中国能源和世界

China and Rising Oil Prices

William ChandlerPresident

Transition Energy International, Ltd.

Updated1 September 2005

Typical Media Story

“The price of gasoline is rising because China and India are guzzling gasoline.”

- Kiplinger Letter, quoted on WTOP Radio News, 20 March 2005

This view is partly correct, but probably unfair....

Source: British Petroleum, Statistical Review of World Energy, 2004

USA 11Europe 10

Other Asia 7J apan 5China 2

Net Oil Imports, 2003(Million Barrels per Day)

Tradition:Transport by Crude Vehicles & Bicycles

Today: Beijing Rush Hour

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1980 2002Source: BECon, 2004

Chinese Energy Use by Sector

Residential

Commercial

Transport

Construction

Industry

Agriculture

Chinese Energy Use by Type

YearUse (EJ)

Energy Use Mix (%)

Coal Oil Gas Other

1980 15 72 21 3 4

1990 24 EJ 76 17 2 5

2002 36 EJ 66 24 3 8Source: BECon, 2004

Projected Chinese Oil Imports, 2020

Source: U.S. Energy Information Agency, 2002; International Energy Agency, Paris, 1997

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1990 2000 2010 2020

Chinese Oil Supply (Million Barrels per Day)

Domestic

Imports

0

200

400

600

800

USA Japan South Korea China

Vehicles per 1000 Persons

2000

2020w

Forecasting Demand for Transportation Energy: Light Vehicles

The projection in the previous slide was based on this—very conservative—assumption for vehicle ownership, meaning that Chinese imports will probably be even higher in 2020.

China’s Idea of Security Has Changed....

Headlines, Financial Times

23 August 2005

Chinese energy group wins PetroKaz in $4.18bn deal

National Petroleum Corporation yesterday agreed to buy PetroKazakhstan, its central Asian rival, for $4.18bn (£2.3bn) in China's biggest cross-border takeover.

3 August 2005

CNOOC might look to Australian groups

The failure of CNOOC's bid for Unocal has revived speculation that the company might set its sights on Australia's Woodside Petroleum or Santos.

China now seeks security in resources beyond its borders.

from this to this

Energy GeopoliticsThe Struggle to Control Pipelines and Shipping Lanes

Мурманск Сургут

Ангарск

Забайкальск

Находка

Дацин ИокогамаХьюстон

13 450

10 750

3 250

2 515

3 800 - 3 900

23 150

Source: Yukos

•Energy/GDP Elasticity = ~0.6 for years

•Rapid economic development

BECon Energy Efficiency Center

BECon Functions

• Policy reform• Technology transfer• Demonstration• Public information

Success Stories in China

Conclusions About China and Oil

Oil demand is growing faster in China than anywhere else in the world

Automobile air pollution presents a serious environmental threat

Risk that China will not build efficient vehicles, endangering its security and unnecessarily threatening the environment