01-pep 2009-2030 pcci presentation april 28 [compatibility mode]

5/17/2010

1

JESUS T. TAMANGJESUS T. TAMANGDirectorDirectorEnergy Policy and Planning BureauEnergy Policy and Planning Bureau


22NDND Meeting of the Energy CommitteeMeeting of the Energy CommitteePhilippine Chamber of Commerce and IndustryPhilippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry

28 April 201028 April 2010PCCI BoardroomPCCI Boardroom



GOP Directive

2008 Philippine Energy Summit

Ensuring the Ensuring the

best energy best energy

Ensure energy security

PEP Consultations

Sustainable Development Framework

International Frameworks on Energy Cooperation

choices for a choices for a

better quality better quality

of lifeof life

Pursue effective implementation of energy sector reforms

Implement social mobilization and cross-sector monitoring mechanism

Oil32%

Biomass 14%

Wind & Solar 0%

2009

30

40

50

60

70

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

%

kTOE

PRIMARY ENERGY MIXIncreased Energy Self-sufficiency and Fuel Diversification

Total = 40.4 MTOE

Coal17%

Natural Gas8%

Hydro6%

Geothemal23%

Self-sufficiency 2001 = 47.75% 2009 =58.89%

‐

10

20

‐

5,000

10,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Oil Coal Natural Gas Hydro

Geothemal Biomass Wind & Solar Self‐sufficiency

Oil8%

Coal

Geothemal17%

Wind & Solar 0%

2009

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

GWh

40

50

60

70

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

%

GWh

POWER GENERATION MIXIncreased Energy Self-sufficiency and Fuel Diversification in Power

Total = 62,000 GWh

26%

Natural Gas33%

Hydro16%

‐

10,000

20,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009


Geothemal Biomass Wind & Solar

Self-sufficiency2001 = 39.1% 2009 = 66.4%

20

30

‐

10,000

20,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009


Geothemal Biomass Wind & Solar Self‐sufficiency

• Accelerate the exploration and development ofoil, gas and coal resources

• Intensify development and utilization of renewableand environment-friendly alternative energy

1 Ensure energy security

resources/technologies• Enhance energy efficiency and conservation• Attain nationwide electrification• Put in place long-term reliable power supply• Improve transmission and distribution systems• Secure vital energy infrastructure and facilities• Maintain a competitive energy investment climate

• Monitor the implementation of, and if necessary,recommend amendments to existing energylaws

2 Pursue effective implementation ofenergy sector reforms

laws• Promote an efficient, competitive, transparent

and reliable energy sector• Advocate the passage of new and necessary

laws

5/17/2010

2

• Expand reach through Information, Educationand Communication

3 Implement social mobilization and cross-sector monitoring mechanism

• Establish cross-sector monitoring mechanism incooperation with other national governmentagencies, academe, LGUs, NGOs and otherlocal and international organizations

• Promote good governance


Field 2030 Targets

Awarding of Service Contracts 117

Production

Oil (MMB) 78.59

- Nido 0.9

- Matinloc 0.51

- Galoc 10.77

- Malampaya 23.1

SECTOR: OIL AND GAS

- West Linapacan A 23.16

- Cadlao 3.45

- Octon 1.46

- Linapacan 15.24

Gas (BCF) 2,694.16

- Malampaya 2,628.00

- San Martin 51.72

- Sultan sa Barongis 10.92

- Libertad 3.52

Condensate (MMB) 87.58

- Malampaya 79.33

- Sultan sa Barongis 8.25

Exploration and development of natural gas supply base

Inventory of other potential sources of natural gas and itsapplication

Improve IEC campaign on petroleum operations

SECTOR: OIL AND GAS

Improve IEC campaign on petroleum operations

Establishment of environmental standards with the DENR-EMB

Creation of one-stop shop

Continuous conduct and improvement of accessprovision of the PECR


2010 2015 2020 2025 2030In-situ Reserves (MMMT) 408.84 432.42 459.19 484.06 509.96

Luzon 54.13 53.65 53.20 53.09 53.02

Vi 157 50 173 97 192 89 209 99 227 89

Sectoral Target : Increase indigenous coal production by 250%

SECTOR: COAL

Visayas 157.50 173.97 192.89 209.99 227.89

Mindanao 197.21 204.81 213.10 220.99 229.05

Production (@10,000 BTU/lb MMMT)

6.29 9.47 10.65 11.91 12.08

Luzon 0.13 0.18 0.20 0.24 0.24

Visayas 0.39 0.85 7.24 8.28 8.32

Mindanao 1.23 2.97 3.21 3.39 3.52

Fuel Oil Displacement (MTOE)

3.32 5.00 5.62 6.29 6.38

5/17/2010

3

Improve IEC campaign

Accelerate development of coal mine-mouth power plant

Regular conduct of PECR

Research and promotion of Clean Coal Technologies

SECTOR: COAL

Research and promotion of Clean Coal Technologies

Cumulative Installed

Capacity (MW)

20-Year PEP

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Hydropower 4,166.84 3,477.81 4,433.51 6,432.21 6,615.19 7,533.84

Wind 985 00 33 00 199 00 903 00 953 00 1 018 00

SECTOR: RENEWABLE ENERGY

Wind 985.00 33.00 199.00 903.00 953.00 1,018.00

Solar 78.26 6.74 11.75 36.27 60.65 85.00

Biomass* 266.70 75.50 93.90

Geothermal 1,475.0 1,972.07 2,382.07 3,037.07 3,177.07 3,447.07

Ocean

TOTAL 6,971.8 5,565.12 7,120.23 10,408.55 10,805.91 12,083.91

Note: There is an additional indicative capacity of 240.8-MW for biomass. However, no data was provided as to what year the indicative capacities would come in.

Development of RE database

Intensive promotional activities on RE resources

Enhancement of RE stakeholders’ technical expertise

P ti f i j t (OTEC

SECTOR: RENEWABLE ENERGY

Promotion of emerging ocean energy projects (OTEC, wave,marine and tidal)

Encourage service contractors to undertake expansion andoptimization projects

Assessment/development of low enthalpy geothermal resources,as well as non-power applications of geothermal resources.

Intensive IEC campaign on environmental issues

1 Ensure energy securityYear Diesel Demand

(In million liters)*

Biodiesel Blend (Targets)*

Fuel Displacement

(In million liters)2009 5,144.54 2% 102.892010 5,379.42 2% 107.59

SECTOR: ALTERNATIVE FUELS (Biodiesel)

Note: *Based on JICA Study on Capability Enhancement on Policy and Planning for a More Effective and Comprehensive Philippine Energy Plan (PEP) Formulation

, %2015 6,632.36 10% 663.242020 7,805.75 15% 1,170.862025 8,768.48 20% 1,753.702030 9,427.89 20% 1,885.58

5/17/2010

4

Year Gasoline Demand (In million

liters)*

Bioethanol Blend

(Targets)*

Fuel Displacement

(In million liters)

2009 3,380.10 5% 169.012010 3,570.58 5% 178.53

SECTOR: ALTERNATIVE FUELS (Bioethanol)

2010 3,570.58 5% 178.532015 4,305.30 15% 645.792020 5,213.00 20% 1,042.602025 6,013.85 20% 1,202.272030 6,704.34 20% 1,340.87

Note: *Based on JICA Study on Capability Enhancement on Policy and Planning for a More Effective and Comprehensive Philippine Energy Plan (PEP) Formulation

Increase market awareness for alternative energyprojects

Forge partnerships with academe and researchinstitutions to conduct on-road performance and

SECTOR: ALTERNATIVE FUELS (BIOFUELS)

durability tests for higher biofuels blend forvehicles

Develop standards for higher fuel blends (10%-20%for biodiesel and 20%-85% for bioethanol)

Viability study for other potential feedstock

Expand the utilization of biofuels

Year

Cumulative number of CNG Buses (Target)

Total

Diesel LiterEquivalent

(In million liters)Luzon Visayas Mindanao

2009 70 70 3.28

2010 200 200 9.36

SECTOR: ALTERNATIVE FUELS (CNG)

2015 1,022 178 1,200 56.16

2020 1,884 329 288 2,213 117.00

2025 3,768 657 576 5,001 234.05

2030 7,535 1,314 1,151 10,000 468.00

Note: Based on JICA Study on Capability Enhancement on Policy and Planning for a More Effective and Comprehensive Philippine Energy Plan (PEP) Formulation

Implementation of NGVPPT policy directives

Support/facilitate passage of a CNG Bill for Transport

SECTOR: ALTERNATIVE FUELS (CNG)

Enhancement of policy directives and programincentives (supply and price mechanisms)

Ensure gas supply for the commercial phase

Policy direction on- LPG utilization- Two/four stroke motorcycle engine, motorized

bancas and other diesel engines

SECTOR: ALTERNATIVE FUELS (Auto-LPG)

Review and formulate standards for two and fourstroke motorcycle engine

Validation of the BNPP feasibility study result which was recentlysubmitted by the Korean Electric Power Company (KEPCO) as themajor deliverable of the MOU between the NPC and KEPCO

Site safety review on the BNPP to assess previous site studies

SECTOR: ALTERNATIVE FUELS (NUCLEAR)

Develop a public communication plan that will serve as guidepostIEC

Conduct a comprehensive study in the economic viability andcompetitiveness of nuclear power as a long-term energy option forthe Philippines

Continue capability enhancement of local manpower

5/17/2010

5


SECTOR: ENERGY EFFICIENCY

Energy Unit 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

KTOE 2,402 2,898 3,457 4,085 4,798

Sectoral Target : 10% energy savings on the total annual energy demand of all economic sectors

MW Deferred Capacity 212 266 333 417 522

TCO2 Emission Reduction 6,197,162 7,495,673 8,959,035 10,596,463 12,446,357

Advocate passage of the Energy Efficiency andConservation Bill

Promotion of Energy Service Companies (ESCO)


Continuing implementation of National EnergyEfficiency and Conservation Program (NEECP),Government Energy Management Program (GEMP),and the Philippine Energy Efficiency Project (PEEP)and Demand Side Management (DSM) Program

Development of: Energy labeling for new models of passenger cars

and light-duty vehicles Efficiency guidelines for residential buildings Energy benchmark for commercial/ government

buildings and industrial facilities


buildings and industrial facilities Energy Management Standard for industrial

establishmentsDevelopment/Promotion of Green Building

Technology

Put in place a Certification Program for energymanagers/auditors

Monitoring of efficiency performance of powergeneration utilities and electric distribution utilities

Promotion of: Aviation Fuel Efficiency Enhancement Retrofit of commercial and industrial


Retrofit of commercial and industrialestablishments for energy efficiency andconservation

Voluntary Agreement Program on theRationalization of Tricycle Operation

2 Pursue effective implementation of energy sector reforms

5/17/2010

6

Island Grid 2010 2011 2012 2014

Luzon 600

Visayas 328 325.5

SECTOR: POWER (GENERATION)

Mindanao 42.5 8.0 50.0

TOTAL 370.5 333.5 600 50.0

Luzon 2012 GN Power (600 MW) Mindanao 2010 Sibulan Hydro (42.5 MW) Visayas 2010 Cebu Coal (164 MW) 2011 Cabulig Hydro (8 MW)

Iloilo Coal (164 MW) 2014 Mindanao Geothermal (50 MW)2011 Kepco Naga Coal (206 MW)

Panay Biomass (17.5 MW)Nasulo (20 MW)Cebu Coal (82 MW)

Year Rated Capacity (MW) Project

2010 50 Coal-Fired Power Plant in Pampanga

2011 86 Burgos Wind Power Project

50 Wind Farm Power Project

300 LNG and Combined Cycle Gas Turbine

17 5 Nueva Ecija Biomass Power Project


17.5 Nueva Ecija Biomass Power Project

17.5 Malasiqui Biomass Power Project

30 Northwind Pamplona Project

40 Northwind Aparri Project

2012 40 Tanawon Geothermal Project

300 Subic Coal Fired Power Plant

1 Quezon Power Expansion Project


2012 17.5 Isabela Biomass Power Project Phase 2

17.5 Mindoro Biomass Power Project Phase 2

145 Kanan B1 Hydro Power Project

2013 550 San Gabriel Power Plant

270 Batangas Coal Fired Power Plant


2014 360 Kalayaan Pumped Storage Power Plant III

500 Quezon Power Expansion Project

2015 40 Rangas Geothermal Project

30 Balintingon River Multi-Purpose Project

2016 40 Manito-Kayabon Geothermal Project

N/A 23 Pagbilao Expansion

N/A 78 Pantabangan Expansion

N/A 40 Pagudpud Wind Power Project


2012 100 Panay Coal-Fired Power Plant

41 Aklan Hydropower Plant

17.5 Negros Biomass Power Project Phase 2


8 Villlasiga HEP

2014 40 Dauin Geothermal

2019 40 Southern Leyte Geothermal Project

N/A 18 Samar Biomass Power Project


2010 20 Bunker Fired Power Plant

2011 27.5 Tamugan Hydropower Project

225 Agus 3 Hydroelectric Plant

17.5 Cagayan de Oro Biomass Power Project


g y j

2012 68 Tagoloan Hydropower

17.5 Davao Biomass Power Project

2014 200 Southern Mindanao Coal Fired Power Station

N/A 5 Camiguin Island Wind Power

N/A 5.8 Sibulan HPP

N/A 9 Sibulan HPP


5/17/2010

7

Barangay Electrification Situationer (31 March 2010)

105

PHILIPPINES – 99.75%

Luzon – 99.67%

105Remaining Unenergized

Barangays

Mindanao – 99.65%

Visayas – 99.97%

REGION POTENTIAL ENERGIZED BALANCE ELECTRIFICATION LEVEL

CAR 1,176 1,176 - 100.00%

REGION I 3,265 3,265 - 100.00%

REGION II 2,311 2,311 - 100.00%

REGION III 3,102 3,100 2 99.94%

REGION IV – A 4,010 3,956 54 98.65%

REGION IV – B 1,458 1,448 10 99.31%

REGION V 3,469 3,468 1 99.97%

NCR 1,695 1,695 - 100.00%

Electrification Level by Region(31 March 2010)

SUB-TOTAL LUZON 20,486 20,419 67 99.67%

REGION VI 4,050 4,050 - 100.00%

REGION VII 3,003 3,003 - 100.00%

REGION VIII 4,389 4,386 3 99.93%

SUB-TOTAL VISAYAS 11,442 11,439 3 99.97%

REGION IX 1,904 1,904 - 100.00%

REGION X 2,020 2,013 7 99.65%

REGION XI 1,160 1,160 - 100.00%

REGION XII 1,194 1,191 3 99.75%

ARMM 2,459 2,435 24 99.02%

CARAGA 1,310 1,309 1 99.92%

SUB-TOTAL MINDANAO 10,047 10,012 35 99.65%

PHILIPPINES 41,975 41,870 105 99.75%

Attain 90 percent household electrification by 2017

Development and implementation of innovativeservice delivery mechanisms to increase household

SECTOR: RURAL ELECTRIFICATION

service delivery mechanisms to increase householdconnections


PRIVATIZATION

Accelerate implementation of Open Access and RetailCompetition

C l ti f i i diti

SECTOR: POWER (PRIVATIZATION)

Completion of remaining pre-conditions Threshold and privatization of the remaining NPC

generating assets Complete the appointment of IPP Administrators to reach

70% transfer of the remaining IPP contracts

Continuous divestment of remaining STAs

PRIVATIZATION – GENERATING ASSETS

Operating plants: 706-MW Capacity*

Expiring/Expired NPC-IPP Plants: 650-MW**


Decommissioned Plants: 850-MW***

Note:* Angat (246-MW), Bacman (150-MW), Hopewell GT (310-MW)** Malaya (650-MW)*** Sucat (850-MW)

5/17/2010

8

PRIVATIZATION – IPP ADMINISTRATION

3RD Wave To cover the capacity contracted at Ilijan Natural Gas Power Plant in

Ilijan, Batangas Approach and commercial structure to be adopted for the

remaining IPPs can differ from the one being used for the 1st wave of


remaining IPPs can differ from the one being used for the 1 wave oftendering (Sual and Pagbilao) and second wave (San Roque andBakun Hydroelectric).

Other Expired or Expiring IPP Contracts Oil-fired IPPs such as Malaya (plants with ECAs and/or O&M

contracts which expired or to expire this year and in 2010) willundergo the original path of privatization adopted for the NPC ownedgenerating power plants.


Ensure a competitive oil industry market, as well asreasonable prices of petroleum products

Mitigate the impact of oil prices on consumers

SECTOR: DOWNSTREAM OIL

Promote efficiency in supply and distribution chain

Promote awareness on the downstream oil industryinitiatives and developments including pricing


POLICY INITIATIVES

Natural Gas Bill Incentives for natural gas in the Investment Priorities Plan

PRODUCTION AND SUPPLY SECURITY

M it i d l ti f t l l d l t i

SECTOR: NATURAL GAS

Monitoring and evaluation of natural gas supply developments inASEAN, Middle East and APEC member countries

INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT

Review and update of the country’s Master Plan Study for theDevelopment of the Natural Gas Industry

Conduct of FS for LNG terminal to supply natural gas requirementsin Visayas and Mindanao

Develop and implement Infrastructure Development Plan forVisayas and Mindanao by 2021-2030

BATMAN 2BATMAN 2(Bataan (Bataan -- Manila)Manila)140 kms. (2016)140 kms. (2016)

SUSU--MAMA(Sucat (Sucat -- Malaya)Malaya)35 kms. (2017)35 kms. (2017)

ET LOOPET LOOP(EDSA (EDSA –– Taft Loop)Taft Loop)

40 kms. (2020040 kms. (20200

SECTOR: NATURAL GAS

INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT

BATMAN 1BATMAN 1(Batangas Manila)(Batangas Manila)8080--100 kms. (2013)100 kms. (2013)

BATCAVEBATCAVE(Batangas (Batangas –– Cavite)Cavite)

40 kms (2020)40 kms (2020)

RORO--BINBIN(Rosario (Rosario -- Biñan)Biñan)

35 kms. (2014)35 kms. (2014)

CATLINE (Calaca CATLINE (Calaca Spurline)Spurline)30 kms.30 kms.

5/17/2010

9

MARKET DEVELOPMENT

Conduct study for the use of natural gas from other potentialsources

Evaluation of techno-economic aspects of related technologies forfuel shift to natural gas

Promotion of on-site or small-scale power generation using

SECTOR: NATURAL GAS

Promotion of on-site or small-scale power generation usingmarginal gas fields

SECTOR: ENVIRONMENT MANAGEMENT

Impact and vulnerability assessments of the energy systems

Monitoring systems in the application of adaptation policies and measures and adaptive capacity

Assessment of energy technology needs options and Assessment of energy technology needs, options and priorities

Modification of engineering design practices Development and adoption of sustainable financing

mechanisms Integration of climate change adaptation to energy

policies, plans and strategies JESUS T. TAMANGJESUS T. TAMANGDirectorDirectorEnergy Policy and Planning BureauEnergy Policy and Planning Bureau






Player April May June September ProblematicDOE 7 7 9 2 10NEANPC – SPUG 1TeaM E

10

SECTOR: RURAL ELECTRIFICATION

EnergyKEPHILCO 1EDC 1USAID -AMORE

3

MERALCO 54Grand Total 21 7 9 56 12

SCENARIO DEMANDPROGRAMS/TARGETS

SUPPLY ASSUMPTION

Reference (2008 base year)

REFERENCE SCENARIO 5% efficiency improvement for all demand

sector CNG buses to increase by 200 units in 2010 Bi di l bl d (2% i 2009)

Existing + committed power projects

Biodiesel blend (2% in 2009) Ethanol blend(10% in 2011)

Low Carbon Scenario 1 (LCS 1)

ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO 10% efficiency improvement for all

demand sectors CNG buses to increase to 10,000 units in

2030 Biodiesel blend (5% in 2010; 10% by 2015;

15% by 2020; 20% by 2025) Ethanol blend (10% in 2011; 15% in 2015;

20% in 2020)

Double RE capacity

Low Carbon Scenario 2 (LCS 2)

Double RE capacity + new and other emerging technology e.g. new RE, nuclear, etc.

5/17/2010

10

Parameters 2008-2010 2011-2015 2016-2030

High GDP Growth

1.3 - 2009

2.6 - 2010

6% 6%

Mid GDP Growth 5% 5%

Low GDP Growth 4% 4%

Crude Oil Price per Barrel (US dollars)

70 80 90 - 120

Population 2% 2% 1%

Crude Oil Price per Milestone Year2011-2015 – 802016-2020 – 902021-2025 – 1002026-2030 – 120

Reference: IEA WEO 2008 – 2030

GDP – Based on DBCC

20

30

40

50MTOE

0

10

20

2008 2030 Reference 2030LowCarbon

Transport Industry Residential Commercial Agriculture

4050

60

7080

90MTOE

AAGR = 3.7% (2008-2030)

0

1020

30

40

2008 2030Reference

2030LowCarbon1

2030LowCarbon2

Coal Oil Natgas Hydro Geothermal Biomass Nuclear

120000

140000

160000

180000

h

Solar

Biomass

Wind

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

GW

h Hydro

Geothermal

Natural Gas

Oil‐based

Coal

100000

120000

140000

160000Solar

Biomass

Wind

Oil‐based

Hydro

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Hydro

Geothermal

Natural Gas

Coal

GW

h

100000

120000

140000

160000Nuclear

Solar

Biomass

Wind

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Wind

Oil‐based

Hydro

Geothermal

Coal

Natural Gas

GW

h

5/17/2010

11

100000

120000

140000

Wind

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

GW

h HydroGeoGasOilCoal

15000

20000

25000

Wind

0

5000

10000

15000

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

MW

WindHydroGeoGasOilCoal

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

Biomass

‐

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

MW Hydro

Geo

Oil

Coal

15 000

20,000

25,000

Bi

‐

5,000

10,000

15,000

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

GWh Biomass

Hydro

Geo

Oil

Coal

15 000

20,000

25,000

Solar

‐

5,000

10,000

15,000

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

GWh Hydro

Geo

Oil

Coal

01-pep 2009-2030 pcci presentation april 28 [compatibility mode]

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