-kardar poverty_-final_presentation

8/7/2019 -Kardar Poverty_-Final_Presentation

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Regional Inequalities

By Shahid Kardar 24 April, 2008


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IntroductionAlthough inter provincial disparities withrespect to household poverty marginal, notas sharp as say in India, but humandevelopment indicators distinctly better inPunjab

Does data capture recent changes ?


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Incidence of Poverty by Province

Source: Cheema, Iftikhar Ahmad. A Profile of Poverty in Pakistan


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Incidence of Poverty & Contribution to Total

Poverty by Province, 2001

Source: Cheema, Iftikhar Ahmad. A Profile of Poverty in Pakistan


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Deprivation Level Across Provinces 2004-05

(% of Districts)

Source : Social Policy & Development Center 2007

Range Punjab Sindh NWFP Balochistan

Up to 50 29 19 4 4

Above 50 71 81 96 96


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Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD)T en Lowest Deprived Districts of Pakistan

MID 2005 MID 1998 Annual Rate of change (%)

Karachi 20.9 24.6 -2.3

Lahor e 29.2 34.3 -2.3

Guj ranwala 38.5 45.1 -2.2

Sialk ot 40.9 40.3 .2

R awal pindi 41.4 41.0 .1

Guj rat 42.7 46.5 -1.2

Faisala bad 44.2 45.6 -.4

Peshawar 44.2 50.8 -2.0

Sukk ur 44.5 58.0 -3.7

Quett a 46.0 46.0 .0Source:Jamal,Haroon and Amir Jahan Khan. Indices of Multiple Deprivations 2005.


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Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) ( Contd.)

T en Highest Deprived Districts of PakistanIMD 2005 IMD 1998 Annual Rate of

change (%)

K ohistan 71.7 83.0 -2.1

Khuzdar 72.8.0 79.0 -1.1Qilla Abdullah 73.9 76.1 -.4

Jhal Magsi 74.7 79.2 -.8

Panjgur 75.6 79.2 -.7

Qilla Saif ullah 76.8 76.2 .1Zhob 77.1 79.3 -.4

Kharan 77.6 82.9 -.9

Awaran 79.8 80.4 -.1

Mu sakh el 82.8 89.1 -1.0Source:Jamal,Haroon and Amir Jahan Khan. Indices of Multiple Deprivations 2005.


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Education

Adult Literacy Rate 10 yrs & Older (%)

Punjab Sindh NWFP Balochistan

2006-07 58 55 47 42

1998-99 46 51 37 36

Source : Data compiled from PIHS & PSLM


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E ducation ( Contd.)

Population that has Completed Primary Level Education orHigher (%)


2006-07 49 47 38 29

1998-99 38 41 21 25



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NER at the Primary Level , age 5-9 &excluding katchi class (%)


2006-07 62 50 49 41

1998-99 44 41 39 36

NER at the Middle School Level , age 11-13 (%)


2006-07 34 31 31 19

1998-99 30 29 21 16

NER at the Matric level, age 13-14 (%)


2006-07 11 10 6 5

1998-99 9 12 4 6

E ducation (Contd.)



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H ealth IndicatorsFully Immunized Children under 12-23 months (%)

Year Punjab Sindh NWFP Balochistan

2005-06 58 32 47 32

1998-99 39 17 38 10



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H ealth Indicators ( Contd.)Pre natal Consultations (%)

Y ear Punjab Sindh NWFP Balochistan

2005-06 53 56 43 36

1998-99 33 37 22 18



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Main Source of Drinking Water (%)

2006-07 Punjab Sindh NWFP

Balochistan

T ap water 29 47 44 37

Hand pump 35 32 116

Moto r pump 31 8 9 3

Du g well 2 4 14 16

Other 3 10 22 38

1998-99 Punjab Sindh NWFPBalochista

T ap wa ter 20 32 38 25

Hand pump 56 35 92

Moto r pump 19 6 18 6

Du g well 3 8 18 38

Other 2 18 24 28

H ousing, Water Supply & Sanitation



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Real per capita household expenditure of Rural poor households - Punjab.

Real per capita household expenditure of RuralHouseholds- Punjab.

Real per capita household expenditure of RuralHouseholds - Sindh.

Real per capita household expenditure of RuralHouseholds- Sindh.

Source : World Bank. Pakistan Promoting Rural Growth and Poverty Reduction


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Real per capita household expenditure of RuralHouseholds- NWFP

Real per capita household expenditure of RuralHouseholds- NWFP

Real per capita household expenditure of RuralHouseholds- Balochistan

Real per capita household expenditure of RuralHouseholds- Balochistan



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Annual non farm Income Shares by E xpenditure Quintiles in Rural Pakistan in(2001-02 Rs)



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Quality of, & Access to Infrastructure



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F irms Identifying Various Investment Climate as Constraint (%)



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Access to Markets



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Major Rural & Small Town Investment Climate Constraints



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Widening Differentials

Sharp widening of Differentials,especially in last 5-6 years

Reasons for growing disparities advantage to Punjab:

a. Transfers under N F C Award continue to favour it;

b. No Coalition Government & better qualitygovernance;

c. More competent bureaucracy;


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Widening Differentials (Contd.)

d. Nature of growth-more skill intensive;financial sector, telecommunications, oil& gas, assemblers of motor cars, motor cycles and tractors and associated

vendor industry;

e. H istorical advantage in education andskill development;

f. TE VTA and PVTC better at developmentof low level skills (construction sector,computer operators, electricians,mechanics, welders, plumbers etc.)


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Managerial and Technical skilldevelopment in Private institutions for higher education LUMS, LS E , BNU, F CCollege and GCU, providing privatesector with managerial and related skills.

Better public sector institutions Quaid-e-Azam University, Punjab University,Medical Colleges (K E MC, FJ , AllamaIqbal,Nishtar) E ngineering Universities(UE T, NUST and Cadet Colleges)


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d. Water availability through better managementof irrigation systems;

e. Credit to farmers by formal banking system;

f. More equitable land holdings, especially incentral Punjab; and

g. Overall E conomic Growth.


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Improved Infrastructure:a) 26,000 km of roads in 1999-2000, now

than 70,000km;b)New industrial estates , for example:

Sundar and upgrading of existing ones.

Shifting of investment from Sindh intoPunjab after disturbances in Karachi(process started in late 1980s)


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Due to more reform mindedgovernments since the late 1990sdonors keen to engage and providefunding (>than Rs.10 billion a year for last 3-4 years)

Disparity gap to increase, especiallyas agricultural subsidies get phasedout internationally under WTO


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Recommendations

Revise Constitution to give provincescontrol over resources below the ground-oil and gas and major mineralsRevise N F C Award to also factor in area(for minimum cost of service provision),backwardness, revenue collectionF iscal & administrative decentralizationF ocused education, technical training &infrastructure dev.programmes for NW F P& Balochistan- with fiscal incentives

-kardar poverty_-final_presentation

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