A LI A Quarterly Publication of the-WEIN i~ STI BAN~ ii K West Bank and Gaza Office

AND GAZA November 2000

UPDATE'F / The World Bank Group 225 1 4

The- Impact of Prolonged Closure onPalestinian Poverty

At the end of October 2000, the externally except by advance on September 1, 2000 including:areas of the West Bank and Israeli permits which generally the truck convoy systems; limitedGaza under Palestinian were not available. movement at Rafah, Erez andAuthority (PA) jurisdiction Allenby Bridge; no free access to(WBG) were subject to a tight Based on information available, external markets and continuing,closure. The approximately continued tight closure (as it but moderate restrictions of125,000 Palestinians previously exists at end of October 2000) movement between and withinworking in Israel (with and will have dire consequences for parts of the West Bank and verywithout permits) were prevented the Palestinian economy with limited movement between Westfrom leaving WBG to their jobs declining production and trade Bank and Gaza and to/fromin Israel and all work permits and steeply rising unemployment Jerusalem.were canceled. Further, for and poverty rates. The closure We use available information onGaza, the only point of entry for has demonstrated that in the labor creation in WBG, publiccommodities was Karni, through absence of external access and expenditures, workers' remit-which goods could enter only freedom of internal movement in tances, and public assistance toafter security checks and back to the WBG, various measures estimate GDP and per capitaback loading/unloading from referred to as closure or income growth until June 2000,Israeli trucks. Construction 'gseparation' are likely to have and apply a set of conservativematerials were not entering as of negative economic conse-the last week of October, and quences, with increasing povertypassage of other commodities in the enclosures. ' Labor suppll is expected to remaiii at its

was limited. Palestinian trucks observed level of June 2000 until December

could no longer leave Gaza. In This article sets out a quantitative 2000, and grow by 5percent in 2001; nominzal

the West Bank, roadblocks exercise aimed at measuring the government eApen7dittures are expected to grow

throughout thie West Bank, economiiic impact of the closure z aswell by 5 percen t anrnuall;, worker.s

around villages and munici- on poverty in the PA areas. The atnnually: foreign assistanzce remains

palities and around greater exercise takes as its "Base Case" uncbaenged.

Jerusalem prevented movement the situation existing in earlyof goods and people. September 2000. The Base Case CONUNTS PAGE

Palestinians in PA areas of the assumes (i) access to Israel for The Peace Facilitv 5WBG had difficulties moving about 60,000 permitted andbetween the PA enclosures and 65,000 unpermitted Palestinian RecentEconomic Developments 7

could not travel to or from employees and (ii) the Bank Group Operations 11

Jerusalem or Israel or exit movement restrictions in place Bank Group News 18

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assumptions' to extrapolate After this initial period, 25,000 In 2001, response to continuedobserved economic trends until workers only will be allowed to closure under the Worst CaseDecember 2001. work in Israel. The remaining would stabilize into a low

100,000 workers who used to equilibrium, with producers,Over the period January 1999 - work in Israel would have to seek consumers, and workers adjustingJune 2000, the Palestinian domestic employment after their behavior to the neweconomy continued the recovery Ramadan. economic situation. Householdscommenced in 1997. GDP grew would reduce their savings rate.by 6.1 percent during the year For commodities, we presume The 2001 shortfall in GNP would1999 and during the first half of movement restrictions similar to reach $US 1.7 billion. Income per2000, job creation in WBG those in effect in late O)ctober capita would decrease by 27continued to increase significantly, 2000, with back-to-back loading percent with respect to the level itboth in public and private sectors, in Gaza and limited movement in would have been in the Base Casewith an increase of 8 percent in the West Bank. We presume that scenario. The poverty rate wouldthe number of working days in with such severe restrictions and reach 43.7 percent. Gaza wouldcomparison to 1999. Even if job cuts to external markets, be particularly hard hit, with evencreation did not continue growing transaction costs would increase higher poverty rates andat this pace during the second half by 50 percent until the end of unemployment rates reaching 50of 2000 and in 2001, GDP was still Ramadan, and then by 30 percent percent or more.projected to grow at the average in 2001 with respect to the Juneannual rate of 5.2 percent between 2000 levels. Productivity levels in Precise conclusions on the1999 and 2001. Thus, by 1999, trade and transport activities potential economic impact ofthe WBG had recovered from the would then decline by the same prolonged closures would beeconomic decline during the early relative amounts. Labor and capital difficult to draw now, because wepeace process years of 1993-1997. productivity in the other sectors do not yet have precise

would decline by 25 percent and quantitative measures of what hasUnder the Base Case, due largely 15 percent during the same happened in September andto demographic pressure, real periods. October. Projecting to the future,income per capita was expected it is possible that there would beto stagnate between 1999 and Using these assumptions we variations in restrictions. Our2001, with a possibly small decline estimate that the impact of recent assumptions regarding the exactof 0.4 percent. The poverty rate confrontations and closures during increase in transaction costs, or thehad been expected to reach 21.7 the period 28 September - 27 severity of external/internalpercent of the population in October 2000 has caused an closures are therefore subject toDecember 2001 (against an estimated shortfall in national adjustment. We therefore performestimated rate of 21.4 percent in income (GNP) of US$ 210 million, a sensitivity analysis below inDecember 1999). which is comparable to the order to measure the impact of

estimate provided recently by such assumptions on the predictedUNSCO for a shorter period. poverty rate. The following tables

If prolonged until the end of 2000, report estirated poverty rates forImpact of Prolonged the Worst Case closures would December 2000 and 2001 under

Closures in October - induce severe economic damage. different scenarios.We estimate that the shortfall in

December 2000 and Until GNP for 2000 could reach US$ 630December 2001 million, and that income per capita

could decrease by 11 percent withFor this exercise, we make a set respect to the level it would haveof assumptions in order to quantify reached in the absence of suchthe impact of prolonged severe severe closures. The share ofclosures. For the "Worst Case" we population living below thepresume that until the end of poverty line will increase fromRamadan (early January 2001), all about 21 percent to about 28.3Palestinian workers will be percent at the end of the year.prevented from working in Israel.

November 2000 2

Estimated Poverty Rates. December 2000External Closure Base Case Small Medium Worst Case

Internal ClosureBase Case 21.1 22.1 23.2 24.8Small 22.0 22.9 24.7 26.0Mledium 22.8 24.2 25.7 27.4Worst Case 23.6 25.3 26.9 28.3

Internal Closures:

Base Case Business as of September 1, 2000.Small 20 percent increase in transaction costs; 10 percent decrease in productivity.Medium 35 percent increase in transaction costs; 20 percent decrease in productivity.Worst Case 50 percent increase in transaction costs; 25 percent decrease in productivity.

External Closures:

Base Case Business as of September 1, 2000.Small 1 month full closure - no workers permitted in Israel.Medium 2 months full closure - no workers permitted in Israel.Worst Case 3 months full closure - no workers permitted in Israel.

Estimated Poverty Rates. December 2001Extemal Closure Base Case Small Medium Worst Case

Internal ClosureBase Case 21.7 26.0 29.8 34.4Small 26.6 28.8 33.0 38.2Medium 29.3 31.9 36.5 42.5Worst Case 29.7 34.4 40.9 43.7

Internal Closures:

Base Case Business as of September 1, 2000.Small 10 percent increase in transaction costs; 5 percent decrease in productivity.Medium 20 percent increase in transaction costs; 10 percent decrease in productivity.Worst Case 30 percent increase in transaction costs; 15 percent decrease in productivity.

External Closures:

Base Case Business as of September 1, 2000.Small 100,000 Palestinians allowed to work in Israel.Medium 62,500 Palestinians allowed to work in Israel.Worst Case 25,000 Palestinians allowed to work in Israel.

The "Small" and "Medium" Cases presume intermediate levels of restrictions.

November 2000 3

Impact on Private Investment and Job Creation6:

While the closure immediately impacts on development, the "engine of growth" needsunemployment and trade, its most damaging impact substantial repair just to get it back to where itmay be on prospects for economic growth through was - barely working.job creation and private sector development. Astill unpublished World Bank survey of private In agriculture, the situation is dire, since Octoberbusinessmen and investors indicates that is the season for cultivating olives, guava anduncertainty remains the chief obstacle to strawberries. Given the tight movement restrictionsinvestment. Private investment has been stagnant around Palestinian villages, many are not able tothroughout the 1993-2000 period. Investors note reach their fields. For these who do, bringing athe closures, high transaction costs, limited access crop to market is extremely difficult and sometimesto the lowest cost inputs, restrictions on access to dangerous. While the scope of these problemsmarkets, the physical separation of the small are uncertain and subject to constant change, thePalestinian market, and an uncertain Palestinian fact of their existence imposes a chill on anylegal and institutional framework as obstacles to investor's plans.investment.

Agriculture is a means for many unemployed toProductivity levels are less than 30% and firms in supplement their incomes, especially during timesthe Gaza Industrial Estate (as elsewhere in the of closure. If the closure and other measures alsoWBG) are experiencing a severe liquidity crunch, impact adversely on workers being able to workjust as transaction costs escalate. For investors, the fields, plant and bring crops to market, it isthe message is that despite years of progress and obvious that such closure policies impact mostdonor assistance, uncertainty remains an severely on the unemployed, the marginal andunquantifiable factor. Thus, private sector the poor.

November 2000 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~4

Proposed (Holst II) Umbrella Facility for Donor Assistanceto the West Bank and Gaza

Background is a more developmentally sustainable, but stillflexible, vehicle for donors who are interested in

In the last six years, the Holst Fund has been an providing such support to the Palestinians. Theseextremely valuable mechanism for providing budget operations are already being supported by a numberand emergency employment support. However, as of bilateral and multilateral donors and are designedthe donor community moves away from providing to expand to accommodate additional donoremergency reconstruction assistance and budget contributions as available. The PA is currently seekingsupport, the Holst Fund is nearing the end of its additional financing for CDP II. A CDP III is underusefulness in its present form. The donors agreed at design to meet new emergency needs.the AHLC meeting on February 4, 1999 that the HolstFund would wind down this year and that the World Finally, in terms of visibility and accountability, theBank would explore the modalities for a new Holst Fund was not designed to track the flow ofmultidonor fund which could help mobilize donor individual donor contributions, but rather pooled donorfinancing for emerging development and emergency funds. This was a fully satisfactory arrangement whenchallenges. the Holst Fund was used for budgetary support, but is

not the most efficient way to meet the increasingIn exploring the possible modalities for a new umbrella requests of bilateral donors to use their funds forprogram structure, it is useful to take a brief look at operations targeted to the current closure crisis.the original Holst structure and its limitations.

The Hoist was originally conceived as a mechanism toprovide emergency budgetary support for the new the PEACE Facility - A New ProjectPalestinian Authority (PA). Later, when violence and Finance Umbrella for New ChaUengesclosure marred the evolving peace process in early1996, the donors responded to the resulting economic The PEACEFacilitywould be ready as a vehicle wherecrisis by transforming the Hoist Fund into an instrument donor funds could be quickly contributed andfor employment generation. In April 1996, the disbursed to meet Palestinian needs.Emergency Employment Generation Program (EEGP)came into being, and at its height in June 1996employed the equivalent of some 20,000 people per Activities Supported by The PEACE Facilitymonth. Since 1997, most of the contributions to theHoist Fund have gone towards the EEGP. To meet these needs, the Bank is setting up Te PEACE

Facility as a type of "umbrella" facility -- simply a

The budget support function, happily, is no longer structure that provides a common link to eachnecessary nor desirable on a regular basis. Since contributing donors' funds and activities financed underAugust 1997, no Holst funds have been used for it. Unlike the Holst Fund, under The PEACE Facilitybudgetary support. In terms of emergency umbrella, donors' funds would be held in individualemployment, there are now better-targeted trust fund accounts, thereby allowing donors to earmarkinstruments. In 1997, experience from the EEGP funds for specific activities, be they technical assistanceinformed the design of the Bank, OPEC Fund and or specific project financing. Such an arrangementCanadian-financed Community Development Project was not possible under the Holst Fund, where monies(CDP) where small-scale, labor-intensive works were were commingled. Administrative fees and associatedchosen and supported by the local communities. The program costs -- such as auditing, Bank supervisionSecond Community Development Project (CDP II) and oversight -- would be shared by all the donors inwhich became effective in April 1999, concentrates the program. Internally, a single Initiating Brief for aon the poorest communities, inclucing refugee camps Trust Fund (IBTF) would be created for The PEACEin the West Bank and Gaza, thus refining earlier project Facility umbrella and would cover all subsequentimplementation techniques, expanding the scope of deposits by individual donors. This would be quitethe program and better targeting the projects to the important in reducing the time and cost to the Bank inneediest communities. While the EEGP responded administering donor funds.to the needs at the time, a program such as the CDP

November 2000 5

The PEACE Facility would serve the following four would be accepted, unless contributions were for apurposes, but, in general, the funds would be handled general, unspecified TA trust fund. There wouldin the same manner regardless of the use: not be a restriction on the recipient or implementing

agency, but all funds would flow from the Bank,1. Emergency Needs. Political events are uncertain through the Ministry of Finance and then to the

and the establishment of The PEACE Facility would recipient/ implementing agency.allow the Bank and other donors to react quicklyto emerging needs. The necessary legal, accountingand reporting requirements would be established Implementation Arrangementsnow so that when/if the need arose for donors tomove funds quickly into the Palestinian economy The PEACE Facility would likely be a grouping of donorfor either technical assistance or operational work, specific accounts with sub-accounts for different7he PEACE Facility could quickly be called into activities. This would allow donors to makeaction. One of the early criticisms of the Holst Fund contributions either individually or jointly for specificwas that it took too long to get started. activities defined by the PA and the donor(s) rather

than pooling contributions for general purposes.2. Financing of Projects without Bank Involvement. Donors who want to use The PEACE Facility would

In some cases, donors may prefer to channel funds enter into an agreement with the Bank on the occasionthrough the Bank for specific operations that are of its first financing. A Framework Agreement wouldnot also Bank-financed. The PEACE Facility could be prepared by the Bank's Legal Department for eachbe used to fund these operations. Grants would donor. The agreement could then be modified forhave to be for an amount of us $500,000 or more subsequent project financing by a simple Letter ofand could not be tied to national procurement. An Agreement. Because funds would not be pooled,administrative fee would need to be set/agreed with extensions and modifications would be tailored to theeach donor on a case-by-case basis. This individual donor and would not require the massarrangement would be necessary given that the Bank mailings and approvals required under the current Holstwould incur the same responsibilities and liabilities Fund arrangements. Income generated from thewhether the operation was a Bank design or not. investment of donor contributions would be used toThe objective in setting the fee would be for the cover, in whole or in part, the Bank's administrativeBank to be reimbursed for actual costs based on a costs. Alternative arrangements would need to bewell-prepared budget. agreed upon in instances where investment income

does not cover the Bank's costs. A flexible fee structure3. Cofinancing with Bank projects is done through is proposed to accommodate the anticipated range of

individual agreements between the Bank and the different PEACE Facility activities.donor and the Bank and the Palestinian Authority.If a donor requests it, however, The PEACE Facility The Bank's Legal Department would also prepare thecould be used to provide cofinancing for Bank- initial Grant Agreement between the Bank and thefinanced operations. Donors who wish to provide PA, again with the indication that future contributionsfunds under the current cofinancing arrangements by the donor could be made and that the Grantwith the Bank (i.e., not under The PEACE Facility) Agreement would then be modified by a simplewould, of course, be free to continue to do so and exchange of letters between the Bank and PA.may find the existing arrangements preferable.

Funds would be kept in separate accounts organized4. Financing for Technical Assistance Activities. Often by donor and activity, and disbursements would be

a specific technical assistance activity needs made by the Bank into special accounts for projectfinancing, but donors do not have an appropriate implementation as appropriate. The Bank's Trust Fundvehicle through which to quickly channel funds. Department would provide quarterly unauditedThe PEACE Facility would allow donors to finance financial statements , as well as annual audits of donors'TA either singly or with other cofinancing partners. accounts. A general report on The PEACE FacilityWe would expect this would cover donor activities would be provided to all donors bi-annually.contributions for specific activities, although ageneral fund would be useful and could be created Actual project implementation could be with or throughif there were sufficient donor interest. Funds for the Bank or in cooperation with PECDAR, UNDP, a PAdifferent activities would be kept in individual donor agency, or whatever agency the donor prefers.sub-accounts. No grants less than US$500,000

November 2000 6

Recent Econoniic Developments In agriculture, which accounts for slightly less than 10percent of output, there are indications that olive yields in

* Economic Output. The economic situation in West Bank 2000 are significantly higher than in recent years. As a resultand Gaza has changed dramatically for the worse since the of the closures, the high yields may, however, be off-set bylast issue of the West Bank and Gaza Update. PA controlled difficulties in harvesting and subsequently processing theareas are currently - by end-October - under tight closure. olives.All approximately 60,000 work permits for Palestinianworkers in Israel and Israeli Settlements have been * Private Consumption and Investmenit. The domesticwithdrawn. And only a very limited number - if any - of the private sector's contribution to growth in WBG has beenusual approximately 70,000 non-permit holding Palestinians weak since 1994. Investment in productive capital has beenhave been able to go to work. Trade flows have been suppressed in favor of residential construction. Total privateseverely disrupted as restrictions on movements of goods investment amounted to approximately 27 percent of GDP,have been tightened. The domestic economic activity is of which residential investment accounted for more thanspiraling downwards as demand is dropping and producers half. Further, data for new licensed construction indicatesare unable to keep up production because of lack of inputs. that the growth in residential investment also in 1999Official statistics for labor market developments cover only outpaced that of non-residential. The current situation isthe first half of the year 2000. They do therefore not take extremely damaging for the business investment climate,into account the latest developments. Estimates of the and it must therefore be expected that investnment ineconomic impact of these developments must therefore be productive capital will be further depressed.based on a number of assumptions. With respect to private consumption, households will try

to counteract the drop in incomes by running down savings.Assuming, as a base case, that the tight closures recently This strategy is, however, not sustainable in the longerimposed on the Palestinian economy had not been in effect term, and of course not an option for households withoutat all, and further making a conservative assumption of savings. If the situation does not improve quickly, mostonly limited increase in employment both within WBG and households would have to seriously reduce consumptionfor Palestinians working in Israel in the second half of 2000 pushing a significant share of the population below theand in 2001, it is estimated that GNP per capita would have poverty line.decreased by 1.3 percent and 1.7 percent in 2000 and 2001,respectively. Thus in the base case, despite solid growth * ExtenIal Trade. Palestinian foreign trade is extremelyduring the last couple of years, average incomes would one-sided with around 3/4 of all import originating in Israelstill only be approximately at the level of 1994. and 95 percent of its export destined for the Israeli market.

The current severe restrictions on movements of goods areif the severe closures currently in effect are continued, a huge threat to Palestinian export. In the short run exportershowever, the results for the Palestinian economy would be suffer considerable losses, and in the longer term there is adamaging. A continuation until the end of 2000 is estimated great risk of losing market shares as demand for Palestinianto result in a loss in GNP of approximately US$ 630 million, goods will be met by other suppliers.equivalent to a drop in GNP per capita of 12 percentcompared to the base case. Such a decrease in average * Labor Mlarkets. The Palestinian labor market isincomes would have significant impact of the share of the characterized by a very high growth in the labor force.population living below the poverty line. (See the article Since the third quarter of 1995, which was the first quarteron The Impact of Prolonged Closure on Palestinian Poverty.) the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS) publishedServices, both private and public, dominate the Palestinian their quarterly labor force survey, the labor force hasproduction accounting in total for more than 60 percent of increased by 34 percent, corresponding to some 168,000total output in 1999, see Figure 1. The service sector, persons. see Figure 2. In the 2nd quarter of 2000 the laborespecially tourism, faces great difficulties as a result of the force was estimated at 659,000 (excluding the part of Eastcurrent closures and unrest. Jerusalem administered by Israel).

Figure 1. Sectoral Contribution to GDP in 1999 The growth in the labor force was primarily driven by theunderlying demographic trends, notably an average annual

Agriculture increase in the working age population of 4.5 percent,adding 114,000 persons to the labor force since 1995Q3.The average labor force participation rate is rather low inWest Bank and Gaza, although some increase has been

Manufacturing evident over the last five years. The latest available figure,covering the second quarter of 2000, puts it at 42.3 percent

Private compared to 39 percent in the third quarter of 1995,Services corresponding to an additional increase in the labor force

Construction of 54,000 persons.

PublicServices

November 2000 7

Figure 2. Increase in Labor Force Figure 4. Change in

1,000 Persons Employment Compared to 1996180 1,000 Persons

160 120

140 100 Q

120

100 8

80 60

60 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~40

409 236Q07Q9 29 4809-49Q20230 20 4 iQ 30 10

-203 Demographic Development * Total Increase in Labor Force Ep in sael it WBG

EWBG Employment in Israel *Within WBG

Since 1997 unemployment, until recent closures, hasdropped steadily, the latest figures from PCBS, covering Employment growth within WBG was very strong in the2000 Q2, reporting an average unemployment rate of 9.0 2nd quarter of 2000, +7e2 percent in the number of jobpercent, see Figure 3. The unemployment rate is higher in compared to the 1v s quarter of 2000, reversing the trendGaza than in the West Bank. The impact of closures in over the previous 3 quarters of declining growth rates, see1995 and 1996 was felt strongly in both Gaza and the West Figure 5. The increase was particularly strong in the WestBank, evinced e.g., by the sharp increase in unemployment Bank, we here the number of employed persons incadin the 2nd quarter 1996. 8.2 percent. In Gaza the increase was 5.1 percent.

Figure 3. Unemployment Rate Figure 5. Quarterly Employment

40% - Growth Within WBG35% - ~~~~~~~~~~~~12%-

_________________________________________ -10%

30% . 6

25%M 6%4%

20% 2%

15% -,0%

10% -2%

5% -~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~4

0% -8%(0 to (0 (0 (- 0- 0-- (0 (0 (0 (0 0 ) ) 000 00 0 ) 0 00 00 0 ° o 0 0 CD -10%0) C'4 0) " 04 0) 04 0 c - 04 0 O oao a CY a a aY a aa a aCoy Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

98 98 98 99 99 99 99 00 00WB -U-G * WBG

+ WB -_-G

The drop in unemployment is both the result of increasingemployment within West Bank and Gaza - both private * Prices and Wages. The close ties between the Palestinianand public - and increased access to jobs in Israel. and Israeli economies are reflected in the parallel

movements in Palestinian and Israeli consumer prices, seeEmployment of Palestinian workers in Israel has increased Figure 6 The high import content of Palestinian productionby 50,000 since end-1996, see Figure 4. The majority and consumption, originating mainly in Israel, means that(approximately 100,000 out of a total of 130,000 in 2000Q2, Israeli price changes quickly feeds into price developmentsaccording to PCBS) of Palestinian workers working in Israel in the West Bank and Gaza'.come from the West Bank, where the porous border createseasier access for non-permit holding workers. Jobs createdwithin West Bank and Gaza has added some 108,000 persons I Analvses sutggest that uitbin the same month as much, as 25 percent of

to employment, of which approximately 32,000 are a change in Israeli cornsumerprices are reflectec in consumerprices inattributable to the expansion of the PA payroll. the West Bank acnd Gaza.

November 2000 8

Figure 6. Consumer Price Figure 8. Annual Increase inIndex, February 1996 = 100 Average Daily Wage

130 _____________________________________________________ 20%130 18%

125- 16%14%

120 -12%

10%115 -8%

6%110. 4%-

2%105 - 0%

Agric. Manuf. Constr. Comm. Transp. Service100- W|W1WsW

( (0 N- N - N- 00 (0 XO 0 0) 0 0) 0 , )8 ° °1998 01999 320000) 0) 0) 0) 0) CD 0) 0) 0) 0) >)0 )0 )0 0 18699 20

66 6 0 ( Z °> Note: 2000 refers to the first 6 months, compared to the sameperiod in 1999.

+WBG IsraelHigher wages is the main motivation for Palestinian workers

The Palestinian economy has benefited from the Israeli to seek employment in Israel, see Figure9 On average, thecommitment in recent years tobenfited .from rael daily wage for a Palestinian working in Israel isof 10-12 percent in 1994-1996 inflation has graduallv been approximately 70 percent higher than if he - the vast majority

Palestinians working in Israel are male - had chosen a jobreduced to only 5.5 percent in 1999. In the first half of 2000 within West Bank or Gaza. The premium on wages in Israelinflation rates have been even lower. The latest figures report is even more remarkable considering that most Palestiniansthat the rate of inflation in August was 2.9 percent, see working in Israel are unskilled, emploved predominantlyF-igitire 7. in the construction sector. The wage premium has been

remarkably stable in the last three years.F4igure 7. Inflation Rates

12

Figure 9. Average Daily Wages for Palestian10 Employees

NIS8 _ e120

6 - 100 _

8011-

2 4 -

0, , , , 200° EN- °' co N0 - > n 0),, 0) 0 E 20

LL Cy < z0 0)

L .. < Z LL < Z L L <

* C 0 X) $0 0) 8-- Israel +--WBG CO n n N v CN 0t a4--Isral--4--WB a ~ a a a a a a a

---- In WBG -U-In IsraelIn 1998 and 1999 Palestinian employees enjoyed significantgrowth in wages, but especially in the first half of 2000, the Fiscal Accounts. The fiscal situation of the PA isgrow7th rate has been declining. On av7erage, daily wages *FiclA oltThfsaliuton ftePAsincreased by 6.1 percent in the first 6 months of 2000 fundamentally fragile as it is squeezed from two sides. Thecompared to the same period last year. Accounting for the potential for further increases in revenues is limited andconcurrent increase in consumer prices of 3.4 percent, real the pressure on expenditures are not likely to abate in thewages increased by a modest 2.4 percent - less than half near future. Part of the pressure on expenditure is self-the increase in 1998 and 1999. Wage growth in the commerce inflicted, namely the seemingly uncontrolled public hiring.and service sectors lagged behind, see Figure 8. But the demographic development will also increase

pressure on public expenditures, e.g., through necessaryexpansion of the educational system.

November 2000 9

In the current situation, restrictions on movements of personswithin WBG will further undermine the fiscal situation, bymaking it more difficult to enforce tax collection. Further,as was the case during the periods of severe closure in1995 and 1996, there can be expected public pressure onthe PA to cushion some of the adverse effects by expandingpublic employment. The experience from these years isthat it is very difficult subsequendy to reverse the trend ofexpanding the public payroll.

An additional factor affecting fiscal accounts is Israel'sdecision to slash purchase taxes on a wide range of goods.While the economic effects of the reduction in the highlydistortionary purchase taxes undoubtedly will be beneficial,the immediate effect for the PA is loss of revenue. Theexpected revenue from an agreement on the purchase taxwas not explicitly included in the Budget for 2000, butnevertheless there was an expectation of some revenuefrom this source on the part of the PA.

The PA has enjoyed substantial support from theinternational donor community. In the period 1994-1999 atotal of approximately US$2.8 billion has been disbursed.The largest share of the donor financing has been devotedto public investment, of which the share of donor financingin every year since 1995 has been 100 percent. In recentyears, donor support has added approximately 30 percentto the revenues of the PA, seeFigure 10. According to figuresfrom MOPIC, total disbursements in the first half of 2000amounted to US$183 million, as compared with US$464 in1999 as a whole.

%ofGDP Figure 10. Total PA Revenues35%/,

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

OCurrent Revenue *Foreign Aid

November 2000 10

Bak GrupOpr- Budget Allocation: US$100,000; (6)the have been built and the schools haveBanmk Group Opefaidons Palestinian ITT Center - Budget been fully furnished. Under the Saudi

Allocation: US$930,000. The value of Grant in the Nlest Bank, construction ofA. Multi-Donor Fund current activity under the TATF is US$6.7 all of the planned eight schools hasAdminiistration million. The closing date of the TATF is been completed and the schools have

June 30, 2001. been fully furnished. Three new schools* Holst Fun7d. As of September 2000, are ready for tendering. In Gaza,the Holst Fund has received pledges of B Investment Projects construction of all of the planned threeUS$269.2 million from 26 donor countries, schools has been completed and theof which US$269 million has been paid As of September 2000, the World Bank schools have been fully furnished.in and US$259 million has been disbursed Group has 20 projects under imple- Construction of two new schools isby the Bank to the Palestinian Authority mentation, three completed projects, and complete. Under the first Italian Grant in(PA). Of the total disbursed, US$213 six projects under preparation through the West Bank, all of the plannedmillion was for recurrent budget support the World Bank, IGA and IFC construction of six schools and oneand US$46 million for employment Programs. sanitary unit has been completed.generation projects. Since the initiation Curricula have been established by theof the Employment Generation Program Curriculum Center. Under the second(EGP) in 1996, over 700 microprojects World Bank Ongoing Projects Italian Grant in the West Bank,have been completed. One of the g Educatiol and Health Rehabilitation construction of four schools and threeactivities being undertaken under the Project (EHRP). [US$20 million credit community centers is progressing well.EGP, in partnership with the Danish from the International Development Furniture, books, and laboratoryGovernment funded project, is the Association (IDA); US$20 million grant equipment are being supplied. Under theinfrastructure rehabilitation of the middle from Saudi Arabia; three grants totaling Australian Grant, strengthening of policy-areas of the Gaza Strip - Bureij, Maghazi, US$8.65 million from Italy; and US$0.40 making, planning, and research capacityand Nusairat. While all funds have been million grant from Australia]. The Project within the Ministry of Education,committed, the completion of works and is well advanced and is progressing establishment of a school mappingdisbursements of the remaining funds will satisfactorily. The IDA Fund is looo,,b database, and a maintenance schedulingcontinue through the second half of 2000. committed and 98% disbursed; the Saudi system for the Ministry have all beenAccordingly, the Holst Fund closing date Grant is 82% committed and 58% completed.has been extended to the first quarter of disbursed; the Italian Grants are 54% * Health System Development Projectcalendar year 2001. committed and 28% disbursed; and the (HSDP). (US$7.9 million credit from the* Technical Assistance Trust Fund Australian Grant is 100% committed and World Bank.) The development objectives(TAmP). As of September 2000, the TATF 100% disbursed. The Project is being of the Project are to enhance thehas received donor contributions of implemented through PECDAR, the management capacity of the Ministry ofUS$24.4 million, of which a total of US$20 Ministry of Health, and the Ministry of Health (MOH) and improve access tomillion has been disbursed to the Education. high-quality and affordable services forPalestinian Authority. The objectives of the Health Component: Under the IDA primary healthcare (PHC), especially inTATF are. (a) to assist in building Fund in Gaza, all of the planned 10 clinics rural and underserved areas. The ProjectPalestinian institutions and to enhance the have been built, furnished, and the components are:Palestinian capacity for self-government; software programs installed. Under the Compotnent 1 will: (i) develop the(b) to facilitate the implementation of Saudi Grant in the West Bank, one clinic funlctional standards for Level 11 PHCinvestments in the Palestinian authorities; has been built, fully furnished, and facilities (small clinics that can ser-ve the(c) to assist the Paledtiman autporities an equipment installed. The construction of basic needs for approximately 8,000 tothe des(ign of tntegrated polictes and the extension for Rafdia Hospital and 12,000 people); (ii) build MOH's capacityprograms; (d) to assess the feasibiYty of Yatta Hospital is in progress. In Gaza, to plan and design PHC clinics; and (iii)proposed physical investments for the three clinics have been built, fully replace approximately 40 substandardlonger term; and (e) to encourage the furnished, and equipment installed. The PHC facilities, including equipment andgrowth of the private sector. The World construction of one community hospital fumiture, with clinics that meet the qualityBank and PECDAR jointly administer the and the Ministry of Health's department standards.TATF. building is progressing well. Contracts for

the supply of equipment for the hospital Component 2 will establish a HealthThe TATFchasirecently initiateda number are being awarded. Under the Italian Information Center (HIC) that wouldof newv activities. New activities under Grant in Gaza, the Ministry lhas approved support the development and maintenancecontract are as follows: (1) Financial the final version of the Pilot M,aster Plan of the Management Information SystemIntermediation Training (FIT) - Contract for Al Nasser Hospital in Khan Younis. (MIS) functions of MOH, and provideValue: US$250,000; (2) Youth Summer The rehabilitation works for the existing technical assistance for the developmentCamps Institutional Capacity Building hospital, the existing sewage system, and of a basic clinical infom-ation system andProject - Budget Allocation: US$100,000; the construction of a corridor link a unified health insurance information(3) Mleteorological and Climatological between the existing and the new hospital system. The clinical information system willServices Development Project - Budget will soon commence. also provide the monitoring tool for theAllocation: US$100,000; (4) The Ministry activities of the Quality Improvementof Transport Driving Licensing Project - Eduication Component: Under the Prograni (QIP) supported inContract Value: US$200,000; (5) IDA Fund in Gaza, 11 new schools and Conpn1?ezt3Publication of Technical Studies Facility the extensions for 11 existing schools

Nkr_,.tht 211

Component 3 will expand the scope information system for municipalities in Water Authority (PWA), to supportof the QIP in order to establish quality the WBG was awarded and is in the implementation and monitoring of thestandards and introduce quality implementation stage. A Geographic Project, and to provide independentimprovement measures for selected Information System (GIS) is under auditors to monitor the Operator'spriority health interventions. Technical implementation for Gaza municipality technical and financial performance. Theassistance will also be provided to and under RFP preparation for Hebron implementing agency is the PWA. Somepromote rational drug use and improve and under tendering for Nablus of the main achievements after four yearsboth quality and expenditure controls in municipality. A state-of- the-art computer of implementation of the Project asterms of contracts with overseas center and network have been audited by an independent auditor are:providers. The QIP will also include the completed for Gaza municipality, are in over 1,200 km of pipe have beendevelopment of clinical and operational the implementation stage for Jenin surveyed for leaks and over 16,000 illegalstandards for PHC services. The Project municipality, and in the awarding stage connections identified; over 22,000is being implemented by MOH. for Rafah municipality. service connections have been replaced,

over 20,000 meters repaired, and a total* Municipal Infrastructure Develop- * Second Municipal Infrastructure fover 0,000 m etersrreplacd;ment Project (V1IDP). (US$40 million Project (61IDP II). (US$26 million total Unaccount3edFor Water (UFW) hpas beencredit from the World Bank; US$1.74 Project cost, lUS$7.5 million credit from redce ounde4F % to 30%; relibemillion from Greece; and EURO3.67 the International Development disufectant (96% of water samples havemillion from Italy.) This Project aims at Association (IDA) and US$5.0 million positie chone residual). hes wokorehabilitating high priority municipal grant from Saudi Arabia). This Project positive chle esityaof the worktalinfrastructure networks and svstems in has been approved by the World Bank creating the legal entity of the CoastalWater Utility in Gaza started in Januarythe West Bank and Gaza (WBG) through Board on June 20th, 2000 and is in effect. 1999 and is ongoing. Disbursements areworking directly with five selected The main objective of MIDP II is to approxinatelv US$23.4 milhon andmunicipalities (Gaza Nablus Hebron improve infrastructure services (roads, , : . . . .. .. ~~~~~~'. commitments are nearly US$24.8 million,Rafah and Jenin); the Ministry of Local water, and drainage), including high representing about 99% ofthetotal credit.Govemment (MLG); the Ministry of Public priority sections of the regional roadWorks (MoPW); the Palestinian Water network and rehabilitation of village and * Southern Area WVater and SanitationAuthority (PWA); and PECDAR. The municipal water networks in WBG. The Improvement Pro ect (SAWSlP). (US$21implementing agencies are MLG, Project will also provide support to the million from the World Bank and EURO30PECDAR, MoPW, and PWA. Focus is on Ministry of Public Works to establish a million in parallel financing from EIB).initiating institutional reform and capacity road maintenance management system The Project consists of: (a) the provisionbuilding at the local government level. for the first time in the Palestinian of an international Operator [General desSo far, 85% of available funding has been Authority. In addition, it will continue to Faux, Khatib & Alami (GEKA)] under acommitted to 247 physical sub-projects, provide support to the Ministry of Local four-year performance basedincluding 166 micro-projects. A total of Government for an accounting system management contract to implement a234 physical sub-projects have been and institutional reform, and will extend service improvement program for thecompleted, including 165 micro-projects. the capacity building component of MIDP Govemorates of Bethlehem and HebronUS$1 million was taken from the Project I to six additional municipalities in WBG in the West Bank; (b) the provision offor the preparation work for Bethlehem including: Jabalia, Khan Younis in Gaza, operating investment funds for the2000. So far, approximately 220 km of Tulkarem, Jericho, Tarqumia, and Al Ram Operator built into the managementroads and about 100 km of water and in the West Bank. This subcomponent contract, to finance essential operationssewage pipelines have been constructed. will provide support to improve and maintenance expenditures notAlso, upgrading of three neighborhood municipal investment and development covered by the revenues collected andareas in Gaza City have been completed. programming. The Ministry of Public which are required to achieve the yearlyAll other components with the Ministry Works, Ministry of Local Government, and performance targets in the managementof Local Government and the five selected the Palestinian Water Authority will contract; (c) the provision of funds (bymunicipalities for capacity building are implement this Project. FIB) to finance design, implementationcurrently active. A contract for a unified * Gaza Water and Sanitation Se aices and supervision of capital improvementsaccounting system for 13 municipalities ProGect (GWSSP). (US$25 million credit such as system rehabilitation andhas already been signed and the software f t .B improvement of water supply services,delivered. Preparation for implementing t W a ' million in bulk transmission mains, distributionthis system is under way. Three-year parallel financing from FIB '/FU.) The systems restructuring and rehabilitation,

invetmen plns hve ben ompltedProject consists of: (a) the provision o ytm etutrn n eaiiaininvetmet pans avebee comletd a intrnaionl Opratr [yonnisedesas well as an investment in rural water

for Hebron municipality, andc for Gaza an international Operator [Lyonnaise des supply; and (d) the provision of technicalmunicipality, are under the awarding Faux, Khatib & Alami (LEKA)] undoera assistance to support strengthening thestage for Rafah municipality, and under i eou ma agement contra °t institutional capacity of PWA and WSSA,RFP preparation for Jenin and Nablus implement a service Improvement to support implementation andmunicipalities. Diagnostic studies in progam; (b) the pnrovison of operatig monitoring of the Project, and provideRafah municipality and in Jenin investment funds for the Operator built independent auditors to monitor themunicipality have been completed. into the management contract, essentialRestructuring and strengthening a to fund goods, equipment, works and performance. The implementing agencyCapacity Building Unit (CBU) within the services requirec for improvig services, is the PWA. It is still too early to reportMinistry of Local Government is under and attainment of performance targets; on the Operator's achievements.tendering. A revenue management and (c) the provision of technlcal However, unaudited data indicate that

assistance to strengthen the Palestinian there is progress. As an example, around

November 2000 12

400 unregistered connections were from the World Bank and US$0.3 million meet service obligations on time anddetected in Bethlehem. Many surveys from the Netherlands.) The PEPP in full. He is also responsible forand procedures are being implemented supports the recruitment of expatriate identifying the Department's staffto identify and correct weakness in the Palestinians to key management and training needs and strengthening itsexisting water and wastewater systems. senior technical positions in PA capability through training andDisbursements as of June 30, 2000 are institutions as an institution-building introduction of new techniques andapproximately US$2.6 million, while total measure. Since beginning in late 1997, technology in recording, processing,commitments are around US$5.1 million, 16 persons have been successfully and reporting accounting information.representing 24% of the total credit recruited for positions at 10 ministries and Finally, he is responsible for analyzingamount. Commitments, however, are agencies of the Palestinian Authority, and recommending alternativeexpected to pick up significantly over the including: the Ministries of Agriculture, proposals for external loans andnext few months, with disbursements Education, Finance, Health, Higher guarantees.following suit, as the Operator is Education, Housing, the Palestinescheduled to let out US$5.0 million vworth Broadcasting Corporation, Palestine Dr. Mohammad Absy is a Palestinianof contracts to be financed from the Monetary Authority, State Information expatriate from France who has beencredit. Service. and the Bethlehem 2000 working at the Ministry of Health since

Committee. Qualified persons have been April 2000, under the auspices of the* Tbe Second Community Development identified for numerous other positions PEPP ProgramnDr. Absy is presently theProject (CDP II). The success of the first but recruitment has not been Nephrologist (kidney specialist) at theCDP has resulted in the PA requesting a consummated. Current political Alia Hospital in Hebron. Hisfollow-up project. The CDP II is funded developments are seriously affecting the responsibilities include: (a) conductingthrough the World Bank (US$8 million), capability of current participants in the a needs assessment at the hospital, (b)OPEC Fund (US$8 million), and EIB program to continue their work upgrading the structure and function(EUROIO million) and has been under effectively and have caused others to of the existing five kidney dialysisimplementation since June 1999. Over 65 defer starting work until conditions centers in Gaza and the West Bank;projects, focusing on infrastructure become stable and the future outlook (c) assisting in developing two kidneyrehabilitation in small villages and clearer. dialysis centers for children; (d)municipalities, are under various stages training and continuing medicalof implementation. The menu of projects PEP Prjc xaraePoie education for nephrology in Palestine;includes rehabilitation of: roads, clinics, (e) developing local capacity toschools, water supplies, and sanitation Mr. Farouk El-'Asali is a Palestinian prepare patients for kidney transplants,networks. In addition, the new Project expatriate from Austria who has been including development of a post-pays special attention to targeting the working at the Ministry of Finance operative follow-up system for patientspoor and marginalized communities, since December 1999, under the with kidney transplants; (f assistingincluding funding projects in refugee auspices of the Palestinian Expatriate in developing an effective system forcamps within West Bank and Gaza. Most Professional Program (PEPP).Mr. 'Asali medical records in nephrology and; (g)of the funds financed through the World is presently the Manager for the Debt assisting in developing a mnodemBank and OPEC Funds have been Management Department at the library for nephrology services incommitted. A mid-term review of the Ministry of Finance in Gaza. In this Palestine.Project is expected to be undertaken in position, he is responsible forJanuary 2001. designing, building, and managing a

* Legl Deelopent rojet (IP~).system to record and monitor all U Palestinian N1G0 Project. (US$10(U mllon met World Bank, liabilities undertaken by ministries and million grant from the World Bank andpaallfnacn fUS$1. million for heWrd ak agencies of the PA in connection with US$4.5 million in co-financing by, Saudi

paralelfinncin ofUS$ milionfordonor-financed projects. His major Arabia and Italy.) Managed by the Projectlegislative drafting from the United accountabilities are to establish a Mngmn raiain(M)Kingdom.) The Project is a start to a long- systematic procedurelt-obtaincurrent Welfare Association Consuterm process of assisting the PA to yteaiprcdrtooticurn WlfeAscainCnotummodernize and harmonize existing inputs and continuous updates from The Project consists of 105 sub-projectslegislation, to give rise to a legal all PA mninistries and agencies implemented under the Developmentframework adequate to support a modem concerning these liabilities and Grant Scheme (Cycles 1, 2, and 3). 88.2%market economy, and to encourage the contracts, and to ensure the design of of the allocated funding for the first twogrowth of the private sector. The Project a computer-based system to identify, cycles has been disbursed. 26 of the 39also supports the training of judges and record, and monitor all local and sub-projects financed under Cycle 1 ofcourt personnel in order to increase the foreign liabilities which have been the Development Grant Scheme hasefficiency and transparency of the judicial agreed between any ministry or agency successfully been completed (96.4% ofprocess. The Project is well underway. of the PA and private sector, or official cvcle allocation disbursed). In July 2000,As part of the overall program of legal lenders and donors. In addition, he 31 grants were awarded under Cycle 3development in WBG, construction of monitors the Government's debt of the Development Grant Scheme for atwo courthouses is planned--one each in service obligations, reviews the total value of US$2.2 million; of whichthe West Bank and in Gaza, to be funded balance and status of various funds/ 21% has been disbursed to date. The firstby the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. accounts, and works with the Central cycle of the Block Grants is progressing

Budget, Accounting and Treasury well with seven Block Grants Mvanagers* Palestinian Expatriate Professional Departments in the MoF to ensure that awarding US$3.5 million in the form ofProgram (PEPP). (US$3 million credit there are sufficient funds available to grants to small community-based

November 2000 13

organizations for a maximum value of under MIGA's Cooperative Underwriting are mainly due to the substitution effectUS$25,000 (40% of cycle allocation Program. During FY99, on behalf of the of other donors (as noted above). It isdisbursed). Two additional Research Trust Fund, MIGA issued its first Contract expected that these balances will be fullyGrants will be awarded next month, one of Guarantee (US$5 million) in the West committed by November 2000 and thatto assess the effectiveness of the Block Bank Gaza to Phoenix International all works will be completed by MarchGrant Scheme in reaching the poor and Limited of the United Kingdom. The 2001; (2) Water: the components here (allmarginalized, and the other to identify project involved the establishment of a IDA) are 100% complete; (3) Culturalthe scope and quality of NGO capacity cultural center for tourists and business Heritage: three of the four sub-projectsbuilding programs in the West Bank and visitors. In addition, since the inception are completed. The fourth has beenGaza, as well as existing needs. The latter of the Fund, nearly 20 applications have delayed pending a clarification of thestudy is commissioned in preparation of been received for almost US$400 million availability of Austrian co-financing.the Project's, second phase (see below). in investments in WBG's infrastructure, New B2000 Business Plan. A revisedIn late October 2000, the level of manufacturing, real estate, services, and Business Plan has been prepared. Thisdisbursement for all cycles combined tourism sectors. revised Plan provides the basis for thereached U,S$6.3 million or 58% of thereidPlnpodsthbasfrtereached1 US.68 3 million cormmitte the * Bethlehem 2000 Project (B2000). B2000 Project Authority's work for theUS$10.8 million committed to [US$25 million credit from the remainder of the project.Development and Block Gr-ants under the International Development Association MncplCpct ulig feProject. (IA S1mlinpefAScain Municipal Capacity Building: AfterProject. ~~~~~(IDA), US$1 million grant from Norwaysoedlyprgssinwbigma.

In view of the success of the current and US$2 million grant from Italy]. The some delay progress isnowbeig madeProject, the continued need for NGO IDA Fund is 66% committed and 66% An implementation workshop was heldsupport to the disenfranchised, and the disbursed; the Norwegian Fund is 1000/0 In August 2000. Dscusslons are nowopportunities for enhancing the conmmitted and 88% disbursed; and the ongoilng tith Bethlehem areacontribution of Palestinian NGOs through Italian Fund is 100% committed and 82% municipalities to help them establish theadditional technical support and disbursed. The Bethlehem 2000 Project dneceslsary thworkhng groups in ortder tofinancing, the Bank decided to carnv out Authority, the Ministry of Local eveop te ree-year nvestmenta second phase of the NGO Project. It is Govemment, the Ministry of Tourism and program.expected that the Bank will continue to Antiquities, and the Ministry of Culture Cultural Heritage Reform: Littlefinance the Project up to US$7 million, are implementing this Project. progress has been made, mainly due towhile an additional US$10 million will Celebrations S. port The B2000 weaknesses at the Ministries of Tourismbe sought in the form of co-financing. Project AuthoritvwPas effectively and Culture which have joint

ureparatyons for PNGO are already consolidated under the leadership of Dr responsibility for implementation. An

prsntedwaton the Broardt byhAprld 2001 Nabil Kassis and has performed very well. implementation workshop was held inpresented to the Board by April201 However, the sponsorship, marketin August 2000. At this workshop, it wasBuilding on the service delivery lessons aid p st g, agreed that one ministry should take theleamed under the current Project, Phase efnfdectrivealtye setdeandtment wmeureh newvaesr lead and that managerial assistance wouldII will place greater emphasis on civel se D t h be sought from UNSCO.strengthening NGO capacity and the achieved here. Despite the above b ogtfo NSOprofessional credentials of the sector by celebrations were effectively mounted. * Electric Sector Investment andproviding opportunities for voluntary And while these fell short of potential Management Project (ESIMP3. (US$15proessional association within thesector and initial plans as noted above, they million from the World Bank, US$38and with th PA. were successful. In retrospect it seems million from EIB, US$35 million from

possible that initial expectations were too Italy, and US$3 million financed by* MIGA Investment Guarantee Fund. high, and that in the circumstances the beneficiaries.) The objectives of this(US$10 million from the PA through a achievements have been very substantial US$91 million project are to rehabilitatecredit from the World Bank and US$11 and, hopefully, larger lasting and more the power distribution systems in themillion from EIB and Japan.) This Fund, sustainable. Efforts are now underway central and southem West Bank and towhich is administered by MIGA, provides to consolidate these achievements by: (1) address the institutional structure forguarantees in the form of insurance institutionalizing key elements of the longer-term sector management. Theagainst political risk for private events program on an annual basis; (2) Executive Directors of the World Bankinvestments in WBG. Under the terms mobilizing the private sector to approved the Project on August 31, 1999of the Fund, investors who are nationals consolidate and build on the and the Trust Fund Credit Agreementof, or companies incorporated in, a MIGA improvements that have been made; and (TFCA) signed at the time of the Bank/member country, or who are Palestinian (3) embarking on a realistic marketing IMF Annual Meetings. A full-fledgedresidents of WBG, are eligible to obtain program in coordination with the Ministry supervision mission took place in Julyguarantees, provided that investment is of Tourism. 2000. A technical assistance package forbrought in from outside WBG. The Fund infrastr^cture Works: (1) Roads the JDECO, the electricity distribution

currently has the capacity to issue planned IDA components are now 100% company serving the central West Bank,guarantees for up to US$5 miillion per ccmplete. The Artas Road co-financed has been procured under International

insurance capacit , when requested by with Italy is complete. The Shepherds Competitive Bidding procedures.insurance capacity,whenrequestoedby Field Road co-financed by Norway is U Solid Waste and Environmentalthe project sponsor(s), iIGA will explore complete, with some landscaping work ManagementProject(SWEMP). (US$9.5the possibility of obtaining reinsurance to be undertaken from a small remaining million from IDA; US$3.25 million grant

underwriters, including coinsurance balance. The IDA balances remaining from the EU; US$1.25 million is

November 2000 14

anticipated from the PA.) The proposed Commitments and Disbursements'USS14 million Project's objective is tofinance interventions in solid waste DisbursementsUnderWordBankProjects (inUS$million)-AsofOctoberl7,2000collection, transfer, and disposal of waste Current Allocated Amounts Disbursed Totalfor the district of Jenin. The Project will Project TFGWG Joint TFGWG Joint Disbursedalso assist in institutional-building within EHRP 20.00 29.10 20.00 16.86 36.86the Ministry of Environmental Affairs(MIENA). The Project feasibility studies MIDP 40.00 5.41 35.00 2.92 37.92and conceptual design for the solid waste GAZA WAERcomponent have been completed. & SANITATION 25.00 0.00 23.48 0.00 23.48

MICROENT. 5.00 0.00 2.26 0.00 2.26In addition to activities in the Jenin HOUSING 25.00 0.00 0.70 0.00 0.70District, the European Investment BankHOSN250 0 070. 00(FIB) is keen to finance solid waste LEGAL 5.50 15.00 2.11 0.00 2.11

management interventions, including PEPP 3.00 0.32 1.01 0.32 1.33construction of a landfill in the Hebron NGO 10.00 4.60 7.28 2.74 10.02District. The World Bank is working in GIE 10.00 0.00 2.69 0.00 2.69partnership with the European BETH. 2000 25.00 2.91 19.47 2.62 22.09Investment Bank, the European Union, CDPII 8.00 0.00 4,39 0.00 4.39and the Italian Cooperation in assisting SAWSIP 21.00 0.00 3.45 0.00 3.45

the Palestinian Authority prepare the ES7iP 15.00 0.00 2.85Project. The proposed Bank-financed HEALTH 15.00 0.00 2.85 0.00 0.41Project for the Jenin District has been HEALTH 7.90 0.00 0.41 0.00approved by the Board of the NWorld Bank MIDP II 7.50 5.00 0.00 0.00 0.00and signed on October 10, 2000. Capacity SOLID WASTE 9.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00building activities as part of project COMPLEED PROJECTSpreparation is already under ERPI 30.00 71.24 30.00 71.24 93.48implementation and is being funded MIGA Fund 10.00 0.00 10.00 0.00 10.00through a multi-donor TATF managed ERPII 20.00 3.57 20.00 3.86 23.53jointly by PECDAR and the World Bank. CDPI 10.00 2.81 10.00 2.73 12.73The Hebron Project is expected to be TOPI 307.0 213 10.10 129 12730appraised. TOTAL 307.40 139.95 195.10 103.29 290.30

Multi-Donor Trust FundsFunds Admiiistrated Donor TotalBy the World Bank Allocation Disbursed

World Bank Completed Projects HOLST FUND 262.52 262.47Emnergencv Rehabilitation Project TATF 22.77 20.84

(ERP D). (US$30 million from the World TOTAL 285.29 283.31Bank and US$63.5 million in co-financing US$3 million of the Saudi funds for the Legal Development Project are to date unallocated.by Saudi Arabia, Denmark, Switzerland, ' These Figures do not include parellel and IFC financing.and Kuwait.) The Project (that wasimplemented by PECDAR) financed atotal of 140 infrastructure projects,resulted in building 418 classrooms,paved 260 km of roads in cities and constructed. An implementation World Bank Projects Undervillages, constructed approximately 410 completion report for the Project has been Preparationkm of water supply pipelines, 80 km of completed. * FinancialInstititnionalDevelopment

sewer lines and stoir water lines, and * Coninun iyv Development Project Project (FIDP). This Project aims to assist(CDP I). This community infrastructure with the development of the legal,

* Secontd Emergenccy Rehabilitatione rehabilitation program was started in institutional, and regulatory frameworkProject (ERPII). (US$20 million from the 1997, and as of June 2000, over 250 for more efficient financial intermediation.World Bank and US$3.5 million in co- infrastructure microprojects have been The Project seeks to expand the pool offinancing bv the Italian Government.) All completed. In addition to the US$10 assets that can be used as collateral,available funding has been committed to million financed by the World Bank, the thereby improving access to credit for77 sub-projects in the road, water, Project has been successful in attracting small- and medium-size businesses. Itwastewater, and school sectors (including co-financing of nearly US$13 million. The would also support measures to42 labor-intensive microprojects). All sub- Canadian and World Bank-financed modernize and expand land survey andprojects have been completed. The components have been completed and registration, particularly in central urbanProject, closed on June 30, 1999, was the Project has been closed. The OPEC- areas where property values are high.implemented through PECDAR in funded projects are expected to be closed Banks operating in WBG and the PMAcoordination with the municipalities in by the end of the calendar year. have pledged nearly US$1.5 million inthe West Bank and Gaza. Approximately equity in the Banking Sector Services123 km of roads and about 110 km of Company to provide electronic bankingwater and sewage pipelines have been

November 2000 15

services. Negotiations and presentation treatment plants. Soft loans and grants Housing Corporation (PMHC) which isof the project to the World Bank's Board from EIB, USAID, and KFW will finance designed to facilitate the flow of privateof Executive Directors is stalled waiting these investments, totaling about US$340 capital into the housing sector in WBG.for a return to peaceful conditions in the million for 2000-2005. The World Bank loan was declaredWBG. Presentation to the World Bank's * E A Pj. effective in March 1998 after which,Board of Executive Directors is likely to illiducationf IDA) ThPrjecltiUS$7 private investors, including IFC, decidedbe delayed from November 2000. Ministryo EDuAt he reqestei to provide equity to PMHC. PMHC will

Ministrv of Education has requestedOprtthogtw afiaeste* Institutional Development Project project support to reinforce the work oLuperate through two affiliates, the(IDP). The proposed Project will be already undertaken in the development funds for lending by banks and otherdemand-driven and will provide a flexible of a Five Year Plan and the development primary mortgage lenders in WBG, andinstrument to respond to a variety of of a long term education strategy. Over the Mortgage Insurance Fund (MIF)different PA ministry/agency capacity- the next three years the Project will tg.Ibuilding needs. Its underlying objective support planning for, and the lenders Cpanada Mskcoverage forupsnmaryis to further the development of a implementation of, five year plan Corporation is the technical partner fortransparent, efficient, and lean public activities. The Project has two thePMHCand haspreparedthe businesssector by reducing transaction costs and complementary components, plus Plan ase as muchaof the oeainalcreating a regulatory environment that is support for the Project Management Unit. documentation Final instpitutionalconducive to private sector development. The first component provides support to documentare unal indtPMHC

strteges hatasistpolcy akig,arrangements are underway and PMHCThe Project is on hold until such time as strategies that assist policy making, is expected to commence operationsthe discussion on the Public Management planning, and budgeting across ministry shortly. The borrower has also requestedReview and Comprehensive departments;, the second supports that a portion of the Bank loan be appliedDevelopment Framework (CDF) has been specific investments in education. The thathe porting theisank Fund whiedcompleted with the PA, at which point Project is designed to complement efforts to the Housing Assistance Fund whichthe scope of the Project will be finalized being made by the Ministry and the assistance to low- and moderate-incomein consultation with the PA. Preparation Donor Community to make the best use hwork is not expected to start until late of available funding for the education residence. Restructuring of the Project to2000. sector. accommodate this request is presently* Gaza Water and Sanitation Services Activities in component one include: (a) being processed. Another component ofProject (GWSSPII). (US$25 million from computerizing the financial management the Project, the Institutional and Policythe World Bank). It is a follow-up to the system; (b) further developing an EMIS Development Program, addresses issuesongoing GWSSP, which is currently system; (c) a vertical extension to the related to the functions and structure ofscheduled to close on December 31, 2000. MOE building to rationalize space; and the Ministry of Housing, in addition to itsThe development objectives of this (c) technical assistance and training to technical, administrative, and managerialProject are: (a) to develop a sustainable support the above activities. Other capabilities.institutional structure of the water and investments include: (a) a program to * Gaza Industrial Estate (GIF). [US$10wastewater sector in the Gaza Strip by provide school- based grants to be used million from the World Bank for off-sitesupporting the functional establishment for training and management infrastructure and public institutionalof a Coastal Municipalities Water Utility development; (b) studies to develop development, US$9 million in equity(C\MWU) under the ownership of the local standards for head-teachers, and design (USS1 million) and loans (US$8 million),governments representing those a prototype credential for head-teachers; and up to US$7 million in syndicatedcommunities, as well as by enhancing and (c) the development of pilot secondary loans from IFC to the developer/operatordeepening the involvement of the private vocational curriculum and the EIB and USAID parallel financing, andsector through a competitively bid construction of additions to existing the PA long-term lease on the landoperating contract, and strengthening the general secondary schools to increase amount to a further US$65.5 million.] Theregulatory and institutional capacity of the opportunities for both boys and girls m GIE, on a n0 hectare site at Al-Muntar inPalestinian Water Authority (PWA); and a combined general/vocational education the northeast of Gaza (adjacent to the(b) to continue improving the water and system. Israeli border), is the first largely export-sanitation services by rehabilitation, The Project will be carried out by the oriented industrial estate, established toupgradi and exPansi of the e istng Ministry of Education over three years generate sustainable employment andsYstems and facilities. This Prolect is (2001-2004). Following negotiations, it stimulate industrial development in Gaza.runesteay for pre-q puaiation for is anticipated that the Pproject will The Project is expected to attract foreignprospective international operators has become effective in early 2001. and local investment, and to facilitate jointprospenlaunctived intnan l operatorse hs ventures between Palestinians and others.been launched and will close on The GIE is managed and operated byDecember 17, 2000. Like the GWSSP, Palestine Industrial Estate Developmentthis Project is part of a larger parallelPaetnIdurilEaeDvlomtcapital Prograi pto irove wlater pandllel world Bank and IFC Joint Projects and Management Company (PIEDCO), acapital program to improve water and private sector company. Regulatorysanitation services in the Gaza Strip. The * Housing Project (US$25 million oversightp as well as offsite infrastructureprogram includes substantial investments credit from the World Bank, up to US$19 is provided by the Palestinian Industriauin the establishment of a bulk water million in equity and loans from IFC.) Estate andFree Zone Authorityn(PIEFZA)lsupply network connecting the various The largest component of this Project The GIE is being developed in threemunicipalities in the Gaza Strip, in the supports the creation and initial phases PhaseIIconstructioniscurrentlysewerage network, and in wastewater operations of the Palestine Mortgage and p

NVovember 2000 16

well underway, which should double IFC Projectsthe industrial sites available for lease at IFthe GIE by the end of the year 2000. CPortfolioSome 34 firms have leased space at the Including the joint-projects aboveGIE to date, filling all space made under the Mainstream Program,available under Phase I; of these, about eight projects, worth US$75.78 million,30 firms are now operating. About have been approved to date. Under the1,200 people are currently employed Extended Reach Initiative, whichat the GIE, with a further 200 or so supports projects in the US$0.25-5occasional workers. More information million range, IFC has met strongon firms operating at the GIE can be demand for long term loans from smallfound at "www.piedco.com" . private sector enterprises since the

* Microeuzterprise Project. (US$5 program began in WBG MIarch 1997.million from the World Bank; US$7.5 To date, seven projects have beenmillion credit from each, the IFC and approved under Extended Reach, forthe participating banks; US$3 million US$7.42 million (total project cost worthfrom the Netherlands). The Project US$32.40 million). Of this amount,initiated a program to finance US$7.42 is committed and US$4.92microenterprises in WBG through the million is disbursed.banking system in order to: (a) promote See previous issue for details on IFCemployment through private sector Projects, and the Bank Group Newsdevelopment; (b) achieve commercial section for the Summary on theviability and sustainability for Status of IFC Portfolio Projects inmicroenterprise lending: and (c) build West Bank & Gaza.capacity in both the participating banksand the microenterprises by providingtechnical assistance. As of June 30,2000, over 847 projects forapproximately US$9.6 million wereapproved, of which 795 projects forapproximately US$9.0 million weredisbursed. The disbursed loans createdover 1,300 new full- and part-time jobs.In November 1999, IFC secured anextension for one year from the DutchTrust Fund for technical assistance tothe three participating banks. Theextension will enable the residentadvisors to train the banks' staff inportfolio supervision and defaultprocedures, and gradually relinquishresponsibilities to their localcounterparts.

November 2000 17

BANK GROUP NEWS New Projects STAFF NEWS

* Workshops for the Second * The Proposed Integrated * KanthanShankarReturnstolHQ.Municipal Infrastructure Develop- Conmnunity Development Project. Mr. Shankar has been working in thement Project. (Proposed budget: US$10 million from WBG office since April 1996. As a TaskOn July 29th, 2000 a Workshop was held the World Bank and co-financing by Manager, he was responsible for thefor the Second Municipal Infrastructure other donors.) management of the Holst Fund, theDevelopment Project (MIDP 2) at the The overall project objective is to Community Development Projects I andWorld Bank office in the West Bank. implement an integrated community II, and the Solid Waste andThis Workshop addressed the issues of development project in poor and Fnvironmental Management Project.municipal reform and capacity building, marginalized areas of the West Bank and After four years working on projectsand was attended by mayors, engineers, Gaza. This objective would be pursued directed towards rehabilitation andand financial managers from the through identification of target areas, development of Palestinian towns andselected municipalities under MIDP 1, and the development and villages, Mr. Shankar returned to HQ inMIDP 2, and Bethlehem 2000. implementation of a multi-sectoral Washington, DC where he continues to

program which would include technical manage these projects and works onOn July 31st, 2000 a Workshop was held assistance. The Project will include the the formulation of a new project entitledat the World Bank office in the NWest following proposed components: "Integrated Community DevelopmentBank to officially launch the Second (a) community infrastructure upgrading; Project for WBG".Infrastructure Development Project (b) natural resources management(MIDP 2). The Workshop addressed the including agricultural components; (c) ILFC NEWSmain objectives of the Project, the roles technical assistance to local govemmentand responsibilities of participating units in integrated development Since September 29, 2000, theagencies, and re-emphasized the need planning; and (d) introduction of Palestinian cities and towns in Westto work toward meeting the conditions information technology in communities Bank and Gaza (WBG) have beenof effectiveness of the Project. through provision of community centers placed under a strict Israeli militaryWorkshop participants included: the with hardware and software facilities. closure, which has restricted theMinister of Local Government and mobility of people and goods to anddeputies; the deputy Minister of Public * Education Action Project from, as well as within WBG. At theWorks and senior members of the (See details under Bank Group same time, violent clashes haveMinistry; the Deputy Head of the Operations/World Bank Projects Under occurred and are continuing aroundPalestinian Water Authority; and the Preparation; p. 15). Palestinian cities, towns and villages.Mayors of the selected municipalities This situation has severely impactedfor the Project. * Projects Related Documents private sector development and, while

Available at the World Bank Public most companies are open, actual* Implementation Workshops. Information Center. business activity is either very slow orThe Bank organized several (a) The Project Information Report is on hold. IFC projects were impacted,Implementation Workshops in August provides a brief factual summary of the but it remains difficult to quantify the2000 on Municipal Capacity Building main elements of the evolving project: magnitude of the impact.and Municipal Finance. In addition, objectives, expected components, costsseveral follow-up meetings took place. and financing, environmental and other In one industrial project located in theDuring the workshops and meetings, issues as appropriate, procurement West Bank city of Nablus, productiondiscussions were held with Palestinian arrangements, studies to be undertaken was cut to 10% of normal levelscounterparts, the Ministry of Local and the implementing agency. because: (i) it was difficult to transportGovemment, the Ministry of Finance, (b) The Staff/Project Appraisal Report raw materials to the company's facilities-and with the Bethlehem Area will also be publicly available after (ii) its employees, who live outside theMunicipalities on the future steps and Board approval. The SAR describes the city, were unable to reach their workactions necessary to activate these project, analyzes its merits from several stations or were injured in the clashes;components and to proceed with their different points of view, and determines (iii) its facilities and equipment wereimplementation. its suitability for Bank financing and, if damaged due to their proximity to

so, on what conditions. The Bank looks confrontation areas; and (iv) theIn August 2000, under the Bethlehem at each project in the framework of the company was short of cash due to non-2000 Project, the Bank organized an whole economy and of the sector in payment by its clients.Implementation Workshop on Cultural which the project would form a part. In tourism, projects in WBG areHeritage Reform. During the Workshop, Thus, the appraisal assesses how experiencing total paralysis. One IFCdiscussions with the Ministry of Tourism effectively the project would contribute projec. is completely closed, while theand Culture took place regarding the to the achievement of the country's other is operating with minimumimplementation arrangement and the development objectives. staffing. With no income coming in,future steps necessary to be taken to tourism companies are reducing theirexpedite implementation of the overhead costs by slashing salaries bycomponent. up to 50% and giving unpaid leave to

.November 2000 18

non-essential staff. contains three volumes. for regional and income groups. ThisIn the financial sector, banks have either Governments need accurate, current, year's report includes the external debtstopped their lending operations or and relevant data from household obligations of the Republic of Korea, areduced them considerably and are surveys to make sound economic and high-income country. Charts on pagesclosely monitoring their portfolios. IFC's policy decisions. Analysts need the data ix to xi summarize graphically thefinancial markets projects with to model economic behavior, which can relation between debt stock and itsPalestinian commercial banks are either provide answers to important policy components; the computation of flows,on hold or are being reviewed. questions. aggregate net resource flows, andThe current situation is very unfortunate For many countries, however, the data aggregate net transfers; and the relationand, in part, is dramatic. It is likely to are incomplete, unreliable, or out of between net resource flow and thetake a long time to rebuild the damage date. This handbook was developed to balance of payments. Exact definitionsthat has occurred to the private sector remedy the situation. It is a of these and other terms are found inin WBG. comprehensive treatise on the design the Sources and Definitions section.

of multitopic household surveys inWould you like to get information developing countries. It draws on 15 * World Development Indicatorsby EMail on recent World Bank years of experience from the World 2000. (STATS KN20372 2000)publicationS, please send your EMail Bank's Living Standards Measurement This is the fourth annual edition of theaddress to: Study surveys and other household World Bank's statistical reference. It1 Imkoussa@worldbank.org'. surveys conducted in developing provides an expanded view of the world

countries. The handbook covers key economy for 148 countries withtopics in the design of household chapters focusing on world view,

NEW BANK PUB1CATIONS surveys, with many suggestions for people, environment, economy, statescustomizing surveys to local and markets, and global links, as well

* Trade Policy Developments in circumstances and improving data as introductions highlighting recentthe Middle East and North Africa. quality. research on major development issues.(KT 20322 2000) The book serves several audiences: This edition includes some keyThis book is published by the Bank on survey planners from national statistical indicators for 1999. This edition aimsbehalf of the Mediterranean and planning agencies; universities; to make statistics lively andDevelopment Forum (MDF) partnership think tanks; consulting firms; and comprehensive-to paint a picture of theof 10 Middle East and North Africa international organizations; those world and its people. The numbers inregion (MENA) think tanks, and the working on either multitopic or topic- this edition tell the reader that peopleWorld Bank Institute. specific surveys; and data users; who in most places are living longer, but that

will benefit from understanding the in countries gripped by the HIV/AIDSThe focus of the contributions in this challenges, choices, and tradeoffs in epidemic, life expectancies arebook is on trade and trade policy. data collection. declining. Average incomes continue toContributors review recent trends in rise for most developing countries, buttrade performance, assess current trade * Global Development Finance: some of the poorest have slippedand investment regimes, and discuss 2000. VoLl: Analysis and Summary backwards subjecting millions more tosome of the emerging microeconomic Tables; Vol.2: Country Tables. extreme poverty. It can also be seenpolicy challenges that confront (STATS KN20730 2000) that the developing countries aregovernments and firms seeking to Global Development Finance was becoming more important participantsexpand trade. Topics addressed include: formerly published as World Debt in the global economy. But the picturethe need for and scope of using regional Tables. The new name reflects the is flawed because too often the dataintegration and economic free zones as report's expanded scope and greater are incomplete or unreliable or entirelya tool of development; mobilization coverage of private financial flows. The unavailable. Recognizing the manytax bases to offset revenue losses as report consists of two volumes: flaws in the statistical system and thetariffs are lowered; establishment of (a) Analysis and Summary Tables need to address them directly bymore efficient mechanisms to enforce contains analysis and commentary on improving the capacity of countries toproduct standards to ensure health and recent developments in international produce statistics, a consortium of moresafety of citizens; and implementation finance for developing countries, with than 90 countries and internationalof modem information technologies to particular focus on the global financial organizations has come together andexpedite customs clearance. crisis. Summary statistical tables are pledged to increase the resources for

included for 150 countries; statistical capacity building in* Designing Household Survey (b) Country Tables contains statistical developing countries. Hence, futureQuestionnaires for Developing tables on the extemal debt of the 137 editions of this report may prove evenCountries: Lessons from Fifteen countries that report public and public more useful.Years of Living Standard guaranteed debt under the DebtorMeasurement Study. (STATS KN Reporting System (DRS). Also included * Risks and Reconstruction:20731 2000) are tables of selected debt and resource Experiences of Resellers andA copublication of the World Bank and flow statistics for individual reporting Refugees. (MY 20358 2000)Oxford University Press: 2000. The set countries, as well as summaries tables The magnitude of population

November 2000 19

displacement and its consequences Contact Numbers Gaza Office:have placed the issues of reconstructing Coordinatorthe livelihoods of those displaced on West Bank Office Numbers: Husam Abu Daggathe world's development agenda.Addressing these issues from a novel Administratorperspective, Risks and Reconstruction Samira Hillisoffers a comparative analysis of the two Switchboard 02 - 2366500 Tel. 07-2823422, 07-2824746largest groups of the world's displaced Fax 02 - 2366543 Fax. 07-2824296populations: resettlers being uprootedby development programs and refugees Country Director International Finance Corporationfleeing military conflicts or natural Joseph Saba 02-2366517calamities. The book explores the 02 S22366506condition of being "displaced," the risksof impoverishment and social Country Coordinatordisarticulation, the rights and External Affairs & Aid Tamara Lanskyentitlements of those uprooted, and Coordinationmost importantly, how these groups can Ma'moon Sbeih West Bank and Gaza Updatereconstruct their livelihoods. It uses a 02 - 2366511common set of concepts, derived from edital teamthe impoverishment risks and Economic Department Ma'moon Sbeih - Editorreconstruction model. Sebastien Dessus Sebastien DessusThe purpose of Risks and Sebastien DesAusReconstruction is twofold: first, to 02 - 2366549 Claus Astrupanalyze the risks faced by these Joumana Assopopulations and to disseminate Private Sector Development Mary Koussaproblem-resolution approaches, good Judith Press With special thanks to Mary Sabasafeguarding practices, successful 02 - 2366505reconstruction and developmentexperiences; second, to explore the Infrastructure Development For further information contact:possible synergies between refugee Kingsley Robotham Ma'moon Sbeihresearch and resettlement research and 02 - 2366522 Tel (972) 23646511deepen understanding of these issues. 0262l. (972)w23646511

email: msbeih@Dworldbank.org* A Market-Oriented Strategy for Projects DisbursmentsSmall and Medium Scale Adel OdehEnterprises. (IFf 40 2000) 02 - 2366515 The 'West Bank and Gaza Update'The paper examines the economic can also befound on the Internetrationale for intervention in support of Information Technology atsmall and medium scale enterprises Abdallah Nasr bttp.//uww. worldbank.org(SME), on both theoretical and empirical 02 - 2366527grounds. It argues that the justificationfor SME interventions lies in market, andinstitutional failures that bias the size Mission Coordinationdistribution of firms, rather than on any Fifi Antarinherent economic benefits provided by 02 - 2366507small firms. The role of the state ismainly to provide an enabling business Accountingenvironment that opens access to Samira Hemsimarkets, and reduces policy-induced 02 - 2366503biases against small firms. Govemmentscan accelerate the development of Public Information Centermarkets for financial, and non-financialservices suited to SMEs by promoting Mary Koussainnovation in products, and delivery 02 - 2366529mechanisms, and, by buildinginstitutional capacity. Improving thedevelopment impact of SME strategieswill require much more attention to themonitoring and evaluation ofintervention outcomes.

November 2000 20

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