© 2013 university of notre dame. all rights reserved. this powerpoint presentation may not be...

“Creative thinking is not a talent, it is a skill that can be learnt. It empowers people by adding strength to their natural abilities which improves teamwork, productivity and where appropriate profits.”

Edward de Bono© 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved. This PowerPoint presentation may not be duplicated, distributed or excerpted without the University’s advance written consent.

Wrapping Up Module 2

© 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Takeaways From Module #2

Foresight forecasts provide decision support Start with evidence-based baseline

forecasts Expected scenario will likely not occur –

so don’t seek a perfect statistical model – directionally correct (based on evidence) is the goal

Uncertain disruptions knock the future off the baseline

Creatively developed scenarios are the payoff


Onward to Module 3…


Foresight to Insight to Action

Source: Get There Early, Bob Johansen

Unleash the power of Creative Thinking

INSIGHT


In Pursuit of the Perfect Brainstorm

What is Jump Assoc.’s value proposition?


In Pursuit of the Perfect Brainstorm

What is Jump Assoc.’s value proposition?

http://www.jumpassociates.com/wp-content/themes/jumpsite60/pdf/jumpfactsheet.pdf


http://www.jumpassociates.com/wp-content/themes/jumpsite60/pdf/jumpfactsheet.pdf

Idea Generation

“The best way to get a good idea is to get a lot of ideas”

Linus Pauling

Divergent Thinking vs. Convergent Thinking


1. Defer Judgment2. Build on the ideas of others3. Stay focused on the topic4. One conversation at a time 5. Encourage wild ideas6. Go for quantity7. Be visual

IDEO’s Rules for Brainstorming


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NugRZGDbPFU&feature=related


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NugRZGDbPFU&feature=related

Identify a lot of implications

3x3 Futures Wheels: Step 1

Change

1st OrderImplication

3rd OrderImplication

2nd OrderImplication




















Identifying Implications

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5F_SRwrCF6Q&list=PLE556938047986587




Identifying Implications

May Solve Problem A

May Worsen Situation B

May Produce New Opportunity C

May Create Entirely New Problem D


Explore for Opportunities

3x3 Futures Wheels: Step 2

Change






















Create Collisions


Building Implications from Scenarios

Source: The Future of Arctic Marine Navigation in Mid-Century, Global Business Network, May 2008© 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

Building Implications from Scenarios

• Much activity, primarily military, and dominantly destinational for resource extraction

• Unilateral governance regimes lead to inconsistent infrastructure with incompatible standards

• Seasonal trans-Arctic passage possible, but not permitted politically


1st Order Implications

“Arctic Race”

Incompatiblestandards

Trans-Arctic passage not permitted politically

Increased extractionactivity


2nd Order Implications

“Arctic Race”

Incompatible standards

Trans-Arctic passage not permitted politically


Less Stable Resource Supply

Strange New Internat’l Alliances

Environmental Damage


3rd Order Implications

“Arctic Race”





Ecological Restoration

ProjectsLegal & Reg Compliance

Needs

Rapid Disaster Response



“Arctic Race”

Trans-Arctic passage blocked by stakeholder





Vertical Integration

Development of Alternative

MaterialsPurchasing

Contract Hedges



“Arctic Race”

Incompatible standards

Trans-Arctic passage blocked by stakeholder


Increased Compliance Complexity

Trade Conflict

Regional Pacts Emerge

Incr. in Value of Compliance

More Legal Disputes


Collisions of Hunches

Vertical Integration

Ecological Restoration

Projects

High Impact Co’s Create Restoration Subsidiaries

Incr. in Value of Compliance


“Even a forecast that never happens is worthwhile if it provokes insight for you.”

Bob JohansenInstitute For The Future


3x3 Futures Wheel Workshop

STEP 1 – DIVERGE Develop a futures wheel around one of

your scenarios 20 minutes

STEP 2 – CONVERGE Collide 2nd and 3rd order implications Describe the resulting opportunities Rinse, Repeat 20 minutes

Report out at end of session© 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

• Quiz #3 on ___________

• Review Session TBD

• Review Sheet is Posted

Upcoming Class…


Next Foresight Deliverables

Draft Foresight Report – Due ______________

Peer Reviews of Draft Foresight Report – Due ______________


© 2013 university of notre dame. all rights reserved. this powerpoint presentation may not be...

Documents

order implication

university of notre

new problem d

new opportunity c

deep dive http

contract hedges

convergent thinking

wild ideas