Educational Master Plan2008-2018

Mendocino-Lake Community College DistrictApproved by Board of Trustees on February 3, 2010.Updated April 2012.

2

2012 Planning PrioritiesBased on the Educational Master Plan and Program Review, EAP has identified the following institutional planning priorities:

Addressing professional development needs – e.g., how to teach research papers Building K-12 alliances Developing effective technology Improving retention and student services Addressing growth in Lake County Addressing growth in Latino population district-wide Addressing aging of community and faculty Meeting state mandates Linking facilities planning to educational needs Scheduling maintenance/sustainability Supporting Basic Skills

3

Executive Summary

The Educational Master Plan (EMP) is prepared by the Educational Action Plan (EAP) committee. The EMP is a living document which is a part of the College’s overall planning process. The EMP is revisited yearly and updated, as needed, to reflect changes in the external or internal environment; the needs of the community and our students; and the changing nature of higher education. By providing the foundation for the Facilities Master Plan and the Technology Master Plan (see diagram), the EMP is a key document in the College’s planning efforts.

Relationship among Educational Master Plan, Facilities Master Plan, Technology Plan and Strategic Plan.

Because Mendocino College is virtually the only postsecondary education institution within the District, it is the primary provider of education for job enhancement or retraining for many adults. For in-District high school graduates (a slowly shrinking pool), it is the postsecondary educator of choice. Each year, Mendocino College also transfers about 150 students to other institutions of higher education, principally schools with the California State University system and the University of California system. It also enrolls a large part-time student population, predominantly lifelong learners.

STRATEGIC PLANMISSION VISION VALUES GOALS

Educational

Master Plan

TECHNOLOGY PLAN

FACILITIES PLAN

ACTION PLAN

4

The Mendocino-Lake Community College District spans portions of Mendocino County and Lake County and serves a diverse and demographically changing population. In terms of economics, the largest sectors of the District economy are in public service (government and education), leisure and hospitality, retail and agriculture. Since 1990, there has been an overall decline in manufacturing and the natural resources sectors of the economy. Limited job growth is projected in the areas of the environment, allied health and green technologies.

The EMP addresses the need for expanding the student population at Mendocino College over the next decade. Because of external forces, such as state support, increased energy costs and other natural increases in costs, the College will need to have a larger student population orother revenue sources. This will require a broad-based effort ranging from increasing the persistence of enrolled students to expanding current programs to serve the changing population and the development of new programs to meet workforce needs. In part, growing integration of technology and pedagogy may help the college balance the need for growth with a tradition of personalized instruction.

As Mendocino College engages in planning, it must balance maintaining traditional strengths while meeting the challenges of the future:

The College needs to preserve the breadth of choice in programs and courses in the Arts & Sciences and to continue to support Career and Technical Education. At the same time, changes in demand will force the re-examination of existing programs, leading to modification or discontinuance in some cases.

There is a considerable challenge in maintaining the high quality of instruction that Mendocino College is known for as the College develops more distance education and make greater use of technology in all aspects of the college experience.

Quality of instruction will also be challenged as the College expands to provide more services in Lake County and Willits and explore other new geographic venues. The recruitment of high quality part-time and full-time faculty will be a constant priority.

As a comprehensive community college, Mendocino College needs to continue to preserve and expand lifelong learning opportunities, especially as the population changes. Balanced against this need are the challenges associated with potential changes in state funding for courses and fee structures.

5

 Chapter I: Philosophy and Role of the Educational Master Plan

Introduction The Mendocino College Educational Master Plan (EMP) offers direction for the future and a foundation for meeting the educational needs of the students and communities of the Mendocino-Lake Community College District. It provides the basis for the ongoing development of Mendocino College programs and services by outlining a general plan for the future through 2018. The plan acknowledges the College’s strengths, provides data about future trends, and makes reasonable planning assumptions about how the College can best meet the needs of the ever-changing California North Coast community. It is intended to be viewed as a “living document” to be used as the primary guide in college planning and decision-making over the next decade. It will be used as the basis for shaping the content of its component support plans: the Facilities Master Plan and the Technology Plan. All three master plan segments work in conjunction with the Strategic Plan to address emerging demographic and educational trends in response to the evolving needs of students.  

 

6

 

Objectives of the Educational Master Plan1. Document current practices

2. Produce a plan that is flexible enough to accommodate changes in instructional

methodology, technology, and delivery systems

3. Encourage the delivery of college curriculum including transfer education, career and technical programs, special interest courses (when possible), and instruction and support for the under-prepared student

4. Anticipate the instructional program needs of the community for the next decade

5. Provide a planning document that will serve as a decision-making tool and reference for the future

6. Maximize efficiency and productivity of instructional programs

STRATEGIC PLANMISSION VISION VALUES GOALS

Educational

Master Plan

TECHNOLOGY PLAN

FACILITIES PLAN

ACTION PLAN

7

7. Drive the planning of staffing, capital expenditure, technology, facilities, professional

development, and budget  

College Characteristics and Planning Assumptions to 2018 For the purposes of planning the next decade of activity at Mendocino College, it can be assumed that several fundamental current characteristics of the college will provide the opportunity to:

Continue the College’s role as the primary local institution of public higher education within the Mendocino-Lake Community College District meeting the mission and operational requirements of the California Community College System as supported by the State of California;

Maintain a small college setting where excellent faculty, relatively small classes and

personalized support services can allow individual students from small regional communities to participate actively in the educational process and flourish in ways not possible at larger colleges;

Foster student-centered learning environments and maintain quality instruction by

supporting faculty in being innovative and passionate about teaching and learning;

Develop new avenues of student and institutional financial support in cooperation with Financial Aid and the Mendocino College Foundation, as well as the pursuit of grant opportunities; 

Complete plans and projects funded by the 2006 Measure W Bond

Maintain accreditation by the Western Association of Schools and Colleges.

In conjunction with the fundamental characteristics of the college listed above, research for the Educational Master Plan suggests several key planning assumptions:

On average, Mendocino College students have more financial need than those in many areas in the rest of the state, and the College needs to invest in initiatives to assist them.

The College needs to preserve -- and expand when possible -- breadth of choice, even if

it chooses to discontinue some classes and programs.

8

As the only local institution of higher education, we have an obligation to respond to community demands for job training and upgrading of career skills.

Lake County demographics suggest an opportunity to increase the high school capture

rate in the eastern portion of the college district.

New alliances with secondary school throughout the District will help increase enrollments in both Transfer and Career and Technical programs.

Improved and innovative programs should expand comprehensive opportunities to

support the persistence of all students. 

About Mendocino College    Mendocino College is a single college district within the public California Community College System, serving geographically distinct rural communities within the Mendocino-Lake Community College District. The District occupies major portions of both Mendocino and Lake Counties in northern California. Founded in 1973, Mendocino College has become an important center of higher education, serving its students from a main campus in Ukiah and two off-campus centers -- in the cities of Lakeport in western Lake County and Willits in northern Mendocino County. During its 35 years, the college has become a primary resource for surrounding California North Coast communities and a leading force in regional higher education, economic development and community improvement. The College plays an increasingly important role in the lives of area residents by providing diverse academic programs leading to certificates and associate degrees. These programs include Career and Technical Education, Foundational Skills, and the Arts and Sciences. The College serves the needs of students who ultimately plan to transfer to other colleges and universities. Finally, the College provides a range of social, cultural and athletic activities which enrich the lives of students and members of the community. In response to the changing demographics and job opportunities in the rural region Mendocino College serves, the college strives to maintain a breadth of choice in programs and courses. It also recognizes the importance of the ability to react quickly and effectively to immediate needs brought forward by the community. As evidenced in this Educational Master Plan, it is anticipated that continuing population changes will gradually re-shape the character of the region, providing opportunities to strengthen existing programs and to adapt to new needs. In the coming decade the college will be challenged to keep up with advances in technology, instructional innovation, market and job trends, and demands for new and improved educational programs and facilities.

9

As California Community Colleges share the responsibility of meeting a broad range of needs in the absence of adequate resources, it is even more critical for Mendocino College to establish a clearly articulated plan as part of an ongoing commitment to providing the communities it serves with a dynamic educational, social, and cultural environment dedicated to student success. Mendocino College’s vision and roadmap for the next 10 years (Fall 2008 – Fall 2018) is addressed in the following pages. This document represents the collaborative efforts of faculty, staff and student representatives. It is based on campus-wide discussions, research, the Program Review process, and the contributions of members of several institutional planning committees. The plan articulates the shared vision, mission, values, and goals that will continue moving the college toward excellence in classroom teaching and learning, work force preparation, online education, economic and community development, and services to students.  

College MissionMendocino College is a dynamic community of learners in which faculty and staff partner with students to help them achieve their educational goals. Informed by research, reflection and dialogue, we meet community needs through learning opportunities in lower division programs in Basic Skills, Transfer Preparation and Career and Technical Education as well as Workforce Improvement. (Adopted February 2, 2005. Last Revision December 7, 2011)

College VisionMendocino College faculty, staff and students inspire each other to engage in quality educational experiences to achieve student success.

Within this partnership, all members share a mutual accountability for student success. Faculty and staff serve as the catalyst for students actively engaged in the learning process; students accept their responsibility to define their goals and to work actively toward them. (Adopted February 2, 2005. Last Revision December 7, 2011)

College Core ValuesStudent Success:

We are committed to helping students achieve their educational goals.

Collaboration: We participate in our communities to become informed about and engaged in local and global issues. We work and communicate collegially, both on campus and in our communities.

Respect:

10

We recognize the worth of individuals by encouraging active participation, open exchange of ideas and collaborative decision making.

Integrity: We maintain public trust by being honest, fair and equitable and by honoring our commitments to our students, staff and communities.

Diversity: We respect the dignity of each individual; we value the creativity and insight that emerge from individual differences; and we recognize the importance of diversity in achieving our goals.

Responsiveness: We respond to requests and concerns in a timely and helpful manner. We listen to our students and our communities and institute changes based on identified needs.

Continuous Improvement: We work to integrate the best practices in education and to ensure progress toward achieving our goals by operating in a culture of evidence.

Sustainability: We embrace sustainable practices and recognize our responsibility as global citizens.(Adopted February 2, 2005. Last Revision December 7, 2011)

College Strategic Goals Within our learner-centered partnership:

1. Cultivate student success as measured by learning outcomes.

2. Ensure student access to college programs and services.

3. Build a vibrant, student-centered campus experience within and beyond the classroom.

4. Maximize the efficient use of financial, human, physical and technology resources. 5. Develop new and strengthen existing relationships with educators, business, public

agencies and other constituents of our communities.

(Adopted February 2, 2005. Last Revision December 7, 2011)

The Role of the Educational Master Plan The Educational Master Plan (EMP) reflects the college mission, vision and core values as it guides the campus in reaching its strategic goals and directions over a ten-year period through the year 2018. The EMP describes current college practices in order to create future plans. The EMP also meshes with and reinforces other master plans for Facilities and Technology, to create a unified strategic plan for the College.

11

The EMP should be considered a dynamic and flexible document that is consistent with the emerging educational trends and the needs of the students and the community. Inherent in its logic should be the understanding that institutional change takes time and that internal and external factors may affect plans. The EMP is kept by the Educational Action Plan committee which is responsible for reviewing and updating it yearly. It is also synchronized with the Program Review process and evolves in response to new community and program needs. In addition to providing general direction for academic programs, the EMP is a document which informs the Planning and Budgeting Committee, the Staffing Committee and other committees engaged in planning and budgeting at Mendocino College, including Facilities and Technology planning committees. The EMP discusses programs as they fall into three areas: Established Programs

These are the core programs at the College which are consistently offered. The EMP, in identifying these programs, also discusses how they can be maintained and developed.

Transitional Programs

These are programs which are developed in response to an immediate need in the service area, but which may not become established offerings from semester to semester or year to year. Factors affecting these transitional programs may include internal factors (enrollments, faculty, resources/ facilities) or external factors (economic or social factors, demand for graduates).

Potential Programs

These are programs for which courses may not currently exist or which may be created by combining existing courses. In considering developing programs, the College will consider research which reveals current community needs. 

Assumptions of the Educational Master Plan

GrowthOver the decade from 2008 though 2018, Mendocino College anticipates growth will be achieved in various ways: through an increase in enrollments; through an increase in full-time students; through an increase in student retention; through an increase in sections; and through an increase in programs. The need to experience growth is largely financial: all costs associated with the operation of the College will continue to rise. Low or no growth in FTES, the primary state funding mechanism for the College assumed for the current planning period, would likely result in loss of faculty and services.

12

 

FlexibilityWhile Chapter 3 provides some projection of population and employment trends for the near future (through 2015), these are statistical projections based upon past experiences. Radical changes in the economy of the North Coast region (e.g. a major new manufacturing facility, a new regional medical/health care facility, new consumer technologies) could place unforeseen demands for new or expanded programs upon the College. The EMP needs to incorporate enough flexibility to accommodate unforeseen changes over the next decade, including budget fluctuations at the state level, but have enough detail to be an effective planning guide.Flexibility also refers to the use of alternative methods for instruction and adoption of current information and communications technologies.

Community The EMP needs to define how Mendocino College can best continue to serve the communities of Mendocino County and Lake County. Doing this requires analysis, evaluation and planning for the “optimal mix” of career and technical, transfer, basic skills, special interest and degree courses and programs offered by the College.

Organization of the Educational Master PlanChapter 2 discusses the methodology used in constructing the Educational Master Plan. This refers to the planning groups, committees and constituencies within the college that participated in the development of the plan. Chapter 3 presents information about external and internal forces and trends which are affecting the College at present and will likely affect the College in the future. This chapter draws upon information from the college as well as information from State and Federal agencies. Forecasts for the near-term future are presented. Chapter 4 draws upon information from the Program Review documents as well as internal data to assess current programs and develop planning assumptions for current and future programs. Chapter 5 discusses potential trends in pedagogy, instructional delivery and needed professional development. Chapter 6 presents a vision for Mendocino College through the year 2018.

13

14

Chapter 2:  Methodology

Background: Participants and Process of Planning At the core of the planning process at Mendocino College is Program Review. The Program Review process is conducted annually by each academic and student services program and each administrative department. This is a process of self-assessment in which programs and departments evaluate areas of strength and weakness, evaluate progress, report upon Student Learning Outcomes (SLOs) and project their budget needs for the coming year. Programs are also asked to project their objectives over a rolling three-year period. Program, staffing and budget information is drawn from Program Review documents as the basis for annual planning efforts. For the last ten years, the primary function of the Institutional Master Plan Steering Committee (IMPSC) has been to coordinate institutional planning efforts, recommend staffing decisions, and develop processes that improve program review and planning at the college. In Fall 2007, IMPSC was also given the task of coordinating the production of the Educational Master Plan in collaboration with its three institutional planning committees: Educational Action Plan Committee (EAP); Administrative Services Master Plan Committee (ASMPC); and the Physical Resources Master Plan Committee (PRMPC). In Spring 2008, the planning structure at Mendocino College was revised and IMPSC was transformed into a new body, the Planning and Budgeting Committee (PBC) which, true to its name, brings these two elements of the process into a unified body. Eight standing committees, representing particular portions of the Program Review process, report their recommendations to PBC. The eight committees are:

Staffing Facilities (replaces PRMPC) Outreach and Marketing Professional Development Technology Educational Action Plan Curriculum (subcommittee of the Academic Senate) Student Learning Outcomes Team

Additionally, the Vice Presidents stand as a committee to evaluate any information from Program Review which does not fall under the purview of the standing committees. 

Development of the Educational Master PlanIn order to accomplish the task of writing a ten-year educational master plan, IMPSC (and, later, PBC) identified three primary goals:

15

1. Collect data necessary to provide context to the Educational Master Plan. Data include internal and external trends and statistical projections of these trends, where appropriate. 2. Synthesize the information into trends and implications in order to revise the goals, objectives and strategies with input from various institutional groups and the larger campus community, using Program Review. 3. Create a Master Plan document that will guide the College for the next 10 years. Following upon IMPSC’s directive, EAP formed an Educational Master Plan (EMP) task force which included Deans Rawitsch and Guleff, and Director of Institutional Research Duffy, who formed a working group and began the process drafting the EMP by researching existing Master Plans published by other California Community Colleges. From this initial research, a preliminary working draft was created in late Fall 2007 and early Spring 2008, which included these documents:

A “road map” for the EMP. This document included a chapter-based outline of the contents of the EMP as well as suggestions regarding which college constituencies would contribute

Drafts for Chapters 1, 2 and 3. These chapters provided the context for planning for the next 7 – 10 years.

In Spring 2008, a subcommittee of the Educational Action Planning (EAP) Committee, composed of the VP of Education and Student Services, the Instructional Deans, officers of the Academic Senate and additional faculty began the process of defining the goals and directions for the College’s master plan, a review of Chapters 1 – 3, and the development of Chapters 4 - 6. In Fall 2008, the work of the subcommittee was shared with EAP. Throughout the ’08-’09 school year, EAP continued to refine Chapters 1 – 3 and develop Chapters 4-6. Based upon the input of the full EAP committee, in Fall ’09 a revised draft of the EMP was shared with faculty constituent groups (Academic Senate, Curriculum Committee) for further review and input prior to completing an interim draft for the consideration of the Planning and Budget Committee (PBC). In November ’09, PBC reviewed the EMP and forwarded comments to EAP for incorporation prior to the EMP being presented to the Board of Trustees in January 2010. 

16

Chapter 3: Research and Analysis

IntroductionMendocino College relies on an examination of current conditions and forecasts to provide a context for educational decision making. This chapter details current conditions and provides a backdrop for considering new programs, by examining both external and internal trends.

For the purposes of this discussion, external trends, or exogenous factors, are considered to be largely outside of the control of the College and include factors such as community demographics; local, state and national economic conditions; state and federal policies and regulations; and policies of other institutions of higher education. While external trends may be outside of the direct control of the College, the College may, through its own decisions and policies, be able to mitigate the effect of a trend or factor upon the operation of the College.

Internal trends, or endogenous factors, are considered to be more directly a consequence of policies or decisions made by members of the Mendocino College community, including faculty, staff and students. In many ways, internal trends can be addressed and redirected to a much higher degree than external trends.

While certain trends are clearly external and certain trends are clearly internal, in many cases, there is interplay between internal and external trends that tends to blur the boundary. However, an examination of both current conditions and forecasts of trends helps to provide a clearer picture of the environment in which education at Mendocino College is situated.

A Word about ForecastingAttempts are made, where appropriate, to forecast the course of statistical trends, through mathematical modeling, typically, regression models. While these models may predict the path that events may take, the results discussed here are not preordained. An underlying assumption of this type of modeling is that the models predict what is statistically likely to take place, based upon prior experience and provided there is no policy decision designed to directly (or indirectly) affect the path. This is especially true of internal trends.

External TrendsThe following discussion highlights several trends in the external environment which may affect the operations of Mendocino College in the near-term.

17

GeographyGeographically, the Mendocino-Lake Community College serves an area of roughly 3,200 square miles. The area encompasses most of Mendocino County and the western portion of Lake County. The district is shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1: Mendocino-Lake Community College District map. District borders outlined in black.

The district encompasses eight school districts and serves a population of about 96,000 people. The main campus is located in Ukiah with service centers in Willits and Lakeport and a research facility in Point Arena. It is not likely that the borders of the district will change any time in the near future nor is it likely that other service centers will be added.

Population ChangesMost striking is the combination of demographic trends that are taking place within the populations of Lake and Mendocino Counties. According to projections from the California

18

Department of Finance, the confluence of two trends will markedly alter the complexion of the population of the two counties served by the College. These trends are:

Earlier estimates from the California Department of Finance and the US Census Bureau projected that Mendocino County would become much “grayer” than Lake County in the coming years. However, population changes in Lake County now temper that estimate. According to the 2010 US Census, 17.7% of Lake County population is 65 or over compared to 15.4% of Mendocino County population. Overall, though, both counties are “graying” at a similar rate. The median age of population in Lake County is 45.0 years and the median age of population for Mendocino County is 41.5%. For Lake County, that is an increase of 5.4% from 2000 (42.7 years) and for Mendocino County, it is an increase of 6.7% over the 2000 Census (38.9 years). However, Mendocino County has experienced greater change at the lower end of the age range. In the 2000 Census, 15-19 year olds constituted 7.6% of the population (6,544); in the 2010 Census, that dropped to 6.4% of the population (5,613). While the population of 15-19 year olds actually grew in Lake County, from 3,749 to 4,190; the proportion of the population remained about the same… 6.4% in the 2000 Census v. 6.5% in the 2010 Census.

Overall, the population in both counties has seen a major shift in the ethnicity of the population. In Lake County, the Hispanic population has grown from 6,639 (11.3% of total) in the 2000 Census to 11,088 (17.4% of total) in the 2010 Census, an increase of 67%. In Mendocino County, the Hispanic population has grown from 14,213 (16.47% of total) in the 2000 Census to 19,505 (22.2% of total) in the 2010 Census. It is further projected that the proportion of population identified as Hispanic will continue to grow in each county over the next 20 years or longer.

These changes will be taking place within a context of very limited population growth. Between 2000 and 2010, Mendocino County grew from 86,265 to 87,841, about 1.8%. Lake County population grew from 58,309 to 64,665, an increase of 10.9%. However, the larger proportion of the growth in the section of Lake County which lies outside district boundaries. For example, fully 1/3 of the Lake County population growth was in the City of Clearlake. The growth measure by the 2010 Census is well below that projected by the California Department of Finance projections which projected growth of about 1% per year for Mendocino County.

One aspect of the population change is the overall decline in the proportion of the prime college-going population, ages 17 – 26. The declining 17-26 year-old population is significant because 53.2% of currently enrolled students in Fall 2011 and 83.5% of First-time students in Fall 2011 are within this age-group. Geographically, 50.9% of all enrolled students from Mendocino County and 57.9% of all enrolled students from Lake County in Fall 2011 are within this age group. Once enrolled, students in the 17-26 age-group generally enroll as full-time

19

rather than part-time students and tend to have higher rates of persistence than other groups of students.

The growth of the Hispanic population in both counties may require a substantial alteration in the course offerings of the College. Not only is the Hispanic proportion of the population growing (see below) but population data from the 2010 US Census indicates that the Hispanic population is considerably younger than the majority (White) population in Mendocino and Lake Counties. As shown in Figure 2, the Hispanic population for the two combined counties is skewed to the lower end of the age scale and the White population to the upper end of the age scale.

Under 15

15-17 18-19 20-21 22-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-49 50-64 65+0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

Hispanic/Latino Any Race White Alone/Not Hisp.

IPEDs Age Group

Figure 2: Proportional distribution by IPEDs age groups, of Hispanic population and White population in Mendocino and Lake counties, combined. Source: 2010 US Census.

The largest single proportion of the Hispanic population, 32.1% is under 15 years of age. In fact, 50% of the combined Hispanic population is 24 years of age or less. This translates to 15,294 people. In contrast, the highest proportion of the White population 29% (31,385) is in the 50-64 age-group. Among White residents of Mendocino and Lake counties, 62.3% (67,450) are 40 years of age or older and only 22.8% (24614) 24 years of age or younger.

20

Traditional college-age students (18-24) comprise 11.8% (3,595) of the combined Hispanic populations of the two counties. In contract, the same age-group comprises only 6.6% (7,096) of the White population.

The Native American population, which comprises about 3.3% of the population of Mendocino and Lake Counties, has characteristics which resemble both the White and the Hispanic populations, as shown in Figure 3.

Under 15

15-17 18-19 20-21 22-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-49 50-64 65+0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

White Alone/Not Hisp. Amer. Ind/Alaska Nat. Alone Not Hisp

IPEDs Age Groups

Figure 3: Proportional distribution by IPEDs age groups, of Native American population and White population in Mendocino and Lake counties, combined. Source: 2010 US Census.

Like the Hispanic population, there is a considerable bulge for Native Americans at the younger end of the spectrum. About 25% of the Native American population in Mendocino and Lake Counties combined is 15 or younger. However, like the White population, there is a considerable bulge at the older end of the spectrum. Slightly more than 40% of the Native American population is 40 years of age or older. While neither bulge is as pronounced as that for the Hispanic population at the younger end or the White population as the older end of the age spectrum, the Native American population has a distinct bipolar distribution.

21

In-district population

The US Census releases limited information from the census based upon zip codes. Using the zip codes that are within District boundaries, we can learn several things about the population the College serves. In 2010, there were 96,126 residents of zip codes within District boundaries. This is an increase of 3,722 residents, or, 4% growth over the 2000 Census. There was a minor shift in the distribution of residents by gender. In 2000, in-District residents were 49.8% Male and 50.2% Female. In the 2010 Census, in-District residents were 50.1% Male and 49.9% Female.

One of the most notable shifts within the in-District population is age distribution. In the 2000 Census, 26.2% of the population was 18 or under and 24.9% were 55 or older. In the 2010 Census, the 18 or under group dropped to 22.7% and the 55 or over group increased to 31.2%

Using zip codes of residence as a means of identifying where people live, it is estimated by the US Census that Hispanics constitute 24.4% of in-District Mendocino County residents and 17.3% of in-district Lake County residents. In the 2000 Census, Hispanics constituted 18.0% of in-District Mendocino County residents and 13.0% of in-District Lake County residents. Combined, Hispanics represented 16.4% of the in-District population in the 2000 Census. In the 2010 Census, Hispanics represent 21.9% of the total in-District population as shown in Figure 4. This means that Hispanics are the second largest ethnic group within the District.

22

4.24% 1.55% 0.82%

21.95%

0.12%

0.15%

2.73%

68.44%

American Indian and Alaska Native

Asian

Black or African American

Hispanic or Latino

Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander

Some other race

Two or more races

White

Figure 4: Proportional distribution of in-District population as determined by Zip Code of residence. Source: 2010 US Census.

The largest numbers of Hispanic residents in Mendocino County reside in Ukiah. A total of 9.257 residents of Ukiah are Hispanic, representing 62.5% of all in-district Hispanics in Mendocino County. In Lake County in-district, the largest number of Hispanics resides in Kelseyville. The 2,456 Hispanic residents represent 42.38% of all in-district residents in Lake County who identified as Hispanic.

Economic IndicatorsThe number of individuals living below the poverty line in the Mendocino College service area is higher than the state average. According to the American Community Survey (US Census Bureau), 15.8% of all Californians lived below the poverty line in 2010, up from 13.1% in 2006. For Lake County, 22.0% of the population lived below the poverty line in 2010 compared to 17.4% in 2006. In Mendocino County, 20.0% of the population lived below the poverty line in 2010 compared to 16.9% in 2006. Within both counties, more than 30% of children live below

23

the poverty line. These statistics place Lake County and Mendocino County among the ten counties in California with the highest poverty rates (American Community Survey, 2010).

This low socio-economic condition of the district is underlined by other indicators. For example, the median household income for the State is $57,708 in 2010 whereas it is $40,536 in Mendocino County and $34,910 in Lake County. For California as a whole, this is a decline of about $4,000 from the 2001 estimate. For Lake County, it is a decline of about $6,000 and for Mendocino County, a decline of only about $2000. As these economic indicators suggest, while the recession has impacted the California economy, it has been particularly difficult for Lake and Mendocino Counties. Continued poverty may present a serious challenge for many families and individuals in the Mendocino College district.

K-12 EducationIn Mendocino County, according to the California Department of Education (ED-Data), the total number of students in K-12 continues to decline from 15,963 in 1996-97 to 13,620 in 2007-08 to 12,946 in 2009-10. By comparison, the overall K-12 population in Lake County has dropped slightly from 10,187 in 1996-97 to 9,809 in 2007-08 to 8,857 in 2009-10. In 2009-10, the number of students enrolled in grade 12 is at historical lows for both counties. In Lake County, the 664 students enrolled in grade 12 in 2009-10 is less than the previous low in 2002-03. In Mendocino County, the 1,076 students enrolled in grade 12 are at about the same level as 2006-07. Within the overall picture, a particular trend suggests that the actual number of local high school graduates will decline over the next decade, as shown in Table 1, which looks at enrollment projections at several key points.

Grade Level Mendocino Lake Total

12th Grade 1.058 664 1,722

7th Grade 986 708 1,694

1st Grade 982 673 1,655

Table 1: K-12 Enrollments in Mendocino and Lake Counties, 2009-10. Source: California Dept. of Education

Table 1 illustrates the shrinking enrollments in K-12 in Mendocino County. Based upon these statistics, we can expect a decline of about 6.8% below current levels in the number of graduates from Mendocino County schools in 2015, when the 7 th grade cohort graduates. Further out, in 2022, the cohort currently in 1st grade will be roughly the same size as the 7 th

grade cohort. In Lake County, however, there seems to be a projected resurgence in high school graduates in the future. The 2009-10 7th grade cohort represents a 6.6% increase over

24

the 2009-10 12th grade cohort with a drop off in the 1st grade cohort, scheduled to graduate in 2022. However, these projections will also feel the negative of the large drop-out rates experienced in both counties and population out-migration.

According to the California Postsecondary Education Commission (CPEC), the average capture rate (the percentage of in-district high school graduates attending Mendocino College the following year) has been fairly steady. Over the period 1998-2008, the average capture rate for Mendocino College is .242 (24.2%), ranging from a low of .209 in 2002 to a high of .278 in 2005. Generally, the capture rate for Mendocino College has been considerably less than the statewide capture rate for all community colleges. For all California community colleges, the average capture rate has been .321.

In 2008, the gap has narrowed significantly, from both ends. The capture rate for Mendocino College grew from .209 (20.9% of in-District high school graduates) to .314 (31.4%) in 2007 before slipping back to .298 for 2008. At the same time, the capture rate for all community colleges in California declined by 6.9%, from .320 to .298 in 2007. However, the State rebounded to an overall capture rate of .323 in 2008. For 2009, however, the capture rate dropped precipitously. According to CPEC data, the capture rate for Mendocino County dropped to .0834 and the capture rate for Lake County dropped to .059. However, inspection of College data indicates that the CPEC data is overly conservative and may reflect our own difficulties with early Datatel submissions to the State. Looking at data from our Datamart, the capture rate is estimated to be about 18.2% overall, still considerably below projections in Figure 5. CPEC also reports issues with data reported from the individual high schools.

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

0.000

0.050

0.100

0.150

0.200

0.250

0.300

0.350

0.400

0.450

0.500

0.252

0.231 0.230

0.232

0.233

0.267

0.2090.240

0.251

0.278

0.303

0.314

0.298

0.284

0.288

0.293

0.298

0.302

0.307

0.311

Actual capture rate Forecasted capture rate

25

Figure 5: Actual and forecast Capture Rate for graduating in-district High School graduates based upon CPEC capture rate data.

Figure 5 shows a slow linear growth pattern. The predicted rate is 0.311 in 2015, slightly exceeding our highest-ever capture rate of 0.303 in 2006.

Employment and the EconomyEmployment as an indicator of economic activity has grown very slowly in the two counties served by Mendocino College. According to the California Department of Labor, employment in Mendocino County has grown by 4,970 employed individuals between December, 1990 and December 2007, an overall growth of 18.1%. This is less than 1% growth per year over the past 17 years. By comparison, employment in California grew by 41.4% over the same period.

As a consequence of the economic turmoil of the past 36 months, the employment situation in Mendocino and Lake Counties has suffered. In July 2009, the number of employed people in Mendocino County dropped to 39,000, a decline of 1,880 in 12 months and a level lower than in July 2000. Similarly, in Lake County, the number of employed dropped to 21,590. As of August 2011, unemployment in Mendocino County was estimated to be 10.7% and in Lake County, 19.7%. By comparison, the overall unemployment rate for California was 11.9% (Source: California EDD). Table 2 summarizes employment by industry for Mendocino County.

CES Industry Title !990 2000 2007 2009August 2011

1990-2011

Change

Total Farm 1,430 2,020 2,080 1,900 1,630 200

Natural Resources, Mining & Construction

1,630 2,050 1,550 1,710 1,360 -270

Durable Goods 2,150 3,120 1,480 1,080 920 -1,230

Nondurable Goods 1,430 1,690 1,300 1,390 1,180 -250

Wholesale Trade 540 660 760 710 680 140

Retail Trade 4,340 4,720 4,720 4,360 4,390 50

Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities

750 710 570 620 530 -220

Information 400 510 380 360 310 -90

Financial Activities 1,130 990 1,250 1,180 1,180 50

Professional and Business 1,210 1,720 1,860 1,880 1,880 670

26

Services

Educational and Health Services

3,230 3,430 3,780 3,650 3,650 420

Leisure and Hospitality 3,120 3,650 4,150 3,800 3,810 690

Other Services 770 790 770 710 740 -30

Federal Government 350 290 250 320 280 -70

State Government 500 490 490 620 580 80

Local Government 4,380 5,730 6,940 5,650 5,970 1,590

Total Wage and Salary27,360

32,570

32,330 29,940 29,080 1,720

Table 2: Employment by Industry in Mendocino County, selected years. Source: California Economic Development Department (EDD)

In terms of Total Wage and Salary employment, Mendocino County has shown some growth between 1990 and 2011, with a net overall increase of 1,720 jobs. However, if measured from 2000, the news is much grimmer. Between 2000 and 2009, Mendocino County lost a total of 2,630 jobs, nearly 10%. Between 2009 and August 2011, Mendocino County lost another 860 jobs.

Within the declining economy, there is substantial change occurring. Mendocino County continues its transition to a post-industrial, service-based economy. The largest growth segments over this period continue to be Local Government (1590) and Leisure and Hospitality (690), despite an overall drop in employment from 2009 to 2011. To an extent, this has offset losses in Durable Goods Manufacturing (-1230), Nondurable Goods Manufacturing (-250) and Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities (-220). One indicator of the effect of the recession has been the drop in Natural Resources, Mining and Construction. While the overall decline over this period (1990 – 2011) is 270 jobs, between 2009 and 2011, the decline in this industry was 350 jobs.

Lake County, like Mendocino County, is making the transition to a post-industrial, service-based economy as shown in Table 3. One indicator of this transition is the loss of 750 jobs in Natural Resources, Mining and Construction being offset by the growth of 720 jobs in Educational and Health Services. One big difference between the two counties’ transition is the growth in Total Farm employment (940 jobs between 1990 and 2011) reflecting the growth of the wine industry and viticulture in eastern Lake County.

27

In absolute numbers of employment, Lake County has also experienced growth similar to Mendocino County, with 2,850 new jobs developed between 1990 and 2009. However, nearly 300 were lost to the recession by August 2011. Proportionally, however, their growth has been much greater. In 1990, 10,710 people were employed in Lake County. By 2009, that had risen to 13,560, a total growth of 26.6%. As with Mendocino County, this growth also reflects the loss of 1,410 jobs between 2007 and 2009 and further job loss between 2009 and August 2011.

The loss of 250 jobs in Leisure and Hospitality reflects the closing of the Konocti Harbor Resort area. Table 3 shows the economic growth by industry for Lake County.

CES Industry Title 1990 2000 2007 2009August

2011

1999-2011

Change

Total Farm 530 610 960 1,140 1,470 940

Natural Resources, Mining and Construction

1,120 710 860 630 370 -750

Durable Goods 200 230 120 100 70 -130

Nondurable Goods 180 260 200 250 210 30

Wholesale Trade 150 210 160 190 140 -10

Retail Trade 1,640 2,000 2,120 1,950 2,000 340

Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities

120 220 660 570 510 390

Information 150 170 170 130 130 -20

Financial Activities 630 440 430 380 340 -290

Professional and Business Services 430 1,070 650 630 580 150

Educational and Health Services 1,340 1,720 2,220 2,190 2,060 720

Leisure and Hospitality 1,100 1,300 1,420 1,450 1,200 100

Other Services 360 360 340 330 360 0

Federal Government 180 140 170 130 230 50

State Government 180 180 160 190 200 20

Local Government 2,400 3,520 4,330 3,300 3,390 990

Total Wage and Salary 10,710 13,130 14,970 13,560 13,290 2,580

28

Table 3: Employment by Industry in Lake County, selected years. Source: California Employment Development Department (EDD)

A fundamental issue in assessing the growth in Lake County is that it is not possible to disaggregate the data to reflect the portion of the County included in the District from the portion of the County outside of District boundaries. With most of the population growth taking place in the south and east portions of the county (outside District boundaries), one might assume that the large part of this economic growth may also have occurred outside the area served by the College.

A recent report by the Public Policy Institute of California (May, 2007) suggests that California is facing a looming shortage of college-educated individuals to fill the workforce. In the past, this gap has been filled by in-migration. However, due to economic factors in California (e.g. housing costs, energy costs) this supply will likely dwindle and California will need to look inward. To some extent, this is already the case for Lake County and Mendocino County. As shown in Table 4, both Lake County and Mendocino County were substantially below California in the number of college-trained workers in 2005.

Education Level

Mendocino County Lake County California

2005 2010 2005 2010 2005 2010

Associate's Degree

5,828 4,852 3,459 3769 1,757,763 1,831,387

BA/BS 9,096 7,779 4,393 4581 4,315,638 4,602,565

Grad/Prof 5,275 5,412 2,187 2511 2,395,589 2,650,962

Total 20,199 18,043 10,039 10861 8,648,990

Total Population (25 yrs. and older)

59,126 59,194 44,436 44,240 23,080,916 24,097,200

Percentage College

Educated34.16% 30.5% 22.6% 24.6% 36.69% 37.7%

Table 4: Educational Attainment among adults 25 years and older (Source: US Census Bureau, American Fact Finder)

29

More recently, it has been stated by various sources that California will need to have a larger population of college-trained adults to pull the economy forward. However, it appears that Mendocino and Lake County are still behind the State, as a whole. Overall, 37.7% of Californians are estimated to have a college degree. This is up about one percentage point from the 2005 estimates. Lake County, according to 2010 estimates is still far behind the State, with only 24.6% of adults with a college degree. However, this is up two percentage points from 2005.

Mendocino County is somewhat closer to the State totals than Lake County. Unfortunately, Mendocino County has experienced a “brain drain” in the past five years. In 2005, it was estimated that 34.16% of adults over the age of 25 had a college degree. In the 2010 estimate, that percentage has dropped to 30.5%. In 2005 Mendocino County was only 2.5 percentage points below the State total. In 2010, that gap increased to 7.2 percentage points.

Projected Job Growth

Information sources from both the State of California and the Federal government project continued growth in the sectors where most people are currently employed. Overall, the California Employment development Department (CEDD) projects an employment increase of 6.2%, from an annual average employment of 118,180 in 2008 to an annual average employment of 125,540 in 2008 for the North Coast region1. This is an estimated net growth of 727 jobs per year. Professional and Business Services are estimated to have the largest proportional growth over the period, 19.2% with the largest absolute growth in Retail Trade, with 1,930 jobs.

Within the region, the CEDD projects that each year between 20018 and 2018, on average, 110 job openings will be in occupations requiring an AA degree and another 117 will require postsecondary vocational education.

In the past, Registered Nurse has been considered as a principal growth area for jobs. Previous projections suggested a growth of 11.3% between 2006 and 2016. However, in the more recent projections, for 2008-2018, two other occupations eclipse Registered Nurse. Physical Therapist Assisting has a projected growth rate of 20% over the 2008-2018 period (about 10 positions). Similarly, Veterinary Technician is expected to grow by 18% (20 jobs) over the same period. However, Registered Nursing is projected to generate many more jobs, 260, than the others combined.

The projection of “Fastest Growing” occupations continues to evolve as the nature of the regional economy and population evolves. Table 5 illustrates the Fastest Growing Occupations in the North Coast region requiring AA degrees or Postsecondary Training (e.g. Certificate program) from three studies, 2001, 2006 and 2008.1 CEDD does not disaggregate for Mendocino and Lake Counties. The “North Coast” region includes Mendocino, Lake, Del Norte and Humboldt Counties.

30

31

Fastest Growing Occupations 2002-2012 Respiratory TherapistEnvironmental Science and ProtectionTechnicianMedical Records and Health Information TechnicianComputer Support SpecialistParalegal and Legal Assistant

Fastest Growing Occupations 2006-2016 Registered NursesComputer Support SpecialistsGaming dealersSlot Key PersonsEmergency Medical Technicians and Paramedic

Fastest Growing Occupations 2008-2018 Registered NursesDental HygienistsHairdressers, Hairstylists and CosmetologistsWelders, Cutters SolderersAutomotive Service TechniciansMedical Secretaries

Table 5: Fastest Growing Occupations 2002-2012 v. 2006-2016 v. 2008-2018, North Coast Region. Source: California Economic Development Department (http://www.labormarketinfo.edd.ca.gov)

In the 2002 projections, emphasis was on medical paraprofessionals, “white-collar” paraprofessionals and environmental technicians. In 2006, while the medical paraprofessional positions still are considered among the top 5, at least two of the positions are now in the gaming industry, reflecting the growth of that sector of the economy.

32

Occupations with Most Job Openings 2001-2012

Automotive Service and Technician Fitness Trainers and Aerobic

Instructors Gaming Dealers Licensed Professional Nurses and

Licensed Vocational Nurses Bus and Truck Mechanics and Diesel

Engine SpecialistsOccupations with Most Job Openings 2006-2016

Registered Nurses Gaming Dealers Automotive Service Technicians and

MechanicsOccupations with Most Job Openings 2008-2018

Registered Nurses Automotive Service Technicians and

Mechanics Medical Secretaries Licensed Practical Nurses

Table 6: Occupations with most job openings requiring AA degree or Postsecondary vocational education. Comparison of 2002 projection, 2006 projection and 2008 projection. Source, California Economic Development Department (http://www.labormarketinfo.edd.ca.gov).

The projections provided by the CEDD provide an occupational roadmap regarding where change is expected. This change reflects both new jobs in the occupation as well as replacement jobs within the occupation. Table 7 abstracts the ten occupations with the most positive change (new jobs plus replacements) and the ten occupations with the least change. This includes all occupations and not those which require an AA or some other Postsecondary training.

33

Overall positive change 2008 2018Net

ChangePercent Change

Retail Sales Workers 8,260 9,320 1,060 12.8%

Retail Sales Persons 3,580 4,220 640 17.9%Health Diagnosing and Treating Practitioners 2,870 3,250 380 13.2%Cashiers 3,770 4,130 360 9.5%

Food and Beverage Serving Workers 5,480 5,810 330 6.0%Construction Trades Workers 4,570 4,840 270 5.9%

Registered Nurses 1,650 1,910 260 15.8%

Business Operations Specialists 2,160 2,410 250 11.6%

Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food 2,180 2,430 250 11.5%Other Personal Care and Service Workers 5,170 5,400 230 4.4%

Overall negative 2006 2016Net

ChangePercent Change

Forest, Conservations and Logging Workers 1.090 1,070 -70 -6.4%Housekeeping Cleaners 1,350 1,300 -50 -1.3%Law Enforcement Workers 1,670 1,620 -50 -1.3%Fallers (Tree Cutter) 280 240 -40 -14.3%Packaging and Filling Machine Operators and Tenders 400 360 -40 -10.0%Postal Service Mail Sorters, Processors, and Processing Machine Operators 90 60 -30 -33.3%

Gaming Cage Workers 120 90 -30 -25.0%Payroll and Timing Clerks 280 250 -30 -10.7%Secretaries, Except Legal, Medical and Executive 990 960 -30 -3.0%Correctional Officers and Jailers 1,020 990 -30 -2.9%

Top Executives 1,820 1,790 -30 -1.6%Table 7: Ten occupations with the most positive change and ten occupations with the most negative change, 2008-2018, North Coast region. Source: California Economic Development Department (http://www.labormarketinfo.edd.ca.gov).

34

The twenty occupations abstracted from the CEDD data indicate the continued change in emphasis in the North Coast economy. In the 2006 estimates, the declines are in areas that reflect a loss of manufacturing jobs, natural resource exploitation and construction. For 2008, that remains true although there are small declines in white collar occupations. The “declines” reflect an assumption that declines as a result of the recession have pretty much “bottomed out” and there are few jobs left in these occupations to eliminate.

Alternatively, the ten growing occupations in 2006 reflected reflect growth primarily in the retail industry and food service industries. Education, both K-12 and postsecondary also will be a growing sector; however many of these positions will be replacement positions rather than growth. Updated to 2008, there is still projected growth in retail and food services. Growth in the health care area has displaced Education as a likely growth area for educated, skilled workers. It is interesting that growth in “Construction Trades” is forecast. This must reflect some assumptions for the “out years” regarding the local economy.

Moving beyond our immediate economic area, Table 8 shows the top five occupations requiring either an AA/AS degree or Postsecondary vocational training in each of the counties/regions to the south of Mendocino County and Lake County which comprise the greater Bay Area. The exceptions are Solano County and San Jose region where only three occupations meet this required education profile.

35

Region Occupation Total ChangeOakland Registered Nurses 4530

Medical Secretaries 1640Fitness Trainers and Aerobics Instructors 1100Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses 1100Dental Hygienists 730

Napa Registered Nurses 250Massage Therapists 160Fitness Trainers and Aerobics Instructors 40Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses 40Insurance Sales Agents 30

Sonoma Registered Nurses 760Medical Secretaries 310Fitness Trainers and Aerobics Instructors 230Dental Hygienists 100Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses 100

SF Metro Fitness Trainers and Aerobics Instructors 920Biological Technicians 220Dental Hygienists 170Veterinary Technologists and Technicians 140Surgical Technologists 110

San Jose Fitness Trainers and Aerobics Instructors 480Paralegals and Legal Assistants 320Dental Hygienists 130

Solano Registered Nurses 1,130Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses 270Medical Secretaries 260

Table 8: Occupations requiring either an AA/AS or Postsecondary vocational training with greatest growth projected, 2008-2018. Note: Oakland includes Alameda and Contra cost counties; SF Metro includes Marin, San Francisco and Sane Mateo counties; San Jose includes Santa Clara and San Benito counties. Source: California Economic Development Department (http://www.labormarketinfo.edd.ca.gov).

Throughout the region, Registered Nurse is the single occupation with the greatest potential for growth, even though it does not make the list for either the SF Metro region or the San Jose region. This data also suggests a continued need for various Allied Health professions and “Fitness and Aerobics Instructors”.

However, these are occupations which our sister institutions in those areas already have robust programs. Every community college district serving the six areas in Table 8 maintains a robust Nursing program. The number of Registered Nurses produced by these programs grew by more than 24% between 2006-07 and 2010-11, with growth from 1,154 graduates to 1,432 graduates per year. As shown in Figure 6, the average number of graduates from community college

36

districts serving the six regions in Table 8 is close to exceeding the projected annual need in the all of the occupations shown in Table 8.

Registered Nurse

LPN/LVN

Dental Hygienist

Surgical Tech

Veterinary Tech

Biological Tech

Medical Secretary

Fitness Trainer

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

1340

225.2

95.6

34

8.75

79.2

78

28

667

141

113

11

14

22

221

185

Average Annual Need (2008 - 2018) Average Annual Grads (2006-07 thru 2010-11)

Figure 6: Comparison of average number of graduates produced from community colleges in greater Bay Area, 2006-07 thru 2010-11 and the average annual need for occupations 2008-2018. Sources: CCCCO Datamart and California Economic Development Department (http://www.labormarketinfo.edd.ca.gov).

In only two occupations, “Fitness Trainer” and “Medical Secretary,” does the projected annual need exceed the average annual number of graduates.

Fastest Growing OccupationsTable 9, on the other hand, shows the estimated “Fastest Growing Occupations” for the six areas making up the greater Bay Area. For each county/region, these are the positions which are estimated have the greatest percentage growth between 2008 and 2018. Virtually all of these occupations require either a Bachelor’s degree or higher or substantially less than a community college program. Only one occupation, “Fitness and Aerobics Instructor” is also on the list of occupations requiring an Associate’s degree or Postsecondary training shown in Table 8.

37

County/Region Occupation2008-2018

Change % Change % GrowthEducation

LevelOakland Biomedical Engineers 180 64.3 5.1 5

Home Health Aides 2,250 50.6 4.2 11Physician Assistants 310 41.9 3.6 5Financial Examiners 40 40 3.4 5Fitness Trainers and Aerobics Instructors 1,100 40 3.4 7

Napa Electrical and Electronic Engineering Technicians 20 50 4.1 6Pharmacy Aides 20 50 4.1 11Personal and Home Care Aides 350 49.3 4.1 11Printing Workers 40 44.4 3.7 xxInformation Security Analysts, Web Developers, and Computer Network Archite 30 42.9 3.6 5

Sonoma Personal and Home Care Aides 2,310 63.5 5 11Tax Examiners, Collectors, and Revenue Agents 30 60 4.8 5Mixing and Blending Machine Workers 40 50 4.1 9Environmental Scientists, Including Health 160 48.5 4 5Medical Scientists, Except Epidemiologists 40 44.4 3.7 2

SF Metro Biomedical Engineers 480 94.1 6.9 5Biochemists and Biophysicists 450 46.9 3.9 2Medical Scientists, Except Epidemiologists 1,770 46.6 3.9 2Information Security Analysts, Web Developers, and Computer Network Architect 1,980 44.8 3.8 5Personal and Home Care Aides 10,460 43.1 3.6 11

San Jose Biomedical Engineers 250 65.8 5.2 5Information Security Analysts, Web Developers, and Computer Network Architect 2,740 49.1 4.1 5Personal and Home Care Aides 5,850 48.2 4 11Home Health Aides 1,380 43.5 3.7 11Advertising Sales Agents 270 36.5 3.2 10

Solano CountyInformation Security Analysts, Web Developers, and Computer Network Archite 40 44.4 3.7 5Physical Therapist Aides 20 40 3.4 11Home Health Aides 460 39 3.3 11

Claims Adjusters, Examiners, and Investigators 110 37.9 3.3 5Chiropractors 10 33.3 2.9 2

Table 9: Occupations with fastest growth projected, 2008-2018. Note: Oakland includes Alameda and Contra cost counties; SF Metro includes Marin, San Francisco and Sane Mateo counties; San Jose includes Santa Clara and San Benito counties. Source: California Economic Development Department (http://www.labormarketinfo.edd.ca.gov).

38

Education Key.for Table 9 1 - First Professional Degree - LLD/MD 2 - Doctoral Degree 3 - Master's Degree 4 - Bachelor's Degree or Higher and Some Work Experience 5 - Bachelor's Degree 6 - Associate Degree 7 - Post-Secondary Vocational Education 8 - Work Experience in a Related Occupation 9 - Long-Term On-the-Job Training10 - Moderate-Term On-the-Job Training11 - Short-Term On-the-Job Trainingxx - No information available

Several caveats should be kept in mind when considering these projections: Projected job growth will not be linear. All employment is subject to larger economic

and demographic forces. The recession and the accompanying downturn, for instance severely negated earlier job growth projections.

This projection reflects the current economic downturn. As a result, many of the occupational and industrial projections reflect the impact of recession-driven retrenchment.

The projections look principally at absolute change in jobs, either positive or negative. Even in occupations where there may be little or no absolute growth, there may be considerable opportunities arising as a result of promotions, retirements, emigration or unforeseen demand.

Projections do not address the influence of the so-called “underground economy” known to exist in Mendocino and Lake Counties.

Relationships with 4-Year Institutions

According to the California Postsecondary Education Commission (CPEC), in Fall 2008, among Mendocino County high school graduates that go directly into higher education, the majority, about 65.8% (263 of 400), attend Mendocino College. Among the 26% of in-District high school graduates that attend other community colleges, 31 selected Santa Rosa Junior College.

Mendocino College, however, does not fare as well among in-district Lake County high school graduates who go on to higher education. Only 44.4% of those students (87 of 196) select Mendocino College compared to 33.6% (66 of 196) who opt to attend another community college. Of that group, the largest number, 44, selected Santa Rosa Junior College. Among the high school graduates in 2008, 43 in-district residents of Lake County and 85 in-District

39

residents of Mendocino County attended either a UC or CSU directly. Of the 128 total graduates, 52 attended a UC campus and 76 attended a CSU campus.

In terms of transfers, Mendocino College successfully transfers students to both the UC system (principally UC Davis) and the CSU system (principally Sonoma State, Humboldt State and Sacramento State). Figure 7 illustrates actual and projected transfers to UC and CSU system schools.

2000/2001

2001/2002

2002/2003

2003/2004

2004/2005

2005/2006

2006/2007

2007/2008

2008/2009

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

2013/14

2014/15

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

7

2314

18 1813

8

1814 11 1312.745454545454512.490909090909112.236363636363611.9818181818181

97

108

86

99

114

101

111

91 88

72

86.133333333332884.212121212121282.290909090909180.36969696969778.4484848484842

UC CSU

Figure 7: Actual and projected transfers from Mendocino College to UC and CSU. Source CPEC.

Using a forecast model, transfers to UC are projected (dotted line) to decline through 2014-15 while transfers to CSU schools are projected (dotted line) to grow slightly from 72 in 2009-10 to 86 in 2010/11 and then slowly tail off to 78 in 2014/15. The UC projections, however, are based upon a very small number of students and are likely to improve with a recently renewed Career & Transfer Center. The CSU project reflects a recent decline from a high of 114 in 2005 to 72 in 2009-10.

40

Mendocino College is in a somewhat unique position in that we have little or no higher education competition within the District. Within the District, students can, however, access distance education from any available public or private provider. In terms of physical facilities, though, only Dominican University and Sonoma State University2 have service centers within the District. Any other feasible provider, be it a community college or a 4-year public institution is outside the District. Both Yuba College and the College of the Redwoods have facilities within easy driving distance of population centers within the District. Santa Rosa Junior College (SRJC), the largest community college north of San Francisco (enrollment in excess of 35,000) is more than an hour’s drive from Ukiah. Moreover, SRJC’s facilities expansion has been directed to southern Sonoma County, rather than northern Sonoma County, so there is a smaller likelihood that commute times to SRJC will shrink in the future. However, because the fees of the community colleges are relatively equal (barring small local differences) there are students who opt to drive out of the district for their education.

Students opting to start at a UC or a CSU campus face two financial barriers. First, the basic fees at UC and CSU campuses are considerably higher than the typical fees at a California Community College, as shown in Table 10. Over the past several years, the fees at both the University of California and the CSU have grown considerably. From 2006-07 to 2010-11, UC fees have increased by 72.3%. During the same period, CSU fees have increased 70.4%. On the other hand, fees at the California Community Colleges have increased only 13.0%. This fee increase certainly tempers the number of students who may transfer from Mendocino to a 4 year school.

2 The Dominican University service center is located in Ukiah. It offers bachelor’s degree programs in Humanities, Cultural Studies and a Bachelor in Business/Strategic Management. Interestingly, their website stresses that getting an Associate Degree at Mendocino College is the “first step” and it emphasizes the “streamlined” articulation agreement between the two schools. The Sonoma State Service Center offers a Teacher Credentialing program on the Ukiah campus.

41

Year UC CSU CCC

1999-00 $3903 $1830 $330

2000-01 $3964 $1839 $330

2001-02 $3859 $1876 $330

2002-03 $4017 $2005 $330

2003-04 $5530 $2572 $540

2004-05 $6312 $2916 $780

2005-06 $6802 $3164 $690

2006-07 $6802 $3164 $690

2007-08 $7517 $3521 $600

2008-09 $8020 $3797 $600

2009-10 $9,311 $4,893 $780

2010-11 $11,279 $5,390 $780

2011-12 (Projected) $13,218 $6,422 $1.080

Table 10: Total Fees for a Full-time Student (in-state) in real dollars for 2 semesters. Source: CPEC

It should be noted that these are closer to the average fees a student may be charged. The inclusion of local campus fees, especially at the UC, allows actual fees at campuses to vary widely. In fact, UC Davis has the highest undergraduate fee structure in the system.

The second financial barrier is simply the cost of living. UC campuses are situated in many of the highest cost of living areas in the state (e.g. Berkeley, Los Angeles, San Diego, Santa Barbara, and Davis) where basic costs for rent, food, and utilities are considerably more expensive than Ukiah. Students opting to commute from their home residence within the District to either a UC or CSU campus face continued rising gasoline prices. Not reflected in this table are the fee increases enacted for the 2009-10 year. For community colleges, per unit fees

42

have been increased to $36/unit. Fees will likely increase to $46/unit for Summer 2012. However, UC has implemented major increases and projects a further increase in fees of 32% for Spring 2010 and Fall 2010.

State Budget ConcernsClearly, the budget of the State of California is an external force which directly impacts Mendocino College, either positively or negatively. State budgets typically reflect the “boom-bust” cycle of the State economy. State funding is the primary provider of financial support at community colleges. As we move through the “bust” cycle, this will mean reduced funding to Mendocino College in the form of:

Little or no annual “Cost of Living Adjustments” (COLA) Enrollment caps/funding cuts Matching funds for facilities

The imposition of enrollment caps may place us in a position of conflict with regard to pressures to serve more students, since the “caps” limit the number of additional FTES which the State proposes to fund. Since student fees provide about 11% of the funding for community colleges, this may lead to hard decisions on enrollment. In recent years, California Community Colleges have been subjected to funding cuts from State General Fund in various ways. It is likely that further cuts as well as fee increases may be experienced in 2011/12 pending State tax collections. In out years, further funding reductions may be implemented depending upon California’s economic recovery.

According to CPEC, in 2010-11 the State supports, through General Fund allocations, the University of California at a rate of $12,389/FTES, down from $14,719/FTES in 2007-08. The CSU is funded at $7,570/FTES in 2010-11, down from $8,344/FTES in 2007-08. Lastly, community colleges are funded at a rate of $4,997/FTES in 2010-11, down from $5,489/FTES in 2007-08. The defeat of Proposition 92 (February, 2008) means that community colleges will remain within the Prop 98 funding mechanism. While there are several formulae within Proposition 98 which control funding, the basics are:

Funding is linked to growth in the K-12 population Funding is a minimum of 39% of the General Fund

Within the Prop 98 funding, community colleges generally receive less than 11% of the funding made available under Prop 98

43

Community Needs and DemandsWhile most of the external trends are functions of events or forces at the national or state level, Mendocino College also needs to be sensitive to the changing needs and demands of the community which it serves. This means reviewing the mix of academic programs and courses offered. In a period of limited resources, the College may not be able to be “all things to all people” and will need to decide on measured responses to particular constituencies. For example, the development and offering of a new degree or vocational program may not be possible within the College’s current level of resources. The college will need to evolve the process for deciding on the allocation of resources for various programmatic needs and community services or the development of new, alternative funding sources.

Internal TrendsInternally, the trends which affect the College the most are related to its student population. In many respects, the student population is representative of the greater community which the College serves.

Student Enrollment: GenderSince Fall 2000, the proportional distribution of students according to gender has been remarkably stable, as shown in Figure 8A. Over time, the student body at Mendocino College has averaged 63.0% female and 37.0% male. Over the course of semesters between Fall 2000 and Spring 2011, there has been less than a percentage point of variance from the average values in any given semester. However, the gender distribution has been different for first-time students. Among first-time students, the gender proportion has been more or less equal, as shown in Figure 8B, with an average semester distribution of 51.9% of first-time students female and 48.1% of first-time students male. Over time, there has been a shift in the proportions so that the female/male distribution has moved closer to a 50-50 division in any given semester. In fact, in Fall 2009 and Spring 2010, the proportion of first-time students who were males exceeded 50%.

44

Fall 2

000

Sprin

g 2001

Fall 2

001

Sprin

g 2002

Fall 2

002

Sprin

g 2003

Fall 2

003

Sprin

g 2004

Fall 2

004

Sprin

g 2005

Fall 2

005

Sprin

g 2006

Fall 2

006

Sprin

g 2007

Fall 2

007

Sprin

g 2008

Fall 2

008

Sprin

g 2009

Fall 2

009*

Sprin

g 2010*

Fall 2

010

Sprin

g 2011

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

Female Male

Figure 8A: Proportional distribution of students by Gender; Fall 2000 through Spring 2011

Fall 2

000

Sprin

g 2001

Fall 2

001

Sprin

g 2002

Fall 2

002

Sprin

g 2003

Fall 2

003

Sprin

g 2004

Fall 2

004

Sprin

g 2005

Fall 2

005

Sprin

g 2006

Fall 2

006

Sprin

g 2007

Fall 2

007

Sprin

g 2008

Fall 2

008

Sprin

g 2009

Fall 2

009*

Sprin

g 2010*

Fall 2

010

Sprin

g 2011

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

Female Male

Figure 8B: Proportional distribution of First-time students by Gender, Fall 2000 through Spring 2011. Source: CCCCO Referential Data Files

45

Student Enrollment: EthnicityThe mix of student-reported ethnicity at Mendocino College, over the past ten years, has closely mirrored the changing proportional distribution of ethnicity within Mendocino and Lake Counties. Figure 9 illustrates the proportional distribution of enrolled students in Fall 2000 and in Spring 2011.

In several respects, the projected trend in ethnic distribution of students mirrors projected changes in the population of Mendocino (and to a lesser extent) Lake County. The proportion of White students is projected slowly decline. From Fall 2000 to Spring 2011, the proportion of White students declined from 80.8% to 56.6.

This change is offset by two increasing trends. First, the proportion of Hispanic students has increased from 10.3% in Fall 2000 to 23.9% in Spring 2011. This trend is projected to continue. The second trend is an increase in the proportion of students who decline to state or fail to report an ethnic identity. In Fall 2000, this group accounted for 1.2% of enrolled students. By Spring 2010, the proportion had grown to 9.0%.

Among First-time students, the change is much more pronounced, as shown in Figure 10. In Fall 2000, White students accounted for 73.7% of all First-time enrolled students. In Spring 2011, that percentage had declined to 47.1%. The demographic shift which took place over the ten years has led to an increasing proportion of Hispanic students. 15.3% of enrolled First-time students self-identified as Hispanic in Fall 2000. By Spring 2011, that percentage had increased to 35.1%.

46

4.33% 1.78%1.27%

10.34%

80.76%

0.42% 1.11%Fall 2000

American Indian/Alaskan NativeAsianBlack, Non-HispanicHispanicWhite, Non-HispanicNative Hawaiian/Pacific IslanderTwo or more RacesUnknown/No Response

4% 2%2%

24%

57%

1%

2% 9%

Spring 2011

American Indian/Alaskan NativeAsianBlack, Non-HispanicHispanicWhite, Non-HispanicNative Hawaiian/Pacific IslanderTwo or more RacesUnknown/No Response

Figure 9: Distribution of all enrolled students by Ethnicity, Fall 2000 and Spring 2011. Source: CCCCO referential data files.

47

5.63% 1.07% 1.88%

15.28%

73.73%

0.67%1.74%

Fall 2000

American Indian/Alaskan NativeAsianBlack, Non-HispanicHispanicWhite, Non-HispanicNative Hawaiian/Pacific IslanderTwo or more RacesUnknown/No Response

1.95%

1.46% 1.71% 35.12%

47.07%

1.22%

2.20% 9.27%

Spring 2011

American Indian/Alaskan NativeAsianBlack, Non-HispanicHispanicWhite, Non-HispanicNative Hawaiian/Pacific IslanderTwo or more RacesUnknown/No Response

Figure 10: Distribution of all enrolled First-time students by Ethnicity, Fall 2000 and Spring 2011. Source: CCCCO referential data files.

Over the past decade, both the number of Hispanic students and the proportion of the student population they represent have been increasing, as shown in Figure 11.

48

Fall 2000

Spring 2

001

Fall 2001

Spring 2

002

Fall 2002

Spring 2

003

Fall 2003

Spring 2

004

Fall 2004

Spring 2

005

Fall 2005

Spring 2

006

Fall 2006

Spring 2

007

Fall 2007

Spring 2

008

Fall 2008

Spring 2

009

Fall 2009

Spring 2

010

Fall 2010

Spring 2

011

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

495

1162

% Of Total N of Students

N of

Stud

ents

Perce

nt of

Tota

l Stu

dent

Popu

lation

Figure 11: Number of Hispanic students and proportion of total students they represent. Fall 2000 through Spring 2011. Source: CCCCO Referential Data Files.

In Fall 2000, there were 495 Hispanic students enrolled in Mendocino College, representing 10.3% of the student population. By Spring 2011, the number of students had nearly tripled, to 1162, which represented 23.9% of the total student population. Looking at Figure 11, one can see that since Fall 2008, both the number of enrolled Hispanic students and the proportion of total students they represent has accelerated. Since Fall 2008, the number of Hispanic students has grown, on average by about 70 students each semester. Fall 2010 was the only semester that did not show growth in the number of Hispanic students from the previous semester.

Much like the general population within the District, Hispanic students are generally younger than their non-Hispanic counterparts, as shown in Figure 12. In Fall 2010 the largest single group of non-Hispanic students, 15.2%, were in the 50-64 Age category. Over 40% of the non-Hispanic population was 35 or older. The largest group of Hispanic students, 22.4%, was in the 18-19 age group. Overall, almost 50% of Hispanic students were 21 years of age or less.

49

Under 18 18 - 19 20 - 21 22 - 24 25 - 29 30 - 34 35 - 39 40 - 49 50 -64 65 +0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

9.7%

22.4%

16.9%

11.8%10.3%

7.8%6.5%

9.3%

4.7%

0.6%

7.2%

14.9%

10.9%9.9%

11.8%

8.8%

5.9%

11.1%

15.2%

4.4%

Hispanic Student Non-Hispanic Student

IPEDs Age Categories

Figure 12: Age distribution of Fall 2010 enrolled students; Hispanic and non-Hispanic students by IPEDs age categories. Source: CCCCO Referential data files.

The experience of recruiting new Hispanic students has not shown the same type of growth as illustrated in Figure 13.

50

Fall 2000

Spring 2

001

Fall 2001

Spring 2

002

Fall 2002

Spring 2

003

Fall 2003

Spring 2

004

Fall 2004

Spring 2

005

Fall 2005

Spring 2

006

Fall 2006

Spring 2

007

Fall 2007

Spring 2

008

Fall 2008

Spring 2

009

Fall 2009

Spring 2

010

Fall 2010

Spring 2

011

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

% of Total N of students

N of

Stud

ents

Prop

ortio

n of

Tota

l FTF

Figure 13: Number of Hispanic First-time Freshmen and proportion of total First-time Freshmen they represent. Fall 2000 through Spring 2011. Source: CCCCO Referential Data Files.

The number of Hispanic First-time freshmen varies considerably from semester to semester over the past decade. Part of this is attributable to the natural variation that occurs between Fall semester, when more recent high school grads tend to enroll for the first time and Spring semester, which tends to have fewer first-time freshmen overall as well as more older students.

51

Student Enrollment: Age

Over the past ten years, the student body at Mendocino College has become slightly younger, as shown in Figure 14.

Fall 2000

Spring 2

001

Fall 2001

Spring 2

002

Fall 2002

Spring 2

003

Fall 2003

Spring 2

004

Fall 2004

Spring 2

005

Fall 2005

Spring 2

006

Fall 2006

Spring 2

007

Fall 2007

Spring 2

008

Fall 2008

Spring 2

009

Fall 2009

Spring 2

010

Fall 2010

Spring 2

011

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

34.9834.1 34.39 34.85 34.09 34.05 34.37 33.75 33.58 33.2 31.38

29.07

33.05

27.57

33.31

26.44

32.81

26.98

31.49

26.39

32.1125.25

32.52

26.24

31.0424.69

30.82

25.39

31.48

26.85

31.1

27.26

29.6

All Students First-Time

Figure 14: Average age by semester for all enrolled students and for First-time enrolled students. Source: CCCCO Referential Data Files.

In Fall 2000, the average age of all enrolled students was 34.98 years of age. By Spring 2011, that average age had steadily declined to 31.38 years of age. The more interesting analysis is the average age of First-time students. For all semester, the average age of First-time students is less than the average age for all enrolled students. In Fall semesters, the average age of First-time students is considerably less than the average age of all students and has not experienced as much change as the overall average. In Fall 2000, the average age of First-time students was 29.07 years and in Fall 2010, the average age was 27.26 years. In Spring semester, the average age increases for First-time students to the extent that it is about one year less than the overall average. This reflects the fact that Fall semester experiences the largest wave of recent high school graduates in the younger age groups. This is evident in Figure 15, which illustrates the distribution of First-time students by age for each semester.

52

Fall 2

000

Sprin

g 2001

Fall 2

001

Sprin

g 2002

Fall 2

002

Sprin

g 2003

Fall 2

003

Sprin

g 2004

Fall 2

004

Sprin

g 2005

Fall 2

005

Sprin

g 2006

Fall 2

006

Sprin

g 2007

Fall 2

007

Sprin

g 2008

Fall 2

008

Sprin

g 2009

Fall 2

009

Sprin

g 2010

Fall 2

010

Sprin

g 2011

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

65 +50 -6440 - 4935 - 3930 - 3425 - 2922 - 2420 - 2118 - 19Under 18

Figure 15. Age distribution of First-time student by semester, Fall 2000 through Spring 2011. Source: CCCCO Referential Data Files.

As Figure 15 illustrates, in Fall semesters, the 18-19 year old students, predominantly recent high school graduates, comprise about 45.8% of all First-time students.. In Spring semesters, that average declines to 19.7% of First-time students; although, the actual percentage has been increasing slightly the last few Spring semesters. In Spring semesters, First-time students are dominated by adult students, mainly between the ages of 25-29 and 30 -34.

One of the fundamental enrollment trends focuses upon students ages 17-26 who are residents of Mendocino County. These students have the highest FTES-to-headcount ratio and generate well over 50% of the FTES for the College, with only about 28.2% of the enrollment of credit students. Over the past ten years, they have generated an increasing share of credit student enrollments and are projected to increase in coming years, as shown in Figure 16.

53

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

20102011

20122013

20142015

20162017

20182019

20202021

0.000

0.050

0.100

0.150

0.200

0.250

0.300

0.350

0.400

0.450

0.110 0.115 0.107 0.099 0.104 0.110 0.118 0.127 0.137 0.148 0.1550.157

0.240

0.2770.291 0.289

0.3020.328 0.337

0.3520.367

0.3820.3970.405

Portion of Cohort Attending MC Portion of MC Enrollment Attributed to Cohort

Projected

Figure 16: Projection of enrollment trends for 17-26 year olds in Mendocino County. Source: California Department of Finance and CCCCO referential data files

What Figure 16 also illustrates is that while the portion of MC Enrollment attributed to this cohort is projected to increase from .328 to .405, the actual portion of the 17-26 year old cohort which is projected to attend Mendocino College will have relatively flat growth, from .110 to ,157. In Fact, from 2000 to 2010, there was not net change in the proportion of the 17-26 year old cohort of Mendocino County residents which attended Mendocino College.

The consequence, as shown in Figure 17, is a projection of declining enrollments through Fall 2021. This projection is based upon current trends in enrollment coupled with projected demographic trends by the California Department of Finance. This illustrates a projection that overall enrollments will experience a slight decline from Fall 20113 through Fall 2021. At the same time, the proportion of our enrollments attributed to the 17-26 year olds from Mendocino County represents a greater portion of our student population.

3 This projection illustrates the limits of statistical analysis to project trends. In Fall 2011, enrollment dropped sharply from Fall 2010 because of budget concerns which resulted in about 10% fewer course-sections being offered.

54

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

20102011

20122013

20142015

20162017

20182019

20202021

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

0.000

0.050

0.100

0.150

0.200

0.250

0.300

0.350

0.400

0.450

4786

5356

490449614750464147144742

4947507647104770.909090909074754.136363636374737.363636363684720.590909090924703.818181818184687.045454545464670.272727272734653.54636.727272727274619.954545454544603.18181818182

MC Total Enrollment Portion of MC Enrollment Attributed to Cohort

Projected

Figure 17: Actual and projected enrollment of students, Mendocino College, Fall 2000 to Fall 2015. Source: CCCCO referential data files.

55

Student ResidencyOver the period from Fall 2000 through Spring 2011, the distribution of students who are in-district residents of Mendocino County and Lake County have been relatively stable, as shown in Figure 18.

Fall 2

000

Sprin

g 2001

Fall 2

001

Sprin

g 2002

Fall 2

002

Sprin

g 2003

Fall 2

003

Sprin

g 2004

Fall 2

004

Sprin

g 2005

Fall 2

005

Sprin

g 2006

Fall 2

006

Sprin

g 2007

Fall 2

007

Sprin

g 2008

Fall 2

008

Sprin

g 2009

Fall 2

009

Sprin

g 2010

Fall 2

010

Sprin

g 20110.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

Lake Mendocino

Figure 18: Distribution of students who are in-district residents of Mendocino County and Lake County. Fall 2000 through Spring 2011. Source: CCCCO Referential Data Files

In Fall 2000, 75.8% of in-district students were residents of Mendocino County and 24.2% were residents of Lake County. In Spring 2011, the distribution is virtually unchanged, with 75% of in-district students residing in Mendocino County and 25% residing in Lake County. It is likely that there will be some change in this distribution in the future as a consequence of:

Expansion of the Lake Center scheduled to begin in 2011 and to be completed in Spring 2013

Continued expansion and marketing on on-line education as an option to Lake County residents.

Where Students Take CoursesAlong with the main campus in Ukiah, Mendocino College has “centers” in Willits (about 30 minutes to the north of Ukiah) and in Lakeport (44 minutes drive east of Ukiah) in Lake County. Supplementing these three main locations, Mendocino College offers courses via distance education and at various times, four other locations around Mendocino and Lake Counties.

56

Given the relative proximity of one physical location to another, it is surprising that most students tend to take courses at one location, only, as shown in Table 11.

Ukiah Campus Willits Center Lake CenterEnrolled Students 3419   Enrolled Students 476   Enrolled Students 939  Ukiah only 2565 75.0% Willits Only 292 61.3% Lake Only 609 64.9%Ukiah and Lake 157 4.6% Willits and Ukiah 104 21.8% Lake and Ukiah 157 16.7%Ukiah and Willits 104 3.0% Willits and On-line 37 7.8% Lake and On-line 122 13.0%Ukiah and On-line 505 14.8% Willits and Other 43 9.0%      Ukiah and Other 88 2.6%            Table 11: Where students enroll in courses, Spring 2011. Source: Datatel Datamart

Of the 3,419 unduplicated students enrolled on the Ukiah campus, 75% of them took all their courses at Ukiah. The next largest percentage, 14.8% enrolled in an On-line course.

Among students enrolled at Willits (476) and Lake (939) in Spring 2011, there is much the same pattern. At Willits, 61.3% of students enrolled in Willits classes only and at Lake, 64.9% of students enrolled in Lake Center classes only. Unlike Ukiah, however, the On-line option is not as popular as taking courses at Ukiah. 21.8% of Willits Center students were enrolled at Willits and Ukiah and 16.7% of Lake Center students were enrolled at Lake and Ukiah. Only 7.8% of Willits Center students were also enrolled in an On-line course and 13% of Lake Center students were also enrolled in an On-line course.

Methods of DeliveryWhile traditional methods of course content delivery (Lecture, Lecture/Lab and Lab) will continue to dominate course delivery at Mendocino College, there is a growing percentage of enrollments in courses delivered through distance education, as shown in Figure 19. In Fall 2000, the overwhelming amount of enrollment, 93.2%, occurred in Lecture courses and Laboratory courses. Only 4.5% of enrollment was in Distance Education courses. By Fall 2008, and the widespread adoption of residential broadband and other internet services, Distance Education courses accounted for 9.9% of enrollments and Lecture and Laboratory courses for 89.7% of enrollments. If these trends continue, by Spring 2012, Lecture and Laboratory courses will account for 88.0% of enrollments and Distance Education courses for 12.0% of enrollment.4

4 The proportion of enrollment generated by “Other” forms of instruction, including Work Experience appears to disappear because the proportion is less than the amount of the standard error (the lower and upper bounds of the projection estimate) of the projections for Lecture/Lab and Distance Education.

57

Fal

l 200

0

Spr

200

1

Fal

l 200

1

Spr

200

2

Fal

l 200

2

Spr

200

3

Fal

l 200

3

Spr

200

4

Fal

l 200

4

Spr

200

5

Fal

l 200

5

Spr

200

6

Fal

l 200

6

Spr

200

7

Fal

l 200

7

Spr

200

8

Fal

l 200

8

Spr

200

9

Fal

l 200

9

Spr

201

0

Fal

l 201

0

Spr

201

1

Fal

l 201

1

Spr

201

250.0%55.0%

60.0%

65.0%70.0%

75.0%

80.0%85.0%

90.0%

95.0%100.0%

Lecture/Lab Distance Ed Other

Figure 19: Actual and projected proportional distribution of enrollments based upon method of delivery. Source: Mendocino College Student Information System

Student enrollment and mission: Transfer, Basic Skills and CTEOver the past several years, the Office of the Chancellor of the California Community Colleges has consistently focused upon the tripartite mission of the community college:

Transfer and General Education Basic Skills Career & Technical Education (CTE)

Over the past four Fall semesters, between 87% and 90% of all section offerings have been in courses that fall within these three areas. Each year, an additional 5.5% to 6.0% are sections of learning labs which principally act as a supplement to English and Mathematics courses. The remaining courses fall into the categories of non-transferrable Physical Education courses and courses numbered less than 100 and, therefore, “recreational” courses. In Figure 20, the distribution of course-sections in Fall 2008 and Fall 2011 are compared to illustrate how the “mix” has changed over the period.

58

10%

34%

44%

1% 5% 6%

Fall 2008

Basic SkillsCTETransferPhys Ed (Non-Transferrable)Learning LabsRecreational

14%

38%

38%

4% 6% 1%

Fall 2011

Basic SkillsCTETransferPhys Ed (Non-Transferrable)Learning LabsRecreational

Figure 20: Distribution of course-sections by mission-defined area, Fall 2008 and Fall 2011. Source: CCCCO Referential data files and Datatel Datamart.

Over the three year period, there has been a slightly greater emphasis on Basic Skills courses. In Fall 2008, sections of Basic Skills courses (Math, English, ESL) comprised 10% of all section offerings. In Fall 2011, that had grown to 14% of all course offerings. Similarly, course offerings in CTE have from 34% of section offerings in Fall 2008 to 38% in Fall 2011. This growth, however, has been at the expense of offerings in Transfer and General Education. The

59

proportion of courses offered in that mission-area has declined from 44% of all section offerings in Fall 2008 to 38% of all course offerings in Fall 2011.

Student Enrollment: Student SuccessFrom Fall 2005 through Fall 2010, student success5 has generally increased at Mendocino College. As shown in Figure 21. In the twelve semester period, student success has seen a net gain of 0.041, from 0.698 in Fall 2005 to 0.739 in Spring 2011. In fact, the last seven semesters has seen a gain of 0.063 from the lowest rate of student success in 0.676 in Fall 2007. This compares favorably to statewide student success rates. In Fall 2005, the statewide student success rate was 0.6677, slightly less than Mendocino College. In Spring 2011, statewide student success rate had increased to 0.6789, an increase of only 0.0122.

Fall 2005

Spring 2006

Fall 2006

Spring 2007

Fall 2007

Spring 2008

Fall 2008

Spring 2009

Fall 2009

Spring 2010

Fall 2010

Spring 2011

0.640

0.660

0.680

0.700

0.720

0.740

0.760

0.698

0.676

0.739

Figure 21: Student success Fall 2005 through Spring 2011, all enrolled students. Source: CCCCO Referential Data files.

However, student success is not equal among all students. There is a definite gap in the average success rate of minority students and the average success rate of White students as shown in Figure 22. Each semester, that gap varies between 0.0445 to as high as 0.1014. In each semester, that difference between the average success rates was found to be statistically significant, using a t-test of means. That indicates that the gap is a real phenomenon and not simply a coincidence.5 Success is defined as completing a course with a grade of A, B, C or Pass which enables a student to progress to the next course in sequence.

60

61

Fall 2005

Spring 2006

Fall 2006

Spring 2007

Fall 2007

Spring 2008

Fall 2008

Spring 2009

Fall 2009

Spring 2010

Fall 2010

Spring 2011

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

Underrepresented Minority White Success Rate Gap

Succ

ess R

ate

Succ

ess R

ate

Gap

Figure 22: Average success rates for Minority students, average success rates for White students and success rate gap (line). Fall 2005 through Spring 2011. Source: CCCCO Referential Data Files.

The largest growing minority group among Mendocino College students consists of Hispanic students. As shown in Table 12, the success rates for Hispanic students are generally lower than those for non-Hispanic students and, among Hispanic students, the success rates for male Hispanic students is generally less than female Hispanic students.

Semester

Female Hispanic Students

Female Non-Hispanic Students

Male Hispanic Students

Male Non-Hispanic Students

Fall 2005 0.7009 0.7224 0.5943 0.6719Spring 2006 0.7063 0.7363 0.6601 0.6990Fall 2006 0.6813 0.7181 0.6289 0.7210Spring 2007 0.6947 0.7243 0.6748 0.7145Fall 2007 0.6601 0.6927 0.6195 0.6622Spring 2008 0.6741 0.7075 0.6123 0.6974Fall 2008 0.6520 0.6910 0.6410 0.6870Spring 2009 0.6479 0.7159 0.6251 0.6839Fall 2009 0.6621 0.7156 0.5927 0.7042Spring 2010 0.6552 0.7314 0.5966 0.6769Fall 2010 0.6203 0.7105 0.6353 0.7173

62

Spring 2011 0.7182 0.7283 0.6533 0.6884Table 11: Average success rates Hispanic v. Non-Hispanic and Male v. Female. Fall 2005 through Spring 2011. Source: CCCCO Referential Data Files.

Over the past twelve semesters, Non-Hispanic Females (predominantly White) have enjoyed the highest average success rate, averaging a success rate of 0.7167. They are followed by Non-Hispanic Males (again, predominantly White) with an average semester success rate of 0.6936. Among Hispanic students, females are significantly higher than makes in terms of average success rate. Over the twelve semesters, Hispanic females average a student success rate of 0.6727 while Hispanic males average the lowest of all groups with an average semester success rate of 0.627. As late as Spring 2010, Hispanic males dipped below 0.600.

Facilities ExpansionAs projected by the Measure W Bond, Mendocino College will experience major facilities expansion over the next 4-7 years. While facilities should not drive curricular decisions, the addition of major facilities – permanent facilities in Lake County and Willits, possible construction of an Allied Health/Nursing facility on the Ukiah campus, construction of a new Library/Learning Resource Center --- will require decisions be made on how best to utilize the facilities as they come on line.

Developing a “Culture of Evidence”Unlike other trends discussed, this trend is not as quantifiable and reflects more of a qualitative change in the nature of “how we do business”. The term “culture of evidence” refers to the development of policies and practices that are based upon information and not tradition, personality or personal preference. According to Educause, the elements of a culture of evidence include:

Acquiring the right information Establishing the information’s validity Understanding what is significant Knowing what is actionable Rendering it in a compelling and useful format Getting it before the right decision-makers

At Mendocino College, indicators that a culture of evidence is developing include:

The development and measurement of institutional, program and course-level Student Learning Outcomes (SLOs).

The evolving Program Review process, which is integrating performance, planning and budget.

A growing use of information technology and information in decision-making The acquisition and implementation of the Datatel Colleague integrated information

system

63

The acquisition and implementation of the Datatel Colleague system is both an indicator of the growing culture of evidence at Mendocino College and also a spur to further growth. As the system gets fully implemented, “evidence” in the form of integrated information will play a greater role in decision-making and policy development.

SummaryThe purpose of this chapter is to provide a sense of the setting in which Mendocino College operates presently and will be operating in the future.

This chapter provides information regarding external and internal forces that affect Mendocino College. External forces include socioeconomic and demographic characteristics and projections for the region. Other forces, which will affect the College but cannot be projected, include State and Federal budgets and policies, the policies of accreditation and the policies of other public systems of higher education with which we interact.

Internally, student demographics and projected trends in student demographics will likely be a force we will need to address. Other internal forces include decisions regarding curriculum, course delivery and technology, facilities expansion and the development of a culture of evidence.

64

Chapter 4: Program Responsiveness, Growth and Improvement 

IntroductionMendocino College is committed to sustaining and improving existing programs while continuing to be flexible in meeting the needs of the community in which it is located. This chapter begins with a description of current program and course offerings, with an eye towards examining them in terms of sustenance and change. A discussion of growth follows, with two models of projecting growth presented. Finally, the chapter ends with a discussion of the need for continued growth in FTES. 

Planning for Program Sustenance and Change According to the Mendocino College Mission Statement,  

Mendocino College provides education to our students and our communities by offering academic programs, transfer preparation, career and technical training, lifelong learning opportunities and student support programs that are dedicated to the achievement of learning outcomes.

 The program offerings listed in the Mission Statement, with the addition of Basic Skills and English as a Second Language (ESL), can provide a useful framework for examining long-term planning for the College.  

Academic Programs The College offers a breadth of academic programs. Currently (2008-2010 Catalog), Mendocino College offers 40 Associate Degrees and 29 Certificates of Achievement. In Fall 2007, this translated to about 450 unique course offerings in 54 programmatic departments.[1] This includes departments (e.g. Chemistry) which do not offer a degree program but are an integral part of other degree programs (e.g. Nursing). While the breadth of Associate Degrees at the College can be viewed as a strength, most students earning an Associate Degree major in either General Studies, Liberal Arts or one of several Business degrees. For example, in 2006-2007, out of 317 degrees awarded, 81 were in General Studies and 71 were in Liberal Arts. 60 degrees were awarded in one of three Business areas: Administration, Management or Accounting. With the exception of Registered Nursing and Psychology, which awarded twenty three and twenty degrees respectively, all other programs awarded fewer than ten degrees. Many awarded none over the past several years. The lack of student interest in certain certificates and degrees should be considered seriously and may lead to discontinuance of some programs over the next several years.

65

 Recently (Fall 2008), in order to comply with Title V, along with most California Community Colleges, Mendocino College redesigned the General Studies and Liberal Arts degrees to include “areas of emphasis.” In the past, students have been able to design their own academic programs, but now will need to take at least 18 units from a listing of courses in a defined area of emphasis, approved by the Curriculum Committee. This change, unless dealt with proactively, has the potential to impact severely the number of degrees awarded, especially to students transferring to a four-year college or university since they are mostly using the path of the General Studies degrees. The College has already had several areas of emphasis approved locally and by the Chancellor’s Office (Education, Natural Science, Social Science, Humanities, Kinesiology and Health, Visual and Performing Arts). It is imperative that the viability of these degrees is closely monitored and new areas are developed to serve students and their academic needs. This includes close collaboration between Student Services and Instruction to insure the development of coursework relevant for transfer to four year colleges/universities. Through the Program Review process and Program Management Guidelines, the breadth of course offerings, certificates of achievement and degrees will be continually evaluated. Recent Accreditation reports have suggested that the College examine the number and breadth of degree offerings. This examination, in terms of student needs, programmatic goals, statewide trends and demands, and institutional directions will be directed by EAP in accordance with the Program Management Guidelines. These guidelines insure that when programs are added or eliminated, a review is conducted which takes as many academic, community, and institutional factors into consideration as possible.  

Transfer Preparation Transfer preparation will likely continue to be an integral part of Mendocino College. It is a central part of our mission and of the California Community College system. Transfer preparation tends to be an area of interest for younger students (18 – 26) who tend to enroll full-time rather than part-time. Current (2008-2009) Statewide budget issues may steer local students eligible for four year colleges and universities to complete their lower division general education major prerequisites at Mendocino College. Fortunately, Mendocino College provides a solid offering of the freshman and sophomore courses needed for transfer to a four year institution. As it currently does, the College will need to continue being flexible and responsive to student needs in scheduling ample sections of the courses while maintaining a fiscally responsible schedule. In serving students who choose to transfer, the College must also be continually updating curriculum and responding to the demands posed by articulation requirements of the four year institutions. In addition, serving transfer students optimally means being responsive to new articulation opportunities.

66

The Curriculum Committee provides important support for keeping the College’s transfer preparation viable. The Committee’s calendar, processes, and forms for approving and activating transfer level courses must reflect the demands of the Articulation process. In addition, a system for updating courses on a regular cycle is critical to keep our courses articulating. The Curriculum Committee is in the midst of this work updating its processes. Changes will coincide with the new information systems and software being adopted by the College. These processes will provide an infrastructure for planning and changes that occur in campus-wide course offerings. The needs associated with Transfer Preparation are less volatile than other areas –requirements for lower division general education and major prerequisites are fairly stable. However, State-wide processes and local demand do change. Also, other issues such as availability of part-time instructors can impact planning and decision-making in this area, making it difficult to offer multiple sections beyond the full-time faculty member load for the department.  

Basic Skills and English as a Second Language (ESL) While offerings in Basic Skills and English as a Second Language (ESL) are not specifically referenced in the College’s Mission Statement, these areas are described in the Mission Statement for the California Community College system, and they are imperative to the sustenance and development of all our other areas. Most of our students (80%) are not eligible for transfer courses in either math or English or both upon enrolling at the College and may be placed up to three levels below transfer level work for English (non-ESL) and up to five levels below in Math. With the Fall 2009 increase of level in English and Math of Associate Degree graduation requirements, the longtime need for increased attention on Basic Skills and ESL has begun to be addressed on the statewide as well as local levels with the Basic Skills Initiative. Locally, the College has formed a Foundation Skills Teaching and Learning Community to focus on this work. This “committee” has broad membership from full- and part-time faculty (including counselors), instructional administrators, and the Institutional Researcher. It is through the leadership of that group that planning, research and development will occur. District demographic data indicate that Latinos are the fastest growing ethnic group. This includes adult immigrants, who will benefit from ESL, but also the children who immigrated with those adults as young children or teens, who are sometimes referred to as “Generation 1.5.” This distinction has been especially useful for educators as they strive to provide the most relevant curriculum and support for individuals caught in between generations. They do not have the same needs as their parents – first generation immigrants— or children born of immigrants in this country—second generation. Generation 1.5 students might not benefit from

67

a traditional ESL program because they have “come of age” speaking English and attending school in English. However, they also may have different needs from those students enrolled in “mainstream” English and other courses since their education in English occurred later in their lives than in their peers’. The College will need to continue to research community demographics with increased attention on Generation 1.5 and implement educational programs which work to recruit, retain, and promote the success of these students while also reaching out to the language learning community in general. Basic Skills and ESL provide the foundation for the success of all other courses and departments. Most students rely on at least some preparation in pre-collegiate work to move on to degree-level courses. It is imperative that the College consider this area a critical area of development, not only to serve the increasing language learning community described above, but also to be vigilant in our efforts to strive for equity. Providing access to degree and transfer programs for all students entails making a strong basic skills program. For example, forty percent of Mendocino College students are served by EOPS. These low income and first generation college students are most likely to place into Basic Skills courses and benefit from curriculum and programs geared toward them. 

Career and Technical Education In addition to transfer, basic skills and ESL courses, the College continues to offer Career and Technical Education (CTE) as part of its mission. CTE represents the arm of the college for students seeking direct employment after obtaining a certificate or associate degree. There is a considerable and growing need for such “middle” skilled personnel within the developing service and information global economy. Currently, the College offers a wide-range of CTE programs and courses to meet the varying needs of employers/employees. Programs and courses in areas such as Agriculture, Business, Business Office Technology, Accounting, Computer Science, Automotive Technology, Public Safety, Culinary Arts, and Nursing have long been the mainstay of CTE at Mendocino College. Instructors in these programs continually strive to update and improve their outcomes by analyzing the Core Indicator Data provided by the Chancellor’s Office and by actively engaging with community members through Advisory Committee meetings. Development of effective career pathways depends on collaboration with the K-12 system, agencies, and employers. The College has recently begun to strengthen these relationships through participation in the Statewide Career Pathways project. Working together and with industry input, secondary and post secondary faculty create a sequenced pathway of courses for their disciplines, creating articulation agreements where course content overlaps. This information is then uploaded into a database, which is easily accessed by counselors, instructors, parents, and students. Joint pathways work, further development of articulation agreements, enhances career counseling, and the development of related marketing materials is anticipated to continue.

68

The College is a primary resource for the community in terms of postsecondary career and technical training that produces a labor pool of qualified employees. As such, existing and emerging labor market needs must be continually monitored, particularly in terms of areas of high skill, high wage or high demand occupations. Resources allocated for new program development must be carefully weighed against the strengths and needs of existing programs. Recent local, regional, and national data indicates areas to strongly consider expanding fall within Allied Health and Green Careers areas. As CTE offerings are expanded and new programs are developed, it is critical that the College also continuously assess its own CTE program effectiveness in terms of meeting student and employer expectations. 

Lifelong Learning Mendocino College enjoys a strong constituency of students engaged in Lifelong Learning. It is suggested in Chapter 3 that about 20% of students at Mendocino College are Lifelong Learners. They are the most educated of our students (over half report a prior AA or BA/BS degree); they are older; and they tend to be part-time students. Demographically, it is likely that the pool of Lifelong Learners, especially in Mendocino County, will expand through 2018, as the projections show increasing numbers of people moving into the 55 and above age groups. Our current strength with this group is in the creative and performing arts. As a group, Lifelong Learners have some unique characteristics:

Education is a “lifestyle choice” rather than training or retraining. It can be viewed as an entertainment expense as much as an educational expense. Convenience, variety of offerings, ongoing access (i.e., repeatability) and cost may be important criteria for members of this group in terms of personal budgeting of finances.

The interests of this group may change over time and reflect changes and trends in society and culture as a whole.

As this group ages, their educational needs are likely to change.  As this demographic group expands, the College will need to focus resources upon the planning, scheduling and marketing of credit and non-credit courses for this group. Since this portion of the population is likely to attend college classes for multiple years (well beyond the 2-3 year pattern for the students whose goal is transfer), the College should also plan to provide new learning opportunities to assure ongoing access to popular topics beyond the current repeatability limits of existing curriculum. Other potential areas of growth might be non-credit, short-term leisure and lifestyle courses geared to the financial and lifestyle needs of this group (e.g. estate planning, financial planning). Given recent state budget developments, many of these offerings may be converted to community extension workshops. 

69

Student Support Programs Student Support programs provide the principal extracurricular connection between the student and the College. The particular focus of these programs is student persistence. The research of Vincent Tinto and numerous other researchers over the past 40 years has shown the importance of co-curricular and extracurricular programs and services for engaging students and decreasing attrition. As Shown in Table 1, Fall-to-Spring persistence is particularly low for First-time students and First-time Transfer students.  

SemesterFirst-Time

StudentFirst-Time

Transfer StudentReturning

StudentContinuing

StudentFall 2000 51.2% 40.3% 41.1% 71.2%Fall 2001 57.4% 37.6% 42.4% 71.8%Fall 2002 58.8% 39.2% 45.6% 73.6%Fall 2003 53.4% 43.8% 45.3% 70.9%Fall 2004 58.5% 45.4% 42.8% 71.2%Fall 2005 58.1% 46.1% 42.1% 71.5%Fall 2006 58.3% 36.0% 39.8% 74.7%Table 1:  Fall to Spring persistence by Fall enrollment status. Fall 2000 through Fall 2006 A very direct contribution that Student Support programs and student services can make is increasing the Fall-to-Spring persistence of Mendocino College students. Over the past three years, the average Fall-to-Spring persistence of First-time Students has been approximately 58%. Conversely, Continuing students have averaged 70% persistence or higher. First-time students are particularly important because many of them are Full-time students in the 18-26 age group. With an attrition rate of 40%, that means that a large proportions of new enrollments each Spring semester are refilling empty seats rather than filling new seats in classes. Research on Mendocino College students estimates that each percentage point in Fall-to-Spring persistence among First-time students is the equivalent of between 1.7 and 2.1 additional FTES in the spring (average of 1.951 over 7 years). Since we know that most of our students enroll in Basic Skills courses during their first semester at the College, some of the work connected to persistence will be in that area. For example, the Foundation Skills Teaching and Learning Community referenced earlier are working on developing Learning Communities, new Guidance courses, and new Academic Excellence workshops. In addition, tutoring and other Learning Center activities will need to be examined and potentially enhanced to increase persistence. Also, support activities which include collaboration between counseling and teaching faculty are and will be valuable in this area. As in all areas of planning, it is important to take the specific needs and characteristics of diverse students into consideration in the development of support programs. An examination

70

of which students are and are not persisting will be important in deciding how to support them in staying. 

Characteristics of Growth The discussion above on persistence is part of a larger conversation on Growth. Growth at Mendocino College can occur in many ways. It can be due to an increase in the overall number of student attending, it may be due to the addition of sections of existing courses or it may be due to the addition of new sections of new courses. A discussion of growth also should take into account factors from our external environment, including population, economy and jobs provide both limits and opportunities for growth. For example, the size of the population within the District is fairly stable and is characterized by low projected growth rates. Assuming these trends continue, it would be fairly unrealistic to set a target for growth which would not be sustainable based upon population with these characteristics. Over the period 2002 – 2006, the unduplicated annual headcount of Mendocino College students represented about 5% of the population of Mendocino and Lake Counties, combined. Fall enrollment over the same period steadily represented 4% of the combined population of both counties 18 years of age and older. It would be unrealistic, for example, to expect that Mendocino College would be able to consistently increase student enrollment by a double digit percentage over the next 5 – 10 years. On the opportunity side, increasing tuition and fees at CSU and UC campuses make Mendocino College a more affordable alternative. In general terms, growth is characterized by the following: Achievable 

Achievable growth is growth that can reasonably be met given current resources. It is unlikely that increased resources will be provided by the State in order to foster growth; rather, resources flow from growth using existing resources.

 Sustainable 

Growth must be at a level which can be sustained over an extended period of time. Sustainable growth provides a solid footing for further planning. One-time growth can be achieved through concerted, highly focused efforts. However, sustaining that level of growth for an extended period overtaxes people and resources. Ultimately, that growth surge is lost.

 

71

Non-linear 

Growth in FTES is not a straight line process, even though a straight line projection (e.g. x% per year) is often used as a heuristic device for planning purposes. Instead, growth in enrollments and FTES will fluctuate from year to year as student interest in programs changes.

 

Projecting growth In Figure 1, student enrollments for Fall semester are projected out to the 2017-18 academic year using three different models. Each model is an alternative scenario based upon prior experience. Statistical models are based upon a set of assumptions that reflect a projection of past behavior into the future. They suggest outcomes of what is likely to happen if a certain set of assumptions remain true. The first model, the “forecast model” based upon the following set of assumptions:

Our enrolled student population will represent a constant 5% of the adult population of Mendocino and Lake Counties, combined.

The population projections from the California Department of Finance are sound and likely to hold true for the period through 2018. In other words, there will not be a significant amount of immigration into or emigration from the region which is not accounted for by their model.

The population growth for the two counties is distributed rather uniformly in each county and not clustered in areas which fall outside district boundaries in the two counties.

This model is developed using a forecast (regression) model. It is based upon the relationship of our enrolled student population (number of students enrolled in one or more courses) to the populations of Mendocino and Lake Counties. It assumes there is no change from past conditions. The second model, the “Average” model, projects enrollment growth for Fall semesters through 2018 using our average growth rate. This rate was calculated by averaging the historical change (growth or decline) in enrollments from one Fall semester to another over the period Fall 2000 through Fall 2007. Projected years are incremented annually with this constant. The assumption is that, over time, we can maintain some level of growth which will be normally distributed. The third model, “1.5% growth” uses a constant multiplier of 1.5% growth from one Fall semester to the next Fall semester. This is a more aggressive model and presumes that Mendocino College can, over time, maintain a growth rate in enrollment equal to 1.5% of the previous Fall enrollment.

72

 

Figure 1: Fall enrollment, actual and projected, Fall 2000 – Fall 2018 using three different models. From the projection of our enrolled student population, the models then estimate the number of Full Time Equivalent Students (FTES) generated by that enrollment. As shown in Figure 2, our FTES/Enrolled student ratio for Fall and Spring semesters moves within a fairly narrow band. For Fall semesters, the average FTES/Student ranges from 0.251 in Fall 2001 to a high of 0.286 in Fall 2005. Given the relative stability of the range, a forecast model was used to project the FTES/Student rate for the period from Fall 2008 to Fall 2018. While not included in Table 1, the model projected a slow but steady growth in this proportion, from 0.281 in Fall 2007 to 0.3327 in Fall 2018.

73

Figure 2: Average FTES per Enrolled Student, Fall and Spring semesters. Based upon the projected FTES/enrolled student ratio, FTES for Fall semester can be projected for each of the three models shown in Figure 1. The estimated growth in FTES for Fall semester for each of the three models is illustrated in Figure 3. 

Figure 3: Projected Fall semester FTES through Fall 2018 for each enrollment model. 

74

The three FTES projections vary from 1666.15 for the “Average” model to 1910.84 for the “1.5% growth” model. This is a considerable difference of about 350 FTES. The “Forecast” model is roughly in the middle of the range with a projection of 1814 FTES in Fall 2018. Each of these models is based upon the assumption that growth in enrolled student numbers will directly yield a particular FTES. However, based upon enrollment patterns, the actual number of FTES is sensitive to:

Age of the student: younger students tend to enroll in more classes and, therefore, yield more FTES per students than older students, the “lifelong learners;”

The mix of full-time and part-time students. Goals of enrolled students: students who are degree-seeking or transfer-directed tend

to enroll in more courses (more full-time students) than students who are here to improve current skills, explore opportunities, enhance basic skills or are lifelong learners.

The programs offered by the College. 

Methods for Increasing FTES The generation of FTES constitutes the principal funding mechanism for the College. Each FTES translates to approximately $4600 in General Fund revenues from the State of California. This funding supports on-going operating expenses as well as resources for program expansion and new program growth which reflects the needs of the community. (Categorical funding, which may support program expansion or new program growth, may be more reflective of state needs or trends.) FTES can be increased in a number of ways, including the following: (1) Increasing the number of students

The models projected in Figure 1 are based upon the fundamental premise that the number of students served by Mendocino College can be increased over the next ten years. On a year-to-year basis, the models project quite different growth rates, anywhere from 4.2 students per Fall semester to a high of 77.7 students per Fall semester. The actual growth in students will likely fall somewhere between these parameters based upon programmatic decisions that the College may make.

(2) Increasing the average FTES per student

If it is not feasible to increase the number of students at a rate projected by the forecast model, a second alternative would be to focus efforts on increasing the average FTES per student. As shown in Figure 3, the average FTES per student (using Fall 2006 as an example) varies considerably within each of the previously identified clusters of students.

75

Students who fall into the “Transfer” cluster have the highest average FTES per student, 0.504. These are predominantly Full-time or nearly Full-time students. This population is projected to decline, according to California Department of Finance projections. The cluster with the lowest FTES per student average is the “Lifelong Learners”, with an average of 0.127 FTES per student. 

Summary This chapter provides a general overview of programs and courses at the College as well as a discussion of both the need to sustain and improve what is currently offered or discontinued as well as to explore new offerings in response to community needs. This chapter reflects the academic strengths of the College, projected changes in the economy and forecast demographic trends. Transfer preparation will remain a mainstay of the College, but because of shifting demographics, it will likely become more integrated with both Basic Skills and CTE courses. Planning for new academic programs in CTE reflect defined community needs and the potential for contributing to growth in enrollment and FTES. Lifelong learning may expand its offerings and become more flexible in its delivery and programming.

[1] Based upon Fall 2007 enrollment, CCCCO referential data files. Note that courses in ART are broken out to reflect the three distinct degrees offered. Similarly, Theatre courses are broken out to reflect the Theatre and Theatre/Dance options. Finally, College Work Experience courses are grouped within a single programmatic department.

76

Chapter 5: Pedagogy, Course Delivery and Professional Development  

Introduction Mendocino College has continually recognized that one of our chief resources is our faculty. Evaluations conducted over the past five to ten years consistently reveal that students and community members are pleased with the quality of instruction and counseling available at Mendocino College.

Building on our success in traditional classroom and laboratory settings, the College has been growing its distance education program to offer many more sections of courses online. A recently (2007) hired Distance Education Director has been key in leading that effort. Overall, the College as a whole works diligently to teach students effectively through relevant pedagogy and course delivery modes to reach our student population in the classroom and across the vast geography of our District.

In contrast to the excellence achieved in our classrooms (real and virtual), recent evaluations, including the Basic Skills Initiative Self-Study, have indicated that our College lacks a cohesive professional development program for faculty. Also, while there is collaboration within departments, there is little official collaboration or professional development opportunities across departments and disciplines among faculty in sharing best teaching practices and “packaging” courses for innovative delivery models, including the creation of learning communities in which cohorts of students register for a group of linked courses. There are also ongoing professional development needs for faculty who teach online or work in distance education, particularly with the use of new technologies. Finally, CTE faculty who come to work for us from industry need on-going professional development in terms of pedagogy as well as maintaining currency in their fields.

As our student population and the world they live in continues to change, our faculty need to be supported in providing relevant curriculum, effective pedagogy, and engaging in innovative collaboration.

This chapter will describe current practices and developments in pedagogy, course delivery, and professional development. In addition, it will explore how Mendocino College can build on its success as a teaching institution to respond to current trends and needs in these areas.

 

77

Pedagogy Current Practices

Mendocino College lists as its first Strategic Goal to “become a learner-centered institution by focusing on student success (Mission, Vision, Values, Goals document).” Currently, the College’s faculty employs a variety of pedagogical practices to create learner-centered environments. Classrooms include cooperative learning, project based learning, laboratory practice, hands-on training (especially in CTE areas), in addition to the traditional lecture, which is still a valuable way to expose students to course material, and is complementary to these other teaching practices.

These current practices not only promote learner-centered classrooms but also develop students as effective communicators and collaborators. Educators in general, and community colleges in particular, are charged with not only imparting academic skills, but also preparing students for the workplace. Public and Private sector workplaces have clearly stated over the years that communication and collaboration are the most valuable employment skills.

The College has long-recognized the value of promoting and improving interpersonal student communication in its support for relatively small class sizes (low student-to faculty ratio). This is key to enabling learner centered practices to flourish.

In addition to employing effective, overarching methodologies for teaching, Mendocino College, as a small college with relatively small class sizes, is able to deliver instruction which keeps the individual student in mind. Teachers know their students, and as one of only a few teachers in their discipline, are likely to see students in more than one of their classes.

Furthermore, our small community lends to the plausibility that faculty will have taught multiple members of the same family. The close knit nature of our college community is an integral yet difficult to define aspect of our pedagogy. It is clear that best teaching practices include using knowledge of our students to help engage them in learning, and to help us respond appropriately to their individual needs. A small college lends itself well to employing this responsive pedagogy. However, as will be explored later in this chapter, there are ways our College can continue to be more responsive.

Emerging and Future Trends

Clearly, Mendocino College should continue to encourage and support learner-centered teaching practices at the College. There are some key ways these practices are being rethought and ways we can continue to be more responsive to our students. Mendocino College can

78

engage more deliberately in what we already do well – that is, to know our students, individually and collectively, and respond to their learning needs effectively and empathetically while maintaining academic standards.

Incorporating instruction which is responsive to different learning styles, including learning disabilities, is critical to student success. In general, the College has been effective in employing a variety of learning modes to respond to these needs. Also, there has been a fair amount of collaboration between the Learning Center, Disability Services (DSPS), and faculty.

The current Foundation Skills Teaching and Learning Community is working to further develop that collaboration. With the current emphasis on increasing the successful matriculation of students from Basic Skills to College and Transfer-level classes, this support structure will need to expand in new ways, including Supplemented Instruction (tutors assigned to specific sections), academic workshops targeting specific skills, and Learning Communities with faculty and counselor collaboration. Future college plans should include pedagogy which integrates supportive learning activities with classroom instruction.

As the demographic shift described in earlier chapters has occurred in the District, faculty have been engaged in exploring practices which best reach the English language learning population. While this is a current concern among faculty, it will need to be explored with greater intensity over the first part of the next decade, including pedagogy most effective for students described earlier as Generation 1.5.

In addition, it has been discussed in earlier chapters that students in the District are poorer than most of the State and 40% of students are enrolled in EOPS. These are demographic features which impact students and their learning. Mendocino College faculty, in general, as empathetic individuals, already effectively support and guide apprehensive students as they embark on a college education, sometimes as the first in their family. However, much of this is done instinctively, without explicit attention to classroom practices that best reach these demographics.

Culturally responsive pedagogy must also reach the region’s Native American population. Course content and pedagogy relevant to this population is not only important for the success of Native Americans (recruitment and retention), but also to ensure an awareness in the general college community of the Native experience. Native American advisory committees are long standing at the College. Future plans should include more collaboration with faculty to ensure integration of the Native American experience into curriculum and pedagogy.

79

Employing pedagogy which is responsive to students’ individual and collective identities is a complex and dynamic process. There are no “magic methods” which will reach all of our students all of the time, and we should resist pedagogical approaches which make such promises. Later in the Professional Development section of this chapter, potential approaches for engaging faculty and staff in activities which promote responsive pedagogy will be explored.

Technological and Architectural Support

Often, the current discussion of technology in education is concerned primarily with online instruction—delivering courses through the Internet. While online instruction is a key direction for Mendocino College and will be discussed in the “Course Delivery” section of this chapter, using technology in classroom instruction and as support for teaching and learning is an area the College is committed to with current activities and future plans. Additionally, the passage of the bond Measure W has allowed the College to design new facilities which support a learner-centered campus as well as reach students with the latest technology.

With the passage of Measure W, the campus has been able to upgrade classrooms to have “smart classroom” technology, making the Internet and other resources available in each classroom on the main campus. Future upgrades will occur at the Centers to continue this process of bringing the latest technology to assist in providing the best support for student learning. A video server has been purchased and it is awaiting better bandwidth in order to become fully functional for the campus and centers.

A more recent technology, podcasting, is available on the campus but it is primarily used for special events such as readings, sporting events, etc. The implementation of Datatel (the new information system) will allow for faculty to interact with students electronically as rosters and contacts will automatically be created through the enrollment process. These changes should allow for the integration of technology into current instructional practices.

In support of classroom teaching, the College already provides access to many computer applications for students in the current Learning Center and Library. The Library has already embraced more eBook technology with 34,000 eBooks in the collection to support teachers and students. Additionally, the Library subscribes to millions of electronic articles through its research database subscriptions. It should be noted that these electronic collections now surpass the physical collections in the libraries.

New directions in technology and learning spaces will be part of the future of Mendocino College which will enhance person to person learning, communication, and effective interaction among small groups of people. Plans are being finalized for a new Library/Learning Center that

80

will focus on more spaces for students to study in pairs or small groups and well as provide space for individual learners.

The Learning Center will include space for Math Tutoring and Math Labs, a Language Lab, MESA Center and Tutorial Center. The new Library will include ten group study rooms so that small groups of students may work together without interrupting individuals wanting quiet study. Both spaces of this new facility will have plenty of computer access with the latest applications to support student learning for different subject areas.

Clearly, the upgrades of technology which will occur over the next decade will support online education in new ways; however, the design is also to emphasize the value of effective in-person communication and cooperative learning, enhanced but not replaced by computer-based instruction. The additions and improvements made to the College should be integrated with the classroom teaching strategies and communications between teachers and students.

The trends for the future appear to include technologies such as making dot mobile interfaces so that students who increasingly rely on cell phones and personal digital assistants (PDAs) have the ability to connect with the College. These devices will send text messages, download video clips, carry eBook software, and even handle streaming video. To further emphasize how this mobile revolution is taking place, it was estimated by Reuters that 3.3 million people world-wide had a mobile device by the end of 2007 (Griffey). With the ability to carry as much as 160 gigabytes in their pockets, students will now be able to access information, store information, and create information from a device that was not even available a decade ago.

A continuing challenge for Mendocino College will be to respond appropriately to changes in technology in a way that helps students and teachers engage in effective teaching and learning. An inherent conflict in embracing and integrating technology into everyday classroom practices is that at the same time we improve access to learning for some students, other students’ access may be hindered. A student’s ability to use technology effectively is a Basic Skills issue (user skills) as well as an economic issue (exposure and ownership of equipment). Concerns of access will need to be considered throughout our adoption and integration of new technology.

Course Delivery Currently, Mendocino College employs a variety of ways that course content is delivered to students. Besides a traditional classroom or lab setting, students are able to take classes over the Internet through class management software (Etudes), through video courses, and via travel courses.

81

While online courses as well as video and travel courses offer flexibility, often they will still require some space for students to have access to campus facilities. Some students will need access to computer workstations, others will need to have access to video materials, and even travel courses often require meeting space for orientations or other travel planning.

As the College continues to reach out to its campus centers in Willits and Lakeport, it will need to plan for how student support for these types of courses will be provided in future facilities at both sites along with other off-site locations. The Learning Center and Library support these various modes of teaching delivery, but in their future planning, they will need to incorporate the latest in best practices to better serve student learning.

Online offerings of existing courses have been growing in number over the past several years enhanced by the hiring of a Distance Education Coordinator in the 2007/08 academic year. This has increased access for students to courses, especially in the outlying areas of the District.

A major advantage of online courses is the ability to establish learning communities across geographic boundaries. Effective online courses harness the power of technology with instructional design and adult learning needs. For some students, the learning environment of an online course can pace learners through instructional content (Swan 2004) and the use of hyperlinks provides the opportunity for learners to expand and connect knowledge. Asynchronous communication via discussion boards allows all students the chance to speak up and thoughtfully engage with both the material and other learners.

Recent research indicates that online discussion/learning may be more supportive of experimentation, divergent thinking, exploration of multiple perspectives, complex understanding, and reflection than face-to-face discussion (Swan 2004). Another component of online learning communities is the opportunities available for collaborative learning activities and projects. Using the social networking tools of Web 2.0, engaging and effective group assignments will expand learning opportunities.

A major part of past distance learning delivery, video courses, has gradually decreased in use at Mendocino College. There are many reasons for this, including increased cost of materials, the switch from videotape to DVD as well as concerns regarding regular weekly contact between instructor and student. As distance education expands, video courses may eventually be phased out in favor of online or hybrid formats consisting of a mixture of “on-the-ground” and online interactions.

Students at the Willits and Lake Centers will also be able to gain new access to courses not offered at the Centers through a Distance Education classroom which will be part of the new Library/Learning Center. This classroom will give the campus the ability to connect the Ukiah

82

campus to the Centers, making classes that would not be available at the centers linked through audio/video connectivity.

Distance Education will continue to be an important course delivery mode at Mendocino College. As courses are modified to include distance education as a method of instruction, the College will need to monitor the quality of instruction, success rates of students, and learning outcomes to ensure our reputation for excellence in instruction is maintained in cyberspace and beyond.

Learning Communities

While course offerings online are continuing to grow in number, Mendocino College will also need to continue to explore new ways to package courses for students attending class on-campus, including the centers. One direction the College has been working on is to group students into Learning Communities – a cohort of students taking two or more linked courses.

Research in community college education indicates that this is an effective strategy for increasing student success and persistence, especially when augmented with other learning support, such as tutoring and counseling/advising. The Foundation Skills Teaching and Learning Community is working on beginning such a Learning Community in the fall of 2010 at the Basic Skills level. However, the hope is that this will be a pilot project and will lead to other Learning Communities across disciplines and across levels.

Learning Communities require collaboration and cooperation across many facets of the campus, including multiple faculty, counselors, as well as admissions and records. This will be a valuable direction for the future as it enhances the small school qualities we already have and further connects students to each other, to faculty and to their counselors. Learning Communities will continue to enhance the learner-centered focus of the College.

Interdisciplinary Offerings

Another recent trend at the college has been to “cross-list” courses. This is an innovative course delivery method which allows courses to be accessed by students and taught by faculty in a combination of disciplines. For example, we have courses cross listed in Psychology and Child Development, Child Development and Health, and Sociology and History. This mode of delivery not only allows for students to find the course listed in a variety of disciplines, but also acknowledges the interdisciplinary nature of subject matter.

83

Professional Development Mendocino College offers a variety of ways for faculty, staff and administration to participate in professional development. A primary way is through district-wide in-service activities at the beginning of each semester. These activities are extended to part-time faculty and opportunities are provided at both the Lake and Willits Centers and the Ukiah campus in the evening. Additionally, full-time faculty perform forty-two hours of flex activity of professional development each academic year that is approved by a subcommittee of the Academic Senate and the deans.

Another way that faculty participate directly in professional development opportunities on the Mendocino College campus is through work in such areas as the Basic Skills Initiative, CTE: Tech Prep – Articulation workshops, and through faculty workshops sponsored/presented through Academic Senate. Beginning in Spring 2007, a group of core faculty began working on developing a plan for Basic Skills and spent three days between academic sessions to complete a review of the Basic Skills Initiative Self Study. The results of this Self Study indicated that there existed a lack of on campus professional development.

This led to further planning throughout the 2007/08 academic year and to the hiring of a Basic Skills Coordinator and an ESL instructor to coordinate ESL activities. With these positions in place, the College has hosted in-service activities called Teacher Institutes and hosted mini-conferences with more planned in the upcoming years.

As the College considers providing professional development opportunities, it will need to keep in mind the Education Master Plan and provide opportunities for faculty and staff to collaborate and share best practices around the themes relevant to our plan, such as becoming a learner centered institution, developing learning communities, and increasing knowledge of our student population and ways to meet their needs. While it is important to continue to support faculty in their individual pursuits, an on campus professional development program needs to be developed as a cohesive effort in carrying out our Education Plan.

_____________________________________________________________________________

Coombs, Karen. “The Mobile iRevolution.” Netconnect Fall 2008: 28. Griffey, Jason. “Stranger Than We Know.” Netconnect Fall 2008: 10. Swan, Karen. 2004. “Relationships Between Interactions and Learning In Online Environments.” The Sloan Consortium. (http://www.sloan-c.org/publications/books/interactions.pdf).

84

Chapter 6 – A Shared Vision for Mendocino College 

The Educational Master Plan (EMP) is a living document, providing a foundation for the college’s overall planning process. The EMP is updated regularly to reflect changes in the external and internal environment; the needs of the community and our students; and the changing nature of higher education. Developed and applied as the basis for the Facilities Master Plan and Technology Master Plan, the EMP is a key document in the College’s planning efforts. 

Relationship between Educational Master Plan, Facilities Master Plan, Technology Master Plan and Strategic Plan.

  The Mendocino-Lake Community College District spans portions of California’s Mendocino and Lake Counties and serves a diverse and demographically changing population. The EMP addresses the need for expanding the student population and other revenue sources at Mendocino College over the next decade. Because of external forces, such as uneven or shrinking state support, increased energy costs and other natural increases in costs, the College will need to have a larger student population to maintain or expand programs and services.

Emphasis on the use of technology and improved pedagogy may help the College balance the need for growth with its tradition of personalized instruction. As Mendocino College continues

STRATEGIC PLANMISSION VISION VALUES GOALS

Educational

Master Plan

TECHNOLOGY PLAN

FACILITIES PLAN

ACTION PLAN

85

to plan, the challenge is to maintain and build upon traditional strengths while meeting the challenges of the future. 

CHARACTERISTICS AND ASSUMPTIONS For the purposes of planning the next decade of activity at Mendocino College, the EMP assumes that the following characteristics and planning assumptions will continue to influence college programs, services and future planning. From 2010-18, it is assumed that Mendocino College will:

Continue the College’s role as the primary local institution of public higher education within the Mendocino-Lake Community College District meeting the mission and operational requirements of the California Community College System as supported by the State of California;

Maintain a small college setting where excellent faculty, relatively small classes and

personalized support services can allow individual students from small regional communities to participate actively in the educational process and flourish in ways not possible at a larger college;

Foster student-centered learning environments and maintain quality instruction

by supporting faculty in being innovative and passionate about teaching and learning;

Develop new avenues of student and institutional financial support in cooperation with Financial Aid and the Mendocino College Foundation as well as the pursuit of grant opportunities;

Complete plans and projects funded by the 2006 Measure W Bond;

In conjunction with the fundamental characteristics of the college listed above, research for the Educational Master Plan suggests several key planning assumptions::

On average, our students have more financial need than those in many areas in the rest of the state, and the college needs to invest in initiatives to assist them.

The college needs to preserve -- and expand when possible -- breadth of choice, even if

we choose to discontinue some classes and programs.

As the only local institution of higher education, we have an obligation to respond to community demands for job training and upgrading of career skills.

86

Lake County demographics suggest an opportunity to increase the high school capture rate in the eastern portion of the college district.

New alliances with secondary schools throughout the district will help increase

enrollments in both Transfer and Career and Technical programs.

Since approximately twenty percent of our FTES is generated by enrollments by lifelong learners, the college needs to preserve lifelong learning opportunities pending state funding parameters.

Improved and innovative programs should expand comprehensive opportunities to

support the retention and persistence of all students. The EMP recognizes the inter-dependence of college programs and disciplines. Many degrees and certificates, for example, require a comprehensive course of study in several disciplines; virtually all require competence in basic skills; others rely on course content from one or more academic or career and technical disciplines that can be applied to courses of study in others. Supporting this segment of the plan, the Main Campus in Ukiah, Off-Campus Centers in Lake and northern Mendocino Counties, Point Arena Field Station and other instructional locations rented or leased by the college can be characterized by the clusters of learning activity taking place in such facilities. 2009 Baseline: The Main Campus in Ukiah offers a home for comprehensive academic and student support services. Off-campus centers in private leased facilities in Lakeport and Willits provide access to college programs and services to meet local needs in the outlying areas of the college district. Current Ukiah facilities on the main campus include MacMillan Hall; Lowery Library; Vocational Technical Building and Ceramics facilities; Center for the Visual and Performing Arts; Science Building; Court Center complex, Physical Education buildings, fields, tennis courts; Agricultural area; Grove barbeque area; Maintenance complex in a variety of support structures including the historic Yokayo Ranch barn; delivery and parking facilities.

The current off-campus centers are housed in leased office buildings in the cities of Lakeport and Willits. The Point Arena Field Station, on the Mendocino Coast near the city of Point Arena outside the college district, consists of basic scientific lab facilities in a former Coast Guard Loran Station and a magnificent coastal natural cliff and tidepool environment for scientific field study. Additional classroom facilities are rented or leased in various district locations as needed each semester.

87

Student-centered learning facilities projected to be developed at Mendocino College from 2010-18: MAIN CAMPUS, UKIAH:

2010: The existing agricultural and new solar field areas at the campus entrance along Hensley Creek Road adjacent to the site of the new "east campus village" and existing Grove offer facilities for teaching, learning, and social events emphasizing sustainability, green technology, and other current community topics. These spaces offer an opportunity for more casual yet socially meaningful campus-life activities to occur.

2010-2011: The new Ukiah campus "east campus village” classrooms, offices, parking lot and accompanying exterior public spaces will provide a cohesive setting for collaboration among career and technical education programs housed there. It will initially provide locations for programs in transition from one facility to another (the student union, cafeteria and bookstore) during the building phase of the Student Services Building. The area will also support opportunities for emerging programs with basic facilities while they are in their development phase.

2011: The new Maintenance Warehouse will provide a permanent home for all college maintenance and facility management operations and free other spaces for new uses.

2012: The new Library and Learning Resource Center (LLRC) will offer comprehensive student-centered learning resources and support services as well as home-away-from-home study areas for students, especially those who may not have access to adequate study environments elsewhere. Expanded library collections, Learning Resource Center services and resources, a Disability Resource Center, new distance education facilities, classrooms, meeting areas, and faculty offices will also support student learning in new ways. The LLRC is the heart of the academic environment within the higher education community, providing the necessary resources and support to foster student learning.

2015: New Student Center and Plaza “Heart of the Ukiah Campus” support student and

staff interaction and activities outside the classroom. Campus life requires that a student feels that there is a place that enhances their sense of belonging. A new student center, food service and bookstore facilities, and both indoor and outdoor public meeting spaces associated with the new student center and plaza between the student center and library will enhance campus life.

Dates to be determined: Other new concepts for new educational facilities or the

re-use of existing facilities in Ukiah include the potential for an event center in a remodeled and restored Yokayo Ranch barn; Foundation office; reconfigured Grove for campus use and public fundraising events.

88

NORTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTY

2009-12: Acquisition of real estate and architectural plan development for new center in the City of Willits.

2014-15: A new college-owned Willits Center will offer first access to the California Community College System in northern Mendocino County, providing community-based education meeting ongoing and emerging needs in Mendocino’s inland north county region. The North County program is unique in that multiple communities in Willits, Round Valley and Laytonville must be served through innovative and responsive program development and management. Utilization of emerging technologies to enhance learning in remote areas may allow educational programs to be accessible to all district residents. Specific programs developed in northern Mendocino will be responsive to community needs that emerge from demographic analysis and active community input through outreach and academic program planning, and new facility and site development on college property in Willits.(Tentative areas of emphasis for further review in northern Mendocino include basic skills; small business development; green technology; hospitality and tourism; Native American community studies.)

LAKE COUNTY

2009-12: Acquisition of real estate and architectural plan development for new center in the community of Lakeport.

2015-16: A new college-owned Lake Center will offer first access to the California

Community College System in western Lake County, providing community-based education meeting ongoing and emerging needs. Specific programs developed in Lake will be responsive to community needs that emerge from demographic analysis and active community input through outreach and academic program planning, and new facility and site development on college property in Lake County. (Tentative areas of emphasis for further review in Lake include small business development; agriculture including introductory studies in viticulture and enology, organic farming, ranching, and agricultural marketing and tourism; public safety; environmental studies.)

 POINT ARENA FIELD STATION

2009-10: The facilities at the Point Arena Field Station (PAFS) will be refurbished through Measure W Bond funds. PAFS continues to be a unique property in the California Community College system and is a college gem. The site allows the College the ability for unique offerings of courses and field trips for science students and should be considered in future development plans.

89

Literacy Hub With the completion of the new Library / Learning Center at the Ukiah campus in 2012, the College anticipates it will become the primary literacy resource for both students and community members. As planning documents for this project indicate, the primary purpose of the new Mendocino College Library and Learning Resource Center (LLRC) is to create an environment that promotes intellectual growth. The architecture is designed to express this purpose and the space of the building is envisioned as one which will promote the expansion of knowledge and incubation of ideas and innovation. From an architectural standpoint, “the physical presence of the building in its context is a beacon for learning and signals the progress and commitment of Mendocino College.” (Schematic Design Document, TLCD Architecture, May 2008) It is envisioned that this easily accessible location of the LLRC will attract students and change some of the “commuter campus” dynamics which the College currently experiences to a more stable literacy hub. This literacy hub will include the LLRC as well as the Lowery Student Center complex and the College Plaza, creating an environment in which students will remain on campus after classes to continue their class work as well as to connect with students, faculty and tutors in a variety of settings. It is also envisioned that the accessible location of the LLRC will make it a resource for community members as well. As a two-story, 47,998 square foot building, the LLRC will be one of the largest buildings in the county. Additionally, with over 30,000 in holdings and special collections, the LLRC will likely become a significant spot for research and exploration for both students and non-students. With ten group study rooms available for small group interaction, the Library will become a place where collaborative learning, will be fostered on the campus. Students will gather to work on projects, discuss ideas, and help each other learn, extending learning beyond the walls of the classroom. Likewise, the Library will also serve as place for community events (such as author readings and lectures) that will enhance student learning and enhance the communities that we serve. Beyond the walls of the LLRC, the Library’s electronic resources will assist students, faculty and the community to have access to information on a 24/7 basis, providing the latest access to over 37,000 eBooks, millions of full-text electronic articles from journals, magazines and newspapers, and other resources to support students, faculty and staff on the main campus, at the centers, and those learning through distance education. The new Learning Resource Center (LRC) will serve as a hub for student learning outside the class room. Students, through the use of the center, will be able to work individually or in small groups to take ownership of their own learning. The LRC will house a large room with work tables that are located next to very large white boards (with over 320 square feet of writing space) that are incorporated into the walls of the center which will allow for active student

90

engagement in coursework. For instance, students will be able to problem in areas such as solve sentence structure, paragraph structure, math, chemistry and physics. The organization of the learning center will allow for student collaboration in small group break out rooms.

Specifically the LRC will offer the following student support programs:

Special Topic Workshops – These workshops will be for special topics in English writing, specifically sentence structure, paragraph structure and essay structure. Students may also attend workshops in citation methods.

Academic Excellence Workshops – These workshops will be specifically for problem-based classes such as math and science. They allow students to develop a learning base that will allow them to succeed in successive courses.

Student-led study groups Group tutorials for computer programming – The new Learning Resource Center will

allow for many student to give input during a computer programming tutorial. Group writing projects Online course projects Intercombios- These language exchanges between two people who are proficient in

different languages may take place both in the LRC as well as in the adjacent Language Lab.

Additionally, the Library / Learning Resource Center will house expanded and updated facilities for the Disability Resource Center. Areas will include a testing office as well as an upgraded technology center. The DRC is adjacent to the LRC testing area to provide testing accommodations for DRC students. The Resource Center also constitutes a classroom in which DRC students receive group instruction on classroom and study strategies.

Financial Need

The current economic crisis has already resulted in large increases of applications for financial aid. Mendocino College now has more students who need financial assistance and the overall student population is more desperate for help than ever before. Over the next five years the demand for aid will increase. Mendocino College must prepare to disseminate information about the aid available and the process required to obtain the aid. Community colleges are usually considered a low-cost college option, but the enrollment fees are only part of the real cost. The increased cost of textbooks has put a college education further out of reach for at-risk under-represented students. Students often struggle to cover child care costs, transportation and living expenses. Financial aid can be a big help, but many community college students have a harder time paying for college than their peers at four-year

91

schools. Community college students are in the best position to receive financial aid, yet they still face economic challenges that can put their educational goals out of reach. Many students are eligible for a Board of Governor’s (BOG) Fee Waiver, but many never apply. An even larger percentage of students who appear to be eligible for a Pell grant, never complete the process to receive grant aid. In 2007-08 Mendocino College awarded 2489 BOG Waivers. 840 of these were BOG-C which is the result of a student completing a FAFSA and having $1 of need. The other 1649 BOG Waivers were students who by definition should have met the federal guidelines for simple-needs test or auto-zero EFC. Mendocino College awarded 859 Pell Grants in 2007-08. Even allowing for students who fudged their income figures, defaulted on loans, or were only taking a personal enrichment class, realistically another one-thousand students should have applied for and received a Pell Grant. In the Advisory Committee on Student Financial Aid Assistance’s September, 2008 report Apply to Succeed: Ensuring Community College Students Benefit from Need-Based Financial Aid, they surveyed community college students who appeared to be eligible for financial aid, but did not apply. They obtained the following surprising results: • [Students] thought they were not eligible for financial aid (39 percent).• [Students] had sufficient funds to pay for college expenses (35 percent).• [Students] found the financial aid application form too complex (6 percent). There is considerable literature about the fact that students who receive assistance and are able to reduce the number of hours they must work are more academically successful. There are three areas Mendocino College must strive to improve if we hope to meet the increased financial needs of our students:

1. Commit real dollars and real positions to its Maintenance of Effort match for the State Financial Aid Administration funds. The match is currently met with too many in-direct costs. 2. Increase the ability of financial aid and outreach offices to improve the message to students and speed up the processing. Outreach should be done as early as middle school so parents and students understand the availability of aid AND the connection between taking A-G and academic success in college.

3. Develop college-wide buy-in that applying for aid and completing the financial aid process is only one part of the formula for success. Students must take placement tests, see a counselor to get help making program/certificate choices, follow their

92

education plan, attend classes and complete the classes. Students should not get repeated waivers for sub-standard performance.

 

Career and Technical Education

Career and Technical Education programs have multiple goals for the future. The College will become highly responsive to employer needs and will have established strong partnerships and tech prep / collaboration models with the two counties it serves. Career paths for all CTE programs will be completely fleshed out and marketed. Technology will need to be current and CTE faculty will also need to be current with their understanding of its use and application in industry. Student learning outcomes are assessed in alignment with industry standards whenever possible. The CTE faculty will be highly engaged with their advisory committees, receiving constructive feedback that is used to improve programs. Students who graduate from CTE programs at Mendocino College will be employable. Additionally, employers will be satisfied with the job preparation that the College provides.

Information Technology and Mendocino College In the future of Mendocino College, information technology will become more enmeshed in the daily lives of faculty, staff and students. The full implementation of Datatel, including the student portal will be a major force in this direction. With the portal, students will have greater access to the services they require (admission and records, financial aid, etc.) as well as asynchronous access to faculty through synchronous chat rooms, email (extension of Mendocino College email accounts to students), blogs and other technologies.

Learning in general, even in traditional “on-ground” courses will incorporate many of the 24/7 features of distance learning. Student-faculty interaction will move beyond the confines of the classroom and the office. This will expand Mendocino College’s educational opportunities to more populations within the community, especially as broadband is extended into more rural areas of the district. For faculty members, the combination of focused professional development programs and generational replacement of faculty will result in a more tech-savvy faculty willing to explore new uses and adaptations of the world-wide web to better serve students. For current faculty, professional development which focuses upon the uses of information technology, the so-called “Web 2.0” elements will enhance and expand the educational experience for “on-ground” students. New faculty, many of whom will have grown up enmeshed in Web 2.0 technologies, such as social networking, blogging, etc., will be likely to extend this familiarity to the classroom.

One can foresee the use of both asynchronous technologies (chat rooms, social networking, blogging, podcasting, webcasting), and synchronous technologies (live chat, video conferencing) employed by faculty to make learning more active and alive for students. One small example of

93

the changes might be the use of webcasting courses to various campus and center sites using synchronous technology, to make better use of faculty expertise and improve facility use efficiency.

Distance learning will continue to expand and serve more students, in essence becoming a “virtual campus” alongside the current Ukiah campus and Lake and Willits centers. It is likely that the line between “traditional” students and “on-line” students will continue to blur as students enroll in a greater mix of on-line and on-ground courses.

With the growth of broadband and greater use of Web 2.0 technologies, even greater opportunities will be explored through distance education. These opportunities range from the delivery of targeted continuing education opportunities for adults, either as individuals or contracted by their employer or professional organization, to offering specific programs of study only through the on-line venue. By 2018, it is likely that Certificate programs, especially in areas dealing with informational technology, will be offered only as on-line courses to free valuable classroom space for other instructional activity.

Demographic Change and Responses

In 2018, Mendocino College will look somewhat different from the Mendocino College of 2008, in terms of its students, faculty and staff. For students, the continued demographic shifts in the population, especially in Mendocino County, will become more evident.

The proportion of Hispanic students, especially traditional college-age students, will continue to grow. In Fall 2008, for example, Hispanic students comprised about 14.6% of enrolled students. Among traditional college-age students, aged 17 – 26, that proportion was slightly more than 20%. In 2018, one might expect that the proportions may grow to 25% and 30% of enrolled students, respectively. If the UC and CSU systems continue to restrict enrollments, this proportion may grow even larger.

At the same time, there will be a larger cohort of “life-long learners” at Mendocino College, reflecting the impact of external trends. The population of Mendocino County and, to some extent, Lake County is getting older. Higher proportions of the population in “adult” age groups coupled with a concomitant decline in the number of high school graduates will mean that Mendocino College will also be serving an older pool of potential students.

Moreover, these students will be placing different demands upon the College. Rather than focusing upon leisure and life-style courses, the demand will continue to grow for job retraining, in order to move into second and third careers as the economy continues to evolve. Along with retraining, there will be a stronger demand for “retooling” courses, both credit and noncredit, to keep currently employed people up to date in their professions, especially in the public sector and in the health care fields. Some new areas of specialized training supporting local or regional career and technical needs may also develop in future years.

94

The net effect is that while Mendocino College will continue to serve the entire community, the mix of students representing the community and the needed course offerings will have changed over the past decade.

Faculty will also reflect demographic change. As the faculty employed in 2008 ages and retires, by 2018, it is likely that Mendocino College may have a significantly younger full-time faculty. These younger faculty members will bring with them the experiences of growing up in a culture linked through the internet and Web 2.0 technologies such as social networking. Culturally, these new faculty, instructors who are also likely to be more diverse culturally than their predecessors at Mendocino, will expect that they and their students will connect using multiple avenues outside the classroom.

A particular challenge in 2018 will be to locate and retain local part-time faculty, especially in CTE curriculum. Because of the rural nature of the District, and the distance to major population centers, the pool of available, highly-skilled individuals to fill part-time positions, especially in specialized technical fields is unlikely to grow.

For management and administrative staff, the prior decade will have been one where the growth of the technological infrastructure, spurred by the full implementation of Datatel, has dramatically changed the nature of work and presented new challenges. Part of the challenge will be dealing with the wealth and accessibility of data that has accompanied the implementation of an integrated student and financial data system. In other words, part of the change will be the need to decide which pieces of information truly are key performance indicators that need to be monitored and examined and which pieces of data are chaff or “noise.” With more widespread technology, the other challenge will be the nature of “work” for administrative staff and managers. The work life of many administrative staff will have shifted from repetitive, non-people-oriented tasks (i.e. “shuffling paper”) to a greater focus upon interpersonal contact, service and problem resolution. This means that there will be greater attention paid to solving the problems of “outliers;” students and faculty who present issues or problems which fall outside the handling boundaries of information technology.

Professional development will need to focus on the cultivation of people skills (e.g. dealing with the difficult client) more than the cultivation of task skills (e.g. completion of purchase order forms). This shift may entail retraining of current employees to fulfill tasks that are more people-oriented and less task-oriented. In sum, an indirect result of information technology will be to free staff to more directly serve the members of the College community.

Campus Settings

95

Sustainability and “green awareness” have been major themes over the past decade at Mendocino College. Beginning with the installation of a solar array in 2009-10, Mendocino College has worked toward reducing its carbon footprint. New buildings, including the Library/Learning Center, have included features that help the building blend with the existing oak-studded Ukiah campus and use energy more efficiently than some of the older buildings on campus.

In response to continued climate change and an effort to reduce water consumption, much of the Ukiah campus has been re-landscaped using drought-resistant, native plants. New buildings at the Willits and Lake Centers will include features that reduce energy and water consumption and support faculty and staff to “practice what they preach about our college's green efforts” in the classroom and elsewhere.

Conclusion As the Educational Master Plan indicates, Mendocino College considers a variety of internal and external factors when planning and is committed to flexibility when responding to the needs of students and the community as well as to the changing nature of higher education. During the drafting of the current version of the EMP, the State budget has fluctuated, funding for categorical programs has been severely impacted and a cap has been placed on growth. However, the College remains committed to the Planning Assumptions as stated in both this chapter as well as Chapter 1.

Tough decisions regarding the direction of funding to support specific programs, as well as the review of programs that the College may not longer be able to offer loom in the near future. With this in mind, the guidance of the Educational Master Plan, in concert with the campus Strategic Plan, the Facilities Master Plan and the Technology Master Plan and the work of committees such as the Educational Action Plan Committee and the Planning and Budget Committee, will continue to play a crucial role as a primary resource for college-wide recommendations and decisions.

96