© 2011 bipac. material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of bipac. reprints...

53

Upload: stephon-denney

Post on 14-Dec-2015

218 views

Category:

Documents


1 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should
Page 2: © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should

© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.

/BIPAC

@BIPAC

@DavisMichaelR

Redistricting AndThe 2012 Election

Bernadette BuddeSenior Vice President, Political Analysis

Michael DavisVice President, Political Programs

July 13, 2011

Page 3: © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should

© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.

BAB’S PRINCIPLES• It never turns out exactly as the party operatives think• Ten years is a very long time (3 presidential elections)• This version feels less partisan than ‘70/’80/’90/2000• Incumbents serve in current districts (decide on your grassroots

strategy)• Incumbents run in new districts (decide on your PAC strategy)• Demographic reality outweighs lines• None of this makes the issues go away

Page 4: © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should

© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.

BAB’S TERMINOLOGY• Merged pairs

• Two incumbents running against each other• In primary: example, LA-3 Boustany (R) and Landry (R) – eliminates one seat for the

party regardless of primary winner• In general: example, IA-3 Boswell (D) and Latham (R) – eliminates one seat for the party

losing the general election

• Seats without incumbents where a freshman will be elected• Consequences of redistricting

Added seat: example, TX gains four seats Redistricted hole: example, “gaps” where an incumbent could have run but due to

district realignment decides not to run; usually occurs in states losing seats (such as IL) or not gaining seats (such as CA)

• Traditional open seats Incumbent lost in primary to a challenger Incumbent runs for another office: example IN-6 Pence (R) Incumbent not seeking reelection: example OK-2 Boren (D)

Page 5: © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should

© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.

BAB’S TERMINOLOGY (cont.)• Don’t make yourself crazy• If you don’t keep track yourself, find a source you feel is

reliable and stick with that source; every pundit will label and then tally in a slightly different way.

• In the end, there are only 435 districts. If your list of plus/minus doesn’t add up to 435, the list is wrong.

• We don’t know the partisan impact of redistricting until we know the outcome of all general elections

– Easiest way to get House to add back up to 435 is to count victories for one party as they occur

– Tabulate the number of seats gained or lost for one party with a baseline of where each party began going into election night

Page 6: © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should

© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.

Page 7: © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should

© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.

Page 8: © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should

© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.

Page 9: © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should

© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.

Page 10: © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should

© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.

Page 11: © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should

© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.

Hispanic Voters& Why The GOP Is In Trouble

Page 12: © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should

© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.

/BIPAC

@BIPAC

@DavisMichaelRU.S. POPULATION GROWTH, 2005-2010

2010 2005 # Growth % Growth

White

223,553,265 215,333,394 8,219,871 3.8%

Hispanic

50,477,594 41,870,703 8,606,891 20.6%

Black

38,929,319 34,962,569 3,966,750 11.3%

Asian

14,674,252 12,471,815 2,202,437 17.7%

Page 13: © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should

© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.

Page 14: © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should

© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.

/BIPAC

@BIPAC

@DavisMichaelR

HISPANIC % OF POPULATION,UNDER 18

RANK STATE% OF POP. UNDER 18

THAT IS HISPANIC1New Mexico 58.2%2California 51.2%3Texas 48.3%4Arizona 43.2%5Nevada 39.4%6Colorado 30.5%7Florida 27.6%8Illinois 23.1%9New York 22.5%

10New Jersey 22.3%

Page 15: © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should

© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.

Page 16: © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should

© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.

/BIPAC

@BIPAC

@DavisMichaelR

FOR GOP TO WIN WHITE HOUSE IN 2012, THE GOP NEEDS TO WIN THE

FOLLOWING STATES(ORDERED BY 2008 MAP,

OBAMA WIN %)

Page 17: © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should

© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.

Page 18: © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should

© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.

Page 19: © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should

© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.

Page 20: © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should

© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.

/BIPAC

@BIPAC

@DavisMichaelR

TEXAS GOES DEMOCRAT IN 2020

(ORDERED BY 2008 MAP,OBAMA WIN %)

Page 21: © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should

© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.

Page 22: © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should

© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.

Page 23: © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should

© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.

Page 24: © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should

© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.

Page 25: © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should

© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.

EXPECTED PARTISAN CHANGE-3 REP / +6 DEM (As of July 13, 2011)

STATE (REAPPORTIONMENT CHANGE) REP CHANGE DEM CHANGE

COMPLETED STATES

Arkansas - -Illinois (-1) -5 +4Indiana +1 -1Iowa (-1) - -1Louisiana (-1) -1 -Missouri (-1) - -1Nebraska - -Oklahoma - -

NOT

YET COMPLET

E

California -4 +4Georgia (+1) +2 -1Massachusetts (-1) - -1Michigan (-1) - -1Nevada (+1) - +1Texas (+4) +2 +2South Carolina (+1) +1 -Utah (+1) +1 -Washington (+1) - +1

TOO EARLY

Arizona (+1)Florida (+2)New Jersey (-1)New York (-2)Ohio (-2)Pennsylvania (-1)

Page 26: © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should

© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.

/BIPAC

@BIPAC

@DavisMichaelRREDISTRICTING TIMELINESTATE REDISTRICTING STATUS MAP DEADLINE + VRA

(60 DAYS)2011

LEGIS. SESSIONFILING

DEADLINEAlabama Submitted to DOJ VRA State Apr 6, 2012Alaska At Large District Apr 6, 2012Arizona Redistricting Commission None VRA State N/A May 30, 2012Arkansas Completed Mar 8, 2012California Redistricting Commission VRA Counties N/A Mar 9, 2012Colorado Courts Will Decide Apr 13, 2012Connecticut None Sine Die June 15, 2012Delaware At Large District July 10, 2012Florida None VRA Counties Sine Die May 4, 2012Georgia None Sine Die June 29, 2012Hawaii Redistricting Commission N/A June 5, 2012Idaho Redistricting Commission N/A Mar 9, 2012Illinois Completed Dec 5, 2011Indiana Completed Feb 24, 2012Iowa Completed Mar 16, 2012Kansas None Sine Die June 10, 2012Kentucky None Sine Die Jan 31, 2012Louisiana Completed DOJ Aug 17, 2012Maine Mar 31, 2012 Sine Die Mar 15, 2012Maryland None Sine Die Dec 5, 2011Massachusetts None In Session May 29, 2012Michigan Needs GOV Signature VRA Townships May 12, 2012Minnesota Courts Will Decide June 5, 2012Mississippi Dec 4, 2011 VRA State Sine Die Mar 1, 2012Missouri Completed Mar 27, 2012

Page 27: © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should

© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.

/BIPAC

@BIPAC

@DavisMichaelRREDISTRICTING TIMELINESTATE REDISTRICTING STATUS MAP DEADLINE + VRA

(60 DAYS)2011

LEGIS. SESSIONFILING

DEADLINEMontana At Large District Mar 12, 2012Nebraska Completed Mar 1, 2012Nevada Courts Will Decide Mar 16, 2012New Hampshire None VRA Townships Sine Die Jun 15, 2012New Jersey Redistricting Commission Jan 17, 2012 N/A Apr 10, 2012New Mexico None Sine Die Feb 14, 2012New York Nov 1, 2012 VRA Counties Jul 12, 2012North Carolina Nov 1, 2011 VRA Counties Sine Die Feb 1, 2012North Dakota At Large District Apr 13, 2012Ohio None In Session Dec 7, 2012Oklahoma Completed June 6, 2012Oregon Needs GOV Signature June 6, 2012Pennsylvania None In Session Feb 14, 2012Rhode Island None Sine Die June 27, 2012South Carolina None VRA State Sine Die Mar 30, 2012South Dakota At Large District Mar 27, 2012Tennessee None Sine Die Apr 5, 2012Texas Needs GOV Signature VRA State Jan 2, 2012Utah Mar 8, 2012 Sine Die Mar 16, 2012Vermont At Large District May 31, 2012Virginia Jan 1, 2012 VRA Counties Special Session Mar 29, 2012Washington Redistricting Commission Jan 1, 2012 N/A June 8, 2012West Virginia None Sine Die Jan 28, 2012Wisconsin None Special Session July 29, 2012Wyoming At Large District June 1, 2012

Page 28: © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should

© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.

/BIPAC

@BIPAC

@DavisMichaelR

ARKANSAS

Page 29: © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should

© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.

OLD - 2001 AR CD MAP NEW - 2011 AR CD MAP

Page 30: © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should

© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.

/BIPAC

@BIPAC

@DavisMichaelRARKANSAS (3-1 REP)DIST ELECTED IN 2010 PARTY 2012 INCUMBENT NOTES01 Rick Crawford REP02 Tim Griffin REP 03 Steve Womack REP04 Mike Ross DEM

PARTISAN CHANGE NONE

Page 31: © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should

© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.

/BIPAC

@BIPAC

@DavisMichaelR

ILLINOIS

Page 32: © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should

© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.

OLD – 2001 CD MAP NEW – 2011 CD MAP

Page 33: © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should

© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.

/BIPAC

@BIPAC

@DavisMichaelRILLINOIS (11-8 REP)DIST ELECTED IN 2010 PARTY 2012 INCUMBENT NOTES01 Bobby Rush DEM Bobby Rush02 Jesse Jackson, Jr. DEM Jesse Jackson, Jr.03 Daniel Lipinski DEM Daniel Lipinski04 Luis Gutierrez DEM Luis Gutierrez05 Mike Quigley DEM Quigley & Biggert ? DEM hold06 Peter Roskam REP Roskam & Biggert 2 REP Incumbents07 Danny Davis DEM Danny Davis08 Joseph Walsh REP DEM pickup09 Jan Schakowsky DEM Jan Schakowsky10 Bob Dold REP Dold & Walsh ? Lean DEM pickup11 Adam Kinzinger REP DEM pickup12 Jerry Costello DEM Jerry Costello13 Judy Biggert REP Retirement? Lean DEM14 Randy Hultgren REP Walsh & Hultgren 2 REP Incumbents ?15 Tim Johnson REP Johnson & Shimkus Retirement? 16 Donald Manzullo REP Kinzinger & Johnson ? 2 REP Incumbents ?17 Bobby Schilling REP Schilling & Manzullo Competitive18 Aaron Schock REP Shock & Johnson ? Shock moves here19 John Shimkus REP District Eliminated Due To Reapportionment

PARTISAN CHANGE -5 REP / +4DEM

Page 34: © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should

© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.

/BIPAC

@BIPAC

@DavisMichaelR

INDIANA

Page 35: © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should

© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.

OLD – 2001 IN CD MAP NEW - 2011 IN CD MAP

Page 36: © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should

© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.

/BIPAC

@BIPAC

@DavisMichaelRINDIANA (6-3 REP)DIST ELECTED IN 2010 PARTY 2012 INCUMBENT NOTES01 Peter Visclosky DEM Peter Visclosky02 Joe Donnelly DEM Joe Donnelly - OPEN Competitive/Lean REP03 Marlin Stutzman REP Marlin Stutzman04 Todd Rokita REP Todd Rokita Rokita moves here05 Dan Burton REP Dan Burton06 Mike Pence REP Mike Pence - OPEN07 Andre Carson DEM Andre Carson08 Larry Bucshon REP Larry Bucshon09 Todd Young R EP Todd Young

PARTISAN CHANGE +1 REP / -1 DEM

Page 37: © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should

© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.

/BIPAC

@BIPAC

@DavisMichaelR

IOWA

Page 38: © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should

© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.

OLD – 2001 IA CD MAP NEW – 2011 IA CD MAP

Page 39: © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should

© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.

/BIPAC

@BIPAC

@DavisMichaelRIOWA (3-2 DEM)DIST ELECTED IN 2010 PARTY 2012 INCUMBENT NOTES01 Bruce Braley DEM Bruce Braley02 Dave Loebsack DEM Dave Loebsack Loebsack moves here03 Leonard Boswell DEM Boswell & Latham Competitive04 Tom Latham REP Steve King Vs. Christie Vilsack05 Steve King REP District Eliminated Due To Reapportionment

PARTISAN CHANGE NONE TO+1 REP / -1 DEM

Page 40: © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should

© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.

/BIPAC

@BIPAC

@DavisMichaelR

LOUISIANA

Page 41: © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should

© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.

OLD – 2001 LA CD MAP NEW – 2011 LA CD MAP

LA-03 MAP

Page 42: © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should

© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.

/BIPAC

@BIPAC

@DavisMichaelRLOUISIANA (6-1 REP)DIST ELECTED IN 2010 PARTY 2012 INCUMBENT NOTES01 Steve Scalise REP Steve Scalise02 Cedric Richmond DEM Cedric Richmond03 Jeff Landry REP Landry & Boustany Competitive Primary04 John Fleming REP John Fleming05 Rodney Alexander REP Rodney Alexander06 Bill Cassidy REP Bill Cassidy07 Charles Boustany Jr. REP District Eliminated Due To Reapportionment

PARTISAN CHANGE 0 REP / -1 DEM

Page 43: © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should

© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.

/BIPAC

@BIPAC

@DavisMichaelR

MISSOURI

Page 44: © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should

© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.

OLD – 2001 MO CD MAP NEW – 2011 MO CD MAP

Page 45: © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should

© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.

/BIPAC

@BIPAC

@DavisMichaelRMISSOURI (6-3 REP)DIST ELECTED IN 2010 PARTY 2012 INCUMBENT NOTES01 Lacy Clay, Jr. DEM Lacy Clay, Jr.02 Todd Akin REP Carnahan ? Akin running for

U.S. Senate03 Russ Carnahan DEM Luetkemeyer &

Carnahan04 Vicky Hartzler REP Vicky Hartzler05 Emanuel Cleaver DEM Emanuel Cleaver06 Sam Graves, Jr. REP Sam Graves, Jr.07 Billy Long REP Billy Long08 Jo Ann Emerson REP Jo Ann Emerson09 Blaine Luetkemeyer REP Lost Due To Reapportionment

PARTISAN CHANGE 0 REP / -1 DEM

Page 46: © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should

© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.

/BIPAC

@BIPAC

@DavisMichaelR

NEBRASKA

Page 47: © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should

© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.

OLD – 2001 NE CD MAP

NEW – 2011 NE CD MAP

Page 48: © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should

© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.

/BIPAC

@BIPAC

@DavisMichaelRNEBRASKA (3-0 REP)DIST ELECTED IN 2010 PARTY 2012 INCUMBENT NOTES01 Jeff Fortenberry REP Jeff Fortenberry02 Lee Terry REP Lee Terry03 Adrian Smith REP Adrian Smith

PARTISAN CHANGE NONE

Page 49: © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should

© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.

/BIPAC

@BIPAC

@DavisMichaelR

OKLAHOMA

Page 50: © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should

© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.

OLD – 2001 OK CD MAP

NEW – 2011 OK CD MAP

Page 51: © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should

© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.

/BIPAC

@BIPAC

@DavisMichaelROKLAHOMA (4-1 REP)DIST ELECTED IN 2010 PARTY 2012 INCUMBENT NOTES01 John Sullivan REP John Sullivan02 Dan Boren DEM Dan Boren03 Frank Lucas REP Frank Lucas04 Tom Cole REP Tom Cole05 James Lankford REP James Lankford

PARTISAN CHANGE NONE

Page 52: © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should

© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.

THANK YOU!

Michael R. Davis, IOMVice President, Political ProgramsBIPAC(202) [email protected]

Follow us at: /BIPAC @BIPAC @DavisMichaelRBlog – FightsForJobs.com

Page 53: © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should