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Italian strategy towards Power System Resilience and Regulatory scenario Emanuele Ciapessoni Ricerca sul Sistema Energetico - RSE S.p.A. [email protected] IEA Experts’ Group on R&D Priority Setting and Evaluation (EGRD) 13 – 14 May 2019

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Italian strategy towards Power System Resilience and

Regulatory scenario

Emanuele CiapessoniRicerca sul Sistema Energetico - RSE S.p.A.

[email protected]

IEA Experts’ Group on R&D Priority Setting and Evaluation (EGRD)

13 – 14 May 2019

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Outline

• The context : managing modern/future powersystems

• What’s resilience? Reliability, security and resilience

• A risk based approach for power systemmanagement

• Regulatory scenario• Conclusions

2

Italian strategy towards Power System Resilience and Regulatory scenario

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Variety of generation sources in size, bothcentralised and decentralised, fully or largelycircular

ETIP SNET – Vision 2050

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PS is a Continent-wide very complexinterconnected synchronous network

Disturbances originated in an area may propagate throughout the interconnection, leading to significant loss of service (blackouts)

PS is increasingly vulnerable to different threats, with significant cascading impact

– on the surroundings (environmental, economical etc) and

– on the overall society (security of supply etc).

Natural and man induced events and phenomena

cannot be fully controlled

PS Criticalities

This trend is expected to continue in the future, especially in the perspective of SmartGrids (ICT vulnerabilities & failures)

Smart Grids deployement increases the needs of security and resilience of ICTs.

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Infrastructure damages due to external events

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Why Resilience

ARERA 645/2017/R/EEL September 21, 2017

SIGNIFICANT EVENTS • Blackout (> 8 ours) in Emilia Romagna and Lombardia (February 2015), involving 360.000 customers• Backout (> 72 ours) In Abruzzo and Marche (January 2017) involving 39.000 customers

ENS in Italy from 2010 to 2014 [AEEGSI]

Other incidents

Relevant incident

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Why Resilience

Interruptions duration of LV users caused by MAJOR FORCE events[ARERA 2 DCO 645/17]

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MANAGEMENT OF MODERN/FUTURE POWER SYSTEMS

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Management of modern/future Power Systems

10

10

Local to European level

• Coordination

Uncertainties

• Loads• Renewables• …

Dynamics

• Power electronics

• …

• Larger interconnections• High penetration of inverter-

interfaced RES• Increasing risks

What changesfor operation ?

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Many sources of uncertainty …11

Weather

Failurerates

Human behaviour

Remedialactions

topology

LoadsGeneration

schedule

RES

Outageduration

OutageoccurrenceModels

Dynamicsimulation

ICT

Management of modern/future power systems

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Black out

12… Uncertainties …

Risk of… what?

Uncontrolled islanding

Cascading

Voltage instability

Loss of load

Current violation

Initiating event(s)

Frequency instability

Angle instability

Voltage violation

€

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WHAT’S RESILIENCE? RELIABILITY, SECURITY AND RESILIENCE

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State and resilience

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Why resilience?

• Traditionally … Reliable = Secure +

Adequate• Security criteria require

PS keeps the electricitysupply to customersintact in case of N-1 contigencies

Resilience is born!

What’s a reliable power system in case of extreme events?

• Can a Power System be secure to extreme events?

NO!Due to excessive costs for system management

Instead of N-k security …. • We can require that

system degradation islimited in case of extraordinary events

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What’s resilience?Definition from Cigré WG C4.47 Cigré WG C4.47 addresses these topics:

1. What are current efforts being conducted to protect critical infrastructure?

2. Definition of power system resilience in electricity sector?

3. What is the appropriate approach and methodology to be followed for analyzing power systems resilience?

4. What metrics should be used to quantify theresilience performance of a power grid in the face of a disaster (High-impact, Low-probability event)?

5. How do we decide on and plan investment portfolios for boosting resilience?

6. How should we define the critical infrastructure and the interdependenciesbetween critical infrastructures?

7. Policy and regulatory framework to create the environment to encourage the adoption of prudent decision making?

Cigré WG C4.47 addresses these topics:1. What are current efforts being conducted to protect critical infrastructure?

2. Definition of power system resilience in electricity sector?

3. What is the appropriate approach and methodology to be followed for analyzing power systems resilience?

4. What metrics should be used to quantify theresilience performance of a power grid in the face of a disaster (High-impact, Low-probability event)?

5. How do we decide on and plan investment portfolios for boosting resilience?

6. How should we define the critical infrastructure and the interdependenciesbetween critical infrastructures?

7. Policy and regulatory framework to create the environment to encourage the adoption of prudent decision making?

Resilience refers to PS response to extreme events

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What’s resilience?

Resilience refers to PS response to extreme events

Separation between the «property» and the «keymeasures» which make a system resilient

Reference to degradedperformance and extreme event, i.e to HILP (High Impact Low Probability) event

Precise characterization of degradation, by means of «extent», «severity» and «duration»

Definition from Cigré WG C4.47 Approach

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A RISK BASED APPROACH FOR POWER SYSTEM RESILIENCETHE RSE ITALIAN PERSPECT

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Fundamental skillsto manage resilience

Gridinfrastructure

Power systemmanagement Environment

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Threats affecting Power Systems

2020

Main causes of damages due to natural events:1. Wind storms2. Ice/snow storms3. Lightning 4. …

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Vulnerability of ICT/Power Systems

ICT/Power systems are vulnerable to both natural and human related threats

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Power component

threats

External(Exogenous)

Internal(Endogenous)

NaturalLightning, fires,

ice/snow storms, floods, solar storms…

Component faults, strained operating

conditions…Man-related (unintention

al or deliberate)

Unintentional damage by operating a crane; Sabotage, terrorism,

outsider errors…

Employee errorsMalicious actions

by unfaithful employees…

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N-1 security against a credible set of contingencies

RESILIENCEto events of substantial

risk

FROM Security TO Vulnerability/RiskFOR Resilience

Vulnerability/Riskanalysis

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The BOW TIE model

23

Focus• Multiple contingencies (functional and geographic dependencies) • ICT dependencies• Cascading

Protection

The methodology is based on an extended concept of «RISK»

RISK = {threat, vulnerability, contingency, impact}The methodology is based on an extended concept of «RISK»

RISK = {threat, vulnerability, contingency, impact}

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Countermeasure assessmenta sensitivity-based approach

A two stage approach:

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Active measures for smarteroperation:Hazard & security analysisGen. redispatchingDynamic Line ratingDefence systems

Weather monitoring and prediction systems

Passive measuresfor gridreinforcement

• Running hazard-vulnerabilityscenarios considering:– Different intensities of the

threats– Different level of deployment

of active or passive resilienceboosting measures

• Compare the risk of loss of load among the differentscenarios– To get the resilience benefits

due to the countermeasuredeployment

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RSE for ResilienceSome RSE tools

WOLF toolPrevisione di manicotti di neve umida

ISAP toolValutazione degli indicatori di

resilienza sulla rete di trasmissione

Visualizzazione georeferenziata dei

componenti critici di rete!

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The method is not limitedto wet snow events …Effect of different Threat Scenarios on System Risk/Resilience

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RSE very active in resilience!• CIGRE C4.47 WG «Power System

Resilience»• IEEE WG on «Cascading outage»• CIRED WG on the «Resilience of

distribution networks »

• TERNA in using the monitoring and forecasting tools WOLF/WILD

• RSE take part in the ARERA task forceson natural threats and systemrestoration

• RSE take part in thr ARERA resiliencetechnical table

…. And there is still a long way to go!

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Current efforts to enhance resilience in Italy

• RSE collaborated in the CEI (Italian ElectrotechnicalCommittee) working group on resilience and severalstakeholders, like the main DSO’s and the Italian TSO.

• The aim of the working group was to set the guidelines for a methodology to define and compute resilience metrics in case of weather events and to evaluate resilience benefits from enhancements in grid infrstructure or operation

• These guidelines are being used to define the integrateddefense plan (PID) to enhance transmission and distributionsystem resilience

• Chosen indicator was the inverse risk of customerdisconnection (RT/#NSU).

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Regulatory framework to resilience in Italy

• ARERA (Italian NRA) established a «Resilience table» inviting stakeholders, CEI and RSE to define a methodology for resilience assessment and enhancement starting form the results of CEI WG

• A consultation was performed by ARERA to establish the framework for resilience evaluation, accounting and enhancement

• The indicator identified by CEI WG was enforced• Different kind of incentives was be investigated. A

TOTEX approach was established.

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Regulatory framework to resilience in Italy (2)

• According to final deliberation of ARERA Operators with more than 50K costomerspresented «resilience enhancement plan» with cost benefit analysis.

• work is on going ….

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Some further referencesJournals/Conferences• E. Ciapessoni, D. Cirio, G. Kjølle, S. Massucco, A. Pitto and M. Sforna, "Probabilistic Risk-Based Security

Assessment of Power Systems Considering Incumbent Threats and Uncertainties", IEEE Trans. on Smart Grid, vol.7, no. 6, pp. 2890-2903, Nov. 2016.

• E. Ciapessoni, D. Cirio, A. Pitto, P. Marcacci, M. Lacavalla, S. Massucco, F. Silvestro, M. Sforna, "A Risk-BasedMethodology and Tool Combining Threat Analysis and Power System Security Assessment", Energies 2017, Vol10, no. 4, pp.1-16.

• E. Ciapessoni, D. Cirio, A. Pitto and M. Sforna, "A probabilistic risk-based security assessment tool allowingcontingency forecasting", 2018 IEEE International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems(PMAPS), Boise, ID, 2018, pp. 1-6.

• P. Bonelli, M. Lacavalla, P. Marcacci, G. Mariani, and G. Stella, “Wet snow hazard for power lines: a forecast andalert system applied in Italy”, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, pp. 2419-2431, 2011.

• M. Lacavalla, P. Marcacci, A. Freddo, “Wet-snow activity research in Italy”, IWAIS 2015, Uppsala Sweden.• M. Lacavalla, P. Marcacci, C. Chemelli, M. Balordi, R. Bonanno and G. Pirovano “Operational Forecast and

Research Activities on Wet snow Accretion in Italy”, Proceedings IWAIS 2017, 2017.• IEC 60826/Ed4 (2017) - “ Design Criteria of Overhead Transmission Lines”.• M. L. Pestana et al. (RSE author: C. Carlini) ”Resilience of Distribution Grids”, CIRED WG report, May 31, 2018.• G. Viganò, C. Carlini et al. “The control of active distribution networks: The experience of the Italian ‘demo’ of

the European project GRID4EU”, January 2016, Energia Elettrica, Vol. 93, no. 4, pp. 39-49.

Report• E. Ciapessoni, A. Pitto, “Analysis of the resilience of the Italian power system with respect to the phenomenon of

ice sleeves and assessment of control actions”, RSE, Report RdS 18000395, Feb 2018.

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Take away messages

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• Resilience and Risk are fundamental concepts for operating modern power systems

• In Italy a Probabilistic risk based method is used in planning for resilience according to ARERA deliberations

• Risk methods for operation are still quite far from being deployed in control centers, currently wetherforecast is used by TSO and will be used by DSOs.

• Future methods and tools will support operators by suggesting the most suitable countermeasures(passive and active) for different threats over different time scales (from planning to operation)

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Resilience basedmanagement

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[email protected]

Thank you for your attention!

Italian strategy towards Power System Resilience and Regulatory scenario


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