09 11 24 democracy & china
TRANSCRIPT
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Climate Change
The great challenge for democracy &
Why China will lead
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The background & assumptions
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Global population since 0 AD (bn)
5
10
Adam Smith’s
Invisible Hand 1776
Pop 900m
End Second
WWII
Pop 3bn
Current 6bn
0
5
Meyer Amschel
Rothschild was born
1744
Pop 784m
Source – United Nations
Pop average of 240m in 1st Millennium
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Global temperatures
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Met Office report, Nov 09
• 5 yrs work, 66 scientific institutions
• Emissions need to be cut to zero by
2100 to limit to 2C of change
• “Europe is currently on track to
experience a rise in average
Agreement diminishes with distance from the science
95%
70%
40%
% of people who agree
experience a rise in average
temperatures of 4C by the end of the
century”
Scientists Mainstream
press
Online
comments
Source – An informed guess
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• Increasing number of countries considering cap & trade
• The technology is emerging
• Insurers are quantifying the costs
• 8th Nov 09 – Spain > 50% of electricity from wind
Momentum is building
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Ways we can solve climate change
Low risk High risk
Carbon management Geo-engineering
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Democracy and climate change
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People are looking to government for answers
Source - HSBC
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• Record energy sector lobbying
in Q309
• Oil & gas, utilities - $261m
• Environmental groups - $16m
• Alternative energy - $23m
But public opinion is waning as policy D-day approaches
91%86%
83%
75%
79% 78%75%70%
80%
90%
100%
Those seeing evidence of Global
Warming in US
53%59%
62%
49%
35%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2006 2007 2008 2009
Dem
Ind
Rep
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• Complex science
• Global issue
• Symptoms are slow to arrive
• An absence of “necessity”
• Are you willing to ignore public opinion?
Only the brave need apply
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China – from problem to catalyst
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6.15.8
3.94
5
6
7
Biggest CO2 emitters by 2006 emissions (Trn tonnes)
1.6 1.51.3
0.80.6 0.5 0.5 0.5
0
1
2
3
Source – United Nations
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2007 Emissions / capita (tonnes of CO2)
19.8 20.2
18.7 19.1 18.919.9
19.318.8 18.9
North America Europe China
8.69.1
8.3 8.4 8.2 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.1
1.2 1.4 1.6 2.02.5 2.4
3.9 4.3 4.6
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007
North America Europe China
Source - IEA
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% of energy coming from renewables (selected countries)
6%
2%
8%
9%
Germany
UK
US
China
40%
30%
20%
10%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
Sweeden
Finland
Denmark
France
Source - Guardian newspaper & EIA
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• Rising human-related emissions are
causing severe climate change
• Environmental pollution costs of
US$74.9 billion in 2004, 3% of GDP
• Forecasted temperature rises of 1.3-
2.1 degrees C by 2020
National Assessment Report on Climate Change, 2006
2.1 degrees C by 2020
• North becoming increasingly
vulnerable to drought
• South suffering from more serious
floods
• By 2030 the overall crop productivity
to decrease by 5% - 10%
Source - CBI Developing a low-carbon economy in China
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Commitment through stimulus budgets in 2009
Country Fund Period Green Fund % Green
USDbn Years USDbn
China 586 2009-10 221 38%
US 185 2009-19 18 10%
Germany 105 2009-10 14 13%
France 38 2009-10 7 21%France 38 2009-10 7 21%
UK 30 2009-12 2 7%
Average 794 267 34%
Asia Pacific 1,154 267 23%
Europe 326 54 17%
Americas 1008 115 11%
Source - HSBC
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• Not worried about public opinion
• On track to exceed 2020 goal of 15% of
energy from renewables
• On track to meet main goal of 20%
reduction in intensity by end 2010
• May be leading on CCS
Where is China today?
• May be leading on CCS
• 2007 - the largest renewable energy
producer
• 50% of scooter sales are electric
• Electric cars starting to appear
• 6 largest (PV) manufacturers, had a
market cap of US$15bn in July 2008.
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• Founder is the richest man in
China
• Warren Buffet owns 10%
• See a small role for electric cars
in the 2020 market
• Working on a plug-in electric
hybrid
At a micro level
• Claims for 2010 electric car
250 mile range
½ charge in 10 mins
Full charge in an hour
hybrid
• Recharging infrastructure
• Sale price of 3 x combustion
engines
• Linking engines to regulations
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Conclusion
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• Climate policy is disruptive
• China is a game changer
• The UK risks being a laggard
• Brave politicians & voters
needed
Why is all of this important?
• Entrepreneurs will deliver
• Vote for revolution!
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Jim Woods
Mobile 07932 044 627
Acre switchboard 0845 257 8030
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