06 s2 wb the case of bogota - adrc.asia case of...76.2 76.3 88.1 80.4 96.1 80.1 80.1 80.3 80.1 80.9...

1

THE USE OF PROBABILISTIC RISK

MODELLING TO GUIDE

VULNERABILITY REDUCTION:

THE CASE OF BOGOTA

Francis Ghesquiere, The Word Bank

Asian Conference on Disaster Reduction , Colombo June 13, 2011

Bogotá District• Colombia’s capital and main economic center• 750,000 residential buildings• 200 hospitals and health centers• 3,500 schools and Universities• Population: Over 7,000,000 (High concentration of pop.)• Exposed value US$40 Billion only building constructions + infrastructure

2

PROBABILISTIC RISK MODELING

Disaster impact Analsyis- Scenario or Stochastic -

Physical Damage

INFRAESTRUCTURE ECONOMIC SOCIAL ENVIRONMENTAL

Hazard VulnerabilityExposure Risk

HazardsHazards

ExposureExposure

VulnerabilityVulnerability

RiskRisk

+

+

+

Applications

Visualization of hazard and risk / DRM indicators

Territorial planning

Infrastructure design

Cost Benefit analysis for mitigation and prevention investments

Scenario analysis for emergency preparedness

Immediate damage assessment

Analysis of financial exposure

3

Seismic Landslides Floods

Hazard Mapping

INDICATORS FOR RISK MANAGEMENT

4

HazardsHazards

ExposureExposure


RiskRisk

+

+

+

Applications








5

9

10

6

Before…

Resettlement from Nueva Esperanza Barrio

… after

Resettlement from Nueva Esperanza Barrio

7

HazardsHazards

ExposureExposure


RiskRisk

+

+

+

Applications








DESIGN SPECIFICATIONS FOR INFRASTRUCTURE DESIGN

8

HazardsHazards

ExposureExposure


RiskRisk

+

+

+

Applications








Salud

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

76

.2

76

.3

88

.1

80

.4

96

.1

80

.1

80

.1

80

.3

80

.1

80

.9

80

.2

100

102

80

.1

80

.7

80

.1

99

.1

199

94

.1

80

.6

80

.5

80

.8

85

.1

76

.1

83

.1

87

.1

88

.2

78

.1

95

.1

84

.2

84

.1

104

82

.1

77

.1

77

.2

77

.3

77

.4

79

.1

110

90

.2

109

100

98

.1

90

.1

89

.1

108

81

.1

75

.1

91

.4

101

102

79

.2

93

.1

97

.1

103

107

86

.1

92

.1

Administración

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

223

.1

200

.1

206

.3

217

.1

216

.1

193

.1

221

.1

198

.2

230

.1

211

.1

194

.1

235

.3

229

.1

214

.1

235

.1

229

.2

197

.1

212

.2

235

.2

196

.2

219

.1

206

.1

206

.2

205

.1

213

.1

212

.1

220

.1

218

.1

196

.1

215

.1

234

.1

198

.1

226

.1

189

.1

233

.1

222

.1

Health sector buildings

Schools buildings

Benefit-Cost Analysis

9

Retrofitting of Critical Infrastructure

Colegio Distrital Florida Blanca

10

HazardsHazards

ExposureExposure


RiskRisk

+

+

+

Applications








DAY

Scenario Analysis - # of injured

NIGHT

11

Contingency and Emergency Planning

• Location of emergency units

• Functional vulnerability (emergency routes, etc.)

• Health services requirements

• Housing requirements

• Food requirements

• Utilities requirements (water, energy, etc.)

• Debris and construction materials

• Etc.

HazardsHazards

ExposureExposure


RiskRisk

+

+

+

Applications








12

Bogotá Accelerograph Network (RAB)Equipment and Net Coverage

ETNA

K2

IMMEDIATE DAMAGE ESTIMATION

Damage Distribution CalculationSurface Response Spatial Distribution

Physical damageHuman losses

13

HazardsHazards

ExposureExposure


RiskRisk

+

+

+

Applications








Technical premium(annual expected loss)

Insurance

Premium

Calculation

Insurance

Premium

Calculation

14

5%

7%

9%

11%

13%

15%

17%

0 250 500 750 1000 1250 1500

Periodo de Retorno [años]

PM

L[%

]

Deducible 0%

Deducible 3%

Deducible 5%

Loss Exceedence AnalysisLoss Exceedence Analysis

� One risks model can be used for a large number of applications

� Cost of modeling is going down:- geospatial technologies- open source models

� “Models remain models”

FINAL REMARKS

15

THANK YOU…

Francis Ghesquiere

[email protected]

06 s2 wb the case of bogota - adrc.asia case of...76.2 76.3 88.1 80.4 96.1 80.1 80.1 80.3 80.1 80.9...

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