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1 Financial return on investment in energy efficiency and renewable energies: a smart investment opportunity? Michele Calcaterra Roma - 12 Marzo ‘07

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Page 1: 0 Financial return on investment in energy efficiency and renewable energies: a smart investment opportunity? Michele Calcaterra Roma - 12 Marzo ‘07

1

Financial return on investment in

energy efficiency and renewable energies:

a smart investment opportunity?

Michele Calcaterra

Roma - 12 Marzo ‘07

Page 2: 0 Financial return on investment in energy efficiency and renewable energies: a smart investment opportunity? Michele Calcaterra Roma - 12 Marzo ‘07

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ECP is an Independent Financial Advisor, management owned, active since 1997 in Europe.

ECPI performs Innovative Portfolio Screening

ECPI uses a Proprietary but Transparent Technology: the “ECPI Screening Methodology” developed on client consensus/input, NGOs’ information flow, international treaties, academic studies and our International Advisory Board (see appendix).

We aim at capturing Corporate Intangible Value through 400+ screening tests

The results of our screening activity are an enhanced Capital Preservation and Alpha Generation

We produce Performance Benchmarks, advise Ethical Static/Dynamic CDOs, Hybrid Index structures and Funds of Hedge Funds.

E.Capital Partners and its full subsidiary ECPI

Page 3: 0 Financial return on investment in energy efficiency and renewable energies: a smart investment opportunity? Michele Calcaterra Roma - 12 Marzo ‘07

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ECPI Business Goals

Intangible Value Scouting and Alpha generation:

ECPI Alpha Index aims at scouting value in financial markets.

ECPI selects “Best in Class” companies by assessing their Intangible Value as an indicator of expected higher Alpha Returns.

Socially Responsible Investments and Capital Preservation:

By adding additional sector screens (Traditional SRI), ECPI methodology becomes an outstanding Credit Enhancement tool – 3 year 70pct Default Rate reduction.

ECPI is the European leader in SRI Advisory leveraging its Ethical Screening Methodology® as the underlying engine of SRI benchmarks and structured products.

ECPI performs MARS® – Manager’s Alpha Risk Scoring for Ethical Funds of Hedge Funds.

Page 4: 0 Financial return on investment in energy efficiency and renewable energies: a smart investment opportunity? Michele Calcaterra Roma - 12 Marzo ‘07

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European SRI market: a steadily growing trend. Background for Ren Energy

€ 68,28 billion AUM in Mutual Funds

Overall SRI Institutional market among European Investors has grown up to approximately € 1,033 trillion2

European SR Mutual Funds: 2001– 20051 Asset Under ManagementEuropean SR Mutual Funds: 2001– 20051 Asset Under Management

Currently 432 SR Mutual Funds

Strong trend since 1998, and growing.

European SR Mutual Funds: Number of Asset Management Product Lines (1984 – 2004)1European SR Mutual Funds: Number of Asset Management Product Lines (1984 – 2004)1

1Source: E.Capital Partners Fundwatcher “Trends in European SRI”, September 20042Source: Eurosif – Report 2006 “European SRI Study 2006”

432384

260

136

9772

5546261310

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

19,42421,430

23,587 24,100

68,280

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Mio

Page 5: 0 Financial return on investment in energy efficiency and renewable energies: a smart investment opportunity? Michele Calcaterra Roma - 12 Marzo ‘07

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ECPI Alpha Screening: Enhanced Positive Tests

Portfolio selection processPortfolio selection process

Global Investment Universe

Recommended High Alpha Candidates

Alpha Positive screening:Selection of the businesses with high standards

of corporate social and environmental responsibility

In order to capture Corporate Intangible Value

Positive criteria for the positive screening, enhanced by EcoValue21 test

Up to 450 sector sensitive environmental and social tests, with a customizable bias:

Product Process Environmental Impact Community Relations Diversity Human Resources Opportunistic Cross Border operations Balance Sheet Transparency Corporate Governance Initiatives

Forward-Looking Approach:In case of relevant news/facts we evaluate reiteration, reaction, malice, guilt, industry

custom of such companies, with a predictive goal

Page 6: 0 Financial return on investment in energy efficiency and renewable energies: a smart investment opportunity? Michele Calcaterra Roma - 12 Marzo ‘07

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SRI universe shows high stability and very low default rates

Ethical screening acts as an efficient positive filter: over 70% of defaults avoided

Corporate Defaults with Investment-Grade Ratings within One Year of Default (Moody’s)1Corporate Defaults with Investment-Grade Ratings within One Year of Default (Moody’s)1

Ethical investment universe of 1,700 eligible companies, analyzed and selected according to negative and positive criteria out of a total of more than 2,800 companies covered. Analysis over the 12-month period from 1st June 2003 to 1st September 2006

“Downgraded” companies are companies which used to be rated “ethical” but lost the ethical label and were then excluded from the ethical investment universe

Evaluation of the probability of “ethical downgrade” events within ECP ethical investment universe

Evaluation of the probability of “ethical downgrade” events within ECP ethical investment universe

1 Based on ECP’s coverage and ethical universe on default date. Full list presented in appendix

Page 7: 0 Financial return on investment in energy efficiency and renewable energies: a smart investment opportunity? Michele Calcaterra Roma - 12 Marzo ‘07

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… very accessible through Bloomberg menu ECPS <go>

Ethical Euro Corporate BondEthical Euro Corporate BondEthical indices monitored and published

Ethical indices monitored and published

Ethical Euro Index (Equity)Ethical Euro Index (Equity)Ethical Global Government Bond Index

Ethical Global Government Bond Index

Page 8: 0 Financial return on investment in energy efficiency and renewable energies: a smart investment opportunity? Michele Calcaterra Roma - 12 Marzo ‘07

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Renewable Energy: an inexhaustible source Large Net reserves (es: Solar Energy cannot be

exhausted)

Continuous Renew process (Biomass)

Bioenergy: Biodiesel, Biogas, Plant oil fuel. Can be obtained from biomass, in particular wood straw maize, sugar beet, oil-seed rape, biogas and plant oils. Its main advantages to be Co2-neutral.

Solar Power: Photovoltaic, Solar heating and Chemistry. Energy of the sun (nuclear fusion), which takes the form of electromagnetic radiation.

Water Power: Tidal and wave power, Ocean temperature gradient and Thermal energy. Energy of water currents, which can be converted into mechanical energy using suitable machines

Wind power: Is the kinetic energy produced by masses of air moving in the atmosphere.

Geothermal: Geothermal heat is the heat stored in the upper layer of the earth’s crust. It describes both the energy produced by or stored in the earth.

Fuel cells: A fuel cell is a voltaic cell that converts a continuous supply of fuel and an oxidising agent into usable electrical energy.

Renewable energy sources have the potential to replace fossil and nuclear energy sources

Renewable energy sources have the potential to replace fossil and nuclear energy sources

Page 9: 0 Financial return on investment in energy efficiency and renewable energies: a smart investment opportunity? Michele Calcaterra Roma - 12 Marzo ‘07

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Renewables Industry: from risk to opportunity

Renewable Energy

Industry &

Efficiency

From risk to opportunity— Sustainability

Companies & Governments1

— Capex in the industry— Policy on renewables

Current Risks— Energy Economics— Energy Security— Global Warming

Investors— Financing Providers— Participate in the next economic Boom

149 countries have policies on renewables in place that will foster rapid growth at clean-energy firms, including big emerging markets such as Brazil, China and India

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The benefits of strong and early action far outweigh the economic costs of not acting

Because climate change is a global problem, the answer must be international

Action on climate change will also create significant business opportunities, as new markets are created in low-carbon energy technologies and other low-carbon goods and services

Latest warning: the Stern Review (Though criticized…)

Stern Review is available at: www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/independent_reviews/stern_review_economics_climate_change/stern_review_report.cfm.

Page 11: 0 Financial return on investment in energy efficiency and renewable energies: a smart investment opportunity? Michele Calcaterra Roma - 12 Marzo ‘07

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Why Investing in Renewable Energy: scenario

“At Today’s rates of consumption, oil desposits should last another 30 years or so and gas approximately 70 years. Coal will last rather longer – about 200 Years”1

The increased marketability of renewable energy: the use of new technology has led to steadily falling prices.

A fuel cell power plant has fallen in price by more than 90% in the last 10 years.2

Wind energy as a proportion of totalenergy production:3

· Denmark: 20%· Germany: 6%· USA: already 1.5 million households

1) 2) Heinz Deubelbeiss: Alternative Energiequellen stillen Energiedurst(Alternative energy sources quench the thirst for energy), emagazine, 25.04.053) Jonathan Bernstein: Alternative Energy – Time to invest? ETFZone.com, 15.06.05

Page 12: 0 Financial return on investment in energy efficiency and renewable energies: a smart investment opportunity? Michele Calcaterra Roma - 12 Marzo ‘07

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Why Investing in Renewable Energy: growth forecast

Analysts confidently predict the clean-energy business will grow by 20-30% a year for a decade.The Economist, November 16th, 2006

Solar Energy, Wind Energy and Fuel Cells will probably grow from about 16$ billion in global revenues in 2004 to more than 100 $ billion by 2014 according to a report released by Clean Edge (an energy research and publishing firm)

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Total investment going into clean energy at $63 billion this year, up from $49 billion last year and just $30 billion in 2004 (estimate by New Energy Finance)1

In light of the longterm risks of investing in conventional energy systems, institutional investors, such as the California Public Employees Retirement System (CalPERS), have begun directing larg blocks of funds to the environmental sector, including to renewable energy, much of it under the rubric of sustainable or socially responsible investing2

In November 2005, Goldman Sachs committed to investing more than $1 billion in renewable energy projects, including biofuels, solar power, and wind energy2

Investment in the field by venture capitalists and private-equity firms has quadrupled in the past two years, from some $500m in 2004 to almost $2 billion so far this year1

Sustainable Investment: a growing trend

1 The Economist, November 16°, 20062 From American Energy, The World Watch Institute, September 2006

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Global Share of Renewable Energy

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Sector Validation from ECPI Strong Financial results Very Good liquidity (Relative

High Market Cap) Good Rating from fundamental

analysis

ECPI® Renewable Energy Global Tradeable

Performance & BreakdownPerformance & Breakdown

FeaturesFeatures

24.36%

1.80%

27.53%

17.67%

3.76%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

2003 2004 2005 2006 YTD

Average

Since 2003

Annualized Volatility

16.80%

700

900

1100

13001500

1700

1900

2100

gen-03 gen-04 gen-05 gen-06 gen-07

ECPI® Reneable Energy Global MSCI World

Country

DENMARK 6.93%

ITALY 9.76%

J APAN 13.77%

SPAIN 15.03%

UNITED STATES 33.24%

UNITED KINGDOM 15.29%

NORWAY 5.99%

Tot. 100%

Sector

Basic Materials 4.92%

Consumer, Non-cyclical 3.63%

Energy 11.81%

Industrial 31.16%

Technology 13.99%

Utilities 29.44%

Consumer, Cyclical 5.04%

Tot. 100%

Number of Constituents

Eligibility Monitoring

Component Weights

Minimum 6 months ADV

Index Rebalancing Frequency

Currency of Calculation

Average Market Cap (EUR bio)

Largest Market Cap (EUR bio)

Smallest Market Cap (EUR bio)

Highest Index Value (since 2003)

Lowest Value (since 2003) 911.64

16.82

55.91

4.16

1967.79

EURO

Annual (1th of October)

20

Equal

Daily

EUR 10 mln

As of 22 January 2007

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ECPI® Renewable Energy Index

Structured Notes ETFs Index Trackers

By..International Investment Banks and Asset Managers

Investment OpportunitiesInvestment Opportunities

Page 17: 0 Financial return on investment in energy efficiency and renewable energies: a smart investment opportunity? Michele Calcaterra Roma - 12 Marzo ‘07

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Corso Italia, 13

20122 Milano

Tel: +39 02 80509813

Fax: +39 02 88181210

www.e-cpartners.com

Bloomberg: ECPS <GO>

Reuters: ECAPITAL

Disclaimer

© COPYRIGHT 2006 by ECPI S.r.l. (wholly owned by E. Capital Partners S.p.a.) all rights reserved. All information contained herein is copyrighted in the name of ECPI S.r.l., and none of such information may be copied or otherwise reproduced, repackaged, further transmitted, transferred, disseminated, redistributed or resold or stored for subsequent use for any such purpose, in whole or in part, in any form or manner or by any means whatsoever, by any person without ECPI S.r.l.’ prior written consent. All information contained herein are obtained from sources believed to be accurate and reliable. Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error as well as other factors, however, such information is provided “as is” without warranty of any kind and ECPI S.r.l., in particular, makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy, timeliness, completeness, merchantability or fitness for any particular purpose of any such information. PLEASE SEE ADDITIONAL IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER ON THE LAST PAGE OF THIS REPORT.

This document has been prepared by ECPI Srl (wholly owned by E.Capital Partners S.p.a.) as part of its internal research activity. The information provided herein and, in particular, the data contained in this research report are taken from information available to the public, and refer to the date of this document. While the opinions and information contained in this document are based on sources believed to be reliable and in good faith, ECPI has not independently verified the contents of this document. All information contained herein is obtained by from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable. Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error as well as other factors, however, such information is provided “as is” without warranty of any kind and ECPI, in particular, makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy, timeliness, completeness, merchantability or fitness for any particular purpose of any such information. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by ECPI nor shall any of ECPI or its directors, managers, officers or employees have any liability whatsoever (in negligence or otherwise), as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained in this document. Neither ECPI, nor any of its directors, managers, officers or employees, accepts any liability whatsoever (in negligence or otherwise), and accordingly no liability whatsoever shall be assumed by, or shall be placed on ECPI or any of its directors, managers, officers or employees, for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection with this document.Any opinions, forecasts or estimates contained herein constitute a judgement as at the date of this document, and there can be no assurance that the future results of the Company or of the Company Group and/or any future events will be consistent with such opinions, forecasts or estimates. Any information herein is subject to change, update or amendment without notice subsequent to the date of this document, with no undertaking by ECPI to notify of such change, update or amendment any recipient of this document.

ECPI publishes researches on a regular basis. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information. All the information contained herein is copyrighted in the name of ECPI, and none of such information may be copied or otherwise reproduced, repackaged, further transmitted, transferred, disseminated, redistributed or resold, or stored for subsequent use for any such purpose, In whole or in part, in any form or manner or by any means whatsoever, by any person without ECPI’ prior written consent. This document is not, nor may it be construed as to constitute, an offer for sale or subscription of or a solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for any financial instrument. Accordingly, this document may not be used as a solicitation or an offer for sale or subscription, and any solicitation or offer shall be made only in accordance with all applicable laws and regulation, including, whenever applicable, the filing of a prospectus with the relevant Authorities. ECPI does not perform asset management activity. No part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this report. This publication has been prepared on behalf of ECPI solely for information purposes. Additional information available on request.

Paolo Sardi – CEO & Partner

[email protected]