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UNFCCC SBSTA 34 Workshop on research, June 2011

Impacts of climate change on farming

and food security

Bruce CampbellProgram Director

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Agriculturein the

UNFCCCArticle 2 of the Treatystabilization of GHG concentrations [.....] should be achieved within a

time frame sufficient [] to ensure that food production is notthreatened (emphasis added).

Proposed agriculture text was dropped in Cancun (only

calling for a SBSTA work program)

Now it remains as agriculture as a driver of deforestation

in REDD+

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In order to meet global

demands, we will need

60-70%

more foodby 2050.

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Long term

impacts onproduction

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Crop suitability will fall in many areas

Andrew Jarvis, CIAT/CCAFS

50 crops, to 2050

-95 to -31

-30 to -11-10 to -1

0

1 to 29

30 to 47

48 to 98

% change

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Irrigation will be impacted

A1F1

A2aB1a

B2a

Zhu and Ringler, IFPRI

2030

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Impacts on prices

and food security

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Current price 2050 price

No climate change

2050 price

Climate change

(two different models)

Foodpricerises

Jerry Nelson

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Unchecked climate change will result in a

20% increase in malnourished children by 2050,

GeraldNelson,IFPRI/CCAFS

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Impacts already measurable

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production.

C. L. Gilbert & C. W. Morgan, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Wheat

Rice

Maize

Soya

Many causes, climate not main driver but contributory

Poor Australian wheat harvests in 2006 and 2007

Poor European wheat harvest 2007

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Historical impacts on wheat

% Yield impact

for wheat

Changes in growing season

temperature,1980-2008.

Lobell et al (2011)

China

IndiaUS

Russia

France

Global

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Farmers are adapting.. Zai in Burkina

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Climate change adaptation will sometimes

drive increases in emissions

No rice planting before 15th June

Harvest rice in October; reincorporate

residues Plant wheat in November

But high temperatures in March dictate

an earlier planting time for wheat

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2 million hectares now being burnt

CO2 and haze

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Incremental Adjustments Transformative Adaptation

Costly, risky and complex

Incremental: early harvesting

manipulation of the cropcanopy

selection of drought-

tolerant root stock

use of water efficient

technologies and

practices

Transformative

Relocation of grape production or

wineries to cooler regions Shifts to other crops

Diversify into additional on and off-

farm income-generating activities

Parks et al CSIRO

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www.ccafs.cgiar.org

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Message 1:

Recognise the multipleroles of agriculture

FoodSecurity

Mitigation

Adap

tation

Adaptation

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Message 2:

Get agriculture as a workprogram

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Message 3:It is feasible to

incentivize

agriculture andreduce

deforestation

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Thank you

www.ccafs.cgiar.org

Meridian Institute: Addressing Agriculture

in Climate Change Negotiations: A Scoping

Paper Saturday 11th June, 6pm

CCAFS/FAO/ZEF: Incentives to

Agriculture, halting deforestation. 8th June,

3.15 pm

CCAFS/FAO: Climate-Smart Agriculture

10th June, 6 pm