0 the future of the hfcs market influences on demand
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The Future of The Future of the HFCS the HFCS MarketMarket
Influences on Influences on DemandDemand
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The Future of the HFCS The Future of the HFCS MarketMarket
• U.S. HFCS demand: flat to slightly U.S. HFCS demand: flat to slightly decliningdeclining
• HFCS in Mexico: potential growthHFCS in Mexico: potential growth
• Alternatives for grind: less ethanolAlternatives for grind: less ethanol
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0
5
10
15
20
25
U.S. CANADA MEXICO
19.019.9
20.2
19.019.4
20.6 20.3 20.1 20.0
Source: McKeany-Flavell
Billion Pounds Dry
North American HFCS North American HFCS DemandDemand
19.6
* Estimate
70% of U.S. HFCS
Used in Beverages
DIETING 101Stay away from empty-calorie foods
such as regular carbonated soft
drinks.
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U.S. HFCS Demand: Steady U.S. HFCS Demand: Steady DeclineDecline
14.5
15.0
15.5
16.0
16.5
17.0
17.5
18.0
18.5
Billion
Pou
nd
s (
dry
basis
)
* Estimate
From its peak in 2002, total HFCS demand has fallen 2.27 billion lbs., or 12.4%
American Heart Association: Even
moderate weight excess increases the
risk of death, particularly in adults
30-64.
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U.S. Case Sales (Volume) U.S. Case Sales (Volume) of CSDof CSD
2007 2008
Coca-Cola Down 2% Down 8%
Pepsi Flat Down 6%
Cott Down 4.8% Down 11%*
*As of 2008 Q2 report.
Foreign Sales Offset Coke’s Weak
U.S. Cola Sales
Non-Cola Bev Sales on the Rise at Home
U.S. CSD Consumption
* Estimate
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Consumers Are Hesitant to Consumers Are Hesitant to SpendSpend
Source: USDA ERS, Congressional Budget Office
3.26
2.54
-0.20
0.66
1.57
2.69
2.121.94
1.12
-2.00
2.97
0.40
$32,000
$34,000
$36,000
$38,000
$40,000
$42,000
$44,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009*
Baseline 2005 $
-3.00
-2.00
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
Percentage
Per Capita GDP Annual Growth Rate * Estimate
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Is Fructose
Making You Fat?
Most Consumers Don’t Know How
Much HFCS They Eat
American M
edical Association
Says HFCS the Sam
e as Sucrose
Consumers Are Consumers Are ConcernedConcerned
?
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Third-most used claim in product launches in 2007 and fourth-most popular for beverages
Consumers Want Natural FoodsConsumers Want Natural Foods
Bottled Water Consumption in U.S.
* EstimateSources: Mintel, Beverage World Annual Report
Al l Natu
ral
Al l Natu
ral
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Nearly two-thirds of Americans are concerned about the safety of artificial sweeteners
Consumers Explore Other Consumers Explore Other SweetenersSweeteners
2003 2007
With Agave
56 176
HFCS-Free 6 146
New Products
Sources: Datamonitor, Mintel
FDA Decides HFCS Is
Natural Sweetener
HFCS Does Not Occur in
Nature, Says Center for
Science in the Public Interest
FDA Oks
Reb
iana
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302
266.6
279.3
290.3
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Refined Sugar HFCS Total Nutritive Sweeteners
U.S. Population (in millions)
Per Capita Nutritive Sweetener Deliveries
Pou
nd
s
Consumers Return to Sugar in
Search of Less-Processed Food
Americans Still Like SweetAmericans Still Like Sweet
* Estimate
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12 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Dept of Commerce
Demographic Profiles
Hispanic – Young, increasing affluence, may favor nutritive sweeteners
Asian – Increasing affluence, may favor non-nutritive sweeteners
Who Buys Sweetened Who Buys Sweetened ProductsProducts
% of Population 1980 2000 2020
Hispanic 6.5% 12.6% 18.0%
Black 11.6% 12.3% 12.9%
Asian/Pacific Islander
1.5% 3.9% 5.0%
White 79.9% 70.4% 62.5%
The 12-19 age group consumes the most sweeteners
Minority Purchasing Power May
Reach $4.3 Trillion by 2045
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% of people who regularly buy sugar-free products ...
24% 26%
34% 38%37%
48%
18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
Sugar-Free Appeals to Aging Sugar-Free Appeals to Aging PopulationPopulation
People 65+ made up 12.4% of the population in 2000 and are expected to make up 20% by 2030.
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14Source: Beverage Marketing Corporation
Carbonated Soft Drink Carbonated Soft Drink IndustryIndustry
Market Share: Regular Nutritive CSD vs. Diet
* Estimate
2008: Diet makes up over 30% of total
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Future of HFCS CapacityFuture of HFCS Capacity
• No major capacity changes over No major capacity changes over the next ten years.the next ten years.
• Wild card: Tate & Lyle Fort Dodge, Wild card: Tate & Lyle Fort Dodge, Iowa facility may add HFCS Iowa facility may add HFCS capacity – but probably not before capacity – but probably not before 2011/12.2011/12.
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Total HFCS
0
5
10
15
20
25
Billion
Pou
nds
(Dry
).
Total Capacity
Total Demand
Source: McKeany-Flavell
Includes Canada and Mexico. Assumed capacity expansion: 1% annually through 2003 due to de-bottlenecking. * Estimate
Theoretical HFCS Production Theoretical HFCS Production Capacity vs. DemandCapacity vs. Demand
Capacity Utilization
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Capacity Utilization (%)
Industry expansion for Mexico
Cargill stops HFCS production at Dayton,
Ohio, then shutters Dimmitt, Tex. and Decatur, Ala.
Cargill re-opens Dayton, Ohio
and Decatur, Ala.
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MEXICO - Estimated HFCS ImportsMEXICO - Estimated HFCS Imports
Source: Mexican Trade Sources and McKeany-Flavell
Thousand Metric Tons
*Estimate
Price of sugar within Mexico makes it difficult for U.S. HFCS to compete
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Wet Milling Industry Wet Milling Industry Compensates for Slowdown Compensates for Slowdown
in HFCS Demandin HFCS Demand• Industry ConsolidationIndustry Consolidation
• Capacity ReductionCapacity Reduction
• Grind DiversificationGrind Diversification– Ethanol, specialty starches, dextrose Ethanol, specialty starches, dextrose
feedstock, crystalline fructose, bioplasticsfeedstock, crystalline fructose, bioplastics
– About 2.0 billion lbs. (wet) of HFCS grind About 2.0 billion lbs. (wet) of HFCS grind reallocated to other products since 2002reallocated to other products since 2002
– Demand down for these productsDemand down for these products
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2008/09 Crop Estimate = 12.101 Billion BushelsWet Milling Usage by Product Line % of Crop
Fuel Ethanol = 3.600 Billion Bushels* 29.8%
HFCS = 588 Million Bushels 4.9%
Starch = 175 Million Bushels 1.4%
Corn Syrup & Dextrose = 303 Million Bushels 2.5%
Cereal and other products = 226 Million Bushels 1.9%
Industrial Alcohol = 126 Million Bushels 1.0%
Beverage Alcohol = 25 Million Bushels 0.2%
Total = 5.043 Billion Bushels 41.7%*Includes Dry Milling
In 1975, corn refiners used 5% of the corn crop
Source: USDA and CRA
U.S. Corn Wet Milling Usage by U.S. Corn Wet Milling Usage by Product LineProduct Line
Numbers may not add due to rounding
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*Corn starch-based ethanol
Biofuels Mandate by Biofuels Mandate by TypeType
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Ethanol Supply/Demand/Capacity Ethanol Supply/Demand/Capacity UtilizationUtilization
Demand Domestic Supply Utilization
1999 1.5 1.7 88%
2000 1.7 1.9 89%
2001 1.9 2.2 86%
2002 2.1 2.5 84%
2003 2.8 2.9 97%
2004 3.6 3.7 97%
2005 4.0 4.3 93%
2006 5.0 5.4 93%
2007 6.5 7.5 87%
2008 9.0 11.5 78%
2009 10.0 12.5 80%
2010 12.5 14.0 89%
2011 13.5 15.0 90%
2012 14.5 15.0 97%
(Billion Gallons)
Source: McKeany-Flavell estimates
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$0.50$1.00$1.50$2.00$2.50$3.00$3.50$4.00
Ethanol (CBOT) Unleaded/RBOB (NYMEX)
Ethanol vs. RBOB Gasoline Ethanol vs. RBOB Gasoline PricingPricing
$ p
er
Gallon
Note: as of Dec. 29, 2006, unleaded gas contract replaced by RBOB contract on NYMEX
RBOB = Reformulated blendstock for oxygenate blending
Ethanol trading at premium to RBOB gas reduces blender incentive to use ethanol
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Key Factors that Impacted Key Factors that Impacted HFCS Negotiations for 2009HFCS Negotiations for 2009
• U.S. HFCS demand: flat to slightly U.S. HFCS demand: flat to slightly decliningdeclining
• HFCS in Mexico: potential growth?HFCS in Mexico: potential growth?
• Alternatives for grind: fewer options Alternatives for grind: fewer options - less ethanol demand- less ethanol demand
• HFCS prices at 20% to 25% discount HFCS prices at 20% to 25% discount to sugarto sugar