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The
HeavyOilResource
MBDCI
Introduction toIntroduction to
Heavy Oil in the World and in CanadaHeavy Oil in the World and in Canada
Maurice B. Dusseault
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The
HeavyOilResource
MBDCI
The Oil Source of the FutureThe Oil Source of the Future
Heavy and viscous oils maybecome the major world oilsource by 2060
New technologies fromCanada have led the way inhelping access thischallenging resource SAGD IGI CHOPS HCS PPT And, others are emerging
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The
HeavyOilResource
MBDCI
API DefinitionsAPI Definitions
50
20
45
40
30
10
0
API
0,780
0,802
0,825
0,876
0,934
1,000
1,076
Densityg/cm
Condensate
Lightoil
Heavyoil
Extraheavyoil(10000 mPa.s)
ConventionalOil
Non-c
on-
ventional
Oi
l
API: American Petroleum InstituteAPI: American Petroleum Institute
API is a measure of the oil density!
~11.3API
API gravity = (141.5/SG at 60F) - 131.5Different countries, organizationsuse different HO definitions
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The
HeavyOilResource
MBDCI
The Last 40 YearsThe Last 40 Years
WorldOil
Consumption
-Mb/day
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The
HeavyOilResource
MBDCI
Future ofFuture ofConventionalConventional OilOil
1998 predictions:Demand +1.5-2%/yr
Convl oil production
peaks in ~2008-12 (?)Middle East >40%,
50% by ~2020
Cheap oil era mayhave now ended
Heavy oil value
Q- Bb/yr
20
31 Bb/yr
Conventional Oil Prediction in RedTotal Need Prediction in Blue Dots
2008
1978
Campbell and Laherrre
March Sci Am, 1998, p78
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The
HeavyOilResource
MBDCI
What is the Energy Issue?What is the Energy Issue?
People are consuming more energy Countries want to develop (China, India),
increasing energy demand significantly
Developed countries are slowly consumingmore and more energy, but Energy intensity is decreasing (good!)
Population growth is stabilizing (good!) Traditional pollution is abating (good!)
This leaves CO2 as the remaining challenge,
but a very important one!
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MBDCI
Scena
riosto2050-ShellInter
national(2001)
Changes in Energy SourcesChanges in Energy Sources
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
Fuel Cell
Hydrogen?
DirectElectricity
Solar?
Direct Wood, Wind, Water, Animals
Steam Engine - Coal (1830 - 1900)
Electric Dynamo - Coal (1900 -1940)
Internal Combustion Engine
Oil - (1910 1970)
Nuclear (1960 - 1990)
CCGT Natural Gas (1990 - ?)
Is a nuclear energy future the most likely?
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MBDCI
Energy Utilization EfficiencyEnergy Utilization Efficiency
Unit Energy Input per $ ofGross National Product
1970 2000 2030
1.0
0.5
All countriesare followingsimilar trends
2008
Clearly, we are using energy much more efficiently on a GDP basis.For oil, it is even better (down to 0.43-0.44 compared with 1970)
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HeavyOilResource
MBDCI
World Population GrowthWorld Population Growth
World Population- billions
1950 2000 2050
10
56 billion
~9 billion
x
Peak in about 2050 (?)
July 2010 ~6.86 109
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MBDCI
Selected Countries Oil IntensitySelected Countries Oil Intensity
kg oil perreal $ GDP)
Source www.iea.org
http://www.iea.org/http://www.iea.org/ -
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MBDCI
2009 Consumers - ~85.2 MMb/d2009 Consumers - ~85.2 MMb/d
Rank Country 2009 Oil Consumption
1 United States 20.7 million barrels/day
2 China 7.9 MMb/d
3 Japan 5.0 MMb/d
4 India 2.7 MMb/d
5 Russian Federation 2.7 MMb/d
6 Germany 2.5 MMb/d
7 Brazil 2.4 MMb/d
8 Canada 2.4 MMb/d
9 South Korea 2.3 MMb/d
10 Mexico 2.1 MMb/d
11 France 2.0 MMb/d
12 United Kingdom 1.8 MMb/d
http://www.photius.com/rankings/economy/oil_consumption_2009_1.html modified!
http://www.photius.com/rankings/economy/oil_consumption_2009_1.htmlhttp://www.photius.com/rankings/economy/oil_consumption_2009_1.htmlhttp://www.photius.com/rankings/economy/oil_consumption_2009_1.html -
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MBDCI
Example of Energy ConsumptionExample of Energy Consumption
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MBDCI
Lets Look at the USLets Look at the US
US is the largest energy consumer US consumes ~25% of world oil, 2nd largest
per capita (Canada is #1 per capita)
US is the dominant economic force (30% ofworld GDP)
US population is increasing, but Europes is
now declining slowly US GDP growth rate is less than developing
countries ~3.2% vs. ~7-10% for India, China
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MBDCI
Per Capita Energy use - USAPer Capita Energy use - USA
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/pdf/trend_2.pdf For the USASource: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2010
Increasing efficiency
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/pdf/trend_2.pdfhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/pdf/trend_2.pdfhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/pdf/trend_2.pdf -
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MBDCI
Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2010 For the USA
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MBDCI
Comparison to WorldComparison to World
BP Report June 2009
COAL HYDRO NUCLEAR
NATURAL GAS
OIL
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HeavyOilResource
MBDCI
Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2008 For the USA
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MBDCI
For the USASource: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2008
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MBDCI
Comments on USA ProjectionsComments on USA Projections
A roughly stable situation predicted for oil:Despite population growth & GDP growth
The future role of nuclear power is likely
underestimatedNuclear is a carbon-free energy source
Technology in 2010 is far more advanced than in
1979, 1986 (less risk, higher efficiency)
Geological waste disposal has proven feasible
Coal growth predictions seem high
So, predictions are fine, but they change
com are to EIA redictions made in 2000
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The
HeavyOilResource
MBDCI
US Imports (Crude + Products)US Imports (Crude + Products)
COUNTRY
MMBOD
%
Canada 2.5 17.7Mexico 1.4 11.2
Saudi 1.1 10.8Venezuela
1.1 9.9
Nigeria 1.0 8.3Algeria 0.67 4.9Angola 0.51 3.7Iraq 0.49 3.6Rest 4.10 29.9
13.7 100.1US consumes: ~20.6 MMBOD
US imports: ~13.7 MMBOD (crude + all product
2010
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HeavyOilResource
MBDCI
Sources of US Imports - 2010Sources of US Imports - 2010
CANADA
MEXICO
VENEZUELA
SAUDI
ARABIA
NIGERIA
ANGOLA
ALGERIA
RUSSIA
IRAQ
BRASILCOLOMBIA
BDCI
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The
HeavyOilResource
MBDCI
China 1990-2010China 1990-2010
2010: ~4 MMbod imports, ~3.8 MMbod production
MBDCI
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The
HeavyOilResource
MBDCI
Future of Conventional OilFuture of Conventional Oil
1998 predictions:Demand +1.5-2%/yr
World production
peaks in ~2010 (?)Middle East @30%,
50% by ~2015 (?)
Cheap oil era mayhave ended
Viscous oil value
9% of world prod.
Q- Bb/yr
20
~31 Bb/yr
Conventional Oil Prediction in RedTotal Need Prediction in Blue Dots
2008
1978
Modified; red line from Campbell andLaherrre March Sci Am, 1998, p78
MBDCI
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The
HeavyOilResource
MBDCI
Hubbert Curves PredictionsHubbert Curves Predictions
Time
Production
Effect of increasedprice and new
technologies
MBDCI
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HeavyOilResource
MBDCI
Predictions in 1990 (Chevron)Predictions in 1990 (Chevron)
0102030405060
1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100MioBesPDa
Reserves
TotalConsumption
Ex. Heavy& Bitumen
EOR
ShaleOilUndiscovered
Conventional
Chevrons predictions in 1990 (all predictions are necessarily wrong)
A typical prediction from 1987 data
7080
ACTUAL in 2010
MBDCI
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MBDCI
http://www.delphi.ca/apec/
What Are Our Options?What Are Our Options?
We will first make up the difference byconservation + heavy oil and oil sands
High price also affect demand (as in 2008-09)
We can make oil from natural gas; trouble is,natural gas is a valuable fuel too! Also, $
We can convert wood, plants, coal
We can go to a H2 or an ethanol economy ($) Carbon issues will impact our future
technologies (carbon taxes, sequestration)
MBDCI
http://www.delphi.ca/apec/http://www.delphi.ca/apec/ -
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MBDCI
Critique of PredictionsCritique of Predictions
The future role of heavy oil has beenunderestimated: this is beginning to change The emergence of new technologies in the
last 20 years is not fully accounted forReserves will soon rise by >550 BB (heavy oil)
e.g. USGS (2010) said 513 Bb for Venezuela Total reserves will rise by another 1000 BB
Technology affects conventional oil as well Nuclear is being slowly reborn Predictions based on history are useful, but
to be used with some caution
MBDCI
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MBDCI
World and OPEC ProductionWorld and OPEC Production
OPEC
World (total)
EIA Web Site
MBDCI
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HeavyOilResource
MBDCI
Sources of Conventional OilSources of Conventional Oil
Russia, Saudi Arabia, and USA are thebiggest producers
The Middle East dominates the conventional
oil export market, and will continue for theforeseeable future (25 years or more)
EIA predictions for the future have been
unrealistically high
Total believes peak of ~95 MMb/y in 2020
(Note that this does not necessarily mean a
total oil production peak!)
MBDCI
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HeavyOilResourc
e
MBDCI
BP 2009 Proven reservesBP 2009 Proven reserves
MBDCI
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e
MBD
BP 2009 Proven reservesBP 2009 Proven reserves
MBDCI
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The
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e
Proved oil reserves at end 2005Proved oil reserves at end 2005
www.bp.com
North America59.5
CanadianVISCOUS
OIL
>320 BbAERCB
South andCentral America103.5
VenezuelanVISCOUS OIL
>500 Bb(USGS)
A better view!
MBDCI
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The
HeavyOilResourc
e
Oil: Who Produces it?Oil: Who Produces it?
Saudi 10.8 MMb/d Russia 9.8 USA 8.5 Iran 4.2 China 4.0 Canada (2008) 3.4 (rising) Mexico (2008) 3.2 (dropping) UAE 3.0 Kuwait 2.7 Venezuela2.6 Norway 2.5 Brazil 2.4
Canada is now 6th
However, growth in
heavy oil and oil sands
continues (Canada: ~5
MMb/d by 2020) Where will other
growth come from?
Conventional is flat
I believe that growth
will mainly come from
technology oil: i.e.
heavy oil, oil sands2008 EIA datahttp://tonto.eia.doe.gov/country/index.cfm
MBDCI
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The
HeavyOilResourc
e
Future ofFuture ofConventionalConventional OilOil
2010-2012?
2030
probable
oil future
optimistsprediction for
conventional oil
conventionalprediction
Time
Oil production, alltypes (C, H, XH)
MBDCI
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The
HeavyOilResourc
e
The Limits to HydrocarbonsThe Limits to Hydrocarbons
Conventional oil ~ 2% of natural HCs Heavy oil ~ 4-5% of total HCs
Natural gas ~ 5-8% of HCs
Coal + shale oil ~ >50% of non-gas HCs Methane hydrates may comprise 10-25%!
We can synthesize oil from coal, wood, etc.
We can make oil from elements (C + H)!
e.g.: H2 from electrolysis (solar power)
C from various sources, then combine the two!
MBDCI
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The
HeavyOilResourc
e
Example: Ethanol CExample: Ethanol C22HH55OHOH
Density of ethanol: 0.789 Density of gasoline: 0.737
Energy density of ethanol: ~25 MJ/kg
Energy density of gasoline: ~45 MJ/kg In the tank of your car:
ETHANOL gives 19.7 MJ/litre
GASOLINE gives 33.2 MJ/litre Pollution? About the same
Gasoline: fossil fuel; Ethanol: plants
MBDCI
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The
HeavyOilResourc
e
How Much is There??How Much is There??
World viscous oil reserves are about 2.2-2.3 times as
large as the conventional ( < 100 cP) reserves. > 75%
of these reserves are in sandstones
World Oil Resources (not necessarily reserves)
0
100
200
300
400
Conventional< 100 c PHeavy Oil100-10000 cPBitumen> 10 , 000 cP
D. W igh tman (1997 )
Bom3
MBDCI
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The
HeavyOilResourc
e
World Oil EndowmentWorld Oil Endowment
Extra Heavyand Bitumen55%
Conventional Oil30%Heavy Oil15%
Probably the total endowment is ~14 trillion barrelsVenezuela, Russia & Canada together have ~40% of this
Oil shalesnot included
Saudi Arabia claims ~40 billion m3 (#1 in 2009)With New Heavy Oil Technologies, Canada has >35billion m3 of reserves (#2 now, #1 in the future?)Venezuela and Russia will go up in rank soon
MBDCI
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The
HeavyOilResourc
e
Oil SandsOil Sands
Oil sand slopesin Canada
Core from Venezuela
Weathered surface looks almost white
MBDCI
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The
HeavyOilResourc
e
Will Oil Run Out?Will Oil Run Out?
Natural cheap conventional oil must run out But, oil from heavy oil deposits, shale, coal
conversion depends on $ + technology
At $45/BBL, much heavy oil is profitableAt $80/BBL, oil from coal (SASOL), gas?
At $90/BBL, major shale oil projects?
At $120/BBL, wood conversion is possible!At some price, gasoline from chemistry (C+H)
Oil is thus infinite, depending on price
MBDCI
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The
HeavyOilResourc
e
World Reserves:World Reserves: Todays ViewTodays View
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
billionbarrels
SaudiA
rabi
a
Cana
da Iraq
Vene
zuela
Russia
Mexico
These are in a sense sanctioned recoverable reservesSources: Oil and Gas Journal Dec 2002, AEUB
Alberta
MBDCI
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The
HeavyOilResourc
e
Reserves Data Summary 2008Reserves Data Summary 2008
Country Reserves Production Reserve life
109 bbl 109 m3 106 bbl/d 103 m3/d years
Saudi Arabia 267 42.4 10.2 1,620 72
Canada 179 28.5 3.3 520 149
Iran 138 21.9 4.0 640 95
Iraq 115 18.3 2.1 330 150
Kuwait 104 16.5 2.6 410 110
Venezuela 99 15.7 2.7 430 88
United Arab Emirates 98 15.6 2.9 460 93
Russia 60 9.5 9.9 1,570 17
Libya 41 6.5 1.7 270 66
Nigeria 36 5.7 2.4 380 41
Kazakhstan 30 4.8 1.4 220 59
United States 21 3.3 7.5 1,190 8
China 16 2.5 3.9 620 11
These are the currently widely accepted figures
MBDCI
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_Reserves_in_Saudi_Arabiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves_in_Canadahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves_in_Iranhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves_in_Iraqhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_Reserves_in_Kuwaithttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves_in_Venezuelahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_Reserves_in_the_United_Arab_Emirateshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_Reserves_in_Russiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_Reserves_in_Libyahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_Reserves_in_Nigeriahttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Oil_Reserves_in_the_Kazakhstan&action=edit&redlink=1http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_Reserves_in_the_United_Stateshttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Oil_Reserves_in_China&action=edit&redlink=1http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Oil_Reserves_in_China&action=edit&redlink=1http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_Reserves_in_the_United_Stateshttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Oil_Reserves_in_the_Kazakhstan&action=edit&redlink=1http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_Reserves_in_Nigeriahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_Reserves_in_Libyahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_Reserves_in_Russiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_Reserves_in_the_United_Arab_Emirateshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves_in_Venezuelahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_Reserves_in_Kuwaithttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves_in_Iraqhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves_in_Iranhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves_in_Canadahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_Reserves_in_Saudi_Arabia -
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e
Albertas View of Oil ReservesAlbertas View of Oil Reserves
EIA financial institutions
- Based on a less rigid view of recoverablereserves and technology potential
Billionsofbarrels
recoverableres
erves
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Source EIA + AEUBCan
ada
Sau
diA.
Can
ada
SEC
Iran
Venez
uela
Russia
USA
Mexico
~2003data
MBDCI
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The
HeavyOilResourc
e
Canadas Viscous OilCanadas Viscous Oil
This is a conservative estimate
MBDCI
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The
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e
Alberta ReservesAlberta Reserves
Athabasca 237.1 Bb
These are considered technicallyrecoverable reserves
MBDCI
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The
HeavyOilResourc
e
World Reserves: Tomorrows ViewWorld Reserves: Tomorrows View
0
50
100
150
200
250
300350
Venezuela Canada Iraqussia US
billion
barrels
Highly conservative estimates
S Arabia(US for comparison only)
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MBDCI
There are significant HO & XHO reserves in carbonates in ME 1 Tb,0 5 Tb i C d t
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e
0.5 Tb in Canada, etc.
~2006
1 2
3
4
http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/
MBDCI
http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/ -
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e
Viscous Oil Reserves - USGSViscous Oil Reserves - USGS
These are Ultimate OOIP Values (projected) South America (with Venezuela) 3.1 Tb
(Venezuela alone 1.65 Tb)
Canada 2.0 Tb Russia 2.0 Tb
Middle East 1.0 Tb
United States (with Alaska) 0.8 Tb Rest of World 0.6 Tb
These figures do not reflect reservoir quality. Venezuela likely
has the largest technically recoverable reserves ~0.5 Tb
http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/
MBDCI
http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/ -
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The
HeavyOilResourc
e
Viscous Oil in the WorldViscous Oil in the World
Suchnumbers areapproximateonly, butViscous Oilamountgreatly
exceedsConventionalOil amount
~2.2 the amount of Conventional Oil
MBDCI
http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/ -
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Heavy Oil - Global ViewHeavy Oil - Global View
Mexico
Canada
Argentina
Venezuela
Trinidad
Angola
China
India
SaudiArabia
Netherlands
UK
Egypt
Indonesia
Jordan
E. Europe
Oman
MadagascarAustralia
Brazil
Russia
EcuadorColombiaPeru
Kuwait
TurkeyItaly
Nigeria
Egypt
USALower
48
~1 billion
~10 billion
~100 billion
>1 trillion
Barrels OOIP
Source: JPT, IEA ,Schlumberger OFS Marketing
Alaska
Offshorechallenge
Coldproduction
Offshorechallenge
Offshorechallenge
Steamflood
Steamflood
Arcticconditions
Cradle of new technologies:Mining, SAGD, VAPEX, THAI
SAGD
MBDCI
V H Oil D i
http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/ -
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Vast Heavy Oil DepositsVast Heavy Oil Deposits
Source: Head Jones &Larter 2003, Nature
MBDCI
h i fWh i L f ?
http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/ -
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What is Left?What is Left?
~13.5-14.5 Tb of liquid HC (not countinggas, shale oil, methane hydrates) ~4.6 Tb conventional, ~9.7 Tb heavy (
-
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Optimists vs. PessimistsOptimists vs. Pessimists
Optimists use USGS data (but history hasshown that these data are pretty good!)
Pessimists fail to account for the new
emerging technologies that will help slow
down the decline rate
However, the conventional oil production
peak may be imminent (2009-2012?)
Demand will have to be met by higher prices
and heavy oil
Lets study some data
MBDCI
Vi Oil P d i 2010Vi Oil P d i 2010
http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/ -
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Viscous Oil Production - 2010Viscous Oil Production - 2010
Alaska
Canada
USA
Mexico
Trinidad
Venezuela
Brazil
Argentina
UKNetherlands
Eastern EuropeItaly Turkey
Egypt SaudiArabia
India
China
Russia
Indonesia
Australia
Kuwait
Oman
Madagascar
Nigeria
Angola
Iran
Syria
Ecuador
Columbia
Peru
Kazakhstan
Libya
Iraq
Mining/SAGD/VAPEX/THAITM
Cold Production
SAGD
Cyclic Steam Stimulation
Others/not enoughinformation
CHOPS
SF/SD
SD/SF/SAGD/CSS/CHOPS
Legend
~1.8 MMb/d
~0.35 MMb/d
~0.4 MMb/d
~1.0 MMb/d
~0.25 MMb/d
~0.3 MMb/d
~0.35 MMb/d
Courtesy Satinder Chopra
2009 data
~0.25 MMb/d
~0.25 MMb/d
Iran
MBDCI
Oil i NOT Lik G ld!Oil i NOT Lik G ld!
http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/ -
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Oil is NOT Like Gold!Oil is NOT Like Gold!
Fixed gold amount in
the earths crust
Richest mines are
always exploited first
Cant create gold Gold is stored as well
as used (i.e. a buffer
against high prices)
Gold cannot be
destroyed (in principle,
always recyclable)
Only fossil HC is a
fixed quantity
Politics often dictate
differently (e.g. USA)
Oil can be created With minor exceptions
all produced oil is
consumed, no storage
Oil is destroyed when
used, and cannot be
recovered in any way
MBDCI
USA R fi F d k E l iUSA R fi F d t k E l ti
http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/ -
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USA Refinery Feedstock EvolutionUSA Refinery Feedstock Evolution
30
31
32
33
84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
%S
ulfur
APIGrav
ity
API gravity Sulfur
Feedstocks are getting heavier
MBDCI
Wh F C d ?Wh F C d ?
http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/ -
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Why Focus on Canada?Why Focus on Canada?
Huge heavy oil reserves
The recent new technologies have been
largely developed in Canada
Conventional oil is depleting in a highlyexplored, mature basin
Canada is the first country to go through:
A peak in oil (conventional) productionA trough in production
Now, the old peak exceeded by new heavy oil
MBDCI
W t C di Oil MiW t C di Oil Mi
http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/ -
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Western Canadian Oil MixWestern Canadian Oil Mix
MBDCI
Alb t P di ti i 2009Alb t P di ti i 2009
http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/ -
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Alberta Predictions in 2009Alberta Predictions in 2009
All bitumen
MBDCI
2009 Bit P d ti F t2009 Bit P d ti F t
http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/ -
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2009 Bitumen Production Forecast2009 Bitumen Production Forecast
MBDCI
Alb t All Li id P d tAlb t All Li id P d t
http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/ -
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Alberta, All Liquid ProductsAlberta, All Liquid Products
MBDCI
Bit 2009Bit men 2009
http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/ -
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In situMined H
eavy
OilBe
lt
Oilsandsregion
Bitumen - 2009Bitumen - 2009
SAGD production
is increasing fast!
These figures do
not include heavy
oil south of line
Some Cold Lake
region production
is from CHOPS +heavy oil from
Saskatchewan Alberta ERCB,2010 report
MBDCI
Oil S d OPEXOil Sands OPEX
http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/ -
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Oil Sands OPEXOil Sands OPEX
MBDCI
2000 2010 Oil Prices (Canada)2000 2010 Oil Prices (Canada)
http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/ -
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2000-2010 Oil Prices (Canada)2000-2010 Oil Prices (Canada)
MBDCI
Viscous and Conventional OilsViscous and Conventional Oils
http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/ -
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Viscous and Conventional OilsViscous and Conventional Oils
Profit margin
Royalties andtaxes
Upgrading &transportation
OPEX
CAPEX
Exploration
100% 100%
Conventionalpetroleum
Heavy, XHpetroleum
This chart is notintended to reflect aspecific case. It is ageneralized statementof the cost driversdifferences between
viscous andconventional oils
MBDCI
Light/Heavy Differential PriceLight/Heavy Differential Price
http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/ -
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Light/Heavy Differential PriceLight/Heavy Differential Price
Source: NEB Website
http://www.neb.gc.ca/clf-nsi/rnrgynfmtn/prcng/crdlndptrlmprdcts/cndnmrkt-eng.html
Light oil price
Heavy oil price
MBDCI
Production TechnologiesProduction Technologies
http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/ -
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Production TechnologiesProduction Technologies
Edmonton
Calgary
Saskatoon
Regina
Alberta Saskatchewan
Lloydminster
Peace Riveroilsands
Athabascaoilsands
Wabiskawdeposits
Cold Lake oilsands
HeavyOil Belt
SAGD
Mining
HCS,CHOPS
CSS, HCS
CHOPS
SAGDCHOPS
CP
MBDCI
Opening New Markets for BitumenOpening New Markets for Bitumen
http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/ -
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Opening New Markets for BitumenOpening New Markets for Bitumen
MBDCI
Husky Energy
Lloydminster
http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/ -
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Lloydminster
Upgrader
~80,000 b/d (2006),
being expanded
(2007)
Upgrading HO is an important
issue affecting production
MBDCI
ConclusionsConclusions
http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/ -
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ConclusionsConclusions
Conventional oil will soon peak Good for heavy oil, IOR, profits
Remarkable technology advances recently
We must try to consolidate & perfect them
The future for viscous oil looks genuinely
promising at present If we dont develop viscous oils now, we
may never H2 cycle, replacement, CO2
http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/