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Page 1:  · XLS file · Web view2010-03-05 · CO2freeAllow BaseRevReq&CO2cap Energy07 Overlay 2006 2005 2004 ExportCharts GenCharts Composite Net_Generation_by_State__Type_1 Net_Generation_by_State__Type_of_Producer__Energy_Source

Page 1 of 18

Nebraska Statewide Integration Study - Key Facts Dec 16, 2009Current Situation Scenario 1 Scenario 3-w/overlay Scenario 4-w/overlay Sources and Assumptions

2007 10%-Composite 20%-Composite 40%-CompositeNEB WIND GENERATIONNameplate Wind Gen (MW) 72 ('07), 152 ('09) 1,249 2,488 4,727 Table 1 of main body, 12-09-09

250 311 430 Table 1 of main body, 12-09-090.06% - 1.94% 0.06% - 1.94% 0.06%-2.41%

2.94% 4.75% 6.55%

Wind Capacity Factor (annual, %) 30% ('07) 41.5% 40.8% 41.1% Average of three yearsWind Generation (GWh) 187 ('07) 4,537 8,886 17,002 Average of three years

417 830 1,576 3

124,900 248,800 472,700 100

6,657 13,261 25,195 5.33

$227 $444 $850 $50

$2,623 $5,225 $9,927 $2,100

NEB TRANSMISSIONNew Transmission Miles 179 1,052 1,299

$15 $174 $195

$193 $2,181 $2,435

Average (for all) Size Modeled (MW)Cap Accred by farm (SPP rule, MW)

Tables 20, 21, 22 of Section 8.2, 12-09-09, min of July/Aug

Cap Accred applied to Aggregate (SPP rule, MW)

Table 23 of Section 8.2, 12-09-09, min of July/Aug

Number of Wind Turbines (at 3.0 MW each)

46('07), 73 ('09) variable sizes

MW size assumption (from LR83 paper, Topic 4, page 4, June 09)

Land Use Under Lease in Acres (at 100 acres per MW each)

acres lease per MW assumption (from LR83 paper, Topic 4, page 4, June 09)

Land Use Disturbed in Acres (at 5.33 acres per MW)

acres disturbed per MW assumption (from LR83 paper, Topic 4, page 4, June 09)

Annual Purchase Cost of Wind Generation in Millions of 2009$ (at $50/MWh)

per MWh of wind generation for purchase cost in 2009$

Approx Investment Cost for Wind Generation Developer in Millions of 2009$

per kW assumption for 2009 (from LR83 paper, Topic 4, page 4, June 09)

Annual Cost for New Transmission in Millions of 2009$Investment Cost for New Transmission in Millions of 2009$

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Page 2 of 18

Nebraska Statewide Integration Study - Key Facts Dec 16, 2009Current Situation Scenario 1 Scenario 3-w/overlay Scenario 4-w/overlay Sources and Assumptions

2007 10%-Composite 20%-Composite 40%-CompositeNEB LOAD AND GENERATION

6,080 7,489 7,489 7,489

Estimated Annual Load Factor 57.3% 60.1% 60.1% 60.1% 30,505 39,405 39,405 39,405

12.1% 14.9% 14.9% 14.9%

Nebraska Generation (GWh) 36,394 49,085 53,570 58,308 Coal 21,646 29,336 29,699 27,285 Nuclear 11,042 9,683 9,684 9,682 Gas/Oil 1,146 3,277 3,046 2,086 Hydro & Other Renewable 2,373 2,253 2,253 2,253 Wind Renewable 187 4,536 8,889 17,001 Net Exports (GWh) 5,888 9,680 14,165 18,903 NEB CO2 EMISSIONS

32.62 32.90 29.97

-0.32 -0.60 2.33 32.30

SPP INTEGRATION COSTS (2006 PATTERN - 2009$/MWh)Shaped Proxy 1.39 1.75

Sub-period Block Proxy - Native 1.92 3.11 (Scenario 2) NA5.41 9.26 (Scenario 2) NA

NEB INTEGRATION COSTS (2006 PATTERN - millions of 2009$)Shaped Proxy 6.31 29.75

Sub-period Block Proxy - Native 8.71 27.64 (Scenario 2) NA24.55 82.28 (Scenario 2) NA

Estimated Coincident Peak Demand (MW)

Nebraska Load + Est. Losses (GWh)

2007 from page 30, main body, 12-09-09, 7.4% losses. 2018 from page 50 of main body, 12-09-09

Estimated Neb Share of SPP Load + Losses

Rest of SPP sales for 2007 are estimated beginning with 2005 values from DOE eGrid generation data at www.epa.gov/cleanenergy/documents/egridzips/eGRID2007V1_1_year05_SummaryTables.pdf, then using an estimated scale factor up to 2007. 2018 data from page 50 of main body.

Neb CO2 Emissions in millions of short-tonsNeb CO2 Emissions Reductions in millions of short-tons (NOT counting external to Neb)

Reference Emissions for Existing Wind

1.52 (Scenario 3) 1.45 (Scenario

2) Sub-period Block Proxy - Implied (including "exported" shape costs) above normalized cost applied to Neb Wind

MWh13.51 (Scenario 3) 12.88 (Scenario 2)

Sub-period Block Proxy - Implied (including "exported" shape costs)

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Nebraska Statewide Integration Study - Key Facts Dec 16, 2009Current Situation Scenario 1 Scenario 3-w/overlay Scenario 4-w/overlay Sources and Assumptions

2007 10%-Composite 20%-Composite 40%-Composite

NEB HOURLY RAMPING-LOAD (MW, 2006 pattern, 20%)Annual Maximum Up-Ramp 643 (hour 7, Feb) Figure 116, section 8.2Highest Monthly Average Up-Ramp 430 (hour 7, Jan) Figure 115, section 8.2Annual Maximum Down-Ramp -718 (hour 1, Oct) Figure 137, section 8.2Highest Monthly Avg Down-Ramp -477 (hour 24, Aug) Figure 136, section 8.2

NEB HOURLY RAMPING-LOAD NET WIND (MW, 2006 pattern, 20%)Annual Maximum Up-Ramp 1,113 (hour 8, Jan) Figure 116, section 8.2Highest Monthly Average Up-Ramp 501 (hour 9, July) Figure 115, section 8.2Annual Maximum Down-Ramp -1,008 (hour 23, Sep) Figure 137, section 8.2Highest Monthly Avg Down-Ramp -494 (hour 24, Aug) Figure 136, section 8.2

SPP REGULATING RESERVES WITH NEBRASKA (HOURLY MAXIMUM MW, 2006 PROFILE)Load Only Requirements 528 528 528 Table 59, main body

1152 1800 3257 Table 59, main body852 1542 3034 Table 59, main body

SPP REGULATING RESERVES WITH NEBRASKA (AVERAGE MW, 2006 PROFILE)Load Only Requirements 295 295 295 Table 59, main body

794 1291 2337 Table 59, main body499 996 2042 Table 59, main body

SPP REVENUE REQUIREMENT (TOTAL COST) IN AVERAGE RATE TERMS

KEY STUDY PARAMETERSStudy was focused in year 2018 to allow significant development of wind generation, transmission and load.Wind patterns used were 2004, 2005, 2006 and matched with utility load patterns for those years.Wind penetration levels ranged from 10% to 40% measured by native load customer energy requirements.Only other generation added was Whelan 2, ADM, and a conversion of CT plant to CC.New Transmission added included Knoll - Axtell, plus local reinforcements for injections, plus overlay in Scenarios 3 and 4

Sensitivity cases run include various proxy resources, CO2 cost, REC price, market structure, hurdle rate, existing wind, Neb overlay at 345kV, and WAPA mitigation.

Load and Wind Together RequirementsIncremental Requirement from Wind (Coincidental - not the delta of the above numbers)

Load and Wind Together RequirementsIncremental Requirement from Wind

Estimated Average Retail Rate (nominal cents/kWh)

7.43 (2007 cents)

10.55 (2018 cents)

10.77 (2018 cents)

11.05 (2018 cents)

Models look at variability of load and wind and uncertainty of the wind, covering Nebraska, down to north Texas, up into Canada, and east to Pennsylvania and Tennessee.Base assumptions for the 2018 results above are $25/short ton of CO2 emission (2018$), REC price at zero, cap-and-trade CO2 regulation (with some emissions allowed up to cap).

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Scenario 3 Scenario 4-w/overlay

Neb CO2 Emissions Reduction

Coal59%

Nuclear30%

Gas/Oil3%

Hydro & Other Renewable7%

Wind Renewable1%

Nebraska's Energy Sources - 2007 - 36,394GWh

Coal60%

Nuclear20%

Gas/Oil7%

Hydro & Other Renewable5%

Wind Renewable9%

Nebraska's Energy Sources - 2018 (10%) - 49,085 GWh

Coal55%

Nuclear18%

Gas/Oil6%

Hydro & Other Renewable4%

Wind Renewable17%

Nebraska's Energy Sources - 2018 (20%) - 53,570 GWh

Coal47%

Nuclear17%

Gas/Oil4%

Hydro & Other Renewable4%

Wind Renewable29%

Nebraska's Energy Sources - 2018 (40%) - 58,308 GWh

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Scenario 3 Scenario 4-w/overlay

Neb CO2 Emissions Reduction

Neb Load + Losses84%

Net Neb Exports16%

Nebraska's Generation Use - 2007 - 36,394 GWh

Neb Load + Losses80%

Net Neb Exports20%

Nebraska's Generation Use - 2018 (10%) - 49,085 GWh

Neb Load + Losses74%

Net Neb Exports26%

Nebraska's Generation Use - 2018 (20%) - 53,570 GWh

Neb Load + Losses68%

Net Neb Exports32%

Nebraska's Generation Use - 2018 (40%) - 58,308 GWh

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Current Situation Scenario 1 Scenario 3-w/overlay2008???? 10%-2004 pattern 20%-2004 pattern

Nameplate Wind Gen (MW) 1,249 2,488250 311NA NA

NA NA

Wind Capacity Factor (annual, %) 39.5% 38.9%Wind Generation (GWh) 4,326 8,478

417 830

124,900 248,800

6,657 13,261

$216 $424

2,623 5,225 New Transmission Miles 179 1,052

$15 $174

$193 $2,181

30,505 39,405 39,405 Nebraska Generation (GWh) 36,394 48,860 53,150 Coal 21,646 29,352 29,732 Nuclear 11,042 9,683 9,684 Gas/Oil 1,146 3,272 3,042 Hydro & Other Renewable 2,373 2,253 2,253 Wind Renewable 187 4,300 8,440 Net Exports (GWh) 5,888 9,455 13,745

32.59 32.89

-0.29 -0.59

Average (for all) Size Modeled (MW)Cap Accred by farm (SPP rule, MW) Cap Accred applied to Aggregate (SPP rule, MW)

Number of Wind Turbines (at 3.0 MW each)

Land Use Under Lease in Acres (at 100 acres per MW each)

Land Use Disturbed in Acres (at 5.33 acres per MW)

Annual Purchase Cost of Wind Generation in Millions of 2009$ (at $50/MWh)

Approx Investment Cost for Wind Generation Developer in Millions of 2009$

Annual Cost for New Transmission in Millions of 2009$Investment Cost for New Transmission in Millions of 2009$Nebraska Load + Est. Losses (GWh)

CO2 Emissions in millions of short-tonsNeb CO2 Emissions Reductions in millions of short-tons (NOT counting external to Neb)

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Scenario 4-w/overlay Sources and Assumptions40%-2004 pattern

4,727 Table 1 of main body, 12-09-09430 Table 1 of main body, 12-09-09NA

NA

39.4% Calculated16,317 Tables 9, 10, 11 of Section 8.2, 12-09-091,576 3

472,700 100

25,195 5.33

$816 $50

9,927 2100 per kW assumption for 2009 (from LR83 paper, Topic 4, page 4, June 09)1,299 $195

$2,435

39,405 2007 from page 30, main body, 12-09-09, 7.4% losses. 2018 from page 50 of main body, 12-09-09 57,750 48860 53150 57750 27,463 Tables 67, red need fixing 9,682 Tables 67, red need fixing 2,122 Tables 67, red need fixing 2,253 Tables 67, red need fixing 16,230 Tables 67, red need fixing 18,345

30.12

2.18 32.30 Reference Emissions for Existing Wind

MW size assumption (from LR83 paper, Topic 4, page 4, June 09)

acres lease per MW assumption (from LR83 paper, Topic 4, page 4, June 09)

acres distrurbed per MW assumption (from LR83 paper, Topic 4, page 4, June 09)

per MWh of wind generation for purchase cost in 2009$

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per kW assumption for 2009 (from LR83 paper, Topic 4, page 4, June 09)

2007 from page 30, main body, 12-09-09, 7.4% losses. 2018 from page 50 of main body, 12-09-09

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Current Situation Scenario 1 Scenario 3-w/overlay2008???? 10%-2005 pattern 20%-2005 pattern

Nameplate Wind Gen (MW) 1,249 2,488250 311NA NA

NA NA

Wind Capacity Factor (annual, %) 41.6% 41.0%Wind Generation (GWh) 4,549 8,945

417 830

124,900 248,800

6,657 13,261

$227 $447

2,623 5,225 New Transmission Miles 179 1,052

$15 $174

$193 $2,181

30,505 39,405 39,405 Nebraska Generation (GWh) 36,394 49,140 53,654 Coal 21,646 29,373 29,712 Nuclear 11,042 9,684 9,684 Gas/Oil 1,146 3,272 3,042 Hydro & Other Renewable 2,373 2,253 2,253 Wind Renewable 187 4,559 8,964 Net Exports (GWh) 5,888 9,735 14,249

32.68 32.94

-0.38 -0.64

Average (for all) Size Modeled (MW)Cap Accred by farm (SPP rule, MW) Cap Accred applied to Aggregate (SPP rule, MW)

Number of Wind Turbines (at 3.0 MW each)

Land Use Under Lease in Acres (at 100 acres per MW each)

Land Use Disturbed in Acres (at 5.33 acres per MW)

Annual Purchase Cost of Wind Generation in Millions of 2009$ (at $50/MWh)

Approx Investment Cost for Wind Generation Developer in Millions of 2009$

Annual Cost for New Transmission in Millions of 2009$Investment Cost for New Transmission in Millions of 2009$Nebraska Load + Est. Losses (GWh)

CO2 Emissions in millions of short-tonsNeb CO2 Emissions Reductions in millions of short-tons (NOT counting external to Neb)

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Scenario 4-w/overlay Sources and Assumptions40%-2005 pattern

4,727 Table 1 of main body, 12-09-09430 Table 1 of main body, 12-09-09NA

NA

41.0% Calculated16,992 Tables 9, 10, 11 of Section 8.2, 12-09-091,576 3

472,700 100

25,195 5.33

$850 $50

9,927 2100 per kW assumption for 2009 (from LR83 paper, Topic 4, page 4, June 09)1,299 $195

$2,435

39,405 2007 from page 30, main body, 12-09-09, 7.4% losses. 2018 from page 50 of main body, 12-09-09 58,369 27,283 Tables 71, 73, 74 9,683 Tables 71, 73, 74 2,122 Tables 71, 73, 74 2,253 Tables 71, 73, 74 17,028 Tables 71, 73, 74 18,964

30

2.30 32.30 Reference Emissions for Existing Wind

MW size assumption (from LR83 paper, Topic 4, page 4, June 09)

acres lease per MW assumption (from LR83 paper, Topic 4, page 4, June 09)

acres distrurbed per MW assumption (from LR83 paper, Topic 4, page 4, June 09)

per MWh of wind generation for purchase cost in 2009$

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per kW assumption for 2009 (from LR83 paper, Topic 4, page 4, June 09)

2007 from page 30, main body, 12-09-09, 7.4% losses. 2018 from page 50 of main body, 12-09-09

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Current Situation Scenario 1 Scenario 3-w/overlay2008???? 10%-2006 pattern 20%-2006 pattern

Nameplate Wind Gen (MW) 1,249 2,488250 311NA NA

NA NA

Wind Capacity Factor (annual, %) 43.3% 42.4%Wind Generation (GWh) 4,736 9,235

417 830

124,900 248,800

6,657 13,261

$237 $462

2,623 5,225 New Transmission Miles 179 1,052

$15 $174

$193 $2,181

30,505 39,405 39,405 Nebraska Generation (GWh) 36,394 49,253 53,906 Coal 21,646 29,283 29,653 Nuclear 11,042 9,683 9,684 Gas/Oil 1,146 3,286 3,053 Hydro & Other Renewable 2,373 2,253 2,253 Wind Renewable 187 4,750 9,264 Net Exports (GWh) 5,888 9,848 14,501

32.59 32.88

-0.29 -0.58

Average (for all) Size Modeled (MW)Cap Accred by farm (SPP rule, MW) Cap Accred applied to Aggregate (SPP rule, MW)

Number of Wind Turbines (at 3.0 MW each)

Land Use Under Lease in Acres (at 100 acres per MW each)

Land Use Disturbed in Acres (at 5.33 acres per MW)

Annual Purchase Cost of Wind Generation in Millions of 2009$ (at $50/MWh)

Approx Investment Cost for Wind Generation Developer in Millions of 2009$

Annual Cost for New Transmission in Millions of 2009$Investment Cost for New Transmission in Millions of 2009$Nebraska Load + Est. Losses (GWh)

CO2 Emissions in millions of short-tonsNeb CO2 Emissions Reductions in millions of short-tons (NOT counting external to Neb)

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Scenario 4-w/overlay Sources and Assumptions40%-2006 pattern

4,727 Table 1 of main body, 12-09-09430 Table 1 of main body, 12-09-09NA

NA

42.7% Calculated17,696 Tables 9, 10, 11 of Section 8.2, 12-09-091,576 3

472,700 100

25,195 5.33

$885 $50

9,927 2100 per kW assumption for 2009 (from LR83 paper, Topic 4, page 4, June 09)1,299 $195

$2,435

39,405 2007 from page 30, main body, 12-09-09, 7.4% losses. 2018 from page 50 of main body, 12-09-09 58,807 27,111 Tables 75, 77, 78 9,682 Tables 75, 77, 78 2,015 Tables 75, 77, 78 2,253 Tables 75, 77, 78 17,747 Tables 75, 77, 78 19,402

29.78

2.52 32.30 Reference Emissions for Existing Wind

MW size assumption (from LR83 paper, Topic 4, page 4, June 09)

acres lease per MW assumption (from LR83 paper, Topic 4, page 4, June 09)

acres distrurbed per MW assumption (from LR83 paper, Topic 4, page 4, June 09)

per MWh of wind generation for purchase cost in 2009$

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per kW assumption for 2009 (from LR83 paper, Topic 4, page 4, June 09)

2007 from page 30, main body, 12-09-09, 7.4% losses. 2018 from page 50 of main body, 12-09-09

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document.xls Page 15

NPA-NREL Wind Integration StudyEstimation of Overlay Miles765kV Base Overlay 345kV Neb Only

Involving Nebraska Rough Est Miles Nebraska Portion (in 20% sensitivity substitutes for Neb 765kV)GNTLM765 KNOLL765 240 130 Rough Est MilesGNTLM765 CHERY765 140 140 Axtell345 Gntlmn345 150RAUN765 CHERY765 270 270 Gntlmn345 Chery345 140COOPR765 RAUN765 160 160 Chery345 Hskns345 210COOPR765 IATAN765 100 40 Hskns345 FtCtClhn345 110

involving Neb--> 910 740 involving Neb--> 610Not involving Neb 10% 20% with 40% withWICHI765 COMAN765 120 -----------765kV---------WICHI765 WOFCK765 120 Neb 765kV miles-overlay 0 740 740SWISS765 WOFCK765 50 Neb Annual CC 09M$ $0 $132 $132 8% of wind generation costSEMIN765 L.E.S765 110 Neb Investment 09M$ $0 $1,654 $1,654 2.235SEMIN765 MUSKO765 120 ----other lower voltageL.E.S765 STLIN765 150 Local Trans (line & sub) - Neb 115kV/345kV linesSTLIN765 MOORL765 90 miles (composite) 139 272 519 0.9 million per mile -compositeSWISS765 IATAN765 70 Annual 09M$ $11.34 $22.22 $42.50 5% 100% / 8%WOFCK765 LACYG765 60 Investment 09M$ $141.78 $277.69 $531.30 12.50LACYG765 MUSKO765 210 Substations-overlaySPRVL765 KNOLL765 80 Annual 09M$ $0 $16 $16 12% of overlay line costSPRVL765 COMAN765 50 Investment 09M$ $0 $198 $198 12% of overlay line costSPRVL765 FINNY765 80 Axtell-Knoll 345kVHCHLD765 FINNY765 100 miles 40 40 40HCHLD765 MOORL765 130 Annual 09M$ 3.63 3.63 3.63 8%TUCO 765 STLIN765 180 Investment 09M$ 45.32 45.32 45.32 1.133MOORL765 COMAN765 70 sub-annual 09$ 0.44 0.44 0.44 8%FRANK765 LACYG765 150 sub-investment 09 5.44 5.44 5.44 12%FTSMT765 MUSKO765 80 179 1,052 1,299 TOTAL Miles

2020 rest of SPP $15 $174 $195 TOTAL Annual Cost in 09M$2930 2930 SPP incl Neb $193 $2,181 $2,435 TOTAL Investment Cost in 09M$

(if any-not including lines in the 10% and 20% w/o overlay cases)Involving Nebraska Rough Est MilesNONE 0

0 involving NebNot involving NebTuco345 Potter345 100PleasHill345 MariDelta345 130

230 rest of SPP230 230 SPP incl Neb

345kV incremental part of Base Overlay

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Net Generation by State, Type of Producer and Energy Source

Page 16

Alternative Chart for Website

YEAR STATE TYPE OF PRODUCER ENERGY SOURCENebraska's Energy Sources 2007 USA 2007 USA 2007 USA 2007

2007 NE Total Electric Power Industry Coal 19,629,911 60.5% 60.5% 19,630 Coal Coal 59.5% 59.5% 48.6% 48.6% 1+12+13 Coal 2,016,455,584 12007 NE Total Electric Power Industry Petroleum 35,767 0.1% 3.5% 1,146 Gas/Oil Diesel 0.1% 0.1% 1.6% 1.6% 2 Petroleum 65,738,978 22007 NE Total Electric Power Industry Natural Gas 1,110,020 3.4% 34.0% 11,042 Nuclear Gas 3.1% 3.0% 21.9% 21.9% 3+4 Natural Gas 896,589,791 32007 NE Total Electric Power Industry Other Gases 0 0.0% 1.1% 347 Conventional Hydro Nuclear 30.3% 30.3% 19.4% 19.4% 5 Other Gases 13,453,354 42007 NE Total Electric Power Industry Nuclear 11,041,532 34.0% 0.9% 278 Renewable Hydro Renew 6.4% 6.4% 6.0% 6.0% 6 Nuclear 806,424,753 52007 NE Total Electric Power Industry Hydroelectric Conventional 347,444 1.1% 100.0% 32,443 TOTAL Wind Renew 0.5% 0.5% 0.8% 0.8% 7Hydroelectric Conventional247,509,974 62007 NE Total Electric Power Industry Wind 216,765 0.7% Other Renew 0.1% 0.2% 1.7% 1.7% 8+9+10+11 Wind 34,449,927 72007 NE Total Electric Power Industry Other Biomass 61,259 0.2% 2007 Nebraska Electric Utility Generation by Fuel Source in GWh and Percent of Total TOTAL 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Solar Thermal and Photovoltaic611,793 82007 NE Total Electric Power Industry Total 32,442,698 Wood and Wood Derived Fuels39,014,024 92007 NE Electric Generators, Electric Utilities Coal 19,611,849 Geothermal 14,637,213 102007 NE Electric Generators, Electric Utilities Petroleum 35,552 Other Biomass 16,524,554 112007 NE Electric Generators, Electric Utilities Natural Gas 1,103,962 Pumped Storage -6,896,352 122007 NE Electric Generators, Electric Utilities Other Gases 0 Other 12,231,131 132007 NE Electric Generators, Electric Utilities Nuclear 11,041,532 Total 4,156,744,7242007 NE Electric Generators, Electric Utilities Hydroelectric Conventional 347,4442007 NE Electric Generators, Electric Utilities Wind 216,7652007 NE Electric Generators, Electric Utilities Other Biomass 46,1842007 NE Electric Generators, Electric Utilities Total 32,403,2892007 NE Combined Heat and Power, Electric Power Natural Gas 1,6842007 NE Combined Heat and Power, Electric Power Other Biomass 2,8372007 NE Combined Heat and Power, Electric Power Total 4,5212007 NE Combined Heat and Power, Commercial Power Petroleum 2152007 NE Combined Heat and Power, Commercial Power Natural Gas 4,3742007 NE Combined Heat and Power, Commercial Power Other Biomass 12,2382007 NE Combined Heat and Power, Commercial Power Total 16,8272007 NE Combined Heat and Power, Industrial Power Coal 18,0622007 NE Combined Heat and Power, Industrial Power Total 18,062

(US DOE-EIA Data - 2007 and Nebraska Utility Data) - 36,394 GWh "Adjustment" of DOE data file2007 GWh Source

Coal 19,630 53.9% DOE coal

(assume same as 2006) 1,248 3.4% LES, MEAN coal

(assume same as 2006) 768 2.1% Tri-State coalNuclear 11042 30.3% DOE nuclearGas/Oil 1,146 3.1% DOE gas/oilNeb Hydro 347 1.0% DOE Hyd&Oth Renew

(assume same as 2006) 1,972 5.4% All Neb Utilities Hyd&Oth RenewRenewable 240 0.7% DOE less 38 JEA estTOTAL 36,394 100%

2007 Retail Sales 28,248 GWh% toward RPS in 2007 0.85%% toward RPS in 2007 9.1% including hydro

State Historical Tables for 2007Released: January 29, 2009

Next Update: October 2009 DOE-EIA data source is http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epa/generation_state.xls

GENERATION (Megawatthours) % of

total

Combining gas and oil

(percentage)

Combining gas and oil (GWh)

DOE Data Base----------NOT USED AS IS

Coal-Ext LT PurchTS-Ext Firm

WAPA-Ext LT Hydro

not including hydro

Coal; 19,630 ; 54%

Coal-Ext LT Purch; 1,248; 3%

TS-Ext Firm; 768; 2%Nuclear; 11042 ; 30%

Gas/Oil; 1,146 ; 3%

Neb Hydro; 347; 1%

WAPA-Ext LT Hydro; 1,972; 5%Renewable; 240; 1%

(US DOE-EIA Data - 2007 and Nebraska Utility Data) - 36,394 GWh

Coal49%

Diesel2%

Gas22%

Nuclear19%

Hydro Renew6%

Wind Renew1%

Other Renew2%

USA's Energy Sources 2007

Coal60%

Diesel0%

Gas3%

Nuclear30%

Hydro Renew6%

Wind Renew1%

Other Renew0%

Nebraska's Energy Sources 2007

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document.xls Page 17

NPA-NREL Wind Integration StudyRough Estimation of 2018 Retail Revenues for SPP and 2005 Emissions and Associated CAP

DOE-EIA: 2007 from www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epa/epa_sprdshts.htm

States 2005 retail salesSPP Area Neb 2007 rateNE 28,248,400 1,775,337 6.28 100% 26,975,944 1.047 1.047 neb

Calculation of Rest of SPPRate for rest AR 47,054,891 3,273,009 6.96 46,164,923 1.019 0.044 of SPP KS 40,165,977 2,745,668 6.84 100% 39,024,283 1.029 0.247 in 2007: LA 79,566,937 6,678,767 8.39 77,389,170 1.028 0.093 7.59 MO 85,532,850 5,614,317 6.56 80,940,494 1.057 0.137

NM 22,267,394 1,655,946 7.44 20,638,951 1.079 0.023 OK 55,193,200 4,023,049 7.29 100% 53,707,102 1.028 0.339 TX 343,828,582 34,772,753 10.11 334,258,262 1.029 0.151

1.033 wtd avg SPP2018 estimation of Retail Sales esc 2.5%/yr 2018 Retail Revenues 2005 CO2 epa egrid million 2005

SPP Area 2018 GWh 2018 GWh 2018 rate $Million $Million Emissions #/MWh short tons MWh-egridproject all NE 36,447 36,447 8.25 3,005 3,005 NE NE 1,605.90 25.27 31,465,430

Rest of SPP 208,249 20,736 Rest of SPP10% remain* AR 8,968 9.13 818 AR AR 1,229.23 5.02 **project all KS 49,941 8.97 4,479 KS KS 1,894.92 43.45 45,862,690 21%% remain* LA 18,833 11.01 2,074 LA LA 1,175.49 10.07 **30% remain* MO 26,905 8.61 2,317 MO MO 1,594.67 19.52 **5% remain* NM 4,484 9.76 438 NM NM 1,935.90 3.95 **project all OK 68,626 9.56 6,563 OK OK 1,562.76 54.92 70,283,511 34% remain* TX 30,492 13.27 4,046 TX TX 1,355.41 18.80

TOTAL SPP incl Neb 244,696 244,696 9.70 23,742 23,742 BEFORE CO2 TOTAL CO2 Emission Est. 181.00 <--- 2005*ratios for remaining part of rest of SPP are weighted by generation capacities show in PROMOD 13.5% 156.57 <--- 2018 cap

7.39 (2007 - before carbon) **use 0.91 for 2005 busbar from 2018 retail

Retail Sales (MWh)

Retail Revs (k$)

Rate (cents/kWh)

Portion in SPP

growth 2007/ 2005

C18
Douglas R. Kallesen: from TRC4, item 3c
C19
Douglas R. Kallesen: from TRC4, item 3c
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NPA-NREL Wind Study - Estimation of SPP 2018 Free AllowancesPortion based on Retail Sales

From APPA spreadsheet:0.2122

From US EPA eGRID 2007 Version 1.1 (http://www.epa.gov/cleanenergy/documents/egridzips/eGRID2007V1_1_year05_SummaryTables.pdf) 66,012,413 SPP-North 2005 Net generation in MWh 148,379,742 SPP-South 2005 Net generation in MWh 214,392,155 16,079,412 Losses from Busbar to Retail meter assume----------> 7.50% 198,312,744 6,490,953 3.27% 204,803,697

28,248,400 Nebraska 2007 Retail Sales in MWh from DOE-EIA 233,052,097 49,447,927

Portion based on Emissions in SalesFrom US EPA eGRID 2007 Version 1.1 (http://www.epa.gov/cleanenergy/documents/egridzips/eGRID2007V1_1_year05_SummaryTables.pdf)

Neb SPP-North SPP-SouthCoal Gas Oil Coal Gas Oil Coal Gas Oil

share of sales 66.16% 2.55% 0.10% 78.26% 5.94% 1.60% 55.67% 37.41% 0.36%sales per type 18,689,706 721,323 28,022 47,785,678 3,629,189 974,663 76,411,895 51,348,030 495,614 alloc factor 0.3414 0.1460 0.2751 0.3414 0.1460 0.2751 0.3414 0.1460 0.2751

57,323,405 6,380,488 105,299 7,708 16,313,575 529,793 268,087 26,086,293 7,495,840 136,322

106,771,332

117,695,214

free allowances in 2018 per retail MWh sold in selected 3-year window averaged (based on metric tons)

SPP 2005 Net Generation in MWh, not including Neb

Estimated SPP 2005 Retail Sales in MWh, not including NebEstimated growth in SPP Retail Sales in MWh, not incl Neb from 2005 to 2007 at -->Estimated SPP 2007 Retail Sales in MWh, not including Nebraska

Estimated TOTAL SPP 2007 Retail Sales in MWh, including Nebraska (use 2007 as proxy for 2006-2008 avg)2018 Estimated free allowances to SPP including Neb for the portion based on retail sales (based on metric tons)

2018 Estimated free allowance to SPP including Neb for the portion based on emissions in sales (based on metric tons).

2018 Estimated TOTAL free allowances to SPP including Nebraska (based on metric tons of CO2)

2018 Estimated TOTAL free allowances to SPP including Nebraska (based on short tons of CO2)