® 9-11, u.s. intelligence, & the real world robert david steele a nations best defense is an...
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®
9-11, U.S. Intelligence, & the Real World
Robert David Steele<[email protected]>
A Nation’s best defense is an educated citizenry. Thomas Jefferson
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9-11: Systemic Failure
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World War III Players
Bacteria
Nation-States
Gangs
Companies
Citizens
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Policy Intelligence Failure:Unbalanced Instruments of Power
Too much of:• Military heavy metal
• Technical collection
Not enough of:• Humans on ground
• Human expert analysis
• Technical processing
• State & local intelligence
• Public health, water, etc.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
USA Allies Russia China Rogues
Military Diplomacy Home Front
The real budget is the real policy.
Citizens must vote and provide constant oversight if the taxpayer
dollar is to be spent wisely.
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Intelligence Defined
Collection• Human• Technical
Analysis• Current• Estimative
Covert Action• Black Ops• Mind Ops
Counter-intelligence• Defensive• Offensive
Leadership• Mindset• Courage
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9-11 & Intelligence: the Boiling Pot
• Collection: – Satellites deaf
– Spies incompetent
• Data entry: FBI still in pencil & paper mode
• Translation: lack of personnel or funds
• Processing: no single central OpIntel “plot”
• Analysis– Did not connect the
dots (dots found to have been known)
– Marginally-qualified analysts (no language, culture, history)
• Liaison: “business as usual,” no demands
• Mind-set: muddled
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9-11 & Policy: The Oblivious Frog
• World Trade Center 1st Bombing– Sidelined to law
enforcement
– Documents not translated
– Ignored bin Laden’s open declaration of war
– No change to visa or border security process
• Global Terrorism– Ignored warnings on
cockpit and airport safety (industry against)
– Accepted bombings of 2 embassies, a barracks, and a naval vessel as “cost of doing business”
– Accepted lack of action by other nations
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Digital Analog Oral/Unpublished
EnglishLanguage
ForeignLanguages*
*29 predominant languages, over 3,000 distinct languages in all.
NSA FBIS UN/STATE
Cascading Deficiencies:1) Don’t even try to access most information2) Can’t process hard-copy into digital3) Can’t translate most of what we collect
CIA/DO
NRO
Global Intelligence FailureBreakdown in Collection and Understanding
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50% Less CostlyM
ore
Sat
isfy
ing
SIGINT
OSINT
0% 50%
HUMINT
IMINT
MASINT
STATE
Does Not Exist
Global Processing FailureBreakdown in Exploitation, Dissemination
® Conflict Facts for 200223 LIC+, 79 LIC-, 175 VPC
Source: PIOOM (NL), data with permission © 2002 A. Jongman
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Ethnic Fault Lines 200018 Genocide Campaigns On-Going Today
Source: Dr. Greg Stanton
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Water & War
Source: The State of the World Atlas (1997), chart 54, 53
Hyper-Arid
Sub-Humid
Arid
Semi-Arid
Water Pollution
1
2
34
5
6
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Global Threats to Local Survival
*State of the World Atlas (1997), ** Marq de Villier (Water), John Heidenrich and Greg Stanton (Genocide), Michael Klare et al (Resources), all others from PIOOM Map 2002
Complex Emergencies32 Countries
Refugees/Displaced66 Countries
Food Security33 Countries
Child Soldiers41 Countries
Modern Plagues*59 Countries & Rising
Water Scarcity &Contaminated Water**Ethnic Conflict 18 Genocides Today**
Resource Wars, Energy Waste & Pollution**
Corruption Common80 Countries
Censorship Very High62 Countries
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Asymmetric War
• Whatever it takes--– Fight dirty
– Fight smart
– Sabotage
– Bug bombs
– Electronic attack
– Anthrax = panic
– “Ju jitsu” warfare
• $500K = $20B loss
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World Has Changed: I
OLD SECURITY• War “Over There”• State on State War• Organized Violence• Only State Could Do• Defined Rules• Clear Winners/Losers
NEW SECURITY• Terror at Home• Non-State Actors• Random Violence• Anyone Can Play• No Rules At All• Endless Conflict
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PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURETunnels, Pipelines, Bridges, Dams, Towers
ELECTRONIC INFRASTRUCTUREPower, Financial, Comms, Transportation
MILITARY ACHILLES’ HEELSOff-base power, down-links, antennas
ECONOMIC BLAHSNo Fly No Spend No Hire
DATACorruption
Public Health
Home Front Weaknesses
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TIME IMPACT SHORT
TIME IMPACT
LONG
MULTI-CULTURAL & TRANS-NATIONAL
EQUITIES
SINGLE-CULTURE SINGLE-ORGANIZATION
EQUITIES
LEADERS DECIDE
PEOPLE DECIDE
TOP-DOWN COMMAND & CONTROL
SECRET SOURCES & METHODS
BOTTOM-UP INFORMATION-SHARING
OPEN SOURCES & METHODS
OBVIOUS DETAIL
OBSCURE DETAIL
OLD
NEW
World Has Changed: II
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Taking Down the WestElectronic Targets• Federal Reserve• Internet switches• Satellite downlinks• Power generators• Railway controls• Fuel tank controls• Dam & sewage controls
Physical Targets• Alaska pipeline• Panama canal• Telephone switches• Cables (“Cut Here”)• Railway bridges• Dams and levees• Tunnels to cities
Bio-war: Suicidal blond blue-eyed plague & smallpox carriers
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Individual as Threat
and Target
State as Threat
and Target
Defense Against Weapons Systems “Over There”
Defense of InfrastructureHere at Home
Offense Against Fixed Ground
Offense Against Distributed Groups
OLDNEW
PRIVATE SECTOR IS PRIMARY ACTOR
STATE IS PRIMARY ACTOR
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Four Different Threats to America:Require Four Different Security Approaches
PHYSICAL
STEALTH,
PRECISION
TARGETING
NATURAL
STEALTH,
RANDOM
TARGETING
CYBER -
STEALTH,
DATABASE
TARGETING
IDEO -
STEALTH,
MASS
TARGETING
GUERRILLAWAR
CULTURALWAR
HIGH TECH
BRUTES
(BIG WAR)
LOW TECH
BRUTES
(GANGS)
HIGH TECH
SEERS
(HOME)
LOW TECH
SEERS
(POOR)
MONEY--RUTHLESSNESS
POWER BASE
KNOWLEDGE--IDEOLOGY
TERRORISMECONOMICWAR
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Agricultural Era Power
• Brotherhood (Blood)• Strength (Brute)• Memory (Skill)• Customs (Tribal Mind)• Secret Societies• Crusading Religions• Citizenship (New Tribe)
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Industrial Era Power
• Luck/Mineral Discovery• Specialization• Laws and Rules• Concentrated Wealth• Armed Forces• Taxation & Bureaucracy• Infrastructure• Fraud & Corruption
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Information Era Power
• Insider knowledge• Social wealth networks• Electric power• Global transportation• Electronic money• Electronic
communications• The Internet
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Hurting High-Tech Brutes
• Pay attention to them• Have a grand strategy
– Tribal focus
– Regional focus
– Money talks
– Be ruthless
• Have your facts right• Have public support
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Hurting Low-Tech Brutes
• Kill them• Jail them• Impoverish them• Diminish them• If you cannot combine
early intelligence down to the individual level, with ruthlessness, you will lose.
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Hurting Low-Tech Seers
• Genocide• Famine• Plagues• Water scarcity• Unfettered crime• Promote war lords• Tolerate corruption• Avoid them
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Hurting High-Tech Seers
• Cause Random Panic• Cause Plague• Crash the Fed• Hack Logistics• Blow Planes, Trains• Blow Tunnels• Blow Oil Tanks• Random Sniping
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10%
50%
25%
15%
State vs State
State vs Nation
Inter-Ethnic Tribal
Gang Wars, Genocide,Decolonization
Taxpayer Dollars Focused on 10% of the Threat
®New Strategy: 1 + iii:
Need huge increase in “soft power” capabilities
50% 15% 20% 15%
250B vs. 400B 75B vs 20B 100B vs. 20B 75B vs. 16B
CINCWAR CINCSOLIC CINCPEACE CINCHOME
Strategic NBC Small Wars State/USIA Intelligence
Big War(s) Constabulary Peace Corps Border Patrol
Ground Truth Economic Aid Port Security
1 ii i
Electronic
Reserve
Reserve Environment
Public HealthReserve
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Public Intelligence Failure:Uneducated, unengaged, unconnected
Why This Matters• Homeland security--”A
Nation’s best defense is an educated citizenry.”
• Prosperity--the financial value of ethics, trust, strategic culture
• Global security--the long-term value of public intelligence to multi-cultural policy initiativesWorld War III Players
Bacteria
Nations
GangsCitizens
Inc.
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New Craft of Intelligence
I
Lessons of History
II
Global Coverage
III
National Intelligence
IV
Spies & Secrecy
China, Islam, Ethnic, Etc.
Cost-Sharing with Others--Shared Early Warning
Narrowly focused!
Harness distributed intelligence of Nation
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Seven Intelligence Tribes:The Way Ahead
Military
Law Enforcement
Business
Academic
National
NGO &Media
Religions& Clans
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Modern Presidential LeadershipPresidentCongress Judiciary
Chief of Staff
Director-General forNational Policy
Director-General forGlobal Strategy
Director-General forNational Intelligence
Director-General forNational Research
Director of ClassifiedIntelligence (DCI)
Chairman, NationalIntelligence Council
Director, Global Knowledge Foundation
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Modern Strategic Governance
Director GeneralGlobal Strategy
Deputy DirectorGlobal Strategy
Deputy DirectorResponse Management
Associate Directors• Strategic Council• Leadership Retreats• Global Reserve• Special Projects
Associate Directors• Response Center• Public Liaison• Civilian Reserve• Non-State Actors
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Governance Reform
• Coalition Cabinet• Quality Education• Public Health• Ethics• 7th Generation Issues
– Water
– Energy
– Information
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Electoral Reform
• Voting on week-ends• League of Women
Voters & Debates• Cabinet Choices in
Advance & in Debates• Instant Run-Off• End Gerrymandering• End Corporate Funding
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Let’s Get Our Priorities Straight!
• Third, share the benefits of life with all mankind.• Fourth, ensure that life on Earth is sustainable.
First, defeat terrorism.
Second, strengthen our alliances.
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A Strong America Through Common Sense
• We must honor our values and stop supporting dictators.
• We must serve the interests of the people rather than corporations.
• We must have balanced national security capabilities.
• We must be fiscally sound.
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9-11, U.S. Intelligence, & the Real World
Robert David Steele<[email protected]>
…the greatest menace to freedom is an inert people... Justice Louis Brandeis