© denis poussart 2005 denis poussart université laval [email protected] challenges promises...

© Denis Poussart 2005

Denis PoussartUniversité Laval

[email protected]

challengespromises

onvergenceomplexity&CC

IS 200515th Annual Canadian Conference on

Intelligent SystemsJune 5 - 7, 2005 - Québec , QC


• What• Why• How• When• But


Joseph Mallord William Turner, Norham Castle, Sunrise c. 1835-40

Tate

Galle

ry

Some recent news …


Electrical Detection of Single Viruses, C.M. Lieber et al. PNAS, September 13, 2004

Biochip detect single virus“We report direct, real-time electrical detection of single virus particles with high selectivity by using nanowire field effect transistors. Measurements made with nanowire arrays modified with antibodies for influenza A showed discrete conductance changes characteristic of binding and unbinding in thepresence of influenza A but not paramyxovirus or adenovirus. Simultaneous electrical and optical measurements using fluorescently labeled influenza A were used to demonstrate conclusively that conductance changes correspond to binding / unbinding of single viruses at the surface of nanowire devices.”


“Here we present scanning tunneling microscopy observations and classical electrostatic and quantum mechanical modeling results that show that the electrostatic field emanating from a fixed point charge regulates the conductivity of nearby substrate-bound molecules. We find that the onset of molecular conduction is shifted by changing the charge state of a silicon surface atom, or by varying the spatial relationship between the molecule and that charged centre. Because the shifting results in conductivity changes of substantial magnitude, these effects are easily observed at room temperature.”

Robert A. Wolkow et al., University of Alberta and National Institute for Nanotechnology, NRC, Nature 435, 658-661 (2 June 2005)

New concept for a single molecule transistor

Field regulation of single-molecule conductivity by a charged surface atom


High performance computing simulates biomolecules

MDGRAPE-3 is a special-purpose computer system for molecular dynamics simulations. Its performance will reach 1 petaflops when it is finished in 2006.

http://big.gsc.riken.jp/ http://www.top500.org

- Hitachi, 130 nm technology

- 20 pipelines for force calculations- peak performance of 200 Gflops

The completed system will have 5120 chips and will simulate 1 million particles at 0.1 sec/step

This is 12 times faster than DOE/IBM BlueGene/L DD2, the fastest general-purpose computer in the world as of November 2004*.

* BlueGene/L beta uses 32768 PPC cpu’s . It will reach360 Teraflops in its completed form in Summer 2005.


An autonomous molecular computer

Ehud Shapiro et al. Weizmann Institute of ScienceNature, 429, 423-429, 2004

for logical control of gene expression


Trends

Smaller is bigger

- Distributed in space

- Morphing from static to dynamic

Expanding scope

Blending of real and virtualBlending of natural and synthetic

From hard to symbolic


Magritte, La trahison des images, 1929, Los Angeles County Museum of Art


Mega Trend

convergence

Advances at the edge of traditional disciplines

Connexions become the core of technology


Cross-discipline linkages fuel Convergence

>

Now

Then

BioInfo

Nano+


Converging Technologiesfor Improving Human Performance:Nanotechnology, Biotechnology, InformationTechnology and Cognitive ScienceNSF/DOC-sponsored report457 pages http://itri.loyola.edu/ConvergingTechnologies/

July 2002


Bricks of the 21st century

Inspired from James Canton, Institute for Global Futures

genesatoms

neuronsbits


NanoTechnology

BioTechnology

Computing Networking


Modules of the 21st century


Architectures of the 21st century


© Denis Poussart 2005http://www2.gsu.edu/~wwwbgs/bgsa/neuro/neurohomebody.htm

http://www.bridgeport.edu/~matanya/vlsi/ictutor.html

Silicon gates are already much smaller and faster than neurons …

100 nM, 1 nsec

1000 nM, 1 msec

1 000 000 x faster

10 x smaller

Smaller is bigger:

BUT …


Making 3-D Chips a Reality: Rensselaer Researchers Pioneer Interconnect Technology That May Take Chips Into 3-D (RPI)

Sun researchers breakthrough: Wireless Method Used to Transmit Data Among Chips

Neurons are connected in 3D!

http://www.rpi.edu/web/News/press_releases/2003/3Dchip.htm

http://www.bayarea.com/mld/mercurynews/business/6847572.htmhttp://www.student.seas.gwu.edu/~dmlab/on_going_research.html

http://www.tezzaron.com/products/technology/3D%20IC%20Summary.htm#3D%20IC%20Research


The usefulness, or utility,of a network equals the square of the number of users.

Metcalfe's Law

(NODES)(ARCHITECTURE)

and do massively parallel computing


There's Plenty of Room at the BottomAn Invitation to Enter a New Field of Physics

Annual meeting of the American Physical Society29 December 1959

Richard P. Feynman(1918 - 1988, Nobel 1965)

1959

But I am not afraid to consider the final question as to whether, ultimately —in the great future—we can arrange the atoms the way we want; the very atoms, all the way down!


Helmut Ruska inventsthe Electronic Microscope

http://www.iap.tuwien.ac.at/www/surface/STM_Gallery/stm_schematic.html

1981

Gerd Binnig & Heinrich Rohrerand the Scanning Tunelling

Microscope (STM)

1929

1986All 3 awarded the

Nobel Prize for physics


Robert F. Curl Jr Rice University, Houston

TX, USA

Sir Harold W. KrotoUniversity of SussexBrighton, England

Richard E. SmalleyRice University, Houston

TX, USA

1996Awarded the Nobel prize in Chemistry for their discoveryof a new form of Carbon, the fullerenes.


Buckminster Fuller

Bucky-ball C60

http://www.chem.sunysb.edu/msl/fullerene.html

Fullerenes

0.7 x nM

ONE transistor of a Pentium IV is 180 nM wide


Now

Then

?


Conventional CMOStransistor

Molecular switch(benzene rings)

Gold

gold

carbon

nitrogen

hydrogen

oxygen

sulfur

Could it replace silicium?

Organic, biological - like “transistor”

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US patent No. 6,586,965 (2003)


Molecular crossbar latch logic:Lithography can produce it

The crossbar latch: Logic value storage, restoration, and inversion in crossbar circuits.Journal of Applied Physics 97, March 2005.

http://www.hpl.hp.com/news/2005/jan-mar/crossbar.html

http://pubs.acs.org/cen/coverstory/8039/8039nanoimage2.html

10X …

…


Actuators: Design of a Nanomechanical Fluid Control Valve Based on Functionalized Silicon Cantilevers: Coupling Molecular Mechanics and Classical Engineering Design

Santiago Solares et al.Materials and Process Simulation CenterCalifornia Institute of Technology

http://www.wag.caltech.edu/nanovalve/


Engineered Bio-Molecular Nano-Devices/Systems (MOLDICE) Programhttp://www.darpa.mil/dso/thrust/biosci/moldice.htm

QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressorare needed to see this picture.

Biosensors & Molecular Switching in Artificial Membranes, V. J. Vodyanoy, Auburn University

Here, we put forward a molecular switch capable of converting a single binding event into the movement of about one million ions per second …. The molecular switches can be triggered by various sensing elements such as antibodies, antibody fragments, polypeptides, DNA, RNA, and ion sensitive molecules.

http://www.darpa.mil/dso/thrust/biosci/biosensor/auburn_i.html

Erwin Neher: Nobel 1991


Artificial RetinaMachelle T. Pardue; Neal S. Peachey;

Sherry L. Ball; Alan Y. Chow;Jay I. Perlman; Evan B.

Stubbs, Jr.; Vince Y. Chow

http://www.optobionics.com/artificialretina.htmhttp://www.varrd.emory.edu/Tech-Transfer/retina.html

http://www.vitreoussociety.org/pr2001/abstracts/symposium-4.html

Synthetic organs

2 mm5000 photodiodes

5 millions cones120 millions rods

1 million axons


http://www.nicolelislab.net/NLNet/Load/Papers/TechReview.pdf

http://www.plos.org/downloads/plbi-01-02-carmena.pdf

Learning to Control a Brain-Machine Interface for Reaching and

Grasping by Primates, M. A. L. Nicolelis et al. Duke University

Direct Brain-Machine Interface


Biological Structure by Electronic HardwareMicro Array Technology


Grid Computing and Biological Structure

aims to determine how some proteins of known structure fold dynamically

http://folding.stanford.edu/

Early 2005: 170 000 cpu’s, 200 Tflops, on-line storage of 40 TB


Grand Challenges for Computing Research

Sponsored by the UK Computing Research Committee, with support from the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council

and National e-Science Centre

http://www.nesc.ac.uk/esi/events/Grand_Challenges/index.html

- In Vivo <=> In Silico - Science for Global Ubiquitous Computing - Memories for Life - Scalable Ubiquitous Computing Systems - The Architecture of Brain and Mind - Dependable Systems Evolution - Journeys in Non-Classical Computation

For on-going reports seehttp://www.nesc.ac.uk/esi/events/Grand_Challenges/gcconf04/submissions.html


http://www.uspto.gov/web/offices/ac/ido/oeip/taf/h_counts.htm

An “explosion” of knowledge …


Convergence

Complexity


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Systems of (Systems of Systems)

Complex SystemsSystems of Systems

• Huge number of elements

• Wide diversity of elements (from devices to processes)

• Multiple scales in time, size and space (nano to macro)

• Diverse nature of variables and links, hard, soft, symbolic

• Unclear boundaries

• Fuzzy / conflicting performance metrics


• Behaviors emerge from dynamic interactions between all components, as well as the “environment”

• Very hard to predict ( … impossible ?)

• Not amenable to classical reductionist analysis

In (great) need of design methodologies

Systems of (Systems of Systems)

Complex SystemsSystems of Systems

© Denis Poussart 2005http://www.tipmagazine.com/tip/INPHFA/vol-9/iss-5/p8.html

A recent example of Complexity:the North-American Power Grid Black-Out

of August 14, 2003

http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/WEBONLY/publicfeature/aug04/0804grid.html

The Unruly Power Grid


Complexity and information systemsLarge projects - are difficult to manage

- are late- and over cost

“En 1999, le projet GIRES devait coûter près de 80 M$. En 2000, l'ancien gouvernement disait plutôt que le projetserait de l'ordre de 275 M$. Maintenant, le Conseil du trésor estime que GIRES coûterait près de 345 M$ ……”

LE GOUVERNEMENT ANNONCE L'ARRET DU PROJET GIRES

Sept 2003

http://communiques.gouv.qc.ca/gouvqc/communiques/GPQF/Septembre2003/30/c6453.html

Powerful, but brittle systems (of systems)


possible ? physics

implementable ? engineering

feasable ? économics

desirable ? social

ethical ? moral

And how to manage Complexity ?

Hierarchical & Linked Challenges


Web 2.0 conferenceOctober 2004

US Library of Congress 26 000 000 volumes ($260M) iLib , 2TB

search by

author

title

Dewey #

Ubiquitous access to knowledge …

2010 ?


A Whole New Mind: Moving from the Information Age to the Conceptual AgeDaniel H. Pink, Riverhead Books.

UnderstandingKnowledge


Where is the wisdom we havelost in knowledge?

Where is the knowledge we havelost in information?

T. S. Eliot, The Rock, 1934


Une connaissance riche est capable de

connaître le lien entre les informations,

les données, les objetset le contexte dans lequel ils se trouvent.

Edgar MorinA propos de la complexité -

Présentation au Conseil scientifique du CNRS, 2002http://www.cnrs.fr/comitenational/conseil/morin.htm


Une connaissance riche est capable de

connaître le lien entre les informations,

les données, les objetset le contexte dans lequel ils se trouvent.

Edgar MorinA propos de la complexité -

Présentation au Conseil scientifique du CNRS, 2002http://www.cnrs.fr/comitenational/conseil/morin.htm

intelligente


Depth & Breadth . . .

A challenge for Intelligent Systems(and their research community)


http://www.gel.ulaval.ca/~poussart/IS_2005.ppt

[email protected]

CC&


extras


http://europa.eu.int/comm/health/ph_risk/events_risk_en.htm

NanotechnologiesRisk Analysis

143 pagesDe Humanis Corporis Fabrica, Andreas Vesalius (1543)

In Europe


Bio-Systemics

The convergence of nanotechnology, ecological science, biotechnology, information technology and cognitive sciences, and their prospective impacts on materials science, the managementof public systems for bio-health, ecoand food system integrity and disease mitigation.

in Canada: S&T Foresight

http://agora.scitech.gc.ca/ev.php?URL_ID=1468&URL_DO=DO_TOPIC&URL_SECTION=201&reload=1110748177

Analyses, scénarios surl’horizon 2025


http://www.nanotec.org.uk/Weblinks.htm

Converging Technologies for a Diverse Europe 14-15 September 2004 | Brussels, Belgiumhttp://europa.eu.int/comm/research/conferences/2004/ntw/index_en.html

Economic and Social Research Council (UK)The social and economic challenges of nanotechnologyhttp://www.esrc.ac.uk/ESRCContent/DownloadDocs/Nanotechnology.pdf

Some selected reading ….

………


Ce qui se conçoit complexene s’énonce pas toujours clairement,

et les mots pour le diren’arrivent pas aisément.

Edgar MorinLa méthode, 4: les idées, leur habitat, leurs mœurs, leur organisationEdition du Seuil, 1991


Ray Kurzweil Bill Joy

On the Singularity, 2002

http://www.kurzweilai.net/meme/frame.html?main=/articles/art0408.html

Why the future doesn't need usWired, April 2000 The Age of Spiritual Machines, 1999

http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/8.04/joy.html

QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressorare needed to see this picture.

http://www.crnano.org/index.html

http://www.kurzweilai.net/


WHAT DO YOU BELIEVE IS TRUE EVEN THOUGH YOU CANNOT PROVE IT?http://www.edge.org/q2005/q05_print.html

Ainsi le service le plus important qu'ils aient à rendre

http://sami.is.free.fr/Oeuvres/diderot_nature.html

Pensées sur l’interprétation de la natureaux jeunes gens qui se disposent à l’étude de la philosophie naturelleDiderot, 1753

Science and the Realm of Beliefs

à ceux qu'ils initient à la philosophie expérimentale, c'est bien moins de les instruire du procédé et du résultat, que de faire passer en eux cet esprit de divination par lequel on subodore, pour ainsi dire, des procédés inconnus, des expériences nouvelles, des résultats ignorés.


8 pixels costMicrosoft millions

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/msid-823975,curpg-1.cms

August 23, 2004

When coloring in 800,000 pixels on a map of India, Microsoft colored eight of them a different shade of green to represent the disputed Kashmiri territory. The difference in greens meant Kashmir was shown as non-Indian, and the product was promptly banned in India. Microsoft was left to recall all 200,000 copies.

The effect

robot crashes on Mars: $125 Mnew Ariane 5 explodes: $ 1 B


21 September 2004Microsoft server crash nearly causes 800-plane pile-up

http://www.techworld.com/opsys/news/index.cfm?NewsID=2275

The FAA server likely ran into a known design flaw which affects all versions of Windows including WinXP and Windows Server 2003. The GetTickCount Win32 API function overflows a 32-bit DWORD after 49.7 days. Therefore, the time will wrap around to zero if the system is run continuously for 49.7 days.

December 25, 2004 Airline Cancels 1,100 Flights After Computer Crash

Some 30,000 travelers in 118 cities were affected. The computer failurethat grounded Comair’s entire fleet over the Christmas weekend and stranded thousands of travelers was due to creaky software that couldn't count higher than 32,768.

http://www.informationweek.com/story/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=56700162&tid=5979%2C5989

Powerful, but brittle systems (of systems)


Nanosystems

Molecular machinery, manufacturing, and computation

Eric Drexler (1992)

Engines of Creation The Coming Era of NanotechnologyK. Eric Drexler (1986)

http://www.foresight.org/EOC/index.html

© Denis Poussart 2005 http://www.nano.gov/nni04_budget_supplement.pdf

- Nanostructure material- Nanoscale manufacturing- Nanoscale Instrumentation- Nano-electronics, photonics, magnetics- Healthcare, diagnostics- Energy conversion & storage- Microcraft & robotics- Nanoprocesses for environment

Etats-Unis: Grands défis nano

56 pages


W. Europe ~ 650

Japan ~ 800

USA (849 in 2004) 774

Other ~ 800

Total (US$M)% of 1997

3,024 700%

http://www.nano.gov/html/res/IntlFundingRoco.htm

Government Nanotechnology Funding (2003)

National Institute of Nanotechnology in Edmonton granted $80 million funding for five years.

nano is (already) BIG


An autonomous molecular computer

Shapiro's research group is known for having developed the world's smallest biological computing device, a DNA computer produced in 2002. Now it has puttogether a similar computer that releases a cancer-fighting drug if the correct conditions are met. The first part of the computer consists of short DNA strands that bind to four varieties of messenger RNA produced by genes involved in a specific cancer. The second component analyzes whether all four genes are abnormally active. If so, it triggers a third component to release a therapeutic piece of DNA that binds to a cancer gene to suppress it. The research groupdemonstrated the computer in test tubes, with messenger RNA levels adjusted by hand. Although such DNA computers could be decades from application in patients,it is a stunning proof of principle for a technology that might one day be used fo biochemical sensing and genetic engineering as well as for medical diagnosis and treatment.

2004 Scientific American 50 Research Leaders Citation

November 11, 2004

Ehud Shapiro et al. Weizmann Institute of ScienceNature, 429, 423-429, 2004

for logical control of gene expression

http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?articleID=000A2AD8-667F-1189-A67F83414B7FFE9F


http://www.kurzweilai.net/meme/frame.html?main=/articles/art0604.html

http://pubs.acs.org/cen/coverstory/8148/8148counterpoint.html

Chemical & Engineering News, Dec. 1, 2003

http://iranscope.ghandchi.com/Anthology/KurzweilDrexler.htm

Drexler and Smalley Debate on Molecular Assembly


http://www.barrettresearch.ca/teaching/nanotechnology/nano03.htm

Smaller is more:

There is still a huge way to go !

Year

100 X1000 X

yet,

in linear scale


Finding causes in history is certainly necessary,apparently simple, and almost impossible

Michael Stanford

The study of history is a study of causesEdward Hallett Carr

Rem viderunt, causam non videruntSt. Augustine,

Contra Pelagium, ca 420 A.D.

WHY is it happening?

The further backward you look, the further forward you can see

Winston Churchill

http://www.history-ontheweb.co.uk/concepts/concept71_causation.htm

© denis poussart 2005 denis poussart université laval [email protected] challenges promises...

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