© fraunhofer isi astra – assessment of transport strategies etis+ workshop; june, 23 rd 2010,...
TRANSCRIPT
© Fraunhofer ISI
ASTRA – Assessment of Transport Strategies
ETIS+ Workshop; June, 23rd 2010, Brussels
Dr. Michael Krail, Fraunhofer-ISI
ASTRA – Assessment of Transport Strategies
Car_Fleet_CCESPurchase_Cars_CC_ES Car_Scrappage_CC_ES
Registration_New_CarsTotal
Minimum_Replacement_Cars+
Car_Fleet_Total
+
+
Car_Scrappage_Total
+
+
Delta_Income_per_AdultDelta_PopulationDelta_Variable_Costs
- ++
New_Cars_CC+
Share_New_Cars_CC
New_Cars_CC_ES
+
+
Diffusion_New_ES
+
Car_Ownership
+
-
Consumption_for_New_Cars
Car_Scrappage_Ratio
+
+
Car_Prices_CC_ES
+
Input MAC_con
Input ENV_car
Output POP
Output MAC_con
Delta_Car_Prices-
Output POLES
+
Delta_Population_Density
+
Technology Share
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ASTRA – Assessment of Transport Strategies
Overview on ASTRA: key parameters
ASTRA is an integrated assessment model based on System Dynamics and implemented with Vensim
ASTRA consists of a system of integrated models each with different purpose
Spatial coverage: EU27 plus Norway and Switzerland, trade with 12 world regions
Time horizon: 1990 – 2050 (calibration period 1990 – 2003/2006) Original purpose of ASTRA (1997): strategic assessment of EU
transport policies. "Strategic" meant long-term and integrated
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ASTRA – Assessment of Transport Strategies
Overview on ASTRA: structure
POP = Population Module
MAC = Macroeconomics Module
REM = Regional Economics Module
FOT = Foreign Trade Module
TRA = Transport Module
VFT = Vehicle Fleet Module
ENV = Environment Module
WEM = Welfare Measurement Module
INF = Infrastructure Module
Abbreviations for 9 Modules:
Key features:
Integrated models
System Dynamics (Vensim)
27 EU countries (+ NO, CH)
76 zones
25 economic sectors
>20000 OD flows (P, F)
8 modes (P+F)
800 MB of output data
Time horizon 2050
POP
MAC
FOT
REM
TRA
WEM
ENV
VFT
Potential Labour Force Population Structure
Dis
posa
ble
Inco
me
Con
sum
ptio
n, I
nves
tmen
t in
Veh
icle
s, V
AT
GDP, (Un -)Employment, Sectoral Output
Population Change
VK
T
Goods-Flows-
Car
Fle
et
Fuel Price
GDP, Productivity
Exports, Imports
Transport Expenditure, Performance, Time
Fuel Tax Revenue, VAT
GDP, Employment, ....
Fue
l
Pri
ce
Emissions, Noise,Accidents
Transport Cost, Time
Transport Demand
Generalized Cost
Fleet Structure
INF
Investment
TRA Flows
TRA Time
TRA Time
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ASTRA – Assessment of Transport Strategies
Overview on ASTRA: transport modes and vehicle fleets
Passenger modes: slow, car, bus, rail, air Freight modes: truck (LDV, HDV), rail, ship Road fleet models with 1-year age cohorts Car fleet: gasoline (<1.4l, 1.4-2.0l, >2.0l), diesel (<2.0l, >2.0l), CNG,
LPG, hybrid (1st generation), bioethanol, electric, hydrogen fuel cell, up to 9 emission standards
Heavy duty vehicle fleet: <12ton gross vehicle weight, >12ton, up to 8 emission standards
Light duty vehicle fleet: gasoline, diesel, up to 8 emission standards Train, ship, air: technical characteristics by trip purpose Driving situations: passenger: 5, freight: 4
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ASTRA – Assessment of Transport Strategies
ASTRA applications
Transport policy assessment: pricing, taxation, TEN infrastructure, emissions and efficiency standards, Cost-benefit-analysis of transport projects (ASTRA, TIPMAC, IASON, DESIRE, REVENUE, ASSESS)
Technology and scenario analysis: technology and employment policy, hydrogen technology strategy, integrated energy and transport scenarios, energy and transport policy (IPTS-Employment Study, STEPs, TRIAS, MATISSE, HOP!, iTREN-2030, GHG-TransPoRD)
Renewables policy assessment: subsidies, feed-in tarifs, investment strategies (PROGRESS, Employ-RES, Employ-RES-D)
Climate policy assessment: transport policy, EU-ETS, energy scenarios, investment strategies, cost implications (ASTRA, ADAM, Policy scenarios for climate protection IV and V, IKEP-Makro)
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ASTRA – Assessment of Transport Strategies
Advantages and drawbacks of ASTRA
Advantages Integrated analysis considering feedbacks and rebound effects Flexibility of policy implementation (stepwise, varying intensity,
packaging, variety of measures) Time is explicitely modelled (points of time and delays matter!) Long-term time horizon (2050) Not grounded on mainstream economic theory (no equilibrium
modeling)
Drawbacks So far, level of detail not sufficient for regional analysis below country
level Increase of model size due to increase of integrated purposes handled
by ASTRA
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ASTRA – Assessment of Transport Strategies
Input parameters and references
Input parameters Calibration data or trends to which parts of model are adapted (e.g.
population) Exogenous parameters: (labour productivity), (consumption split),
energy prices, (emission factors)
References EUROSTAT online database (various themes) OECD and COMEXT trade statistics EC Energy and Transport in Figures and related sources Network model data on transport (e.g. SCENES, VACLAV,
TRANSTOOLS) Swiss/German handbook on emission factors, MEET project, COPERT
for speed adaptations
Specific questions
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ASTRA – Assessment of Transport Strategies
ASTRA: history, milestones and projects
1997 Start of model development, 2000 completed 2001 Structural adaptation to 15 countries, 25 sectors 2003 Extension to 29 countries 2005-2007 Inclusion of renewable energy models, consolidation
and linkage with energy models 2007-2010 Linkage with bottom-up models for climate policy
assessment, economic assessment of impacts of high oil prices, employment impact of renewable energy policy
Projects: ASTRA, IPTS-Employment Study, ASTRA-Italy, DESIRE, TIPMAC, IASON, SAT, LOTSE, REVENUE, STEPs, TRANS- TOOLS, TRIAS, Renewable Energies, MATISSE, ADAM, Policy Scenarios for Climate Protection , HOP!, KlimInvest, iTREN- 2030, EMPLOY-RES, IKEP-Makro, GHG-TransPoRD
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ASTRA – Assessment of Transport Strategies
iTREN-2030: Impacts of Economic Crisis on transport (Integrated Scenario)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
[bill
ion
pkm
]Motorised passenger surface transport demand INT vs REF
Diff to REF
Train
Bus
Car
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
[Bio
tkm
]
Domestic freight tkm by mode in EU27
IWW
Ship
Train
Truck
Van
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ASTRA – Assessment of Transport Strategies
iTREN-2030: car technology diffusion
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
[Mill
ion
Veh
icle
s]EU27 car fleet by technology
Hydrogen
Bioethanol
Electric
Hybrid
LPG
CNG
Diesel
Gasoline
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ASTRA – Assessment of Transport Strategies
Policy Scenarios for Climate Protection IV: Contribution to CO2 reductions by single transport measures
CO2-savings by measures of Climate Policy scenario [Mt CO2]
-100
-90
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Introduction kerosene tax(30.2 ct/l)
Air transport in EU-ETS
Extension HGV km-charge
CO2 differentiated circulationtax
Low resistance types /lubricants
Increase of biofuel quotas
Doubling of HGV user costs
Diesel tax raised to gasolinetax (65.4 ct/l)
Mandatory CO2 emissionlimits cars (2012: 130 g/km)
Abolishment commutingsubsidyExample
application
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ASTRA – Assessment of Transport Strategies
Further information on recent ASTRA results
Policy scenarios for climate protection IV: completed March 2007, also reporting to UNFFCC (German report for download at German EPA, only summary in English: www.umweltdaten.de/publikationen/fpdf-l/3361.pdf)
TRIAS: www.isi.fraunhofer.de/TRIAS HOP: www.hop-project.eu iTREN-2030: www.isi.fraunhofer.de/projects/iTREN-2030
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ASTRA – Assessment of Transport StrategiesASTRA – Assessment of Transport Strategies
Dr. Michael KrailFraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation
ResearchKarlsruhe, Germany
Email: [email protected].: +49 – (0)721 6089 429
Thank you for your attention!
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ASTRA – Assessment of Transport Strategies
ASTRA model:Overview of spatial representation
At maxiumum four functional zones per country classified by settlement density:
Metropolitan zoneHigh density zoneMedium density zoneLow density zone
At maxiumum four functional zones per country classified by settlement density:
Metropolitan zoneHigh density zoneMedium density zoneLow density zone
Spatial disaggregation for EU29 countries:
14 EU15 countries (B+L) each with 4 functional zones12 new EU member states plus Swi +
Norwith 1-2 functional zones
Spatial disaggregation for EU29 countries:
14 EU15 countries (B+L) each with 4 functional zones12 new EU member states plus Swi +
Norwith 1-2 functional zones
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ASTRA – Assessment of Transport Strategies
Passenger transport model
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ASTRA socio-economic framework
Population
EmploymentTransportgeneration
Transportdistribution
Car fleet bycar typesIncome
Generalizedcost O/D
Generalizedcost modes
Modal-split
GDPInfrastructureCapacity
Travel time
Transport demand
Occupancyrates
InfrastructureInvestment
Passenger transport model
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ASTRA – Assessment of Transport Strategies
Freight transport model
Seite 16
ASTRA socio-economic framework
Sectoral output
Trade flows
National transportgeneration
Transportdistribution
Generalizedcost O/D
Generalizedcost modes
Modal-split
GDPInfrastructureCapacity
Travel time
Transport demand
Load factors
InfrastructureInvestment
Freight transport modelValue-to-volume ratios
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ASTRA – Assessment of Transport Strategies
Car fleet and car choice model
Seite 17
ASTRA socio-economic framework
IncomeScrappedcars
Existing car fleetby age, by technology,by emission stand.
Ageing ofcar fleetGDP
Filling stationnetwork
Purchase ofnew cars
Car pricesInfrastructureInvestment
Car fleet and car choice model
Fuel price
Car taxesChoice ofnew cars
Policy andnew technologies
Population Car-ownership
Seite 18 © Fraunhofer ISI
ASTRA – Assessment of Transport Strategies
ASTRA structure of economic modules
18
GDP Supply Side
Final Demand(by sector)
GDP Demand Side
GDP> <
Investment
Consumption
Trade Balance
Gov. consum.Import
Export
Potential Output(national)
Capital Stock
TFP
Labour Supply
(Resource Inp.)
Employment
Population
Private Cap.
Public Cap.
Income
Net national product
Depreciation
Subsidies
Indirect taxes National income
Disposable income
Fuel taxes
Other taxes
Value-added tax
Transfers
Direct taxes
Social contrib.
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ASTRA – Assessment of Transport Strategies
PSz-IV: Climate Policy scenario described by list of planned policy measures
• Complete abolishment of commuting subsidy (tax exemption)• Equal taxation of gasoline and diesel fuel i.e. increase of diesel fuel
tax• Strengthening of voluntary agreement with ACEA to reach in 2012:
130 g CO2 /km and in 2030: 100 g CO2 /km of average fleet in Germany
• Inclusion of air transport in EU-ETS gradually but fully until 2013• Introduction of kerosene tax in 2013 (30.2 ct/l)• Extension of HGV charge on total long distance road network• Doubling of HGV user cost until 2015• 100% market penetration of low rolling resistance tyres and highly
fluid oils• Increase of mandatory biofuel quotas: 2020: 12.5 % 2030: 25%