, c. damon, t. crean g. fugate, b. a. oakley , and p. stempel...m. l. spaulding1, a. grilli1, c....
TRANSCRIPT
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M. L. Spaulding1, A. Grilli1, C. Damon2, T. Crean3, G. Fugate4, B. A. Oakley5, and P. Stempel6
1 Ocean Engineering, University of RI, Narragansett, RI2 Environmental Data Center, University of RI, Kingston, RI3 Coastal Resources Center, University of RI, Narragansett, RI; 4 Coastal Resources Management Council, Wakefield, RI5 Eastern Connecticut State University, Willimantic, CT6 Department of Marine Affairs, University of RI, Kingston, RI
Presenter: Christopher Damon, URI Environmental Data Center [email protected]
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Coastal Environmental Risk Index Areas of Study
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Coastal Environmental Risk Index
Storm Return Period Sea Level Rise Scenarios (ft)Nuisance Events
1-Year 0, 1, 2, 3, 5, 72-Year 0, 1, 2, 3, 5, 73-Year 0, 1, 2, 3, 5, 75-Year 0, 1, 2, 3, 5, 710-Year 0, 1, 2, 3, 5, 7
Major Events25-Year 0, 1, 2, 3, 5, 750-Year 0, 1, 2, 3, 5, 7100-Year 0, 1, 2, 3, 5, 7500-Year 0
Historic EventsHurricane of 1938 0Hurricane Carol (1954) 0Hurricane Bob (1991) 0Superstorm Sandy (2012) 0
Source: STORMTOOLs* All available to download or as online maps
STORMTOOLS2014-2015
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Coastal Environmental Risk Index
RI CRMC Policy and Regulations aka“Red Book” • Section 145 “Climate change and Sea Level
Rise”
The Council will:• Proactively plan for and integrate climate
change and SLR scenarios into its programs.
The Council recommends:• STORMTOOLS maps to evaluate inundation
from storm surge and SLR.
STORMTOOLS Impact
Adopted as official surge and SLR projections for R.I.
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Coastal Environmental Risk Index CERI - 2016
Quantitative means of assessing community risk to structures and infrastructure accounting for storm surge, waves, SLR, and shoreline change.
GOAL:
Methods:• Coupled ADCIRC/STWAVE
modeling for water levels/waves
• Apply damage curves to compute structural losses
• 100yr event with 0’, 2’, 7’ SLR
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Coastal Environmental Risk Index
North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study (NACCS)Assess flood risks to vulnerable populations, resources and infrastructure
Reduce risk and promote coastal resiliency
Source: ACOE NACCS Main Report
1,050 Synthetic Tropical Storms100 Historic Extratropical Storms
Source: ACOE ERDC
Hurricane Sandy Impacts
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Coastal Environmental Risk Index
Source: STORMTOOLs
Used 95% C.I. values for conservative projections
CERI Building Blocks:Water Level and Waves
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Coastal Environmental Risk Index CERI Building Blocks:SLR &Planning Horizons
Sea level rise prediction curves for Newport, RI. Sea Level Change Curve Calculator, US Army Corps of Engineers: http://www.corpsclimate.us/ccaceslcurves.cfm
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Coastal Environmental Risk Index CERI Building Blocks:Shoreline Change
Source: B. Oakley
Temporal Scales:• Event• Long-Term
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Coastal Environmental Risk Index E-911 Housing Stock
Source: ACOE
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Coastal Environmental Risk Index Inundation Damage,Structure
Source: NACCS Depth Damage Summary
5A – Single, No Basement 6B – Double, Basement 7A – Elevated, Open Pile
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Coastal Environmental Risk Index Structural Damage“Most Likely” Scenario
Residential LossesDamage > 50%
53%Lost to Erosion
0%Below MSL
0%
Source: CERI
Sea Level Rise = 0n = 987
* Can convert damage to $$ with tax/parcel records
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Coastal Environmental Risk Index Structural Damage“Most Likely” Scenario
Residential LossesDamage > 50%
58%Lost to Erosion
4%Below MSL
29%
Source: CERI
Sea Level Rise = 7n = 1,322
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Coastal Environmental Risk Index Visualization Alternatives
Source: CERI
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Coastal Environmental Risk Index Structural Damage“Most Likely” Scenario
Residential LossesDamage > 50%
42%Lost to Erosion
0%Below MSL
5%
Source: CERI
Sea Level Rise = 7n = 5,304
* Lower waves than coast but higher surge
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Coastal Environmental Risk Index Path Forward
FEMA Incentives
Risk Transparency
Improved Resiliency
Land Evidence Record
Federal State Local
Lower Insurance Premiums
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Coastal Environmental Risk Index Data Access / OutreachOnline Mapping
Source: P. Stempel
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Coastal Environmental Risk Index References
Coastal Environmental Risk Index (CERI) and STORMTOOLSSpaulding, M. L., T. Isaji, C. Damon, and G. Fugate, 2015. STORMTOOLS: Storm water levels vs return period for RI based on NACCS ADCIRC-STWAVE Model Predictions. Technical Report, 14pp. https://tinyurl.com/gsmq4ym.
Spaulding, M. L., A. Grilli, C. Damon, T. Crean, G. Fugate, B. A. Oakley, and P. StempelSTORMTOOLS: Coastal Environmental Risk Index (CERI), 2016. J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2016, 4, 54; doi:10.3390/jmse4030054.
Small, C., Blanpied, T., Kauffman, A., O’Neil, C., Proulx, N., Rajacich, M., Simpson, H., White, J., Baxter, C., Spaulding, M.L., and C. Swanson, 2016. Assessment of damage from storm surge and sea level rise along Matunuck Beach Road and surrounding communities. 2016. J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2016, 4, 67; doi:10.3390/jmse4040067.
Spaulding, M., A. Grilli, C. Damon, G. Fugate, B. A. Oakley, T. Isaji, and L. Schambach, 2016.Application of state of art modeling techniques to predict flooding and waves for an exposed coastal area Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2017, 5, 10; doi:10.3390/jmse5010010.
North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study (NACCS)Cialone, M., et al, 2015. North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study (NACCS) Coastal Storm Model Simulations: Waves and Water Levels, US Army Corp of Engineers, Engineering Research and Development Center, January 2015. http://www.nad.usace.army.mil/CompStudy.aspx
STORMTOOLs / CERI Online Mapping Portalhttp://www.beachsamp.org
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Additional Slides
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Coastal Environmental Risk Index Areas of Study
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Coastal Environmental Risk Index
Credit: T. Crean
Storm Events
Middlebridge, RI: Water Level + 3’
Description
Return Period: Episodic
Driver(s): Weather
Duration: Hours to Days
Coping Strategy: Wait
Sea Level RiseDescription
Return Period: Daily
Driver(s): Tides
Duration: Hours
Coping Strategy: New Normal
Inundation Mapping
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Coastal Environmental Risk Index
Modeled Analysis
Single value applied across study area
Modeled output varies across study areaMay include waves, erosion, run-up, currents etc.SLOSH, ADCIRC, STWAVE, SWAN etc.
“Bathtub” Analysis
Highlights areas that mayhave problems
Need expert input to be sure
Inundation Mapping
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Coastal Environmental Risk Index Community Exposure2011-2012
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Coastal Environmental Risk Index STORMTOOLS2014-2015
Data
Maps
Modeling/Analysis Tools
Simplified Surge ModelingAccount for spatial variation in surge
Develop quick, accurate method of determining water levels including SLR
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Coastal Environmental Risk Index Water Level Scaling
Newport
Providence
Tested: NOS water levels; NHC SLOSH models; NACCS
Validation: predictions +/- 10% of recorded water levels
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Coastal Environmental Risk Index FEMA Flood Zones
Source: FEMA RiskMAP
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Coastal Environmental Risk Index BFE Comparison
Source: CERISource: FEMA
Differences likely due to:FEMA methods and assumptions:− Non-coupled surge/wave; low erosion estimates
Water levels at 95% C.I.
FEMA FIRMs are regulatory,CERI surge and wave maps are advisory
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Coastal Environmental Risk Index
Shoreline erosion and sea level rise
Changes in storm frequency/severity
Cumulative storm effects
FIRMs Do Not Account For:
*If FIRMs suspect BFE + 3’ or moreSource: FEMA Home Builders Guide, TFS #1.6
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Coastal Environmental Risk Index Modeled Surge Height
Source: CERI
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Coastal Environmental Risk Index Modeled Wave Height
Source: CERI
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Coastal Environmental Risk Index CERI Base Flood Elev.
Source: CERI
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Coastal Environmental Risk Index Total Inundation
Source: CERI
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Coastal Environmental Risk Index NACCS Structure Class
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Coastal Environmental Risk Index Structural Damage“Most Likely” Scenario
Residential LossesDamage > 50%
66%Lost to Erosion
< 1%Below MSL
< 1%
Source: CERI
Sea Level Rise = 2n = 1,132
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Coastal Environmental Risk Index Visualization Alternatives
Source: CERI
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Coastal Environmental Risk Index Data Access / OutreachOnline Mapping
Source: P. Stempel
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Coastal Environmental Risk Index Data Access / OutreachOnline Mapping
Online Mapping: BeachSAMP.org
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Coastal Environmental Risk Index
Source: P. Stempel
Data Access / Outreach:Visualization