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SummaryReportsNIAGARAREGION
HIRAWORKSHOPS:201420152016
ByMadelynWebb,M.Sc.,M.B.A.ForACERandGreeningNiagara SupportedbyOntarioTrilliumFoundationPartner:NiagaraPeninsulaConservationAuthorityMay,2016Locations:
2014HeartlandForestOutdoorEducationCentre–8215HeartlandForestRd,NiagaraFalls,ON2015StokesCommunityVillage–36PageStreet,StCatharines,ON2016CentreforConservationatBall’sFalls(GlenRoom)–3292SixthAvenue,Jordan,ON
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ExecutiveSummaryforthreeyearsofworkshopsonHIRA(HazardsInventoryandRiskAssessment)
OverthethreeyearsofHIRAworkshops,externalconditionsemphasizedtheimportanceofthisworktodemonstratetherelevanceofidentifyingthehazardsassociatedwithextremeweather.Sensitisingdecision-makersandengagingthecommunityindialogue,becomeapartofactionplanstoaddressclimate-relatedhazardsandtheirassociatedrisks.
ThefirstHIRAworkshop,inearly2014,tookplacelessthan2monthsaftertheworsticestormsince1998ineasternCanada.Lackofpreparednessonthepartsoftheirmunicipalitiesandpersonalstoriesabouttheresultingconcern,displacement,discomfort,lackofcommunicationandfinanciallossesweretopofmindfortheparticipants.Morethan60personsattended,attestingtothetimelinessandimportanceofthetopic.Participantscontributedtoalonglistofsuggestedactionstobeconsideredaspartoffutureplanningforindividualsandmunicipalities.
Climatechange,reflectedthroughsignificantincreaseinaveragetemperatures,extremeweathereventsandotherindicatorsaspredictedby40climatechangemodels,isarealityinNiagara.Thepresentationsbytwoprominentscientistswithdecadesofexperienceonthematterbroughthometheurgencyforincreasingeffortsinmitigationandadaptationtocontainnotonlytheeconomicburdenonmunicipalities,individualsandtheinsuranceindustry,butalsotoalleviatethediscomfort,displacementandattimes,realsufferingofcitizensduringanextremeevent(see2014reportfordetails).
Thefollowingyear,GreeningNiagaraandACERinvitedmunicipaldecision-makersasattendees.Althoughattendancewaslower,wemadeanimpactinadvancingawarenessthatweather-relatedemergencieshavebecomethehighestpriorityformunicipalitiesintermsofimpactandcosttogovernment,insurancecompaniesandindividuals.Municipalcouncillorsandplanningofficialswhoparticipatedhadtheopportunitytodeveloptheirownlistofemergencypriorities.Thischangedthethinkingofsomeoftheattendeesandsawthemreturntotheirmunicipalitieswithadifferentperspectivetoapplytotheiremergencyplanning(see2015reportfordetails).
In2016,theemergency-preparednesslandscapehadchangedtoonewhereemergencyplanninghadbecomearealityformunicipalitiesandmanyoftheimplicationsunderstood.However,ourinvestigationsindicatedthatthecommunity’srolehasnotbeenaswelldefinedinNiagaraRegionasithasinsomeotherjurisdictions(e.g.UnitedStates,AustraliaandpartsoftheGTA).
Inlightofthisnewconsciousness,GreeningNiagaraandACERturnedtheirattentiontobringingtogethermembersofthepublic,alongwithfirstresponders,andpolicy-makers,toshowhowadialogueamongthesepartiescouldhighlightthe
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benefitsofcollaboration,pointtodeficiencies,informcitizensoftheworkofthemunicipalitiesandfacilitatetwo-waycommunication.WebelievethatthiswasthefirsttimethatsuchadialoguehasbeenfacilitatedatthecommunitylevelwithrespecttoemergencyplanninginOntario.
Atthisfinalworkshop,mapsofthemunicipalitieswereusedtoengageparticipantsinidentifyingassetsandassessingtheiradequacyintheeventofemergencies(e.g.isthehospitalcloseenoughtoserveremoteareas).Thedialogueledtoabetterunderstandingofmunicipalassets,includingcorridorsforrailandroadsandwaterwaysandtheirrelationshiptopotentialemergencies.ImportanthazardswereprioritizedusingtheHIRAprocess.Anecdotalinformationelaboratingonlocalhazards,assetsandvulnerabilitieswasdocumentedandprovidesanimportantbodyofknowledgethatwillinformfutureplanningaswellasabenchmarktoassesschangesinthefuture.Again,morethan60peopleparticipatedandfeedbackbasedonanelectronicsurveywasverypositive(see2016detailedreportthatfollows).
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2016HIRAWorkshopReportByMadelynWebb,M.Sc.,M.B.A.
ForACER May,2016
Thisreporthighlightsthe2016workshop.Theappendicesshowdetailsfromthe2016workshop.
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TableofContents
Introduction 6
Summaryofspeakers’remarks 6
Dr.MarianneKrasny,DirectorofCivicEcologylab,CornellUniversity,NewYork
Mr.DonMcIver,retiredscientistandMayorofAmaranthTownship,Ontario
Workshopmethodology 7
Results 8
Conclusions 9
Acknowledgement 10
ListofAppendices:
A.Agenda 11B. Listofattendees 12C. HIRAmethodologyandgriddiagram(HIRAandcasestudy) 14D. Mapof12municipalities 24E. HIRAHazardsandScores(includingkeyandlistofNiagaraHazards)25F. HIRAAssetsandVulnerabilities 33G. Resultsofevaluationsurvey 58ListofTables:Table1.HazardsIdentifiedforNiagaraandCodes 8
Table2.ExamplesofpriorityhazardsidentifiedatHIRAworkshop. 9
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INTRODUCTION
The2016HIRAworkshop
OnFebruary5th,2016,ACERheldthethirdandfinalworkshopintheHIRA(HazardInventoryandRiskAssessment)seriesfortheNiagaraRegion.FundingfromtheOntarioTrilliumFoundationisgratefullyacknowledged.TheworkshopwasheldattheCentreforConservationatBall’sFalls(GlenRoom)at3292SixthAvenue,Jordan,Ontario,L0R1S0.
Theagendaconsistedoftwospeakers,includedinstructionontheHIRAprocess,and,afterlunch,fivebreak-outsessionsfocusedonclimate-relatedhazardsfor12municipalitiesintheNiagaraRegion(Agenda,AppendixA).
Morethansixtypersonsattendedtheevent,whichranfrom9:00amto3:00pm(ListofAttendees,AppendixB).
SUMMARYOFSPEAKERS’REMARKS
Speaker:Dr.MarianneKrasny,CornellUniversity,Ithaca,NewYork.
Dr.KrasnyspokeaboutherresearchonCommunityEngagementinenvironmentalstewardship,apracticeshereferstoas“CivicEcology”.Shedefinedthetermas“localenvironmentalstewardshipactionstakentoenhancethegreeninfrastructureandcommunitywell-beinginurbanandotherhumandominatedsystems”.FromCanada,shecitedtheEvergreenBrickworks.TheworkhasevolvedoutofCornellUniversity’soutreachresponsibilitiestoteachabouttheenvironmentincities,whichhastakenheraroundtheworld.Herexamplesof“CivicEcology”inactionincludedacommunitygardenonNewYork’slowereastsidetoagrassrootsprojecttobeautifyformerlygarbage-strewnareasofBangladesh.
Speaker:DonMcIver,retiredscientistandMayorofAmaranthTownship,Ontario.
DonMcIverspokeabouthowtoorganizeatthelocalleveltodevelopsolutionstoenvironmentalproblems.HewentontofocusonResiliencewhichhedefinedas“theabilitytobouncebackafteradisaster”andidentifieditsthreeparts:DisasterRiskReduction,EmergencyPreparednessandEmergencyResponse.Heindicated,basedonhisexpertise,thatOntariois27%belowtheCanadianaverageinEmergencyPreparedness.
HecitedadaptationsthatOntariohasalreadyexperiencedinresponsetoclimatechange.Forexample,cropshavebeenadjusted.Butreadinessispoorforotherextremes,suchashighwinds,theeffectsofwhichcouldbemitigatedbyinstallingroofclipstopreventdamagefromwindstormswithspeedabove90kmperhour.
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HenotedthattheclimatechangemodelssuggestthatsouthernOntarioprepareforwarmerandwetterweather.
Inpreparationforthebreak-outsessions,DonexplainedtheHIRAprocessfordetermininglocalhazards(AppendixC,HIRAmethodologyandgriddiagram).
WORKSHOPMETHODOLOGY
Preparationfortheworkshop:
MeetingswereheldwiththepartnersinDecember2015,tofurtherdevelopthemethodologyandmaterialsaswellastheinvitationlistfortheworkshop.
Basedontheprevioustwoyearsofeffort,wenotedthatmanyjurisdictionshadmadeprogressontheirownemergencypreparednessplanning,forextremeweatherorotheremergencies.However,therehadnotyetbeenaneventwherecitizens,policymakersandfirstrespondershadcometogethertohearabouttheseplans,providecritiquesaroundanygapsandaddressthecapacityofthecommunitytopreparetheirownhouseholds,helpoutneighboursandperhapsprovidevolunteerassistanceshouldanemergencyoccur.
HavingaccesstovariousGISlayersofinformationfortheregion,itwasdecidedthatmapsforeachofNiagara’stwelvemunicipalitieswouldbemadeavailablesothatparticipantswouldhavereadyaccesstospecificlocalinformationoninstitutions,transportationcorridors,waterwaysandotherassetsthatcouldbeimpactedorbroughtintoplayintheeventofanemergency.
DonMcIverlisted15weatherhazardsonthescreenforalltoview(AppendixC–page16).DonMcIverhadalreadybriefedtheroomonhowtosetprioritiesusingtheHIRAmethod.Participantsweredividedintotheirgroupingsofadjacentmunicipalities,witheachtablehavingalocalmapforconsultationbyfirstresponders,policymakersandcitizens.Afacilitatorandrecorderassistedeachbreakoutgroup.Thefivemunicipalgroupingsgatheredatseparatetablesareasfollows:Lincoln,WestLincolnandGrimsby;NiagaraFallsandNiagara-on-the-Lake;St.CatharinesandThorold;Wainfleet,PortColborneandFortErie,and;PelhamandWelland.(AppendixD:Mapof12MunicipalitiesrepresentedatACERworkshop).
EachgroupidentifiedthetopsixhazardsfromthelonglistprovidedandappliedtheHIRAmethodtoeachhazard.Thosehazardsthatscoredhighest,accordingtothegraphicalanalysis,becametheprioritiesthatweresubjecttothediscussionsthatfollowed(AppendixE:HIRAhazardsandscores).
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RESULTS
Theresultsoftheworkshoparepresentedintwocharts,AppendicesEandF.
Table1.HazardsIdentifiedforNiagaraandCodes
Hazard CodeHumanHealthEmergency
HHE
WaterQualityEmergency
WQE
HealthEpidemic HETransportationEmergency
TE
KeyInfrastructureFailure
KIF
SustainableFoodSystems
SFS
LandUseChange LUCExtremeSnow/Rain ESRFlooding FWindStorm WSPowerFailure PFTornadoes TDrought DEarthquakes EHazardousMaterialsFire
HMF
ExtremeCold ECExtremeTemperatures ETPipeline PL
Fromthelistofallthepossiblehazards,eachmunicipalgroupingselectedalistof
whattheysawasimportant(AppendixE,HIRAHazardsandScores).
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Table2.Examplesofpriorityhazards,bymunicipality,identifiedattheHIRAworkshop,usingtheHIRAmethodology.
Municipalities Top6priorityissues
Grimsby/Lincoln/WestLincoln ResidentialSwimPonds
Niagara-on-the-Lake/NiagaraFalls Traffic,Spills,ExtremeSnow,Wind),Drought,WaterQuality,Tornadoes
St.Catharines/Thorold Epidemic,LandUse,Floods,Storms,PowerOutages,Spills
FortErie/PortColborne/Wainfleet InfrastructureFailure,Wind,PowerOutages
Welland/Pelham Nonedocumented
Fortheshortlistofimportanthazards,theHIRAprocesswasappliedtorankthehazardsinpriority.Participantsdiscussedsomeofthedetailsofthehazardsandwhytheywererankedastheywere(AppendixE).Detailedcommentsfromthediscussionwereannotatedbesideeachhazardalongwitheachscore,foreachmunicipalityorsetofmunicipalgroupings.Thisprovidesarecordofthelevelofhazard,whyitisconsideredahazardandmayformabenchmarkforfuturehazardassessment.
FollowingthisdiscussionoftheHIRApriorities,andreferringtothemaps,participantsidentifiedCommunityAssetsandVulnerabilitiesandrecordedthemonthemapsiftheywerenotalreadymarked.AssetsandVulnerabilitieswerelistedandarepresentedbymunicipality,ormunicipalgrouping(AppendixF:HIRAAssetsandVulnerabilities).
CONCLUSIONS
1. Theworkshopwasthefirstopportunity,toourknowledge,inOntario,forcitizens,plannersandfirstresponderstocometogethertoreviewplans,askquestionsandidentifygapsintheiremergencyplans.
2. Datagatheredfromtheworkshopsindicatesthepriorities,basedontheHIRAanalysis,forNiagara’stwelvemunicipalities(AppendixE).Theseformaguideforpolicymakersindevelopingtheirlocalactionplans,aswellascreatingabaselineforthefuturetohelpassessimprovementsinmitigationandadaptationinyearstocome.Citizenshavebeenempoweredtoask
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questionsanddotheirownpreparations(suchasthe72hourkit)asaresultofthepresentationsanddialoguethattheworkshopsprovided.
3. Anecdotaldataontheassetsandvulnerabilitiesofthevariousmunicipalities(AppendixF)providesinsightintotheconcernsbyaknowledgeablegroup,includinggapsinknowledgesuchaswhoisinchargeforaspecifictypeofemergency.Thesedetailsareusefultoinformplannersandemergencyrespondersaswellascitizensandmayformthebasisforfutureplansandaction.
4. Follow-upwithorganizationsrequestingHIRAfortheirownlocationswillformapartofourfuturework.
Anevaluationsurveyforparticipantswascirculatedfollowingtheworkshop.Aboutone-thirdofattendeesresponded.Theircommentsaresummarizedbelow,alongwithotherobservations.
1. Allrespondersratedthequalityoftheworkshopas“good”,“verygood”,or“excellent.
2. Ninetypercentofrespondersratedthespeakersas“extremelyengaging”or“veryengaging”.
3. Astothevalueoftheworkshop,sixtypercentofresponderssaid“havingarangeofstakeholders”;40%answered“discoveringnewinformation”,andnearly40%indicated“workingwithmaps”.
4. Eightyfivepercentofrespondersindicatedthatthe‘nofee’aspectoftheworkshopwasofvaryinglevelsofimportancetohavingtheirparticipation.
5. Around80%ofrespondersfeltthattheobjectivesoftheworkshopwereeither“veryclear”or“clear”.
6. ThesurveyrespondersidentifiedalonglistoftopicstheywouldliketohearaboutinfuturethatincludedhavingaHIRAworkshopintheirowncommunity,moreinformationonhowtoprepareforemergencies,enhancinggreeninfrastructure,financingforemergencypreparednessformunicipalitiesandothers.
(AppendixG:Resultsofevaluationsurvey).
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
ThesupportoftheOntarioTrilliumFoundationisgratefullyacknowledged.
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APPENDICES
AppendixA:Agenda
Location CentreforConservationatBall’sFalls–GlenRoom 3292SixthAvenue,Jordan,ONL0R1S0
Hand-outs Agenda72Hours+List,StewardshipGuidesPlantGuides
9:00–9:05 Welcome(JaneHanlon,GreeningNiagara)
9:05–9:15 OrientationfortheDayandIntroductions(GailPicco,ACER)
9:15–10:30 Dr.MarianneKrasny,CornellUniversity(PresentationandQuestions)
10:30–10:45 Break
10:45–11:30 DonMacIver,ClimateScientistandMayorofAmar(PresentationandQuestions)
11:30–12:15 Lunch
12:15–12:35 OrientationfortheWorkshopSessionsDeannaLindbland,NPCAandMadelynWebb,ACER
12:35–1:15 BreakoutSession:HIRAProbabilityand ConsequenceMapping(SixGroups)
1:15–1:55 BreakoutSession:AssetMapping(SixGroups)
2:00–2:40 ReportsfromSession1and2
2:45–3:00 ConcludingRemarks(AliceCasselman,ACER)
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AppendixB:ListofAttendees
FirstName LastName OrganizationAdam Allcock ManagerofWaterandWasteWater,TownofLincolnAlice Casselman ACERAmy Brunning HeartlandForestAndre Sergeyev StatisticianBianca Bielski PlannerBill Hunt PerkinsFireDepartment,AssisstantFireChiefCaitlin Garner MastersstudentatBrockUniversityCarolanne Forster GreenPartyCarolyn King MississaugasoftheNewCreditFirstNationsCatherine Wassmansdorf RiverwoodConservancyColleen McNamara Corey Burant NiagaraParks,ParksStewardshsipCoordinatorDeanna Lindbland NiagaraPeninsulaConservationAuthorityDon MacIver SpeakerEd Smith Edith George HeritageTrees(UFO)Erin Campbell Gail Picco ACERGeorge Henry ChippewaoftheThamesFirstNationHamsha Pathmanathan ACERHarry Flagg FireChief,WainfleetJade Lalonde BrockUniversityJane Hanlon GreeningNiagaraJason Gallagher HaldimandCountyJason Culp St.Cathatines,EnvironmentalServicesTechnicianJoan Medina ResidentJoe Favro John Bacher GreeningNiagaraJohn Wilson Jonalyn Sagisi SheridanCollegeJonathan Bastien ConservationHamiltonJoyce Sankey ResidentKarl Elison St.Catharines
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Kestral Wraggett ConservationHaltonKirushanth Gnanachandran RiverwoodConservancyLeanne Collett ConservationHamiltonLinda Casselman ACERLisa MacPherson NiagaraCatholicDistrictSchoolBoard-P4CTeacherLou Alvaraz Madelyn Webb ACERMallory Fennell Maria Rekrut Marianne Krasny CornellUniversityMarianne Karsh ACERMartin Corneau ACERMelissa Prout AusableBayfieldConservationAuthorityMike McMillan ACERNate Smelle GreeningNiagaraNimesha Basnayaka ACEROlav Sibille PlannerandProjectLeader,CityofMississaguaPamela Bunnin NiagaraParksPaul McNamara Peggy Allewell St.CatharinesPeter Dmytrasz CityofTorontoPhilip Curtis NiagaraRegionRehana Rajabali TRCARita Bijons CREWRobert Lymburner Sadia Butt UofTSonya Wieler ACERSundus Ansari UTMstudentThaia Jones SierraClubTom Staton Tony Juric YorkUniversityTrevor Doomernik LincolnFireandRescueServiceTyler Prince Vincent Pang Win Laar Yapa Kiriwanegedara SheridanCollegeYvonne Hopkins
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AppendixC:HIRAMethodology
HazardsIdentificationandRiskAssessment,Trends,andtheirValue
forWaterSystemsManagers
AlanaMcCulloch-AuldandHeatherAuld
Preparedfor
ACER
AssociationforCanadianEducationalResources
http://acer-acre.ca/
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IntroductiontoaHazardsIdentificationandRiskAssessmentProcess
In2003,OntarioproclaimedBill148(theEmergencyManagementAct),whichisnowtheEmergencyManagementandCivilProtectionAct,RSO1990.Theintentofthelegislationwasto“improveandpromotethesustainablemanagementofhazardsandtoencouragecommunitiestoachieveacceptablelevelsofrisk”.ThelegislationmandatedallmunicipalitiesandprovincialgovernmentdepartmentstoundertakeacompleteHazardsIdentificationandRiskAssessment(HIRA)processtoidentifypriorityriskstopublicinfrastructureandpublicsafetyandtodevelopprioritizedemergencymanagementplansforeachoftheirtop-rankedrisks.Theprocessrequiredthatmunicipalitiesandgovernmentdepartmentsidentifypotentialhazardsinageographicarea,assesstheirlikelihoodofoccurrence(probability)anddeterminetheimpactthatcouldberealizedifthehazardoccurred(consequence).TheHIRAprocessprovidesmunicipalitiesanddepartmentswiththemeansbywhichtoidentifythehazardsthatposethehighestrisktotheregioninordertoprioritizeinvestmentsinplanningandmitigationstrategies.
Often,whenlong-timeresidentsofageographicarea(andevensubjectmatterexperts)areaskedtheirsubjectiveopinionsontheprobabilityandlikelihoodofdifferenthazards,therecanbemanydifferentresponsesthatvarygreatly,eventhoughtheresidentsmayberecallingtheexactsameevents.Thissubjectivevariabilityhighlightstheneedforanobjective,evidence-basedHIRAprocess,onethatnotonlylooksatpastoccurrences,butalsolookstothefuturebyusingrecentlyobservedtrendsandprojectedimpactsofachangingclimate.Themoreinformed,comprehensiveanddetailedtheprocessusedtocompleteaHIRA,themoreeffectiveatoolthatregionalmanagersthenhavetobuildtheircommunity’sresilience.
Weather,ClimateandRiskstoWaterwaysOntarioislocatedinasevereweatherbattlegroundwherewarmmoistairfromtheGulfofMexicoortheAtlanticOceanfrequentlyconflictswithcoldarcticoutbreaksandwheremeteorologicalsystemstrackthroughtheprovincefromallpossibledirectionsandorigins.Snowstorms,icestorms,tornadoes,windstorms,severethunderstormsandlightning,heavyrainstormsandflooding,coldandheatwaves,extremeHumidexvalues,forestfiresanddroughtsallcanresultindamagestoproperty,livelihoods,andnaturalheritageandthreatenthelivesofOntarioresidents.InsupportofthislegislationandincollaborationwithEmergencyManagementOntario,EnvironmentCanadadevelopedanAtmosphericHazardswebsite(www.hazards.ca)toshareandadditscollectionofpeer-reviewedatmosphericandclimatologicalhazardsinformation.
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TheProvinceofOntariohascompiledalistof37hazardsthatareconsideredtobepossibleinmostgeographicareasandshouldbeassessedinaHIRAprocess.Thelistofhazardsincludes19naturalhazards,13technologicalhazards,and5human-causedhazards.Ofthesehazards,7canbedirectlyattributedtowaterwaysandtheirmanagement1andatleast9ofthehazardshavethepotentialtonegativelyimpactwaterways2.Whenthesecondaryimpactsofotherhazardsaretakenintoaccount,thepotentialforsignificantimpactscanbeevengreater.
Asurveyofthetop-rankedHIRAidentifiedrisksforallOntariomunicipalities(MacIveretal,2009)indicatedthatatmosphericandweather-relatedhazardsareamongthetop-rankedrisksformostcommunitiesandinfrastructure.Forexample,almosthalfofthemanymunicipalitiesthatrespondedtothesurveyidentifiedtornadoesandseverethunderstormsintheirtop-10risks.Indeed,municipalitiesoverwhelminglylistedsevereweathereventsingeneralastheirnumberonerisk,definingsevereweatherasicestorms,snowstorms,tornadoes,severethunderstormsandhail,windstorms.
Figure1.Top-rankedHIRAidentifiedrisksforOntarioMunicipalities(Extractedfrom:MacIveretal,2009).
1Damfailure,flooding,erosion,drought,landslides,landsubsidenceandwaterqualityemergencies.2Oil/naturalgasincidents,transportationemergencies,nuclearincident,radiologicalincident,tropical(orextratropical)storms,Hazardousmaterialsincident-fixedsite,hazardousmaterialsincident-transportation,terrorism,extremeheat/cold.
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ConductingaHIRAAHIRAcanbefocusedintwodifferentways:ageographicorregionalapproach(consideringhazardprobabilityanditsimpactonaspecificmunicipality,watershed,region,orothergeographically-limitedunit),orfunctionally(wherethelikelihoodandseverityofahazardimpactingaspecificserviceorfunctionbyagovernment,governmentunit,orcompanyisconsidered).Typically,ageographicapproachisused,withcarefulanalysesofcriticalinfrastructureimpactsinaspecificarea.
Steps
EstablishingcontextThestartoftheHIRAprocessrequiresinformationontheregionalcontext,includingidentificationofwhytheHIRAisbeingconducted,thekeystakeholdersinvolved,therisktoleranceandresponsecapabilityoftheorganizationandthekeyphysicalfeaturesofthearea.AtrulyeffectiveHIRAalsoconsidersthecontextoftheregionalpopulation,includingageandincomedistributions,employment,geographicconcentrationofthepopulationandanyendemicsocialissues.Itiscriticalthatthelocalclimateandgeographybewellunderstoodanddocumented.Factorssuchaselevation,floodplainzones,biodiversityandecosystemservicestotheregion(e.g.forfloodriskreduction),waterresources(suchasaquifers,overlandflow),soilwaterholdingcapacity,waterstoragecapacity(e.g.wetlands,reservoirs),majorlanduseandforesttypescanalleffecthowahazardwillimpactaregion.
IdentifythehazardsAtthisstage,themostsignificanthazardsthatcouldimpactthegeographicareaareidentifiedandtheirpotentialimpactsareassessed.Theinitialhazardidentificationcanbedoneinavarietyofways,butitisessentialtovalidatefindingswithobjectivedatawhereverpossible.HazardidentificationcanbeundertakenthroughaHIRAcommittee’sresearch,byinterviewingsubjectmatterexpertsonspecificrisks,bypollingkeystakeholdersorthroughothertechniques.TheidentifiedhazardsundertheOntarioHIRAprocessneedtoberankedas‘likely’,‘possible’or‘unlikely’.Hazardsthatareranked‘likely’or‘possible’areconsideredhigherpriorityforthecompleteriskassessment(nextsteps).
RiskassessmentandevaluationWhileriskisgenericallydefinedas“achanceorpossibilityofdanger,loss,injury,orotheradverseconsequences”(OxfordDictionary),itistypicallyexpressedinemergencymanagementasbeingastheinfluenceofprobabilityandconsequence.Theriskassessmentprocessconsiderstheprobabilityandconsequenceofthehazardinthecontextofpotentialimpactstovulnerablepopulations,critical
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infrastructure,waterqualityandquantity,environment,humanhealth,theeconomy,andotherfactorsvitaltoacommunity.
RisksundertheOntarioHIRAprocessarerankedaccordingtothescalebelow(Table1,Figure2),andthenratedonamatrixthatplotsprobabilityandconsequenceonx-andy-axes.
Table1:TypicalProbabilityandConsequenceRatingValuesProbability Consequence1=Noincidentsinthelast15years. 1=Negligibleimpact.2=Morethanfiveyearssincethelastincident.
2=Limitedimpact(localizeddamage).
3=Oneincidentinthelastfiveyears. 3=Substantialimpact(Widespreaddamage,temporarydisruptionofbasicservices).
4=Severalincidentsinthelastfiveyears.
4=Highimpact(Widespreadandseveredamage,disruptionofessentialservices).
Figure2:ProbabilityandConsequenceRiskAssessmentGrid
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AddingvaluetotheriskassessmentprocessAdditionalregionalinformationcanbeusedtoincreasethevalueandaccuracyoftheHIRAprocess.Forexample,whenassessingprobabilities,itisimportanttonotonlyconsiderrecentpastevents,butalsothepotentialforchangesinwhatisnormal.Thisimprovesproactiveconsiderationofsomeofthelowprobability,veryhighimpacteventsdescribedas“BlackSwanevents”3—eventsthatarenotbelievedtobepossibleuntiltheyarewitnessed.Inothercases,weather,climateandwater-relatedhazardsmaybechangingduetoeitherclimatevariabilityorclimatechangeandthepasthistorywillnotreflecttherisksforfuturedecades.Inthesecases,itisimportantthattrendsandprojectionsorfutureprobabilitiesshouldconsideredinidentifyingtheimpactsofchanginghazards.
ImplementingmeasurestoreducethreatsOncethetopriskshavebeenidentifiedregionally,avarietyofmeasurescanbeconsideredandimplementedtoreducetheimpactsofthevarioushazards.Theriskreductionadaptationmeasuresrequireacarefulbalancingofthelikelihoodofthehazard,theeffectivenessoftheriskreduction,cost/benefitanalysesandcapacitytorespond–allbasedonsubjectmatterexpertinput.Responsemeasurescanrangefromnear-termemergencyplanningtolong-termriskreductionandinclude:
Prevention-Preventionaimstopreventorreducetheprobabilityofthehazardthroughlegislation(e.g.safetymeasures),enforcement(e.g.pollution),andengineeringanddesign(e.g.watertreatment).Preventionmeasuresaretypicallymorecommonfortechnologicalorhuman-causedhazards.
Mitigationorreductionofrisks-Actionscanbetakentoreducetheimpactofthehazardandthecommunity’svulnerabilitytothehazardinthefuture(e.g.floodplainzoningandplanning,buildingcodes,standards).
EmergencyPreparedness-Thisinvolvesplanningforresponsetoaninevitable,impendingemergencyorpotentialdisaster.Thiscouldincludepublicwarnings,planningandpositioningofresources,andhavingresponsestaffonstandby.
EmergencyResponse-Theresponsephaseoccursdirectlyaftertheemergencyhashappenedandconsistsofactionstakentopreserveimmediatelife,limb,orproperty.
Recovery-Therecoveryisneededaftertheimmediatethreatisreducedandinvolvestransitioningoradaptingthecommunityfrompost-disasterchaosbackto“normal”functioning.Therecoveryphasecanprovidetheopportunitytoreducerisksintothefuturebybuildingbetteroradaptingtothefuturerisks.
3Taleb,N.N.(2010).Theblackswan.(2ed.).RandomHouse.
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Monitoringandre-evaluationAllHIRAresultsneedtobere-evaluatedonanongoingbasisforaccuracy,relevanceandchangingrisks.Mostimportantly,anongoingreviewprovidesanopportunitytorevisittrends,probabilitiesofhazardsandchangingconsequences(e.g.changingclimate,lossofecosystemservice,criticalinfrastructureandvulnerablepopulationchanges).
ThefollowingdiscussionoutlinesanexampleofabasicandamoreadvancedHIRAcompletedforthemunicipalityof“Somewhereville”inOntariotodealwithfloodingrisks.
Table2:HIRAExampleforFloodRisks-basic
ThefollowingisanexampleofabasicHIRAforfloodinginthefictionaltownof“Somewhereville”.
HazardAssessment:FloodingLeadtime:45minutestoseveralhours.Probability:LastoccurredinMarch2011(in[location]).Historically,[specificwatersheds]aremostlikelytodevelopicejamsandcausefloodingatpointsknowntotheConservationAuthority.Flashfloodsalsooccurwithheavyrainfallonaverageeverytwoyears.
Score:4
Consequence:Approximately2000homes(6000people)areatriskofflooddamagefroma20-yearflood.Highpotentialfordamagetopropertydamage,personalinjury,debris,andhumanhealthrisksfromcontamination.Erosionishastenedwithflooding,andanincreasedamountofsedimentinwatersystemscanhavenegativeimpactsonthesystem’sbiodiversity.Floodingistypicallyfairlylocalized.
Score:2
Totalscore:6
Table3:HIRAExampleforFloodRisks-detailedThefollowingisanexampleofamoreadvancedHIRA,whichcontainsmoredetailedinformationthanthebasicHIRAandincludestrends,vulnerablepopulations,andcriticalinfrastructure.
HazardAssessment:FloodingLeadtime:45minutestoseveralhours.Probability:LastoccurredinMarch2011(in[location]).Historically,[specificwatersheds]aremostlikelytodevelopicejamsandcausefloodingatpointsknowntotheConservationAuthority.Flashfloodsalso
Score:4
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occurwithheavyrainfallonaverageeverytwoyears.Trends:Somewhereville,alongwithotherregionsinCanada,hasexperiencedstatisticallysignificantincreasesinannualprecipitation4,inadditiontoanincreaseinthenumberofheavyorveryheavyprecipitationevents.Consequence:Approximately2000homes(6000people)areatriskofflooddamagefroma20-yearflood(asperGISstudiesandhistoricalflooddata).Highpotentialfordamagetopropertydamage,personalinjury,debris,andhumanhealthrisksfromcontamination.Erosionishastenedwithflooding,andanincreasedamountofsedimentinwatersystemscanhavenegativeimpactsonthesystem’sbiodiversity.Floodingistypicallyfairlylocalized.
• Vulnerablepopulations:Atrailerparkislocatedwithinthefloodzoneofa20-yearfloodinthenorthendofthetown,whichisparticularlyvulnerabletoflooding.Childrenareatanincreasedriskofinjuryfromfloodingbecauseoftheircuriosityandstature.
• CriticalInfrastructure:Highprobabilityofdisruptionoftransportationwithroadandhighwayflooding.Potentialforutilityoutageswithfloodinganddelayedemergencyservicesresponsetimes.Hazardousmaterialspillsinafloodmaycontaminatelocalwatersupply.
Score:2
Totalscore:6AC’sNOTEthatthetotalscorecanbeusedtoassignprioritiesforfurtherresearchandactionplanning.
Table4:Somepotentialstrategiestoreducefloodingrisksfor“Somewhereville”.
SampleRiskManagementStrategiesforFloodingPrevention:• Ensureappropriatezoningpreventsresidentialbuildingin
floodzones.• Change/addoverlandflow;enhancewaterstorage,
wetlands,forestcover,andpermeableurbansurfaces.• Ensureconstantwaterlevelmonitoring,especiallyinareas
thatarepronetoflooding.Mitigation: • Considerbuildingdykesandwater-retainingstructuresfor
vulnerablestructuresthatexistinflood-proneareas.• Buildadditionalstormwatercapacity(e.g.reservoirs,de-
couplingofcombinedsewers,biggerstormwaterconveyancecapacity,greenroofs).
4Vincent,L.A.andÉ.Mekis,2006(updated;trends1950-2007).ChangesindailyandextremetemperatureandprecipitationindicesforCanadaoverthetwentiethcentury.Atmosphere-Ocean,44(2):177-193.
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• Relocation.• Publiceducationregardingfloodandwatersafety.
Preparedness: • Stagingsandbagsandsimilarresourcesnearareasexpectedtofloodandpreparationsforpotentialevacuations.
• Provideearlywarningstoresidentsatrisk.• Notifythemunicipalityaffectedassoonasthereispotential
forflooding.Response: • Addadditionalprotection(e.g.sandbagging)andrerouting
ofoverlandflow.• Ensureemergencyresponse,includingevacuations,
emergencysheltersasrequired.• Assesswaterqualityandadvisepublichealthunitto
determinetheneedforwateradvisoriesRecovery: • Ensurestructuralintegrityofaffectedbuildings,bridges,
highways,etc.• Assesssedimentlevelsandwaterquality• Monitorwatershedbiodiversityforimpactsandaddress
needs• Addadditionalprotectionofvulnerableproperties,wetland
buffersandotherecosystemprotectionservices,relocationifnecessary.
TheValueofObjectivedataandTrendsInarapidlychangingworld,itisessentialtonotonlyplanforthepresent,buttokeepaneyeonfuturetrendsandadjustaccordingly.Withclimatechange,theprobability,consequence,andmeansbywhichahazardimpactsacommunityarelikelytochange,andmanagersneedtotakethesechangingrisksintoaccountwhencreatingaHIRAforprudentandeffectiveemergencymanagementprograms.
Objectivedatacanhelpremoveobservationalbiasfromindividualassessmentsandgiveemergencymanagersamoreaccurateviewoftherisksposedtoacommunitybyindividualhazards.StatisticsonprevioushazardoccurrencesshouldbekeptandanalysedforHIRAdevelopment,alongwithpastandprojectedtrendsinformationfromreputablesources.
ConclusionHIRAshavelongbeenrequiredbyemergencymanagersatthemunicipal,provincial,andnationallevelsofgovernment.ConductingaHIRAcanbringsignificantadvantagestomunicipalities,otheragenciesandlevelsofgovernmentinappropriatelymitigatingorreducingrisks,respondingto,andrecoveringfromhazardouseventsfacingwatersystems.WhilecompletingaHIRA,managersmustconsidertheregion’sprobabilityandconsequencesofimpacts(usingobjectivedata
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wherepossible),aswellasvulnerablepopulations,potentialimpacttocriticalinfrastructure,andhistoricalandprojectedclimatetrends.Anevidence-basedHIRA,appropriatepreventionandreductionofhazardsandrisks,andacomprehensive,all-hazardsapproachtoplanningiskeytobuildingresiliencewithincommunitiesandorganizations.
References
Auld,H.,MacIver,D.,Klaassen,J.,Comer,N.,andTugwood,B.2007.PlanningforAtmosphericHazardsandDisasterManagementunderChangingClimateConditions.EnvironmentCanada,OccasionalPaperNo.12,16pp,Availablefrom:http://www.ec.gc.ca/Publications/0532BB2A-2DB3-4DA3-9A89-6CCB98F2225E%5CPlanningForAtmosphericHazardsAndDisasterManagementUnderCurrent.pdfEnvironmentCanada,2012.AtmosphericHazards–Canada.AccessedJan,2012at:http://www.hazards.ca/intro-e.html.
MacIver,D.,Butt,S.,Klaassen,J.,andAuld,H.2009.SevereweatheristhenumberonerisktoMunicipalitiesinOntario.MunicipalWorld,119(12).pp.17-20.
Vincent,L.A.andMekis,É.2006.ChangesindailyandextremetemperatureandprecipitationindicesforCanadaoverthetwentiethcentury.(updated;trends1950-2007).Atmosphere-Ocean,44(2):177-193.