reflections…. · awb – leave it to the men eisenhower ‘the sergeant is the army’ (the story...

Reflections….

John Bicheno

What this is about..

Some personal stories had an impactLeading to

A way of thinking about Lean

Reflections on Lean Absolutes 2

Stories of Respect and Humility

Crew Size OptimisationGeneral v.d. RietAWB – Leave it to the MenEisenhower ‘The sergeant is the army’ (The story of Eisenhower, Allied Supreme Commander)


What are these about?


Stories about Growing People

Davidson – creating thinking peopleBolitho – every dayMahesh – Leading by Nourishing; Confirmation Bias; Seeds and the Tree

Note:Drucker ‘The goal of management is to make productive the specific strengths of each individual’


Stories of Time

The Laundry SupplierLEAP, 3 Day Car, and Muda, Mura, MuriFailure DemandJustin Watts (and others..)

So..Kingman!


Inventory Profile of the UK Automotive Supply Chain

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Raw

Mat

eria

l

Boug

ht-o

ut P

arts

In-h

ouse

bui

ltPa

rts

Pre-

Asse

mbl

yW

IP

Asse

mbl

y W

IP

Fini

shed

Com

pone

nts

Inbo

und

Tran

sit

On-

site

Par

t(V

M)

Vehi

cle

Prod

uctio

n W

IP

Load

ing

&D

espa

tch

Out

boun

dTr

ansi

t

Mar

ketp

lace

Cus

tom

er

Day

s of

Inve

ntor

y

MaxAverageMin

First TierSuppliers

VehicleManufacturers

Distribution& Retail

Outbound Logistics

Inbound Logistics

Source: Holweg (2002)


Queue Time, Variation and Utilizationle

adtim

e

30% Utilisation ρ 100%

Moderatevariation

Zero variation

High uncertainty

Some uncertainty


Expected Lead Time (Kingman)

L = (C2a + C2

e)/2 x (ρ / (1- ρ)) x te + te

C2a is arrival variance; C2

e is process variance

ρ is utilization (load / capacity or arrival rate / service rate)

MURA MURI Ave Process Leadtime

Reflections on Lean Absolutes

ρ = λ / μ10

Expanding on Kingman

Reflections on Lean Absolutes

Capacity

Load

Utilization =

ValueDemand

FailureDemand+

Base Capacity Waste-

11

The Four Fundamental Variables Critical to Lead Time

Arrival variationProcess variationLoad (and especially Failure Demand)Capacity (and waste)

NoteReinertsen: Kingman in Design / NPI timeHopp and Spearman, Factory PhysicsSchmenner: Swift, Even Flow Toyota: Muda, Muri, Mura


Stories of Action and Improvement

PDSA and Changeover at RowenJohnny Williams and Small Wins at a Logistics Company (Kata: the everyday encouragement of small wins)

Note:Spear: Surfacing, Swarming, Spreading, EnsuringRother on KataRepetition: TWI, Shenk on ‘Genius’; Gladwell on 10k ruleAmabile and Kramer: Small winsMaurer: Small steps


Stories of Customers and Employees

Air SeychellesCutting Staff at Four Logistics Depots (and the effects on those remaining)Doc Hall on Compression (and others)


What do these lead onto?

The Absolutes!NeedsSpeedDeedsSeeds

(plus Humility and Reflection)


Five Lean Principles ….have served us well

Specify what creates value from the customers perspective Identify all steps across the whole value streamMake those actions that create value flowOnly make what is pulled by the customer just-in-timeStrive for perfection by continually removing successive layers of waste


..but beware of Interpretation

Value = ask the customer, market survey; the 7 wastes ; ‘what are they prepared to pay for?’ ; policy deploymentValue Stream = VSMFlow = constraints, layout, reduce inventory, changeoverPull = kanbanPerfection = six sigma, pokayoke, andon, A3Toolheads! This was not the intention, but was often the result


A Way of thinking about Lean


Humility

Reflection

Concepts..


Needs Speed Deeds Seeds

Customers Arrival variation Gemba (Go See)

Mentoring

Employees Process variation PDSA Socratic Method

Suppliers Utilization: Kata Confirmation Bias

Environment Failure demand Kaizen (end –to-end)

‘The Watchers’

Wastes Kaizen (small wins)

Flow TWI -JR

Leader StdWork

Reflections….

John Bicheno

reflections…. · awb – leave it to the men eisenhower ‘the sergeant is the army’ (the story...

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