> shares in cb cibank ad at the amount of bgn 29 million ......yields on eur-denominated govt...
TRANSCRIPT
FEBRUARY 2009 No 3 / 2009
> Shares in CB CIbank AD at the amount of BGN 29
million changed hands
DEBT MARKET
Benchmark yield curves in the euro area 02.02.2009 and 04.03.2009
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
o/ndepo
1wdepo
1mdepo
3m bill
12m bill
3ybond
5ybond
7ybond
10ybond
instrument
annu
al y
ield
(%) 02.02.2009
04.03.2009
Benchmark yield curves in Bulgaria 02.02.2009 and 04.03.2009
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
o/ndepo
1wdepo
1mdepo
3m bill
12m bill
3ybond
5ybond
7ybond
10ybond
instrument
annu
al y
ield
(%) 02.02.2009
04.03.2009
Bulgaria and euro area benchmark yield curves 04.03.2009
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
o/ndepo
1wdepo
1mdepo
3m bill
12m bill
3ybond
5ybond
7ybond
10ybond
instrument
annu
al y
ield
(%)
SOFImid
Bulgaria
euro area
Middle of Sofibid and Sofibor
2
Yields on EUR-denominated govt securities in Bulgaria and on the euro area curve 04.03.2009
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
3m bill
12m bill
2ybond
3ybond
4ybond
5ybond
6ybond
7ybond
8ybond
9ybond
10ybond
15ybond
instrument
annu
al y
ield
(%) BG domestic
BG global
euro area
Sofibor and 3M T-bill issuance, January - February 2009 (%)
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
05.01
10.01
15.01
20.01
25.01
30.01
04.02
09.02
14.02
19.02
24.02
3M Sofibid 3M Sofibor 3M T-bill Leonia BIR
No issuance of 3M government securities in February
Vladimir Tsonchev
(+359 2) 9145 1712 1. MONEY MARKET
In February the interbank money market monthly volume
decreased by 20.5 per cent below January to BGN 7565.3
million, resulting from a 26.6 per cent drop in the deposit
lending deals volume to BGN 6778,9 million. In repo deals
there was almost threefold increase to BGN 786.4 million.
In February the total monthly volume of term transactions
in Euromoney market dealing increased compared to
3
January, in depo deals volume by 14.2 per cent to BGN
4560.7 million, and in repo deals by 40.8 per cent to BGN
501.3 million.
The average daily excess reserves in February decreased
to BGN 155160 thousand after BGN 321848 thousand in
January. In 3 calendar days altogether (on 2nd, 3rd and
4th) of the month there was relative resource shortage
(negative excess reserves).
Interbank money market and excess reserves, February 2009 (BGN mln)
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
02.02
03.02
04.02
05.02
06.02
09.02
10.02
11.02
12.02
13.02
16.02
17.02
18.02
19.02
20.02
23.02
24.02
25.02
26.02
27.02
money market excess reserves
Liquidity in the banking system is influenced every month
by monetary flows through government securities (bills
and bonds of the Ministry of Finance), and in February
there was a net inflow to banks of BGN 120.9 million as an
increase in resources. Pension transfers amounted to BGN
570.0 million as an increase in resources, BGN 5.0 million
more than in January.
4
Deposit deals, February 2009 (BGN mln)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
02.02
03.02
04.02
05.02
06.02
09.02
10.02
11.02
12.02
13.02
16.02
17.02
18.02
19.02
20.02
23.02
24.02
25.02
26.02
27.02
all deposit deals unsecured of which overnight secured
1.1. Interbank market: deposit lending and repo-
transactions
1.1.1. Cash market
Deposit lending maintains a prevailing share in the
interbank money market volume, which for February has
decreased to 89.6 per cent of interbank transactions, after
97.0 per cent in January. It is (commercial) banks’ main
tool for managing current daily liquidity.
1.1.1.1. Unsecured market
In February term unsecured deposit lending between
market participants amounted to BGN 6778.9 million, and
82.2 per cent of this (BGN 5572.0 million) were overnight
deals.
5
Unsecured deposit market, February 2009 (BGN mln)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
02.02
03.02
04.02
05.02
06.02
09.02
10.02
11.02
12.02
13.02
16.02
17.02
18.02
19.02
20.02
23.02
24.02
25.02
26.02
27.02
overnight other
Commercial banks, via overnight transactions, provide
additional resources at the beginning of every month for
the regulation of required minimum reserves and in the
middle of the month for clients’ payments.
LEONIA / EONIA
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
02.02
03.02
04.02
05.02
06.02
09.02
10.02
11.02
12.02
13.02
16.02
17.02
18.02
19.02
20.02
23.02
24.02
25.02
26.02
27.02
LEONIA EONIA
6
The monthly average for the overnight interest rate on
unsecured deposit lending is an annual 3.46%, 0.46
percentage points lower than the BIR (base interest rate,
effective from the first calendar day of each month and
equal to the simple average of the LEONIA reference rate
values from the previous month), 3.92% in February.
In February the
monthly average of
the LEONIA, a
reference rate
based on unsecured
overnight deposit
lending by 12
banks, decreased to
3.49%. Hence the
size of the BNB
base interest rate
for March 2009 is
3.49%.
1.1.1.2. Secured market
There is no secured deposit lending in February. The repo
deals’ share increased to 10.4 per cent of the total
transactions volume (BGN 786.4 million), after 3.0 per
cent in January.
1.1.2. Derivatives market
Not yet developed in the country.
MARKETS:
value in millions of BGN
equivalent in millions of EUR
value in millions of EUR
equivalent in millions of BGN
value in millions of USD
equivalent in millions of BGN
equivalent in millions of EUR
equivalent in millions of BGN
equivalent in millions of EUR
TYPES OF DEALS:
unsecured deposit deals 6778.9 3466.0 1847.8 3614.0 608.4 930.5 475.8 15.4 7.9
secured deposit deals - - - - - - - - -
repo* of Bulgarian govt securities 786.4 402.1 231.4 452.6 31.8 48.6 24.9 - -
outright purchases of short-term BGN Bulgarian govt securities - - - - - - - - -
outright purchases of long-term** BGN Bulgarian govt securities 17.2 8.8 - - - - - - -
outright purchases of long-term** forex Bulgarian govt securities 0.0 0.0 8.0 15.6 0.5 0.8 0.4 - -
* only the security purchase (money lending) leg** bonds of over 1 year in original maturity
Source: BNB, from commercial banks' daily reports
BULGARIAN INTERBANK MONEY MONEY MARKET AND EUROMONEY MARKET DEALS BETWEEN BULGARIAN BANKS, FEBRUARY 2009 (in millions of the respective currencies)
interbank money market euromoney market deals between Bulgarian banks
deals in BGN deals in EUR deals in USD deals in other currencies
1.2. Outright purchases of securities on the
secondary market
On the interbank secondary market for
government securities, the volume of outright
purchases in February amounted to BGN 17.2
million after BGN 45.7 million in January.
7
This month deals were again only in longer than 12M
securities.
On the Euromarket in February the total volume of
outright purchases of government securities reached BGN
16.4 million after BGN 10.8 million in January.
Outright deals in Bulgarian government securities, February 2009 (BGN mln)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
02.02
03.02
04.02
05.02
06.02
09.02
10.02
11.02
12.02
13.02
16.02
17.02
18.02
19.02
20.02
23.02
24.02
25.02
26.02
27.02
BGN-denominated securities up to 12M BGN-denominated securities over 12Mforex-denominated securities
Boris Malinchev
(+359 2) 9145 1704
2. CAPITAL MARKET
The following primary auction of government securities
was carried out by the Bulgarian National Bank as agent
of the Ministry of Finance in February:
- on 16 February for a batch of issue BG2030009117
(5Y treasury bonds) with maturity date 18 February
2014, at the amount of BGN 30 million and 4.45%
annual interest.
First batch of a new 5Y government bond issue
In February the Bulgarian Stock Exchange – Sofia (BSE-
Sofia) registered for trading on the unofficial market of
bonds the following corporate bond issues:
8
- 5Y bonds for EUR 10 million issued by Alianz Lease
Bulgaria AD - Sofia, interest: 6.25%, issue date:
27.08.2008, 6-month coupon payment, (stock-
exchange code 0ALA);
- 5Y bonds for EUR 3 million issued by Fair Play Agro
Fund AD - Sofia, interest: 6M EURIBOR + 2.80%,
issue date: 18.12.2007, 6-month coupon payment,
(stock-exchange code 0FAA);
- 2Y bonds for BGN 10 million issued by Puldin Lion
Group SIPC - Sofia, interest: 9.00%, issue date:
20.05.2008, 6-month coupon payment, (stock-
exchange code 5P6A).
The monthly secondary market stock-exchange turnover
of corporate bonds marked a fourfold decrease in
February amounting to BGN 2.4 million (a daily average of
BGN 0.1 million) compared to BGN 10.0 million in
January. Off-stock-exchange were concluded deals in
bonds at the amount of BGN 1.3 million.
BSE transactions with bonds, February 2009 (date T; BGN mln)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
02.02
03.02
04.02
05.02
06.02
09.02
10.02
11.02
12.02
13.02
16.02
17.02
18.02
19.02
20.02
23.02
24.02
25.02
26.02
27.02
off icial off icial OTC unoff icial unoff icial OTC
9
The prices of EUR-denominated 2013 globals kept staying
at the 102% mark, and of USD-denominated 2015 globals
went down below the 102% level.
On the secondary market the price of the compensation
instruments rose to about BGN 0.30 per item. The
compensation instruments market turnover diminished
seriously amounting to BGN 0.9 million compared with
BGN 2.8 million in January. Deals concluded off-stock-
exchange in February had insignificant amount.
BSE transactions with compensatories, February 2009 (date T; BGN thousand)
0
100
200
300
400
500
02.02
03.02
04.02
05.02
06.02
09.02
10.02
11.02
12.02
13.02
16.02
17.02
18.02
19.02
20.02
23.02
24.02
25.02
26.02
27.02
unoff icial unoff icial OTC privatis. (comp)
10
ASSET MARKETS
BG40 and SOFIX
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
05.01.09 12.01.09 19.01.09 26.01.09 02.02.09 09.02.09 16.02.09 23.02.09250
300
350
400
BG40 SOFIX (right scale)
Re a l Esta te Price s (BGN pe r sq. m .)
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
05.01.09 12.01.09 19.01.09 26.01.09 02.02.09 09.02.09 16.02.09 23.02.09
NET ASSETS:
Equity
GROSS ASSETS:
Real Estate
(National Statistical Institute – quarterly
data)
Gold (XAU/BGN)
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
1450
1500
1550
05.01.09 12.01.09 19.01.09 26.01.09 02.02.09 09.02.09 16.02.09 23.02.09
. Forex (USD/BGN)
1.40
1.45
1.50
1.55
1.60
05.01.09 12.01.09 19.01.09 26.01.09 02.02.09 09.02.09 16.02.09 23.02.09
Commodities
Forex
11
Boris Malinchev
(+359 2) 9145 1704 EQUITY CAPITAL (NET ASSETS)
BSE-SOFIA IPO MARKET (in millions of BGN) February 2009Issued securities Rights
Securities to be traded on: official market unofficial market official market unofficial market
unofficial market
DEALS: 0 0 0 0 0Source: BSE-Sofia daily reports
Equities Bonds
TRADE IN SECURITIES REGISTERED ON THE BSE-SOFIA: STOCK-EXCHANGE AND OTC TURNOVER (in millions of BGN) February 2009
Official Market of Equities
Unofficial Market of Equities
Market of compensation instruments
Market of Subscription Rights
Market of Collective Investment Schemes
(segments A,B) (segments A,B) municipal bonds
corporate bonds
municipal bonds
corporate bonds
of public companies
of non-public
companies
INSTRUMENTS AND DEALS:
BSE tradingTrade in primary instruments,of which: 9.8 38.8 16.8 0 0 0 2.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 0 0 regular deals 9.8 38.8 16.8 0 0 0 2.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 - - privatis. market deals (cash) 0 0 - - - - - - - - 0 0Privatis. market (compensative)* 0 0 - - - - - - - - 0 0INSTRUMENTS AND DEALS:
-OTC trading
Trade in primary instruments (block, registration, repo, tender purchases, redemption, etc.)** 7.1 20.4 5.4 0 0 0 1.3 0.0 0 0.5 - -Source: BSE-Sofia daily reports* Not included in the above totals** From 16 June 2008 off-stock-exchange trade is not reported by type of deals due to introduction of new trading platform XETRA
OTHER MARKETS Trade in equities not registered on the BSE-
Sofia
MARKETS BOND MARKETSMARKET OF SPECIAL
PURPOSE INVESTMENT COMPANIES
Official Market of Bonds Unofficial Market of Bonds
EQUITY MARKETS
The Bulgarian Stock Exchange – Sofia (BSE-Sofia)
monthly turnover in equities in February increased by
35%, amounting to BGN 65.4 million (a daily average of
BGN 3.3 million), compared to BGN 48.1 million in
January. This increase in turnover was result mainly of the
trade in shares of CB Cibank AD (BGN 29.3 million).
The turnover in deals concluded off-stock-exchange
(reported through the stock-exchange platform) was BGN
32.9 million.
12
BSE transactions with shares, February 2009 (date T; BGN mln)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
02.02
03.02
04.02
05.02
06.02
09.02
10.02
11.02
12.02
13.02
16.02
17.02
18.02
19.02
20.02
23.02
24.02
25.02
26.02
27.02
privatis.(BGN)
SIPC OTC
SIPC
unoff. OTC
unoff.
off icial OTC
off icial
The prices of the Bulgarian stock market during the month
in general showed bigger volatility compared with the
prices of the leading world stock markets.
DAX, SOFIX and BET,February 2009
1000
15002000
25003000
35004000
45005000
5500
02.02
03.02
04.02
05.02
06.02
09.02
10.02
11.02
12.02
13.02
16.02
17.02
18.02
19.02
20.02
23.02
24.02
25.02
26.02
27.02
250
300
350
400
DAX BET SOFIX (right scale)
13
BG40, February 2009
80
90
100
110
120
02.02
03.02
04.02
05.02
06.02
09.02
10.02
11.02
12.02
13.02
16.02
17.02
18.02
19.02
20.02
23.02
24.02
25.02
26.02
27.02
Pension fund price indices, February 2009 (1 July 2004 BGN 1)
1.00
1.02
1.04
1.06
1.08
1.10
1.12
1.14
02.02
03.02
04.02
05.02
06.02
07.02
08.02
09.02
10.02
11.02
12.02
13.02
14.02
15.02
16.02
17.02
18.02
19.02
20.02
21.02
22.02
23.02
24.02
25.02
26.02
27.02
VOLIDEX PROFIDEX UNIDEX
There were no placements of shares on the IPO market of
the BSE-Sofia in February.
14
BSE primary market, February 2009 (date T; BGN thousand)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
02.02
03.02
04.02
05.02
06.02
09.02
10.02
11.02
12.02
13.02
16.02
17.02
18.02
19.02
20.02
23.02
24.02
25.02
26.02
27.02
shares rights/shares govt sec. bonds
Lubomir Tonev
(+359 2) 9145 1608
Plamen Petrunov
(+359 2) 9145 1610
3. FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET
During February 2009 the USD exchange rate against BGN
was moving between the values of 1.50356 on 9 February
and 1.55336 on 20 February. The average USD exchange
rate was 1.52993, which is more then a BGN 0.05 higher
than the previous month’s value.
Daily BNB reference exchange rate for the USD,February 2009 (BGN per USD 1)
1.48
1.50
1.52
1.54
1.56
1.58
02.02
03.02
04.02
05.02
06.02
07.02
08.02
09.02
10.02
11.02
12.02
13.02
14.02
15.02
16.02
17.02
18.02
19.02
20.02
21.02
22.02
23.02
24.02
25.02
26.02
27.02
15
Daily USD turnover and exchange rates of (commercial) banks, February 2009
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
02.02
03.02
04.02
05.02
06.02
09.02
10.02
11.02
12.02
13.02
16.02
17.02
18.02
19.02
20.02
23.02
24.02
25.02
26.02
27.02
BG
N per
US
D 1
USD
mln
1.40
1.45
1.50
1.55
1.60
traded between banks bought from customerssold to customers average rate for purchases from customersaverage interbank rate average interbank rate
Total monthly foreign exchange market turnover, February 2008 to February 2009 (in mln of EUR)
38,622.4
36,827.2
47,667.7
40,544.8
46,982.1
51,535.6
47,432.7
47,747.4
56,876.8
53,238.6
48,298.3
41,935.7
44,675.6
February-08
March-08
April-08
May-08
June-08
July-08
August-08
September-08
October-08
November-08
December-08
January-09
February-09
In February the total turnover of the foreign exchange
market reached EUR 44675.6 million. The average daily
turnover was EUR 2233.8 million. The interbank turnover
(without BNB) was, in euro terms, EUR 89.9 million. The
USD trade between (commercial) banks was USD 16.1
16
million and comprised 14.0 percent of interbank foreign
exchange trading.
Foreign exchange trading between (commercial) banks, February 2008 to February 2009 (in mln of EUR)
81.3
112.1
84.6
141.4
145.0
212.2
175.3
141.2
194.9
97.2
72.5
133.2
89.9
February-08
March-08
April-08
May-08
June-08
July-08
August-08
September-08
October-08
November-08
December-08
January-09
February-09
Monthly EUR trading between BNB and banks,February 2008 to February 2009 (EUR mln)
8703
8108
10826
9207
10642
11635
10782
10616
12669
12134
10639
9313
10105
-8705
-7979
-10401
-8947
-10410
-11421
-10118
-10664
-12952
-12446
-11071
-9649
-10502
-2
425
260
232
214
664
-48
-312
-433
-336
-397
-283
129
February-08
March-08
April-08
May-08
June-08
July-08
August-08
September-08
October-08
November-08
December-08
January-09
February-09
bought from banks sold to banks net
17
Foreign exchange trading between (commercial) banks, February 2009 (in mln of EUR)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
02.02
03.02
04.02
05.02
06.02
07.02
08.02
09.02
10.02
11.02
12.02
13.02
14.02
15.02
16.02
17.02
18.02
19.02
20.02
21.02
22.02
23.02
24.02
25.02
26.02
27.02
EUR exchange rate, February 2009 (BGN per EUR 1)
1.91182
1.95583
1.99984
02.02
03.02
04.02
05.02
06.02
07.02
08.02
09.02
10.02
11.02
12.02
13.02
14.02
15.02
16.02
17.02
18.02
19.02
20.02
21.02
22.02
23.02
24.02
25.02
26.02
27.02
BNB interbank(comm.) banks from customers (comm.) banks to customers
On the interbank market, the BNB purchased EUR
10104.9 million and sold EUR 10502.0 million. The
18
amount of foreign exchange that the BNB purchased from
budgetary organizations (equal to EUR 133.4 million),
exceeded BNB sales (equal to EUR 29.3 million) by EUR
104.1 million.
Daily EUR turnover of (commercial) banks, February 2009 (EUR mln)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
02.02
03.02
04.02
05.02
06.02
07.02
08.02
09.02
10.02
11.02
12.02
13.02
14.02
15.02
16.02
17.02
18.02
19.02
20.02
21.02
22.02
23.02
24.02
25.02
26.02
27.02
traded between banks bought from customers sold to customers
Daily EUR trading between BNB and banks, February 2009 (EUR mln)
-900
-600
-300
0
300
600
900
02.02
03.02
04.02
05.02
06.02
07.02
08.02
09.02
10.02
11.02
12.02
13.02
14.02
15.02
16.02
17.02
18.02
19.02
20.02
21.02
22.02
23.02
24.02
25.02
26.02
27.02
spot value - net tommorow value same day value
19
The trade between (commercial) banks and customers
amounted to EUR 3117.5 million, which again is lower
than previous month’s value. The amount of foreign
exchange that the banks sold (equal to EUR 1743.5
million) exceeded their purchases (equal to EUR 1374.1
million) by EUR 369.4 million.
Non-bank financial intermediaries, licensed by the BNB for
foreign exchange trading, purchased foreign exchange
equal to EUR 85.8 million and sold foreign currencies
equal to EUR 81.5 million.
Foreign exchange trading of (commercial) banks with customers, February 2009 (in mln of EUR)
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
02.02
03.02
04.02
05.02
06.02
07.02
08.02
09.02
10.02
11.02
12.02
13.02
14.02
15.02
16.02
17.02
18.02
19.02
20.02
21.02
22.02
23.02
24.02
25.02
26.02
27.02
bought from customers sold to customers net
Foreign exchange trading of (commercial) banks with nonresidents, February 2009 (in mln of EUR)
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
02.02
03.02
04.02
05.02
06.02
07.02
08.02
09.02
10.02
11.02
12.02
13.02
14.02
15.02
16.02
17.02
18.02
19.02
20.02
21.02
22.02
23.02
24.02
25.02
26.02
27.02
bought from nonresidents sold to nonresidents net
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Foreign exchange market February 2009(in mln of EUR)
Purchases Sales BalanceInterbank market (commercial banks) 89.9 89.9 0.0(Commercial) banks with customers 1374.1 1743.5 -369.4 - of which: with nonresidents 74.4 126.1 -51.7
BNB total 10238.5 10533.0 -294.5 BNB with banks 10104.9 10502.0 -397.1 of which: *with banks - SPOT 70.0 10502.0 -10432.0 *with banks - TOM 0.0 0.0 0.0 *with banks - TODAY 10034.9 0.0 10034.9 *with banks - NOTES 0.0 0.0 0.0 BNB transactions with budgetary organisations 133.4 29.3 104.1 BNB notes operations at counters 0.1 1.7 -1.6
Source: BNB, from banks’ and BNB’s daily reports
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
1 2 3 4
1-total (BNB, banks, customers); 2-interbank (w ithout BNB); 3-(commercial) banks w ith customers; 4-forex
trading of non-bank financial intermidiaries
Currency structure of forex trading: total and for some participants, February 2009
OthersUSDEUR
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Forex swaps and forwards in EUR terms (estimate)
FX swap and forward transactions - (commercial) banks with final customers (in mln of EUR)Purchases Sales Balance
February 2009 2433.7 2759.2 -325.5 - of which: with nonresidents 2099.6 2439.0 -339.4FX structure (percentige)EUR 93.1 94.6USD 6.9 5.4
Interbank FX swap and forward transactions (commercial banks) (in mln of EUR)Purchases Sales Balance
February 2009 80.0 80.0 0.0FX structure (percentige)EUR 100.0 100.0USD 0.0 0.0
The figures for foreign exchange swap deals include both the sales of foreign currecies for BGN and the subsequent purchase operations.
Source: BNB, from banks’ daily reports
TENDENCES
Short-term expectations:
– With the usual volumes, money market rates to slightly
increase;
– Тhe SOFIX to continue fluctuating;
– USD/BGN to move within 1.55 - 1.50.
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