050930 mk merrill lynch aus inv conf final€¦ · page 9 0 250 500 750 1,000 1,250 1,500 1,750...
TRANSCRIPT
-
BHP Billiton
Merrill Lynch Australian Investment Conference 30 September 2005Marius Kloppers – Chief Commercial Officer
-
Page 2
DisclaimerThe views expressed here contain information derived from publicly available sources that have not been independently verified. Norepresentation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information. Any forward looking information in this presentation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect. This presentation should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by BHP Billiton.
Nothing in this release should be construed as either an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell shares in any jurisdiction.
-
Page 3
Angl
o Am
erica
n
CVRD
Alco
a
Shen
hua
Newm
ont
Noril
sk
Xstra
ta
Barri
ck
Alca
n
Phelp
s Dod
ge
Anglo
Plat
Angl
ogol
d
Peab
ody E
nerg
y
Falco
nbrid
ge
Came
co
Inco
Teck
Com
inco
SPCC
BHPB
Rio
Tinto
05
101520253035404550556065707580859095
100
Mark
et C
ap. o
n 19
/08/0
5 (US
$Bn)
The largest company in a consolidating sector
Market value of minerals industry US$572bnValue of Top Five US$241bnValue of BHP Billiton US$ 92bn
Source: Datastream
-
Page 4
The world’s largest diversified resources company
Energy CoalDiamonds & Spec Prod
Aluminium
Carbon Steel Materials
Base Metals
Petroleum
Stainless Steel Materials
-
Page 5
Strategic focus
People
Low Cost, High Quality Assets
Cost Savings and Efficiencies
Growth Pipeline
Bolt-onAcquisitions
M&A
-
Page 6
Highlights – year ended June 2005
Note – the financial results of BHP Billiton are prepared in accordance with UK generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP).
• Record full year earnings− EBITDA up 53% to US$11.4 billion− EBIT up 70% to US$9.3 billion− Attributable profit of US$6.5 billion and earnings per share of
106.4 US cents, up 86% and 89%, respectively• EBIT up across all CSGs with Group EBIT margin of 37.1%• Available cashflow up 70% to US$8.7 billion• Eight major projects commissioned since 30 June 2004• Successful US$7.2 billion acquisition of WMC Resources• Successful completion of US$2 billion capital management programme• Final dividend increased to 14.5 US cents per share, consistent with
outlook and higher earnings and cashflow
-
Page 7
Outstanding assetsIncreasing margins and return on capital
EBIT margins exclude exceptional i tems and third party products.
25.4%
20.5%
12.9%10.7%
37.1%
29.8%
24.3%20.3%
0%5%
10%15%
20%25%30%35%40%
2002 2003 2004 2005
Return on Capital EBIT Margin
-
Page 8
Outlook - 2005
EuropeSubdued domestic demand, high unemployment and strong EuroLimited improvement expected in next 12 months
Higher raw material and energy prices not materially impacting growthHigher raw material and energy prices not materially impacting growth
ChinaGDP growth rate remains s trong and sustainableFixed asset investment focussed on infrastructurede-bottleneckingRMB revaluation neutral to positiveQuality and sustainability of growth is key
JapanConfidence increasing due to domestic demandRising business confidence, capital expenditure and employment
USAImprovements in consumer spending, industrial production and employmentTightening in monetary policyHigh oil prices not impacting growth
CY01 CY02 CY03 CY04 H105 CY01 CY02 CY03 CY04 H105
CY01 CY02 CY03 CY04 H105
CY01 CY02 CY03 CY04 H105
Source: BHP Billiton, EIU
-
Page 9
0250
500
750
1,0001,250
1,500
1,750
2,0002,250
2,500
FY02 H1 03 H2 03 H1 04 H2 04 H1 05 H2 05Petroleum Aluminium Base Metals CSM Energy Coal SSM
China• Sales into China increasing but diversification remains• Currently 12.6% of total company revenues, up from 9.8% in FY04
US$M
431
785
1,0751,357
371
1,588
Europe
JapanOther Asia
Nth America
China
Australia
ROW2,407
-
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 0 4 05 Est.0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Chinese refin ed copperconsumption
% sha re of world refined copperconsumption (ri ght hand scale)
‘000 tonnes
Data: CRU, BH, BHP Billiton
Chinese copper, nickel, iron ore and steel demand
‘000 tonnes
‘000 tonnes
Data: CRU
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 H1 Est0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Chinese primary nickelconsumpti on
% share of world pri mary nickelconsumpti on (ri ght hand scal e)
0
50
100
150
200
250
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 YTD0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Chi nese iron ore imports
% share of global seaborne ironore (right hand scale)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 YTD0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Chinese crude steelconsumption
% share of global crude steelconsumption (right hand scale)
Data: IISI, China Customs, CRU, Tex, Clarksons & BHP Bill iton (NB: 05 YTD is to end April) Data: IISI, China Customs, CRU, Tex, Clarksons & BHP Bill iton (NB: 05 YTD is to end April)
Page 10
‘000 tonnes
-
Page 11
Exchange stocks and copper, nickel, aluminium and petroleum prices
LME copper p rice – US$/tonne
Data: LME, Comex, SHFE (from 1997)
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
2,400
2,800
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05YTD
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500Aluminium price – US$/tonne LME Aluminium stocks – ‘000 tonnes
Data: LME, IAI
LME stocks
LME cash price
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05YTD
0
200
400
600
800
1, 000
1, 200
1, 400Copper stocks – ‘000 tonnes
LME cash price
LME
Comex
SHFE
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 040%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%OECD spare capacity as % of demandWTI Price US$/ bbl
Data: EIA
WTI
Nickel price – US$/tonne
Data: CRU
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 Dec0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000Nickel stocks – tonnes
LME cash price
LME stocks
OECD spare capacity
-
Page 12
0.50
0.70
0.90
1.10
1.30
1.50
1.70
1801
1808
1815
1822
1829
1836
1843
1850
1857
1864
1871
1878
1885
1892
1899
1906
1913
1920
1927
1934
1941
1948
1955
1962
1969
1976
1983
1990
1997
2004
Commodities price cycle – 200 year view
Source: “US All Commodities Producer Price Index and US Consumer Price Inflation,US Bureau of the Census, His torical S tatis tics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970”
WW-2 / Korea
War of 1812
U.SCivil War
U.S. Industrial revolution & overheating
WW-1
Cold War
Great Depression
US Commodity Price Index adjusted for CPI
Gold Rush/
Railroads
Illiquidity/ Contraction of
money and credit
Panic of 1893/ U.S. transition to
gold standardRecession/
End of Bretton Woods Turn of
cycle?
-
Page 13
Deep inventory of growth projectsB R O W N F I E L D
G R E E N F I E L D
SpenceSpence
Atlantis SouthAtlantis South
As at 24 August 2005Size of bubble indicates proposed capital expenditure;bold outer border signifies sanctioned project
$US 200M$US 200M
Paranam
BlackwaterCPP
Worsley
RavensthorpeRavensthorpe
BMAPhase 1
Esc’daNorte
Esc’daNorte
BMA Phase 2
WA Iron OreRGP 2
WA Iron OreRGP 2
SamarcoSamarco
NeptuneNeptune
NWS T5NWS T5
StybarrowStybarrow
NWS Angel
Koala UG
ZamzamaPhase 2
WA Iron OreRGP 4+
WA Iron OreRGP 4+
NickelPetroleum
Diamonds
Alumina
Iron OreBase Metals
Met. Coal
ShenziShenzi
AtlantisNorth
YabuluYabulu
20092007 2008CY2006 2010
Esc’daSulphideEsc’da
Sulphide
WA Iron OreRGP 3
WA Iron OreRGP 3
MaruwaiMaruwai
AlumarAlumar
Esc’daCPR
-
Page 14
• Strong production performance leading to record financial results• Outlook remains positive
− Strong demand− Low inventories− Supply lagging demand
• Portfolio diversification drives cash flow stability• Track record of delivering growth in line with market demand• Management will continue to exercise value accretive expansion
options to capture our share of demand growth
Summary and conclusions
Increasing Shareholder ValueIncreasing Shareholder Value
-
Page 15