Leveraging National Communications to integrate climate policy into

development plans in Europe and CIS

Sub-regional workshop for GEF Focal Points Europe and CISDubrovnik, Croatia, 11-13 February 2009

Outline of Presentation

Summary of some key climate threats in the region

National Communications role

Integrating climate change into development priorities

Priorities in National Communications for GEF programming

UNDP-GEF Adaptation 3

Food Security

Poverty

Now 2020-50s 2100s5% rainfall decline in southern belt of ECIS per decade

40% of irrigation water demand not met in average year; increases to 70% in dry years and drought season (in south Macedonia)

Livelihoods affected by more droughts and crop failures

Significant decline in annual discharge and runoff formation across the region

Irrigation will begin to fail in Central Asia;spring yield will decrease at least 27%

Regional and sub-national disparities and increased rural poverty

Surface water resources in most basins of Kazakhstan will decrease 9-29%

Production of water-intensive crops (e.g. cotton) in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan will fail

Poor population impacted by more frequent climate-related disasters

Water

Climate change poses serious risks in the region

UNDP-GEF Adaptation 4

Sea level

Economy

Now 2020-50s 2100sDramatic glacier retreats already observed in Pamir, Ala-Too and Caucasus

Frequency and intensity of floods on Danube increased

Rise in Black Sea level from previous century is detected at a rate of 2.5mm/yr

~3-8% GDP loss in South East Europe and Central Asia

In Tajikistan alone, thousands of glaciers will disappear by 2050

Glacial lake outbursts will intensify flood-related disasters

Absolute increment of sea level rise on the Georgian coast of Black will be 0.2m

Economic losses from floods, landslides and droughts will increase across the region

Contribution to runoff formation will fall 15-30% as result of snow melt in parts of Uzbekistan

Fergana Valley foothills will become intensive mudslide zones

Low-lying coastal areas of the Black Sea and Adriatic inundated ~20%

Economic losses from damage to coastal infrastructure and settlements

Disasters

Climate change poses serious risks in the region

Historic mortality from floods highest in Moldova, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan

Economic losses from flooding as proportion of GDP historically highest in Turkey, Western Kazakhstan, parts of Russia, Ukraine, Bulgaria, Serbia, Belarus, Romania, Albania, and Macedonia

Human and economic losses

Armenia: water reserves in snow have decreased 5-10%

Azerbaijan: seasonal snow line has risen from 1,300-1,500m to 1,800-2,000m; subsequently, water resources will be reduced by 5.7–7.7km3

Macedonia: average discharge will decrease by 10-20% in next 50 years

Kazakhstan: surface water resources in most basins will fall 9-29% in 50-100 years

Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan: water resources must dramatically increase to sustain current level of productivity of cotton and cereals (up to 70%).

Albania: total runoff formation already down 10%; will decrease 30% by mid-century

Water Stress

Initial National Communications was important in Initial National Communications was important in bringing attention to CC issues in countries, but bringing attention to CC issues in countries, but had some limitations:had some limitations:

• Focused on Convention reporting – strategic Focused on Convention reporting – strategic opportunities opportunities for feeding into national development not fully for feeding into national development not fully exploitedexploited

• Conducted by technical experts, but limited participation Conducted by technical experts, but limited participation of of stakeholders from public and private sectorsstakeholders from public and private sectors

• Investigation academic in nature – limited relevance to Investigation academic in nature – limited relevance to policy policy decision (for instance for climate risk managementdecision (for instance for climate risk management))

Second National Communications (SNC): A second opportunity

Transforming the NC from a mere reporting process to a strategic and policy support tool

Producing the SNC document not the end point

SNC should be a vehicle to facilitate:SNC should be a vehicle to facilitate:

– Institutionalization of climate change Institutionalization of climate change responsesresponses

– Production of knowledge and information on Production of knowledge and information on the basis of national priorities the basis of national priorities

– Mechanism for a policy dialogue to address Mechanism for a policy dialogue to address climate change concernsclimate change concerns

– Basis for mainstreaming climate change into Basis for mainstreaming climate change into national/sectoral planning processes and national/sectoral planning processes and development prioritiesdevelopment priorities

Develop a strategy to address policy relevant issues in Develop a strategy to address policy relevant issues in

the different SNC componentsthe different SNC components

Establish and consolidate a system for Establish and consolidate a system for institutional institutional coordination and political buy-incoordination and political buy-in

Promote policy-oriented studies to expand the Promote policy-oriented studies to expand the traditional technical assessmenttraditional technical assessment

Guide technical teams to leverage the results of Guide technical teams to leverage the results of mitigation and Vulnerability and adaptation (V&A) studies for mitigation and Vulnerability and adaptation (V&A) studies for project formulation and implementation, as well as fundraisingproject formulation and implementation, as well as fundraising

Making SNC more policy-relevant

• Objective of SNC should seek to facilitate policy changes

• Outcomes of the SNC process to highlight the policy strategies in the short and long terms

• SNC process should identify opportunities for strengthening SNC process should identify opportunities for strengthening technical and institutional capacitiestechnical and institutional capacities

Ways to facilitate the integration of the NC process into government agendas – sustainability and appropriation

Scope of workScope of workScope of current or future NCs may need to be revisited to ensure linkage with Scope of current or future NCs may need to be revisited to ensure linkage with development planningdevelopment planning

• Ensuring consistency of V&A and mitigation with development Ensuring consistency of V&A and mitigation with development needs (i.e., SNC to focus on assessments conducive to needs (i.e., SNC to focus on assessments conducive to influence decision making)influence decision making)

• Ensuring scope of V&A and mitigation studies addresses policy Ensuring scope of V&A and mitigation studies addresses policy questionsquestions

• Assessing practices and trends that enhance vulnerability and Assessing practices and trends that enhance vulnerability and increase GHG emissions increase GHG emissions

• Conversely, studies may be driven by policy changes needs to Conversely, studies may be driven by policy changes needs to address both development and adaptation/mitigationaddress both development and adaptation/mitigation

Engaging StakeholdersEngaging StakeholdersDesign a strategy for stakeholders engagement through Design a strategy for stakeholders engagement through the SNC process and beyondthe SNC process and beyond

• Involve and seek inputs from relevant government institutionsInvolve and seek inputs from relevant government institutions

• Consultations initiated in SNC proposals to be enhanced and Consultations initiated in SNC proposals to be enhanced and consolidatedconsolidated

• Stakeholders process to be documented, including follow-up Stakeholders process to be documented, including follow-up needed to keep adequate engagementneeded to keep adequate engagement

• Strategy for results appropriation, with recommendations to Strategy for results appropriation, with recommendations to facilitate adoption of resultsfacilitate adoption of results

• Emphasizing socio-economics assessments as a key element Emphasizing socio-economics assessments as a key element of adaptation and mitigation assessmentsof adaptation and mitigation assessments

UNDP-GEF Adaptation 14

1. National Communications:

process and outputs

V&A and mitigation priorities identified

2. Adaptation Policy Framework and mitigation plans

Strategies and Projects Identified

3. Adaptation Financing, carbon financing

Adaptation and mitigation policies

adopted

Leveraging National Communications - Summary

Integration into national/sectoral

plans

Partnerships,Projects (GEF,

bilateral, multilateral)National Budgeting

Stakeholders, institutional coordination

Monitoring and evaluation

Discussions

What role can GEF Focal Points play in linking priorities reflected in National Communications with GEF programming at the country level?