Risk & Uncertainty: The Future of Public Services in Scotland 26 & 27 March 2015Alan Ross - Zurich Strategic Risk & Resilience PracticeDavid Forster - Zurich Municipal Risk Engineering UK

UKGI

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To outline our view of some of the key trends and risks that will affect Scotland’s public services over the short, medium & long term

To get your views on the most significant trends and risks

To provoke thought and discussion about how resilient our public services are to these trends and risks

Purpose

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A trend is the general direction is which a factor is developing or changing; a pattern that could contribute to increasing the likelihood or impact of a risk.

Risk is the effect of uncertainty on objectives. These effects of may be negative or positive.

Trends & RisksWorking Definitions

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The Changing Landscape for Local Government, CIVICA 2015

Service Users

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“Generation Y is the self-service information generation…they want public services to be compatible with their lifestyle”

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1. Users demanding greater control to personalise or customise services

2. Expectation of ethical responsibility and transparency

3. Rise of chronic diseases & complex health needs

4. Rise of hyper connectivity

5. Increasing income disparity

Service User Trends

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National Records of Scotland, 2013

Political, Economic & Social

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“Current projections suggest that the population of Scotland will rise to 5.78 million by 2037, and that the population will age significantly, with the number

of people aged 65 and over increasing by 59%, from 0.93 million to 1.47 million”

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1. Continued squeeze on public finances & uncertain growth in UK & EU

2. Uncertain constitutional future: ‘home rule’, further devolution or independence

3. Ageing population

4. Meeting the climate change and sustainability challenge

5. Public debt levels

6. Asset and infrastructure maintenance

Political, Economic & Social Trends

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Glasgow and Clyde Valley City Deal, 2014

New Service Delivery Models

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“This deal provides an example of what can be achieved when all levels of Government, businesses, universities and the voluntary and community sector

work together to promote economic growth.”

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1. Increasing need for an ‘always there’ service – availability and consumer choice

2. Sharing economy: co-production of services

3. City regions and place based resource allocation

4. Integrated service delivery and partnership working with other public service and social organisations

5. Commissioning and outsourcing ‘mission critical’ services

New Service Delivery Model Trends

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World Economic Forum Global Risks Report, 2015

Technology

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“While these investments often deliver rapid improvements in efficiency and operational continuity, they also create unexpected new risks: bugs and

brittleness”

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1. Cyber risk and information governance

2. Advanced analytics and the use of big data

3. Digital health technologies, telemedicine and wearable technology

4. Smart cities

Technology Trends

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CIPD, 2012

People & Leadership

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“Local service organisations face an unprecedented people management challenge in engaging employees and maintaining their motivation against a

backdrop of pay freezes, pension reform and job cuts. ”

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1. The skills needed to succeed today may be different from tomorrow

2. Increasing numbers of women in the workplace

3. Agile and flexible working practices

4. Decrease in graduate unemployment; competition for diminishing pool of talent

People & Leadership Trends

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1. Which team is responsible for understanding and managing the short, medium and long term risks in your organisation?

2. Scenario planning for the key risks for your organisation

3. Challenge your risk and insurance partners, and colleagues: what more should we be doing to help you understand or meet the challenges you face?

Solutions

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Thank you

UKGI

www.zurichmunicipal.co.uk

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