© 2014 ibm corporation simone bianco, ibm almaden research center © 2014 ibm corporation the...
TRANSCRIPT
© 2014 IBM Corporation
Simone Bianco, IBM Almaden Research Center
© 2014 IBM Corporation
The Global Threat of Ebola
© 2014 IBM Corporation
The global threat of Ebola
Ebola virus an RNA virus
There is no vaccine and no cure
Low transmission, high virulence
Transmission from contact with body fluids (blood, saliva, sweat, semen, etc.; <1m)
Increased transmission after death (2-5x)
A “behavioral” component
Long incubation period (2-21 days); high chance that will spread from traveling carriers; contact tracing
High mortality (~35% currently, >90% in previous outbreaks; ~17000 infected, >6000 deaths)
© 2014 IBM Corporation
Modeling an Ebola outbreak response: STEM
Outbreaks need prompt response
Mathematical modeling of alternative scenarios
Consider air and land travel
Use reliable denominator data
Integrate datasets (humidity, temperature, wind, etc.)
Make reliable predictions at both local and global level
Free and open source (IBM to Eclipse foundation, US AF-SGO)
© 2014 IBM Corporation
Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Disease: Ebola
© 2014 IBM Corporation
Global threat of the West Africa Ebola outbreak
© 2014 IBM Corporation
Extensions
Ongoing
Contact mapping (with US Naval Research Lab, IBM Kenya Lab, Gov't of Sierra Leone)
Behavioral/social components and their effect (with US Naval Research Lab and College of William and Mary)
Proposed
Introduce vaccine (different strategies)
Strategic deployment of resources
“What if” scenarios:- What if the infection can be transmitted before symptoms show?- What if the infection increases/decreases in transmission/virulence- What if the disease mutates and becomes resistant to drugs- ...
© 2014 IBM Corporation
Example: Changing hospitalization/burial rates
Hu, Bianco, Edlund, Kaufman, under review on PloS Currents: Outbreaks
© 2014 IBM Corporation
Facilitating contact tracing: Citizen engagement
Education and citizen engagement based on analytics of transcribed voice calls and SMS messages sourced directly from citizens
Partnering with Open Government Initiative (OGI) in collaboration with researchers on the Africa’s Voices program at Cambridge University, Echo Mobile, and telephone companies and radio broadcasting stations in Sierra Leone.
Assess the effectiveness (understanding) of current public service announcements (PSAs) (as expressed in local language)
Identify possible barriers to target behavior (from the PSAs) and feedback to CDC, Govt, MSF, Red Cross, etc.
© 2014 IBM Corporation
Visualizing SMS/voice reporting (Freetown, SL)
© 2014 IBM Corporation
Preliminary impact (September 24-October 8) – Sierra Leone
Compared to the previous report (September 19-23):
Higher number of reported dead bodies (2-3 times increase in reporting)
150 sick people identified
350 dead bodies reported and picked up
50 suspected Ebola cases identified
© 2014 IBM Corporation
Global IBM Ebola initiatives
STEMhttps://www.eclipse.org/stem/
Citizen Engagement through SMS/Voice
Ebola OpenData Jam and repositoryhttp://eboladata.org/
Coordination Technology to Nigeria
Weekly Ebola Scientific community callhttps://wiki.eclipse.org/Weekly_Community_Ebola_Modeling_Phone_Call
Africa Health Care Delivery System Data Set
Public Health Solution for Disease Surveillance and Management (w GBS Canada support
© 2014 IBM Corporation
Thank you!
© 2014 IBM Corporation
Additional Slides
© 2014 IBM Corporation
Example: Changing hospitalization/burial rates
Hu, Bianco, Edlund, Kaufman, under review on PloS Currents: Outbreaks
© 2014 IBM Corporation
Example: Changing hospitalization/burial rates
Hu, Bianco, Edlund, Kaufman, under review on PloS Currents: Outbreaks
© 2014 IBM Corporation
Ebola community weekly call
https://wiki.eclipse.org/Weekly_Community_Ebola_Modeling_Phone_Call