00 e titel rz 3 - deutsche-boerse.com · waves business journal deutsche börse group 1585 1/09 eur...

Waves

Business Journal Deutsche Börse Group 1585

1/0

9EU

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BUSINESS CYCLE Can long waves explain the global economy?

CRISISWhat’s next, Dr. Doom?

CLIMATEDoes global warming alsooffer opportunities?

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00_e_Titel_RZ_3 09.03.2009 18:34 Uhr Seite 1**admin **Mac 03:private:var:tmp:folders.501:TemporaryItems:

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00_e_U2U3_RZ 09.03.2009 16:41 Uhr Seite 1**admin **Mac 03:private:var:tmp:folders.501:TemporaryItems:

06 CYCLESEighty years ago, Russian econ-omist Nikolai Kondratiev out-lined an economic wave theory ofgrand supercycles. Having beenignored for decades, Kondratiev’stheory is enjoying a revival ofinterest due to the financialcrisis.

1585Bad banks, bonuses, backing … certain words can create major

waves in the markets. Artistically enhanced on screen, the

acoustical display, as depicted on the cover, looks prettier than

the real-world impact. This issue is all about waves—

and the question of when smoother sailing might return.

04 1014162126313234

Efficient market since 1585: Deutsche Börse Group

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22 CRISISNouriel Roubini is one of the few econo-mists in the world who warned early on of a pending financial and economic crisis. Inan exclusive interview with 1585 conductedin New York, “Dr. Doom”, as he was deri-sively known, talked to us about what’s nextfor the global economy and what setbacksinvestors may have to reckon with.

28 CLIMATETornados, flooding, drought… global warming has par-ticularly sharp implicationsfor insurers. But the indus-try is both proactive and cau-tiously positive on the issue.A look behind the scenes at multinational reinsurerMunich Re.

NEWS/MASTHEADASTRONOMY A radio telescope peers back into the early days of the universeSPOT ON La Ola—the history of a mass movementBUILDING ACOUSTICS Between vineyard and shoeboxFACTS & FIGURES Waves by the numbersINSIGHT Making waves PHOTO STORY Wave of light and shadow by Balthasar BurkhardGUIDE Gibraltar, financial center poised between two seasNICE TO HAVE Product ideas that make waves

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4 NEWS

Expansion wave. Deutsche Börse is increasing

its investment in the growth markets of Asia,

where a branch office was opened in December.

In addition, Eurex opened offices in Tokyo and

Hong Kong, with another opening in Singapore

upcoming in July. Clearstream also has several

offices in Asia, where it clears stock trades for

foreign investment banks, particularly in China.

“That leaves us fairly well positioned for the

time being,” says Roland Schwinn, Director of

Business Development, Asia & Middle East for

Deutsche Börse. “Mainly because this enables

us to operate more effectively in Beijing, Tokyo,

Hong Kong and Singapore, along with other Asian

markets, than if based in Europe.” The ongoing

financial crisis changes nothing in that respect,

says Schwinn: “Asia will continue to grow—

crisis or no crisis. We have seen in the past that

those markets recover faster.” The next step has

already been decided: the Korea Stock Exchange

in Seoul has granted Eurex worldwide rights to

list, trade and clear derivates on Korea’s

KOSPI-200 equity index starting in 2010,

allowing international investors to trade KOSPI-

200 options while European markets are open.

These are already among the world’s most liquid

derivatives.

SERVER TOSTARBOARD

Computing wave. Alongside freighters and

cruise ships, data centers too will soon be

traversing the world’s seas. Search engine

giant Google has plans to put servers in float-

ing container pontoons out in the ocean. But

that’s not all: the mainframes are to be self-

powering. Water wheels located on the sides

convert wave energy into electrical power.

Diesel generators power up whenever the

waters are calm. Cooling systems are thus

rendered redundant, as the cold seawater

prevents overheating. These maritime data

centers would not only be environmentally

friendly, but mobile as well. It is still unclear,

however, when these seagoing server farms

will actually be going online. So far Google

has only filed for a single US patent applica-

tion, but testing of the wave power genera-

tors is supposed to be already underway.

URL: www.google.com

Dieting wave. With at least 30 percent of the country’s population

overweight, Japan’s government is taking action. Munici-

palities are now measuring weight and body

fat and taking blood for all individuals

aged 40 to 74—and prescribing weight

loss regimens accordingly. Businesses

are supporting the initiative, with

Toyota for example recording

on company records the

calorie count of food

ordered in the canteen.

Maybe a sensible move, as

companies have to pay higher

health insurance premiums

for overweight employees. Other

countries might do well to adopt

similar national diet schemes,

such as the US and Germany, the

world’s and Europe’s most obese

countries respectively. According to

the WHO, obesity is responsible for

seven percent of health care expenditure.

URL: www.who.int

Japan: Trim Nation

DEUTSCHE BÖRSE GOES EAST

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5NEWS

1585 ISSUE 1/09

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MASTHEADPublisher: Deutsche Börse AG, Neue Börsenstraße 1, 60487 Frankfurt am Main, URL: www.deutsche-boerse.com, e-mail: [email protected] Deutsche Börse Group main editorial office: Ulrich Meißner (legally responsible for content), Andreas von Brevern, Ralph Kühn Publishing house: corps. Corporate Publishing Services GmbH,Kasernenstraße 69, 40213 Düsseldorf corps executive board: Holger Löwe, Wilfried Lülsdorf Editorial department: (Man.) Florian Flicke and Christian Pietschner; Frank Burger, Daniel Ferling, Birgit Gehrmann, Mirko Hackmann, Bernd Hettlage, Katharina Hodes, Christine Mattauch, Axel vom Schemm Publications manager: Jan Leiskau Advertising manager: RalfZawatzky, e-mail: [email protected] Art direction: formwechsel.de Picture editorial department: Sabine Schmidt English adaptation: 24translate GmbH, HamburgPrinted by: Buersche Druckerei Neufang KG, Gelsenkirchen Reproduction: ORT Studios, Berlin Order no.: 1010-2797All rights reserved. Reproduction and use subject to prior written permission. ©2009 Deutsche Börse Group

ORIGINAL QUOTE

“Technological waves areeasy to see coming, you just have to pick theones you want to surfon. If your decision ismade wisely, the wave’spower will slowly unfold,carrying you quite far.” Steve Jobs, founder of Apple

Dozing before takeoffTravel wave. Here’s a sleeper of an idea that is

a hit with frequent flyers: two ‘napcap’ cabins

are now located in the transit area of Munich

Airport giving jetlagged business travellers a

place to rest, stretch out, have a snooze and

recover their energy. Or work undisturbed: in

addition to a bed, these comfortable pods also

provide a mini-desk, electrical power, and Web

access. The idea was developed by students at

Munich Technical University, who turned it

into a start-up company.

URL: www.napcabs.com

RISK METRICS

Security wave. Can risks be accurately quan-

tified, measured and anticipated accordingly?

They can: the new SENSIS data product from

Deutsche Börse—Market Data & Analytics deliv-

ers objective data for the systematic measure-

ment of securities risk. “It makes it possible for

investors to easily identify securities on a day-to-

day basis that unnecessarily elevate portfolio risk,

without having to invest in expensive analytical

services or software,” says product developer

Christian Libor. “In short: SENSIS helps investors

rapidly assess the wave they are riding on.”

URL: www.deutsche-boerse.com/sensis

Adult

Internet

Products

24%

18%

18%

11%

6%

10%

Health

Scams

Financial

7%Fraud

6%

Leisure

Flood of spam yet to recede: according to Symantec Corp., some 80 percent of all e-mail sent

worldwide is spam. Srizbi, the world’s biggest spammer, distributes 60 billion e-mails per day.

A profitable business model—as unbelievable as it is. A study by the universities of Berkeley

and San Diego estimates that the company probably generates annual sales of 3.5 million

US dollars despite only one sale per 12.5 million spam e-mails sent. The next wave of spam

ads is already rolling. “Spammers have discovered opportunity in the financial crisis. Too-good-

to-be-true credit offers are up sharply as a category of spam,” relates Candid Wüest, a

Symantec Threat Researcher. All one can do is activate one’s spam filter—and one’s common

sense. A well-chosen e-mail address helps too. British IT expert Richard Clayton found that

e-mail accounts starting with the letters Q, Y and Z receive substantially less junk mail.

Still fifth place: Experts predict financial spam tsunami

Source: Symantec Corp.

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6 THEORY

RECURRING CYCLES The 80-year-old andnever fully accepted idea of a Russian economist is making a comeback: according to its disciples, Nikolai Kondratiev’s “long wave theory” of economic activity points the way out of the current crisis. They too are currently experiencing a boom of their own.

rik Händeler has been a very busy manrecently. He is currently editing the sev-

enth edition of his book “Die Geschichte derZukunft“ (The history of the future), is get-ting numerous requests for talks and articlesfor daily newspapers. It’s a good feeling: Hän-deler has been researching and writing aboutKondratiev’s long wave theory for the past 15years and frequently met with rejection. Un-til now. “Since the economic crisis, I havefound more of an audience,” says the 39-year-old economics author.

This is because in the current recession, potential explanations and solutions that were

scarcely regarded and even mocked, are tak-ing centre stage. The long wave theory, basedon the work of Russian economist NikolaiKondratiev from the 1920s, is one of these. At the heart of it is the assumption that eco-nomic activity follows inevitable and recur-ring cycles of upturns and downturns that lasta good 50 years—a determinist view thatstands in stark contrast to current mainstreameconomic theory. For authors like Erik Händeler and others like him, however, thedisputed theory points to ways out of the current malaise. Great innovations in envi-ronmental technology, biotechnology andhealthcare are to trigger the start of a new

Kondratiev cycle, which, they say, is justaround the corner.

Driven by the nature of the economyNikolai Kondratiev himself looked to the past:in particular, he studied the development ofprice statistics in England or Germany over aperiod of some 140 years and took the values asmeasured values for economic activity. He ob-served regular waves that repeated themselvesat intervals of between 40 and 60 years. Eachof these began with an upturn and ended witha recession. Kondratiev concluded: “The longwaves are driven by factors that form the verynature of the capitalist economy.”

E

2nd Kondratiev1840s1st Kondratiev 1890s 3rd Kondratiev

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7

1585 ISSUE 1/09

Kondratiev published his theory in 1926. Adecade later it was taken up by the Austriancompetition guru Josef Schumpeter. Henamed the waves “Kondratiev cycles” in ho-nour of their inventor and developed themodel further: Schumpeter saw basic inno-vations such as the steam engine and the rail-way as the triggers for each upturn. Accordingto him, the first Kondratiev cycle began withthe steam engine, the second with the railway,the third with electrical engineering andchemistry. Mass motorization initiated thefourth cycle and information technology thefifth. Whether this wave will continue or iscoming to an end, when a sixth Kondratiev

will begin and what will characterize it is amatter of dispute.

A reassuring message with no proof?But let us return to the question of whetherthe long wave theory is tenable. Its appeal isprimarily based on two facts. On the onehand, complex upheavals in the past such asindustrialization and the Great Depressioncan be explained very simply—they werebound to happen. On the other hand, the the-ory contains the comforting message: thingsalways brighten up again—no matter howbad a crisis is, things will inevitably start look-ing up at some point.

But why? The theory lacks a convincing argu-ment in favour of inevitable cycles. A hand-ful of historical examples makes it difficult toinfer a universally valid cyclical pattern. In ad-dition, modern economists criticize the factthat Kondratiev’s model was primarily basedon the prices indexes, which does not enableany conclusion to be drawn as to overall investments and growth forces. And statisti-cians complain that the alleged periodicity ofthe time series could be the result of a mathe-matical error, the so-called Slutzky effect. Itcauses the applied process of trend adjust-ment and data smoothing to produce the cycles in the first place.

5 th Kondratiev1940s 1980s4th Kondratiev

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world, was the idea once again taken into consider-ation, though without being recognized by themacroeconomic mainstream.

Erik Händeler experienced this first-hand when, after studying economics, he was unable to find adoctoral advisor for a dissertation about Kondratiev.“The long wave theory simply has no place in offi-cial economic debate. Obviously, a Keynesian hatesto hear anyone side with Kondratiev and argue thatfactors like prices, interest rates, wages, money sup-plies and inflation are not the cause of economic development but its consequence.”

Environment, biotechnology, health?Händeler was spurred on by the rejection. For a goodone and a half decades, he has dedicated himself tothe ostracized Russian, has written several booksabout his ideas, holds a around 60 lectures a year,works with prominent people such as trend re-searcher Mathias Horx and is delighted that inter-est in Kondratiev is suddenly taking root.

He is finally finding a large audience for his theory:a sixth Kondratiev cycle with a booming economyand rapidly increasing employment lies ahead, provided that the power for basic innovation is employed in the right field—the health sector. “Weneed to increase the productivity of our knowledgeconsiderably. To do so, however, everyone must beable to employ their knowledge for as long and asefficiently as possible. But this is only possible if they are healthy and remain so. We therefore needto completely restructure the health service to focus on preserving health, individual responsibil-ity, provision and increasing awareness.”

THEORY

„For the past twelve years, I have been saying that structures

need to be changed to prevent the

crisis from coming ...“Erik Händeler

?And even Schumpeter’s version of the Kondratievcycles, which focuses on basic innovations, oftenmeets with little enthusiasm. Rolf Kroker, Head ofEconomic Policy and Social Policy at the Institut derdeutschen Wirtschaft Köln (Institute of the Ger-man Economy in Cologne) explains why: “Firstly,innovations are usually a continuous process, not asudden phase. Secondly, one of their characteristicsis their unpredictability—according to the Kon-dratiev cycle, by contrast, they are supposed to occur every 50 years or so.”

However, what can be predicted fairly accurately iswhen the long wave theory itself will experience arevival: in times of crisis, when people want to believe in promises of salvation. Thus, during theeconomic miracle, the Kondratiev cycle was dis-missed as a historical quirk. Only in the 1970s and1980s, when the oil crisis and growing unemploy-ment produced the first cracks in the idyllic Western


Economists like to make waves: many of Kondratiev’s colleagues also see them as the perfect explanatorymodel.

Thus, in 1862, French physicianand economist Clement Juglar described a seven- to eleven-yearcycle which he based on the development of gross domesticproduct (GDP), capital expendi-ture, inflation and unemploymentin the USA, France and the UnitedKingdom. The existence of Juglercycles is widely acknowledged today,with capital expenditure cycles in par-ticular being characterized by the term.

The South African statistician and bullion deal-er Joseph Kitchin described a considerablyshorter cycle lasting three to four years in the1920s. He investigated the course of whole-sale prices and interest rates in the USA andthe United Kingdom from 1899 to 1922.The explanation for fluctuations: when eco-nomic development is favourable, companiesbuild up their supplies significantly, when development is unfavourable, they reducethem significantly. Today, Kitchin cycles arestill used in business management to assessproduction and sales planning and stock keep-ing.

A third exponent is American Simon Kuznets,who published his theory of so-called long swings or Kuznets cycles in 1958 and received the Nobel Prizefor Economics in 1971. The cycles identified byKuznets last around 15 to 23 years and are based onthe accumulation of means of production and the con-struction time and useful life of real estate.

1585 ISSUE 1/09

Leo A. Nefiodow, too, sees the health market as thekey area for the sixth Kondratiev cycle. Like Hän-deler, the 69-year-old economist and former mem-ber of the “Our future economy” working party ofthe Club of Rome sees basic innovations as the keyelement in the long wave theory. Yet, although Nefiodow’s potential candidates for the sixth Kon-dratiev cycle include biotechnology and the envi-ronmental market, he ascribes such vast growth potential to the health sector that he believes the return of full employment to be a possibility: “Inthe USA between 2001 and 2007, every second newwork place created was in the health sector. That ispossible in every developed country on earth.”

“You just have to look”You just have to set the right course, he believes. ButLeo A. Nefiodow and Erik Händeler feel like lonevoices in the wilderness. Although their hypothesesare getting more attention, they are not consistent-ly implemented. “My findings have been publishedfor a long time,” says Nefiodow, “you just have tolook”. “For the past twelve years, I have been sayingthat structures need to be changed to prevent thecrisis from coming,” says Händeler, “and now it ishere.”

Nonetheless, the two Kondratiev experts are notthreatened with the fate of their predecessor: in1926, Kondratiev proved that capitalist systemswere not inevitably doomed to collapse but can renew themselves in periods of crisis by means ofthe powers of the market; a discovery that createdquite a stir and, unfortunately for Kondratiev, washeard by Josef Stalin. The dictator had the economistshot a few years later as a counter-revolutionary.

Kondratiev & Co.

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eople dying of thirst in the desert could hardlyhave been happier: water, there’s water! In the

middle of December, a team of scientists led by Vio-lette Impellizzeri from the Max-Planck-Institut fürRadioastronomie (MPIfR: Max Planck Institute forRadio Astronomy) discovered water. But not justanywhere. Their desert makes the Sahara and Gobilook like wetlands. For they discovered water in themiddle of MG J0414+0534, a quasar from the earlydays of the universe—and 11.3 billion light yearsaway from any oasis.

It was a real coup and came right at the start of theUN’s International Year of Astronomy. The molec-ular cloud that they discovered is the most distantwater ever detected. And it was found with what is,by scientific standards, an ancient instrument: the37-year-old, 100-meter (109-yard) radio telescopeat the MPlfR in Effelsberg near Bonn.

A precisely constructed colossusLike a UFO that has just landed, the white 3,200-ton (7,000,000-pound) steel monster nestles in avalley in the hills. The surface of the fully movableparabolic reflector measures 7,850 square meters(84,497 square feet)—as much as a football pitch.Nevertheless, only a tiny humming noise can be

P

THE RADIO EYEIt doesn’t hear radio waves. It sees them. The 100-meter (109-yard) radio telescope near Bonn cansee right back to the universe’s infancy. One pixel is enough to peer billions of light years into space—unless an astronaut happens to be making a phone call on the moon.

10 ASTRONOMY

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1585 AUSGABE 1/09

A long look back: A depiction of the quasar where the radiotelescope in Effelsberg detectedwater—eleven billion light yearsaway.

21DUFTSTOFFE 11ASTRONOMY


12 ASTRONOMY

heard when this giant is turning. This is thanks to itsextremely precise construction: a sophisticatedarray of pipes on its back ensures that its surfaceregains its shape after each turn. A triumph overgravity: despite its mass, the reflector deviates amaximum of 0.45 millimeters (0.02 inches) fromthe ideal parabolic shape. And even this differencecan be reduced considerably using a new secondaryreflector. “Our telescope is a perfectly balanced mas-terpiece of German engineering,” says Dr. NorbertJunkes, MPIfR spokesperson. As a comparison: theworld’s largest radio telescope in Green Bank, WestVirginia measures only two meters (2.2 yards) morein diameter but weighs more than twice as much.

Earth’s natural laws apply in space tooIts performance is, however, even more impressivethan its vital statistics. The discovery of water wasonly the latest in a long line of successes: in the sum-mer of 2008, MPIfR scientists proved that one of thefundamental natural constants in physics, the rela-tionship between the mass of protons and electrons,is almost exactly the same six billion light yearsaway. In other words, they proved that natural lawsvalid on Earth also apply in space. And of the over200 supernova remnants in the Milky Way, 40 ofthem were discovered from Effelsberg. Or a littlecloser to home, the drift of continental plates can bemeasured down to the millimeter in Effelsberg.

Looking at the control room reveals little of whatthe telescope can do. The observatory’s hall is muchmore informative: a radio plan of the galactic planemeasuring six meters (6.6 yards) in length can beseen here. 42 supernova remnants are visible on it.Junkes, who helped to discover four of them duringhis student days, taps his favourite region with hisindex finger—a yellow hook in the centre of theMilky Way. Officially it is called G54.4-0.3: “It is

absolutely fascinating,” the astronomer says enthu-siastically, “a supernova remnant in the middle of amolecular cloud. And a baby station: lots and lots ofnew stars are born here. You can see the connectionbetween birth and death, all concentrated in oneplace!” Junkes is clearly crazy about it.

Nine years’ worth of measurements were taken forthe plan. 2.2 million measurement points aredepicted on it, almost 6,500 compact sources ofradiation were catalogued, most of which are out-side our Milky Way. And with cameras that wouldbe a bitter disappointment for even amateur pho-tographers: the most visually stunning of the 18receiver systems has a resolution of exactly sevenpixels—a far cry from the seven million pixels ofany mid-priced digital cameras. The cylindrical so-called horn aerials measure up to five meters (5.5yards) in length, but only have a one-pixel receiver.

Mobile disruptionBut they are highly sensitive: Junkes’ favourite placein the Milky Way could not be seen with opticalcameras or telescopes. “There’s far too much cos-mic dust. Only the radio telescope can penetrate it,”says Junkes. And speaking of cameras: “We don’tlisten in, we look,” he explains. “We are an eye, notan ear. Radio waves are really radio light.” But anextremely weak form: the strongest signals outsidethe solar system are emitted by the supernova rem-nant Cassiopeia A, which is 10,000 light years away,followed by Cygnus A, the most well-known radiogalaxy, which is 750 million light years away. “If anastronaut switched on a normal two-watt mobilephone on the moon, it would be the third-strongestsource of radiation,” Junkes says to illustrate hispoint. And it would eclipse a lot of other signals. Soit’s no wonder that mobiles are strictly forbiddenaround the telescope in Effelsberg.

You can listen to the pulsar PSR 2021 + 51 in the Cygnus (swan)constellation, recorded by the Effelsbergradio telescope: URL: www.mpifr-bonn.mpg.de/audioob-jekte/pulsar2021/audio.mp3

Or to 22 pulsars from the 47 Tucanaeglobular cluster, recorded by the Parkesradio telescope in Australia: URL: www.mpifr-bonn.mpg.de/audioob-jekte/47tuc/audio.wav

Sound of space


Interference is the number one problem for theMPIfR. Junkes: “It would be hard for us to stop people in the village from using microwaves.” Thetelescope’s valley location does, however, protect itfrom many sources of interference, such as radarbeams. However, it is no use for the main problem:“Our work is pure research and results in knowl-edge alone. It is in the public interest and is thereforefinanced by the government,” says Junkes. “Butsometimes the government has problems recogniz-ing what’s in its own interest.”

Science versus businessIn other words, there are a dozen protected frequency bands for radio telescopy. But, when con-flict arises, astronomers are often left empty-handed. Or to be more accurate, they are left blind.For instance, ever since the TV satellite Astra-1Dwent into operation in 1994, the telescope has onlymeasured white noise on the formerly protectedwavelength band of 2.8 centimeters (1.1 inches).“When there is any doubt,” says Junkes, “industrialinterests win out.”

The astronomers think that this type of disaster mayhappen again: one of their most important bands is

13ASTRONOMY

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the wavelength of 1.3 centimeters (0.5 inches). Theyuse it to track ammonia and water in space. But themanufacturers of distance radar systems for carshave started to use this band. They could use ahigher band—but that would mean higher costs.According to Junkes, the consequences could bedevastating: “The radiation from a brake assistantone kilometer (0.6 miles) away is one thousandtimes stronger than the strongest radio wave out-side our solar system.” If radio astronomy draws theshort straw, discoveries like the one made inDecember may become impossible in the future. “Itis therefore extremely important that protected fre-quency bands be preserved for science,” says Junkes.

The scientists are still able to use a good two per-cent of the entire frequency range. They have not,however, used it to look for alien life. Junkes is fedup with what is probably the question most fre-quently posed by visitors: “No, E.T. and his gang areof no interest to us, other people are responsible forthem,” he remarks. They would sooner track downcattle that have broken free. “Whenever an electricfence is damaged in the vicinity, we pick up on it,”he laughs. “We could get a message to the farmer:hey, it looks as if you’ve got a pulsar there.”

Like a UFO in the valley:3,200 tons (7,000,000 pounds)of perfectly balanced steel—the size of the MPIfR telescope is only apparent from a bird’s eye view.

Radio signals are among the longest waves in the electromagneticspectrum: their waves lie between 0.35 millimeters (0.01 inches) and15 meters (16 yards)—and constantly arrive on Earth from space. Asa comparison: the wavelength of optical light perceptible to the humaneye is between 400 (violet) and 800 (red) nanometers.

Cosmic radio waves were discovered in 1932 by the American radioengineer Karl Jansky. He was given the task of explaining the recur-rent interference affecting transatlantic radio communication. To hisown surprise, he discovered that one of the sources of interferencewas not of earthly origin, but came from the direction of the MilkyWay.

Since then, radio astronomy has developed into one of the mostimportant methods for researching the universe—almost all of theastronomers awarded the Nobel Prize have been radio astronomers. Itsmain benefit: unlike optical telescopy, observations carried out usingradio astronomy are not hindered by cosmic dust or fog clouds. It wasthanks to radio telescopy that the exact structure of our Milky Waycould be determined and previously unknown objects like quasars andpulsars discovered.

Waves from space

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15SPOT ON

_____ A MASS MOVEMENTIt sweeps through all the stadiums in the world and is known as the“Mexican Wave”, “La Ola”, the “Stadium Wave” or simply “TheWave”. Yet the legends surrounding the invention of the tremendousspectator spectacle are more numerous than its many names.

_____ BATTLE OF THE CHEERLEADERSTwo former US cheerleaders are involved in a bitter dispute about its origin: Rob Weller claims to have set off the first wave during afootball match on 31 October 1981 at the University of Washington’sHusky Stadium. But Krazy George claims that a video proves that he began “The Wave” on 15 October 1981 during the AmericanLeague Championship Series at the McAfee Coliseum in Oakland.

_____ YET MORE SIRESOther experts claim that Bill the Beerman is the inventor. He is said to have kick-started “The Wave” among the football fans at Seattle’sKingdom back in 1976. Russian and Canadian ice hockey teams arealso alleged to have invented it. Or perhaps it wasn’t a sporting occa-sion at all. Perhaps it was Frank Zappa? Back in 1969 at the DenverPop Festival, “The Wave” was said to have swept around the MileHigh Stadium after the rock rebel used sound and gestures to call for audience participation. To which song is not clear—possibly“Lemme take you to the beach”.

_____ HOW WAVES MOVEWhere and when the first wave started remains unclear. But how it did has been the subject of intense research: a team of German andHungarian scientists published their findings in “Nature”, suggest-ing that fans act just like chemical components during “The Wave”.They also found that, as in chemical processes, a critical mass isrequired for “La Ola” in order to get the reaction going. And that “The Wave” usually moves in a clockwise direction at twelve meters(13 yards) per second.

_____ NOT JUST FRIENDSBut this form of group exercise isn’t everyone’s idea of fun. Forexample, US sports journalist Lincoln Areal says it is “evil”. It is, hesays, an indication of boredom and thus suggests a lack of respect for the athletes involved. In addition, it destroys the atmosphere ofthe game because it is tantamount to the spontaneous outbreak of a collective attention deficit disorder.

Photo: Walter Spaeth

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The Sound of Waves

16 BUILDING ACOUSTICS

enice has lost its soul,” cried LucianoPavarotti: on the night of 29 January 1996,

Venice’s magnificent opera house La Fenice burntdown. Five of Verdi’s operas had been performedfor the first time there, and Enrico Caruso and MariaCallas had enchanted audiences there. The lagooncity mourned.

But not for long. The very next day, the city author-ities decided to rebuild it. “The Phoenix”, as LaFenice means in English, was to rise out of the ashes.And “com’era e dov’era”—how it was and where itwas. Even its famous acoustics were to be repro-duced with the same or even better quality. It was ahuge challenge for Jürgen Reinhold from therenowned acoustics company Müller-BBM fromPlanegg near Munich, who was entrusted with thetask. “Particularly since,” according to Müller,“audiences today prefer longer reverberations tothose in historical opera houses.”

Reverberation time is the most important factor foracousticians. It is the key quality criterion for a con-cert hall, a stage, a lecture hall or even a large officeand describes the time required for the sound in aroom to decay to one-thousandth of its originalvalue. For a conference room or a theatre, where

V

High-quality architecture caresses the eye. And the ear;acoustics is all about the hidden art of transformingmechanical waves within a space into sound. For along time now, professional acousticians have beeninvolved in more than just the building of concert halls.

The most spectacular new concert hallcurrently under construction is in Ham-burg on top of a former warehouse sur-rounded by the Elbe: the Elbphilharmonie(Hamburg Philharmonic Hall, see render-ings). Its irregular, interlocking terracesrise up around the conductor and orches-tra to form a steep-sided bowl of spec-tators. The concept guarantees optimalviews from every seat—and is a realchallenge for acousticians.

Temple of waves by the Elbe

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17BUILDING ACOUSTICS

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“Acousticianspiece together tiny parts of a mosaic.”

Mini loudspeaker for maximum pleasure: Acousticians areusing a wooden model on a scale of 1:10 to simulate andoptimize the sound in the future Hamburg Philharmonic Hall.


every word spoken must be clear when it reachesthe listener’s ear, reverberation time needs to be asshort as possible and certainly under one second.For a classical concert, it may well be twice as long.On the other hand, the full drama of an organ con-cert in a church can only be experienced with areverberation time of up to ten seconds.

Only reflections guarantee enjoymentSounds—be they music, speech or noises—makethe air vibrate. These vibrations reach our ears assound waves. But the multitude of individual notesin a concert only becomes a rich tapestry of soundfor the audience thanks to the knowledge of acousti-cians. “Acousticians piece together tiny parts of amosaic,” says Reinhold. They begin with the shapeof the hall and the seating arrangements and go rightthrough to details such as the optimal covers forseats.

And a roundabout route is essential: were the soundto travel directly from the orchestra to the listener’sear, it would seem much too cold and dry. So-calledreflections are required to enhance the experience:the sound must also bounce off the walls and theceilings of the hall, from where it is guided to theaudience's ears. This is the only way in which a rich,warm sound can be created.

Acousticians have a lot of tricks up their sleeves toachieve the desired reflections: Walls are lined withmaterials with large pores, which reflect the soundat exactly the right level. Wall panels can be turnedin various directions depending on how large theorchestra is. Even balconies, balustrades, mouldingsand boxes make a contribution to the overall tone,since they scatter the sound and thus preventechoes. In La Fenice, Reinhold inclined the previ-ously flat ceiling above the orchestra a few degreesin the direction of the audience, in order to improvethe sound in the very back rows. Some halls, such asthe concert hall in the Kultur- und Kongreßzentrum(Culture and Convention Centre) in Lucerne inSwitzerland, whose acoustics are famous through-out the world, even have an echo chamber behindthe stage so as to expand the volume of the hall andthus ensure a longer reverberation time. The oncein Lucerne was created by Russel Johnson from NewYork, one of the most respected acousticians in theworld, who died two years ago.

And don’t forget, you “listen” with your eyes too.The size of a space orientates concert visitors—thebigger the hall, the more reverberation they expect.The Japanese acoustician Yasuhisa Toyota, probablythe most famous member of his guild today, believesthat psychology also plays a role in acoustics (see P

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ceThe classic shape for a concert hall isthat of a shoebox: long, comparativelynarrow and often very high. The stage liesat the end of the cuboid. The great con-cert halls of the 19th century were con-structed in this way. The “Golden Hall” ofthe Wiener Musikverein (Viennese MusicHall), which opened in 1870, is anexcellent example. Its acoustics are stillfamous today. A successful example of amodern-day shoebox is the concert hall inthe Culture and Convention Centre inLucerne, which opened in 1998. Due toits imposing height, it is also known asthe “cathedral of acoustics”.

The “shoebox”


ISLAMISCHE GELDANLAGENBUILDING ACOUSTICS 1919

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important factor for acousticians: it is the basis for agood sound.

Parliamentary buildings also depend on acoustics.Whilst Reinhold tackled La Fenice, his colleagueKarlheinz Müller racked his brains to find a solutionfor the Reichstag building in Berlin. The 66-year-old brother of Müller-BBM’s founder is widely rec-ognized as the German acoustics doyen and is men-tioned in the same breath as Toyota and Johnson.Müller was responsible for the acoustics in the Ger-man parliament, the Bundestag, in Berlin. The prob-lem: the hall is really much too big a space forspeeches. Had no measures been taken, the politi-cians would probably have sounded as if they weregiving sermons in a cathedral. Müller thus hadsound-absorbing chambers built under the floor,which extend down as far as five meters (5.5 yards).The countless small halls in the ground, throughwhich the sound is absorbed, cannot be seenbeneath the carpet.

Operatic ocean linerBut concert halls remain the biggest challenge: fromthe very first performance, their sound must be per-fect. One of the most spectacular concert halls cur-rently under construction is in Hamburg: theElbphilharmonie (Hamburg Philharmonic Hall).The Swiss architect’s office Herzog & de Meuron iscreating a wave-shaped building made of glass ontop of an old warehouse surrounded by water. Thewhole building is reminiscent of an ocean steamer.The hall will have 2,150 seats. Yasuhisa Toyota is incharge of the acoustics.

The Japanese master of sound is a champion of the“vineyard” design: concert halls in which theorchestra sits in the middle of the room surroundedby rows of spectators. This is in complete contrast toa traditional “shoebox” like Lucerne’s Culture andConvention Centre (see margins). Toyota’s mostfamous work to date is the Walt Disney ConcertHall in Los Angeles, which opened in 2003. It lookslike a whole host of sails made from steel and wasdesigned by top architect Frank Gehry. It was a com-promise between two shapes: from the outside itlooks like a rectangular shoebox, but inside it has a“vineyard” design. The symbiosis worked; criticspraised the clarity of the individual instruments andthe warmth and directness of the sound.

According to the Japanese acoustician, the HamburgPhilharmonic Hall is unique, both in terms of shapeand the materials used. In order to guarantee a

interview). Jürgen Reinhold is well aware of this:“Musicians feel happier surrounded by wood.” Ifyou cover a concrete wall with wood, even thoughthe acoustic values remain the same, most musiciansstill think that the sound is better.

The opera hall of La Fenice is almost fully lined withwood. The problem there was different: “The inte-rior was completely destroyed.” Nevertheless, thehall was to be reconstructed true to the original,meaning that the acousticians had little room tomanoeuvre. There was, however, one benefit:“Because the internal structure of the building hadbeen completely destroyed, we were able to build insoundproofing between the opera hall and the restof the building.” Between the hall’s wood-panelledbrick wall and the concrete wall separating the outerrooms, a layer of hard fiber board was added tosoundproof the hall and reliably deflect all externalnoise. Silence has reigned inside ever since. Andsilence is, however paradoxical it may sound, an

Unlike in “shoeboxes”, in “vineyards” theorchestra is seated in the centre of theroom surrounded by terraced seating. Thecircular arrangement and the gradualincline in the rows of seats mean thatconcert visitors can see the musicianswell from all areas. The vineyard model isthus seen as the “democratic” concerthall. The Berlin Philharmonic Hall, builtin 1963, was the first of its kind. Criticsat the time labelled it a “grandiosefortress of sound”.

The “vineyard”

Planning game: 56 measuringpoints on the model shouldguarantee that acoustics calcula-tions for the Hamburg Philhar-monic Hall are accurate.


“Acousticsis an artistic discipline”

Master of the acoustics mystery:Yasuhisa Toyota

perfect sound, he had a five-by-five-meter (5.5-by-5.5-yard) model of the hall built. Inside, each of the2,150 seats is occupied by a doll in order to simulatea full house. The problem is that early reflections aredifficult to achieve here. Early reflections are soundwaves that bounce back off the side walls and reachthe ear in less than 60 milliseconds. These are muchcoveted in concert halls. They provide a sense ofspace, as human ears are able to detect where soundsare coming from within this time. However, some-one sitting close to the orchestra in Hamburg is along way from the nearest wall. The solution is ahorn-shaped reflector that hangs from the ceilingand can be adjusted in terms of height.

Incidentally, the first “vineyard” in the world wasvery controversial: when top German architectHans Scharoun won the competition to design theBerliner Philharmonie (Berlin Philharmonic Hall)in 1956 and placed the orchestra in the centre of theconcert hall, he caused quite a stir. There was strongresistance to the unconventional shape of the build-ing and the hall. Herbert von Karajan, who was theconductor of the Berlin Philharmonic Orchestra atthe time, had to threaten to leave the city beforeScharoun’s design was finally implemented. Theacoustics impressed everyone.


Mr Toyota, you have said that the acoustics of a concert hall always remain something of a mystery. Does this mean that acoustics is not an exact science?It is both a science and an art. We are unable to perceive acoustics, in other words sound,without music. In an empty room, we hear nothing. So when we talk about acoustics, wealways mean the music we can hear at the time. So acoustics is an artistic discipline. Thus,for acousticians, there always remain many unknown quantities.

Are you involved with the design of a concert hall or does your work begin only once thedesign is complete?Naturally, the design of the building is primarily the job of the architect. We can only providesupport with acoustics. But we usually help the architect to develop the shape of the hall.There are always discussions and we are usually included in them. Of course, every architectis different. No two architects are the same to work with.

You are seen as someone who never makes compromises.Compromise is not the right word. It sounds too negative. Discussions are always necessaryand a balance must be found. I wouldn’t call working together to find the best possiblesolution a compromise.

Does any one concert hall have the perfect sound?A perfect sound is always a subjective experience. You need perfect music to create it, butcan you imagine perfect music? It is always relative to the moment and to the concert thatyou are in. It is a combination of acoustics, music and psychology.

You never miss the first concert in a hall where you were responsible for the acoustics…The first concert is important, but the first orchestra rehearsal is much more important. I am always terribly nervous (laughs). The most difficult moment for me is the sound of thefirst note. Beforehand we know absolutely nothing. The product of many months’ work thenbecomes obvious. If the acoustics are just the way I wanted them, I am happy.

The acoustics maestro Yasuhisa Toyota on perfection, compromise and the joyof the first note.

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21FACTS AND FIGURES

WAVES BY THE NUMBERS

1,000

The AMAZON WAVE POROROCA can travel a distance of 970 kilometers (603 miles). This tidal bore phe-nomenon occurs every spring at full and new moon, when the tides of the Atlantic push ocean waterupriver. THE LOWEST TONE audible by most people has a wavelength of exactly 21.4375 meters. Thisis about one octave lower than the lowest key on a piano. The FIRST PERM was done by the Romans2,600 years ago, who created waves in hair using the world’s earliest curling iron. The chemical per-manent wave treatment only came along much later, invented by Charles Nessler in 1906. The GIANT HONEY BEE APIS DORSATA forms a wave of defence with 1,000 of its species to ward off threats. In coordinated fashion, each bee elevates its abdomen, one after the next, creating a wave ofstingers up to two meters wide within a fraction of a second. According to its inventors, the prototypeSEARASER WAVE POWER PUMP can generate enough electricity to power 470 households. The WAVE ROCK formation is 2.7 million years old. It is one of Australia’s most popular natural attractions,with over 130,000 visitors each year. GAMMA RAYS not only have an extremely short wavelength at lessthan 10 picometers, they also hold a tremendous amount of energy, able to pass through over a meter oflead (3.3 ft.). 10 picometers equals 10-12 meters. By comparison, the element hydrogen, the smallestatomic unit, has an atomic radius of 37 picometers. A MARSHMALLOW heated in a microwave oven willexpand by 400 percent. Light bulbs on the other hand will light up in a microwave—as will a computermouse. INFRARED LIGHT of type A (wavelength 750 to 1,400 nanometers) penetrates four centimeters(1.6 inches) into the human body before turning into heat.


“IT WAS NOT A BOLT FROM

THE BLUE”

22 INTERVIEW

Nouriel Roubini was just about the only economist to predict the global financial crisis and recession. Ever since, the New Yorkeconomist has simply been known as “Dr Doom”. 1585 spoke tohim about the causes of the crisis, global cyclical volatility —and what is in store for us.

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23INTERVIEW

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what question are you askedmost frequently at the moment?Most people want to know if the worst is behind us.

Mr Roubini, is the worst behind us? The worst is yet to come. In the majority of theworld, representing a total of 60 percent of theglobal domestic product, economic output is shrink-ing. The collapse of the banking system has beenprevented so far, but there are still huge burdens tobe shouldered. Credit losses may rise to 3.6 trillionUS dollars, further banks are threatening to go underand there will be another wave of nationalizations.

Can you understand that people have graduallyhad enough of this bad news? Of course I can. But there is no point in predictingan end to the downturn just because people want itto happen. After each shock last year—the collapseof Bear Stearns, the near collapse of AIG, the bank-ruptcy of Lehmann—people hoped that the worstwas over and that the events would have a catharticeffect leading ultimately to recovery. But we are stillin the midst of a vicious circle: the financial crisisleads to a credit crunch, which in turn leads to arecession, as a result of which even more loans willgo bad. No, we have not reached rock bottom yet.

You have become famous as “Dr Doom”. Youmight be able to increase your fame by tellingus what will come after the crisis. Any ideas?I am not a professional pessimist. After deleverag-ing, or eliminating high-risk options, a period ofrecovery will set in. Nonetheless, it will be a slowprocess and will continue to feel like a recession atfirst. This year, the US economy will not experienceany growth at all. In 2010, it may grow by 1 percent.

Does the economy need its ups and downs, inthe same way that day and night go together?It doesn’t need them, but they are probably unavoid-able. The waves are often triggered by externalshocks, for example, increasing oil prices or wars.However, in recent years, it has almost become pos-sible to speak of credit cycles. Innovations in thefinancial sector were not supported by appropriateregulations. This ultimately caused speculative bub-bles to grow.

Until recently, many people thought that stabi-lization had been successful. The economy wasgrowing, inflation remained low ......but in reality the combination of high growth, lowinflation and low interest rates encouraged the for-mation of speculative bubbles. It sounds paradoxi-cal, but the result was the exact opposite of what wewere hoping to achieve.

The negative sides to a downturn—bankrupt-cies, unemployment—are well known. Arethere any positive aspects?Schumpeter described them in the principle of creative destruction: the weak vanish from the market, while the strong expand. But a small reces-sion is somewhat different to the crisis that we arenow experiencing. Enormous assets have beendestroyed. The budget deficits that governments areusing to finance deposit guarantees and anti-reces-sion packages will mean a significant burden forfuture generations.

It is obviously fashionable at the moment tolook for patterns in economic development.For instance, historian David Fischer claims tohave observed recurring, long-term waves of

MISTER ROUBINI,


the central banks have built up over the last 25 years.I don’t think that the Federal Reserve will allow thatto happen.

Because lessons have been learnt from thepast?Politics no longer deals with problems the way it didduring the Great Depression and has also learntfrom the crisis in Asia. Furthermore, the Europeansare pressing the USA to implement real reforms andnot to carry on as usual after the crisis and thus riskthe next bubble. We now have the chance to regu-late the system in such a way that we can avoidexcessive developments. What makes me confidentis that the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China)are so strong. Larry Summers, currently Obama’snational economic advisor, once compared the inte-gration of China and India in the world economywith the Renaissance and the Industrial Revolution.This may be somewhat exaggerated, but what is cer-tain is that China alone has contributed some 1.3 bil-lion people to the global workforce. This is a radicalchange. The growth prospects in the emerging mar-kets are enormous. The global economy will bene-fit from this.

Optimistic words from Dr Doom.As I said, I am not a professional pessimist. We canplace the economy on a long-term stable footing,provided that we find ways to deal with the limitedresources available to us and create energy security,solve the problem of global imbalance, establish a stable financial system, and develop a global eco-nomic code of conduct. All this will not happen byitself. There is a lot of work ahead of us.

Perhaps you will be able to contribute to mak-ing sure this is done. After all, ministers, gov-ernment officials, bankers, and CEOs the worldover are queuing up for your advice.I do not wish to overrate my own personal role. Intimes of uncertainty, people look for reliable infor-mation. My advice and that of my company are indemand because we are independent. We endeavourto provide honest, intelligent and realistic analyses.This business is a bit like the film industry. Actors arenot only judged on their last film. It is a question ofperforming well over a longer period of time.

24 INTERVIEW

inflation lasting over 100 years. Kondratiev’stheory too (see page 6) is being rediscovered.Do you think there is something in it?I have my doubts. The economy does not developmechanistically. Technological progress, geopoliti-cal and economic events—such as the abolition of fixed exchange rates or the increased role of central banks—are not subject to any regularity. Butall these factors have a considerable influence oneconomic events.

On the other hand, there is the Black Swan theory coined by epistemologist NassimNicholas Taleb: a rare phenomenon that occursby chance upsets normal development. Is thefinancial crisis a “black swan”?No. I met the author recently and he believes thatthe financial crisis is a “white swan” or a logicaldevelopment caused by imbalance and politicalerrors. It was not a bolt from the blue.

Which theory are your predictions based on?My approach is rather eclectic. I try to observe thewhole system: the development of global data, his-torical examples, behavioural patterns in crisis situ-ations. You have to be creative. The world cannot beexplained in simple terms. I have nothing againststringent analysis but, in order to grasp complexdevelopments, you have to approach them holisti-cally and assess all useful information.

You are warning of a combination of stagnationand deflation…...yes, I am worried that the US economy may takean L-shaped course, as happened in Japan in the 90s.It is possible.

But other economists fear inflation in themedium term. Do you thinktheir fears are unfounded?Inflationary fears are based onpeople’s concern that the state is printing money in order toreduce its debts with the aid of price increases. This would,however, go hand in hand withhigh economic costs and wouldundermine the credibility that P

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Nouriel Roubini, 50, has made a career out of the financial crisis.Since he was one of very few economists to predict it, not only very early but also correctly, the son of Persian Jews has become arevered star of the international financial community. The professor of economics teaches at the Stern School of Business, which is partof New York University. At the end of the 90s he was, for a shorttime, a member of Bill Clinton’s council of economic advisors at theWhite House. In 2004, he founded the advisory and analysis com-pany RGE (Roubini Global Economics), whose expert reports are saidto be amongst the best in the industry.


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Ceramica.High-tech ceramics.


26 INSIGHT

MAKING WAVESWaves are more than just water sloshingmonotonously back and forth. Scientists havebeen trying to better understand waves forcenturies. But until recently the breakers havekept their secret, defying all kinds of heavymathematical artillery brought to bear againstthem. Until a few years ago, monster wavestowering 40 to 50 meters high (131–164 ft.) onthe open seas were considered just an old fish-ermen’s tale. It wasn’t until the advent of

satellite photography that their existence wasproven beyond doubt. Modern quantummechanics managed to explain how waves arecreated—once again turning theories of tradi-tional, linear physics upside down in theprocess. Reality eventually sunk distributionmodels that for decades had been used as thebasis for calculating wave lengths. Today weknow that mega-waves tear across the oceanshundreds of time every year—causing many

THE DRIVING FORCE: WINDWind is literally the driving force behind the formation of water

waves. Put simply, the different velocities of the elements at the

point where air meets water creates shear stress, causing the sea

to get out of balance. Wind force and duration are key determinants

of a wave’s character, in addition to exposed surface (strike length

and fetch). High waves are regularly observed on large inland

waters like Lake Constance or the US Great Lakes, which are long

enough for wind to have this effect.

a captain to break into a cold sweat. Becausethey are unable to conduct research on mon-ster waves on the open seas, scientists makedo with lab simulations. They now can repro-duce every type of wave inside of wave chan-nels. The University of Hanover and theHamburg Ship Model Basin (HamburgischeSchiffbau-Versuchsanstalt—HSVA) utilizebasins measuring 300 x 20 meters (984 x 66ft.) that are among the largest in Europe.

HOW MONSTER WAVES COME ABOUTThere are three theories as to how monster waves arise. Theory 1: Super-

position. Fast, larger waves catch up with slower ones. In certain con-

stellations these can build up to form a monster wave. Theory 2: Where

a current meets storm waves, the drift causes the wave fronts to collide.

Because water is not compressible and the waves’ energy remains con-

stant, they rise up to form a monster wave. Theory 3: In the intersect-

ing sea theory, freak waves are created through the interplay of vortices

with turning winds—even in calm waters. A wave’s velocity depends on

its length and the sea depth. The greater the depth and the longer the

wave, the faster it will get. A deep-water wave of about one kilometer

in length (.62 miles) travels at around 140 km per hour (87 mph).

The orbital movement of microscopically small water particles is another

important factor. These particles flow in spirals in the ocean’s deeps

when a wave passes them. This phenomenon occurs even at depths of

roughly half of the wave length. Experts refer to these as deep-water

waves. With flat-water waves the orbits are elliptical and reach to the

bottom.

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INSIGHT

[15 METERS (49 FT.)]

CALM WATER LEVEL

[40 METERS (131 FT.)]

MS BREMEN IN DISTRESS While passengers aboard the luxury liner Queen Elisabeth II came

away with only a fright and a few broken windows in 1995, the

111-meter-long MS Bremen (364 ft.) fared much worse. In Febru-

ary 2001, in the South Atlantic, a 40-meter-high breaker smashed

through the windows of the bridge, destroying the ship’ electronics.

Listing, the ship was tossed about in stormy seas for 30 minutes,

unable to manoeuvre until the crew was able to start the auxiliary

engine and escape to Buenos Aires. In 1978, the 260-meter-long

container ship München (853 ft.) disappeared off the radar north

of the Azores—never to be seen again.

40 METER-HIGH-MONSTERSScientists have only been studying so-called ‘rogue’, ‘monster’,

‘killer ’ or ‘freak’ waves for some 30 years, though extensive

research is virtually a new thing. Waves of up 25 to 40 meters

(82–131 ft.) in height are not a rarity. Today experts distinguish

between three types: rogue waves are relatively fast and move

against the sea current. The term ‘Three Sisters’ describes the phe-

nomenon of typically three very large waves in succession. A ‘White

Wall’ is the term for an extremely steep monster wave, named after

the foam coming down off the crest.

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he 2003 heat wave in Europe, the record 2004hurricane season in the Caribbean and

Florida, Hurricane Katrina in August 2005—extreme weather events like these are becomingmore frequent. Cyclone Nargis that struck in Burmaand Hurricane Ike caused the third-highest damagetotal in history just last year.

No doubt about it, the Earth is warming, resultingin economic losses. Yet opportunities are being created as well. “It is amazing that climate change isdiscussed almost exclusively in negative terms,”says Ernst Rauch, “but this is due to the unfortu-nate and unscientific way in which the subject tends to be discussed. A one-sided picture emerges

as a result, concealing the fact that “many industriesand regions will be the winners in this changed situation.”

More than 30 years experience Rauch knows what he is stalking about. The 49-year-old geophysicist runs the Corporate ClimateCentre maintained by the German reinsurer MunichRe. Accordingly, his job includes finding ways howhis company can benefit from the weather. “We seeglobal warming not only as a risk managementissue, but also as a business opportunity,” saysRauch. After all, the new technologies used byindustrialized nations to effectively respond toglobal climate change, will need insuring too.

T

28 CLIMATE

Global warming = bad news, right? Not necessarily, accordingto Ernst Rauch. A climate expert at reinsurance firm Munich Re,Rauch is able to see two sides to the equation, namely that somebusinesses, and even entire national economies, stand to gain from climate change.

AND NOW THE WEATHER …

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29CLIMATE

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Munich Re offers insurance products relevant tosuch areas as solar, wind and geothermal energy andemissions trading. These products can only bedeveloped with the necessary precision on the basisof a superb data stock. Thus, the Munich Re Corpo-rate Climate Centre has tracked all weather phe-nomena around the world for over 30 years, withover 25,000 individual events recorded in the pro-prietary NatCat database.

Rising riskThe data housed in Munich prove how damage-causing disasters are clearly on the increase. “Geo-logical risks such as earthquakes and volcanic erup-tions have remained largely constant over our

period of observation,” says Rauch, “but extremeweather events have increased significantly in fre-quency.” And risk continues to rise. According to arecent study, there is a 90 percent likelihood thatmankind is responsible for weather-related disasterrisk having more than doubled. “Business, govern-ment and civil populations can no longer afford tostand by and watch this development. It is impera-tive that we work to reduce the amount of damageour economy and society is exposed to,” says Rauch.

This means for example that buildings need to beconstructed to be more storm-resistant. Land usagealso must be planned so as to minimize the risk offlooding. Both of these tasks present major oppor-


30 CLIMATE

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tunities for the construction industry, as new designvistas open up for architects and engineers. Prop-erty owners will benefit as well over the long term.Though the real estate market is troubled currently,in a number of years, things like storm-resistanceand environmentally-compatible construction willincrease property values and reap lower insurancepremiums.

“All this does not mean of course that we can sim-ply continue ejecting unlimited amounts of CO2

into the atmosphere,” comments Rauch, whoclearly distances himself from the naysayers of man-made global warming. A group of researchers asso-ciated with Republican US Senator James Inhofe hasadvanced such skeptical views in a recently pub-lished “Minority Report”. Rauch counters: “Socio-economic development, population growth andshifting values are in fact the true drivers of theglobal warming phenomenon.”

Costs nearly manageableEven if certain regions and industries will benefitfrom climate change, warming may not be permit-ted to go on forever. “To maintain a stable global sys-tem, the change must be confined within certain

limits. For businesses these limits are typicallydemarcated by the extent to which risks can beinsured,” says Rauch. The associated costs are quitemanageable one would have to say, at least in com-parison with the bank and economic bailout figureswe are seeing today. In a recent study, consultingfirm McKinsey concluded that only 810 billioneuros needs to be invested in new technologiesworldwide to halt global warming by the year 2030.That figure represents roughly one third of Ger-many’s gross domestic product last year.

Nicholas Stern, former chief economist at the WorldBank and now an adviser to the British governmentand professor at the London School of Economics,has produced a sophisticated cost/benefit study. Inthe widely respected publication, the “Stern Reviewon the Economics of Climate Change” (‘SternReport’), he has analyzed the economic impact ofglobal warming, concluding principally that if gov-ernments act now, it will cost roughly 1% of globalGDP to keep atmospheric greenhouse gases at anacceptable level. Damage caused by failure to act, onthe other hand, will eat up at least 5 percent of globalGDP, rising to as much as 20 percent if you factor in‘collateral’ damage.

Stimulus similar to an economic packageStern also sees opportunities in these develop-ments, believing that the necessary climate changeadjustments would have a long-term impact similarto a highly effective economic stimulus package. “Toadapt to the consequences of climate change willdemand many new technologies, especially in theenergy sector,” says geophysicist Rauch. For thisreason, highly industrialized nations with techno-logical know-how will be among the global warm-ing winners. Certain marginally industrializedregions like northern Russia will benefit as well,however, where in only a few years it will be pos-sible to cultivate grain thanks to global warming.

No one can simply afford to wait and see what theweather and climate effects will be. The concentra-tion of CO2 in the atmosphere will continue to rise,resulting in further warming and ever more fre-quent weather disasters causing unspeakable dam-age. “Businesses have to react,” emphasizes Rauch,“by identifying the changes relevant to them andweighing potential opportunities and risks associ-ated with various response strategies.”

‘Wait and see’ not an option:“Businesses have to react,”emphasizes Ernst Rauch, Directorof the Munich Re Corporate Climate Centre.

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1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20051975

Source: Munich Re

Munich Re began addressing the phe-nomenon of global warming in the early1970s. Some insurance and legal ana-lysts became aware of a paradigm shiftunderway in the area of disaster damage.In a 1973 study the company warnedcautiously of the potential consequencesof climate change. In 1974, Munich Reorganized an in-house research depart-ment to study the phenomenon, layingthe foundation for today’s Corporate Cli-mate Centre. The Centre is built aroundthe world’s largest natural disaster data-base, in which the insurer has trackeddetails on some 25,000 events going backto 1970, in addition to all major disas-ters having occurred since 1950 and anumber of mega-events of the past 2000years.

Munich Re and climate change

Grim forecast: Alarming increase in weather disasters Major weather disasters 1950–2008 (total damage) in billion US dollars


31PHOTO STORY

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ART COLLECTION: Waves of light and shadow

he wind created the dunes of Namibia—awork of art composed of millions of grains of

sand, created over a period of thousands of years. Ittook Swiss photographer Balthasar Burkhard only afraction of a second, however, to create his own art-work, with a click of the shutter.

Colossally dimensioned at nearly 3 m wide (9 ft.),the black-and-white photo captures an extraordi-nary interplay of light, shadow and the majesty of the dunes. The work reflects Burkhard's pho-tographic style of taking large, clearly structured

images imbued with a depth that draws the spec-tator in. Black-and-white photography is well-suited for exploring effects of light and shadow—“colour would just be a distraction,” Burkhardfirmly believes. He is more interested, he says, inbringing out the essence of the subject than inrecording details. Hailing from the city of Bern, theartist has long been fascinated by the view of ourworld from above—not just of the Namibian desert.Burkhard's bird's eye perspective works are amonghis most famous, including aerial photos of MexicoCity and other megacities.

TDesert—Namibia, 2000 by BalthasarBurkhard is part of the Deutsche Börse ArtCollection. The collection was begun tenyears ago and continues to grow—nowencompassing roughly 700, primarily large-format, works by some 70 internationalartists.

Deutsche Börse Art Collection


32 GUIDE

Tomasz Garlinski loves the tremendousview: The limestone rock rises 426 meters(1,398 ft.) above the rolling wavesbetween the Atlantic and the Mediter-ranean Sea. Gibraltar has a population ofaround 30,000 residing on a space of 6.8 square kilometers (4.2 sq. miles),though this number is increasing thanksto land reclamation. The territory has itsown airport, the runways of which inter-sect the four-lane highway to Spain.Flights from the United Kingdom arriveand depart here, including Royal Air Forceaircraft. The peninsula’s military impor-tance has waned since the end of theCold War, but tourism is now booming,especially with the easing of tensions withSpain and simplified border control.

GibraltarSuperb vantage point

NO NORMALDISTRIBUTION Tomasz Garlinski,CEO of ARB FinancialGroup, trades on Eurex and Xetra; he showed us around the British overseas territory of Gibraltar in southern Spain.

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he wreck of the Fedra rises above the waves beneath the light-house. This 225 m (738 ft.) freighter smashed against the cliffs

last year in an October storm. “The crew was rescued just in the nickof time,” recalls Garlinski, who drove us down to the southern tip ofGibraltar. You can see over to Africa and a distinct, elongated waveline where the Mediterranean and the Atlantic meet. Some forty hugeships are anchored off the two coasts. “About three times more thanusual! They are waiting on orders—global trade is stagnating,” saysGarlinski. Things are still busy at the port on the western side, one ofthe biggest fueling docks in the Mediterranean.

The best view of the ships and the two seas is from up on the limestonerock. On the way up, by cable car, taxi or on foot, you encounter theisland’s most famous inhabitants. Some 200 to 300 macaques live on the rock, and occasionally descend to the eastern coastline; they are Europe’s only wild monkey colony, and protected under conser-vation laws. Garlinski maintains a prudent wariness towards thesesometimes comical animals, but even more so towards the large seagulls that circle here: “I was out jogging here recently and one ofthem chased me all the way into town—these birds can be really dangerous!”

Fauna and financesGibraltar is famous for its macaques, but for other things as well. Likeits dominant financial industry, the main driver of economic growthfor over ten years now. One of the most prominent fixtures of theindustry is located in a new district built on land reclaimed from thesea outside the casemates enclosing the old town. Eurex has had anaccess point here since 2004, now used by more than half a dozenmembers.

The strength of the financial industry rests on the tax regime. A Euro-pean Court only recently upheld the territory’s right to conduct itsown fiscal policy. Gibraltar celebrated the decision by declaring a one-time public holiday. But for Garlinski the British overseas territory isabove all “an ideal place to work and live—under English law, but witha Spanish vibe and lifestyle.” He appreciates Gibraltar’s strict but unbu-reaucratic Financial Services Commission, the terrific weather and allthe friendly people from all over the world. He himself is, after all, aEuropean ‘world citizen’: “I was born in Poland, have a German pass-port, a UK drivers license, and I came to Gibraltar as an independenttrader via the Netherlands and Switzerland.”

Europe’s rock-solid southernoutpost: Gibraltar’s economy ispowered by shipping, telecommuni-cations, tourism—and above all thefinancial industry—and real estatehere continues to go up.

Garlinski graduated from an elite mathematics high school, going onto attend university in the city of Wroclaw, where he was born. Yet itwas his other talent that propelled him westwards: tennis. Havingwon the Juniors Championship back home in Poland, he played professionally and gave lessons in Bavaria in the early 1980s, which is when he obtained German citizenship. Only then did he begindevoting himself to his true passion, the financial markets, complet-ing his studies in Wroclaw in the early 90s as one of the first graduateswith the new specialisation in financial mathematics.

“Crises cannot be calculated in advance”Despite his mathematical penchant, Garlinski remains clear aboutwhat the discipline can and cannot do. Such as generate guaranteedprofits. “Waves do not always observe the Gaussian normal distribu-tion—neither in the ocean nor in the financial markets. The Nobelprize-winning Black/Scholes option pricing model, based on the normal distribution, only affords an approximation of reality. Crisescannot be calculated in advance,” says our financial professional.

But Garlinski has made money from the market ups and downs inrecent years. Currently he is mainly involved in arbitrage transactions,in addition to market making, which enhances liquidity depth. Theautomated trading program he uses, VALUES API, is now run from a dedicated data center in Gibraltar via a standardized open interface.Garlinski’s core business is computer-aided trading on Eurex andXetra. Other businesses now include asset management and manag-ing a strategy fund.

What about the global financial crisis? Garlinski is optimistic about themarkets, despite the prevailing pessimism. “Cyclical crises are a normalphenomenon in a healthy market, as are waves of speculative eupho-ria.” A group of physicists once ran a set of simulations establishing thata perfectly efficient system would fall apart entirely given the slight-est element of crisis. “Therefore,” Garlinski emphasizes, “crises are infact a necessary part of life, seen from a long-term perspective.”

T

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NICE TO HAVE

NICE TO HAVE A good many fashion trends may be purely and simply the result of good marketing, but some products survive the ups and downs of being in and out time and again. “1585” presents five new candidates that shouldn’t fall into oblivion too soon:

34

LightWave Bike’s high-grade carbon wheels demon-strate that less is more: even in mass production,its true monocoque frame weighs under a kilo(two and a half pounds)—and stays ahead of itscompetitors; at least when top triathletes likeOlaf Sabatschus are sitting on it.Price: from 3,700 eurosURL: www.wave-bike.com

CultConfess! In the 1960s, no self-respecting German TV policesuperintendent ever solved a case without his KAISER idelldesk lamp. It’s now the turn of design fans to own up: thenew version of this original Bauhaus lamp is retro design atits most beautiful.Price: 599 eurosURL: www.kaiseridell.com

StyleNo-one stands out on the beach anymore, not even in the hip-pest sunglasses. But you’re sure to be noticed in a pair ofGucci Wellington boots: the first original Italian designer shoesthat even keep aggressive salt water at bay.Price: approx. 220 euros URL: www.gucci.com

Perfect shapeWhen form and function go hand in hand the result can be both stylishand nippy: the Windy 44 Chinook, Europe’s “Motor Yacht of the Year”in the class up to 15 meters (50 feet) easily manages 40 knots.

Price: from approx. 570,000 eurosURL: www.windyboats.com

SharpIt’s a well-known fact that people eat with their eyes as well as their mouths. But true gourmets keep everylast detail in sight even when preparing food: the hand-crafted Danubia Hocho Sontoku by cut-lery maker Dick from Metten appeals not onlythrough the use of the finest Japanese steel anda highly polished reindeer antler handle but alsothrough the spectacular wave-like structure ofthe 64-layer, high-grade Damascus steel. Price: 385 eurosURL: www.dick.biz

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Waves

Business Journal Deutsche Börse Group 1585

1/0

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.00

BUSINESS CYCLE Can long waves explain the global economy?

CRISISWhat’s next, Dr. Doom?

CLIMATEDoes global warming alsooffer opportunities?

Eine Chilischote ist auch nur Gemüse.

Bis man reingebissen hat.

Der neue Boxster S.

Wir haben nachgewürzt: die Benzindirekteinspritzung (DFI). DFI spritzt

den Kraftstoff direkt und millisekundengenau in den Brennraum ein.

Für mehr Leistung und ein höheres Drehmoment. Bei modellabhängig bis

zu 15% weniger Verbrauch und bei bis zu 16% weniger CO2-Emissionen.

Hier erfahren Sie mehr – www.porsche.de oder Telefon 01805 356 - 911, Fax - 912 (EUR 0,14/min).

Kraftstoffverbrauch l/100 km: innerstädtisch 14,1 · außerstädtisch 6,6 · insgesamt 9,4 · CO2-Emission: 221 g/km

Porsche empfiehlt

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00 e titel rz 3 - deutsche-boerse.com · waves business journal deutsche börse group 1585 1/09 eur...

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