06-06-17: a696-04: [5] h.1-7: heads jcs-cia-ftw-dp attachments

41
The Background is Oil by Dale Alien Pfeiffer [For many it is difficult to accept the truth about the events of September 11th without seeing the context of an unavoidable global crisis that cannot be postponed or evaded. The myth of perpetual American prosperity is destroyed by this layman-friendly analysis of the global oil picture and the hard choices facing the planet. Enron employees are only adding to a list of innocent American victims that is going to increase rapidly. Many thanks to Dale Alien Pfeiffer for this cogent and ominous analysis. - MCR] ·:[]DO :; 5;00 0: ~ ·)O(~j t i:-:~~'J ~ ~Oi'X1 ~ ,~(I<' 113/ Wnr!rt l'rim .. 'fV t:11':f'IY ~"1'I11y hy ,: '''~ 1911·20~O Cal 11,<:/<,-., tlJ<I'.) FTW, December 18,2001 - The past year has seen events unprecedented in the history of this country, from the installment of George W. Bush as president due to an extremely controversial 5 to 4 decision of the Supreme Court to the horrific terrorist attacks of 9-11. These events seem unreal and beyond comprehension. Many people have been left wondering why the presidential coup and why the terrorist attacks. Many people have assumed that the last presidential election simply resulted in a political squabble due to the close vote. A few have opined that this squabble resulted in a power grab by one segment of the elite in this country. As for the events of 9-11, the established line is that this was due to evil people who hate freedom and democracy. However, many people have sought to explain that these terrorists were bred by decades of imperialist intervention undertaken by this country in order to keep secure the privileged position of US corporations and the US public in general. There are a small few who have wondered whether the events of 9-11 were the work of Islamic terrorists at all, just as there are a few who believe that the Bush regime staged a coup in every sense of the word. The wisest and best informed say all of this is about oil. To understand the events of the past year, it is first necessary to set the scene. And the scene in which all of these events have played out is the approaching end of the oil age. This background has not been talked about in the mass media, or even in the alternative media. However, this knowledge is essential in order to understand not only what has transpired in the past year, but also the events to come. And we need this knowledge in order to consider what actions we should take to assure a positive future for all. Oil Dependency The civilization we live in today is based entirely on hydrocarbons (by which term I mean both oil and natural gas). The energy which runs our technology is derived from hydrocarbons. The energy which does our work is derived from hydrocarbons. The energy which powers our homes, our transportation and which generates our electricity is all largely derived from hydrocarbons. All of the plastics which surround us with consumer goods are derived from hydrocarbons. Our produce is fed with hydrocarbon-based fertilizers and sprayed with hydrocarbon-based pesticides. Every person in the US has the energy equivalent of a dozen slaves working for him or her. Why this dependency on oil? Simply put, there is no other energy source which holds as much energy per unit. The only exception to this is uranium, which is dangerous, difficult to work with, and far too rare an element to ever provide for more than a small percentage of our energy needs.j Even the highest grade of coal only holds about 50% as much energy as an equivalent quantity of hydrocarbons.l Renewable energy resources can provide nowhere near enough energy to meet our current needs.~ Fusion remains, as ever, just beyond our grasp. The highly touted

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The Background is Oilby

Dale Alien Pfeiffer

[For many it is difficult to accept the truthabout the events of September 11th

without seeing the context of an

unavoidable global crisis that cannot be

postponed or evaded. The myth of

perpetual American prosperity is

destroyed by this layman-friendly

analysis of the global oil picture and the

hard choices facing the planet. Enron

employees are only adding to a list of

innocent American victims that is going

to increase rapidly. Many thanks to Dale

Alien Pfeiffer for this cogent and ominous

analysis. - MCR]

·:[]DO

:; 5;000:

~ ·)O(~j

t i:-:~~'J

~ ~Oi'X1

~ ,~(I<'

113/

Wnr!rt l'rim ..'fV t:11':f'IY ~"1'I11y hy ,: '''~ 1911·20~O

Cal

11,<:/<,-.,

tlJ<I'.)

FTW, December 18,2001 - The past year has seen

events unprecedented in the history of this country,

from the installment of George W. Bush as president

due to an extremely controversial 5 to 4 decision of the

Supreme Court to the horrific terrorist attacks of 9-11.

These events seem unreal and beyond

comprehension. Many people have been left

wondering why the presidential coup and why theterrorist attacks.

Many people have assumed that the last presidential

election simply resulted in a political squabble due to

the close vote. A few have opined that this squabble

resulted in a power grab by one segment of the elite inthis country. As for the events of 9-11, the established

line is that this was due to evil people who hate

freedom and democracy. However, many people have

sought to explain that these terrorists were bred by

decades of imperialist intervention undertaken by this

country in order to keep secure the privileged position

of US corporations and the US public in general. Thereare a small few who have wondered whether the

events of 9-11 were the work of Islamic terrorists at all,

just as there are a few who believe that the Bush

regime staged a coup in every sense of the word. The

wisest and best informed say all of this is about oil.

To understand the events of the past year, it is first

necessary to set the scene. And the scene in which all

of these events have played out is the approaching end

of the oil age. This background has not been talked

about in the mass media, or even in the alternative

media. However, this knowledge is essential in order to

understand not only what has transpired in the past

year, but also the events to come. And we need this

knowledge in order to consider what actions we should

take to assure a positive future for all.

Oil Dependency

The civilization we live in today is based entirely on

hydrocarbons (by which term I mean both oil and

natural gas). The energy which runs our technology is

derived from hydrocarbons. The energy which does

our work is derived from hydrocarbons. The energy

which powers our homes, our transportation and which

generates our electricity is all largely derived from

hydrocarbons. All of the plastics which surround us with

consumer goods are derived from hydrocarbons. Our

produce is fed with hydrocarbon-based fertilizers and

sprayed with hydrocarbon-based pesticides. Every

person in the US has the energy equivalent of a dozen

slaves working for him or her.

Why this dependency on oil? Simply put, there is no

other energy source which holds as much energy perunit. The only exception to this is uranium, which is

dangerous, difficult to work with, and far too rare an

element to ever provide for more than a small

percentage of our energy needs.j Even the highest

grade of coal only holds about 50% as much energy as

an equivalent quantity of hydrocarbons.l Renewable

energy resources can provide nowhere near enough

energy to meet our current needs.~ Fusion remains, as

ever, just beyond our grasp. The highly touted

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0L.-o Years 40

After Colin J. Cat11Jbell& Jean H.laherrere,THE END OF CHEAP Oil, Sd Am, March 1998

hydrogen fuel cells are not an energy source but a form

of energy storage; the energy contained in the fuel cell

must be generated from another source.-1

In short, there is no other source which can provide for

the energy needs of our present civilization.

Nonrenewable Resources

Hydrocarbons are considered a nonrenewable

resource. Many millions of years ago, atmospheric

carbon was absorbed by ocean waters and ultimately

processed into living matter. Millions of years ago the

oceans abounded in microorganisms. Life forms similar

to plankton were far more abundant than they are even

at the present time. As these organisms died their

bodies settled on the ocean floor, forming an organic

ooze. It is interesting to note that the planet was

incapable of supporting terrestrial life until much ofthecarbon had been leeched from the atmosphere.

Atmospheric carbon is a poison which had to be locked

into sediment by ocean life before land-dwelling lifeforms could evolve.

Once this organic ooze was deposited, it had to be

buried in sediment and subjected to just the rightcombination of conditions in order to transform it into

energy rich hydrocarbons. The combination of

pressure, heat and time is very precise. Too much

pressure will transform the carbon to graphite. Toomuch heat will overcook it.

Finally, once the ooze has been transformed into

hydrocarbons, they will migrate through the Earth's

crust until captured by the "trap." A trap is a non­

permeable geological formation which holds the

hydrocarbons and prevents them from escaping.

Without a trap, the hydrocarbons will migrate to the

Earth's surface and dissipate into the atmosphere.

All of the conditions for hydrocarbon generation have

only been met once in the history of the Earth. It is

arguable that the process of transforming atmospheric

carbon into hydrocarbon deposits itself altered

atmospheric, oceanic and earth chemistry, as well as

the biosphere, in such a way that the process will never

be repeated, it would take millions of years for

hydrocarbon deposits to be replenished.

And so hydrocarbons are a nonrenewable resource

which we are using up at an alarming rate.

{73d-

Production & Demand

The production of oil from any given field follows a bell

curve. After discovery of the field, production increases

as more and more wells are opened. A team of

exploration geologists and engineers will quickly map

out the field and develop a pattem of well placement so

as to maximize production. Each well has a cone of

production which, when well placed, will cover the

entire field. If placed too closely, the cones of

production will overlap and the overlapping wells will

each wind up producing less. So, to increase

production by drilling more wells only works until the

field is covered, beyond which point adding more wells

only leads to diminishing retums.

Because of this, there is a point where the production

of any particular field is maximized. This is the peak of

the production curve. The peak can be narrow or

broad, short or long in duration, but production will

never be increased beyond this point.

In the earth, oil moves at a very slow rate. The classic

gusher effect is due to the fact that oil at depth is held

under pressure. When a hole is drilled, the oil in the

area immediately around the hole is ejected by this

pressure. Once this oil has been pumped, the well

must draw oil from farther away. Under its own

impetus, oil travels at a very slow rate, the same rate

as damp spreading through a stone foundation. Once a

well has pumped all of the oil in its immediate vicinity,

the rate of production must drop. We have techniques

for boosting the draw of a well, such as pumping inwater under pressure at other sites to drive oil to the

well. But production will inevitably decrease.

This is the downward side of the production curve. On

this downward slope more and more energy is required

to pump oil from a field, until a point is reached where it

takes as much or more energy to pump the oil than can

be extracted from the oil. At this point the wells are

closed and the field ceases production, forever.

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This is the trend for every oil field ever discovered:

increasing production, peak production, and declining

production. Even fields as immense as those in Saudi

Arabia follow this pattem.

In the 1950s and 1960s, Dr. King Hubbert managed to

combine production from several different wells to

develop production profiles for regions, nations, and

even the entire planet. These regional oil production

plots also have the form of a bell curve, known now as

the Hubbert curve. Such curves can be used to predict

peak production and decline, both nationally and

globally. Using this technique, Dr. Hubbert was able to

surmise that US oil production would peak in the early1970s and then fall into decline. Dr. Hubbert was

ridiculed by other scientists who relied on differing,

erroneous methodologies ..1

/733

More could be said about natural gas, which is also

expected to decline in production in the next decade.§. ,

~ Likewise, the coal resources within the US will be

exhausted in another fifty years at most. 10 And coalalone will never meet our current, much less projected,

energy demand. Nor can salvation be expected from

the Athabaskan (Alaskan) oil sands, which require a

major energy investment to harvest and process.ll

Number of Years to Peak for Various Nations, 1998

US oil production did peak in the early 1970s. To meet

its rising energy needs after this point the US became

increasingly dependent on foreign oil. This paved the

way for the Arab oil embargo. By the end of the

decade, US oil production had begun to decrease

irreversibly. Whatever anyone tries to say to the

contrary, our dependence on foreign oil is permanent

and increasing all the time. Dr. Hubbert was vindicated,

and his is now the standard methodology for projectingoil production.

This is the composite global picture. To better

understand what is happening, we have to comparevarious oil producing regions. In doing this we see that,

except for the Middle East and the Caspian Sea Basin,

the rest of the world has already peaked, and most oil

producing regions are now in decline. The Middle East

and Caspian Sea regions are not expected to peak for

at least several years to come. With the passage oftime, all countries will vie with each other for the oil of

these regions, vying for the survival of their civilization.

And whoever controls the oil production of the Middle

East and Caspian Sea regions will control the world.]

Global production curves have also been in existencesince the 1960s.

They have beenrefined as data on

oil resources is

revised; yet the

timing and length of

--- -- --- _""--c:o.~""" •. ;:::;: the peak have

varied little through the years, Global oil production

peaked sometime in this past year and will begin to

decline within another five years. Production will peak

at a maximum of 90 million barrels per day; however,

demand stands at 75 million barrels per day currently

and will rise by 2.5 % per year to 100 million barrels perday by 2010.~

/;'

Against This Backdrop

Now that we have this background in place, let's reflect

on the events of the past year.

The 2000 presidential election has been referred to as

a coup, and there is good reason for this. Never mind

the widespread corruption and voter fraud. Never mind

the disenfranchisement of black voters and the outright

destruction of untallied ballots in minority voting

precincts. Never mind the manipulations of JamesBaker, Govemor Jeb Bush and various other Florida

officials. The Supreme Court decision was itself

unheard of, and probably unconstitutional. The self­

described job of the Supreme Court is to decide

questions of constitutional law and set precedents. Yet

in this one case and no other in the history of the US

the Supreme Court stated that itwas rendering a

special decision which cannot be used as a precedent

in any other case. 12

So we have a president put into office by a 5 to 4 vote

of the Supreme Court, in direct opposition to the

popular vote. What about the background of thispres'ident and his cabinet? The Bush cabinet is a virtual

who's who of oil, defense and pharmaceutical bigwigs.

13 The Bush family is itself closely tied financially to thebin Ladens.14 , 15 Both families are involved in the

Carlyle Group.j§ Bush Sr. sits on the board of Carlyle,

a 12 billion Equity company with oil holdings and

defense contracts.j1 Dick Cheney was the former

CEO of Halliburton Oil. Colin Powell is a majorstockholder in several defense contractors. National

Security Advisor Condoleeza Rice sat on the board of

Chevron. Andrew Card, the Chief of Staff is from

General Motors. Donald Rumsfeld, Secretary ofDefense, was CEO of Searle Pharmaceuticals. Dick

Armitage, the Deputy Secretary of Defense, has ties to

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the Russian mafia and is a board member of Cartyle.

Robert Jordan, the Saudi ambassador, was a member

of Baker Botts, a legal firm specializing in oil and

defense (the Baker in Baker Botts is James Baker).

Tony Principi, Secretary of Foreign Affairs, comes fromLockheed Martin. Gordan England, Secretary of the

Navy, is tied to General Dynamics. James Roche,

Secretary of the Air Force, is from Northrop Grumman.Gen. Thomas White, retired, Secretary of the Army, is

from Enron Energy. Donald Evans, the Commerce

Secretary, owns Colorado Oil Company. National

Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice sat on the board ofExxon. And Mr. Cartucci, the Chief of Cartyle, sits on

the Middle East Policy Council. 18

One of the first acts of the Bush administration was to

declare an energy crisis and delineate a controversial

set of measures for solving this problem. On the

surface, the Bush energy package called for increased

domestic production. This is the favored solution ofcertain mainstream, free-market economists, who

believe that increased production is the answer to

current energy woes while research and development

of new technology will take care of the future. Mostmainstream economists refuse to realize that

hydrocarbons are the underpinning of our technological

civilization, instead of just another commodity. And, of

course, increasing production has great appeal to

businesspeople whose prime concem is maximizing

short-term profit.

Under the surface, however, the Bush energy package

is a give away for the oil industry, and a strengthening

of US commitment to support corporate oil interests.

The energy package sought to give away drilling rightsin the Alaskan National Wildlife Arctic Reserve

(ANWAR) and other remaining wildemess areas, open

up our continental shelves to full exploitation, role back

environmental and health regulations, and subsidize

the oil industry with major tax breaks. One controversial

measure which received very little attention was an

item allowing energy corporations to extract resources

from public land without paying for the right to do so.

The Bush energy plan was a giveaway for energy

corporations. It met with stiff opposition in congress

and certain prized measures such as drilling in

ANWAR were defeated. Related to the energy

package was President Bush's withdrawal from the

Kyoto Treaty on global warming, which action wasreviled around the wortd.

In his first months in office, Bush managed to alienate

almost every country on the planet in one arrogantmove after another. When asked what he would do

should Canada seek to limit natural gas flow to the

United States, Bush said he would do whatever was

necessary to protect our right to Canada's natural gas.

Likewise, at home, he was highly reviled by many US

citizens. There was even some talk of impeachment.

All of this changed after 9-11, and it is to be wonderedhow the Bush administration would have survived

without the terrorist attacks.

911

It is now earty summer of 2001, and the Bushadministration informs Pakistan and India that it will

launch a military mission against Afghanistan beforethe end of October.19 , 20 This is the same

Afghanistan to which the US gave 43 million dollars just

a couple months before to aid them in destroying their

poppy crops; that on top of 132 million given to the

Taliban in the previous year·ll, 22 At the time

Secretary of State Colin Powell informs Pakistan andIndia of US intentions there is no animosity between

the US govemment and the Taliban, despite the fact

that the Taliban is openly harboring wanted terroristOsama bin Laden.

In July, while seeking treatment for a kidney infection at

an American hospital in Dubai, Osama bin Laden is

visited by a CIA operative who later brags about the

meeting.23 Shortly after this meeting came to light in

late October, the CIA issued a statement insisting thatit has never had contact with Osama bin Laden. Yet it

is very well known that the CIA originally trained and

supported bin Laden during the Taliban's fight againstSoviet invasion. 24 , 25 , 26

After 9-11 there has been a great deal of investigation

to see who profited from the attack on the Wortd Trade

Center. Investigators have tumed up a list of financial

institutions in the US which profited from short-selling

and put options on the WTC, airtine companies and the

companies housed in the WTC. Short selling and put

options indicate prior knowledge that an asset is about

to lose its value. The list of brokers handling the insider

trading connected to 911 includes A.B. Brown, an

investment bank. "Buzzy" Krongard, the current

Executive Director of the Central Intelligence Agency isthe former Chairman of the investment bank A.B.

Brown.27 , 28

In the months prior to the terrorist attacks, there were

many warning passed around various levels of the

government and elsewhere. David Schippers the

Republican lawyer who pressed impeachment against

President Clinton, clairns he spent rnonths before 9/11

trying to get information to Attorney General Ashcroft

from FBI agents who claim they were told not to

investigate leads that suggested a terrorist attack on

Manhattan was imminent. 29 The New York DailyNews stated that some Middle-Easterners in New York

were forewarned of the attacks.30 Bin Laden had

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wamed a few months previously that he and his

followers would undertake an unprecedented attack on

US interests.l1 Finally, on Friday, Sept 7, the State

Dept issued a worldwide terrorist alert to Americansabroad.32 It is hard to believe that no one in the US

intelligence community had knowledge of the pendingattacks.

Between 7:45 and 8:10 EST, the moming of

September 11th, four US passenger jets were hijackedsimultaneously. This was an event unprecedented in

US history and should have set off all sorts of alarms

by itself. Nothing was done. The FM had all four

planes on radar the whole time. 35 minutes later,

American Airlines flight 11 crashed into the WorldTrade Center. The air force was not scrambled.

President Bush was not even informed. After another

18 minutes, United Airlines flight 175 struck the second

tower of the WTC. Bush is briefly informed of these

events as he attends a 2nd grade class in Florida.

Instead of taking emergency actions, Bush continueswith his lessons. Another excruciating 37 minutes pass

during which nothing is done. Radar tracks American

Airlines flight 77 as it flies by Washington D.C., makes

a tight spiraling descent, descending 7,000 feet in 2.5

minutes, and levels off to fly straight into the Pentagon

at 640 knots, clipping power lines along the way.

Some time later, United Airlines flight 93 crashes in

Pennsylvania. Witnesses report debris falling from the

plane many miles before it hit ground. There has been

a lot of speculation about the intended target of this 4th

plane. Some say the target was Camp David, some the

White House. It has also been speculated that this craft

sought a midair coJlision with Air Force One. We will

probably never know its intended target. However, it isinteresting to consider if the target of flight 93 had

actually been the Capitol Building. Had this jet struck

congress, President Bush might have temporarily

assumed the powers of congress.

Subsequent Events

After 9-11, President Bush's approval rating rose to

80%. A wave of patriotic hysteria has washed over the

entire country, giving Bush the mandate he so

desperately desired. Instead of seeking out the

perpetrators and bringing them to justice through legalchannels, Bush declared war on all terrorists and on

any country which harbors or supports terrorists. This is

to be a very long and open-ended war, without specific

goals against which its success and eventual resolution

can be measured. Operation "Infinite Justice" as it was

originally called. The US public must preparethemselves to suffer and sacrifice while the war itself

will be fought largely in secret.

President Bush quickly established a new cabinet level

Office of Homeland Security, to be headed by former

Pennsylvania Govemor Tom Ridge. This office is tostand over and coordinate among all existing domestic

police on national, state and local levels. And it is to be

given its own special security forces with practically

unlimited powers. Among their duties will be monitoring

interstate travel at checkpoints and policing protests.

Security forces will reserve the right to kill anyone whoresists them. Bush and Ridge are pushing for national

ID cards, and it is rumored that checkpoints will be

equipped with face recognition technology. 33

In congress, unpopular legislation which had previously

limped along was rammed through with patriotic fervor.

Lobbyists lined up in a feeding frenzy. Where only a

month before budget surpluses had dried up and

congress people were arguing for defense cuts, now

practically the entire budget was given over to defense

spending. And finally, congress passed a new anti­

terrorism act which granted police and the military vast

new powers, ended habeas corpus and the posse

comitatus act, and severely hamstrung the Bill of

Rights. 34 , 35

All the while, the public is being kept in a state of alert

with threats of anthrax exposure and other vagueterrorist alarms. The anthrax attacks are themselves

extremely peculiar. The Bush administration wants to

point the blame at Iraq, while the FBI and other

investigators believe them to be the work of

homegrown, probably rightwing, terrorists. Yet all the

leads seem to evaporate into thin air. The main targets,media and Democratic Senator Tom Daschle, make

little sense if the perpetrators are Islamic extremists.Those who would benefit the most from these attacks

are President Bush and his administration, as the

attacks only serve to scare the media and his political

opposition further into his protective arms. Finally there

is the ineffective nature of the attacks; for the most part,

the exposures are easily treated with antibiotics. Itwould be easier and more effective to use letter

bombs. That is, unless your goal was to instill fear in

the media, the political opposition and the general

public without massive casualties.

Lastiy, the assault on Afghanistan began just as

planned. And the US now has the excuse to attack anyother nation it pleases. All that is required is to firstlabel them as terrorists.

Oil, Again

Just what was the planned purpose of the assault on

Afghanistan? You could say it was a pipe dream. US

oil interests have their eye on large untapped

hydrocarbon resources in the Caspian Sea region. Just

Jigs-

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as the Bosnian conflict was part of an effort to secure

the Balkan states for an oil and gas pipeline to the

European energy market, so the US is seeking secure

passage for a pipeline through Afghanistan to feed theAsian energy markets and

__~' the US itself.36 , 37\2"1

",;,:;:"-"r _ : Beyond this, the War on. ,r ""...::"':,.- ",r'. Terrorism, gives the US a

/", i perfect excuse to seize::;.=,' I control of major oil deposits

in other countries such as

Iran and Colombia. Likewise, it legitimates a police

state within the US so that the elite can prepare for the

day when the common people of this country are

impoverished and starving due to the collapse of oil­based civilization. The Elite will maintain their own

comfort and their average of twelve energy slaves per

person.

Here then, is the scenario. Wary of the peak and

approaching decline of hydrocarbon production, the oiland defense elite in this country back a political coup to

put their people in the White House. However, this oil

administration can do very little toward achieving their

ends because of unpopularity at home and abroad. In

growing desperation, this regime provokes and

permits, if not outright planning the enterprise on its

own, a massive terrorist attack against the US

homeland, striking at the very symbols of globalization

and US imperialist military might. Perhaps failing in an

attempt to attack congress which would then give the

president the opportunity to "temporarily" suspend the

constitution and assume sole power. This terrorist act

negates all opposition to the regime and gives them the

authority to do whatever they wish intemationally and

domestically to protect the interests and the positionsofthe oil elite.

This scenario may seem farfetched but no other theory

can explain as adequately all the events of the past

year, given the facts that are known and the

background of the approaching end of the oil age.

Even if you don't believe the events of the past year

were intentional, that does not change the picture ofthe future before us. We stand at the dusk of oil-based

civilization, and the US is preparing for the approaching

night by extending its military might throughout the

world and instituting a police state at home.

Ending on a Positive Note

Global oil is peaking; in five years we will no longer be

able to produce enough oil to meet the needs of our oil

civilization. The oil elite wants to grab the remainingsupplies and dictate their use. Likewise, the people of

this country, who will soon be faced by starvation and

extreme impoverishment, can be held in check throughthe establishment of a police state.

All the while, people are being diverted from seeing

that we have just enough energy resources left that wecould build a true ectopian democracy where all of us

could lead freer, healthier, more fulfilling lives. We need

bottom up democracy. We need small-scale

economies, and small-scale technologies powered by

renewable energy. We need smaller communities,structured to be self-sufficient, all tied together by high

speed monorails. We need gardens and parks in ourcities instead of cars. We need social halls, not

shopping malls. And we have enough energy

remaining to do this, if we act now.

The oil elites, however, want to use our remaining

energy resources to establish a security state where

they can enjoy the remaining riches while the rest of ussuffer, starve and slave for them.

Yet they are not the ones pulling the triggers and

enforcing the rules. We are. And that's what they fear

most. So tell me, what do you think we should let

happen now?

ENDNOTES:

1 ENERGY FOR TOMORROW'S WORLD; World Energy

Council, p. 90, 1993

2 Energy Synopsis, Jay Hanson, Mar, 8, 2001­

http://www.dieoff.orq

3 Environmental Accounting: Energy and Environmental

Decision Making, Howard 1. Odium, WHey, 1996. From page314, we find that in 1993 total USA fuel use was 4.78 x

10e24 sej (increasing about 2% per year ever since). From

page 187 we find that total net solar radiation absorption for

Alaska and the lower 48 was 4.48 x 10e22 sej. In other

words, the USA is presently using fossil fuels more than 100

times greater than the total absorption of solar radiationacross the entire USA!

4 ENERGETIC LIMITS TO GROWTH, Jay Hanson; Energy

Magazine, Spring, 1999; http://dieoff.com/paqe175.htm

5 http://www.hubbertpeak.com/hubbertl

6 Energy Synopsis, Jay Hanson, Mar, 8, 2001 ­

http://www.dieoff.orq

7 The Hubbert Peak for World Oil,

http://www.hubbertpeak.com/summary.hlm

8 Energy Synopsis, Jay Hanson, Mar, 8, 2001 ­

http://www.dieoff.orq

9 http://dieoff.com/naqas.hlm

10 BEYOND OIL, by John Gever et al., pp. 65-68, Univ. Pr.

Colorado, 1991.

11 GeoDestinies, by Waiter Youngquist; National Book

Company, 1997.

See http://dieoff.com/paqe132.htm

12 The Betrayal of America: How the Supreme Court

Undermined the Constitution and Chose Our President, by

Vincent Bugliosi, Thunder's Mouth Press/Nation Books,

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2001.

13 The Oil behind Bush and Son's Campaigns by Ranjit

Devraj, Inter Press Services, 5 October 2001; Posted at

globalresearch.ca 15 October 2001.

http://www.qlobalresearch.calarticles/DEV110Ahtmi

14 George W. Bush's Dubious Friends, IntelligenceNewsletter, 2 March 2000; Posted at globalresearch.ca 1

October 2001. http://qlobalresearch.calarticles/INL110A.html

15 BUSH LADEN by Jared Israel, Emperor's Clothes; 8October 2001.

http://emperors-clothes.com/news/bushladen.htm16 Judicial Watch: Bush/bin Laden Connection "has now

tumed into a scandal!", Jared Israel, Emperor's Clothes;

posted 6 October 2001. http://emperors­

clothes.com/newsflw. htm

17 The Carlyle Group, Alfred Mendes, Spectrezine.

http://www.spectrezine.orq/qlobal/carlvle.htm

18 You've got to be Up Front, Mike McCormick, transcription

of an interview with Stan Goff; October 24, 2001.

http://narconews.com/qoffrnccormick1.html&

http://www.radi04all.netlproqinfo.php?id=3795

19 US Planned Attack on Afghanistan, George Amey, BBC;

18 September, 2001.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/enqlish/world/south asialnewsid 1550000/1550366.stm

20 India in Anti-Taliban Military Plan, Indiareacts.com; 26June, 2001.

http://www.indiareacts.com/archivefeatures/nat2.asp?recno=

10&ctq=

21 Bush sends Money to Taliban while Planning War,

TASHKENT, Aug 08, 2001 (Itar-Tass via COMTEX).

22 The Washington Post, 25 May 2001.23 CIA AGENT ALLEGEDLY MET BIN LADEN IN JULY,

From 'Le Figaro' [1 November 2001], Translated by Tiphaine

Dickson, By Alexandra Richard; Page 2, October 31st, 2001.

http://emperors-clothes.com/misc/lefiqaro.htm

24 Washington: Parent of the Taliban and Colombian Death

Squads, by Jared Israel, Emperor's Clothes; Posted 5 June

2001. http://emperors-clothes.com/articles/iared/mis.htm

25 "OSAMAGATE", by Michel Chossudovsky, Professor of

Economics, University of Ottawa; Centre for Research on

Globalisation (CRG), Montreal. Posted at globalresearch.ca9 October 2001.

http://qlobalresearch.calarticles/CH011 OAhtml

26 GAPING HOLES IN THE 'CIA VS. BIN LADEN' STORY,

by Jared Israel, Emperor's Clothes; Posted 8 November

2001. http://emperors-clothes.com/news/probestop-i.htm

1?-3"}-

27 Suppressed Details of Criminal Insider Trading lead

directly into the CIA's Highest Ranks, CIA Executive Director

"Buzzy" Krongard managed Firm that handled "put" Options

on UAL , by Michael C. Ruppert , FTW Publications, 9October 2001. Centre for Research on Globalisation,

globalresearch.ca, 20 October 2001.

http://qlobalresearch.calarticles/RUP110Ahtml28 The CIA's Wall Street connections, Transcript of interview

with Michael C. Ruppert. Guns and Butter, The EconomyWatch with Kellia Ramares and Bonnie Faulkner Aired on

KPF A 94.1 FM, Berkeley, CA Friday, October 12, 2001.

Centre for Research on Globalisation (CRG), Montreal,

globalresearch.ca 3 November 2001.

http://qlobalresearch.calarticles/RUP111Ahtml

29 David Shippers Interview, Alex Jones Radio Show;

October 10, 2001.

http://www.infowars.com/transcriptschippers.html

30 Some Got Warning: Don't Go Downtown on Sept. 11, By

GREG B. SMITH, Daily News; 10/12/2001.

http://www.nvdailvnews.com/2001-10-

12/News and Views/City Beatla-128273.asp

31 Who Did It? U.S. Searches for Terror Clues; Analysts See

Signs of Osama Bin Laden, By David Ruppe, ABC News,

Sept 11, 2001.

http://abcnews.qo.com/sections/world/DailvNews

/wtc terrorsuspects 010911.html

32 David Ruppe, ibid.

http://abcnews.qo.com/sections/world/DailvNews/wtc terrors

uspects 010911.html

33 Citizen, Can I See Your ID , by AI Martin, AI Martin Raw.

http://www.almartinraw.com/column37.html

34 ATTACK ON THE BILL OF RIGHTS, by Marty Jezer,

Brattleboro (VT) Reformer; 10/19/01.35 From the United States of America to the National

Security States of America, by AI Martin, AI Martin Raw.

http://www.almartinraw.com/column36.html36 Turkmenistan: China Plans To Aid Construction Of

Iranian Pipeline, By Michael Lelyveld, Radio Free Europe­

Radio Liberty; 17 November 1997.

http://www.rferl.orq/ncalfeatures/1997/11/F.RU.971117130313.html

37 Same Investors, Oil Companies Merge, Poised for War

Profits, H. Michael Sweeney, Noilwar.

http://www.proparanoid.com/priorknowledqe.htm#merqe

[Dale Alien Pfeiffer is a Michigan structural geologist, activist,and novelist. He can be reached at

enerqv [email protected]

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Clickhere to sendJhis.document .toyour. printer

Page 1 of 12

(1St>

THE IMPENDING SOVIET OIL CRISIS (ER 77­10147)Title:

Abstract:

Pages:

THE IMPENDING SOVIET OIL CRISIS (ER 77-10147)

0014

lET INDUSTRIAL ANALYSIS ISOVIET ENERGY ANALYSIS

Irltelligel1ce MemOfdl'ldum

The ltnpending S()viet. Oil Crisir

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CIA FOIA - THE IMPENDING SOVIET OIL CRISIS (ER 77-10147)

NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION

Unouthorizcd m~dosure Subject to CriminQI SanctiOns

CIAn~rI•.d ~, .• oemp1 hro. (I.",~I ::::oH'e: •• I'ln::IlI-aft S-ch.du!.

of !.O_tll-..c;3 •• Ii.-'Olie. .•• 1:9J:1~'yt

,n:I/. (21."nd 1]1""IJ·eorPoo:J;III:.:d, ~I:,gUlI 1.'It cn,:....,~ '...,... •• '01. #f) otI.I."W ..••----~----------------_._•....•. -----

Page 2 of 12

I..Sqerct -~

t'~ 77·10U7Merth 1977

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l11C' Impending Sovlef

Oil Cri~i:s

. The $avkt oil jnd~lstry Is in (!ouble. S,wiet; oil productjon wil1 SOU;) peak,. pos.~ibly liS early as next .'~ear Elnd 'certalnly not I,,(cr tl1"n the ~:ar1y I980s, The

maximum level of output tCIl~hed Is likely to be I~[wccn I I nnd 12 mmlon b:Jrrcls

per day Cb/d)-up from the ]976 Icvci of 10.4 rtimlon bid. MnxJrml111 levels tiro

, noi: Hkcly (0 be mnJnta]J1cd for long, !howcver, Ilhd the decline, when ii co 1111;5.

will be ~h.arp_ . j !iI

The Soviets have t ••••.o baslc problems: or,e orrescrves .md Onc of production .

. B:J·rring an extremely unHkcl~' discoverY of a mnssi\'e r.cw field dose to 1.1n existing

ftdd. ncw dej}Qsi[s will not be fowid j·apidly er-on;:!! W ma::It;tJn ;;;ccep(;)blc

!1:SC['i';::S-(o-productior\ ra"ios, Md Iho5U fjcld~ that' p.ccount for th~ bulk of $ovi;:; t

pmducliQn nr-e expericncing seVere wntcr encrollchmcl1.t. As {~rcsutt. ir;<;~nstJ\!.:1y

IIl,gc qmmtltlcs of Water mU!:t be lifted for cllch. b1lrrcl of oil p!tJd~j(;cd. and

high-cJJ.pacity submersihJe pumps-ob!.nirmblc pnly from th~ Unih:~ Statcs-wi!l he

rtq:.Ji~J if production dcdim::; ~re to. be st<!ved·off cn;n tcmpo[;Jri!y.

DurJng the l1..:xt d~c(jc!o. the USS R :rmy well find itself not <)Ill,' ~.nublc tt!

sU;lply oi] to E.r:stcrn Europe !1tH' the West o;~ the rr~scnl sCi:lk. bu: ;I(SO 11;Jvinr,

fo wmpete for OPEC {liI for its own ~!se.·nlis wOll!d be :! miJrkcd dla:ll;c frol11

the Current situ;Jtion, in which c:>:.port:; of {)il to the West rJnnu:1!ly provide- 40~tccat of toflll Soviet hJfd currency er.rnill!;5. The USSH hilS l:trg{: rescn'cs of •

cou] and !Il1tuml S"I$, but. those scheduled fur exploitation eve: the n(')( t dec:tde:

;tP: cast of tlte Umh, far rrom con~<Jming ccotcrs in the W{'stcln USSR. Distance:,

dir~:!tt:, omJ h: Il\irt win rrmkc exploitation ;md tntfiSport dif,jr;ult ant! cXPCnSi\'l',

EXI)Orts l1f gas ·•••·ill jncrcll~<:. ellr will I1C! f;ompc!J!i:HC for the loss or c;lrIli:J,!,. ••• from

thr: eXj10rt of oil. Although somc wbstitution of \;(1(!1und ~:Js for oil in. C01Tlc,tlc

U~~ .•••.111bIJ 1J()~s:blc It! the ~loJ1R nw, tile ('ffel:t of sllch 51~b:stH,,(jor: will bc rlli~1mltl

--"------- -NUl •..: C(}mm~11t·· '''''I qucrlc5 rct~(lrdlng lIII" menw~nndllm ;!re wl'koll1c. Tlw)' IUt"J~, directed !()

rite Office of EC(;:llImk: Re!>'.:J:c])

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~ I

Page 4 of 12

tn the short mo. Neither hydrool~ctrtc power trcnsmlHcd from th.e ellst nor

corutrtlction of nuclear electric plant5 (mainly In thl: Western USSR) can be

expected to nfford rnuch ~Jicf in the Soviet energy !;ttuation for r\'iorc th:tn :1

d!:cadc •.

The Problem

I. Unlike the United Stotcs. whkh has long rcstricted production for reasons

of cOllservation IInd profit. the USSR f~vors ,I forced draft nppro::lch. Short-term",...... •.f'sl •.•'~""" "_'1'011< ~"A ••.•.••••H.•. rA....•......1 n __ _ .....•........J,!. ....• .J. _

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I••"' •••••••••.••• .l:\V'''''' '"'' 1r""""'I."'''U I<VUp., I1U~ {':1:IIIIlI!!i, uno rcwar<Js are given lor

eKcccdir1!; them with I1ttJe regard to productl.·Jty over the longer I..:nn. Und,'r lhcseconditions, Sovi('t production has expanded much morc rapidly in the last 20 yearsthlln that of the United States.

Soviet and US Crude 011 ProductionIIlllID. BID

12

D

19!!1I 80 70

fiGURE 1

7G 70 80 815J---.-- proJKtf'd---i

2. The Soviet stakh:!nollite approach has led to (a) :m empha!ils on

development drHling over explorntion. with the rcsult that new discoveries atc feiling

to keep pl'CC with output growlh; Cb) Q\'crproductlon of existing wells and ncldsthroush rapid WilIer injection find other methods. with the result that less of the

Dil In place is ultimntely recovered; and (c) new capacit}lo; requiremcnts that SOOn

will run for beyond the Soviet 011 industry's capobility, Erfo!"ts to further im;rcilsc

flrod~lctlon-!lH:h Il! oIlrc dcmllndJ:d by the 80:lls of the rcc~ntly annfJllnccd S~ycorplan-can only Worsen the :illuatlon und mllke tho CVcJ1lUoJ downward slide marc

rttpld.

I~T

USSR: I"u,duclicn of Crud~ Oil,'by Rrghm

Million Dnrn!! P<" 0111

CiA F.s(£m;]tuof Puk Out~19~O_

.- .-1910 1975 .Goal. 1:I.!ihLow

...:Tot'"

; 1.069.8212,W11.811.0Western ~gion and Urnls

: 5.806.00S.715.64.9. Urnh,V(Jlgn

; 4.17

~:~~)

NA4.13.5Tllrlnr

'2.012.85 !

LS

Ollshklr0.810.81 2.9O,r.

Kllybyshev

0.70Q.69 ,O.Sn___'

- --

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1743n=rm

U.J;;:0.450.62 :0.605

Orenburg

: 0.150.24

wWl:r Volg"

' 0.140.14 r 0.60.4Udml.lrt

0.010.07~al(Jv

O.oJ0.03Iklorus-1J"

0.08

0.16 J

1.74 i0.2 )Cnui::o~U!

0.690,41

OJ j

lv.~rb:i1'dl.h3n

0.41O.JS . 0.41.0

Ukmlne

0.270.23 ;. :).2

Other

0.0.10.07 : NcglKoml :md Arklumgel'sk

a.1S0.22Q.SO j0040.4

E~s1em r~l!lon1.263.827.09 '6.16.1

WeslS!bcrl30.632.Q66.16 ;5.2S.l

Cenwll AJI",

0.58O.R2Nil0.90.8

M<lligysMnk

O.2t0.40 }0.54tsnba

0.050,08Tutkmcn

0.290.310.28Olhcr

0.031

O.OJ 1

! .Snkhnlln

. 0.050.04

0.11 }0.10.1o~h~r

. NeglN~g1

1,.'1\<;1\1.1111.1 ~:ucon~n"'u~.

,L

,3.: As th~ ratio of rc~o~~! to output hit!!. f{lUen, the bulk or Sovlct output

has COITI~ Increasingly from nl.:id!l. npproadling cKhnus.tlon. Tho rcsult hus Ixcn noect:clerntlon of drilling requirement:!:. which will level off or <Jcelim: only wht:rl-and

If-v~ry 'lm~c n~w L1I.hlitiotl~ ure mude to the producing rC$~rv'c basc. llw Sovil!B

~W.:':lk of this problem 111terms 6r thc dcplction orf~ct-thc umouot of new cllPllcity

n:qllit1:d 10 ofr",ct (kpft'1ioll of old ('ul'm:ity In each S-ycllr plan period.!

'2

rr'-~

4. During the 196+65 plan period. ot'lly 1.3 milUon bId {67 mmion tnnsper ~eaT) of capocily had to be replaced. In 1971·75, 5.1 million bid (254 million

tOI1~ per ycur) of rcl!ltl(:~mcnt cnpndry WII,,'I required bCCIUl'lC of mplll dcplct.l(m.

Viewed in. Linother WLlY. about 72 pcn:crn or 1970 cOIpm.:Hy h:l<I to be replacedby the end of 1975. 11~e target fot th~ 1976·80 plan is 10.6-; 0.8 million bId

{S30-540 million. tOrts pet ycarLoI new. capacity; 7.8 million b/~-cquIIJ to aboutgD .percent of the C(lfladty on lin(! In .L97S.-iS:lo 9rfscI dcpTctioll.lr" deph:tioT\

is more repld th:m the Soviets expcct-nnd. based on-·thcli--past record. it may

wcl~ bc-c-onsidcrabl>' more' of the 1975 capacity will have to be replaced.

RescrvC$

S. There is uncertainty about the Si7-C [)f the USSR's reserves. becausc of

deOnition~1 problems as well as Soviet scclY"~y. Our best estimatc is that Sovietproved rescrves are 3Q..)S, billion barTeI~. roughly comparable with those of the

United States. There is 110 doubt that Russinn proved rcscrw:s have been ramng

in r~ccnt Years, and there is very little chance that enough ncw oil will 00 di~co~rcdduring toe next few y"ars to appreci:!bly improve tbe rescf\·cs.to·production ratio.Indeed. d(~piCe rtm.Jor cffort~ it will probably detcriotrl!l: further.

6. Although the USSR has :Ibund.tnt potcotial tCserves in Arctic. East

Sjhcri31n, IInd offshore :maS. development of such reserves iS:lt least a decade away •

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Thu~" during the !lCx.! 8·10 years. almost :tll Soviet output will have EO come from

cxistlng fields cnd from new fields in c~ ~s[ing prodm:ing rCj!iol'ls,

Th~ Outlook fur Output rromF.:x.~tin!J ProductiDn Regiuns

, 7•. From World Wj),~U through 1970, the fU'owlh In Soviet oH output clime­

either from the Caspian ficlds Of. nftor the mid-19Scrs, front Inr~1,)fields in the

Ural$·Volg:l (t!gion. Since ,1970, neart~ :311output growth has come (tom WcstSiberia, primarily from the jpant Samotlor field. Current Soviet plans eaU for holding!lAAtcgatc output l1eLlrly constLlnt west ~f the Urnl~. while doubling production ~t'West SlbNiu, 8IJcuuse of a variety of 'problems. we Iwl!~ve thltt output w('.~! of

the, Urals will decline, while that of West Slberin :wll1 [nil fat short of dOllblln~.

! !;

8. Production from llo1ds in the wc5tcrn purt of the country I:,>comlnR

Increasingly ftom weater depths nnd from In-OU drilling which nnOW!! mo~ Inlcnsl •••~

eX(3lolta!lon of alNady tapped r~ervolrs. All growth in O\ltput through 1~80 will. ' ..

I

USSR: Additions to on Producing Capacity

;-

MtLUON BARRELS OF OIL PER DA.,

1.8

FIGURE 2

10.8

,.,'

.-:-'- 3.0-- GROY/TH

,. ~

4.0

. ' ,.,. '

,.1' ~ J,jjtf'!I"t, ! '(' I. '.;'J ,I' ,. ,I

I :' f;: :,;; .,

r •.

. 1.11

5.1

DEPI.Elh1~OmtT

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..•,I ! :: ,:

'"I' :i I ";, ... ,, ;, I " I;', ::,.i,', !, •.", ,'"

:1\ .: 'U i•

":,,rl: ," I ••.. I - ,"" ~

.:t:~ ~.'. 1.3: ,-:~~4;','.

.'

!." "I

,:".. i. ". - .. "t :::" I.~ .:.. 'I)I

:I'""

Page 8 ofl2

", •.•.l I ~I

1070·80 pi .• "

c(lm~ from West Siberh" wlll'rc Ill\.' il1h!l~pitl1blc dimntt.:. dlflkult terrain. ntHl Vllst

distances grently complicltt4.:' opcrntions. [n 1976. n!'lproxitn:Jt~ly 60 pCl\:clil of West

Siberian output :md toughly onc-fifth of ulltionnl productit'u cam" frOln the gi:!!It

Sumotlor field on the middle Ob'.Sovict soure\1S indicate that this field will rc;!ch

peak production In the nl.:xt year Of SO and will hold pcnk II.:\'~I~ for no ",orc

than 4 years. It .Is already CXJ11.'~~ocJ"grupid watef IncursIon. The _water ~ut rcachcd

47, percent In 1915. and; iru:rcasingqu::ItHitics "Ofl1u.id (W<itCf plus ~oil)-must bc,lifted to recover any givcn:qu:mtity of oil. Although ne\~tf'k'ltts arc bci'ng discoveredin West Slb~rla, no gianl: ne!!.!:> comparable to Snmotlor have been found.

The Drilling Problem

: 9. The USSR does not have Ihe drilling cupability 10 pursue adequ:ltc

dcvelopment lIod cxploroUol\ progrurnsslmultl.incously. The Sovich hnve some 1,600

active rigs, abo\lt .he sam~!ls the Untied States. In terms of metcrs drilled, however,the Soviet dfort amounts to only about one·fifth U13t of the United St3tes. InIQ71-75. the Soviet Ministry of the Oil Industry drilled a total ofaboul 52 millionmeters. 1n t 975 alonc, the United Sltttes drilled S3 million meters with about

1.700 rigs. We estimate that. even wHh !I maximum effort. the Soviets will notbe: able to come close to drilling by 1980 the 7S million meters called fOf by

their current S-year plan .

. '

10. The poor Soyiel' drilllng record Is in part thc fC!;UIt of the fact thut 80

percent of their drilling is done with turbodrilling rigs that arc highly inefficientfor deep drilling or for use in soft formatians. Greater access to advanced Westernt~hnology und rotary drilllna equipment could help allcvlntu the Soviet drilHn!! '

problem.

The Fluid Urtlng Problemi. ,

11. In the 1950-". when well!! In thc Umls-Volg:1 region began to stop flowing

nntufal1y, tho Soviets were forced to begin pu~plng. ft thnt time, howcyer.pumping equipment was In short supply. To forestall 11 slowdown 1n th.J growthIor 011 output. the Soviets ndoptl:!d the; practice of RUlsslve wnter Injection withIn

, aM I110ng the edge~ of ellch field. If: enough \Y~ter i! forced into 11.formnllon,, Lt rniSl:!5 ~crvoir pressures so that W~115once I1sUin now without pumplog,' The

, Soviet sys.tem differs from thc standard W~stcrn secondary recovcry technlquc or

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?G.R€r- jii ,

wDtcrf100ding ill thut the QbJc-::t Is 10 inclcll~c f:\lhcr t:um Just to malrHlJln premlf('.Much more w~ter 1.0; il\.itded th1l11 oil rroduced.

, ,

12•• Althoul::h mL1<;slvc WdN InjectIon c~n; boo~t ~rodllctlon for a time.c'icntuv.Ur tho watc: wiH find Cl channel of lcn~t r('sl~ta"c~ nnd brcnk throllghto

the oU-producing well, a procu.s that leaves bc~ind much ~U 111 the IcS$ rCj:Jnr.:n];!lt,;

portlons of the (.cirmat!.;In. When the w~lts beg/ri to show ·wa'tel' in large quantitlcs.I I _.~,the natural now will w>lIlll1y !top and the wells must be 'p\lmp~d. In thb ea~.however. conventlono] pumpIng equipment cannot be used; spcclnl hll':h·coj)Qcily

submersible pumps are needed bcc:msc much ~atc~r volucncs of nuid (water plusoil) must be lifted. ..

, , I\3. Such pumpJ\ began to bc, used extensive!}' 10 the USSR 10 the l>itc 1960s.

In ] 973, tha.o;cpumps provided 2:5 million bid of the So~ct total of 8.6 millionij

USSR: Fluid Lifting Requlrements1!I ttH 0~ UET~lt fDH3.Y.:II

FIGUP. E 3

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}lIoIl4I .~I •• u •.t·,"'~I~ t., nren. ~ UI1Ic3J "". 1I~5 ..r..•till !!II U .f.~n'"• nu.

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CIA FOIA - THE IMPENDING SOVIET OIL CRISIS (ER 77-10147) Page 10 of 12

bId. The Su •••icts h;.td ~omc 12.00U or thcs~ pumps in 1975, ::md their need ror

sllch cquirmlcnl is lncrenslng rJpidly as water encroachmcnt becomes 11prohlemin more urld mure fields., Allhou~h some WI;$.! E~lroflcun lI;ltion~ und the USSR

itJir:lr manuractuft< D JOWCI: capacity versiou of tho:sc pumps, Ihe Soviets recoimi1.c

nun the only pumps I:Idcqu1ItC' to del11 with their UfUng problem IIfC made hI the

Uni!cd States. The 1.000,pump$ alrcady purchased from the UnHcd Slates haven higher toted lifting cnpoclty 'lhsn the Il,oaO-{JUmps of domesticl>nr;ln. Even

In the United States, such pumps lire nuin'ufacturod 'bY-onl~two compl1nlc:.s and'

are' in short supply. As un' alh:rnntive to high·capaclty submcrsible pumps, lit leastin sOtn~ fields, the Soviets are considering wider, use of gas·lift equipment. Thc

kInd of projects they hQVC In mind :woutd rcI;J.ulre Inrgc-sc1Ilc imports of UStechnology nod lang Ictld times.' i

Tltr: Longer Tenn 01.1 Uook

,

14. The Jnitlol fallorr. wh~rI,1t comes. will almost 4;crtalnly he s.hl1rp; th!:!t"Dn~r

output may continue to faU sharply, level off, or pcrhap~ even Increase a.~newfjc!d~ are brought into prodl1ctlon in frontier areas. There Is 110 quc-stiO[1 that newf1elds-some quite large-win eventuoHy be di1icovered. Givclt the rnpid ratc of

dcpletlo[1 of exl!tlng ficld$ Dnd the technical difficulties nssocll1f,::d with exp1oratlonDnd cx'ploitatlorl In fronth:r nrcns, howcycr, we doubt thllt the new discovcrics

will come on stream rapidly enough to do mqre thur.. temporarily um:st the rapid

slide 'of Soviet output.

15. A'J WC :o>tlltcd earlier, only small nmounts of So••..ict production during

the. next decade will come from outside e~istjng proc!t1di'\g nreas. In the early 19805

new offshore Cuspla.n reserves mar mJ.ke somo small contribution to Qutput. asWIll neW dlscovcriC!l on th~ MangyshlBK Peninsula on the cn!f shore ('\1 the Caspian

and in the PcchClm region west of the Urnl$. The Soviets. IIlso h\1pc to find oilin deep structures in the northern part of West Slberia.'s Tyumcn' Oblnst Limilt::d

c~plorl1Uon In this rcgJon. how('vcr. ha..<; so far yielded 'mainly naturol gas podcondensate. I ~! ~

,i

16. Geo!ogleal condItions favumblc to II!r~ future disCQveric!\ cxi$t over muchof the Arctic offshore: rdglons (especially in the Barcnts and KDrn SeD!:), 11'1 the

East SlbQrlan lowland!!, In deep structure~ In the Ca~phm tJrca, IIr:tI l1~rhups. orrKlllw.:hrlt1HI IInd 8akhlln in the Scn or Okhotsk. Production from most of these:1fCn::, however. Is ut lenst 11decade away. 11'1 tha: ofr~horo Arctic, environmental

7

conditions lire much Illore ~cvr.:rl:! th:H1 In the North Set!: l4:dmo]o~y for I,.'XplOf(lIiotl

nOli prodm:lIcf\ In this fc!-,oion 'does l1ul y!:!t ,c!(lst, ~V()n in till: Wesl. AllhulI,!,:h

conditions [l1"C ftlore fao,'orablc "CDr S:JkJU1lin and in the Eas' Sibo..'riall lowhuuJs,

production and tran:o;portatio[J! difficl,iti·:S make it doubtrul Iha' signilic:mt~ __J .. _IL·I I ." •••

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CIA FOIA - THE IMPENDING SOVIET OIL CRISIS (ER 77-10147) Page 11 of 12

proullcuon cOUla uucc place un ~iI 10 YC:Jf$j)rtcr a mu.lor discovery-which hn~ yi:tto be ltl;tgc. The Icad time would b~_~.hortcr for production from dc<;r wcll.s inthe Caspian region; the USSR; however. lac.k.5 thc· ~Lljpr!1cnt ana i:xpi"ricnce·ni:ccss;tr)' to undcrt"kc 11 deep :drilling program witbOJut cx.fchsivc-Wcslcrri help.

Economic Impliclttlom

,

17. When oil pmduction SI()ps growing, and perhaps eVCn before. profQl.lnd

rcper~ussions will bc fclt on th~ domestic. economy of the USSR and on Itsintcrnalionw economic relations. The extent of such rcpNcu!t~ion~ can be only

guessed at without further research. AlII minimum. the USSR will find it extremely,difficult to continuc t1) simultaneou!:1y meet its (\wn rcquircrm:nts and (husc of

Enstern Europe while cxporting:to non·Communist countries on Ihc prcsent scalc.More pcs.o;iml!\tically, the USSR. wJII i!~drbecome un 011 importer.

18. I These are Import::!n! considcrntion'1 for the Sm1ct Union. IllloW supplies

three-fourths of the oil required by the Cummunist counlrics of Eastern Europe,and It undoubtedly wishes to I"Otuln th~ political a!1d economic leverage tllnt goes.

with being' thi:lr prJncipnl !Oupp1ier, For mOlriy ycnl'S (he export of oil tonOIl-'Comtnunist countries, mllinly in Western Europe. hus I:P-CI1 01t' USSR's l:1r~cstsingle sOUrce of hard currency.·

19. I In the long run, con~ideruble substitution for oil will be pos.'\iblcdom~UcBlIv And n.pl"hnl'¥: in ,.vnnrt •••••••.•••••~••••.•11 "'M.~ IIcen.., --' --- .--.-

~II·

i!

transmission must be s.olved before such resources can be fully c;otploited. Th":'

Soviets consider nuclear power to b<: the best source of lIew electric pO''''l'r inEuropean area.s. A program for constructing nuclcllr ),JOwerplllnts Is under WilY, but

it will be quite! somo time boro..., the,,, plana ca~;havc.Qn important effcct onthe: power base. In 1975 nuclear power n:pr~sen.t~d2 perct'!nt. of total powerprod..uction. and .It will reach Qply abOut 6 percent In ·1980.

I .__1: . -I· - ; ;. _I I: ..- ...:..! !:

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" ,THE JOINT CHIEFS OF STAFF

WASHINGTON 25, D.C.

. 13 l\1arch 1962,

, , ,

MEMORANDUMFOR THE SECRETARY 9F DEFENSE:Subject; Justification for US Military Intervention

in Cuba (TS) ,', ,/.

1. The Joint Chiefs of Staff have considered the attachedMemorandum'~or .the Chief 'of Operations, Cuba Project, whichresponds to a'·~equest of that office for brief but precisedescription of pretexts ,which would prOVide justificationfor US military intervention in Cuba.

( ,

For the Joint Chiefs of staff:

..2. The ,Joint Chiefs of~Staff recommend that the

proposed memorandum be forwarded as a preliminary submissionsuitable for planning purposes. It is assumed that therewill be similar submissions from other agencies and thatthese inputs will be used as a basis for aeveloping at~e-phas~d plan. Individual projects can then beconsidered on a case-by-case basis .

3. Further, it is assumed that a single agency will begiven th~ 'primary respon~ibility for developing milit~and para-military aspects of the basic plan. It isrecommended that this responsibility for both overt and,covert military operat+ons be assigned the Joint Chiefs ofStaff.

EXCLUDED FROM GDS

L. L. LEMNITZERChairman

Joint" Chiefs pr St

..

I.EnclosureMemo for Chier of Ope~at1ons, Cuba Project

S'(gTEMATICA.'lLU~IEW~ .. GeLBY JCS ON __ ~-a! - --:lr:i~~LA~SIFICAI!mi,9.l!Il!'!!LEll - ," ...•_----"'--.~ ..

,I!~"'rI

,.,

EXCLUDED FROM AijTOMATrc

REGRADING; DOD DIR 5200.10

, DOES NOT APPLY

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_ ••v In •• '.•.. "I LVI" L nit nU Llt\..A 11ur u Itn

AmffiX TO APPENDIX TO ENCLOSURE A ~~tt~~~'HtkPRETEXTS TO JUSTIFY US MILIT!lliY INTERVENTION IN OUBA

(Note: The ?ourses of action wp~ch follow are a preliminary

submission suitable only for planning purposes: They are

arranged neither ohronologioally nor in ascend2ng order.

Together w2th similar inputs from other agencies, they are

intended to provide a point of departure for the development

of a aingle, integrated, time-phased plan. Such a plan would

permit the evaluation of individual projects within the context

of cumulative, correlated actions designed to lead inexorably

to the objective of adequate justification for US military

intervention in CUba).

1. Since it would seem desirable to use legitimate

provooation as the basis for US military intervention in Cuba

a cover and deception plan, to include requisite prel1minary

actions ~uch as has been developed in response to Task 33 c,

Qould be exeouted as an initial effort to provoke CUban

reactions. Harassment plus deceptive actions to convince the

Cubans of imminent 'invasion would be emphasized. OUr military

posture throughout exeoution of the plan will allow a rapid

change from exercise to intervention if CUban reBponB~ j~Bt~£ies.

2. A series of well o~rdinated incidents ,will be planned_ r '

to take place in and around Guantanamo't3 give genuine

appearance of being done by hostile Cuban forces.

a. In~identa to establish a credible attack (not in

ohronologicalorder):

(1) Start rumors (many). Use clandestine radio.

(2) Land friendly Cubans in uniform lIover-the-fence"

to stage attack on base.

(3) Capture Ouban (friendly) saboteurs inside the

base.

(4) start riots near the base main gate (friendly

Cubans) •

- .')

.'

7Annex to Appendixto Enclosure A

u~tl~~~\Ht~---:r..~J-.-&P'~~UJ.R.t.f.NL-JlJU~.O.MI~.

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-. -_...~~N~U~Itlr--uvnnrn-'(5) Blow up ammunition inside the basei start fires.

(6) Burn airoraft on air base (sabotage).

(7)Lob mortar shells from outside of base into base.

Some "damage to installations.

(8) Capture assault tea.rns approaching :f.'romthe sea

or vicini"ty of GUantanamoCity.

(9) Capture militia grOUl) which stornlS the base.

(10) Sabotage Ship 1n harbor i large fires -- napthalene.

(11) Sink ship near tlaI'bor entrance. Conduct funerals

for mock-vlct~ (may be lieu of (10».

b. United states would resl)ond by e~ecuting offensive

ol)erations to secure water and power supplies, destroying

artillery and mortar emplaoements which threaten the base.

c. Commence large scale United states military operations.

3. A )lRemember the Maine 11 inoident oould be a:I':t'anged in

several forms:

a. We could blow up a US ship in Guantanamo Bay ahd

blame CUba.

b. He could blow up a d,rone (unmanned) vessel anywhere

in th~ Ouban waters. We could arrange to oause such incident

in the vicinity of Havana or Santiago as a spectacular result

of Cuban attack from tJ;le air or sea, or b·oth. The presence

of OUbanplanes or Ships merely inVe';&gating the intent of

the vessel could be fairly compelling evidenoe that the ship

was taken 'under attack. The nearnesa to Havana or Santiago

woUld add credibility espeoially to those people that might

have heard the blast or ha.veBeen the fire. TheUScould

f'ollow up with an air/sea rescue operation covered by US

fighters to I!evaouatell remaining members of the non-existent

orew. Casualty lists in US newspapers would ca.use a helpful

wave of na~ional indignation.

4. We CO~~ddevelop a C01lD1lun:tst. Cuban -cerror campaign in

the Miami a:rea~ in other Florida oities and even in Washington.

"'1:'0"'.

,,"

",'>"

.•.~

..-,.-'-- _ ... -.--." --_.-

8Annex to Appendixto Enolosure A

":~.,.-

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."I "L "':n (. I \.... .)r e.1I ••••.•••••••..••• n ....

The terror oampaign oould be p01!t~lll~~{)~~refugee .... king

haven in the United states. Wecould sink a boatload o~ Cubans

enroute to Florida (real or simulated). we could foster attempts

on lives of Cuban refugees in the United states even to the

extent of wounding in instanoes to be widely publicized.

Exploding a few plastio bombsin carefully chosen spots, the

arrest of CUbanagents and the ~elease of prepared documents

substantiating Cuban invo1veznerltalso would 'be helpful in

projecting the idea of an irresponsible government.

5. A IICuban-based, Oastro-supportedll filibuste:t' could be

s~lated against a ne1ghboring Oaribbean nation (in the vein

of the 14th of June invasion of the Dominican RepUblic). We

know that Castro ia backing subversive efforts clandestinely

against Haiti, Dominican Republic, Guatemala, and Nicaragua at

present and possible others. These efforts can be magnified and

additional ones cOrltrived for e~osure. For example, advantage

oan be taken of the sensitivity of the Dominioan Air Force to

intrusions within their national air space. "Cubanl1 B-26 or

0-46 'type airorat't oould make cane-burning raids at. night.

Soviet Bloc inaendlarles oould be found. This cquld be aoupled

with !lCuban"messages to the Communist UIldersround in the

Domin;l..canRepublio and 'I CUban11 shipments of arms which \'iould- ,• '"I

be found, 03:' intercepted, on the beach.'

6. Use of MIG type airoraft by USpilots coUld provide

additional provocatiorl. Harassment of civil air, a.ttacks on

sur.t'ace shipping and dest:t'uction of USmilitary drone airoraft

by .MIGtype planes would be useful a.s oomplementary actions.

An F-86 properly painted would convince air passengers that they

saw a Cuban MIG,especially if the pilot 01' the transport were

to announce suoh fa.ct. The pr.:t.ma.rydrawback to this suggestion

appears to be the secUJ:'ity risk 1nhe:t'ent in obtaining or modify­

ing an aircraft. However, reasonable copies or the MIGcould

be produced from US resour.ces in about three months.

9Annex to Appendixto Enclosure A

-'. - - - - -

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nUl unA

~~~lA~""'~..~I,!";, \ ~t~ 2" ..

7. Hijacking attempts aga.ins~ civil air and surface craft

should appear to continue as harassing measures oondoned by the

government of Cuba. Ooncurrently, genuine defections of Cuban

civil and mill tary aix' and surfaoe oraft ahould be encouraged.

8. It is possible to create an incident which will demonst!'ate

oonvincingly that a Cuban'aircraft has attacked and shot do~~

a ohartered civil airliner enroute from the United states to

Jamaioa, Guatemala, Panama or Venezuela. The de6t:Lnation would

be chosen only to oause the flight plan route to cross Cuba.

The passengers oould be a grOUP of oOllege students off on a

holiday or any grouping of persons with a common interest to,support chartering a non~scheduled flight.

a. An aircraft a.t Eglin .I\FBwould be pail1ted and

numberE(!as an exact duplicate tor a oivil registered

aircraft belonging to a CIA proprietary organization in the

M:1.amiarea.. At a designated time the duplicate would be

substituted for the a~tual civil aircraft and would be

loaded with the selected passengers, all boarded under

carefully prepared aliases. The actual registered

aircraft would be converted to a drone.

b. Take of!' times of the drone aircraft and the aotual

aircraft will be soheduled .to allow a rendezvous south or- ,I' '-/

Florida. From the rendezvous point the passenger-oarrying

aircraft will descend to minimum altitude and go directly

into an aUXiliary field at Eglin AF.Bwhere arrangements will

have been made to evacuate the paasengers and return the

airora.!'t to its original status. The drone a:Lrcra.!'t

meanwhile will oontinue to fly the filed flight plan. When

over Cuba the drone will being transmitting on the inter­

national dlstrBs6 frequency a "MAYDAY"message stating he

is under attack by CUbanMIGa.ircraft. The transmission

vdll be interrupted by destruction of the airoraft which will

be triggered by radio signal. This will allow ICAOradio

Ii-'

.•.. '

, ,

l163

10 Annex to Appendixto Enclosure A

, ~,

,,''I,,

J,

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., .'1',:

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No other

The pilots

nUlunn

Annex to Appendixto EhclosUI'e A

the US what

11

The pilot would then fly direotly

Crews would be briefed to remain at

The pilot and aircraft wou19 then have

Search Ships and aircraft could be dispatched

stations in

1

a. Approximately 4 or :5 F-IOl ai3:'craft·will be dispatched \'in trail from Homestead AF.B, Florida, to the vicinity of CUba.

! .\I\aircraft for an air defanse exercise in southern Florida.

Their mission will be to reverse course and s:1.mU1atefakir

frequent intervals.

he had been jumped by MIGs and was going down.

calls would be made.

west at extremely low altitude and land at a secure base, an

least 12 miies off the Cuban ooast; however, they would be

required to carry live ammunition in the event that hostile

actions were taken by the Cuban MIGs.

b. On one such flight, a pre-briefed pilot would fly

tail-end Charley at considerable interval betwe?D aircraft.

lihile near the Cuban Island this pilot would broadoast that

These aircraft would conduct variations of these rl~ghts at

of business.

Eglin auxiliary. The airoraft would be met by the proper..people, quiokly stored and given a ~~wtail number. The

pilot who had performed the mission under 'an alias, would

resume hiB proper identity and return to his nor.mal place

has happened to the airoraft' instead of the US trying to

15 to 20 miles off the Ctl.bancoast and depart.

d:tsappeared.

c. At preoisely the same time that the aircraft was

presumably shot down a submarine or small surface craft

would disbl.tt'seF-IOl parts, paraohute, etc., at a.pproximately

and parts of aircraft found.

they knew.

returning to Homestead would have a true story as far as

over international waters in an unprovoked attack.

IIse11" the incident.

9. It is possible to create an incident which win make itappear that Communist CUban MIGs have destroyed a USAF aircraft

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~ ~ - .•• _ '"".'"" ••• ...,.., ••••. ~4

ENCLOSURE B

FACTS BEARING ON THE PROBLEM

•• W'. "Inl..~1':! 'J

*1. The Joint Chiefs of Staff have previously stated

that US unilateral military inte~vention in CUba can be

undertaken in the event that the Cuban regime commits hostile

acts against US forces or property which would serve as an

incident upon'which to base overt intervention. "

2. The need for positive action in the event that current

covert efforts to foster an internal Cuban rebellion are

unsuccessful was ind1cated** by the Joint Chiefs of Staff

on 7 March 1962J as follows:

n determination that a credible internal

revolt is impossible of attainment during the next

9-10 months will reqMire a decision by the United States

to develop a Cuban IIprovocationl1as justification for

posl tive US military action. 11

3. It is underst90d that the Department of State also is

preparing suggested courses of action to develop justification

for US military intervention in Cuba.

* JCB 1969/303** JCB 1969/313

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WHAT IS PROMIS AND WHAT DOES IT DO?

PROMIS stands for Prosecutor's Management Information System.

In the late 1970s the legal system of the United Court imposed a compulsory license on the 44

States Department of Justice (DoJ) was comprised largest U.S. ~ttome~s Offices for ~heperp.etualuse

of more than thirty semi-autonomous regional U.S. of the 32-blt. v.ersl~n of Pro~IS and Iss~edh aAttorne s (USA) offices. Each had a computer permanent InJunctr~n against any urt er

systemy to track case man~g.e~~nt. for dissem.inationof Promls by the government exceptprosecutions, investigations, and CIVil IItrgatlons. under license from Inslaw.

The problem was that they used as many as seven Subsequent appeals by the government saw the

different programming languages. This made the original rulings overturned on legal, ~ot factu~1,transmission and sharing of information between grounds. Legal actions in the case continue to thiSoffices virtually impossible. The computers in the day.

USA's office in Sa~ Francisco could not read files Hamilton told FTW that none of the uses described

sent from the USA In New York. above had anything to do with any licensing

The genius of Hamilton and Inslaw was to c~eatea agreements for the software's use to tr~cksoftware program that could access files In any terrorists, intelligence matters or worldWidenumber of databases and programming languages financial transactions.

and translate and then unify them into one The paper tracking of the refinements in Promisconsistent file. Promis was the Rosetta stone of after the legal dispute erupted between INSLAWcomputer languages. and the Reagan administration, verifies that atInslaw won a $10 million, three-year contract in least one version of Promis was given to MartinMarch 1982 to install a 16-bit architecture version Marietta, now Lockheed-Martin, which is now theof Promis, which the govemment had the right to nation's second largest defense contractor. Untiluse but not the right to modify without paying late 2000, Lynne Cheney, the wife of Vicelicense fees to Inslaw, on government computers President Dick Cheney sat on Lockheed's board ofin the 22 largest U.S. Attorneys' Offices. In April directors. Research conducted by many1983, the second year of the three-year contract, investigative joumalists has indicated that Promisthe government modified Inslaw's contract in order has spread widely throughout the defenseto obtain delivery of a 32-bit architecture version of contractor network. FTW has received multiplePromis, which the government could not even use reports of Promis use by companies andwithout paying license fees. In modifying the institutions like DynCorp, Raytheon, Boeing, SAICcontract, the government promised to pay license and the Harvard Endowment as well as byfees if it decided to substitute the 32-bit version for government agencies such as the Financialthe 16-bit version. In May 1983, the month Criminal Enforcement Network (FINCEN) and thefollowing Inslaw's delivery of the 32-bit version of U.S. Treasury.

Promis, the govem~ent reneged on i.tscontractual Here's how owerful the software is.agreement to pay license fees and Simultaneously . pbegan to find fault with Inslaw's implementation ApproXimately two weeks after the September 11services as justification for withholding services attacks on the World Trade Center and thepayments. Pentagon, the History Channel aired a

. documentary entitled "The History of Terrorism." InT~~ Ju~tice D~partment thereaft~r Withheld $1.77 that documentary, a law enforcement officermillion In services payments forcln.g In.slaw to file described some of the methods used to track

for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection In February terrorist movements. He stated that "computers"1985. were able to track such things as credit cardIn January 1988, following several we~ks of trial in purchases, entry and exits visas, telephone and1987, the U.S. Bankruptcy Cou~ Issued fully utility usage etc. It was implied that these diverselitigated findings of fact that the Justice Department data base files could be integrated into one unified"took, converted, stole" the 32-bit version of Promis table. He gave an example that through the use of:'through trickery,. fra~d and .. deceit," such a system it would be possible to determineImplemented the 32-blt version of Promls In the 44 that if a suspected terrorist entered the country andlargest U.S. Attorneys Office~, and ~hen tried to was going to hide out, that by monitoring the waterforce INSLAW out of bUSiness In order to and electrical consumption of all possible suspectsincapacitate INSLAW from litigating the Justice in a given cell, it would be possible to determineDepartment's theft of Promis. The Bankruptcy

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where the terrorist was hiding out by seeing whoseutility use increased. Conversely, it would bepossible to determine if a terrorist was on the moveif his utility consumption declined or his localshopping patterns were interrupted. Aren't those"club" cards from your supermarket handy?

This is but the barest glimpse of what Promis cando. Mated with artificial intelligence it is capable ofanalyzing not only an individual's, but also acommunity's entire life, in real time. It is alsocapable of issuing warnings when irregularitiesappear and of predicting future movements basedupon past behavior.

In the financial arena Promis is even more

formidable. Not only is it capable of predictingmovements in financial markets and trackingtrades in real time. It has been reported, on anumber of occasions, to have been used, via the"back door" to enter secret bank accounts,including accounts in Switzerland and then removethe money in those accounts without being traced.Court documents filed in the various INSLAW trials

include documentation of this ability as well asaffidavits and declarations from Israeli intelligenceofficers and assets.

The one essential weakness of Promis is that it

must be physically installed on a targetedcomputer for it to be effective. Hence, if Osama binLaden is able to penetrate a U.S. Governmentsystem it must mean that Promis is there.

FTW has previously reported that the CIA usesPromis to track stock trades in real time. Thus, as

described in FTW stories on insider trading directlyconnected to the September 11 attacks, theAgency had the ability to determine that immediateimpending attacks were planned against bothAmerican and United Air Lines. The IsraeliHerzliyya Institute for Counter terrorism was ableto publish a detailed accounting of the trades withindays of the attacks and their report underscoresthe connection between counter terrorist efforts

and the monitoring of financial markets. [See FTW

Vol. IV, No 7 - Oct. 15, 2001] Suspicions of CIAadvance knowledge of the attacks wereheightened when FTW disclosed that the current

Executive Director of the CIA, A.B. "Buzzy"Krongard was, until 1998, the CEO of A.B. Brown,the company which handled many of thesuspicious trades.

All of these abilities were a given when this writer

met with members of the RCMP National SecurityInvestigation Section in the summer of 2000. Ourmeetings were reported in the Toronto Star and

are described in the previously referenced issue ofFTW. A key question that lingered after the

meetings with the RCMP was how many versionsof the software had the CIA and the U.S.

government given out and might they not havebeen also using a back door against "friendly"nations for economic motives to give advantage toU.S. companies. It was not a question that theRCMP dismissed as unlikely.

In another mind boggling development, onNovember 10 The Calgary Sun reported: U.S.police said many of the suspected al-Qaidaterrorists were nabbed through the use of a state­of-the-art computer software program calledPromis The system interfaces with any databaseand can provide information on credit card,banking, pension, tax, criminal and immigrationrecords. Police can input an alleged terrorist nameor credit card and the software will provide detailsof the person's movements through purchases orphone records." After so many years of denialsthese public confirmations that Promis is widely inuse must come as a relief to Hamilton who now

can walk into court and reopen his case. But theyalso indicate that newer generations of softwarehave likely replaced the legendary program thathas been connected with so much death, intrigueand mystery.

The FOX story reported that Osama bin Ladenonce boasted that his youth "knew the wrinkles ofthe world's financial markets like the back of their

hands and that his money would never be frozen."He may be right. And an administration so lost incovering up criminal conduct - no less than theconduct of the ones which preceded it -- whiletrying to fight a war at the same time -- might finditself doubly wounded by the software of BillHamilton and Inslaw.

PROMIS & ETHNO-SPECIFIC BIO-WARFAREWEAPONS: The Last Circle describes in detail

how Promis software was modified byRiconosciuto to allegedly include the back door"eavesdropping" capability but also enhanced withone form of AI and subsequently applied to the

development of new weapons systems including"ethnospecific" biowarfare compounds capable ofattacking specific races.

PROMIS & MICROSOFTIWINDOWS SYSTEMS:

In the winter of 94-95, Inslaw's investigator intoPromis, a former green beret named McCoy,reveled to FTW, that he was using former GreenBerets to conduct physical surveillance of theWashington, D.C. offices of Microsoft in connection

with the Promis case. Subsequent thereto FTW

received information indicating that piracy ofMicrosoft products at the GE Aerospace Herndon

facility were likely tied to larger objectives, possiblythe total compromise of any Windows based

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product. It is not by chance that most of the militaryand all of the intelligence agencies in the U.S. nowoperate on Macintosh systems.

PROMIS & FINANCIAL MARKETS: The Tyreediagrams laid out in detail how Promis, afterimprovement with AI, had allegedly been matedwith the software of Jackson Stephens' firmSystematics. In the late seventies and earlyeighties, Systematics handled some 60-70% of allelectronic banking transactions in the U.S. Thegoal, according to the diagrams which laid out(subsequently verified) relationships betweenStephens, Worthen Bank, the Lippo Group and thedrug/intelligence bank BCCI was to penetrateevery banking system in the world. This "cabal"could then use Promis both to predict and toinfluence the movement of financial marketsworldwide.

Tyree informed FTW that just before McCoy'sdeath, he had given McCoy information on "Elbit"flash memory chips, allegedly designed at Kir Yat­Gat south of Tel Aviv. The unique feature of theElbit chips was that they worked on ambientelectricity in a computer. In other words, theyworked when the computer was turned off. When

combined with another newly developed chip, the"Petrie," which was capable of storing up to six

. months worth of key strokes, it was now possibleto burst transmit all of a computer's activity in themiddle of the night to a nearby receiver - say in apassing truck or even a low flying SIGINT (SignalsIntelligence) satellite. According to Tyree this wasthe methodology used by Jonathan Pollard and theIsraeli Mossad to compromise many foreignembassies in Washington.

PROMIS & BIG PICTURE: Tyree described howPromis progeny, having inspired four newcomputer languages had made possible the

positioning of satellites so far out in space that theywere untouchable. At the same time the progenyhad improved video quality to the point where thesame satellite could focus on a single human hair.The ultimate big picture.

PROMIS & MECHANICAL HUMANS: Tyreeexplained that Promis progeny had also evolved tothe point where neural pads could be attached to

plugs in the back of the human head and thoughtcould be translated into electrical impulses thatwould be equally capable of flying a plane or wiretransferring money. Names like Sandia, Cal-Tech,Micron, Tech University of Graz, Oded Leventerand Massimo Grimaldi were mentioned. Data, suchas satellite reconnaissance, could also now be

downloaded from a satellite directly into a humanbrain. The evolution of the artificial intelligence hadprogressed to a point where animal behavior and

thought were being decoded. Mechanical humanswere being tested. Animals were being controlledby computer.

PROMIS & THE NAGASAKI SYNDROME: Then,

placing the evolutions of Promis in context with theCanadian story Tyree asked a question as to whyone would really now need to go to all the troubleof monitoring all of a foreign country's intelligenceoperations. "There's an easier way to get what Iwant," he said. "I access their banks. I access theirbanks and I know who does what and who's

getting ready to do what," he said. He describedhow Canada had been provided with modifiedPromis software which Canada then modified, or

thought they had modified, again to eliminate thetrap door. That software turned loose in thefinancial and scientific communities then became

Canada's means of believing that they weresecuring the trap door information from the entitiesto whom they provided their versions of Promis.

But, unknown, to the Canadians the Elbit chips inthe systems bypassed the trap doors andpermitted the transmission of data when everyonethought the computers were turned off and secure.

A weapon is only good if someone knows what itscapability is. Prior to using the atomic bomb it wasirrelevant." He continued, "They refer to it as theNagasaki Syndrome."

Suggested Reading:

- The Washington Times - Search Archives for"Promis"

- Insight Magazine - a four part series byinvestigative reporter Kelly O'Meara located athttp://www.insightmag.com/archive/200101307.shtm!. If the link is broken, do an archive searchfrom their main web page atwww.insjghtmagazine.com.

- "The Last Circle" - An online e-book by CarolMarshalllocated at

http://www .1ycaeum.org/books/books/last cire le/.

"Trail of The Octopus" - by Lester Coleman, 1993,Bloomsbury Publishing, London.

- The Inslaw Affair -

http://www. webeom.eom/~pinknoiz!covert/jnslaw.

html. Includes Congressional testimony supportingInslaw and a record of court proceedings.

- FTW: Vo!. IV, No 7 - Oct. 15,2001 ­

http://www.fromthewilderness.com/fTee/pandora/O52401 promis.html.

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A Planet in Crisis

By Dale Alien Pfeiffer

The world's scientific community has issued an

unprecedented series of wamings over the past

decade.1 They have worked feverishly to assess the

state of the planet, and have found that all of the

Earth's ecosystems are suffering, with many near the

point of collapse. They wam us that we have one

generation, or at most two, to remedy this situation.2

Yet even they do not understand how little time we

have left. They tell us that business as usual cannot

go on. And their assessment goes unheeded.

We are wamed that the planet is threatened by global

climate change and by ozone depletion. Ice masses

in the Arctic and Antarctic are beginning to break up,

and species vulnerable to increased UV penetration

are diminishing. Skin cancers and eye cataracts areon the increase, as is desertification the world over.

Northem species are retreating as warm-loving

species expand from equatorial regions to highlatitudes, bringing with them diseases once termed

tropical. And plant species the world over, including

many of our important crop species, are stressed by

increased ultraviolet penetration.3

We are already in the middle of the third greatest

extinction event in the history of the planet. Theextinction rate is from 100 to 1,000 times in excess of

the natural rate of extinction.4 The diversity of life onthis planet, which is a clear indication of the health of

the biosphere and its ability to adapt to change, is

severely diminished. Humankind has appropriated

fully half of the incipient sunlight on this planet

available for photosynthesis, and has put intocultivation virtually all of the arable land on thisplanet.s The rest of the biota is forced to make due

with the marginal lands which are left, or to scavengefrom our refuse.

Modem agriculture is draining the soil of nutrients far

faster than they can be replaced, while soils are beingeroded wherever they are exposed. Surface water is

being diverted to the point that in many riverbeds

barely a trickle remains, and groundwater is beingpumped out for agricultural and industrial use at rates

exceeding the recharge rates many times over.6 The

world's fisheries are collapsing.? Everywhere,

supplies of vital resources are being depleted.8

At the other end of the entropy scale, garbage dumps

are overflowing. Pollution, heavy metals and

manufactured chemicals are tainting the atmosphere,the water, and the ground, entering into food chains

everywhere. It is doubtful that there is a person alive

today who is not storing manufactured poisons in her

or his body.9

This is but a sampling from a myriad of problems

associated with conducting business as usual. The

world scientific community is waming us that we must

deal with these problems now, while there is still time,

or these problems will deal with us. Yet few of these

scientists know how very little time we have to deal

with these problems. We do not have a generation or

two. In all likelihood, we have at most a few years.

Within the next 5 to 10 years, our energy base will

begin to contract irreversibly. This shrinking energy

base will be due to the inevitable peak and decline of

global oil production. We currently live in the opulence

of the oil age. Each of us has the energy equivalent of

some fifty slaves to do our work for us, and to pamper

us with all of the latest technological comforts.

Hydrocarbons are used as feedstock for over

500,000 different products: fertilizers, medicines,

plastics, insulation, computers, asphalt, inks & toners,

paints, glues, solvents, antiseptics, golf balls, COs,

trash bags, nail polish, detergents, and chewing gum

- to name but a few. 10 And virtually all of our industrial

processes are run by the energy of hydrocarbons.

Hydrocarbons have provided us with a treasure trove

of high-quality, easily obtainable energy, from which

we could draw at an unlimited rate for so long as the

supply lasted. And it is that abundant energy store

which has powered all of our technological advances,

including the green revolution, making possible a

nearly logarithmic growth in human population. When

it comes to the bang for the buck, there is nothing to

equal oil. One liter of petrol holds as much energy as

1,000 liters of natural gas, 3 kilograms of firewood, or

24 solar panels working all day in sunny Brisbane.11Oil provides 1.3 to 2.45 times more economic value

per kilocalorie than coal.12

Yet we are fast approaching the day when we will

have produced all the easily obtainable oil.13 From

here on out we must invest increasing amounts ofenergy to produce oil. In short order, we will reach a

day when it will take as much energy to produce (Le.,

extract and, ultimately, refine and bring to market) abarrel of oil as we will get out of that barrel of oil. Past

this point, the net energy of oil production will fall into

the negative range. We will never run out of oil; there

will always be some oil in the ground. Oil wells are not

abandoned because they dry up - they are

abandoned because the net energy production hasreached zero.

Nothing has the bang for the buck of oil, and nothing

can replace it - either separately or in combination.

Ethanol has a net energy value of zero (notaccounting for soil and water damage and other costs

due to unsustainable agricultural practices) - it is

subsidized as a boon to agribusiness.14 Solar energy

produces marginal net energy, and solar photovoltaic

cells (PVC) are built from hydrocarbon feed stocks.

Wind turbines do have an appreciable net energyprofile - but the wind is intermittent at best.1s

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The highly touted hydrogen fuel cells are not an

energy source at all, but are more properly termed a

form of energy storage. Free hydrogen does not exist

on this planet. It requires more energy to break a

hydrogen bond than will ever be garnered from that

free hydrogen. The current source of hydrogen is

natural gas - that is, a hydrocarbon. In the envisioned

system of solar PVC & hydrogen fuel cells, every

major component of the system, from the PVC to the

fuel cells themselves will require hydrocarbon energy

and feedstocks. The oil age will never be replaced by

a hydrogen fuel-cell economy.16

Coal is abundant, but its net energy profile is poor

compared to oil, and will continue to diminish fast.

Coal production is extremely harmful to the

environment, and burning coal is far dirtier than oil.17

Nuclear power plants are simply too expensive to

build, uranium is rare, and the wastes (including

decommissioned plants) must be stored and guarded

virtually forever. 18

Industrial, green revolution-style agriculture is

particularly energy intensive. Every calorie of food

produced today requires 10 calories of hydrocarbon

energy.19 This includes the energy of packaging and

shipping to the store, but not the energy of

consumers traveling to and from the store, nor the

home energy costs of cooking the food. Without

hydrocarbons, this planet can only produce enoughfood to sustain a population of 2.5 billion. The current

world population is in excess of 6 billion. In the US,

without industrial agriculture, we will only be able to

feed 2/3's of our current population.2o

Our energy base will soon begin to contract. The

planet's resources are being depleted, and we arebeing faced with a planet in crisis. Business as usual

cannot go on.

Business as Usual

Instead of focusing on these critical problems, which

threaten to undermine the quality of life on this planet,

we have chosen to ignore them. Instead of looking for

and implementing answers, we put the bulk of our

efforts into denying the very existence of these

problems or, failing that, denying that anything needsto be done about them. At most, we shake our heads

before continuing with our conspicuous consumptionand our push for a global free market.

Neo-classical economists tell us that the market will

solve all of our problems. They assure us that

pollution, resource depletion, the collapse of

ecosystems and the failure of agriculture will produce

economic stimulus which will spur the discovery of

new resources and the development of new

technologies. The market, they say, will maintain

equilibrium no matter how much people and the

environment have to suffer as a consequence. But

It60

we must avoid any impetus towards regulations

which might restrict economic growth. They have no

clue how economic growth can be maintained with a

shrinking energy base, so they blithely deny any

possibility of the latter.

The neo-classical economists believe that free market

capitalism has proven its supremacy through the

collapse of authoritarian communism. Globalization is

the endgame of capitalism, pushing for open access

to resources throughout the globe while driving down

labor costs to provide cheap products and maximum

profits. All we have to do to share in the benefits of

this supposedly benevolent system is to consume,consume, and consume more.

Yet the power disparity upon which this system is

based has been exaggerated to the breaking point.

The royalty and the robber-barons of previous erasnever dreamed of such a concentration of wealth as

that experienced now by the Waltons, the Gates, andthe Eisners of the world. In the United States as of

2002, the average CEO made 282 times as much as

the average worker.21 And the average worker today

in the US is actually making comparatively less than

30 years ago, though worker productivity hasincreased.22

Outsourcing has given corporations the ability to

move jobs to wherever workers can be paid the least,

and where their operations will be subjected to the

least regulation and the least taxation. White collar

workers are no less vulnerable to outsourcing. Even

service sector jobs are moving out of the US

whenever possible. And to fill the poor paying jobs

that remain, corporations are bringing in tens of

thousands more immigrants every year. As a result,globalization has become a race to the bottom for the

working class, for communities, and for ecosystemsthroughout the world.

Not only are people in the working class working

harder for less pay, they are also receiving fewer

benefits than comparatively 30 years ago.23 In the

US, consumers are maintaining a record level of

personal debt, and personal bankruptcy now exceeds

the divorce rate. Meanwhile, our social safety net is

being dismantled and our infrastructure is beingallowed to decay, where it is not being privatized.

Public education has to go begging while the prison

industry is one of the fastest growing industries in thecountry.24

Rugged individualism is the standard of the day,forcing all of us into direct competition. The basic

human instinct toward cooperation has been all but

forgotten in the mad rush to push everyone else

aside. Our society has become atomized; the village

green has been replaced by the shopping mall. Opendebate and the free communication of ideas and

news can now only be found in cyberspace.

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Yet, at the same time, true individuality and originality

has become suspect. People are encouraged to

conform. Cultural distinctions are being lost in the

homogenization of the cultures of the globe - what

Benjamin Barber called "McWorfd."

Much of the public is becoming increasingly bovine,

unquestioningly following authority. Critical thinking

has been replaced by reactionary impulses, response

to emotional appeals, and other substitutes forrational debate. Atomized and removed from direct

interaction with the world around them, the

overworked populace are largely dependent on the

cultural fodder which is tendered to them by the

marketplace. It's a diet of mental junk food, blended of

anxious fantasy, appeals to consume, fear mongering

and quietism, promoted by media industry whose

paying advertisers prefer an audience of passive

spectators, addicted to entertainment and largelyunable to govem their own affairs.

The Result of Business as Usual

None of this should come as a surprise. This is all anatural and foreseeable result of business as usual in

a capitalist system. In that system, capital generates

profit through the exploitation of labor and resources.

So, as capitalism approaches its climax on a global

scale, it has to result in an unstable power disparity

with the concentration of wealth among a small and

exclusive upper class, an impoverished and

disempowered working class, bankrupt communities,

overstressed ecosystems and a depleted resource

base. The only way to avoid this is to do away withcapitalism.

Capitalism cannot be reformed. Any attempt to

regulate it more fairfy, any attempt to reform

capitalism - be it monetary reform or any other sort ofreform - is destined to fail due to the basic unalterable

nature of capitalism. Regulations and reforms mayhelp to level out the playing field for a time, but in the

long run capitalism will find a way to circumvent or

deregulate any attempt to temper it. Capitalism is a

system of exploitation which is ultimatelyunsustainable.

As such, capitalism is antithetical to democracy. A

system is democratic only to the extent that its

citizens are equal - in their political rights; in their

access to participatory social space; in their

opportunities to secure purchasing power without the

threat of poverty or asset seizure; and in their

recourse to the law, whose equal protection must be

guaranteed to everyone if the term "democracy" is to

meaningfully apply. Genuine popular sovereignty (the

literal meaning of democracy) is sustained by an

informed citizenry. Yet capitalism is based upon the

exploitation of power disparities, and its smooth

operation is maintained by a disempowered,uninformed working class.

/16(

Here lies the reason for the failure of democracy in

the US. And here is the secret of why our founding

fathers chose a system of representative democracy,

and why the ratification of the US Constitution was

resisted by the public in its day. The framers of the

constitution were, without exception, rich white males

worried about a popular uprising. Under the draperies

of democracy, they designed a political system where

decision making power was insulated from the

general population and easily controlled by the rich

and powerful. This disparity was later heightened by

granting a protected status and legal rights to

corporations.25

As a result, every war the US has ever fought, every

intervention the US has ever sponsored, and every bit

of foreign aid the US has ever supplied was

undertaken to support the right of the upper class to

exploit labor and resources, all under the guise of

democracy.

An End to Business as Usual

Business as usual can no longer be allowed to

proceed. To go on with business as usual is to

promote the collapse of civilization, the destruction of

ecosystems, the death of billions of human beings,untold suffering and impoverishment for those who

survive, and just possibly the extinction of life on this

planet at a level to match or exceed the end of the

Permian Era.26 And all this to ease our consciences,

as we allow the end play of unbridled greed andignorance.

We cannot trust our elected leaders to do the right

thing, much less our corporations. There is very little

time left, and it could very well be impossible at thispoint to redesign our entire civilization. But we can

possibly restructure our own lives and our local

communities to survive the transition. This is our dutyto generations to come, and to the rest of the

biosphere.

1 For the story of these warnings see The End oftheOil Age, Chapter 15, Imminent Peril, Part 1, bythis author; http://www.lulu.com/allenadale).The individual warnings can be found online:

Population Growth, Resource Management and aSustainable World. Joint Statement of the RoyalSociety of London and the US NationalAcademy of Sciences, 1992. Archived athttp://www.dieoff.comlpage7.htmWorld Scientists' Warning to Humanity. Union of .Concerned Scientists, 11/18/1992.

http://www.ucsusa.org/ucs/aboutipage.cfin?pagel 0=1009

Joint Statement by 58 ofthe World's ScientificAcademies. US National Academy of Sciences,10/27/1993.

http://www4.nas.eduiiap/iaphome.nsflweblinks/SAlN-4XVKHY?OpenDocumentJoint National Academy of Sciences and Royal

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Society Resolution: Towards SustainableConsumption. US National Academy of Sciences,1997.

http://www4.nas.edu/NAS/nashome.nsf/Multi+Database+Search/65F4E52642745F 1485256709006FBD9 I70penDocumentWorld Scientists' Call for Action. Union ofConcerned Scientists, December, 1997.http://www.ucsusa.org/ucs/aboutlpage.cfin ?pa!?-el0=1007Transition to Sustainability in the 21st Century:The Contribution of Science & Technology.InterAcademy Panel, May 2000.http://www4 .nas.eduliap/iaphome.nsf/webl inks/SAlN-4XVLCT?OpenDocument

2 An overview ofthese global assessment studies canbe found in The End of the Oil Age, Chapter 15,Imminent Peril, Part 1, by this author;(http://www.lulu.comlallenadale). The actualassessment studies can be accessed via these links:Guide to World Resources, 2000-2001: People &Ecosystems; The Fraying Web of Life. WorldResources Institute, April 2000.http://wri. igc.org/wri/wrr2000/Global Environmental Outlook-3. United Nations

Environment Programme, May 22 2002.http://www.grida.no/geo/ge03/State of the World 2003. Worldwatch Institute, June2003.

http://www .worldwatch.org/pubs/sow/2003/

3The story of industry-induced global climate changeis presented in my ongoing series Global ClimateChange and Peak Oil, which can be found athttp://www.fromthewilderness.com.The scientific case for industry-induced climatechange, and its impact, are discussed in full detail atClimate Change 2001, The IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change. Cambridge UniversityPress, 2001.http://www.grida.no/cI imate/ipcc tar/And a statement ofthe world's scientific academies

supporting this studycan be found at The Science of Climate Change.5/17/2001.

http://www.rovalsoc.ac. uk/fi les/statfiles/document­138.pdfSome web sites with information about ozone

depletion are:http://www .epa.gov/ozone/http://www.igc.org/envreview/blaustei.htm Ihttp://www.arn.org/cun-page/uvhealth.htmSites with additional information about globalclimate change are:http://www.climatehotmap.org/http://www.ucsusa.org/warmingJ

4 An excellent website for information on the currentmass extinction is:

http://www.well.comluser/davidulextinction.htm I

5 Human appropriation ofthe products ofphotosynthesis, Vitousek,

P.M. et al. Bioscience 36, 1986.http://www.science.duq.edulesmlun it2-3Land, Energy and Water: the constraintsgoverning Ideal VS Population Size,Pimental, David and Pimental, Marcia. Focus,Spring 1991. NPG Forum,1990. http://www.dieoff.com/pageI36.htm

6 For information about the effects of modern

agriculture, seeThe End of the Oil Age, Chapter 17, Eating FossilFuels, by this author;(http://www.lulu.com/allenadale). Or find in thearchives at www.fromthewilderness.com.

Food, Land, Population and the V.S. Economy,Executive Summary, Pimentel, David andGiampietro, Mario. Carrying Capacity Network,11/21/1994. http://www.dieoff.com/page40.htm

7 Collapse of Wild Fisheries, Western CanadaWilderness Committee. Co-published by WildernessCommittee and the Union ofB.C. Indian Chiefs, Vo!.21. No. 5; Fall, 2002.

http://www.wildemesscommittee.org/campaigns

Imarine/policy/fish_farms/

reports/fal12002lcollapseWhy Fisheries Collapse and What To Do AboutIt, Roughgarden,Jonathan, & Smith Fraser. Proceedings oftheNational Academy ofSciences, Vo!. 93, pp. 5078-5083; May, 1996.http://www .pnas.or~cgi/reprintl93/1 0/5078 .pdf

8 The Limits to Growth, Meadows, Dennis, et a!.Universe Books, 2nd Edition. Limits to Growth: the30 year global update, Meadows, Dennis, Randers,Jorgen, & Meadows, Donella. Chelsea GreenPublishing Company, June 2004. Influence ofCapital Inertia on Renewable Resource Depletion,Weisbuch, Gerard, et a!. Labratorie de PhysiqueStatistique de I'Ecole Normale Superieure; February,1997.

http://www.lps.ens.fr/~weisbuch/inertlp3/p3.html

9 http://www.pbs.org/tradesecrets/

10 The Oil Crash and You, Thomson, Bruce. Lookin the RunningOnEmpty2 Yahoo Group's filessection. Document name: !CONVINCE SHEETv 19.doc. 9/2/2001.

http://groups.yahoo.coml group/RunningOnEmpty2/files/

11Oil Crisis Powerpoint Presentation, Stasse,Mike. Look in the RunningOnEmpty2 yahoo group'sfiles section. Document name: oil crisis.ppt.2/14/2004.

http://groups.yahoo.com/ group/RunningOn Empty2/files/

12 Synopsis, edited by Hanson, Jay. March 8, 2001.http://www.dieoff.comlsvnopsis.htm

13npetroleumexperts Colin Campbell, JeanLaherrere, Brian Fleay, Roger Blanchard, RichardDuncan, Waiter Youngquist, and Albert Bartlett(using various methodologies) have all estimated a

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"peak" in "conventional oil" around 2005. Moreover,the CEOs of Agip, EN! SpA, (Italian oil companies)and Arco have all published estimates of peak in2005. So it seems like a reliable estimate." Synopsis,edited by Hanson, Jay. March 8, 2001.http://www.dieoffcom/synopsis.htmFor more information on the peak of global oilproduction, see The End ofthe Oil Age, by thisauthor. Lulu Press, April, 2004.http://www.lulu.com/allenadale. Or The Party'sOver: Oil, War, and the Fate ofIndustrialSocieties, Heinberg, Richard. New SocietyPublishers, 2003. The Energy InformationAdministration and the US Geological Surveyestimate peak world oil production around 2025 to2030. But their methodologies have been highlycriticized, and members of both agencies haveprivately expressed doubts concerning theseestimates.

14 Ethanol from Corn: clean renewable fuel forthe future, or drain on our resources andpockets?, Patzek, Tad W. Dept. of Civil andEnvironmental Engineering, University of California,June 14,2003.http://www.ce.berkeley.edu/Courses/EII/PatzekEthanolPaper.pdfEthanol from Corn: just how unsustainable is it?,Patzek, Tad W. Seminar at Stanford University.http://pangea.stanford.edulESY S/Energy'>1o20seminars/patzek ethanol.pdf

15 The Party's Over: Oil, War, and the Fate ofIndustrial Societies, Heinberg, Richard. NewSociety Publishers, 2003; pp. 139-146.

16 For a critical look at some of the problemsassociated with hydrogen fuel cell technology, seeThe End of the Oil Age, Chapter 8, Much Adoabout Nothing, by this author. Lulu Press, April,2004. http://www.lulu.com/allenadaleOr see The Party's Over: Oil, War, and the Fateof Industrial Societies, Heinberg, Richard. NewSociety Publishers, 2003; pp. 146-149.

17 The Party's Over: Oil, War, and the Fate ofIndustrial Societies, Heinberg, Richard. NewSociety Publishers, 2003; pp. 129-132. Beyond Oil,Gever, John, et a1.Univ. Pr. Colorado, 1991. pp. 65­68.

18 The Party's Over: Oil, War, and the Fate ofIndustrial Societies, Heinberg, Richard. NewSociety Publishers, 2003; pp. 132-139.

19 The Tightening Conflict: Population, EnergyUse, and the Ecology of Agriculture, Giampietro,Mario and Pimentel, David, 1994.http://www.dieoff.com/page69.htm

20 The End of the Oil Age, Chapter 17, EatingFossil Fuels, Pfeiffer, Dale AlIen. Lulu Press, April,2004. http://www.1uIu.com/allenadale

21 Executive Excess 2002, Anderson, Sarah, et a1.Institute for Policy Studies & United for a FairEconomy, August 26th, 2003.http://www.ufenet.org/press/2003/EE2003.pdf

22 State of Working America 2002-2003:Executive Summary and Introduction. EconomicPolicy Institute.http://www.epinet.org/press/em bargoed/swa2002. pdf

23 Ibid.

24 The Prison Industry.http://www.cofPwatch.org/issues/PII.isp?topicid=119

25 Toward an American Revolution: Exposing theConstitution and other llIusions, Fresia, Jerry.South End Press, 1988.A People's History oftheUnited States: 1492 to present, Zinn Howard.Perennial, 2003 (latest edition).

26 The Permian Era ended approximately 250 millionYears Ago, in an extinction event which killed off95% of all marine life on the planet, and 70% of allland families. It was much worse than the end of the

dinosaurs, which ranks a distant second on the list ofextinction events (the current extinction event ranksthird). It is now most widely accepted that thePermian Extinction began with volcanic outgassingleading to global warming, which in turn sparked offmassive methane venting from permafrost and fromthe ocean floor, resulting in runaway global warming.The implications for modem global warming arefrightening. For more on the Permian Extinction, agood starting place is:http://palaeo. !?:ly.bris.ac.uklPalaeofiles/Permian/intro

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A Career In Microbiology Can Be Harmful To YourHealth

DEATH TOLL MOUNTING AS CONNECTIONS TO

DYNCORP, HADRON, PROMIS SOFTWARE ANDDISEASE RESEARCH EMERGE

by

Michael Davidson, FTW staff writer

and Michael C. Ruppert

[Copyright 2002, From The Wilderness Publications,

http://www.fromthewirlderness.com/. All rights reserved.

May be recopied, distributed for non-profit purposes only.

[EO. NOTE: As FTW has begun to investigate serious

discussions by legitimate scientists and academics on the

possible necessity of reducing the world's population by

more than four billion people, no stranger set of

circumstances since Sept. 11 adds credibility to this

possibility than the suspicious deaths of what may be as

many as 14 world-class microbiologists. Following on the

heels of our two-part series on the coming world oil crisis,

this story by Michael Davidson, a graduate of the Syracuse

University School of Journalism, is one, which takes on a

unique significance. The newest connections to DynCorp,Hadron and PROMIS software are leads an amateur would

not miss. How else would any microbiologists threatening

an ultra secret government biological weapons program be

identified than by secretly scanning their databases to see

what they were working on? - MCR]

FTW -- Feb. 28, 2002 - In the four-month period from Nov.

12 through Feb. 11, seven world-class microbiologists in

different parts of the world were reported dead. Six died of

"unnatural" causes, while the cause of the seventh's death

is questionable. Also on Nov. 12, DynCorp, a major

government contractor for data processing, military

operations and intelligence work, was awarded a $322

million contract to develop, produce and store vaccines for

the Department of Defense. DynCorp and Hadron, bothdefense contractors connected to classified research

programs on communicable diseases, have also been

linked to a software program known as PROM IS, which

may have helped identify and target the victims.

In the six weeks prior to Nov. 12, two additional foreign

microbiologists were reported dead. Some believe there

were as many as five more microbiologists killed during the

period, bringing the total as high as 14. These two to seven

additional deaths, however, are not the focus of this story.

This same period also saw the deaths of three persons

involved in medical research or public health.

- On Nov. 12, Benito Que, 52, was found comatose in the

street near the laboratory where he worked at the

University of Miami Medical School. He died on Dec. 6.

- On Nov. 16, Don C. WHey, 57, vanished, and hisabandoned rental car was found on the Hernando de Soto

Bridge outside Memphis, Tenn. His body was found onDec. 20.

- On Nov. 23, Vladimir Pasechnik, 64, was found dead in

Wiltshire, England, not far from his home.

- On Dec. 10, Robert Schwartz, 57, was found murdered in

his rural home in Loudoun County, Va.

- On Dec, 11, Set Van Nguyen, 44, was found dead in the

airlock entrance to a walk-in refrigerator in the laboratorywhere he worked in Victoria State, Australia.

- On Feb. 8, Vladimir Korshunov, 56, was found dead on a

Moscow street.

- And on Feb. 11, lan Langford, 40, was found dead in his

home in Norwich, England.

OOPS!

Prior to these deaths, on Oct. 4, a commercial jetliner

traveling from Israel to Novosibirsk, Siberia was shot down

over the Black Sea by an "errant" Ukrainian surface-to-air

missile, killing all on board. The missile was over 100 miles

off-course. Despite early news stories reporting it as a

charter, the flight, Air Sibir 1812, was a regularly scheduled

flight.

According to several press reports, including a Dec. 5

article by Barry Chamish and one on Jan. 13 by Jim Rarey

(both available at http://wwwJense.comQ, the plane is

believed by many in Israel to have had as many as five

passengers who were microbiologists. Both Israel and

Novosibirsk are homes for cutting-edge microbiological

research. Novosibirsk is known as the scientific capital of

Siberia, and home to over 50 research facilities and 13 full

universities for a population of only 2.5 million people.

At the time of the Black Sea crash, Israeli journalists had

been sounding the alarm that two Israeli microbiologists

had been recently murdered, allegedly by terrorists. On

Nov. 24 a Crossair flight from Berlin to Zurich crashed on its

landing approach. Of the 33 persons on board, 24 were

killed, including the head of the hematology department at

Israel's Ichilov Hospital, as well as directors of the Tel Aviv

Public Health Department and Hebrew University School of

Medicine. They were the only Israelis on the flight. The

names of those killed, as reported in a subsequent Israeli

news story but not matched to their job titles, were Avishai

Berkman, Amiramp Eldor and Yaacov Matzner.

Besides all being microbiologists, six of the seven scientistswho died within weeks of each other died from "unnatural"

causes. And four of the seven were doing virtually identical

research -- research that has global, political and financial

significance.

QUE PASA?

The public relations office at the University of Miami

Medical School said only that Benito Que was a cell

biologist, involved in oncology research in the hematology

department. This research relies heavily on DNA

sequencing studies. The circumstances of his death raise

more questions than they answer.

Que had left his job at a research laboratory at the

University of Miami Medical School, apparently heading for

his Ford Explorer parked on NW 10th Avenue. The Miami

Herald, referring to the death as an "incident," reported he

had no wallet on him, and quoted Miami police as saying

his death may have been the result of a mugging. Police

made this statement while at the same time saying there

was a lack of visible trauma to Que's body. There is firm

belief among Que's friends and family that the PhD was

attacked by four men, at least one of whom had a baseball

bat. Que's death has now been officially ruled "natural,"

/1/£

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caused by cardiac arrest. Both the Dade County medicalexaminer and the Miami Police would not comment on the

case, saying only that it is closed.

A MEMPHIS MYSTERY

Don C. Wiley of the Howard Hughes Medical Institute at

Harvard University, was one of the most prominent

microbiologists in the world. He had won many of the field's

most prestigious awards, including the 1995 Albert LaskerBasic Medical Research Award for work that could make

anti-viral vaccines a reality. He was heavily involved in

research on DNA sequencing. Wiley was last seen around

midnight on Nov. 15, leaving the St. Jude's Children's

Research Advisory dinner held at the Peabody Hotel in

Memphis, Tenn. Associates attending the dinner said he

showed no signs of intoxication, and no one has admitted

to drinking with him.

His rented Mitsubishi Galant was found about four hours

later, abandoned on a bridge across the Mississippi River,

headed towards Arkansas. Keys were in the ignition, the

gas tank full, and the hazard flashers had not been tumed

on. Wiley's body was found on Dec. 20, snagged on a tree

along the Mississippi River in Vidalia, La., 300 miles south

of Memphis. Until his body was found, Dr. WHey's death

was handled as a missing person case, and police did noforensic examinations.

Early reports about Wiley's disappearance made no

mention of paint marks on his car or a missing hubcap,

which tumed up in subsequent reports. The type of

accident needed to knock off the hubcaps (actually a

complete wheel cover) used on recent model Galants

would have caused noticeable damage to the sheet metal

on either side of the wheel, and probably the wheel itself.

No damage to the car s body or wheel has been reported.

Wiley's car was found about a five-minute drive from the

hotel where he was last seen. There is a four-hour period in

his evening that cannot be accounted for. There is also no

explanation as to why he would have been headed into

Arkansas late at night. Wiley was staying at his father's

home in Memphis.

The Hemando de Soto Bridge carries Interstate 40 out of

Memphis, across the Mississippi River into Arkansas. The

traffic on the bridge was reduced to a single lane in eachdirection. This would have caused westbound traffic out of

Memphis to slow down and travel in one lane. Anything in

the other two closed lanes would have been plainly obvious

to every passing person. There are no known witnesses to

Wiley stopping his car on the bridge.

On Jan. 14, almost two months after his disappearance,

Shelby County Medical Examiner O.C. Smith announced

that his department had ruled WHey s death to be

"accidental;" the result of massive injuries suffered in a fall

from the Hemando de Soto Bridge. Smith said there were

paint marks on WHey's rental car similar to the paint used

on construction signs on the bridge, and that the car's right

front hubcap was missing. There has been no report as to

which construction signs WHey hit. There is also no

explanation as to why this evidence did not move the

Memphis police to consider possibilities other than a

"missing person."

Smith theorizes that Wiley pulled over to the outermost lane

of the bridge (that lane being closed at the time) to inspect

the damage to his car. Smith's subsequent explanation for

the fall requires several other things to have occurred

simultaneously: - Wiley had to have had one of the two or

three seizures he has per year due to a rare disorder

known only to family and close friends, that seizure being

brought on by use of alcohol earlier that evening; - passing

truck creating a huge blast of wind and/or roadway bounce

due to heavy traffic; and, - WHey had to be standing on the

curb next to the guardrail which, because of WHey's 6-foot­

3-inch height, would have come only to his mid-thigh.

These conditions would have put WHey's center of gravity

above the rail, and the seizure would have caused him tolose his balance as the truck created the bounce and blast

of wind, thus causing him to fall off the bridge.

SCIENCE IS MIGHTIER THAN THE SWORD?

Robert M. Schwartz was a founding member of the Virginia

Biotechnology Association, and the Executive Director of

Research and Development at Virginia's Center for

Innovative Technology. He was extremely well respected in

biophysics, and regarded as an authority on DNA

sequencing.

Co-workers became concemed when he didn't show up athis office on Dec. 10. He was later found dead at his home.

Loudoun County Sheriffs officials said Schwartz wasstabbed on Dec. 8 with a sword, and had an "X" cut into the

back of his neck. Schwartz's daughter Clara, 19, and three

others have been charged in the case.

BREATHE DEEPLY, AND CARRY A BIG STICK

Set Van Nguyen was found dead on Dec. 11 at theCommonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research

Organization's animal diseases facility in Geelong,

Australia. He had worked there 15 years. According to an

article on http://www.rense.com/by lan Gumey, in Jan.

2001 the magazine Nature published information that two

scientists at this facility, using genetic manipulation and

DNA sequencing, had created an incredibly virulent form of

mousepox, a cousin of smallpox. The researchers were

extremely concemed that if similar manipulation could be

done to smallpox, a terrifying weapon could be unleashed.

According to Victoria Police, Nguyen died after entering a

refrigerated storage facility. "He did not know the room was

full of deadly gas which had leaked from a liquid nitrogen

cooling system. Unable to breathe, Mr. Nguyen collapsed

and died," is the official report.

Nitrogen is not a "deadly" gas, and is a part of air. An

extreme over-abundance of nitrogen in one's immediate

atmosphere would cause shortness of breath,

lightheadedness, and fatigue - conditions a biologist would

certainly recognize. Additionally, a leak sufficient to fill the

room with nitrogen would set off alerts, and would be so

massive as to cause a complete loss of cooling, causing

the temperature to rise, which would also set off alerts

these systems are routinely equipped with.

A RUSSIAN, BRITISH INTELLIGENCE AND OLDCORPSES

In 1989, Vladimir Pasechnik defected from the Former

Soviet Union (FSU) to Great Britain while on a trip to Paris.

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He had been the top scientist in the FSU's bioweapons

program, which is heavily dependent upon DNA

sequencing. Pasechnik's death was reported in the New

York Times as having occurred on Nov. 23.

The Times obituary indicated that the announcement of

Pasechnik's death was made in the United States by Or.

Christopher Davis of Virginia, who stated that the cause ofdeath was a stroke. Davis was the member of British

intelligence who de-briefed Or. Pasechnik at the time of his

defection. Davis says he left the intelligence service in

1996, but when asked why a former member of British

intelligence would be the person announcing the death of

Pasechnik to the US media, he replied that it had come

about during a conversation with a reporter he had had a

long relationship with. The reporter Davis named is not the

author of the Times' obituary, and Davis declined to say

which branch of British intelligence he served in. No reports

of Pasechnik's death appeared in Britain for more than a

month, until Dec. 29, when his obituary appeared in the

London Telegraph, which did not include a date of death.

Pasechnik spent the 10 years after his defection working at

the Centre for Applied Microbiology and Research at the

UK Department of Health, Salisbury. On Feb. 20, 2000, it

was announced that, along with partner Caisey Harlingten,

Pasechnik had formed a company called Regma

Biotechnologies Ltd. Regma describes itself as "a new drug

company working to provide powerful altematives to

antibiotics." Like three other microbiologists detailed in this

article, Pasechnik was heavily involved in DNA sequencing

research. During the anthrax panic of this past fall,

Pasechnik offered his services to the British govemment to

help in any way possible. Despite Regma having a public

relations department that has released many items to the

press over the past two years, the company has notannounced the death of one of its two founders.

FEBRUARY,BLOODYFEBRUARY

On Feb. 9 the news publication Pravdaru reported that

Victor Korshunov had been killed. At the time, Korshunov

was head of the microbiology sub-facility at the Russian

State Medical University. He was found dead in the

entrance to his home with a cranial injury. Pravda reports

that Korshunov had probably invented either a vaccine to

protect against biological weapons, or a weapon itself.

On Feb. 12 a newspaper in Norwich, England reported the

previous day's death of lan Langford, a senior researcher

at the University of East Anglia. The story went on to say

that police "were not treating the death as suspicious." The

next day, Britain's The Times reported that Langford was

found wedged under a chair "at his blood-spattered and

apparently ransacked home."

The February 12 story, from the Eastern Daily Press,

reports that clerks at a store near Langford's home claim he

came in on a daily basis to buy "a big bottle of vodka" Two

of the store's staff also claim Langford had come into the

store a few days earlier wearing "just a jumper and a pair of

shoes." None of the store's staff would give their name.

It is hard to understand how a man can reach the highest

levels of achievement in a scientific field while drinking "a

big bottle of vodka" on a daily basis, and strolling around

his hometown nearly nude. A Feb. 14 follow-up story from

the Eastern Daily Press says police believe Langford died

after suffering "one or more falls." They say this would

account for his head injuries and large amount of bloodfound at the death scene.

THE HOWARD HUGHES MEDICAL INSTITUTE -­ANOTHER LINK?

There is another intriguing connection between three of the

five American scientists that have died. WHey, Schwartz,

and Benito Que worked for medical research facilities that

received grants from Howard Hughes Medical Institute

(HHMI). HHMI funds a tremendous number of research

programs at schools, hospitals and research facilities, and

has long been alleged to be conducting "black ops"

biomedical research for intelligence organizations, includingthe CIA.

Long-time biowarfare investigator Patricia Doyle, PhD.

reports that there is a history of people connected to HHMI

being murdered. In 1994, Jose Trias met with a friend in

Houston, Texas and was planning to go public with his

personal knowledge of HHMI "front door" grants being

diverted to "back door" black ops bioresearch. The next

day, Trias and his wife were found dead in their Chevy

Chase, Md. home. Chevy Chase is where HHMI is

headquartered. Police described the killings as a

professional hit. Tsunao Saitoh, who formerly worked at an

HHMI-funded lab at Columbia University, was shot to death

on May 7, 1996 while sitting in his car outside his home in

La Jolla, Calif. Police also described this as a professionalhit.

BEYOND THE BIZARRE

Early-October saw reports that British scientists were

planning to exhume the bodies of 10 London victims of the

1918 type-A flu epidemic known as the Spanish Flu. An

October 7 report In The Independent, UK said that victims

of the Spanish Flu had been victims of "the world's most

deadly virus." British scientists, according to the story, hope

to uncover the genetic makeup of the virus, making it easierto combat.

Professor John Oxford of London's Queen Mary's School

of Medicine, the British govemmenfs flu adviser,

acknowledges that the exhumations and subsequentstudies will have to be done with extreme caution so the

virus is not unleashed to cause another epidemic. The

uncovering of a pathogen's genetic structure is the exact

work Pasechnik was doing at Regma Pasechnik died six

weeks after the planned exhumations were announced.

The need to exhume the bodies assumes no Type-A flu

virus sample exists in any lab anywhere in the world.

A piece on MSNBC that aired September 6 makes the

British exhumation plans seem odd. The story refers to an

article that was to be published the following day in the

weekly magazine Science, reporting the 1918 flu virus had

recently been RNA sequenced. Researchers had traced

down and obtained virus samples from archived lung tissue

of WWI soldiers, and from an Inuit woman who had been

buried in the Alaskan permafrost.

HELP WANTED, SPIES, AND A LINK TO PROMIS

Almost immediately at the outset of the anthrax scare, the

Bush administration contracted with Bayer Pharmaceuticals

for millions of doses of Cipro, an antibiotic to treat anthrax.

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This was done despite many in the medical community

stating that there were several cheaper, better altematives

to Cipro, which has never been shown to be effective

against inhaled anthrax. The Center for Disease Control's

(COG) own website states a preference for the antibiotic

doxycycline over Cipro for inhalation anthrax. CDC

expresses concerns that widespread Cipro use couldcause other bacteria to become immune to antibiotics.

It was announced Jan. 21 that the director of the CDC,

Jeffrey Koplan, is resigning effective March 31. Six daysearlier it was announced that Surgeon General David

Satcher is also resigning. And there is currently no director

for the National Institutes of Health - NIH is being run by an

acting director. The recent resignations leave the three

most significant medical positions in the federal

government simultaneously vacant.

After three months of conflicting reports it is now official thatthe anthrax that has killed several Americans since October

5 is from US military sources connected to CIA research.

The FBI has stated that only 10 people could have had

access, yet at the same time they are reporting astounding

security breaches at the biowarfare facility at Fort Detrick,Md. -- breaches such as unauthorized nighttime

experiments and lab specimens gone missing.

The militarized anthrax used by the US was developed by

William C. Patrick Ill, who holds five classified patents on

the process. He has worked at both Fort Detrick, and the

Dugway Proving Grounds in Utah. Patrick is now a private

bio-warfare consultant to the military and CIA. Patrick

developed the process by which anthrax spores could beconcentrated at the level of one trillion spores per gram. No

other country has been able to get concentrations above

500 billion per gram. The anthrax that was sent around the

eastem US last fall was concentrated at one trillion spores

per gram, according to a Jan. 31 report by Barbara Hatch

Rosenberg of the Federation of American Scientists.

In recent years Patrick has worked with Kanaijan Alibekov.

Now known by the Americanized "Ken Alibek", he defected

to the US in 1992. Currently, Ken Alibek is President of

Hadron Advanced Biosystems, a subsidiary of Alexandria,

Va.-based Hadron, Inc. Hadron describes itself as a

company specializing in the development of technical

solutions for the intelligence community. As chief scientist

at Hadron, Alibek gave extensive testimony to the House

Armed Services Committee about biological weapons on

Oct. 20, 1999, and again on May 23, 2000. Hadron

announced on Dec. 20 that as of that date, the company

had received $12 million in funding for medical biodefense

research from the Defense Advanced Research Projects

Agency, the US Army Medical Research and Materiel

Command, and the NIH. Hadron said it was working in the

field of non-specific immunity.

In the 1980s Hadron was founded and headed by Or. Earl

Brian, a medical doctor and crony of Ronald Reagan and

an associate of former Attorney General Edwin Meese.

Brian was convicted in the 1980s on fraud charges. Both

Hadron and Brian have been closely associated in court

documents and numerous credible reports, confirmed since

Sept. 11, with the theft of enhanced PROM IS software from

its owner, the INSLAW Corporation. PROMIS is a highly

sophisticated computer program capable of integrating a

wide variety of databases. The software has reportedly

been mated in recent years with artificial intelligence.

PROMIS has long been known to have been modified by

intelligence agencies with a back door that allows for

surreptitious retrieval of stored data. [For more informationon what PROMIS can do and its history, please use the

search engine at http://www.fromthewilderness.com/ .• or

further below a brief description of PROMIS is given.]

Given this unique capability, and Hadron's prior

connections to PROM IS, it is a possibility that the software,

by tapping into databases used by each of the victims,

could have identified any lines of research that threatened

to compromise a larger, and as yet unidentified, more

sinister covert operation.

A PATTERN?

The DNA sequencing work by several of the

microbiologists discussed earlier is aimed at developing

drugs that will fight pathogens based on the pathogen's

genetic profile. The work is also aimed at eventually

developing drugs that will work in cooperation with a

person's genetic makeup. Theoretically, a drug could be

developed for one specific person. That being the case, it's

obvious that one could go down the ladder, and a drug

could be developed to effectively treat a much broader

class of people sharing a genetic marker. The entire

process can also be tumed around to develop a pathogen

that will affect a broad class of people sharing a genetic

marker. A broad class of people sharing a genetic marker

could be a group such as a race, or people with brown

eyes.

Suspicious Death of David Kelly

On Thursday, July 17ft! 2003, sometime between 3 and

3:30pm, Or. David Kelly started out on his usual afternoonwalk. About 18 hours later, searchers found his body, left

wrist slit, in a secluded lane on Harrowdown Hill. Kelly, the

U.K.'s premier microbiologist, was in the center of a political

maelstrom having been identified as the "leak" ininformation about the "dossier" Prime Minister Tony Blair

had used to justify the war against Iraq.

In 1984 Or. Kelly was invited by the Ministry of Defense

(MoD) to take the position of chief microbiologist at its

secret facility at Porton Down. Kelly had been working in

the NERC Institute of Virology in Oxford. He brought anumber of scientists with him from there to Porton Down.

At the Hutton inquiry, Brian Jones testified as to Kelly's

involvement, with the highest security clearance, in

analyzing top-secret information regarding biological

weapons of the U.K. and other governments. Jones was

director of a department on the Defence Intelligence Staff

(DIS). That involvement, beginning in 1987, presumably

continued until his death and through his several other jobs

as weapons "inspector" in Russia and (for UNSCOM) in

Iraq.

It was before and during Kelly's tenure at Porton Down that

it became involved with South Africa's bioweapon program

named Project Coast, headed by cardiologist, Wouter

Basson. Basson was said to have had entree not only to

Porton Down but the U.S. Army facility at Fort Detrick,

Maryland (the U.S. counterpart of Porton Down). The two

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main thrusts of Project Coast were developing genetically

altered diseases that would affect only groups with similar

DNA characteristics, e.g. blacks, and weapons to be used

in assassination of individuals. Two (as yet unidentified)

scientists working at Porton Down were also paid

consultants to Basson's projects. The CIA in the U.S.

contributed to Basson's efforts through Dr. Larry Ford. Ford

was set up as co-president of a laboratory supposedly

developing a feminine birth control device that would also

protect against AIDS. The company never had a product or

any sales. According to an undercover FBI informant, Ford

did develop an "anti-black" product he delivered to an

attache of the South African govemment in Califomia.

In 1991, a team of U.S. and U.K scientists, including Kelly

and Davis, made a trip to the USSR to inspect Biopreparat

facilities at four locations. Their host was deputy chief of the

program, Kanaijan Alibekov, who would later "defecf' to the

U.S. and change his name to Ken Alibek. Kelly made

several inspection trips to Russia.

KEN ALfBEK got a medical degree at the military

medical institute at Tomsk. In 1982, at the age of 31, he

became the acting director of the Omutninsk

bioweapons-production plant, a major facility in the

Kirov region of Russia. Before defecting, he ended up

working in Biopreparat headquarters, a large building inMoscow. His boss was Vladimir Pasechnik.

He explains: Genetic engineering, in military terms, is the

creation of genetically altered viruses and bacteria in order

to enhance their power as weapons. This work can be

done by altering an organisms DNA, which is the ribbonlike

molecule that contains the organism's genetic code and is

found in every cell and in every virus particle.

"Russia has researched the genetic alteration of smallpox, "

Alibek told Richard Preston, author of The Hot Zone. "In

1990 and 1991, we engineered a smallpox at Vector. It was

found that several areas of the smallpox genome" - the

DNA - "can be used for the introduction of some foreign

genetic material. The first development was smallpox and

VEE. VEE, or Venezuelan equine encephalitis, is a brain

virus. It causes a severe headache and near-{;oma, but it is

generally not lethal. Alibek said that the researchers spliced

VEE into smallpox. The result was a recombinant chimera

virus. In ancient Greek myth, the chimera was a monster

made from parts of different animals. Recombination

means the mixing of genes from different organisms. "It iscalled smallpox-VEE chimera," Alibek said. It could also be

called Veepox. Under a microscope, Alibek said, the

Veepox looks like smallpox, but it isnY. According to A1ibek,

the Vector researchers found more than one place in the

smallpox DNA where you could insert new genes without

decreasing smallpox's ability to cause disease. More

recently, the Vector researchers may have created arecombinant Ebola-smallpox chimera. Ebola virus uses the

molecule RNA for its genetic code, whereas smallpox usesDNA. Alibek believes that the Russian researchers made a

DNA copy of the disease-{;8using parts of Ebola, then

grafted them into smallpox.

A possible motive for the death of Dr. Kelly?

For several months, Kelly had been communicating with

Victoria Roddam, a commissioning editor for Oneworld

Publications based in Oxford. One week before Kelly's

death, she had sent him an e-mail that said in part, "I think'

the time is ripe now more than ever for a titie which

addresses the relationship between government, policy and

war-I'm sure you would agree." They had been discussing

Kelly authoring a book to be published by Victoria's

company.

Another document found among Kelly's effects at his homewas an undated hand-written note from Roddam with a list

of suggested topics to be included in the book. One such

topic was the ethics of biological warfare, a sticking point

that could be responsible for a string of deaths of world­

dass micro biologists in various countries. A second one

was the involvement of corporations in biological warfare. A

third was the role of the pharmaceutical and biotech

industries in bio-warfare as well as prevention andcontainment. Yet another was the connection between

Russia and Iraq with WMD, and a look at the proliferation inthe arms trade. It would have been in character for him to

discuss the project with Judith Miller and perhaps seek her

advice as she had authored several books on topic. At any

rate, now David Kelly has joined the growing list of world­

class microbiologists who have met mysterious deathsandlor been murdered.

PROMIS & PTECH:

PROMIS software and its evolutions were the lynch pin of

every new military, scientific and financial advance being

pursued by the US government and corporate sector.

PROMIS progeny have become the "operating system"

underlying data management and data mining for every

major technology under development in all arenas of

technological advance from medicine, to finance, to

surveillance, to battlefield Command, Control and

Communications or C3. By definition, PROMIS progeny are

the backbone of a current DoD plan to develop a "Godlike"

view of all human (or battlefield) activity from space. They

are also inherently a part of the data processing being

envisioned for advanced space weapons requiring

machines to think as they share data in virtual real time.

MIT in a recent scientific publication titled "Space

Weapons: Crossinq the US Rubicon" described a number

of capabilities to which FTW referred in our October 2000

story on PROMIS, including a statement that space is "the

ultimate high ground."

As time passes it is beginning to appear that PROMIS is

literally what made possible not only 9/11, but everything

that has followed since and what is being planned. TIA hasbeen renamed several times. We know that the first

software was delivered to the Defense Advanced Research

Projects Agency (DARPA) in 2003. Its latest nom de guerre

is TIE or Trusted Information Environment. According to theSan Francisco Chronicle last October TIE now allows the

government to access private databases without a warrant.

FTW go one step further to assert that TIE allows access to

private databases without the knowledge of the database

owners, provided only one condition exists: the database

can be accessed through the internet.

In this electrifying timeline-driven report, Wall Street

whistleblower Indira Singh lays out the connections

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between the providers of this advanced software (derivedfrom the PROMIS software stolen from the Inslaw

corporation in the 1980s by the US Justice Department and

others) and the network of terrorist financing (sustained

with US blessing) that has pervaded U.S covert operations

for years.

WHAT IS PROMIS AND WHAT DOESIT DO?

PROMIS stands for Prosecutor's Management Information

System.

In the late 1970s the legal system of the United States

Department of Justice (DoJ) was comprised of more than

thirty semi-autonomous regional U.S. Attorneys (USA)

offices. Each had a computer system to track case

management for prosecutions, investigations, and civil

litigations. The problem was that they used as many as

seven different programming languages. This made the

transmission and sharing of information between offices

virtually impossible. The computers in the USA's office inSan Francisco could not read files sent from the USA in

New York.

The genius of Hamilton and Inslaw was to create a

software program that could access files in any number of

databases and programming languages and translate and

then unify them into one consistent file. Prom is was the

Rosetta stone of computer languages.

Inslaw won a $10 million, three-year contract in March 1982to install a 16-bit architecture version of Prom is, which the

government had the right to use but not the right to modify

without paying license fees to Inslaw, on government

computers in the 22 largest U.S. Attorneys' Offices. In April

1983, the second year of the three-year contract, the

government modified Inslaw's contract in order to

obtain delivery of a 32-bit architecture version of Promis,

which the government could not even use without paying

license fees. In modifying the contract, the government

promised to pay license fees if it decided to substitute the32-bit version for the 16-bit version. In May 1983, the

month following Inslaw's delivery of the 32-bit version of

Promis, the government reneged on its contractual

agreement to pay license fees and simultaneously began tofind fault with Inslaw's implementation services as

justification for withholding services payments.

In January 1988, following several weeks of trial in 1987,

the U.S. Bankruptcy Court issued fully litigated findings of

fact that the Justice Department "took, converted, stole" the

32-bit version of Promis "through trickery, fraud and deceit,"

implemented the 32-bit version of Prom is in the 44 largest

U.S. Attorneys Offices, and then tried to force INSLAW out

of business in order to incapacitate INSLAW from litigating

the Justice Department's theft of Prom is. The Bankruptcy

Court imposed a compulsory license on the 44 largest U.S.

Attorneys Offices for the perpetual use of the 32-bit version

of Promis and issued a permanent injunction against any

further dissemination of Prom is by the government exceptunder license from Inslaw.

Subsequent appeals by the government saw the original

rulings overturned on legal, not factual, grounds. Legal

actions in the case continue to this day.

Hamilton told FTW that none of the uses described above

had anything to do with any licensing agreements for thesoftware's use to track terrorists, intelligence matters or

worldwide financial transactions.

The paper tracking of the refinements in Prom is after the

legal dispute erupted between INSLAW and the Reaganadministration, verifies that at least one version of Promis

was given to Martin Marietta, now Lockheed-Martin, whichis now the nation's second largest defense contractor.

Research conducted by many investigative journalists has

indicated that Prom is has spread widely throughout the

defense contractor network. FTW has received multiple

reports of Prom is use by companies and institutions like

DynCorp, Raytheon, Boeing, SAIC and the Harvard

Endowment as well as by government agencies such as

the Financial Criminal Enforcement Network (FINCEN) and

the U.S. Treasury.

Here's how powerful the software is.

Approximately two weeks after the September 11 attackson the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, the History

Channel aired a documentary entitled "The History of

Terrorism." In that documentary, a law enforcement officerdescribed some of the methods used to track terrorist

movements. He stated that "computers" were able to track

such things as credit card purchases, entry and exits visas,

telephone and utility usage etc. It was implied that these

diverse data base files could be integrated into one unified

table. He gave an example that through the use of such a

system it would be possible to determine that if a suspected

terrorist entered the country and was going to hide out, that

by monitoring the water and electrical consumption of all

possible suspects in a given cell, it would be possible to

determine where the terrorist was hiding out by seeing

whose utility use increased. Conversely, it would be

possible to determine if a terrorist was on the move if his

utility consumption declined or his local shopping patterns

were interrupted. Aren't those "club" cards from your

supermarket handy?

This is but the barest glimpse of what Promis can do.

Mated with artificial intelligence it is capable of analyzing

not only an individual's, but also a community's entire life, in

real time. It is also capable of issuing warnings when

irregularities appear and of predicting future movements

based upon past behavior.

In the financial arena Prom is is even more formidable. Not

only is it capable of predicting movements in financial

markets and tracking trades in real time. It has been

reported, on a number of occasions, to have been used, viathe "back door" to enter secret bank accounts, including

accounts in Switzerland and then remove the money in

those accounts without being traced. Court documents filedin the various INSLAW trials include documentation of this

ability as well as affidavits and declarations from Israeli

intelligence officers and assets.

FTW has previously reported that the CIA uses Promis totrack stock trades in real time. Thus, as described in FTW

stories on insider trading directly connected to the

September 11 attacks, the Agency had the ability to

determine that immediate impending attacks were planned

against both American and United Air Lines. The Israeli

Herzliyya Institute for Counter terrorism was able to publish

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a detailed accounting of the trades within days of the

attacks and their report underscores the connection

between counter terrorist efforts and the monitoring of

financial markets. [See FTW Vol. IV, No 7 - Oct. 15,2001]

Suspicions of CIA advance knowledge of the attacks were

heightened when FTW disclosed that the current Executive

Director of the CIA, AB. "Buzzy" Krongard was, unti/1998,

the CEO of AB. Brown, the company which handled many

of the suspicious trades.

The FOX story reported that Osama bin Laden once

boasted that his youth "knew the wrinkles of the world'sfinancial markets like the back of their hands and that his

money would never be frozen." He may be right. And an

administration so lost in covering up criminal conduct - no

less than the conduct of the ones which preceded it - while

trying to fight a war at the same time -- might find itself

doubly wounded by the software of Bill Hamilton andInslaw.

PROMIS & ETHNO-SPECIFIC BIO-WARFARE

WEAPONS: The Last Circle describes in detail how

Promis software was modified by Riconosciuto to allegedly

include the back door "eavesdropping" capability but also

enhanced with one form of AI and subsequently applied to

the development of new weapons systems including

"ethnospecific" biowarfare compounds capable of attacking

specific races.

PROMIS & MICROSOFTIWINDOWS SYSTEMS: In the

winter of 94-95, Inslaw's investigator into Promis, a former

green beret named McCoy, reveled to FTW, that he was

using former Green Berets to conduct physical surveillance

of the Washington, D.C. offices of Microsoft in connection

with the Prom is case. Subsequent thereto FTW received

information indicating that piracy of Microsoft products at

the GE Aerospace Herndon facility were likely tied to larger

objectives, possibly the total compromise of any Windows

based product. It is not by chance that most of the military

and all of the intelligence agencies in the U.S. now operate

on Macintosh systems.

PROM IS & FINANCIAL MARKETS: The Tyree diagrams

laid out in detail how Promis, after improvement with AI,

had allegedly been mated with the software of Jackson

Stephens' firm Systematics. In the late seventies and early

eighties, Systematics handled some 60-70% of all

electronic banking transactions in the U.S. The goal,

according to the diagrams which laid out (subsequently

verified) relationships between Stephens, Worthen Bank,

the Lippo Group and the drugfrntelligence bank BCCI was

to penetrate every banking system in the world. This

"cabal" could then use Promis both to predict and toinfluence the movement of financial markets worldwide.

Tyree informed FTW that just before McCoy's death, he

had given McCoy information on "Elbif' flash memory

chips, allegedly designed at Kir Yat-Gat south of Tel Aviv.

The unique feature of the Elbit chips was that they worked

on ambient electricity in a computer. In other words, they

worked when the computer was turned off. When

combined with another newly developed chip, the "Petrie,"

which was capable of storing up to six months worth of key

strokes, it was now possible to burst transmit all of a

computer's activity in the middle of the night to a nearby

receiver - say in a passing truck or even a low flying

SIGINT (Signals Intelligence) satellite. According to Tyree

this was the methodology used by Jonathan Pollard and

the Israeli Mossad to compromise many foreign embassies

in Washington.

PROM IS & BIG PICTURE: Tyree described how Prom is

progeny, having inspired four new computer languages had

made possible the positioning of satellites so far out in

space that they were untouchable. At the same time the

progeny had improved video quality to the point where the

same satellite could focus on a single human hair. The

ultimate big picture.

PROMIS & MECHANICAL HUMANS: Tyree explained

that Promis progeny had also evolved to the point where

neural pads could be attached to plugs in the back of the

human head and thought could be translated into electrical

impulses that would be equally capable of flying a plane or

wire transferring money. Names like Sandia, Cal-Tech,

Micron, Tech University of Graz, Octed Leventer andMassimo Grimaldi were mentioned. Data, such as satellite

reconnaissance, could also now be downloaded from a

satellite directly into a human brain. The evolution of the

artificial intelligence had progressed to a point where

animal behavior and thought were being decoded.

Mechanical humans were being tested. Animals were

being controlled by computer.

PROMIS & THE NAGASAKI SYNDROME: Then, placing

the evolutions of Promis in context with the Canadian story

Tyree asked a question as to why one would really now

need to go to all the trouble of monitoring all of a foreign

country's intelligence operations. "There's an easier way to

get what I want," he said. "I access their banks. I access

their banks and I know who does what and who's getting

ready to do what," he said. He described how Canada had

been provided with modified Promis software which

Canada then modified, or thought they had modified, again

to eliminate the trap door. But, unknown, to the Canadians

the Elbit chips in the systems bypassed the trap doors and

permitted the transmission of data when everyone thought

the computers were turned off and secure.

A weapon is only good if someone knows what its

capability is. Prior to using the atomic bomb it was

irrelevant." He continued, "They refer to it as the Nagasaki

Syndrome."

Suggested Reading:

- The Washington Times - Search Archives for "Promis"

- Insight Magazine - a by investigative reporter K. O'Mearaat http://www.insightmag.com/archivel200 10 1307.shtml.

- "The Last Circle" - An online e-book by Carol Marshall athttp://www.lvcaeum.org/books/books/last circle/.

"Trail of The Octopus" - by Lester Coleman, 1993.

- The lnslaw Affair ­

http://www.webcom.coml-pinknoi7Jcovert/inslaw. html.Includes Congressional testimony supporting Inslaw and arecord of court proceedings.

- FfW: Vol. N,No 7 - Oct 15,2001 ­

http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/pand

ora/052401 oromis.html.

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