Global civil society combining forces to confront the degradation of our life support systems and the interconnections among the greatest threats to human well-being…

The Must Haves for a Sustainable 2050

Mohammad  Zaidi  Executive  Vice  President  and  Chief  Technical  Officer  (ret)

Alcoa  

Idar  Kreutzer  CEO    

Storebrand    

Robert  E.  HornHuman  Science  and  Technology  Advanced  Research  Institute  (H-­STAR)  

Stanford  University

Paul  Ehrlich  Bing  Professor  of  Population  Studies

Stanford  University

Introduction  by  Donald  Kennedy

President  emeritus,  Stanford  University  

Report 2012 -­ 1

http://mahb.stanford.edu/

Introduction

This report describes an 18-month World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) project, Vision 2050. The vision was formed by a technique of backcasting past events, to evaluate the plausibility of reaching a reasonably sustainable world in 2050. The team comprised of 29 senior strategists representing 29 diverse companies. Its leadership included two of the co-authors of the present report: Idar Kreutzer, CEO of Storebrand, a large Norwegian financial services company. and Mohammad Zaidi, who was until the latter part of 2011, the Executive Vice President and Chief Technical Officer of Alcoa, one of the world's leading aluminum companies. They were joined by two CEOs from WBCSD member companies, Price Waterhouse Coopers and Syngenta.

The project is causing major strategic re-thinking among the 200 member companies in the World Business Council, and has generated thoughtful discussions in proceedings conducted by the United Nations, OECD, and a variety of academic institutions. That WBCSD has led the way on this project is especially significant given that its member companies have $7 trillion in annual revenues (comparison: China’s GDP at current exchange rate is $5.8 trillion).

An important focus of the Report is to call out the urgency that is being felt by WBCSD member companies, and their concern that we must bring together many elements of global society to accomplish its objectives. The Report emphasizes the challenge of bringing together government, business, and NGOs to accomplish the very difficult 40 “must-haves “ that the Report’s analysis shows to be essential if we hope to be on track to achieve a sustainable 2050. The World Business Council for Sustainable Development completed the Vision 2050 project in February of 2010. It stands as the most comprehensive set of milestones and one of the most plausible visions of the future of human civilization. The two authors of the Report, Kreutzer and Zaidi, have joined with Stanford University professor of Biological Science, Paul Ehrlich, and Bob Horn, a visiting scholar at Stanford, to go beyond the WBCSD report. Here we try to summarize the strategic implications of the work done by the Vision 2050 project. What’s especially significant about it is the clear indication that the companies in the WBSCD have achieved agreement on a new concept that represents a turning point – a way of thinking about our collective future in which business are prepared to commit themselves to be part of sustainable future. We think the identification of a critical 40 “must haves” to make that destination a real prospect is an extraordinary accomplishment. To fulfill its promise about the future, others will need to explore the clusters that represent key elements in each of those critical objectives – in short, supporting the new directions necessary for us to reach a sustainable 2050. This reminds us that we are now well into the year that marks the 20th anniversary of the Earth Summit in Rio in 1992.

The other major advance represented in this report is the way in which it brings together representatives of two major institutions in our civilization that often have been at odds with each other. Two of its authors represent the forward-looking business community; another, my colleague Paul Ehrlich, a spokesman for decades on the part of the scholarly community supporting environmental responsibility. These authors, among whom I am proud to count myself, agree that there is a singular need for diverse institutions in our civilization to do the urgent work of confronting climate change, social inertia, and the other challenges that confront the prospect of sustainability. We are pleased to make this report the first in the series that the Millennium Alliance for Humanity and the Biosphere (MAHB) will be producing. We hope that it will inspire representatives of governments, academic institutions, non-government organizations and business communities to work together in more fruitful ways to accomplish the 40 must-haves. Don Kennedy

President emeritus , Stanford University,

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ENERGY AND POWER - Meet increasing demand while stabilizing global temperature increase to 2 degrees Celsius – equivalent to approx. 450 ppm CO2 in atmosphere

1- Energy R&D increases rapidly

2- Major collection of international agreements on climate and energy Not necessarily treaties, but perhaps bilateral and multilateral agreements

-3 Carbon has a price - cap & trade or carbon tax begin to transform electric power generation Maybe through a comprehensive treaty or perhaps a series of multilateral agreements

4- Carbon sequestration funded for rapid deployment

5- Distorting energy subsidies phased out and increased international cooperation in deploying low-carbon technology occurs

6.

12- Policy makers and industry partner to speed up research into and deployment of alternative drivetrains and advanced biofuels

13- Integrated rail networks spread. Infrastructure investments keep up with growing demand of passenger and freight transport

14- Sustainable biofuels for aviation are fully tested and begin to be used Governments help to ensure - Sufficient and steady biofuel supply through early incentives - Aviation is allocated necessary share of biofuel supply despite competition with other forms of transportation - Cost does not exceed petroleum-based jet fuel

15- Vehicle users adopt more efficient driving behavior, stimulated through information campaigns

16- Improved energy efficiency in shipping is achieved through holistic approaches to transport chain performance

MATERIALS - Closed-loop society

17- Global business and governments agree on a set of indicators & rules for accounting about resources, energy and materials. These rules establish the true cost of primary and secondary materials.

18- New landfill legislation begins to set standards for recycling and reuse

19- Industrial-application Carbon Capture and Storage-- Develop legal and regulatory frameworks, to include liability clarity for CO2-- R&D to reduce capture costs, determine storage integrity, monitoring-- Greater public awareness of benefits and cost

GLOBAL ECONOMY, FINANCE, & BUSINESS MODELS - Transform contemporary industrial capitalism into sustainable capitalism

20- Externalities internalized and investors incorporate rapidly new accounting standards into risk and opportunity decision-making. These accounting changes enable companies to measure both positive and negative impacts on ecosystem services

21- Global price on carbon internalizes major costs of CO2 and other emissions

22- Technology transfer for energy and some other areas such as food is successfully implemented. Collaboration between government leaders from major economies in both North and South lead to creation of a global venture capital fund to commercialize clean energy and food technologies. The fund licenses intellectual property and sells technol-ogy to countries on terms that vary according to their average per capita GDP. This is supported by concessional terms for developing countries (Or some other approach that is efficient and effective and meets same goals)

GOVERNANCE - Enable transformations in global economy and planetary sustainability by 2050

23- Major collection of international agreements on climate and energyNot necessarily treaties, but at minimum bilateral and multilateral agreements

BUILDINGS - Energy efficient and comfortable living and working spaces

7- Energy Efficiency (Buildings and Appliances) - Implementation of mandatory minimum efficiency performance standards - Revisit international standards periodically to ensue continuous improvement - No delays in legislation of strong regulations and enforcement is the most cost-effective policy Key Areas of International Collaboration: -Common standards set to discourage trade in sub efficient appliances.

MOBILITY - Low carbon

8-Development and deployment of efficient internal combustion vehicles improve new-vehicle carbon intensity up to 30-40%, enabled by better policies and introduction of Electric Vehicles (EV)/ Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV)

9- Integrated urban planning, especially in the fast-growing cities, improves transport and allows for more choice among appropriate modes

10-Transportation energy efficiency:- Mandatory efficiency standards; eventually harmonized globally at highest efficiency level- Incentives for new technology other than increasing size, weight or power- Standards set for medium and heavy duty trucks (logistics, onroad

The 40 Must-­Haves for this DecadeRequired to be on Track for a Sustainable 2050

Approx. Amount of Energy Infrastructure Built

During 2010-­2020 (World wide)

Coal-­fired  with  CCSGas-­fired  with  CCSNuclearHydroBiomass  plantsWind-­onshoreWind-­offshoreGeothermalSolar  PhotovoltaicConcentrated  Solar

105802050

4000050002002000300

500    mw  CCS  plants500    mw  CCS  plants1000    mw  nuclear  plants5000    mw  dams50    mw  biomass  plants4    mw  wind  turbines4    mw  wind  turbines100    mw  geothermal  units50  mw  installations250  mw  installations

UnitsTotal by 2020

Approx.  Milestones  for  staying  below  2oC  (average  global  temperature)

6

Appendix  A

24- A more effective summit of the Major Economies begins to meet on a quarterly basis Discusses existing and potential global challenges including security. G8 plus outreach 5: Brazil, China, India, South Africa and Mexico plus Indonesia, Turkey, Egypt or Nigeria.- PEOPLE: VALUES, BEHAVIORS, AND DEVELOPMENT - Well on the way to meeting basic needs of all people by 2050

25- Universal primary and secondary education has begun to shift fertility rates to around replacement levels. More women are educated and engaged in economic activities, leading to improved health of women and their children

26- Reproductive choice, contraception, family planning available virtually everywhere on the planet

AGRICULTURE - Feed 9 Billion People by 2050

27- To feed 9 billion people by 2050, food, feed, fibre, and fuel output must increase two-fold, growing 2% annually without increasing the negative environmental impact and if possible not use any more land for agriculture.

28- Asian, Pacific water efficiency doubles

29- Freer trade in agricultural products, in order to maximize production of food and agricultural products on a global scale

30- Wheat production doubles. World's second biggest crop in volume and represents the greatest challenge for reversing the trend of declining yield growth. Currently rate of yield gain in wheat has been falling faster than any other crop. New technologies, especially in Eastern Europe and Africa, reverse this decline

FOREST - Sufficient timber and fuel for 9 billion people by 2050 while reducing carbon emission significantly

31- The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) releases the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD) report. Without REDD, the 2 degree C climate stabilization goal will not be met

32- Commitments to deep carbon reductions by industrialized countries to create demand for REDD+ carbon credits.

33- Major actions addressed by REDD+ begin to be implemented:- Provide financial incentives to local people for conservation and expansion of ecosystem services from primary and modified natural forests.- Procedures for setting emissions levels- Methodologies for monitoring, reporting and verification- Processes to promote the participation of indigenous peoples and local communities

34- Shift production from modified natural forest to planted forest by tripling planted forest yields by 2050

ECOSYSTEMS & BIODIVERSITY - Maintain and restore

36- Improved NATURAL LITERACY - Increased knowledge and attention on ecosystem services A range of in-depth and comprehensive multi-year studies have deepened our understanding of the functioning of the full range of ecosystem services. Widespread media attention of such studies has contributed to a greater focus on the protection and enhance-ment of ecosystem services.

37- Donor countries increase the investment in rural communities in and around protected areas to grow their economic base and reward biodiver-sity protection. This provides the kind of protection that the market can not provide alone

38- Business, NGOs, governments agree on ecosystem valuation methods including valuing the global commons (e.g. eco-services of oceans, forests, atmosphere, etc.

39-Seed banks and botanical gardens all over the world work closely together to preserve most of today's biodiversity

40-Fair pricing of ecosystem services

35-

The 40 Must-­Haves for this DecadeRequired to be on Track for a Sustainable 2050

MacroVU®  AnalyticsRobert E. Horn

hornbob@earthlink.net

Planted  forest  carbon  stock

Primary  forest  carbon  stock

Natural  forest  carbon  stock

30  Gt

147  Gt

203  Gt

25%

4%

10%

Increaseover  2010

Totalcarbonstock

Approx.  Increase  in  Carbon  Stock  in  World  Forests

Approx.  Milestones  -­  2020   35

International  governance  begins  to  shift  from  treaties  to  cooperative  issue  networks  and  more  frequent  trust-­building  summits  and  mini-­summitsRepresentatives  from  governments,  

NGOs,  UN  and  business  collaborate  on  

issues

GOVERNANCE -­ Enable transformations in global economy

Global

Issues

Networks

Growing awareness of need to cooperate Big  risk

Internationalterrorismnetworksincrease

Big  risk

Massive rise of

international

drug and crime

organizations

PEOPLE: VALUES, BEHAVIOURS, AND DEVELOPMENT -­ Eco-­aware  consumers  lead  selection  of  products,  services,  and  leisure  activities  based  on  efficiency,  ecological  and  social  impacts,  reinforcement  of  individual  work-­life  balance,  community  needs,  and  global  resilience

If  not  NOW,WHEN?

Sometime  during  this  decade        New  

“people  and  planet”  movement  leaders  

emerge.    Many  societal  actors  take  

responsibility  for  deeper  

“ecological-­awareness  education”  to  

encourage  changes  in  perceptions  and  

behaviour  by  the  end  of  the  decade.    New  

measures  of  personal  success  beyond  

financial  status  become  more  popular

PeoplePlanet

Required  to  be  on  track  for  a  sustainable  2050

Universal  primary  and  secondary  education  has  begun  to  shift  fertility  rates  to  around  replacement  levels.  More  women  are  educated  and  engaged  in  economic  activities,  leading  to  improved  health  of  women  and  their  children

Eco-­awareness spreads rapidly

AGRICULTURE -­ Feed 9 Billion People by 20502nd generationbiofuels hit market.Cellulosicsconverted  into  biofuels  greatly  improves  fuel  efficiency,  frees  up  cropland,  alleviatesfood/fuel  conflict,  and  diminishes  carbon  footprint

Assumption: Better use of freshwater.Most  efficient  way  of  increasing  the  efficiency  of  water  use  in  agriculture  is  through  increasing  yields  and  requires  extracting  the  maximum  yield  per  drop.

Increasing  knowledge  in  agriculture  continuously  optimizes  input  efficiency. Farmersmanage  the  landscape,  and  need  technical  support,  access  to  capital,  access  to  markets  and  information  to  build  capacity  for  higher  productivity  and  natural  resource  efficiency.Wide  acceptance  of  existing  technology.

Russia  &  Ukraine  triple  wheat  yield  via  professionalizationof  farming

3x

Required  to  be  on  

track  for  a  

sustainable  2050

Asian,  Pacific  waterefficiencydoubles2x

Doubling & tripling of yields

Required  to  be  on  track  for  a  sustainable  

2050 To feed 9 billion people by 2050, food, feed, fibre, and fuel output must increase two-­fold, growing 2% annually without increasing the negative environmental impact and ifpossible not use any more land foragriculture. $Xsubsidies

With the successful completion of the WTO Doha round, large agricultural subsidies are discontinued boosting production in Latin America, Eastern Europe and Africa

Increased  demand  for  building  materials  and  other  wood  products,  forest  biomass  for  power  generation  and  fuel  drives  greater  production.  

Planted  forest  carbon  stock

Primary  forest  carbon  stock

Natural  forest  carbon  stock

24  Gt

142  Gt

185  Gt

Total  carbon  stock

Approx. Amount  of  Carbon  Stock  in  World  Forests

By  the  end  of  the  decade   Major actions addressed by

REDD+ begin to be implemented:

-­ Provide financial incentives to local people for

conservation and expansion of ecosystem

services from primary and modified natural

forests.

-­ Procedures for setting emissions levels

-­ Methodologies for monitoring, reporting and

verification

-­ Processes to promote the participation of

indigenous peoples and local communities

REDD+

in

Action

Carbon

storage

benefits of

wood

products

are

recognized

in carbon

markets

$

FOREST -­ Sufficient timber and fuel for 9 billion peopleGlobal action on deforestation

$$

ECOSYSTEMS & BIODIVERSITY -­ Maintain and restore

This  will  take  time,  but  is  required  to  be  on  track  for  a  sustainable  2050Improved NATURAL LITERACY -­ Increased knowledge and attention on ecosystem services A  range  of  in-­depth  and  comprehensive  multi-­year  studies  have  deepened  our  understanding  of  the  functioning  of  the  full  range  of  ecosystem  services.  Widespread  media  attention  of  such  studies  has  contributed  to  a  greater  focus  on  the  protection  and  enhancement  of  ecosystem  services.

Natural literacy spreads

Fresh  water  

GreenproductsCultural

Clean  air   Sequestercarbon

Eco-­systemServices

Source:  Global  Footprint  Network

This  is  our  currentsituation

0.6

1.21.00.8

1.61.4

1.8

0.20.4

2.0By  the  early  2020s  we'll  

need  2  planets.  Red

line  is  projected  

footprint  beyond

biocapacity

Current  overshoot  

beyond

biocapacity

(approx.  40%  of  a  

planet)

2.2

1960 20201980 2000 2040

Numb

er  of  planets  

For  the  past  25  years,  humans  have  

exceeded  global  biocapacity  

Total  amount  of  carbon  storage  in  wood  products

E.g.  Global  stock  of  carbon  stored  in  wood  in  buildings,furniture,  etc.

Probably  necessary  to  

be  on  track  to  a  

sustainable  2050  

Commitments to

deep carbon

reductions by

industrialized

countries to

create demand

for REDD+ carbon

credits.

CO2

REDD+

Probably  necessary  for  scenario  to  be  "on  track"  for  2050    A more effective summit of the Major Economies begins to meet on a quarterly basis Discusses existing and potential global challenges including security. G8 plus outreach 5: Brazil, China, India, South Africa and Mexico plus Indonesia, Turkey, Egypt or

MAJOR

ECONOMIES

MEETING

(MEM)summit meets

often

Required  to  be  on  track  for  a  

sustainable  2050 The United

Nations Framework Convention

on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

releases the Reducing Emissions

from Deforestation and forest

Degradation (REDD) report.

Without REDD, the 2 degree C

climate stabilization goal will not

be met

REDD+

Required  to  be  on  track  for  a  sustainable  

2050 Major collection

of international

agreements on

climate and energyNot  necessarily  treaties,  but  at  minimum  bilateral  and  multilateral  agreements  

21  million  tons

©  2011  WBCSD  and  R.E.Horn    -­  hornbob@earthlink.net

The World Business Council for Sustainable Development info-­mural -­

Pathway to a Sustainable 2050

Appendix  B

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