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WAFC CAT verificationObjective verification of GRIB CAT forecasts Dr Philip G Gill, WAFC Science Meeting, Washington, 20 April 2009

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Contents

This presentation covers the following areas

• Introduction

• SIGWX forecast comparison

• Aircraft data

• Verification methodology

• Verification results

• Summary

• Further improvements

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Introduction

• What – Objective verification of gridded binary (GRIB) and significant weather (SIGWX) Clear Air Turbulence (CAT) forecasts

• Where – Global verification

• When – November 2008 to January 2009

• Why – To demonstrate the quality of the new GRIB forecasts using objective verification.

• How – Verification against aircraft observations from the Global Aircraft Data Set (GADS)

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SIGWX and GRIB CAT forecasts• SIGWX chart

• New GRIB forecast

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Comparison of SIGWX charts

UK US UK&US

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SIGWX CAT forecast comparison

• One month UK-US comparison (January 2009)

• Average coverage of globe UK ~6%, US ~3%

• Percentage overlap of all forecasts between UK and US ~20%

Areas forecast by both UK and US

Areas forecast by UK but not USAreas forecast by US but not UK

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GRIB forecast comparisonproduced by HKO

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Global Aircraft Data Set

• Archive of aircraft data set up by Joel Tenenbaum (State University of New York)

• British Airways fleet of Boeing 747-400 aircraft

• Global coverage, but flights mainly over northern hemisphere

• Automated aircraft observations every 4 seconds

• Indicator of turbulence derived from vertical acceleration, aircraft mass, altitude and airspeed called the derived equivalent vertical gust (DEVG).

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GADS Data coverage

10-19 January 2007

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Verification methodology

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Forecast assessment

• Turbulent/non turbulent event defined on 10min aircraft track ~120km - approx grid size

• Forecast turbulent event – CAT potential >= Threshold

• Observed turbulent event - DEVG>=2m/s

• Construct 2x2 contingency tables for each threshold

• Sum entries in contingency tables over the verification period

• Produce a Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve by plotting the Hit rate against False alarm rate for each threshold.

Turbulence observed

No turbulence observed

Turbulence forecast

Hit False alarm

No turbulence forecast

Miss Correct rejection

2x2 contingency table

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Results UK GRIB and SIGWX

ROC Curve UK GRIB and SIGWX BUFR CAT November 2008-January 2009 Global GADS data

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False alarm rate

Hit

rat

e

GRIB T+24

SIGWX BUFR T+24

~ 300 000 events

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Variation with forecast rangeROC curve January 2009 UK GRIB against Global GADS data

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False alarm rate

Hit

rat

e

T+6

T+12

T+18

T+24

~100 000 events

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Latitudinal variation UK GRIBROC curve 20N to 50N GRIB and SIGWX BUFR against GADS data

T+24 CAT November 2008 - January 2009

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False alarm rate

Hit

rate

GRIB T+24

SIGWX BUFR T+24

ROC curve 50N to 90N GRIB and SIGWX BUFR against GADS data T+24 CAT November 2008 - January 2009

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False alarm rate

Hit

rat

e

GRIB T+24

SIGWX BUFR T+24

ROC curve 50S to 20S GRIB and SIGWX BUFR against GADS data T+24 CAT November 2008 - January 2009

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False alarm rate

Hit

rate

GRIB T+24

SIGWX BUFR T+24

ROC curve 20N to 20N GRIB and SIGWX BUFR against GADS data T+24 CAT November 2008 - January 2009

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False alarm rate

Hit

rate

GRIB T+24

SIGWX BUFR T+24

50N to 90N~120 000 events

50S to 20S~8 000 events

20N to 50N~130 000 events

20S to 20N~37 000 events

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UK and US Nov 2008 and Jan 2009 ROC curve

ROC curve global CAT T+24 forecasts verified against GADS data Nov 2008 and Jan 2009

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False alarm rate

Hit

rate

EGRR GRIB T+24

KKCI GRIB T+24

EGRR SIGWX BUFR T+24

KKCI SIGWX BUFR T+24

~200 000 events

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UK and US latitudinal variation

ROC curve CAT T+24 forecasts 50N to 90N verified against GADS data Nov 2008 and Jan 2009

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False alarm rate

Hit

rate

EGRR GRIB T+24

KKCI GRIB T+24

EGRR SIGWX BUFR T+24

KKCI SIGWX BUFR T+24

ROC curve CAT T+24 forecasts 20N to 50N verified against GADS data Nov 2008 and Jan 2009

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False alarm rate

Hit

rate

EGRR GRIB T+24

KKCI GRIB T+24

EGRR SIGWX BUFR T+24

KKCI SIGWX BUFR T+24

~60 000 events ~60 000 events

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UK GRIB and SIGWX

ROC Curve UK GRIB and SIGWX BUFR CAT November 2008-January 2009 Global GADS data

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False alarm rate

Hit

rat

e

GRIB T+24

SIGWX BUFR T+24

SIGWX SWAM T+24

~300 000 events

SIGWX Automation (SWAM) - UK automated SIGWX chart production system based on GRIB data

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Summary of results

• Both UK and US GRIB products show more skill than the manual SIGWX products.

• Global UK and US GRIB CAT forecasts score similarly

• Slight difference in scores as forecast range increases

• Some differences in scores at individual latitude bands –best performance between 20N and 90N.

• UK CAT coverage on SIGWX charts greater than the US

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Further improvements

• Automate verification process

• Produce statistics by ICAO and WMO regions

• Improve consistency of forecasts by analysing verification data and altering production systems.

• Use verification to test future model upgrades and re-tune algorithms

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Questions and answers