofafuel.Oxy-combustioncaptureischaracterisedbythecombustionofafossilfuelwithenrichedoxygenwhichgeneratesafluestreamwithoutimpurities,whereCO2canbeseparatedmoreeasilybycondensingthewatervapour.
449. CCScanalsobecombinedwithNegativeEmissionTechnologies(NETs)suchasreforestation,
afforestation,agriculturalsoilcarbonstorage,biocharandbioenergywithcarboncaptureandstorage(BECCS).BECCStechnologieswhichcombinebiomasswithCCScanbedeployedforprocessesinthebio-refiningsector,biofuelsector,powerandheatsector,andinindustrialprocessesforthecement,steelandpapersector.
450. ThetechnicalpotentialofNETshasbeenestimatedtobe120GtCO2until2050.Thiswould
representanextensionofthe2050carbonbudgetby11–13%fora50–80%probabilityofremainingbelowa2°Ctemperatureincrease.446AnotherhigherendprojectionofthefuturepotentialofBECCSseesnegativeGHGemissionsbeinggeneratedbyupto10.4GtCO2e/yrby2050.447
451. AkeyissueaboutCCSandBECCSistheextenttowhichitisviableandaffordable,andthe
speedatwhichitcanbedeployedinlightoftheshrinkingcarbonbudgetavailable.
452. TheInternationalEnergyAlliance(IEA)whichconsidersCCSakeyoptionformitigatingCO2emissions,highlightstheuncertaintyofitspaceofdeploymentandconcludesthatitseffect
446Caldecott,B.,etal.(2015).StrandedCarbonAssetsandNegativeEmissionsTechnologies.Availableonline:www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/research-programmes/stranded-assets/Stranded%20Carbon%20Assets%20and%20NETs%20-%2006.02.15.pdf447Koornneef,J.,etal.(2012).Globalpotentialforbiomassandcarbondioxidecapture,transportandstorageupto2050.InternationalJournalofGreenhouseGasControl,11,117–132.
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before2050islikelytobemodest.448AproposedIEAroadmaptoassistgovernmentsandindustrytointegrateCCSintotheiremissionsreductionstrategiessuggestsCCSbeingabletostoreatotalcumulativemassofapproximately120GtCO2between2015and2050.Thisisequivalenttoabout3.5GtCO2/yr(whichislessthan10%ofthecurrentannualamountofCO2eemissions).
453. QuestioningthevalidityofmanyprojectionsaboutthefutureofCCSandBECCSisimportant
giventhevastandpowerfulvestedinterestsinvolvedinmaintainingandprolongingtheroleoffossilfuelsinenergysystemsworldwide.
454. KeybarrierstotheuptakeupofCCSarecost,energypenalty,andlocationaswellascapacityofstoragesites.449Severalbarriersarenon-technical,including:
• Lackofmarketmechanism/incentive• FeweffectivemechanismstopenalisemajorCO2emittingsources• Inadequatelegalframeworkallowingtransportandstorage(bothinlandandoffshore)• Publicawarenessandperception.
455. Majorpotentialsupplychainconstraintsincludehydrogenturbinesforthecapturestep,
pipelinesforthetransportstep,geo-engineersanddrillingrigsforthestoragestepaswellasashortageofpetroleumengineersacrossthefullCCSchain.450PrivateinvestmentinCCSishamperedbyvariousrisksincludingtechnologyandconstructionissues,highup-frontcapitalcosts,infrastructurebarriers,andoperatingcosts(alsoaffectedbyafuelpricerisk).
456. AccordingtotheGlobalCCSInstitute,onemajorbarriertoCCSinthepowerindustryisthe
highcapitalcostand‘energypenalty’comparedtotraditionalfossilfuelfiredgenerators.Atthemoment,aplantwithCCSismoreexpensive(intermsofcapitalandoperatingcosts)thanthesameplantwithoutCCS.
457. ReportsofthecostofCCSshowagreatvariability,withalackofdataforspecificprocesses
orcapturetechnologies.ThecapturestepisthemostexpensivestepoftheCCSchain,withacostofcarbonequivalentto20–110$2015/tCO2.Transportcostrangesbetween1.3and15.1$2015/tCO2/250km,dependingonthelocationandlengthofthepipeline.Storagecostdependsonthetypeofstoragesiteandthepossiblereuseofexistingfacilitiesandisbetween1.6and31.4$2015/tCO2.451
448IEA(2013).TechnologyRoadmap:CarbonCaptureandStorage2013.Online.Availableonline:www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/technology-roadmap-carbon-captureand-storage-2013.html449GlobalCCSInstitute(2014).Summaryreport.http://hub.globalccsinstitute.com/sites/default/files/publications/180928/global-statusccs-2014-summary.pdf450IEAGHG(2012).BarrierstoimplementationofCCS:capacityconstraints,ReportIEAGHG2012/09.451Budinis,Krevor,MacDowelletal,2016.CanTechnologyunlock‘unburnable’carbon?London:SustainableGasInstitute
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458. BudinisetalhypothesisethattheconstraintonCCSisnotcostrelatedorsupplychainrelated(particularlyinlateryears)butthatCCSisnotadequatelyeffectiveinreducingresidualemissionstomakeitafavourableoptioninclimatechangemitigationscenarios.Developershavesofarfocussedon85–90%capturerateswhichwouldnotbesufficientwithtighterglobalemissionlimits.However,highercaptureratesfrom2050onwards(evengreaterthan95%)mayleadtonaturalgasbecomingviableagainasasafefossilfuel.
459. Factorsdeterminingthefeasibilityoflocationandcapacityofstoragesitesinclude:a)
cumulativecapacityofcarbonstorage;b)ratesofreleaseanduptake;c)connectionfromsourcetostore;andd)climateimpactofstoragetimescale.
460. Globalgeo-storagecapacityisbelievedtobelargerthantheCO2embodiedinpresent-day
fossilfuelreserves.452However,reservoirpressurisationinsalineaquiferswilllimittheaccessibleCO2geo-storagecapacityintheabsenceofpressuremanagementstrategies.Theexactfractionofavailablespacehascomplexdependenciesonreservoir,rock,andfluidproperties.
461. Itisestimated1,000Gtofstoragecapacityisavailableinoilandgas(hydrocarbon)
reservoirsalonewhichwouldmeanlittleinthewayofstoragecapacitylimitsaffectingthefirstgenerationofcommercialCCSdeploymentinscenariosinvolvinglessthan500GtofCO2.
462. AstudyofsourcesandsinksshowsthatCCSwillnotbeconstrainedbylocalavailabilityof
storageresourcesinNorthAmerica,EuropeandBrazil.Outsidetheseareas,storageavailabilityisuncertain,althoughtheglobaldistributionofsedimentarybasinsissuchthatitispossiblethattherewillbefewlocationswherelocalstorageavailabilitywillbealimitingfactor.453
463. TechnologyReadinessLevels(TRLs)isametricusedtoassessthestageofdevelopmentof
newtechnologies.TRLsrangefrom1to9,whereTRL1means“basicprinciplesobservedandreported”andTRL9means“actualsystemflightproventhroughsuccessfulmissionoperations”.Accordingtoonestudy,post-combustioncaptureprocessesliebetweenTRL1andTRL5(duetotheearlystagesoftechnologydevelopmentforthiscaptureprocess);pre-combustioncaptureprocessesare“likely(tobe)decadesawayfromcommercialreality”;andoxy-combustionprocessesare“attheearlystagesofdevelopment”,withoutaclearpossibilitytounderstanditsfuturedevelopment.454
464. Whilepost-combustionandpre-combustioncapturetechnologiesarewidelyused,atthe
momentthereisonlyonefull-scaleinstallationofacoal-powerplant,theBoundaryDamCarbonCaptureProject.455AccordingtotheGlobalCCSInstitute,therearecurrently55large-scaleCCS
452IEAGHG(2016).Cancarboncaptureandstorageunlock‘unburnablecarbon’?,ReportIEAGHG2016/05.453KoelblBS,etal,2014.UncertaintyinCarbonCaptureandStorage(CCS)deploymentprojections:across-modelcomparisonexercise.ClimaticChange,123,461–476.454RubinESetal,2012.Theoutlookforimprovedcarboncapturetechnology.ProgressinEnergyandCombustionScience,38,630–671.455Budinis,Krevor,MacDowelletal,2016.CanTechnologyunlock‘unburnable’carbon?London:SustainableGasInstitute
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projectsworldwideineither‘identify’,‘evaluate’,‘define’,‘execute’or‘operate’stage.However,thetotalnumberhasreducedfrom75(2012)to65(2013)to55currently(2014).456
465. PolicyoptionstoincreasethedeploymentofCCSinclude:carbontradingortaxation;
targetedinvestmentsupport;feed-inschemeswhichguaranteeafixedfee;aguaranteedcarbonpriceforCCS;andminimumstandards,suchasaCCSobligationfornewinstallations.
466. IntheUK,governmentencouragementofCCShaswaned.In2007,thegovernment
launchedacompetitionfordemonstratingpost-combustioncaptureofCO2onacoal-firedpowerplant.In2010,thecompetitionwasopenedtogasandin2013,twobidderswereannounced:theWhiteRoseproject(acoal-firedpowerplant)andthePeterheadproject(afull-scalegasCCSproject).However,inNovember2015,the£1billionring-fencedcapitalbudgetfortheCCSCompetitionwaswithdrawnbythegovernment.
467. AlthoughCCSappearsimportantinunderpinninganyroleforfossilfuelsinthefuture,CCS
hasnotbeenadoptedtoagreatextent.Forsomepeople,BECCSandreforestationareattractiveoptionsforcreatingnegativeemissions.457However,EstimationsofNETspotentialuntil2100areaffectedbygreatuncertainties,especiallywithregardtotheavailabilityandaccessibilityofgeologicalstorage,andarethereforedifficulttoestimate.Theyalmostcertainlydonotofferaviablealternativetomitigationinthecomingdecades.458
RenewableEnergy
468. FuturescenariosoutlinedbytheCCCincludesomecontinuedroleforfossilfuelinthemediumtolongtermfuture.ButthisisheavilydependentonCCSandnegativeemissionstechnologies(NETs).Thescenariosalsohighlightthecentralimportanceofrenewableenergy,andnuclearpower.459460
469. ThenotespresentedheredonotcoverthesubjectofnuclearenergywhichproducesfewerGHGemissionsthanfossilfuels,butwhichcarriesrisksintermsofradioactivewaste,accidentsandtheproliferationofnuclearweapons.TheexorbitantcostsassociatedwithHinckleyCalsopointtonuclearenergypresentingconsiderableeconomicandfiscalthreatstosociety.
470. ThecontributionofREtothetotalenergymixintheUKisgrowing.TheUKhasincreaseditsgenerationfromrenewablesfrom25TWhin2010to73TWhin2015.461Currentlyrenewablessupplyaround20-25%ofUKelectricityandDECCestimatesthattheywillsupplymorethan40%
456GlobalCCSInstitute(2014).Summaryreport.http://hub.globalccsinstitute.com/sites/default/files/publications/180928/global-statusccs-2014-summary.pdf457vanVuurenD,etal,2013.TheroleofnegativeCO2emissionsforreaching2°C-insightsfromintegratedassessmentmodelling.ClimaticChange,118,15–27.458McLarenD,2012.Acomparativeglobalassessmentofpotentialnegativeemissionstechnologies.ProcessSafetyandEnvironmentalProtection,90,489–500.459InternationalEnergyAgency.Energytechnologyperspectives2012.IEA,Paris;2012460InternationalEnergyAgency.Coalmedium-termmarketreport2012.IEA,Paris;2012461DECC,2015.Updatedenergyandemissionsprojections.AnnexJ
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by2030.462IntheNationalGrid’s2015projectionoftheUK’sFutureEnergyScenarios,REsupplies11-30%oftheannualpowerdemandby2030.463[Note:MorerecentFESsarenowavailable.]
471. However,groupssuchasFriendsoftheEarthbelievethatanelectricitymixcomprisingover75%renewablesby2030wouldbeafeasibleandmoreappropriatetarget.
367. Theindustry-fundedTaskForceonShaleGashasarguedthatweshouldembrace“alongtermevolutionaryapproach”towardsrenewableenergy,ratherthan“ashorttermrevolution”.Thereasonstheygiveforthisslowapproachinclude:a)inadequategridinfrastructureforabsorbingwind,tidalandwaveenergy;b)publicdisapprovalofbiggeronshoretransmissionpylons;c)investorshavinglimitedfunds;d)renewableenergybeingeconomicallyunviable;e)theintermittencyofRE;f)REtechnologybeingunder-developedandsociallyunacceptable.
472. However,accordingtotheCCC,itwillbepossible“toensuresecurityofsupplyinadecarbonisedsystemwithhighlevelsofintermittentandinflexiblegeneration”.464Partsofthesolutionincludeachievinggreaterinter-connectiontosystemsbeyondtheUK;makingiteasierforenergydemandtorespondmoreeffectivelyandefficientlytoshort-termpricesignals;increasingthecapacityforelectricitystorage;andensuringthatback-upcapacityisflexibleenoughtoincreasegenerationwithouthavingtorunpart-loaded.
473. TwostudiesusedbytheCCCindicatethattheUKcouldgenerateover80%ofelectricitydemandfromrenewableswithoutjeopardisingsecurityofsupply,throughtheuseofstorage,interconnectorsanddemandsidemanagement.465466
474. Renewablesareprovidingelectricityatincreasinglylowercosts.Recentagreedcontractsforfuturepower(ContractsforDifference)signedbyonshorewindandsolar(£79/MWhfor15years),andoffshorewind(£115/MWhfor15years)arealreadycheaperthannewnuclear(£92.50/MWhfor35years).467Offshorewind’scostisalsofallingfast;andprojectedtocostlessthan£100/MWhby2020.468TheCCCsayonshorewindandlarge-scalesolarwillbecheaperthannewgaswhichpaysitspollutioncostsbefore2025.469Furthermore,sincewindandsolarproduceelectricityatzeromarginalcost,theyhavethepotentialtolowerelectricityprices.470
462DECC,2015.Updatedenergyandemissionsprojections.AnnexJ463NationalGrid.(2015).UKFutureEnergyScenarios;UKGasandElectricityTransmission.Availableat:http://investors.nationalgrid.com/~/media/Files/N/National-Grid-IR/reports/future-energy-scenarios-2015.pdf464CCC,2015.Powersectorscenariosforthefifthcarbonbudget465GarradHassan,2011.UKgenerationanddemandscenariosfor2030.March.466Poyry,2011.Analysingtechnicalconstraintstorenewablegenerationto2050.467CCC,2015.PowerSectorScenariosforthe5thCarbonBudget.Box4.1468Catapult,2015.Costofwindenergyfallssharply.Feb26th469CCC,2015.PowerSectorScenariosforthe5thCarbonBudget.egFigure2470GoodEnergy,2015.Windandsolarreducingconsumerbills.
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475. TheCCCnotesthattherateandextentofchangeneededtostaywithinourcarbonbudgetindicatesaneedformuchgreatereffortstoreduceourconsumptionofenergyaswellasrapidlyexpandingonthedeliveryofrenewableenergy.
476. Thefeasibilityofmovingrapidlytowardsadecarbonisedenergysystemhasbeen
substantiatedbyotherstudies.TwostudiesforthestatesofNewYork471andCalifornia472havedemonstratedthepossibilityofmovingtowardsaneconomydriventotallybyREsources(largelysolarandwind)inacost-effectivewayusingtechnologiesthatarecommerciallyavailabletodaywithinthenext15-35years.
Overallenergyconsumptionandenergyefficiency477. Giventhecontextofclimatechange,consuminglessenergymaybebetterthanseekingnew
sourcesoffossilfuels.
478. Reducedlevelsofenergyconsumptionmaybeachievedinpartthroughimprovementsinenergy,althoughthismaynotbethecaseifmoney‘saved’throughenergyefficiencyisthenspentonfurtherenergyservices.Thisisaphenomenonreferredtoas“Jevons’paradox””orthe‘reboundeffect.’
479. Nonetheless,thereareclearlyopportunitiesforreducingbothoverallenergyconsumption
andimprovingefficiency.
480. Mostenergyservicesarehighlyinefficient.Forexample,carsintheUKstreethaveemissionsofover160gCO2/kmonaverage,eventhoughthereareover200modelvariantsofstandard-enginecars(i.e.notelectricorhybrid)withemissionsofunder100gCO2/kmbeingsoldatlittletonopricepremium.TelevisionsandITequipmenthavehugevariationsinenergyconsumptionforessentiallythesamelevelofservice.AnAratedrefrigeratorconsumesintheregionof80%moreenergythananA+++alternative;againatverylittlepricepenalty.AvastamountoftheUKhousingstockhasanEnergyPerformanceCertificateratingofDorbelow.
481. AGreenAlliancereportthatdescribesthefailureoftheUKtoharnessthepotentialfor
savingelectricityproposesastrategytocreateincentivesforcompaniestobenefitfromenergyefficiencymeasuresbymakingtwochangestotheelectricitymarket:a)a‘negawattsfeed-intariff’paidonthebasisofavoidedenergyconsumption,withrecipientscompetinginanauctiontodeliverenergysavingsinhomesandbusinessesatlowestcost;andb)openingthecapacitymarkettocompetitionfromdemand-sideresponseandenergydemandreductiononanequalbasiswithelectricitygeneration.473
471JacobsonMZ,HowarthRW,DelucchiMA,etal.ExaminingthefeasibilityofconvertingNewYorkState’sall-purposeenergyinfrastructuretooneusingwind,water,andsunlight.EnergyPolicy.2013;57:585–601472JacobsonMZ,DelucchMA,IngraffeaAR,etal.AroadmapforrepoweringCaliforniaforallpurposeswithwind,water,andsunlight.Energy.2014;73:875–889.473GreenAlliance,2015.Gettingmorefromless
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Energysecurity
477. OneoftheimportantargumentsinfavourofSGPisthatitwillimprovetheUK’senergysecurity.Thisisacomplextopicwhichisdealwithhereinincompletelyandbriefly,andwillbeexpandedinduecourse.
478. Energysecuritytypicallyhastwodimensions:havingenoughenergytomeetneedanddemand;andavoidingbeingoverly-reliantonothercountriesforenergy.
479. Since1999,therehasbeenasharpriseinfossilfuelimportsintheUK.Thehighestlevelofimportedenergysince1974wasreportedin2013duetoanongoingdeclineindomesticoilandgasproduction.NearlyhalfoftheUK’snetenergysupplycamefromimports.474
480. Currently,about46%oftheUK’snaturalgascomesfromtheNorthSea.TheremainderisimportedfromNorway(about30%),theNetherlands(about8%)andBelgium(about4%).Theremaining20%ofimportedgasisliquefiednaturalgas(LNG),mainlyfromQatar.475476
481. Accordingtoestimatesofrecoverableshalegasreserves,SGPcouldhelpeliminatetheUK’s
relianceongasimports.However,thiswouldrequirealargeonshoregasindustry:BloombergNewEnergyFinanceestimatedin2013thateliminatingimportswouldrequirethedrillingofaround10,000wellsovera15-yearperiod,basedonoptimisticassumptionsforflowrates.Alowerflowratemightmeanupto20,000wells,draininganareatwicethesizeofLancashire.477
482. Oneaspectof‘energysecurity’istheaffordabilityofenergy.ThehopethatSGPintheUK
willreducegasprices,asitdidintheUS,hasbeenshowntobeunlikelybecauseoftheintegratednatureofthegasmarketinEurope.However,adomesticgasindustrycouldreducedependenceonimports(ifsufficientquantitiesofgascanbeproduced)andimpactpositivelyonnationalbalanceofpaymentsissues.
Theeconomicsoftheenergysectormoregenerally483. Theeconomicsoftheenergysectorisanimportantdimensionofanydebateaboutthe
energymixofthefuture,hereintheUKandelsewhere.
474DepartmentofEnergyandClimateChange.(2014c).UKEnergyinBrief2014.[Online]Availableat:https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/350941/UK_Energy_in_Brief_2014_revised.pdf475DepartmentofEnergyandClimateChange.(2014c).UKEnergyinBrief2014.[Online]Availableat:https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/350941/UK_Energy_in_Brief_2014_revised.pdf476DepartmentofEnergyandClimateChange.(2014d).UKEnergyStatistics.[Online]Availableat:https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/296183/pn_march_14.pdf477BloombergNewEnergyFinance,2013.UKshalegasno“getoutofjailfreecard”.Feb21st
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484. Crucially,thefossilfuelindustryisheavilysubsidised.478AccordingtotheIMF,pre-taxsubsidiestothefossilfuelsectorhavedeclinedfromabout0.7%ofglobalGDPin2011toabout0.4%in2015.Thisstillamountstoalargesubsidyofabout333billion.Theestimatedpost-taxsubsidytofossilfuelsismuchlargerandwascalculatedtobeabout6.5%ofglobalGDPin2015($5.3trillion).Aboutthree-quartersofthepost-tax-subsidyarefromtheexternalisationofthecostsofairpollutionandaquarterisfromtheexternalisationofthecostsofglobalwarming.479
485. Forpetroleum,totalsubsidieswerebrokendownasfollows:externalisedcostsofcongestion,accidentsandroaddamage(39%);pre-taxsubsidies(17%);globalwarming(13%),airpollution(18%),andforegoneconsumptiontaxrevenue(14%).Fornaturalgas,totalsubsidieswerebrokendownasfollows:globalwarming(53%),pre-taxsubsidies(26%),andforgoneconsumptiontaxrevenue(10%).480
486. Energysubsidiesforthefossilfuelsectorcurrentlydamagetheenvironment;causeprematuredeaththroughlocalairpollution;exacerbatecongestionandotheradversesideeffectsofvehicleuse;increaseGHGconcentrations;imposelargefiscalcostsontaxpayers;discourageinvestmentsinenergyefficiency,renewables,andmoreefficientenergyinfrastructure;andincreasethevulnerabilityofcountriestovolatileinternationalenergyprices.
487. AccordingtotheIMF,theremovalofpost-taxenergysubsidiescouldreducepremature
deathsfromlocalairpollutionbymorethan50%andgenerateasubstantialfiscaldividendingovernmentrevenues,estimatedat$2.9trillion(3.6%ofglobalGDP)in2015.481
488. TheSternReviewcalledthemarketexternalityofGHGemissionsintheglobaleconomy“the
greatestandwidest-rangingmarketfailureeverseen”.482Inaddition,itdescribeshowitwouldbecheapertopreventGHGemissionsthantomanagetheeffectsofglobalwarming.
489. Anotheraspectofmarketfailureintheenergysectoristhelackoflarge-scale‘positiveinvestment’inacleanenergysystem.
490. Fornewtechnologiesintheearlierstages,concertedR&Deffortsarerequired.483SucheffortsmaybeanalogoustotheManhattanProjectfornucleartechnology,theApolloProgramforspaceflight,ortheMarshallPlanforthepost-warreconstructionofEurope.
478Victor,D.Thepoliticsoffossil-fuelsubsidies:globalsubsidiesinitiative&theinternationalinstituteforsustainabledevelopment.GlobalSubsidiesInitiative,InternationalInstituteforSustainableDevelopment,Geneva;2009479CoadyD,ParryI,SearsLandShangB,2015.HowLargeAreGlobalEnergySubsidies?WashingtonDC:IMF.480CoadyD,ParryI,SearsLandShangB,2015.HowLargeAreGlobalEnergySubsidies?WashingtonDC:IMF.481CoadyD,ParryI,SearsLandShangB,2015.HowLargeAreGlobalEnergySubsidies?WashingtonDC:IMF.482Stern,N.SternReviewontheeconomicsofclimatechange.HMTreasury,London;2006483Mazzucato,M.Theentrepreneurialstate:debunkingpublicvsprivatesectormyths.AnthemPress,London;2013
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491. Manyclimateadaptationmeasuresthatrequirecapital-intensiveinvestmentsandwhichhaveuncertainprospectsfordirectandimmediatereturnsalsorequirepublicfinancebecauseprivatefinancewillnotbeinterested.484
492. TheIEAestimatedthattohavean80%chanceofremainingona2°Cstabilisationpathway,
additionalcumulativeinvestmentof$36trillionisrequiredby2050,roughly$1trillionperyear(intheorderof1%GDPundermoderategrowthassumptions),withlow-carbontechnologiesandenergyefficiencyaccountingforaround90%ofenergysysteminvestmentby2035(currently,thisvalueisaround23%).485Anotherestimatehassuggestedalowervalueof$270billionperyear.486
493. In2013,only0·1%ofinstitutionalinvestorassets(excludingsovereignwealthfunds)werein
low-carbonenergyinfrastructureprojects($75billion).487
494. Therearemanypolicyoptionsavailableforcorrectingmarketfailuresintheenergysector.
Taxesonenergyproducts(suchastransportfuels)canappliedtoshapethepatternofenergydemandsothatitisalignedtocarbonbudgets.CorrectivetaxationthatinternalisesCO2emissions,airpollution,andtransport-relatedexternalities(suchascongestionandaccidentalinjury)arisingfromfossilfuelcouldalsoraiseadditionalrevenuesof2·6%GDPglobally,whilstsimultaneouslyreducingCO2emissionsby23%andpollution-relatedmortalityby63%.488
495. Carbonpricingcanalsobetterinternalisethecostsofsocialandenvironmentaldamageoffossilfuelsandhelpestablishthemarketsignalsrequiredtodisincentivisecontinuedfossilfueluse.
496. Byincreasingtheburdenoftaxationonenvironmentallydamagingactivitiesandreducingit
ondesiredinputs,suchaslabour,anincreaseinenergypricescouldinprinciplebeneutralisedfromamacroeconomicperspective.Althoughfossil-fuelsubsidiesandthepresenceofexternalitiestenddisproportionatelytobenefitthewealthiestinsociety(inbothnationalandinternationalcontexts),theintroductionofcarbonpricingandtheremovaloffossilfuelsubsidiesmayberegressive,asthepoorestinsocietyspendagreaterproportionoftheirdisposableincomeonenergy.Additionalfiscalinterventionswillthereforeberequiredtoprotectlow-incomeorvulnerablehouseholds.
484See,forexample:MarianaMazzucato,2013.TheEntrepreneurialState:debunkingpublicvs.privatesectormyths.London:AnthemPress.485InternationalEnergyAgency.Worldenergyoutlook.IEA,Paris;2012486TheNewClimateEconomy.Bettergrowth,betterclimate.TheGlobalCommissionontheEconomyandClimate,NewYork;2014487Kaminker,C,Kawanishi,O,Stewart,F,Caldecott,B,andHowarth,N.Institutionalinvestorsandgreeninfrastructureinvestments:selectedcasestudies.OrganizationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment,Paris;2013488Parry,IWH,Heine,D,andLis,E.Gettingthepricesright:fromprincipletopractice.InternationalMonetaryFund,Washington,DC;2014
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497. Additionally,feed-intariffs(FiTs),usedintheelectricitysectortoprovideaguaranteedrateofreturntolow-carbongenerators,havebeenshowntobeaneffectivepolicyinstrumentthathashelpedinstallalargeproportionofexistingglobalrenewablepowercapacity.
498. Otherinterventionstocorrectmarketfailureintheenergysectorincludedemand-sideregulationsuchasmandatoryenergyefficiencystandardsandsupply-sideprohibitionsuchastheprohibitionofunabatedcoalburning.ExamplesoftheformerincludeacaponCO2emissionsfrompassengercarsperkilometredriven,orontheannualenergyconsumptionofanewbuildingperunitoffloorarea.Otherexamplesofthelatterincludetechnologystandardscanalsobeemployedtoproscribetheuseofcertaincomponentsinproducts,orpreventthesaleoftheleastefficientmodelsofaproducttype.
499. Theglobalpictureofheavysubsidisationoffossilfuelandunder-investmentincleanenergy
isapparentintheUK.Nationalpre-taxsubsidiestofossilfuelproductionhavebeenestimatedatanannualaverageof$9billionin2013and2014.489Inthe2015Budget,ChancellorGeorgeOsborneawardedafurther£1.3bintaxcutstotheoilindustry.490ThismakestheUKoneofthefewG20countriesthatisincreasingitsfossilfuelsubsidies.491
500. Atthesametime,theUKiscuttingbackonincentivesforprivateinvestmentinrenewable
energyinvestments,whilstimplementingtaxreformsthatwouldmakerenewableenergygeneratorspaymoretax.492Asnotedearlier,thegovernmentlargelyremovedsupportfromsolarpowerin2015(causingthelossofupto18,700jobs).493
501. Thelargesubsidisationoffossilfuelcontinuesdespitethegovernmentagreeingwiththe
IPCCandotherinternationalbodiesthattheremovalofsubsidiesfromthefossilfuelindustryisimportant.Atthe2014climatesummitinNewYork,DavidCameronhimselfdescribedfossilfuelsubsidiesas“economicallyandenvironmentallyperverse",asthey“distortfreemarketsandripofftaxpayers”.494
502. Atthesametime,oilcompaniesintheUKNorthSeathathavemadevastprofits(33%rate
ofreturn)from2008and2014havepaidrelativelylittleinthewayoftax.AccordingtoPlatform,489BastE,DoukasA,PickardS,vanderBurgLandWhitleyS,2015.Emptypromises:G20subsidiestooil,gasandcoalproduction.London:OverseasDevelopmentInstituteandandOilChangeInternational.490Seehere:http://platformlondon.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/NorthSea_Oil_Tax_Facts.pdf491See,forexample,here:
• https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/nov/12/uk-breaks-pledge-to-become-only-g7-country-increase-fossil-fuel-subsidies
• http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/10189932/George-Osborne-pledges-most-generous-tax-regime-for-shale-gas.html
• http://www.neweconomics.org/blog/entry/the-looking-glass-world-of-fossil-fuel-subsidies492Seehere:http://www.ey.com/Publication/vwLUAssets/EY-RECAI-47-May-2016/$FILE/EY-RECAI-47-May-2016.pdf493Calculationsshowthatindustrieslikewind,waveandtidalandcouldemploy40,000moreNorthSeaworkersthantheexistingfossileconomy.494Seehere:http://blueandgreentomorrow.com/2014/09/24/un-climate-summit-cameron-calls-for-ending-fossil-fuel-subsidies-and-a-strong-climate-deal-in-paris/
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theUKtakesalowershareofrevenuefromitsoilresourcesthanmostothercountries.Onaverage,governmentsreceive72%ofnetrevenuefromoilproduction,comparedto50%frommostUKfields.Norway,operatinginthesamefieldsintheNorthSea,takes78%.495
T.BroaderDevelopmentPolicyandCo-BenefitsofCCMitigation
503. Transformingtheglobaleconomywithintherequiredtimescaledemandsunprecedentedactioninbothindustrialisedanddevelopingcountries.AccordingtotheLancet-UCLCommission,industrialisedcountriesneedtoembarkimmediatelyonCO2reductionprogrammes“withahighlevelofambition”.Putanotherway,transitiontoalow-carbonenergyinfrastructureimpliesaradicaltransformationofnotjusttheenergysector,butthebehavioursandconsumptionpatternsthatfeedoffourburningoffossilfuel.
504. TheLancet-UCLCommissiononClimateChangeandHealthalsonotedthattransitiontoa
low-carboninfrastructure“requireschallengingthedeeplyentrencheduseoffossilfuels”.Decarbonisationandreducingenergydemandisnotasimplechallengeofcleaninguppollutantsorinstallingnewequipment:itrequiressystemictransformationsofenergyinfrastructuresandassociatedsystems.
505. Acollectivepolitical,policyandscientificfailureisexemplifiedbytherecentexpansionof
coaluseacrosstheworldthatreversedtheglobalpatternthroughmostofthe20thcenturyofshiftingtowardslesscarbonintensiveandlesspollutingfossilfuels.
506. Thefactthatglobalemissionshaverisenoverthepastdecadedemonstratesaremarkable
inabilitytorespondeffectivelyandcollectivelytothethreatofclimatechange.Italsodemonstratesthatmostofourinstitutionsarebuiltaroundnarrow,short-termhorizons,andvestedinterests;andthatwearelockedintoamodelofeconomicgrowththatiscentredaroundmaterialconsumptionandtiedtofossilfuel.496
507. Otherreasonswhyeffectiveactionhasbeenpreventedincludethefactthatclimatescience
iscomplexandunavoidablyinvolvesadegreeofuncertaintywhichcreatesroomforequivocationandmisunderstanding,497andthatclimatechangeispsychologicallydistantintemporal,socialandgeographictermsformanypeoplewhichdampensconcernandwillingnesstoact.498
495Seehere:http://platformlondon.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/NorthSea_Oil_Tax_Facts.pdf496Unruh,GC.Understandingcarbonlock-in.EnergyPol.2000;28:817–830497Hulme,M.Whywedisagreeaboutclimatechange:understandingcontroversy,inactionandopportunity.CambridgeUniversityPress,Cambridge;2009498Spence,A,Poortinga,W,andPidgeon,N.Thepsychologicaldistanceofclimatechange.RiskAnal.2012;32:957–972
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508. Finally,asnotedbytheLancet-UCLCommission,“theactivepromotionofmisinformation,motivatedbyeitherideologyorvestedeconomicinterests”hashinderedeffectiveaction.
509. Inthepasttwodecades,muchoftheboldandinnovativepolicy-makingtoaddressclimate
changehavebeendrivenatthelevelofcities,whichhavecreatedtheplatformfornewadvocacycoalitionsandevenfornewcross-borderpara-diplomaticlinks(e.g.throughLocalGovernmentsforSustainability,theWorldMayorsCouncilonClimateChangeandtheClimateLeadershipGroup).499500,501502Theseexperiencespointtotheemergingimportanceofsub-nationalleadersinglobalenvironmentalgovernance.503
510. Asawealthynationwithaskilledworkforceandaworld-leadingrenewableenergyresourcebase,choosingtodevelopanewfossilfuelindustrywouldnotonlythreatentobreakournationaltargetstoreduceGHGemissions,butalsodamagetheUK’sinternationalreputationandunderminethedelicatenegotiationsbeingundertakentostrengtheninternationalresolvetopreventrunawayglobalwarmingandclimatecollapse.
511. Althoughtheprimaryreasonfordecarbonisingofourenergysystemistomitigateclimatechange,variouspositivesocial,ecologicalandhealthdividendscouldalsoarise.
512. Severallinksbetweenclimatemitigationpracticesandtechnologiesandimprovedhealthandwellbeinghavebeenestablished.504505Fromaglobalperspective,cropyieldshavemuchtogainfromthemitigationofshortlivedclimatepollutantssuchasmethane,blackcarbon,hydrofluorocarbons,andtroposphericozone.506
513. ThehealthbenefitsofreducedairpollutionintheEUalone(tomitigateclimatechange)havebeenvaluedat€38billionayearby2050.507AnotherestimatesuggeststhatadoublingofREusefrom2010to2030couldavoidupto$230billionofexternalhealthcostsannuallyby
499Roman,M.Governingfromthemiddle:theC40CitiesLeadershipGroup.CorpGov.2010;10:73–84500Bulkeley,H.Betsill.M.Citiesandclimatechange:urbansustainabilityandglobalenvironmentalgovernance.Routledge,NewYork;2003501Boutiligier,S.Cities,networks,andglobalenvironmentalgovernance.Routledge,London;2013502Curtis,S.GlobalCitiesandtheTransformationoftheInternationalSystem.RevIntStud.2011;37:1923–1947503Gordon,DJ.Betweenlocalinnovationandglobalimpact:cities,networks,andthegovernanceofclimatechange.CanForeignPolJ.2013;19:288–307504Proust,K,Newell,B,,Hetal.Humanhealthandclimatechange:leveragepointsforadaptationinurbanenvironments.IntJEnvironResPublicHealth.2012;9:2134–2158505Shaw,MR,Overpeck,JT,andMidgley,GF.Cross-chapterboxonecosystembasedapproachestoadaptation—emergingopportunities.in:CBField,VRBarros,DJDokken,(Eds.)Climatechange2014:impacts,adaptation,andvulnerability.PartA:globalandsectoralaspectscontributionofWorkingGroupIItotheFifthAssessmentReportoftheIntergovernmentalPanelofClimateChange.CambridgeUniversityPress,Cambridge,UKandNewYork,NY,USA;2014:101–103506Scovronick,N,Adair-Rohani,H,Borgford-Parnell,Netal.Reducingglobalhealthrisksthroughmitigationofshort-livedclimatepollutants:scopingreportforpolicymakers.WorldHealthOrganizationandClimateandCleanAirCoalition,Geneva;2015507EuropeanCommission.CommunicationfromtheCommissiontotheEuropeanParliament,theCouncil,theEuropeanEconomicandSocialCommitteeandtheCommitteeoftheRegions:aroadmapformovingtoacompetitivelowcarboneconomyin2050.EuropeanCommission,Brussels;2011
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2030globally.508Similarly,ithasbeenestimatedthatthehealthbenefitsofreducingmethaneemissionsinindustrialisednationswouldexceedtheabatementcostsevenundertheleastaggressivemitigationscenario.509
514. Clearly,therearepotentialrisksfromdecarbonisationandpoliciesandtechnologiesaimedatreducingenergyconsumptionsuchasreducedaccesstoenergyandunintendedconsequencescausedbypoorlydesignedhomeinsulationimprovements.510
515. Policiesthatencourageactivetravel(eg,walkingandcycling)wouldproducesignificantreductionsincardiovasculardisease,dementia,obesity,diabetes,severalcancers,andinthedurationandseverityofdepressiveepisodes.511512OnestudyestimatesthatincreasedlevelsofactivetravelcoupledwithincreasedfuelefficiencyintheUK'surbanareascouldleadtoacumulativenetsavingtopublicfundsofmorethan£15billionby2030,whilstachievingGHGreductionsofover15%intheprivatetransportsector.513
516. IntheUK,retrofitsaimedatimprovingtheenergyperformanceofhousescouldoffersubstantialhealthbenefitprovidedadequateventilationtocontrolindoorpollutantsisinstalled.Increasedenergyefficiencywillalsohelpreducefuelpoverty,limitexcesswintermortalityrates,andreducerespiratoryillnessinchildren.514NicolandcolleaguesestimatedthatimprovedhousinginEnglandalonecouldsavetheNHSmorethan€700millionperyearintreatmentavoidance.515
517. AccordingtoCopenhagenEconomics,improvementsinhousingenergyefficiencyinEuropewouldproducebothenergyandhealthcaresavings,andreducepublicsubsidiesforenergyconsumptionby€9–12billionperyear.516AmodellingstudybyHamiltonetal.assessesthepotentialhealthbenefitsof5.3mloftinsulations,6.5msolidwallinsulations,5.7mcavitywall
508InternationalRenewableEnergyAgency.REmap2030:arenewableenergyroadmap.IRENA,AbuDhabi;2014509West,J,Fiore,A,andHorowitz,L.Scenariosofmethaneemissionreductionsto2030:abatementcostsandco-benefitstoozoneairqualityandhumanmortality.ClimChange.2012;114:441–461510Davies,MandOreszczyn,T.Theunintendedconsequencesofdecarbonisingthebuiltenvironment:aUKcasestudy.EnergyBuild.2012;46:80–85511Woodcock,J,Edwards,P,Tonne,Cetal.Publichealthbenefitsofstrategiestoreducegreenhouse-gasemissions:urbanlandtransport.Lancet.2009;374:1930–1943512Patz,JA,Frumkin,H,Holloway,T,Vimont,DJ,andHaines,A.Climatechange:challengesandopportunitiesforglobalhealth.JAMA.2014;312:1565–1580513Jensen,HT,Keogh-Brown,MR,Smith,RDetal.Theimportanceofhealthco-benefitsinmacroeconomicassessmentsofUKgreenhousegasemissionreductionstrategies.ClimChange.2013;121:223–237514Liddell,CandMorris,C.Fuelpovertyandhumanhealth:Areviewofrecentevidence.EnergyPol.2010;38:2987–2997515Nicol,S,Roys,M,Davidson,M,Ormandy,D,andAmbrose,P.Quantifyingtheeconomiccostofunhealthyhousing—acasestudyfromEngland.in:MBraubach,DEJacobs,DOrmandy(Eds.)Environmentalburdenofdiseaseassociatedwithinadequatehousing:amethodguidetothequantificationofhealtheffectsofselectedhousingrisksintheWHOEuropeanRegion.WorldHealthOrganizationRegionalOfficeforEurope,Copenhagen;2011:197–208516CopenhagenEconomics.Multiplebenefitsofinvestinginenergyefficientrenovationofbuildings:impactonpublicfinances.RenovateEurope,Copenhagen;2012
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insulations,2.4mdouble-glazinginstallations,10.7mhigh-efficiencycondensingboilerinstallationsandseveralventilationsysteminstallations.517
518. Whileatransitiontoadecarbonisedenergyandeconomicsystemwouldaffectemploymentinfossilfuel-relatedandemission-intensiveindustries,low-carbontechnologyindustrieswould,overtime,expandandincreaseemployment.IRENAestimateanetglobalincreaseof900 000jobsincoreactivitiesalone(i.e.notincludingsupplychainactivities)ifthelevelofrenewableenergyinglobalfinalenergyconsumptiondoublesfrom18%in2010to36%ofby2030.518
517HamiltonIG,MilnerJ,ChalabiZ,etal.ThehealtheffectsofhomeenergyefficiencyinterventionsinEngland:amodellingstudy.BMJOpen2014;5(4). 518InternationalRenewableEnergyAgency.REmap2030:arenewableenergyroadmap.IRENA,AbuDhabi;2014
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Acknowledgements
ThesenoteswerecompiledbyDavidMcCoyandAliceMunroofMedact.
ThankstoPatrickSaunders(independentPublicHealthspecialist),DavePowell(NewEconomicsFoundation,JoHawkins(SheffieldUniversity),GrantAllen(UniversityofManchester)andMichaelBradshaw(UKEnergyResearchCouncil)formakinghelpfulcommentsandobservations.
Responsibilityforthemanuscript,includingerrorsandomissions,lieentirelywiththeprimaryauthors.