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The 1966 Forth Road Bridge cost £20 millionThe 1966 Forth Road Bridge cost £20 million

Inflated to the year 2016the bridge should cost under £400 million

Inflated to the year 2016the bridge should cost under £400 million

So why was it priced at over £4,200 million?So why was it priced at over £4,200 million?

The Forth Replacement Crossing (FRC) is to be completed in 2016The Forth Replacement Crossing (FRC) is to be completed in 2016

Not the longest Around 25th from the top

Not the widest deck Others have 6 and 8 lanes

Not the longest span Around 7th from the top

Not the highest Millau bridge is 4 times higher

Not the most towers Only 3 , the Millau has 7

Not the longest viaducts Many are MILES long

Not environmentally difficult No earthquakes/ tornados

SECTION 1

World Bridges Comparison Graphs

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FRC-The FORTH REPLACEMENT CROSSINGThe MULTIMODAL option –pre Dec 2008 -

was to cost £4.22 Billion

Issue 3a 4/05/2009 omnie@tiscali.co.uk

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The Proposed Forth Bridge is to be a CABLE STAYED STRUCTUREThis slide gives a brief technical explanation.

Cable-stayed bridge

In the Cable-stayed bridge, the towers form the primary load-bearing structure. It does not require firm anchorages as in the suspension bridge. It requires less material and much can be pre-fabricated off -lower cost

In the Cable-stayed bridge, the towers form the primary load-bearing structure. It does not require firm anchorages as in the suspension bridge. It requires less material and much can be pre-fabricated off -lower cost

In the Suspension bridge, a large cable is made up by "spinning" small diameter wires between two towers, and at each end to anchorages into the ground. In the Suspension bridge, a large cable is made up by "spinning" small diameter wires between two towers, and at each end to anchorages into the ground.

Suspension bridge

Stays

Multimodal structureRoad & rail

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COST of ALL TYPES OF WORLD’s BRIDGES -£M

The FCS was going to be the most expensive bridge ever built.The FCS was going to be the most expensive bridge ever built.

NOTE : ALL COSTS USED ARE INFLATED TO 2016 PRICESNOTE : ALL COSTS USED ARE INFLATED TO 2016 PRICES

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COMPARATIVE LENGTH of WORLD BRIDGESCOMPARATIVE LENGTH of WORLD BRIDGES

The FRC is tiny: a mere 25th in world ranking..The FRC is tiny: a mere 25th in world ranking..

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10 Longest Bridges Ever Built

At £4,220 million the FRC was far costlier –even against these giants

The FRC is a tiny 2,700 metres

NOTE: Only one took 5 ½ Years to build

No Bridge Country Length m Year Build Cost £M

2016 1 Chesapeake Bay USA 7,000 1952 4 £4802 Seven Mile USA 10,887 1982 3 1/2 £643 San Mateo-Hayward USA 11,265 1967 4 £1824 Confederation USA 12,900 1977 3 1/2 £2,6045 Rio-Niteroi Brazil 13,290 1976 5 1/2 £2376 Penang Malay 13,500 1985 3 3/4 £3767 Vasco da Gama Portugal 17,200 1998 1 1/2 £8988 King Fahd Causeway Saudi 26,000 1986 3 3/4 £1,7979 Donghai China 32,500 2010 2 1/2 £600

10 Lake Pontchartrain USA 38,420 1969 5 £336

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COST of ONLY CABLE STAYED BRIDGES -£M

Again – the FRC isby far the most costly

Again – the FRC isby far the most costly

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COST OF BRIDGES PER METRE LENGTH -£100K

The average cost per metre is under £200KThe average cost per metre is under £200K

The FRC was £1,500K per metreThe FRC was £1,500K per metre

£1,563

THE ORESUND CROSSINGTHE ORESUND CROSSING

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The largest/longest Multimodal crossing ever built

The largest/longest Multimodal crossing ever built

SECTION 2

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The Oresund Crossing

Forth Bridge

The Oresund ProjectThis Megastructure links Sweden & DenmarkThis Megastructure links Sweden & Denmark

Artificial Island

Road & RailTunnel

7,850 metresRoad & RailBridge

4050 metres

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The Oresund CrossingSuperimposed in Fife

From South Queensferry to Kelty

16.4 Km

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An artificial island had to be constructed across the water to join the tunnel and the bridge

The Island is some 4 Km long

The FRC is 2.7Km long

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A 4 km tunnel was requiredto allow shipping access

The Tunnel has road and rail

It is submerged into the dredged sea bed.

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Finally the BridgeRoad & Rail (multimodal)

The longest such bridge in the world – over 7Km long

Almost 5 MILES

Almost 3 times longer than the FRC

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Comparing like for like•With prices inflated to 2016 prices.

•With full multimodal options.• With all access roads etc. included

Comparing like for like•With prices inflated to 2016 prices.

•With full multimodal options.• With all access roads etc. included

The Oresund Crossing cost £4.11 Billion *The Forth Crossing cost was priced at £4.22 Billion

The Oresund Crossing cost £4.11 Billion *The Forth Crossing cost was priced at £4.22 Billion

The FRC is estimated to be approx. 10% of size of the Oresund Crossing.The FRC is estimated to be approx.

10% of size of the Oresund Crossing.

Let’s now look at the relative costs

* The Government report has this at around 7.2% higher.

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Remember -the Oresund is 10 times greater than the FRCThe Oresund Project took ….5 ½ years

And what is the FRC scheduled to take??

Remember -the Oresund is 10 times greater than the FRCThe Oresund Project took ….5 ½ years

And what is the FRC scheduled to take??

Using Government advised data I have the Oresund cost at £4.11 BnTransport Scotland put the cost of the Oresund project at £4.43 Bn.Using Government advised data I have the Oresund cost at £4.11 BnTransport Scotland put the cost of the Oresund project at £4.43 Bn.

Don’t believe it?? Read on……

Don’t believe it?? Read on……

…5 ½ years

THIS FIGURE WAS GIVEN TO THE SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT ‘S (ALL PARTY)TRANSPORT COMMITTEE – THEY MADE NO COMMENT!!!THIS FIGURE WAS GIVEN TO THE SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT ‘S (ALL PARTY)TRANSPORT COMMITTEE – THEY MADE NO COMMENT!!!

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Professor John Kay.

BSc PhD FIET, C eng

Do you know this man?

Chosen Financial Adviserto the

SCOTTISHGOVERNMENT.

Commented….

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Public lecture – Sept 2007 on the FRC

“Expressed astonishment”

“..more than 4 times the final cost of the much longer Oresund bridge”

“..more than 4 times the final cost of the much longer Oresund bridge”

“10 times the cost of France's iconic Millau crossing”

“10 times the cost of France's iconic Millau crossing”

And if anyone thinks the initial cost… is likely to emerge as the final bill, ..they should think again.

And if anyone thinks the initial cost… is likely to emerge as the final bill, ..they should think again.

SECTION 3

If you have has enough you can log out now

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COMPARING THE FRC WITH THE SEVERN BRIDGE

The multimodal option was dropped in Dec 2008

IT DOEN’T GET ANY BETTER – READ ON >>>>

We can compare now compare it with a similar UK crossing

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Structural Comparisons

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Lengthm

Lanes RoadsKm

Severn 5200 6 18.5

Forth 2700 4 4

025

The 2016 cost is £750 MillionThe 2016 cost is £750 Million

The 1964 bridge cost £9 MillionThe 1964 bridge cost £9 Million

The 1996 bridge cost £330 Million+ £150 million for roads etc.The 1996 bridge cost £330 Million+ £150 million for roads etc.

Second Severn Crossing

Transport Scotland have it at £890 million

026

The Original Forth Bridge was built in 1966 costing £20MAt current costs - £300M The FRC is 8% longer – equates to £ 324MSo where do they arrive at £2,3400M???

The 2016 cost is £2,340 MillionThe 2016 cost is £2,340 Million

The 1966 bridge cost £20 MillionThe 1966 bridge cost £20 Million

A pro-rate 2016 bridge should cost under £500 MillionA pro-rate 2016 bridge should cost under £500 Million

027

The Original Forth Bridge was built in 1966 costing £20MAt current costs - £300M The FRC is 8% longer – equates to £ 324MSo where do they arrive at £2,3400M???

Lengthm

Lanes RoadsKm

BuildTime

Cost

Severn 5200 6 18.5 4 £750m

Forth 2700 4 4 5.5 £2,340m

Now remember the statistics

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Why was it rejected ?Why was it rejected ?

SECTION 4THE TUNNEL OPTION

SECTION 4THE TUNNEL OPTION

If you have has enough you can log out now

On 4th April 2000 a presentation by the contractors of the Scottish Parliament building was arranged for ALL politicians prior to the BIG DEBATE on the exploded costs

ONLY SEVENTEEN SMPs TURNED UP

On 15th January 2009 a debate to decide on the structure of the FRC – the largest Scottish project ever -took place in Holyrood.

ONLY SIXTEEN SMPs TURNED UP

First – a wee bit history

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Paragraph 3 detailed TUNNEL options, including• Bored tunnels•Immersed tunnels•Tunnel Alignment• Geology & Topology•Tunnel Services•Design Codes Standards etc•Compliance with UN/EC regulations

Paragraph 3 detailed TUNNEL options, including• Bored tunnels•Immersed tunnels•Tunnel Alignment• Geology & Topology•Tunnel Services•Design Codes Standards etc•Compliance with UN/EC regulations

This extremely detailed 120 page report was commission to examine FRC optionsThis extremely detailed 120 page report was commission to examine FRC options

This was NOT a preliminary exploration , it was a detailed examination of all aspects of which tunnel would be most appropriateThis was NOT a preliminary exploration , it was a detailed examination of all aspects of which tunnel would be most appropriate

Several detailed drawings were produced illustrating the detailed study…..Several detailed drawings were produced illustrating the detailed study…..

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CONCLUSIONCONCLUSION

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EXTRACT“Tunnel options adjacent to the existing bridges would also have been more expensive than a bridge ……….”

EXTRACT“Tunnel options adjacent to the existing bridges would also have been more expensive than a bridge ……….”

AND WHAT WAS THEIR ESTIMATED COST….?AND WHAT WAS THEIR ESTIMATED COST….?

£598M£598M

Moving forward from Jan 2005 to Dec 2007 this cost rose TENFOLD………Moving forward from Jan 2005 to Dec 2007 this cost rose TENFOLD………

Don’t believe it ? Read on…Don’t believe it ? Read on…

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•· Cable-stayed bridge £3.25 billion - £4.22 billion•· Suspension bridge £3.62 billion - £4.70 billion•· Bored Tunnel £5.12 billion - £6.60 billion

•· Cable-stayed bridge £3.25 billion - £4.22 billion•· Suspension bridge £3.62 billion - £4.70 billion•· Bored Tunnel £5.12 billion - £6.60 billion

Finance and Sustainable Growth Secretary

John SwinneyScottish Parliament

Wednesday, December 19, 2007

Do you know what the Channel (bored) tunnel cost??The gigantic ,31.4 mile (50Km), twin rail crossing with service / safety tunnel

The official cost (not mine) was…£4.65 billion

At current prices it is…… £10. 2 billion So there we have it - a mere one mile river Fife crossing was to cost more than 60% that of a gigantic 26 mile sea crossing.

NOT ONE PARLIAMENTARIAN QUESTIONED THIS !!!!!

I have set out the cost estimates for the options…..

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Finally a look at other world bridges for comparisons

Finally a look at other world bridges for comparisons

SECTION 5WORLD BRIDGES

SECTION 5WORLD BRIDGES

Is the FRC really so expensive?Is the FRC really so expensive?

If you have has enough you can log out now

035

RECENT WORLDWIDE BRIDGE PROJECTS

Q E II Bridge DARTFORD

Opened in 1991 at a cost of £86Million

Q E II Bridge DARTFORD

Opened in 1991 at a cost of £86Million

036

Lengthm

Lanes Towers

BuildTime

Cost2016

Q E II 2877 4 2 3 £139mForth 2700 4 3 5.5 £2,340m

10% longer and only 6% of the cost of the FRCThe Forth Bridge Engineering management contract alone cost £100M?

10% longer and only 6% of the cost of the FRCThe Forth Bridge Engineering management contract alone cost £100M?

MILLAU VIADUCTFrance

Opened in 2004at a cost of

€349m

MILLAU VIADUCTFrance

Opened in 2004at a cost of

€349m

037

Lengthm

Lanes Towers

BuildTime

Cost2016

Millau 2460 4 7 3 £319mForth 2700 4 3 5.5 £2,340mHighest Bridge in the world – over 270 metres high – 7 remarkable towers.Opened only 4 years ago and breaking many world records in technologyOf course it is vastly different – but why the huge price difference???

Highest Bridge in the world – over 270 metres high – 7 remarkable towers.Opened only 4 years ago and breaking many world records in technologyOf course it is vastly different – but why the huge price difference???

BOB GRAHAMFlorida

Opened in 1987at a cost of $244

BOB GRAHAMFlorida

Opened in 1987at a cost of $244

038

Lengthm

Lanes Towers

BuildTime

Cost2016

BOB GRAHAM

8851 4 2 4 £367m

Forth 2700 4 3 5.5 £2,340mThis Cable Stayed bridge has no outstanding features worthy of comment –exceptIt’s over 3 times the length of the FRC and cost the Americans only 15% of what we are expected to pay

This Cable Stayed bridge has no outstanding features worthy of comment –exceptIt’s over 3 times the length of the FRC and cost the Americans only 15% of what we are expected to pay

Arthur RavenelS. Carolina

Opened in 2005at a cost of $541

Arthur RavenelS. Carolina

Opened in 2005at a cost of $541

039

Lengthm

Lanes Towers

BuildTime

Cost2016

ArthurRavenel

4023 8 2 4 £392m

Forth 2700 4 3 5.5 £2,340mThis Cable Stayed bridge has EIGHT lanesAgain we have a much larger structure at under half a billion.This Cable Stayed bridge has EIGHT lanesAgain we have a much larger structure at under half a billion.

VASCO de GAMAOpened in 1998

at a cost of $1000m

VASCO de GAMAOpened in 1998

at a cost of $1000m

040

Lengthm

Lanes Towers

BuildTime

Cost2016

Vasco de Gama

17200 6 2 1.5 £941m

Forth 2700 4 3 5.5 £2,340mThe bridge was opened to traffic …18 months after construction first began 6 lanes; 120 year life; wind shielding etc. etc. and over 10 miles long.ALL FOR 40% OF THE COST

The bridge was opened to traffic …18 months after construction first began 6 lanes; 120 year life; wind shielding etc. etc. and over 10 miles long.ALL FOR 40% OF THE COST

HANGZOU BAYChina

Opened in 2008at a cost of $1700

HANGZOU BAYChina

Opened in 2008at a cost of $1700

041

Lengthm

Lanes Towers

BuildTime

Cost2016

Hangzou Bay

35,673 6 2 4 £1081m

Forth 2700 4 3 5.5 £2,340mThe bridge is the second longest cable stayed bridge in the world6 lanes wide, 22 miles long and built in FOUR years – How can a tiny wee bridge at less than 10% this size take much longer to build at twice the cost

The bridge is the second longest cable stayed bridge in the world6 lanes wide, 22 miles long and built in FOUR years – How can a tiny wee bridge at less than 10% this size take much longer to build at twice the cost

PONT de NORMANDIE

FranceOpened in 1995

For $465

PONT de NORMANDIE

FranceOpened in 1995

For $465

042

Lengthm

Lanes Towers

BuildTime

Cost2016

PONT de NORMANDIE 2143 4 2 7 £567mForth 2700 4 3 5.5 £2,340mThe bridge is the longest Cable Stayed bridge in the world.Even with the extended build time it still came in at a QUARTER of the cost.The bridge is the longest Cable Stayed bridge in the world.Even with the extended build time it still came in at a QUARTER of the cost.

Akashi Kaikyo Japan

Opened in 1998For $4,300

Akashi Kaikyo Japan

Opened in 1998For $4,300

043

Lengthm

Lanes Towers

BuildTime

Cost2016

Akashi Kaikyo 3911 4 2 7 £4,050m

Forth 2700 4 3 5.5 £2,340mIt is the longest, tallest, and most expensive suspension bridge ever built.The FRC would have been dearer at £4,220; we would have had

THE WORLD’S MOST EXPENSIVE BRIDGE EVER

It is the longest, tallest, and most expensive suspension bridge ever built.The FRC would have been dearer at £4,220; we would have had

THE WORLD’S MOST EXPENSIVE BRIDGE EVER

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We now review the costings given out for the bridge

We now review the costings given out for the bridge

Is this contract under tight control? – you judge……

Is this contract under tight control? – you judge……

If you have has enough you can log out now

SECTION 5COSTING HISTORY

SECTION 5COSTING HISTORY

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No Date Source Cost

2 Jan 05 Faber and Maunsell £500 m

1 Jun 04 FETA £500 m

3 Feb 07 Scottish Government £1,000+ m

4 Dec 07 Scottish Government £2,790 to £3,630 m

5 Jan 08 Scottish Government £3,250 to £4.220 m

6 Dec 08 Scottish Government £1,720 TO £2.340 m

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Jacobs and Maunsell’s 121 page report/survey for FETA in Jan 2005

Extract 1 – Multimodal bridge

Cost in 2005 £516 Million

Cost in 2007 £4,220 Million

European Journal Management contract

TS estimate £30 to £60 Million

Contact let at £100 Million

Extract 2 – Tunnel

Estimated cost £598 Million

Cost now £6,600 Million

European Journal Construction estimate

TS estimate £1 Billion +

Cost currently £4,220 Million

Extract 3 – Windshielding

Cost in 2005 £1.5 Million

Cost in 2007 £8.5 Million

Tender details from Transport ScotlandConstruction

And the contract hasn’t even started yet.

And the contract hasn’t even started yet.

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LAND-MANAGEMENT-THE BRIDGE-ACCESS ROADS

BREAK DOWN OF COSTS of £4,220M PROJECT

THE BRIDGEA letter to me from Transport Scotland gave a multimodal bridge (across the water) cost at £1,200M Balance £2,900 Million

THE BRIDGEA letter to me from Transport Scotland gave a multimodal bridge (across the water) cost at £1,200M Balance £2,900 Million

LANDThe Government already own large areas needed and indications are that land costs are not significant – say £20MBalance £4,200 Million

LANDThe Government already own large areas needed and indications are that land costs are not significant – say £20MBalance £4,200 Million

MANAGEMENTAlready let at the huge sum of £100 millionBalance £4,100 Million

MANAGEMENTAlready let at the huge sum of £100 millionBalance £4,100 Million

ACCESS ROADSThis leaves 17Km of access roads to a pay for……ACCESS ROADSThis leaves 17Km of access roads to a pay for……

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BREAK DOWN OF COSTS of £4,220M PROJECT

OUTSTANDING BALANCE

£2,700 million – WHAT’S IT FOR??OUTSTANDING BALANCE

£2,700 million – WHAT’S IT FOR??

ACCESS ROADS (calculation 1) -17Km dual carriage wayThe A9000 completed in 2008 cost £4.6 million for 4.6 Km – A pro rata price for the FRC would be £132 million . Inflated to 2016 it would be less than £200 Million

ACCESS ROADS (calculation 1) -17Km dual carriage wayThe A9000 completed in 2008 cost £4.6 million for 4.6 Km – A pro rata price for the FRC would be £132 million . Inflated to 2016 it would be less than £200 Million

ACCESS ROADS (calculation 2)-17Km Full motorwayThe average cost of a MOTORWAY in the UK is £30M per mile UK (Gov Statistic.) The FRC access road is NOT motorway standard, however even allowing for a 6 lane highway the cost also should be £200 million

ACCESS ROADS (calculation 2)-17Km Full motorwayThe average cost of a MOTORWAY in the UK is £30M per mile UK (Gov Statistic.) The FRC access road is NOT motorway standard, however even allowing for a 6 lane highway the cost also should be £200 million

NOTEThe M74 is currently the UKs most expensive motorway at £140m per mile. The next most expensive in Ireland &England are well under £50MThat’s another story…….

NOTEThe M74 is currently the UKs most expensive motorway at £140m per mile. The next most expensive in Ireland &England are well under £50MThat’s another story…….

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In Dec 2008 they cheered a cost reduction of £1.88 Bn ????Let’s try again…..

THE BRIDGEFaber &Maunsell reduced the multimodal to the “road only” by 0.25%**i.e. From £1,2000 million to £900 million**Saving £300 million

THE BRIDGEFaber &Maunsell reduced the multimodal to the “road only” by 0.25%**i.e. From £1,2000 million to £900 million**Saving £300 million

LANDThe Government already own large areas needed and indications are that land costs are not significant – say £20MNo Saving

LANDThe Government already own large areas needed and indications are that land costs are not significant – say £20MNo Saving

MANAGEMENTAlready let at the huge sum of £100 million still standsNo Saving

MANAGEMENTAlready let at the huge sum of £100 million still standsNo Saving

** From £516 million to £381 million –Faber Mausell Jan 2005 report PP 64

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TRANSPORT SCOTLAND HAVE THE SAVINGS AT

£1,880 million – where are the other savings?TRANSPORT SCOTLAND HAVE THE SAVINGS AT

£1,880 million – where are the other savings?

TOTAL SAVINGS£450 million TOTAL SAVINGS£450 million

ACCESS ROADS 1 -4.Km dual carriage wayThe A900 completed in 2008 cost £4.6 million for 4.6 Km – Virtually the same for the. Inflated to 2016 the savings would be around £150 millionSavings £150 million

ACCESS ROADS 1 -4.Km dual carriage wayThe A900 completed in 2008 cost £4.6 million for 4.6 Km – Virtually the same for the. Inflated to 2016 the savings would be around £150 millionSavings £150 million

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Is Prof. Hay correct. Is the Bridge on Schedule?Is Prof. Hay correct. Is the Bridge on Schedule?

March – 2009 Sunday Herald…running at least five months behind schedule.

March – 2009 Sunday Herald…running at least five months behind schedule.

The financing of the project - is already in disarrayThe financing of the project - is already in disarray

TS’s own internal documents also raise serious doubts….TS’s own internal documents also raise serious doubts….

Built in China TS is looking at ways to save money….Built in China TS is looking at ways to save money….

“Guy Houston, former finance director of the government agency Transport Scotland, who mysteriously resigned”…..“Guy Houston, former finance director of the government agency Transport Scotland, who mysteriously resigned”…..

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“Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.”

Aldous Huxley