0401\s335_01 ms&e 290, stanford university 1 environmental policy: introduction and personal...

$: 0401\S335_01 MS&E 290, Stanford University 1 Environmental Policy: Introduction and Personal Overview D. Warner North MS&E 290 Tuesday, February 11, 2003$
0401\S335_01MS&E 290, Stanford University 1

Environmental Policy: Introduction and Personal Overview

D. Warner North

MS&E 290

Tuesday, February 11, 2003


Quote from Sunday Paper

Header for “Insight” Section of

The San Francisco Chronicle, Feb 9, 2003


Quotes from Harold Gilliam

Ask students, for example, to comment on Henry David Thoreau's succinct diagnosis: "All our inventions are improved means to an unimproved end."

Could any words more accurately pinpoint a central irony of our own time, when our best efforts are focused on the means -- the technology -- with little thought for the ends? We keep hearing that the greatest need in the school curriculum is for more science and math. Thoreau would groan; science and math are means, not ends.

-- Harold Gilliam, “Insight” Section of The San Francisco Chronicle, Feb 9, 2003,

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2003/02/09/IN114910.DTL


Overview of the Environment: Reference

Bjorn Lomberg, The Skeptical Environmentalist: Measuring the Real State of the World, Cambridge University Press, 2001

513 pages, including 2930 footnotes, 70 page bibliography!

Author is a statistician, former member of Greenpeace, born in 1965

Website for corrections, commentary: www.lomborg.org


Social Cost of Air Pollution

Source: North and Merkhofer, Computers and Operations Research, 1976


Economic and Social Costs of Air Pollution

Source: North and Merkhofer, Computers and Operations Research, 1976


Economic and Social Costs of Nuclear Power

Source: Barrager, Judd, &North, “The Economic and Social Costs of Coal and Nuclear Electric Generation: A Framework for Assessment and Illustrative Calculations for the Coal and Nuclear Fuel Cycles, Report for the

National Science Foundation, 1976


Social Costs of Electric Power from Coal

Source: Barrager, Judd, & North, “The Economic and Social Costs of Coal and Nuclear Electric Generation: A Framework for Assessment and Illustrative Calculations for the Coal and Nuclear Fuel Cycles, Report for the



Social Costs of Electric Power from Coal: by Location

Source: Barrager, Judd, & North, “The Economic and Social Costs of Coal and Nuclear Electric Generation: A Framework for Assessment and Illustrative Calculations for the Coal and Nuclear Fuel Cycles, Report for the



Regulatory Costs for Air Pollution, 2003

OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET, Draft 2003 Report to Congress on the Costs and Benefits of Federal

Regulations, p.10

John D. Graham, Administrator, Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs. Released Monday, Feb 3, 2003

Four EPA rules – two rules limiting particulate matter and NOx emissions from heavy duty highway engines, the Tier 2 rule limiting the emissions from light duty vehicles, and the Acid Rain rule -- account for a substantial fraction of the aggregate benefits reported in Table 2 [All Major Federal Rules, FY 2002]. These four EPA rules have estimated benefits of $96 to $113 billion per year and costs of $8 to $8.8 billion per year. The aggregate benefits and costs for the other 103 rules are $38 to $104 billion, and $30 to $35 billion, respectively.


OMB Draft Report, fine print in footnote 8, p. 10

8. These four EPA rules will reduce ambient levels of fine particulate matter by reducing direct PM emissions and/or the emissions of precursor pollutants like SO2 and NOx that contribute to the formation of fine PM. Many studies show an association between both short- and long-term exposure to fine PM and a variety of adverse health effects ranging from increases in the frequency of hospital admissions to premature mortality. There are, however, important uncertainties associated with these benefit estimates. For example key assumptions underlying the benefit estimates associated with premature mortality include the following:


OMB Draft Report, fine print in footnote 8

(1) The benefits analysis assumes there is a causal association between inhalation of fine particles and such health effects as premature mortality at exposure levels near those experienced by most Americans on a daily basis. While the biological mechanisms for this effect have not yet been definitively established, EPA has concluded that the weight of the available epidemiological and toxicological evidence supports an assumption of causality; (2) The benefits analysis assumes that all fine particles, regardless of their chemical composition, are equally toxic. This is an important assumption because fine particles from power plant emissions are chemically different from those emitted from both mobile sources and other industrial facilities. However, no clear scientific grounds exist for supporting differential effects estimates by particle type;


OMB Draft Report, fine print in footnote 8

(3) The benefits analysis assumes that the concentration-response function for fine particles is approximately linear within the range of ambient concentrations under consideration. Thus, the estimates include health benefits from reducing fine particles in areas that are in attainment with the fine particle standard and those that do not meet the standard; (4) The benefits analysis assumes that the forecasts for future emissions and associated air quality modeling are valid. The EPA’s analyses are based on peer-reviewed scientific literature and up-to-date assessment tools. However such models are themselves based on an evolving understanding and research continues to provide the data necessary for model evaluation; and (5) The valuation of estimated reduction in mortality risk is largely taken from studies of the tradeoff associated with the willingness to accept risk in labor markets. Alternative estimates may, however, be more relevant for rules addressing air pollution.

Further information can be found at: http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/fedreg/2003draft_cost-benefit_rpt.pdf


Regulatory Costs for Air Pollution, 1994-2003

OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET, Draft 2003 Report to Congress on the Costs and Benefits of

Federal Regulations

Released Monday, Feb 3, 2003

Benefits and costs for past ten years (millions of 2001 US$):

Benefits Costs

EPA Office of Air 106,010 to 163,893 18,362 to 20,978

All agencies 134,547 to 217,539 37,686 to 43,794


Regulatory Costs for Air Pollution, 2004-2100

Global warming is important. Its total costs could be about $5 trillion. Yet, our choices in dealing with global warming are also important, with few, carefully chosen actions shaving some hundred billion dollars off the global warming price but many actions which could cost the world trillions and even tens of trillion dollars over and above the global warming cost.

--Bjorn Lomborg, The Skeptical Environmentalist, p. 318


Risk Assessment: “Figure 1”

Source: National Research Council, Risk Assessment in the

Federal Government: Managing the Process (“Red Book”), 1983

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