1

Climate Change, Sexual Violence, and GenocideWorld Without Genocide ©2018

This manuscript accompanies the PowerPoint presentation Climate Change, Sexual Violence, and Genocide. It may be used without fees or prior permission. We do ask that users inform us about their programs and actions on this important issue.

Each slide is noted in brackets with reference to the topic or title of the slide, e.g. [title]. Where items on a slide are to be presented consecutively, rather than simultaneously, the word (click) is given, indicating that the user should click the remote or use ‘page down’ or ‘enter’ for the next lines.

This document can be modified to suit specific audiences or issues.

[title]

[the big blue marble] This was the first picture of the earth fully illuminated that any of us ever saw. It was taken on the last Apollo space mission and it changed the way that we thought of our common home. It reminds us that we are all connected, and that our actions have an impact on the planet.

[three questions remaining about climate change] The question is not whether there is climate change. The questions are (click for each one)(click) Must we change?(click) Can we change?And (click) Will we change?

Let’s begin with the extent of the challenge.

[Must we change?] We are dumping 110 million tons of manmade global warming pollution into the atmosphere every 24 hours.

2

That pollution is building up, and it traps heat.

[science of global warming]Scientists have understood the basic science of global warming since the 1800s.-Energy comes to the earth from the sun in the form of light.-That energy is absorbed by the earth and warms it.-Some of that energy is sent out from the earth as heat.-Some of that heat is trapped by the atmosphere, which is good; it keeps the earth at a stable temperature.BUT-We have filled the atmosphere with heat-trapping pollution. More heat energy is trapped and can’t get back into the atmosphere. It’s warming the planet at an unprecedented rate.

What are the sources of manmade pollution?

[manmade pollution]Agricultural practices, forest burning, transportation.The major source is the burning of fossil fuels, which are oil, coal, and gas. You see on this slide the output of a single coal-processing plant in ONE DAY – tons of ash, dust, gas, and carbon dioxide.

[the largest source of global warming pollution is the burning of fossil fuels]Fossil fuels still provide more than 80% of the world’s energy. Their use, and their emissions, have gone up dramatically since World War II. [burning fossil fuels increases carbon dioxide emissions, which makes surface temperatures rise]We burn fossil fuels, Co2 (carbon dioxide) emissions rise, and temperatures rise.

[global surface temperature – departure from average]We’ve had a precipitous rise since 1980.

[16 of the 17 hottest years on record] --Have been since 2001.

3

[ocean heat content]About 70% of the surface of our planet is water, and 95% of that water is in our oceans. More than 90% of the extra heat energy that’s trapped in our atmosphere is going into oceans. This makes storms like hurricanes, typhoons, and cyclones stronger and more destructive than ever.

[Antarctica]Ten percent of Antarctica is melting. The map on the screen shows that the warming water is causing portions of Antarctica’s ice cover to melt and break apart.This warming water is putting cities at risk from the rising sea levels.

[top 10 cities at risk from sea level rise]Note Miami and New York. Other cities at greatest risk are in China, India, and Japan, which are major global trade and population centers.

[Miami, flooding] Miami now has what is called ‘sunny-day flooding.’ Miami is spending $400 million to raise streets, install pumps, and elevate sea walls. This problem occurs along the entire eastern US seaboard.

[US cities most vulnerable to coastal flooding today]Florida is truly ‘endangered.’ This means the residential, commercial, infrastructural, safety, and emergency systems in Florida – literally everything is at risk, including security. The threat to violence and terrorism skyrocket.

[rising seas threaten Easter Island]Small island nations are at great risk already. Fiji, Tuvalu, Kiribati, Vanuatu, and the Marshall Islands are predicted to be completely gone in 30 years.

[worldwide weather catastrophes]The number of climate-related extreme events has gone up worldwide. In 2017 alone, these disasters caused losses totaling over $306 billion, double the 2016 cost because there were so many more, and more catastrophic, disasters.

4

As cities become uninhabitable, the Department of Defense warns about refugee crises, pandemic diseases, water shortages, and food scarcity.

Crop yields are decreasing, especially of staple foods such as rice, corn, and soybeans. Nutrient contents have dropped significantly because of exposure to higher levels of carbon dioxide. Infectious diseases and waterborne diseases are influenced by a changing climate. More insidious diseases like Zika can take root.

All these threats imperil the global economy and give a clear answer to the question – must we change?

Let’s connect the parts and look at one very likely outcome of these multiple threats if we DON’T change: violence.

In 2015, the Pentagon issued a report asserting that “climate change is an urgent and growing threat to our national security, contributing to increased natural disasters, refugee flows, and conflicts over basic resources such as food and water. These impacts are already occurring, and the scope, scale, and intensity of these impacts are projected to increase over time.”

The report further warned, “There is significant interaction between conflict dynamics and sensitivity to climate changes.” The UN has issued similar grave warnings since 2004.

[Conflict spectrum]Alex Alvarez, a sociologist writing about climate change and genocide, sees a spectrum of violence as a result of climate change. At one end is what he calls ‘spontaneous expressive violence,’ people acting in riots and pogroms out of fear, rage, anger, or jealousy against a group that they perceive has more resources.

These activities become somewhat more organized, in the form of coups, warlordism, etc.

5

At the far extreme is instrumental violence, state-sponsored mass atrocities against specific groups, what we will talk about in a few minutes as occurring today in Syria, Darfur, and Myanmar.

The connection is clear: violence occurs more frequently when temperatures are higher.

[temperature and violence]Studies have been done around the world. These graphs summarize data from two recent studies in the US. They show an increase in violent personal crime in the first graph and an increase in rape in the second, both occurring with rising temperatures.

Researchers find that extreme weather events that affect agricultural output and income result in higher rates of violence and property crime in low-income settings. High temperatures are associated both with increased property crimes, but also most frequently with violent crimes.

[group-level violence]Intergroup political conflict, the conflict between two or more groups, increases with(click) low water availability(click) extreme temperatures(click) climate-induced changes in income

[risk factors for violence] (click for each one)What are the specific factors that will precipitate violence? (click) Competition for scarce resources – food and water(click) Migration – conflict begets conflict. People flee from a conflict area into a safer region and hostilities rise with their presence, because that new region can’t sustain their arrival. In fall 2017, 650,000 Rohingya Muslims fled from impending genocide and ethnic cleansing in Myanmar into Bangladesh, one of the most impoverished and densely-populated countries on the planet. The likelihood of outbreaks of violence in Bangladesh is extremely high.

6

(click) Weak civil society, meaning organizations to promote and protect the rights of minority groups(click) Demographic and economic inequalities. The powerful will prey on the powerless.(click) Gender inequality. When women have few rights, they are easily targeted and exploited.(click) Youth bulge. A large percent of a population that is under 25 and living in a society with scarce resources and few opportunities is a breeding ground for violence.(click) Unemployment(click) Lootable resources – the ‘resource curse.’ Minerals such as gold, diamonds, tin, coltan (the mineral that makes our cell phones vibrate), and timber often become more important than the production of food. People will fight over the mining of these resources.(click) PovertyThese factors can create a ‘catastrophic convergence,’ a pot ready to boil over with a slight rise in temperature – either literal or metaphoric.

One of the most serious triggers is the lack of availability of water.

[Water availability](click) 2.3 billion people live in water-stressed areas.(click) 1.7 billion people live in water-scarce areas.(click)By 2100, (click) a third of the world will be at risk of extreme drought

[Western North America precipitation]From 1900-2100: this graph shows a significant decline in water in our part of the world.

[Water conflicts]Fighting over water begins with control of water supplies, and tensions escalate from that point. A progression often includes the following stages:(click)-control of water resources. Water supplies or access to water are the beginning of subsequent tensions.

7

(click)--military target. Water resources are used as prime targets for military control.(click)--military or political tool. Water resources are used as a weapon or a political goal during military or political activities.(click)--terrorism. Water becomes a target or tool of violence or coercion by non-state actors. Water resources will be deliberately poisoned, or access to water will be cut off and people will die of thirst.(click)--development disputes. Water resources are a major source of dispute in the context of economic development. Some examples: In Brazil, an average of one person each day died in 2012 due to water conflicts and the country’s worst drought in 50 years.Libya, 2011: Qaddafi loyalists turned off water supplies to half the country.Ethiopia and Kenya, 2011: fighting along the border was spurred by droughts.Uganda, 2009: domestic violence increased due to water shortages.China and Tibet, 2008: protestors and police clashed over water resource policies.

[map, global water stress]This map shows that most of the world is experiencing medium to high water stress, like the US; high stress, like Australia, or extremely high stress. The challenge is the disparity between how much water is used – and how little water is available.

Climate shocks like droughts or floods cause food shortages, and the food shortages can bring on violence and riots in politically unstable countries. Fragile states that depend heavily on agriculture are most at risk of violent uprisings as they struggle to cope with climate change.

Some experts predict an overall decline in the global food supply of 30 to 50 percent.

Drought is becoming more frequent and severe in places like eastern and southern Africa. El Nino, a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific, is linked to crop damage, fires, and flash floods.

8

The issue is not just violence within a particular area that experiences drought and other climate changes. Experts say that global water shortages, displacement, or migration caused by climate change, and rising sea levels pose serious threats to international security.[Department of Defense Climate Change]In a recent study, the Department of Defense is clear about the dangers of climate change. “Climate impacts are observable, measurable, real, and have near and long-term consequences. Failure to anticipate and mitigate these changes increases the threat of more failed states, with the instabilities and potential for conflict inherent in such failures.”

A perfect example of climate change and violence is occurring today in Syria. Pulitzer-prize-winning journalist Tom Friedman examines the connection between drought and the catastrophic civil war that has left more than 450,000 people dead, 5 million people as refugees throughout the world, and 6 million Syrians displaced within their own country, and with no end in sight to the atrocity crimes.

[6-minute video] – Syria (go to the link that’s given on the slide)

[black]

[case study-Darfur] (map of Sudan, Darfur)Darfur is a region in western Sudan. Violence broke out in 2003.

[map, desert and desertification in Darfur]The worst desertification in Sudan is in the Darfur region in the west, where you see the gravest decline in precipitation, shown in dark red in the map on the right.

[Arabs – herders; Africans- farmers]The desert has expanded. People who are animal herders have to go farther and farther to find water and grazing lands for their animals. They’re encroaching on the fields of the farmers. These two groups have different ethnic identities – the grazers identify as Arabs, the farmers as Africans. They all live in Africa, and

9

they’re all Muslim, but the struggle in Darfur has pitted these two groups against each other in a conflict over land and water.

[local-national-regional](click) At the local level, Darfur is a resource-based conflict; (click) at the regional level, this has become a tribal or ethnic conflict; (click) and at the national level this is a political conflict over rights and government control. (Click for ‘rights and identity issues’)What began as farmers and grazers arguing over land has escalated into a government-sponsored genocide. The country is controlled by Arabs, and they’re fighting to displace all the Africans.

[numbers]4 million people are displaced in Darfur. 400,000 have been killed.

[Gender-Based Violence]Conflict-related sexual violence includes rape, attempted rape, abduction for the purposes of sexual exploitation, indecent assault, sexual humiliation, and grave injuries or killings following rape. Serious allegations were levelled against the Sudanese armed forces regarding a mass rape of some 200 women and girls in Tabit, in North Darfur, over 36-hour period beginning on October 30, 2014. The perpetrators were armed Arab men targeting non-Arab women. The perpetrators sought to humiliate victims and their families to reinforce a sense of powerlessness.

[International response]Wanted poster for Bashir- Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir is wanted by the International Criminal Court on 3 counts of genocide, 5 counts of crimes against humanity, and 2 counts of war crimes.

The Court’s Chief Prosecutor, Fatou Bensouda, is shown here giving a report at the UN Security Council, the 26th consecutive report that the conflict is still going on and Bashir has not yet been turned over for prosecution.

10

“To the victims, I pledge to you that I and my office will bring those responsible to justice. Our resolve is unshakeable. I hope there will be solace as history has demonstrated; time is not on the side of perpetrators but on victims,” she said in December’s briefing.

[black]In the 2017 Climate Risk Index, Honduras, Myanmar and Haiti are identified as the countries most affected by climate change in the past 20 years, followed by Nicaragua, the Philippines, and Bangladesh. Our next short case is Myanmar and its neighbor, Bangladesh.

[Burma/Myanmar map]Burma, or Myanmar, as it’s known today, is affected by cyclones. The intensity and regularity increase every year and affect the agricultural river delta region. The dry zone is impacted by debilitating droughts. 

[religions in Burma]The country is about 80% Buddhist. Four percent of the people are Muslim (red arrow).

[Rakhine state]Most of those Muslims, a group that identifies ethnically as Rohingya, about a million people, live in the southwestern part of the country in Rakhine state.

[most persecuted on earth]The UN has called the Rohingya ‘the most persecuted people on earth.’ Although Rohingya have lived in Myanmar for generations, they are denied citizenship, restricted from schools, jobs, health care, and work, and they are denied virtually all human rights. They live in barbed-wire camps in Rakhine state.

[camp in Burma]

[969 movement]

11

A movement of radical Buddhist monks known as the 969 have led the persecution of the Rohingya in recent time. The monks claim that the Rohingya are trying to turn Myanmar into a Muslim state.

[fleeing Burma]Rohingya have been fleeing from deplorable living conditions and violence for decades, taking to the seas and traveling overland as well.

In October 2017, the Myanmar government launched new attacks on the Rohingya, including a scorched-earth policy, literally burning their homes and the villages to the ground. Nearly 650,000 Rohingya fled by foot into neighboring Bangladesh – one of the poorest and most overcrowded countries on the planet, where more than a third of the people live on less than $2 a day in a place deeply affected by climate change.

[sexual violence]Since August 25, 2017, Burmese security forces have committed widespread rape against women and girls in a campaign of ethnic cleansing against Rohingya Muslims. Human Rights Watch, one of the world’s leading human rights organizations, found that Burmese security forces raped and sexually assaulted women and girls during major attacks on villages and in the weeks prior to these major attacks, sometimes after repeated harassment. In every case, the perpetrators were uniformed members of military security forces.

[Cox’s Bazaar]The Rohingya are in camps in a Bangladeshi city called Cox’s Bazaar, living in deplorable conditions and with no likelihood of permanent settlement in Bangladesh. The Bangladeshi government is trying to return them to Burma – where they were persecuted in the first place.

[treatment in neighboring countries]Wherever they have fled, they have been tormented.

[Aung San Suu Kyi]

12

The de facto ruler of Myanmar is Aung San Suu Kyi. She had been under house arrest for decades because of her pro-democracy efforts and she received the Nobel Peace Prize in 1991. The hope was that she would advocate on behalf of the Rohingya. However, she has remained silent and even denied that violence is occurring. She has been criticized around the world. Archbishop Desmond Tutu, a fellow Nobel Peace Prize holder, said to her, "If the political price of your ascension to the highest office in Myanmar is your silence, the price is surely too steep.”

[International response]In March 2018, the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum revoked Suu Kyi's Elie Wiesel Award, its highest human rights recognition that was awarded to her in 2012. The museum cited her failure "to condemn and stop the military's brutal campaign" against Rohingya Muslims.

Human rights leaders are calling the actions against the Rohingya both ‘ethnic cleansing’ and genocide, but nothing is being done to find safety and security for the Rohingya.

[armed conflict by type]All of the conflicts we’re focusing on are intra-state conflicts, shown in this graph in red as crises that occur within a country. Often these conflicts become internationalized, shown in black, as we see with the Syrian crisis, but most of today’s atrocities are localized and are fought over scarce resources. The section in gray is for extra-state conflict, conflicts fought for decolonization, which essentially disappeared by the mid-1970s. The yellow is interstate conflict, when two or more countries at war with each other.

The conflicts in Syria, in Darfur, in Myanmar are all intrastate conflicts – and all brought on by climate change.

[climate change and gender inequality](go to the link shown on the slide for a 3-minute video)

13

This 2-minute video illustrates the terrible ways in which climate change makes gender inequality worse, fueling discrimination and sexual violence.

[Climate Change Affecting Women]What are some other ways climate change affects women?

(click) There will be increased instances of violence against women. Already, one in three women experiences intimate-partner violence in her lifetime.(click) Women are at a higher risk for health and safety problems.(click) There will be reduced access for those already receiving services, because services will be shut down during crises.(click) Climate change increases armed conflict. That will cause a rise in all of above.(click) And for women who are already disadvantaged and vulnerable, their situations become even more perilous.

[Impacts on Women]Women are more likely to experience job loss from extreme weather and are less likely to recover afterwards. Most of the jobs after extreme weather are in construction and rebuilding efforts, which tend to be male-dominated professions.

[Causes of Violence]There are multiple causes for the violence after disaster.(click) Disaster causes stress to rise and a greater feeling of powerlessness.(click) There are mental health issues including PTSD from experiencing these traumas.(click) Basic provisions are no longer available - food, clean water, and shelter are gone.(click) There is a breakdown of law enforcement.(click) Social programs are no longer available or resources to prevent violence.(click) Economic disruptions happen. Jobs and homes are lost, yet people still need feed and shelter themselves and their families.

[Causes of Violence, continued]

14

Displacement causes unsafe living conditions like those in the picture.

There is also no privacy in places like a refugee camp. Any potential for domestic violence that already existed will be aggravated by the stress of conditions in a camp.

[Who Experiences Violence]Climate disasters aren’t impacting only those who are directly affected.

(click) Female relief workers,(click) Female soldiers, and(click) Female peacekeepers are also affected.

[Black Slide] We must act on climate change. This final video shows the impact of climate change in the US.

[What’s At Stake Video](go to the link on the slide for a 2-minute video)

[Climate Change Questions]We asked these at the beginning-

[click] Must we change? The answer is clearly yes.[click] Can we change? Yes, we can change with deliberate and thoughtful

action.[click] Will we change? That is up to each of us.

[Climate Disruption Chart]You see the U.S. cities most affected by climate change. New Orleans, Minneapolis, and Las Vegas are the top 3. Those cities are in three different parts of the country. We can do simple things.

[Shrink Your Footprint]We can shrink our individual, personal footprints in easy steps. Take shorter showers. Use mass transit, walk, or stay home instead of driving. Use a reusable

15

bag when you shop. Reduce, reuse, recycle- or do without. Unplug any electronics.

Also change how you eat. Don’t use plastic straws. They end up in our oceans. Don’t take a glass of water at a restaurant if you don’t expect to drink it. Bring your own containers for leftovers. And eat less meat. It’s better for you, too.

[Sustain Your Community]Change your local community. Grow community gardens and make bike paths. Plant trees and develop a community water collection system.

[Paris Agreement]Advocate for change at the local level. Trump withdrew the United States from the Paris Agreement in 2017. We are the only country in the world that is not a part of this agreement. Make sure your local city and your state have signed on. Local and regional support makes a significant impact.

[Climate Change and Violence]We have seen today how climate change impacts violence. The map at the bottom shows water stress by 2040 – which means a prediction for conflict. This will only get worse unless we change.

[Letters]Sign letters to our senator and representatives urging them to protect our climate.

[Postcards]Sign postcards for city council members and mayor. Tell them to act locally to protect your local community.

The time to act is now. The world is in our hands.

[World Without Genocide website and email contact]

16