wrslf 43 ulvn dqg uhwxuqweb.mit.edu/15.415d/www/lecture10.pdfg1jurpe24817482idoo4
TRANSCRIPT
G1Jurpe24817482Idoo4<<;2Wrslf43 4
Wrslf 43
ULVN DQG UHWXUQ
URDGPDS
Sduw 3, SUHVHQW YDOXH
Dlp= Jlyhq h{shfwhg fdvk rzv dqg glvfrxqw udwhv/ �qg SY
Sduw L, YDOXLQJ VHFXULWLHV
Dlp= Jlyhq h{shfwhg fdvk rzv dqg glvfrxqw udwhv/ sulfh vshfl�f vhfxulwlhv
Sduw LL, WKH SULFLQJ RI ULVN
Dlp= Ghwhuplqlqj wkh ulvn0dgmxvwhg glvfrxqw udwh
� Wrslf 43= Ulvn dqg Uhwxuq
� Wrslf 44= Rswlpdo Sruwirolr Wkhru|
� Wrslf 45= FDSP
� Wrslf 46= DSW
� Wrslf 47= H!flhqw Pdunhwv
Sduw LLL, FRUSRUDWH ILQDQFH
Dlp= Vwxg| wkh ydoxh lpsolfdwlrqv ri �qdqfldo ghflvlrqv e| �upv
G1Jurpe24817482Idoo4<<;2Wrslf43 5
RYHUYLHZ
� Uhylhz ri Suredelolw| dqg Vwdwlvwlfv
�Phdvxulqj Ulvn� Ulvn dqg Krul}rq� Hvwlpdwlqj Uhwxuq dqg Ulvn� Ulvn dqg Uhwxuq 0 D Klvwrulfdo Shuvshfwlyh
G1Jurpe24817482Idoo4<<;2Wrslf43 6
DVVHW UHWXUQV
Wkh +udwh ri, uhwxuq ryhu �rqh shulrg� rq d ulvn|dvvhw lv d udqgrp yduldeoh=
�o '�(� n ���
�f
� �
zkhuh
� �f lv wkh fxuuhqw sulfh +nqrzq,
� ��� lv wkh sulfh dw shulrg0hqg +xqfhuwdlq,
� �(� lv wkh glylghqg dw shulrg0hqg +xqfhuwdlq,
Wklv udqgrp yduldeoh lv fkdudfwhul}hg e|=
� Wkh ydoxhv wkdw wkh uhdol}hg uhwxuq fdq wdnh� Wkh suredelolw| ri hdfk ydoxh ehlqj uhdol}hg
H{dpsoh= Uhwxuqv rq wkh V)S 833 lqgh{ dqg wkhvwrfn ri PdvvDlu/ d uhjlrqdo dluolqh frpsdq|
Vwdwh 4 5 6Suredelolw| f�2 f�S f�2Uhwxuq rq V)S 833 �DI �fI 2fIUhwxuq rq PdvvDlu ��fI �fI efI
G1Jurpe24817482Idoo4<<;2Wrslf43 7
ZKHUH ZH VWDQG
Wkh h{shfwhg udwh ri uhwxuq lv +e| gh�qlwlrq$, wkhudwh dw zklfk wkh dvvhw*v h{shfwhg fdvk rzv duhglvfrxqwhg=
.d�oo � 7o '.fd �(� n ���o
�f
� �
, �f '.fd �(� n ���o
� n 7o
Dq dvvhw*v h{shfwhg udwh ri uhwxuq fdq eh ghfrp0srvhg dv=
7o ' os n Z
zkhuh
� Wkh ulvn0iuhh udwh os frpshqvdwhv lqyhvwruv iruwkh wlph ydoxh ri prqh|
� Wkh ulvn suhplxp Z frpshqvdwhv wkhp iru ulvn
Txhvwlrq
Gr |rx wklqn zh fdq kdyh Z : fB
Gr |rx wklqn zh fdq kdyh Z fB
G1Jurpe24817482Idoo4<<;2Wrslf43 8
DVVHW UHWXUQV DUH ULVN\$
G1Jurpe24817482Idoo4<<;2Wrslf43 9
WKH LVVXHV
Vr idu lq wkh frxuvh/ zh kdyh vdlg wkdw=
� Fdvk rzv zlwk wkh �vdph ulvn� vkrxog eh glv0frxqwhg xvlqj wkh vdph udwh
� Fdvk rzv zlwk �gl�huhqw ulvn� vkrxog eh glv0frxqwhg xvlqj d sulrul gl�huhqw udwhv
� �Pruh ulvn| fdvk rzv� vkrxog eh glvfrxqwhg xv0lqj d kljkhu udwh
Wklv lv �qh exw=
� Gh�qlwlrq lvvxh=�Zkdw grhv �pruh ulvn|� phdqB� Krz gr zh phdvxuh ulvnB
� Sulflqj lvvxh=� Krz grhv �pruh ulvn|� wudqvodwh lqwr �kljkhuglvfrxqw udwh�B
� Krz lv ulvn sulfhgB
G1Jurpe24817482Idoo4<<;2Wrslf43 :
H[SHFWHG UHWXUQ RQ DQ DVVHW
Wkh uhwxuq ri d ulvn| dvvhw lv d udqgrp yduldeoh �o
Vwdwh � 2 � � � � ?Sured+Vwdwh, R� R2 R� � � � R?Uhdol}hg Uhwxuq o
�o2o�� � � o?
zkhuh S?�'�
R� ' �
H{shfwhg Uhwxuq=
.d�oo � 7o '?[
�'�
R� � o�
H{shfwhg Uhwxuq rq d Sruwirolr ri Dvvhwv=
Frqvlghu d sruwirolr ri � dvvhwv � ' �c ���c�
Dw | ' f/ wkh zhljkw �� ri dvvhw � lq wkh sruwirolr lvlwv frqwulexwlrq wr wkh sruwirolr*v ydoxh
�� '
Ydoxh ri |rxu kroglqj ri dvvhw �Ydoxh ri |rxu sruwirolr
Wkh h{shfwhg uhwxuq rq |rxu sruwirolr lv=
.d�oRo '
�[
�'�
�� � 7o� zkhuh�[
�'�
�� ' �
Qrwh= � f li |rx vkruw wkh dvvhw
G1Jurpe24817482Idoo4<<;2Wrslf43 ;
Surri=
Lw lv idluo| lqwxlwlyh wkdw wkh uhwxuq rq d sruwirolr ri dvvhwv lv wkh zhljkwhg dyhudjh ri wkh
uhwxuq rq wkh dvvhwv lq wkh sruwirolr1 Li |rx zrxog olnh frq�updwlrq ri wklv/ khuh lv d irupdo
surri1
Frqvlghu d sruwirolr zlwk v� vkduhv ri dvvhw l @ 4> ===>Q
Qrwdwlrq=
� Sulfh ri rqh vkduh ri dvvhw l dw w @ 3= S
�
f
� Sulfh ri rqh vkduh ri dvvhw l dw w @ 4= S
�
�
� Glylghqg ri rqh vkduh ri dvvhw l dw w @ 4= G
�
�
Wkh ydoxh ri |rxu sruwirolr dw w @ 3 lv=
�[�'�
�v� � S
�
f
�
Wkh zhljkw ri dvvhw l lv wkxv=
v� � S�
fS�
�'�v�S
�
f
Wkh h{shfwhg uhwxuq ri sruwirolr ehwzhhq w @ 3 dqg w @ 4 lv=
H^�uR` @
H{shfwhg Ydoxh ri Sruwirolr dw w @ 4
Ydoxh ri Sruwirolr dw w @ 3
� 4
@
S�
�'�v� �Hf
^G
�
�
. S
�
�
`S�
�'�v�S
�
f
@
�[�'�
#v� � S
�
fS�
�'�v�S
�
f
�
H
f^G
�
�
.S
�
�
`
S
�
f
$
@
�[�'�
z� � �u�
G1Jurpe24817482Idoo4<<;2Wrslf43 <
H[DPSOH +4,
� \rx lqyhvw mDc fff lq DEF dqg m�fc fff lq [\]
� Wkh h{shfwhg uhwxuqv duh
7o��� ' .I dqg 7oft ~ ' �2I
� Wkh zhljkwv duh wkxv���� '
Dc fff
�Dc fff'
�
�
dqg
�ft ~ '2
�
� Wkh h{shfwhg uhwxuq rq |rxu sruwirolr lv7oR '
�
�� .I n
2
�� �2I
' �f���I
G1Jurpe24817482Idoo4<<;2Wrslf43 43
H[DPSOH +5,
� \rx duh kroglqj d sruwirolr zlwk=� �c fff vkduhv ri dvvhw D2c fff vkduhv ri dvvhw E
� Wkh h{shfwhg uhwxuqv duho� ' .I dqg o� ' �2I
� Wkh fxuuhqw vkduh sulfhv duh��
f' mDf dqg ��
f' m�ff
� Wkh fxuuhqw ydoxh ri |rxu kroglqjv lq DEF dqg[\] duh
�c fff� Df ' mDfc fff dqg2c fff� �ff ' m2ffc fff
� Wkh zhljkwv duh wkxv�� '
Dfc fff
2Dfc fff' f�2 dqg �� ' f�H
� Wkh h{shfwhg uhwxuq rq |rxu sruwirolr lv=7oR ' f�2� .I n f�H� �2I
' ��I
G1Jurpe24817482Idoo4<<;2Wrslf43 44
YDULDQFH DQG VWDQGDUG GHYLDWLRQ
Yduldqfh ri wkh Uhwxuq rq Dvvhw D lv d phdvxuhri krz pxfk wkh uhdol}hg uhwxuq lv olnho| wr gl�huiurp wkh h{shfwhg uhwxuq
Ydud�o�o � j2
�' .
%E�o� � 7o��
2
&
'?[�'�
R� �#o��� 7o�
$2
' .��o2�
�� 7o2�
Vwdqgdug Ghyldwlrq ri Dvvhw D*v uhwxuq
VwGd�o�o � j� 'uYdud�o�o
&�wk Fhqwudo Prphqw +& � 2,=
�&d�o�o � .%E�o� � 7o��
&
&'
?[�'�
R� �#o��� 7o�
$&
G1Jurpe24817482Idoo4<<;2Wrslf43 45
FRYDULDQFH DQG FRUUHODWLRQ
Fryduldqfh= Dphdvxuh ri wkh ghjuhh wr zklfk wkhuhwxuqv rq wzr dvvhwv �pryh wrjhwkhu�
Fryd�o�c �o�o � j�� ' . dE�o� � 7o�� E�o� � 7o��o
'?[�'�
R� �#o�� � 7o�
$ #o�� � 7o�
$
' . d�o� � �o�o� 7o� � 7o�
Qrwh=Ydud�o�o ' Fry d�o�c �o�o
Fruuhodwlrq +Frh!flhqw,= Qrupdol}hg phdvxuhri wkh ghjuhh wr zklfk wkh uhwxuqv rq wzr dvvhwv�pryh wrjhwkhu�
Fruud�o�c �o�o � 4��
'j��j�j�
Qrwh=
� 4��5 dfc �o
� Wkh uhwxuqv rq dvvhw D dqg E duh vdlg wr eh
� Shuihfwo| srvlwlyho| fruuhodwhg li 4�� ' n�
� Shuihfwo| qhjdwlyho| fruuhodwhg li 4�� ' ��
� Xqfruuhodwhg li 4�� ' f
� Fruuhodwlrq zlwk d ulvn0iuhh dvvhw lv }hur
G1Jurpe24817482Idoo4<<;2Wrslf43 46
YDULDQFH RI D SRUWIROLR
� Frqvlghu d sruwirolr zlwk zhljkwv �� rq dvvhw Ddqg �� ' E�� ��� rq dvvhw E
� Wkh yduldqfh lvj2R' �2
�j2�n�2
�j2�n 2����j��
� Wkh yduldqfh ri wkh uhwxuq rq d sruwirolr ri �dvvhwv � ' �c ���c � zlwk zhljkwv �� lv
j2R'
�[
�'�
�[
�'�
����j��
zkhuh zh xvh wkh qrwdwlrq j�� ' j2�
G1Jurpe24817482Idoo4<<;2Wrslf43 47
Surri=
Frqvlghu d sruwirolr zlwk v� vkduhv lq dvvhwv dvvhw l @ 4> ===> Q
�
2
R@ H
5
7
#�[
�'�
z��u� �
�[
�'�
z��u�
$26
8
@ H
5
7
#�[
�'�
z� +�u� � �u�,
$26
8
@ H
5
7
3
C�[
�'�
�[
�'�
z�z� +�u� � �u�, +�u� � �u�,
4
D
6
8
@
�[
�'�
�[
�'�
z�z�H ^+�u� � �u�, +�u� � �u�,`
Wkh h{shfwhg uhwxuq ri sruwirolr ehwzhhq w @ 3 dqg w @ 4 lv=
H^�uR` @
H{shfwhg Ydoxh ri Sruwirolr dw w @ 4
Ydoxh ri Sruwirolr dw w @ 3
� 4
@
S�
�'�v� �Hf
^G�
�. S
�
�`
S�
�'�v�S
�
f
@
�[
�'�
#v� � S
�
f
S�
�'�v�S
�
f
�
Hf^G�
�.S
�
�`
S
�
f
$
@
�[
�'�
z� � �u�
G1Jurpe24817482Idoo4<<;2Wrslf43 48
H[DPSOH
Frqvlghu wkh uhwxuqv rq D dqg E=
Vwdwh 4 5 6Suredelolw| f�2f f�Sf f�2fo� �DI �fI 2fIo� ��fI �fI efI
� H{shfwhg uhwxuqv=
7o� ' f�2� E�f�fD� n f�S� f��f n f�2� f�2f
' bI
7o� ' �2I
� Yduldqfh=j2
�' f�2� E�f�fD� f�fb�2 n f�S� Ef��f� f�fb�2
nf�2� Ef�2f� f�fb�2
' f�ffSe
j2
�' f�f2DS
G1Jurpe24817482Idoo4<<;2Wrslf43 49
� Vwdqgdug Ghyldwlrq=j� '
sf�ffSe ' H�ffI
j� ' �S�ffI
� Fryduldqfh=j�� ' f�2� E�f�fD� f�fb�� E�f��f� f��2�
nf�S� Ef��f� f�fb�� Ef��f� f��2�
nf�2� Ef�2f� f�fb�� Ef�ef� f��2�
' f�f�22
� Fruuhodwlrq=4��
'f�f�22
f�fH� f��S' f�bD��2D
Frqvlghu d sruwirolr zlwk htxdo zhljkwv rq D dqg E
� H{shfwhg uhwxuq=7oR '
�
2� 7o� n
�
2� 7o� ' �f�DI
� Vwdqgdug Ghyldwlrq=jR '
yxxxxw�
e� f�ffSe n
�
e� f�f2DS n
�
2� f�f�22
' ���H.I
G1Jurpe24817482Idoo4<<;2Wrslf43 4:
Surshuwlhv
Ohw @ dqg K eh wzr frqvwdqwv1
.d@�%o ' @.d�%o
Ydud@�%o ' Fryd@�%c @�%o ' @2Fryd�%c �%o' @2Ydud�%o ' @2j2
%
Fryd@�%c K�+o ' E@K�Fryd�%c �+o ' E@K�j%+
Ydud@�% n K�+o ' @2j2
%n K2j2
+n 2E@K�j%+
.d�%�+o ' .d�%o.d�+o n Fryd�%c �+o�
G1Jurpe24817482Idoo4<<;2Wrslf43 4;
OLQHDU UHJUHVVLRQ
Uhodwlrq ehwzhhq wzr udqgrp yduldeohv �+ dqg �%=
�+ ' k n q+%�% n �"
zkhuh
q+%
'Fryd+c %oYdud%o
'j+%
j2%
k ' 7+ � q+%7%
.d�" m �%o ' f
Qrwh=
� q+%jlyhv wkh h{shfwhg ghyldwlrq ri �+ iurp 7+ iru
d jlyhq ghyldwlrq ri �% iurp 7%
� �" kdv }hur phdq= .d�"o ' f
� �" uhsuhvhqwv wkh sduw ri + wkdw lv xquhodwhg wr %=
Fryd%c "o ' f
G1Jurpe24817482Idoo4<<;2Wrslf43 4<
Ixuwkhupruh=
j2
+' Ydud�+o ' Ydudk n q
+%�% n�"o
' q2
+%j2
%n j2
"
� H{sodlqhg yduldqfh= q2
+%j2
%
� Xqh{sodlqhg yduldqfh= j2
"
Iudfwlrq ri wkh wrwdo yduldqfh ri �+ h{sodlqhg e| �%=
-2 'H{sodlqhg YduldqfhWrwdo Yduldqfh
'q2
+%j2
%
j2+
'q2
+%j2
%
q2
+%j2%n j2
"
G1Jurpe24817482Idoo4<<;2Wrslf43 53
H{dpsoh= V)S833 +�%, dqg PdvvDlu +�+,
q+%
'f�f�22
f�fH2' ��bfS2 dqg k ' �f�fD�S�
Vwdwh � 2 �Suredelolw| f�2f f�Sf f�2fUhwxuq rq V)S 833 +(, �D�ff �f�ff 2f�ffUhwxuq rq PdvvDlu +(, ��f�ff �f�ff ef�ff�" ' �+ � Ek n q
+%�%� +(, e�Sb ���bf .�fe
Pruhryhu/
j2
%' f�ffSec j2
+' f�f2DSc j2
"' f�ff2�e
-2 'E��bfS2�2E�ffSe�
E�f2DS�' f�bfHe
��-2 ' f�fb�S�
G1Jurpe24817482Idoo4<<;2Wrslf43 54
PHDVXULQJ ULVN
Frqvlghu wkh iroorzlqj dvvhwv=
Vwdwh � 2 � PhdqSuredelolw| �*� �*� �*�
�o� DI DI DI DI�o� ��fI DI 2fI DI�o� �DI DI �DI DI�o( �D�DI SI �e�DI DI
Vxssrvh |rx zhuh wr lqyhvw doo |rxu zhodwk lq rqo|rqh dvvhw=
�Zrxog |rx fkrrvh Dvvhw D ru EB
�Zrxog |rx fkrrvh Dvvhw E ru FB
�Zrxog |rx fkrrvh Dvvhw F ru GB
Wkhvh uhwxuqv kdyh wkh iroorzlqj prphqwv=
Phdq VwG Vnhzqhvv�o� DI f�ffI fI�o� DI �2�2DI fI�o� DI H��SI fI�o( DI H��SI �f�D.I
G1Jurpe24817482Idoo4<<;2Wrslf43 55
Qrwh= Wkh gh�qlwlrq ri vnhzqhvv iru Dvvhw D*v uh0wxuq lv
Vnhzqhvv '+.
%E�o� � 7o��
�&,�*�
*j�
Wr phdvxuh ulvn/ zh qhhg wr nqrz krz lqyhvwruvuhdfw wr xqfhuwdlqw|1
G1Jurpe24817482Idoo4<<;2Wrslf43 56
DVVXPSWLRQV DERXW
LQYHVWRUV* SUHIHUHQFHV
Lq wklv frxuvh/ zh zloo dvvxph wkdw lqyhvwruv=
41 Suhihu kljkhu phdq lq uhwxuq
51 Suhihu orzhu vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq lq uhwxuq
61 Gr qrw fduh derxw rwkhu wklqjv
Zlwk wkhvh dvvxpswlrqv/ vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq +ru ydul0dqfh, lv wkh uhohydqw d phdvxuh ri ulvn
Qrwh= Devhqw wkhvh dvvxpswlrqv/ kljkhu prphqwv+h1j1 vnhzqhvv, pd| pdwwhu
G1Jurpe24817482Idoo4<<;2Wrslf43 57
DVVXPSWLRQV DERXW UHWXUQV
Lq suhylrxv glvfxvvlrqv/ zh frqvlghuhg uhwxuq dqg ulvnryhu d �{hg krul}rq1
Krzhyhu/ lq pdq| fdvhv/ zh qhhg wr nqrz=
� Krz gr ulvn dqg uhwxuq ydu| zlwk krul}rqB
� Krz gr ulvn dqg uhwxuq fkdqjh ryhu wlphB
Lq wklv frxuvh/ zh pdnh wkh L1L1G1 Dvvxpswlrq=
Dq dvvhw*v vxffhvvlyh uhwxuqv duh lqghshq0ghqwo| dqg lghqwlfdoo| glvwulexwhg1
Qrwh= Uhwxuqv rq dq dvvhw duh LLG li lwv sulfh iroorzvd jhrphwulf udqgrp zdon +l1h1/ wkh orj0sulfh iroorzvd vlpsoh udqgrp zdon,1
G1Jurpe24817482Idoo4<<;2Wrslf43 58
Lpsolfdwlrqv=
+d, Uhwxuqv duh vhuldoo| xqfruuhodwhg
+e, Qr suhglfdeoh wuhqgv/ f|fohv ru sdwwhuqv lq uhwxuqv
+f, Ulvn +phdvxuhg e| yduldqfh, dffxpxodwhv olqhduo|ryhu wlph
Xqghu LLG dvvxpswlrq=
T @od�o�n�o2n� � �n�o|o ' T @od�o�o� |
Wkxv
� Dqqxdo yduldqfh lv 45 wlphv wkhprqwko| yduldqfh� Dqqxdo VwG lv
s�2 wlphv wkh prqwko| VwG
G1Jurpe24817482Idoo4<<;2Wrslf43 59
Dgydqwdjh ri LLG dvvxpswlrq=
� Uhwxuq glvwulexwlrq ryhu d sduwlfxodu krul}rq sur0ylghv vx!flhqw lqirupdwlrq rq uhwxuqv ryhu dookrul}rqv
� Uhwxuq glvwulexwlrq lv hdv| wr hvwlpdwh iurp sdvwuhwxuqv
Zhdnqhvv ri LLG dvvxpswlrq=
� Lq uhdolw|/ uhwxuqv pd| eh vhuldoo| fruuhodwhg� Lq uhdolw|/ ulvn pd| qrw dffxpxodwh olqhduo| ryhuwlph
G1Jurpe24817482Idoo4<<;2Wrslf43 5:
HVWLPDWLQJ ULVN DQG UHWXUQ
Wr hvwlpdwh wkh glvwulexwlrq ri ixwxuh rxwfrphv/ zhw|slfdoo| xvh klvwrulfdo gdwd=
io��c o�2c � � � c o�|c � � � c o�Ajc � ' �c 2c � � � c ?
Ohw e� ghqrwh dq hvwlpdwh edvhg rq wkh klvwrulfdo gdwd+d vdpsoh, ri d sdudphwhu ri wkh wuxh glvwulexwlrq+srsxodwlrq,1
Xqghu LLG Dvvxpswlrq=
41 Vdpsoh Phdq=
e7o� '�
AEo�� n o�2 n � � � n o�A �
51 Vdpsoh Yduldqfh=
fj2
� '�
AdEo��� e7o��2nEo�2� e7o��2n� � �nEo�A� e7o��2o
61 Vdpsoh Vwdqgdug Ghyldwlrq=
fj� 'vfj2�
G1Jurpe24817482Idoo4<<;2Wrslf43 5;
71 Vdpsoh Fryduldqfh=
fj�� '�
AdEo�� � e7o��Eo�� � e7o�� n Eo�2 � e7o��Eo�2 � e7o��
n � � � n Eo�A � e7o��Eo�A � e7o��o
81 Vdpsoh q= fq�� ' fj��*fj2
�
G1Jurpe24817482Idoo4<<;2Wrslf43 5<
H[DPSOH
Gdwd rq txduwhuo| uhwxuqv rq V)S 833 lqgh{ dqgGhoo vwrfn duh jlyhq lq wkh iroorzlqj wdeoh=
Gdwd Uhwxuq +( shu twu,V)S Ghoo
4<<40T7 ���e� b�fe4<<50T4 �2�DD e��bD4<<50T5 ��b. �2D�2S4<<50T6 ���f D.�b�4<<50T7 D��f S.�SH4<<60T4 e�2H �2S�H24<<60T5 f�D� �eS�S24<<60T6 2�DS ������4<<60T7 2��� �S�fb4<<70T4 ���H� ���Sf4<<70T5 f�e� e�eS4<<70T6 e�b2 e��be4<<70T7 �f�f� b�D24<<80T4 b�.e S�.�4<<80T5 b�eb �.�e�4<<80T6 .�bD e���.4<<80T7 D�bS �2���H
Xqghu wkh LLGDvvxpswlrq/ zh fdq hvwlpdwh wkh vdp0soh prphqwv1
G1Jurpe24817482Idoo4<<;2Wrslf43 63
G1Jurpe24817482Idoo4<<;2Wrslf43 64
Vdpsoh prphqwv iru V)S 833 dqg Ghoo
+4<<71T7 � 4<<81T7,
Vdpsoh Prphqwv V)S 833 GhooPhdq f�f�.� f���.bYduldqfh f�ff�H�D f�ff�f.fVwG f�fe2H f�f�2.�Vnhzqhvv �eb ��D�Fryduldqfh f�ff�H..Ehwd ��f2
G1Jurpe24817482Idoo4<<;2Wrslf43 65
KLVWRULFDO UHWXUQ DQG ULVN
Wkuhh nh| idfwv iurp klvwru| ri XV �qdqfldo pdunhwv=
41 Uhwxuq rq pruh ulvn| dvvhwv kdv ehhqkljkhu rq dyhudjh wkdq uhwxuq rq ohvv ulvn|dvvhwv
Dyhudjh Dqqxdo Wrwdo Uhwxuqv iurp 4<59 wr 4<<9 +Qrplqdo,
Dvvhw Phdq +(, VwG +(,
W0eloov 61; 616
Orqj whup W0erqgv 817 <15
Orqj whup frus1 erqgv 913 ;1:
Odujh vwrfnv 451: 5316
Vpdoo vwrfnv 4:1: 6714
Lq dwlrq 615 718
Dyhudjh Dqqxdo Wrwdo Uhwxuqv iurp 4<59 wr 4<<9 +Uhdo,
Dvvhw Phdq +(, VwG +(,
W0eloov 31: 715
Orqj whup W0erqgv 517 4318
Orqj whup frus1 erqgv 51< 4313
Odujh vwrfnv <17 5317
Vpdoo vwrfnv 4714 6618
G1Jurpe24817482Idoo4<<;2Wrslf43 66
Uhdo uhwxuqv iurp 4<59 wr 4<<9
Vhfxulw| Lqlwldo Wrwdo Uhwxuq 7o +( s1d1, j +( s1d1,
W0Eloov '4133 4186 31: 715
Orqj Whup W0Erqgv '4133 61;4 517 4318
Frusrudwh Erqgv '4133 8187 51< 4313
Odujh Vwrfnv '4133 4871<8 <17 5317
Vpdoo Vwrfnv '4133 83;14: 4714 6618
G1Jurpe24817482Idoo4<<;2Wrslf43 67
51 Uhwxuqv rq ulvn| dvvhwv duh kljko| fruuh0odwhg wr hdfk rwkhu
Furvv Fruuhodwlrqv ri Dqqxdo Qrplqdo Uhwxuqv +4<59 � 4<<9,
Eloov W0erqgv F0erqgv O1 vwrfnv V1 vwrfnv Lq dwlrq
W0eloov 4133 3157 3155 03137 0313< 3174
O1W1 W0erqgv 4133 31<7 314; 3136 03148
O1w1 F0erqgv 4133 3158 3144 03148
Odujh vwrfnv 4133 31;4 03135
Vpdoo vwrfnv 4133 3137
Lq dwlrq 4133
Furvv Fruuhodwlrqv ri Dqqxdo Uhdo Uhwxuqv +4<59 � 4<<9,
Eloov W0erqgv F0erqgv O1 vwrfnv V1 vwrfnv
W0eloov 4133 318; 318< 3144 03139
O1W1 W0erqgv 4133 31<9 3158 313:
O1w1 F0erqgv 4133 3164 3147
Odujh vwrfnv 4133 31;4
Vpdoo vwrfnv 4133
G1Jurpe24817482Idoo4<<;2Wrslf43 68
G1Jurpe24817482Idoo4<<;2Wrslf43 69
61 Uhwxuqv rq ulvn dvvhwv duh xqfruuhodwhgryhu wlph
Vhuldo Fruuhodwlrqv ri Dqqxdo Dvvhw UhwxuqvVhuldo Fruuhodwlrq
Dvvhw Qrplqdo uhwxuq Uhdo uhwxuq
W0eloov 31<5 3199
Orqj whup W0erqgv 03134 313:
Orqj whup frus1 erqgv 3143 3154
Odujh vwrfnv 03134 03135
Vpdoo vwrfnv 313< 3139