The dimensions of exclusion framework

Education indicators in the HDI:Expected years of schooling andmean years of schoolingFriedrich HueblerUNESCO Institute for Statistics

Workshop on Measuring Human DevelopmentEschborn, 14 June 2013Indicator 1: School life expectancySLE is the UIS term for expected years of schoolingDefinition: SLE = number of years a child of school entrance age can expect to spend in a given level of educationExample: SLE for primary to secondary education4 grades of primary, 8 grades of secondary educationAll children complete secondary educationAll children repeat one gradeSLE for primary to secondary education = 13 yearsSlide 1 of 102School life expectancy at age a for level l in year tEnrolment of population at age i in level l in year tPopulation of age i in year tCalculation of SLESLE = sum of age specific enrolment rates for a given level of education

Slide 2 of 10Enrolment of unknown age in level l in year tSchool-age population for level l in year tTheoretical duration of level l in year t

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SLE for primary to tertiary education, 2008-2012Source: UIS database, June 2013. Latest available data for 139 countries.SLE ISCED 1-6:Min. 4.6 yearsMean 13.2 yearsMax. 19.7 yearsSlide 3 of 104Interpretation of SLE: Factors to considerTreatment of pre-primary educationUIS excludes enrolment in ISCED 0Starting age for calculation of SLEUIS considers enrolment of all ages (0 years and older)Small effect: small enrolment divided by large populationRepetitionHigh number of repeaters means more years spent in schoolAlternative: SLE net of repetitionAdult educationIncluded in calculation of SLE for some countries until 2003Full-time equivalentNo distinction between part-time and full-time educationEnrolment and population from different sources of dataChanges in education systems over timeSlide 4 of 105School life expectancy at age a for level l in year tEnrolment of population at age i in level l in year tPopulation of age i in year tEnrolment of unknown age in level l in year tSchool-age population for level l in year tTheoretical duration of level l in year tRepeaters in level l in year tCalculation of SLE net of repetition

Slide 5 of 10Note: SLEN can only be calculated for ISCED levels 1 to 3. No data on repeaters for higher levels.6

SLE and SLE net of repetition, ISCED 1-3, 2008-2012Source: UIS database, June 2013. Latest available data for 124 countries.Difference SLE SLEN:Min. 0 yearsMean 0.49 yearsMax. 4.03 yearsSlide 6 of 107Indicator 2: Mean years of schoolingDefinition: average number of completed years of education of a population (HDI: 25 years and older)Indicator not yet produced by UISGoal: first UIS MYS database by October 2013, in collaboration with HDROUIS has data on educational attainment for years since 1946Annual UIS survey on educational attainment: Highest level of education completed for population 10 years and older

Slide 7 of 108Calculation of MYSSimilar approach as Barro and Lee (1993, 2010)

Example:4 grades of primary, 8 grades of secondary education50% completed primary education50% completed secondary educationMYS = 0.54 + 0.5(4+8) = 2 + 6 = 8 years

Mean years of schoolingNumber of years of schooling for level lShare of population for which level l is highest level attained

Slide 8 of 109ChallengesLimited data coverageExample: Sub-Saharan Africa: no data for 28 of 45 countriesCombination of levels of attainmentExample: Austria: 25% completed lower secondary (includes no schooling, incomplete primary, completed primary)Limited data on incomplete levels of educationNo data on percentage of population that started but did not complete ISCED levels 2 to 6No data on years completed of incomplete levels of educationLimited data on years spent in tertiary educationChanges in education systems over timeForeign qualifications not always captured

Slide 9 of 1010MYS: Next steps for UISCollection and analysis of educational attainment dataReview existing databaseCollect and analyse data from additional sources, including household surveysRevise UIS questionnaire on educational attainment to reflect changes in ISCED 2011, ask for data on MYSMethodologyTest UIS model for MYS calculation, interpolation, projectionDocument UIS methodologyConvene expert group to review and validate methodologyDisseminationDisseminate first set of UIS MYS estimates by October 2013Expand UIS databaseEstablish country review of MYS data

Slide 10 of 1011Contact informationFriedrich HueblerProgramme SpecialistEducation Indicators and Data AnalysisUNESCO Institute for Statisticsf.huebler@unesco.orgwww.uis.unesco.org12