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Copyright (C) Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc.

MITSUBISHIR ESEARCH INSTITUTE, INC.

GHG Reduction Project

through Countermeasures against

Large-scale Peat Fires

Shingo TAKAHASHISenior Research Professional

Social Innovation Group

Science & Safety Policy Research Division

February 21, 2013

Consultative Meeting on Reports of Joint Crediting Mechanism (JCM)

Feasibility Studies 2012 in Indonesia

Sumitomo Corporation



Copyright (C) Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc. 2

Contents

1. Overview 3

2. MRV methodologies 6

(1) Eligibility criteria

(2) Reference scenario

(3) Calculating Reference Emission Level (REL)

Peat fire/Peat decomposition/Forest fire & other land-use change

(4) Monitoring methodologies

(5) GHG emissions reduction

(6) Verification issues

3. Safeguard issues (Environmental integrity) 15

4. Scale of investment (Project cost estimation) 16

5. Future prospects & issues 17




1. Overview

Background

Since “Mega Rice Project” started in 1995, land development and drainagehave been accelerated in Central Kalimantan. It is recognized as an area to

have a huge CO2 emissions reduction potential.

Under “Joint Crediting Mechanism (JCM)”, formerly called “BOCM”,

REDD+ is considered as one of the major sectors. Therefore, MRV

methodologies need to be developed so that the amount of emissions

reduction can be identified.Last year, Sumitomo Corporation started a feasibility study (FS) project

commissioned by Ministry of Economic Trade and Industry (METI). MRI

helps Sumitomo Corporation in terms of developing MRV methodologies.

Objectives

Our final goal is to develop “simple” but “practical (reasonably accurate)”MRV methodologies. The followings are key:

To arrange default data sets (in the best use of existing statistical data)

To optimize monitoring system components (in a cost-effective way)

To identify clear & concrete procedures for MRV methodologies




1. Overview

Project Boundaries

To make the best use of existingresearch outcomes, we focus on the

northern part of Block B and C as

the project area (187,000 ha).

In the area, degraded swamp forest

has increased during 1997-2011.

Fig. Project boundary

Source: Sumitomo Corporation and Nippon Koei (2013)

Prepared by Synthesis Carbon Positive PT Mitra Green Karbon

Degraded

Swamp Forest

(1997-2011)

Swamp Forest

(2011)




1. Overview

Project Activities

Fire Management & PreventionImplement “Fire management institution” and “Fire information

system” etc.

Hydrological Rehabilitation & Management

Contribute to preventing both “peat fire” and “decomposition”

Increase the groundwater level by constructing dams along

the canal

Forest management and rehabilitation

Enhance the ecological restoration of degraded peat swamp

forests by preventing deforestation and forest degradation

Involvement of local communities

Establish Joint Study Team (JST) in order to discuss project

concept and other issues with local stakeholders including;

Central Kalimantan Government, UNPAR, etc.

Monitoring, Reporting and Verification (MRV)

Calculate the effect of the project activities in terms of GHG

emissions reduction achieved

Source: Sumitomo Corporation




2. MRV methodologies

(1) Eligibility Criteria

The methodologies are applicable to the project which meets the following items:Item 1: In the project area, the following conditons shall be met;

1) Majority of the project area is peatland;

2) In the project area, peat fire is one of the main GHG emissions source;

3) the countermeasures to be implemented in the project are recognized as effective ones by

local governments and stakeholders.

Item 2: Upon request, project proponents shall present evidence that they havethe rights to manage GHG emissions reduction credits deriving from the project.

Item 3: If part of the project area has been registered in other crediting systems

such as CDM, project proponents shall report the area and removed from the

project area to avoid double-counting credits.

Item 4: As a result of the project implementation, at least one of the followingitems shall be transferred and implemented in the project area;

Knowledge about forest policy and measures;

Technology transfer on forest management skills;

Monitoring technologies for forest resources (ex. Satellite imagery analysis) etc.





(2) Reference Scenario

Since no REDD+ project activities are implemented, the historical trend of peat fire and decomposition will continue and CO2 emissions from

peatland remain high in the project area.


“REDD+ Feasibility Study Project Final Report” March 2012

Swamp forest

Mangrove

Degraded vegetationTree crops

Shrubs

Grass, sedges

Dryland agriculturePaddy fields/mixed agriculture

Settlements

BarelandWater bodies

Palm plantation





(3) Calculating Reference Emission Level (REL)

Assumption:In the case of no REDD+ project activities to be implemented, the historical

emissions trend will continue.

El Nino year will happen every 5 years. (conservatively estimated)

= EM _

EM _

REL + + EM _

Soil organic carbon Above-ground biomass

EM _

EM _

EM _

= Area _ Depth _x Density _x

= Area _ EF _x

= Area _ EF _x Default values

EF _x





(3) Calculating REL: “Peat fire”

EM _

= Area_

Depth_

x Density _

x

Default values

“Burnt area”

of peat fire

Step1: Count No. of hotspots

in the project area [hotspots/y]

(MODIS hotspot data)

Step2: Estimate the average

fire burnt area / hotspot

[ha/hotspot]

× = Fire burnt

area

Step3: Calculate the fire

burnt area [ha/y]

“Depth” of burnt peat “Density”

of peat <Existing data>

- 1997-2001: 51cm (Page et al,2002)- 2002-2009: 33cm (Usup A,2005)

*Average value of 42 cm applied.

<Monitoring data>

- Applying the methodologies

“VCS VM004”

EF _x

Source: A. Anggraeni, and C. Lin, “Application of SAM and SVM Techniques to Burned Area Detection for Landsat TM Images in Forests of South Sumatra”

Source:

S. Shimada,

et. al. 2001





(3) Calculating REL: “Peat decomposition”

EM _

= Area_

EF _

x

Default values

“Drained/undrained” peatland area “Emission factor” of decomposition

of “drained/undrained” peatland

Step1: Identify the area of drained/undrained peatland

through model analysis [ha]

Step2: Applying emission factor based on the regression

formula [CO2ha]

“Drained” peat

swamp forests

“Undrained” peat

swamp forests

Source: S.Sundari, T.Hirano et al., “Effect of groundwater level on soil respiration in

tropical peat swamp forests” J. Agric. Meteorol. 68 (2): 121-134, 2012）Source: http://jica-jst.lapanrs.com/~wataru/GWT/





(3) Calculating REL: “Forest fire & other land-use change”

EM _

= Area_

EF _

x Default values

“Forest fire & other land-use change” area “Emission factor” of land-use, land-use

change and forestry

Step1: Develop area change matrix and identify area

changes by land-use category [ha]

Step2: Applying emission factor based

on the existing literature [tCO2/ha]

Source: Central Kalimantan REL team: ”Documen REL Provinsi Kalimantan

Tengah, Draft”

Area change matrix

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

1 Swamp forest

2 Mangrove

3 Degraded vegetation

4 Tree c rops

5 Shrubs

6 Grass, sedges

7 Dryland agriculture

8 Paddy fields/mixed agriculture

9 Settlements

10 Bareland

11 Water bodies

12 Palm plantation

Y e a r

1 9 9 7

Year 2011Landcover category

Deforestation

A f f o r

e s t a t i o n / R e f o r e s t a t i o n





(4) Monitoring methodologies

To calculate project emissions, the following items must be monitored.

In addition, by applying FES-C system, the calculated emissions reduction

shall be verified by the project proponents.

Components Parameters Measurement methods etc.

Peat fire MODIS hotspots data

(or MODIS Burned Area Products)

Download from website

Average peat fire burnt area per hotspot Existing data or Sampling survey

Average depth of burnt peat Existing data or Sampling survey

Density of peat Existing data or Sampling survey

Peat decomposition Ground water table mapping Download from website

Emission factor (peat decomposition) Existing data or Sampling survey

Forest fire & other

land-use change

Land-use area change matrix Existing data or Sampling survey

Emission factor (land-use category) Existing data or Sampling survey





cf. Data collection activities for monitoring

(In partner ship with Hokkaido Univ., JICA-JST program and CIMTROP)

Development of method of peat

fire emission estimation.

Emission intensity data correction

at drained peat land.

Source: Sumitomo Corporation (2012), “Feasibility Study on Peat Land Rehabilitation under Bilateral Offset Credits Mechanism between Indonesia and Japan”





(5) GHG emissions reduction (ex-ante)

Total reduction of 70.0 [MtCO2] for 22 years (3.2 [MtCO2/yr]).El Nino year: 9.5 [MtCO2/yr]

Non-El Nino year: 1.3 [MtCO2/yr]

PreliminaryThe values may

change in the final

report.





(6) Verification issues

Science-knowledge based methodologies All the default values employed in the methodologies are referred from

peer-reviewed research papers

All the accounting procedures are also developed on the basis of the latest

science-knowledge.

3. Environmental integrity (Safeguard issues)

The following items shall be well-considered;

Environmental aspects

Maintain forests remained and conserve peat land

Avoid double-counting of credits

Social aspects

Stakeholder meetings are regularly hold by the Joint Study Team (JST).

Livelihood support program is considered to implement.




4. Scale of investment

The project cost by component (Preliminary)

Investment plans are now under review, taking revenues from sales of JCM credits into consideration.

PreliminaryThe values may

change in the final

report.

(US$1,000) (IDR mil.) %

Pre-project arrangement 712 6,853 0.26%

Institutional Development & Preparatory Works 3,330 32,051 1.2%

Fire Prevention and Management 6,695 64,439 2.5%Hydrological Rehabilitation and Water management 24,737 238,094 9.1%

Forest Management and Rehabilitation 61,670 593,574 22.8%

Community Empowerment and Socio-economic Development 16,247 156,377 6.0%

MRV 11,624 111,881 4.3%

Project Management 31,828 306,345 11.8%

Sub-total 156,845 1,509,633 57.9%

Physical contingency（ 10％） 15,684 150,959 5.8%Price escalation 98,295 946,089 36.3%

Total 270,824 2,606,681 100%

ComponentsProject Cost

Exchange rate: USD = 9,625 IDRSource: Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. (2012), “Pre-feasibility Study on REDD+ Project in the Ex-Mega Rice

Project Area (Blocks B and C) in Central Kalimantan” prepared for Sumitomo Corporation




5. Future prospects & issues

Project design document needs to be

developed for conducting actual projectactivities.

MRV methodologies needs to be

improved in the followings;

Apply “land-cover change matrix” prepared by

CK gov’t

Conduct sampling surveys to provide defaultvalues (ex. Emission Factors, Depth of burned

peat etc.)

Linkage of input data and MRV

methodologies between sub-national

& project levels is key for reducing costs

and improving project feasibilities.

Satellite imagery data (Land-cover data etc.)

Setting default values for emission factors Fig. Monitoring System Components


“REDD+ Feasibility Study Project Final Report” March 2012




Thank you very much for your attention.

Any comments & questions are very welcome!

Shingo [email protected]

Senior Research ProfessionalSocial Innovation Group

Science & Safety Policy Research DivisionMitsubishi Research Institute, Inc.

Terima kasih !

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