Elections: The voice of the people. › Frequently interpreted as voters

acceptance or rejection of a party platform.› Affected by many factors and give only

broad indications of public opinion.

Interest Groups: Private organizations whose members share certain views and work to shape public policy.› Pressure government officials to shape

public policy in specific ways.› Difficult to determine how many citizens

support such groups and how strongly they hold these views.

Media› Often said to “mirror” public opinion.› Not accurate “mirrors” because they may

reflect only a vocal minority.

Personal Contracts› Political leaders try to argue public

opinions by addressing groups.› Reading mail, visiting home districts, etc. › Difficult to read public opinion.

Polls: Best measure of public opinion› Collect info about public opinion by asking

people questions.

Polls that sought to read the public’s mind by asking the same question of a large number of people. › Quantity over Quality › Does not guarantee accurate cross section

of population.

Literary Digest mailed postcard ballots to more than 10 million people and received answers from more than 2 million.

Compiled their list from automobile registries and telephone directories

Asked them to predict the outcome of the upcoming election between Gov. Alfred Landon (Rep) and FDR (Dem).

The results said that Gov. Landon would easily defeat FDR.

Actually, FDR ended up defeating Landon with more than 60%of the popular vote.

What do you think happened? Why were the results so far off?

Digest failed to consider that at the time of the election, the U.S. was in the middle of a depression and millions could not afford cars or their own telephone.

Failed to reach the poor, unemployed, blue collar workers and most of the ethnic minorities.

These were the people Roosevelt and the Democrats drew their greatest supporters.

Step 1: Define the Universe› Figure out which groups should be polled.

Step 2: Construct a sample (a slice of the total universe)› Random samples are drawn based on the law of

probability. Ex. Taking every 5th person on a list › Quota Sample: a sample deliberately

constructed to reflect several of the major characteristics of a given universe. 17.5% of a universe is Af. Am. so, quota sample

will have 17.5% Af. Am. 51.3% is female, so quota sample will have

51.3%women.

Step 3: Prepare Valid Questions› Wording can affect the reliability of any

poll.› Don’t use “loaded” emotionally charged

words or terms that are difficult to understand.

› Do not word questions in such a way that shapes answer

Step 4: Conduct Interviews› Face to face, by mail, by phone, etc. › Most use proper techniques to avoid

invalid results.

Step 5: Analyze and Report Findings› Computers help pollsters tabulate and

interpret results.