09/11 rite report · asset/risk rite report combining economic, political, technical analysis...

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RITE Report Chris Angle, Editor 19 Topledge Road (P.O. Box 708) Redding, CT 06896 Tel. 203/253-2008 Fax. 203/286-2356 Email: [email protected] http://www.stock-market-direction.net/ Date: November 2, 2009 Asset/Risk RITE Report Combining Economic, Political, Technical Analysis Factors for Prognostication of Economic and Market Direction and Risk Analysis The Purpose of the RITE Report is a Combination of the Following on a Monthly Basis: 1) To research economic and corporate profit trends which is extrapolated to determine an indication of stock market direction; 2) To provide a quantification of investment risk noting to what degree an investor should commit to the stock market with the remaining cash portion in safe, liquid interest rate instruments (this report does not do research on, nor recommend, specific interest rate equities); 3) To suggest a degree of hedging the risks inherent in investing relating to downturns due to political and economic events; and 4) To indicate a degree of use of the U.S. Dollar Index (or other suitable instrument) to hedge any risk of depreciation of a U.S. Dollar dominated value of a portfolio. The extent of economic, political, technical analysis risk will be noted in a chart below and will dictate the overall degree to which the recommended extent of the hedges should be applied to investor portfolios.

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Page 1: 09/11 RITE Report · Asset/Risk RITE Report Combining Economic, Political, Technical Analysis Factors for Prognostication of Economic and Market Direction and Risk Analysis The Purpose

RITE ReportChris Angle, Editor

19 Topledge Road (P.O. Box 708)Redding, CT 06896Tel. 203/253-2008Fax. 203/286-2356

Email: [email protected]://www.stock-market-direction.net/

Date: November 2, 2009

Asset/Risk RITE ReportCombining Economic, Political, Technical Analysis Factors for Prognostication ofEconomic and Market Direction and Risk Analysis

The Purpose of the RITE Report is a Combination of the Following on aMonthly Basis:

1) To research economic and corporate profit trends which is extrapolated todetermine an indication of stock market direction;2) To provide a quantification of investment risk noting to what degree an investorshould commit to the stock market with the remaining cash portion in safe, liquidinterest rate instruments (this report does not do research on, nor recommend,specific interest rate equities);3) To suggest a degree of hedging the risks inherent in investing relating todownturns due to political and economic events; and4) To indicate a degree of use of the U.S. Dollar Index (or other suitableinstrument) to hedge any risk of depreciation of a U.S. Dollar dominated value of aportfolio.

The extent of economic, political, technical analysis risk will be noted in a chartbelow and will dictate the overall degree to which the recommended extent of thehedges should be applied to investor portfolios.

Page 2: 09/11 RITE Report · Asset/Risk RITE Report Combining Economic, Political, Technical Analysis Factors for Prognostication of Economic and Market Direction and Risk Analysis The Purpose

(The RITE Report’s name was derived from the acronym of the four variablesinherent in all economic transactions; Risk, Information/Knowledge, Time, andEffort. Of course, this would be for a service, and if the product were a materialgood, there would be an additional factor of Material - or Land as the economistwould say. See The Philosophical Equations of Economics atwww.philosophypublishing.com for further info on this subject.)

CONTENTS

PART 1 - STOCKS

1) Business News Compilation2) Political Events3) Macro Economic Events4) Technical Analysis5) Chart of Overall Risk6) Overall Equity Market Recommendations

PART 2 - HEDGING

1) Hedging and Inflation Snippets2) Global Catastrophe Snippets & Hedging Index3) Hedging Summary

PART 1 - STOCKS

1) Business News Compilation - From The Wall Street Journal

Part A - Negative Corporate Snippets

10/01- GM's Sales Slide 45%; Chrysler's Fall 42%- Collapse of Penske Deal Spells End For Saturn- UBS Warns on Third-Quarter Losses- Michelin Issues Cautious Outlook10/02- Accenture's Profit Slides As Demand Stays Weak

Page 3: 09/11 RITE Report · Asset/Risk RITE Report Combining Economic, Political, Technical Analysis Factors for Prognostication of Economic and Market Direction and Risk Analysis The Purpose

- Honda's Return to Profit Is Made Uncertain by Yen- San Francisco Bank Girds for Losses on Securities10/03- ConocoPhillips Warns of Earnings Weakness10/06- Boeing Sets $1 Billion Charge for Cargo Plane- Ax Falls on Four Condé Nast Titles: Foodie Bible Gourmet to Be Shuttered asPublisher Faces an Ad Slump With No End in Sight10/07- Vegas Casinos Fold on Expansion Plans- Monsanto Loss Widens to $284 Million- Costco's Profit Falls 6%- Write-Downs, Loan-Loss Provisions Hurt Banesto Results- Aeon's Loss Narrows, but Revenue Declines- U.K.'s Tesco Posts Rise in Earnings, Aided by Strength in Asia, at Home10/08- Marriott Swings to Loss on Time-share Write-Downs- Headwinds Buffet Spain's Banesto: Loan Losses Reduce Net Profit by 30%; BadDebts to Increase10/10- Marriott Posts Loss, Warns of More Challenges for Hotels10/13- Cargill Earnings Decline 65%10/14- BASF Sales, Earnings Drop- Punch Loss Widens Amid Pub Write-Downs10/15- Harley-Davidson's Profit Plunges- H&M Sales Continue to Fall- Posco Feels Sting of Lower Prices- Soured Mortgages Weigh on GE Profit: Bad loans in U.K. threaten to hurt giant'searnings10/16- Bank of America Posts Loss Amid Consumer-Credit Woes- GE Profit Slides Amid Finance-Arm Woes- Mattel Earnings Fall 3.5% on Sales Decline- Halliburton's Profit Falls 61%- Sony Ericsson's Loss Widens

Page 4: 09/11 RITE Report · Asset/Risk RITE Report Combining Economic, Political, Technical Analysis Factors for Prognostication of Economic and Market Direction and Risk Analysis The Purpose

- Schwab Profit Falls; SEC Action on Funds- Safeway Takes Bullet in Grocery Price War: ...fiscal third-quarter earnings fell35% as a combination of low prices and high unemployment continued to pressuresales, though reduced overhead costs helped the supermarket chain top estimates.10/17- BofA Posts a Loss of $1 Billion, Discloses More on Merrill Deal- Mattel Earnings Retreat- GE Points to Recovery Despite Profit Decline: Earnings Drop 42% as ShrinkingFinance Unit Continues to Weigh on Results; Commercial Real Estate CreatesConcerns10/19- Zions Books Loss, but Is Upbeat: Zions reported a loss of $152.9 million, or$1.41 a share, compared with year-earlier earnings of $37.8 million, or 31 cents ashare. Analysts estimated a loss of $1.24, according to a poll by Thomson Reuters.- Norilsk's Profit Drops 84%10/20- Texas Instruments Profit Falls 4.4%- Bank of New York Mellon Posts Loss on Hefty Charge- Coca-Cola Profit Is Flat Despite Volume Growth: The company's revenue camein a notch below analyst views, hurt by the effects of foreign exchange and a 4%volume decline in North America.- Loss Provisions Lead to Regions Loss- Baltics Exposure Hurts Swedbank Results- Gannett Profit Drops 53% on Ad Slump- BB&T Net Falls 58% as Bad Loans Surge10/21- Boeing Posts $1.56 Billion Loss- Northrop Earnings Fall 4.3%- Continental's Loss Narrows Amid Fewer Charges: But the carrier's key revenuemeasurement declined significantly.- St. Jude Reports Profit Drop, Lowers Guidance- Iberdrola's Profit Stays Flat- VTB Posts Net Loss- SEB's Net Profit Drops Sharply as Loan Losses Surge10/23- Microsoft's Profit, Sales Fall but Beat Expectations- Ericsson's Net Profit Drops 71%- Fortune Brands Profit Falls 63%

Page 5: 09/11 RITE Report · Asset/Risk RITE Report Combining Economic, Political, Technical Analysis Factors for Prognostication of Economic and Market Direction and Risk Analysis The Purpose

- T. Rowe Price Earnings Slide 13%- Whirlpool Earnings Fall 47%, Raises View- Honeywell Profit Falls 15% on Weak Sales- Truck Maker Volvo Swings to Loss- Schlumberger Profit Drops 48% on Weak Demand- KDDI Posts 25% Net Profit Drop- Xerox Earnings Tumble 52%, and Outlook Remains Soft10/26- Verizon Profit Drops 30% Amid Charges; Wireless Trails AT&T- RadioShack Reports Weaker Profit, Sales- McGraw-Hill Profit Falls 14%- Corning Profit Falls 16%, Sees Strong LCD Demand- Germany's Merck Tightens 2009 Outlook: Higher Research-and-DevelopmentCosts Help Push Third-Quarter Net Profit Down 28%- Loan Losses Weigh on Popular's Net- JFE Swings to First-Half Loss10/27- Lower Oil, Gas Prices Hit BP's Net- U.S. Steel Posts Loss on Weak Demand- Harrah's Loss Widens, Revenue Falls- TD Ameritrade Earnings Slip 8.8%- BBVA Posts Flat Net Profit- CropScience Unit Weighs on Bayer- United Spirits Profit Falls as Costs Rise- CapitaLand's Net Profit Drops 33%- Tata Steel Profit Down on Low Prices10/28- Conoco Earnings Tumble with Gas Prices- SAP Cuts Revenue Outlook- WellPoint Profit Drops Amid Write-Downs- Santander Posts Flat Net Profit- NEC Electronics' Loss Widens: ...but the company remains cautious about thefuture despite the recent pickup in demand for chips. Meanwhile, NEC ElectronicsCorp. said its net loss for the same quarter widened from a year earlier and it nowexpects a much wider loss for the full fiscal year ending March 2010.- Interpublic Profit Plummets as Ad Revenue Drops- HCL Tech Profit Down 10% Mainly on Hedge Losses- TomTom's Net Declines 47%

Page 6: 09/11 RITE Report · Asset/Risk RITE Report Combining Economic, Political, Technical Analysis Factors for Prognostication of Economic and Market Direction and Risk Analysis The Purpose

- GAIL India Net Profit Falls- Kingfisher Air Loss Narrows On Lower Fuel, Staff Costs: India's biggest airlineby market share posted a net loss of 4.19 billion rupees ($104.4 million) in thethree months ended Sept. 30, compared with 4.83 billion rupees a year earlier.- Weak Gas Prices Hurt BG Results- Versace to Cut 350 Jobs- Qwest Net Falls on Landline Decline10/29- Exxon's Profit Drops 68%- Sprint Nextel Posts Wider Loss- Lufthansa Sees Full-Year Loss- P&G Earnings Fall 1.2%- NEC, Hitachi Earnings Slide on Weak Economy- Burger King Profit Slips on Weak Sales- Weak Oil Prices Weigh on Shell's Net- Nintendo's Net Profit Slides as Wii Demand Wanes- BASF's Net Profit Sinks 69%- Tire Maker Continental Posts Loss- Volkswagen's Net Tumbles 86%- Economy, Regulation Weigh on France Telecom Results10/30- Lower Sales Weigh on NYSE Euronext Results- Alcatel-Lucent's Loss Widens as Sales Slide- WPP Says Too Early to Call Advertising Recovery- Sony Swings to Loss- NTT DoCoMo's Net Drops 20% on Call Revenue Decline- ANA Swings to Net Loss, Downgrades Outlook- MetLife Reports $620 Million Net Loss- Chevron's Profit Drops 51%- Washington Post's Profit Rises

Negative Corporate Snippets Total = 112

Part B - Positive Corporate Snippets

10/01- Constellation Brands Reports Profit- Gannett Turns Hopeful on Profit: Publisher's Forecast Fuels Optimism That

Page 7: 09/11 RITE Report · Asset/Risk RITE Report Combining Economic, Political, Technical Analysis Factors for Prognostication of Economic and Market Direction and Risk Analysis The Purpose

Worst Is Over for Traditional Media- Cost Cutting Aids Nike As Profit Rises Slightly10/05- Murdoch Sees Pickup in TV and Print Advertising10/06- Pepsi Bottling Profit Rises as Commodity Costs Decline- Marshall & Ilsley Sees Slide in Bad Loans- Tesco's First-Half Net Edges Higher- Samsung Foresees Rise in Its Results10/07- Family Dollar's Profit Rises 13%- Yum Profit Surges on Strength in U.S., China10/08- Demand, Cost Cuts Put Alcoa in Black- Pepsi Posts Higher Profit10/09- Fixed-Income Units Likely to Drive Profits: Goldman Looks to Post AnotherBlowout Quarter as Morgan Stanley Appears Headed Into Black- Infosys Profit Up 7.5%, Raises Guidance10/12- Philips Posts a Profit Amid Cost Savings10/13- Johnson Controls Forecasts Positive 2010 on Stimulus, Autos- Johnson & Johnson Net Rises 1.1%- Philips Net Profit Triples: Cost Savings, Gain Offset a Sales Drop; Medical UnitSlips10/14- J.P. Morgan Profit Surges, but Loan Losses Stay High- Abbott's Earnings Rise 36%- Intel Bolsters Hopes for PC Rebound- Burberry's Sales Beat Expectations10/15- Goldman Sachs Profit Climbs on Strong Trading Operations- Citigroup Swings to Narrow Profit on Exchange Gain- Charges Hit Nokia, but Mobile Outlook Looks Brighter- Southwest Airlines Narrows Loss to $16 Million- J.P. Morgan Sees Earnings Soar: Quarterly Profit Leaps to $3.59 Billion, butConsumer Woes Persist

Page 8: 09/11 RITE Report · Asset/Risk RITE Report Combining Economic, Political, Technical Analysis Factors for Prognostication of Economic and Market Direction and Risk Analysis The Purpose

- LG Display's Net Nearly Doubles- Experian Expects Margins to Steady As It Pushes Growth10/16- Google Says Internet Advertising Picked Up Steam in Third Quarter- IBM Net Rises 14%, Topping Forecast: As Sales Slumped, Move to Higher-Margin Services and Software, Cost Cuts Kicked In- AMD Posts Smaller Loss Than Forecast: ...reported a narrower net loss thanexpected in the third quarter, benefiting from a rebounding PC market that alsoaided rival Intel Corp.- Nokia Sags on Venture, but Outlook Picks Up: Charges hit results, but mobile-phone maker raises outlook- Chip Maker Elpida Expects an Operating Profit- Remy Sales Fall Slightly: ...beat forecasts Thursday with better-than-expectedfiscal first-half revenue and reassured investors that it isn't in breach of bankingconvenants, sending the French spirits company's share price sharply higher.10/19- Apple Profit Surges on iPhone Sales- Eaton Posts Lower Profit but Raises Outlook- ABB Expects $1 Billion Profit- William Hill Sees Margins Bouncing Back- India's TCS Posts 29% Rise in Profit 10/20- Caterpillar's Profit Falls 53%, but the company said it likely has seen the bottomin sales as dealers have slashed inventories during the economic downturn.The heavy-equipment maker's earnings results also blew past Wall Streetexpectations. Caterpillar shares jumped 5.2% to $60.88 in premarket tradingTuesday.- Pfizer Profit Jumps Despite Drop in Sales- DuPont Profit Jumps 11% on Cost Cuts- BlackRock Net Rises 46% Amid Gain, Cost Controls- UnitedHealth Profit Rises 13%, Aided by Cost Controls- UAL Reduces Third-Quarter Loss: Results for the parent of United Airlines beatanalysts' predictions- Lockheed Profit Rises as Sales Climb- Coach Profit Falls, but Sales Rise- Lexmark Profit Slumps, Expects 4th-Quarter Growth: profit fell 73% onrestructuring costs as the printer maker reported core results far better than thecompany's downbeat forecast on stronger-than-expected demand.- Samsung SDI's Net Rises 48%

Page 9: 09/11 RITE Report · Asset/Risk RITE Report Combining Economic, Political, Technical Analysis Factors for Prognostication of Economic and Market Direction and Risk Analysis The Purpose

- Hankook Tire Swings to Profit- Daimler Results Boost Shares- Hasbro Offers Optimism as Profit Rises 8.8%10/21- Wells Net Rises Despite Loan Losses- Lilly Swings to $941.8 Million Profit- Morgan Stanley Posts Profit, Revenue Falls Sharply- US Bancorp's Profit Rises 4.7% on Higher Revenue, Fewer Charges- Freeport McMoRan's Profit Jumps- Deutsche Bank Profit Jumps- Cadbury's Strong Sales Bolster Takeover Defense- Altria Profit Edges Up as Cigarette Volumes Fall- Hudson City Earnings Rise 11%- Lower Costs Buoy Piper Jaffray- Elan Swings to a Profit as Tysabri Sales Rise- Nanya Technology, Inotera Post Narrower Losses: in a sign that memory-chipmarket conditions are improving.- LG Electronics' Net Profit Soars- Pearson Raises Guidance10/22- BHP Posts Record Output, Remains Cautious- EBay Sees Turnaround Efforts Start to Pay Off- Altria Net Gets Bump on Price Rise10/23- Lotte Shopping's Profit Jumps 19%- BSkyB's Net Profit Soars as More Britons Stay Home- Dow Chemical's Net Soars 86% on Divestiture Gains- Apollo Pulls Off a Turnaround With Funds- PNC Financial Earnings Soar: Conservative Lending Helps Pittsburgh RegionalOutperform Rivals- Amazon Lights Up E-Commerce Holiday Outlook- Hyundai Profit Soars on Strong Demand- Korean Car Maker says Market Share Rose to 5.5% Globally- AU Optronics' Net Jumps Eightfold- Merck Profit Jumps as Sales Inch Up- AmEx Chief Sees Reason for Hope, Cautiously: a barometer of affluentconsumer and corporate spending patterns, reported better-than-expected earningsand expressed confidence that the recession is ending even as credit-card

Page 10: 09/11 RITE Report · Asset/Risk RITE Report Combining Economic, Political, Technical Analysis Factors for Prognostication of Economic and Market Direction and Risk Analysis The Purpose

delinquencies and defaults remain at unusually high levels- Credit Suisse Joins Rivals on Street in Big Profit- Debenhams, Arcadia Earnings Rise; Outlook Still Murky10/24- Profit Surges at Maruti10/26- Ranbaxy Swings to Profit- Scania Results Beat Expectations- Chi Mei Swings to Profit on Record Shipments- Marvell Tech Raises Outlook- Electrolux's Net Nearly Doubles- Lupin Net Profit Up 39% on Overseas Sales10/27- Daimler Posts First Profit of 2009- IAC/Interactive Swings to Profit- Honda Earnings Beat Expectations- L-3 Earnings Rise 19%; Textron Barely Posts a Profit- Wipro Profit Rises 21%- Yahoo Japan Posts 13% Net Profit Gain- Reliance Natural Resources Profit Up 5%- Tata Motors' Net Doubles as Sales Rise10/28- BP Results Indicate Revamp Is Bearing Fruit: The results show how the outlookis beginning to brighten for the Western oil giants.- Nordea's Net Beats Expectations- Coca-Cola Enterprises Profit Rises- Glaxo's Net Surges on Emerging Markets- General Dynamics Raises Forecast Despite Drop in Profit- Nomura Swings to Profit- Lazard Swings to a Profit; Revenue Rises 1.5%- Jones Apparel Profit Rises 11% on Cost Cuts, Margin Gains- ACC Profit Up 60% on Lower Fuel Costs; Beats Forecast- UMC Swings to Profit on Rising Demand- ArcelorMittal Results Beat Expectations- Heineken Lifts Full-Year Forecast- Hexaware Profit Jumps Threefold- OCBC Reports 12% Net Profit Gain- Cost Cuts Lift TeliaSonera Results

Page 11: 09/11 RITE Report · Asset/Risk RITE Report Combining Economic, Political, Technical Analysis Factors for Prognostication of Economic and Market Direction and Risk Analysis The Purpose

- Goodyear's Third-Quarter Earnings Double10/29- AstraZeneca Settles Seroquel Probe,Net Profit Jumps- Colgate Profit Climbs- Motorola Swings to Profit- AutoNation Swings to Profit- CME Group Profit Rises 20% in Third Quarter- Moody's Raises Forecast- Cost Cuts Help Lift ABB's Net- Deutsche Bank's Net Profit Soars- Newmont Mining Profit More Than Doubles- Sharp Returns to Profit as TV Demand Grows- OfficeMax Swings to Profit- Mahindra Posts Record Quarterly Profit- Aetna Earnings Rise 18%, Claims Costs Increase- TSMC Result Shows Signs of Improvement- Telenor Profit Rises; on Track for India Launch- In Reversal of Fortune, AIG Recoups Collateral- Aabar's Net Surges on Daimler Stake- Samsung Profit More Than Triples10/30- Indian Oil Swings to Profit on Inventory Gains- Strong Yen Slows Japanese Drug Firms' Recovery: Three of Japan's toppharmaceutical companies reported profit gains following aggressive acquisitions,but the strong yen damped their earnings recovery.- Sanofi Expects Swine-Flu Vaccine to Boost Sales- Acer, Quanta Post Contrasting Results: Acer Inc. and Quanta Computer Inc.reported contrasting third-quarter earnings, but both Taiwanese personal computermakers gave optimistic forecasts for shipments in 2010. The two companies expectcorporate PC demand to improve following the launch of Microsoft Corp.'sWindows 7 operating system in October.- ICICI Bank Profit Up 3%- Toshiba Profit Boosted by Cost Cuts and Chip Demand- Bharti Profit Up 13.4%- UOB Defies Exepectations With 5.3% Profit Growth- Moody's Boosted by New Debt Issuance- Deutsche Bank Extends Profit String- Sinopec Profit More Than Doubles on Improved Chinese Oil Demand, Pricing

Page 12: 09/11 RITE Report · Asset/Risk RITE Report Combining Economic, Political, Technical Analysis Factors for Prognostication of Economic and Market Direction and Risk Analysis The Purpose

- CME Profit Rises 20%; CEO Likes Options: Sales and Trading Market-ShareGains Aid 2009 Recovery- ICBC, Bank of China Profits Gain- MoneyGram Loss Slims as Sales Rise- Washington Post's Profit Rises10/31- Cummins Issues Warning - reported better-than-expected third-quarter earnings,but warned that 2010 would be another difficult year for the diesel-engine maker,especially in the advanced economies of North America and Europe where it facescontinued head winds.- Sony Swings to Loss, Lifts Outlook Loss - extensive cost-cutting efforts arehelping offset continued soft consumer demand and a strong yen, leading to asmaller-than-expected loss for its fiscal second quarter and an improved outlookfor its fiscal year.

Total of Positive Corporate News Snippets = 149

Month of Snippets % Positive Snippets % of Negative SnippetsMarch 09 5% or less Approx. 95% or moreApril 09 35 65May 09 55 45June 09 56 44July 09 44 56August 09 41 59September 09 51 49October 09 57 43

2 & 3) Political Risk & Macro Economic Events/News

A) Negative Wall Street Journal Economic and General Business Data Snippets

Page 13: 09/11 RITE Report · Asset/Risk RITE Report Combining Economic, Political, Technical Analysis Factors for Prognostication of Economic and Market Direction and Risk Analysis The Purpose

10/02- Jobs Cuts Unexpectedly Accelerate: Employers eliminated more jobs thanexpected last month as the unemployment rate climbed to 9.8%, another sign that arapid recovery in the labor market is unlikely.- Cruel September for Car Makers: U.S. auto sales fell 23% in September- Recovery Fears Rise as U.K. Manufacturing Falls- Personal Bankruptcy Filings Soar10/03- FDIC Seizes Three Banks, Taking Tally For Year to 98- Jobs Data Cloud Recovery10/06- Apartment Glut Expands: Vacancy Rate Rises to 7.8% as Unemployment DentsDemand; Monthly Rents Slip- Weak U.K. Manufacturing Data Suggest Fragile Recovery10/07- Fed Frets About Commercial Real Estate: With Banks Slow to Take Losses,Fears of a Residential-Bust Repeat; 'More Pain Likely Lies Ahead'- Office Rents Dive as Vacancies Rise- Margin Call: Profitability Views Seem Off10/09- Scarred Job Market Expected to Weigh on Economy- Drought of Credit Hampers Recovery- Economic Data Underscore Slow Euro-Zone Recovery10/13- China's Weak Steel-Demand Forecast Raises Eyebrows10/14- Experian Says U.K. Credit Market Remains Weak- Retail Sales Drop on Fall in Autos10/15- Euro-Zone Consumer Prices Fall10/19- Home Builders' Confidence Drops- Luxury-Goods Sales Still Soft, Recovery Unlikely Before 201110/20- Gartner Eases Forecast for IT Decline: Research firm eased its projection for howmuch information-technology spending will fall this year, though it still expects arecord decline.- Employers Hold Off on Hiring

Page 14: 09/11 RITE Report · Asset/Risk RITE Report Combining Economic, Political, Technical Analysis Factors for Prognostication of Economic and Market Direction and Risk Analysis The Purpose

- Recovery Awaits Signs Of Demand10/21- States Post Widespread Job Losses- Mixed U.K. Stimulus Signals10/23- Freddie Sees Rise in Delinquencies10/24- U.K. Economy Continues to Shrink: Third Quarter's 0.4% Contraction ReflectsBritain's Sluggish Pace Amid Euro Zone's Fitful Recovery- Trade Data Underscore Weakness of Recovery10/27- Political Uncertainty Puts Freeze on Small Businesses: The economic contractionis of course the prime force driving companies to lay off workers. But a health-careoverhaul grinding through Congress could bring unknown new obligations toinsure employees. Bush-era tax cuts are set to end next year, and their fate isunclear. Legislation aimed at tackling climate change might raise businesses'energy costs. Meanwhile, a bill aimed at increasing transportation spending isstalled.- Euro-Zone Private Lending Falls10/29- Moody's Downgrades Portugal, Puts Greece on Review10/30- Look Ahead for Corporate Profit Growth: The third quarter marked a return togrowth for the U.S. economy, but not a return to profit growth for most U.S.companies. Sure, most corporations exceeded Wall Street's beaten-downexpectations. But on an absolute basis—compared to last year's thirdquarter—corporate earnings are poised to fall for a ninth straight quarter, a recordlosing streak, as companies continue to shed workers, businesses and revenue inresponse to the worst downturn since the 1930s.- Federal Home Loan Banks Post Losses: Five of the 12 regional Federal HomeLoan Banks reported losses for the third quarter, reflecting further write-downs onmortgage-backed securities- Consumer Spending Tumbles- Consumers Unlikely to Keep Pace: With Jobs Scarce, Eyes Turn to Exports andBusiness Investment to Drive Growth- Stimulus Fueled Much of Expansion- European Consumers, Leaders Remain Cautious as Job Losses Rise- Slump Sinks Visa Program

Page 15: 09/11 RITE Report · Asset/Risk RITE Report Combining Economic, Political, Technical Analysis Factors for Prognostication of Economic and Market Direction and Risk Analysis The Purpose

Total of Negative General Business and Economic News Snippets = 38

B) Positive Economic and General Business News Snippets

10/01- Job Losses in U.S. Continue to Slow- Consumer Spending Rose in August Sentiment Improves in Japan: BigManufacturers Show Optimism But Still Restrain Spending Plans, Says TankanSurvey- China Manufacturing Index Rises- IMF Raises Mideast Growth Forecast- Data Point to Modest Recovery for Euro Zone- IMF Raises China Growth Forecast10/02- Global Chip Sales Rose 5% in August- More Signs Point to Economic Recovery: An expansion of manufacturingactivity, growth in consumer spending and improved home sales indicatedThursday that the U.S. economy is on the mend.- U.K. Home Prices Rise in September- Japan Unemployment Improves- Sentiment Improves in Japan: Big Manufacturers Show Optimism But StillRestrain Spending Plans, Says Tankan Survey- Glorious Falls in Hong Kong Debut, Powerlong Cuts IPO Size10/05- U.K. Finance Sector Sees Brighter Outlook- Bank Upgrade Lifts Futures: financial stocks benefitting from an upgrade to thesector by analysts at Goldman Sachs.- Declines Moderate in Air-Travel But Prices Don't10/06- Services Sector Expanded in September10/08- Retailers' Same-Store Sales Top Estimates- Data Point to Rebound in International Trade- Jobless Claims Decrease in Latest Week- Australian Jobs Surge- Housing Inventory Declines, But Supply Remains Plentiful10/09

Page 16: 09/11 RITE Report · Asset/Risk RITE Report Combining Economic, Political, Technical Analysis Factors for Prognostication of Economic and Market Direction and Risk Analysis The Purpose

- U.S. Trade Gap Shrinks as Exports Rise- Clouds Break as September Retail Sales Rise: U.S. Stores Report First MonthlyGain in More Than a Year, but Caution Remains- OECD Indicators Point to Economic Recovery- Japan Machinery Orders Creep Up- U.K. Producer Prices Rise in September: Industrial Output in France, Italy RisesMore Than Expected- Trade Shows Promising Growth: South Korea, Taiwan and Brazil Improve, butCurrency Strength, Holiday Demand Cause Worry10/10- Trade Upturn Hints at a Recovery- The Economic Recovery Is Well Underway: New job growth will follow thisyear or in 2010, but new tax burdens could keep unemployment higher than itshould be. (by Brian Wesbury)10/13- Cost Cuts Lift Profits but Hinder Economy- Business Fends Off Tax Hit- Insurers Push Back as Senate Health Vote Nears- Rage at Government for Doing Too Much and Not Enough- Surveys Point to Pickup in the British Economy- Singapore Economy Jumped 14.9% in Quarter: Fast Rebound Causes CentralBank to Revise 2009 Forecast Upward- U.K. Unemployment Rises at Slower Pace10/14- Euro-Zone Industrial Production Keeps Rising10/15- China Drew More Foreign Investment in September10/16- Industrial Output Rises on Autos- Construction Industry Forecast to Rebound in 2010- Dow at 10000 as Crisis Ebbs: A Rapid Recovery From Collapse, but TradersVoice Doubt About Bull's Staying Power- The Credit Crunch Is Being Crossed Out: The widely watched Markit iTraxxCrossover index traded under 500 basis points for the first time since June 2008,underlining the return of confidence.- German Government Raises Economic Outlook- Housing Starts Rise, but Remain Subdued: Wholesale Prices Dropped inSeptember on Lower Energy Costs

Page 17: 09/11 RITE Report · Asset/Risk RITE Report Combining Economic, Political, Technical Analysis Factors for Prognostication of Economic and Market Direction and Risk Analysis The Purpose

10/21- Business Spending Looks Up: Caterpillar, Parker Hannifin Are Latest to PredictRising Sales; Investment Uptick Seen- Bartz Makes Headway Getting Yahoo on Track: company's third-quarter profitsurged, helped by Ms. Bartz's cost-cutting and an investment gain. Revenue fell12% to $1.58 billion from a year ago, but executives indicated that spending onInternet ads was stabilizing, particularly from large marketers.- Housing Starts Post Anemic Rise10/22- Beige Book Sees Stabilization Signals- Japan Trade Surplus Expands10/23- Home Resales Jumped in September- Warehouse Landlords See Bright Spots- Euro-Zone Growth Picks Up Speed:German Business Confidence Hits Year-High- China Likely to Taper Stimulus, Focus on Inflation Risks in 2010: The continuedpickup in China's economic growth in the third quarter raises the chances thatBeijing will scale back its stimulus policies next year, as it turns its attentiontoward inflation risks.- U.S. Manufacturing Productivity Jumps10/24- Microsoft Feeds Hopes for a Recover: Profit Drops 18%, but Consumer DemandMitigates Weak Business Spendings Weak Business Spending- Tax Credit Fuels Rise in Home Sales10/26- Household Debt Can Hasten Recovery, When It Goes Unpaid10/27- Publicis Calls End to Ad Slump- Home Prices Rose in Most Major Cities in August- CBI Data Paint Brighter Picture of U.K. Retail Sector- South Korean Economy Expands: Third Quarter's 2.9% Growth SparksSpeculation on Timing of Next Rate Increase- U.K. Confidence Among Firms at 18-Month High10/28- Durable-Goods Orders Tick Up- Home Prices Rise, Yet Confidence Fades- Asian Hotels Fill Up10/29

Page 18: 09/11 RITE Report · Asset/Risk RITE Report Combining Economic, Political, Technical Analysis Factors for Prognostication of Economic and Market Direction and Risk Analysis The Purpose

- GDP Expanded 3.5% in 3rd Quarter- Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence Improves: German Unemployment Falls inOctober- Japan Industrial Output Climbs- IMF Raises Asia Growth Forecast- U.K. Housing Market Shows Signs of Recovery- Mixed Data Show Recovery's Rocky Path- Euro-Zone Credit Crunch Eases Slightly10/30- Economy Snaps Long Slump- Singh: India Targeting 10% Growth- U.K. House Prices Post First Annual Increase in 19 Months- Japan Consumer Prices Fall Again- U.S. and China Ease a Range of Trade Restrictions: Beijing Allows Pork Imports,Washington to Let In Chickens, as Joint Commission Resolves Some DisputesBefore Obama Visit

Total of Positive General Business and Economic News Snippets: 74

C) Merger/Acquisitions/Public Offerings Snippets From the Wall Street Journal

10/01- Cisco to Buy Norway's Tandberg for $3 Billion10/03- Education Management, Echo Global Rise in IPOs10/05- Nomura to Raise $4.82 Billion- Aviva to Float Delta Lloyd- Delhaize to Buy BI-LO Assets for $425 Million10/06- Société Générale to Raise Capital- Emerson Electric to Acquire Avocent for $1.2 Billion- Bilfinger Berger to Buy MCE Group- GrainCorp to Buy United Malt Holdings10/07- Santander Raises $8.05 Billion in Brazil IPO10/09

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- Occidental to Buy Phibro From Citi10/12- Onyx Pharmaceuticals to Acquire Proteolix10/13- AIG Sells Taiwan Unit for $2.15 Billion- Cisco to Purchase Starent for $2.9 Billion10/14- Mazda Sets Price for Share Offering- KKR Invests in Chinese Lender10/15- Siemens Buys Israel's Solel10/17- China Real Estate Rises 18% in IPO: Database Firm Sells 18 Million ADRs AfterRailAmerica's Tepid Debut10/19- Morgan Stanley Confirms Sale of Unit to Invesco in $1.5 Billion Deal10/20- Sprint to Buy iPCS for $426 Million- Deutsche Bank to Buy ABN Amro Assets- Adecco Buys MPS for $1.3 Billion10/22- GIP Adds Gatwick to Its Portfolio: The $2.47 Billion Investment Signals End ofFund's London Ambitions10/28- CIC, Mongolia Miner Reach Deal

Merger/Acquisition/Public Offerings Snippet Total:

Table of Positive v. Negative General Economic & Business News WithInvestment Banking Snippet Count

Month % NegativeSnippets

% PositiveSnippets

M & A, P/OSnippets

August 09 40% 60% 12September 09 48% 52% 30October 09 34% 66% 24

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D) NEGATIVE OPINION SNIPPETS FROM THE WSJ

12/12- Taking the National Debt Seriously: In 2009 about 40% of income taxes will gotowards debt interest payments. (by L. Kadish)

E) POSITIVE OPINION SNIPPETS FROM THE WSJ

None this month.

4) Technical Analysis

As economic and political information wends its way to investors and theseinvestors assimilate the relevant information transforming it into knowledge that isprioritized, investment decisions are made. Technical Analysis looks to gleanthese informational flows that cause reversals of market trends and establish newtrends.

Technical Analysis Summary

INDICATOR -MONTH OF RITEREPORT

JUNE JULY SEPT OCT NOV.REPORT

TRENDand/or

COMMENT

REAL GDP -1.0% Q2 -1.0% Q2 - 0.7% + 3.5% Improving

UNEMPLOYMENTRATE 9.4% 9.5% 9.4% 9.7% 9.8%

Trend:SteadyUpward;Indicator:Worse;

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INDUSTRIALPRODUCTION -1.1% -0.4 +0.5% +0.8% +0.7

Good rate ofexpansion:Trend Up

PURCHASINGMANAGERSINDEX

42.8 44.8 48.9 52.9 52.6Trend:EstablishedUptrend

RETAIL SALES $340billion

342.1billion

$342.3billion $351.4 billion $344.7

billionBottomformed

CONSUMERSPENDING +1.4%

+0.4 (est'dfrom

graph)+0.2% +0.2% - 1.5% Surprise

Downtick

CONSUMERCONFIDENCE 54.9 49.3 54.1

(August) 53.1 47.7

Down tickbut Basicallyflat sinceMay

HOUSINGSTARTS 532,000 582,000 581,000 598,000 590,000 Flat

EXISTING HOMESALES

4.68million

4.89million

5.24million 5.98 million 5.57

million

Bottomformed andestablishinguptrend.

TRADE DEFICIT $29.16billion

25.96billion(May)

$27.01billion(June)

$31.96 $30.70Possibleuptrendforming

CONFERENCEBOARD LEADINGECONOMICINDICATORS

0.9% 0.6% 103.5/+1.0%

Uptrendestablished

CONFERENCEBOARDCOINCIDENTECONOMICINDEX

0.1% UNCHANGED 99.9/0%Decline hasabated andlevelled off.

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SUMMARY5

IndicatorsPositive

3Indicators

Neutral1

IndicatorDown

10Indicators

Positive2

IndicatorNeutral

8 Positive2 Negative2 Neutral

6 Positive3

Negative3 Neutral

Overall:EconomyAscending;DefiniteRecoveryUnderway

INFLATION/HEDGING NEWS:U.S. DollarCONSUMERPRICES(% change fromprevious year)

-1.3% -1.4% -2.1% +1.5% +0.2% Slight Uptick

PRODUCERPRICES - 5% + 1.8% -6.8% -4.3% -0.6%

Trend:ContinuesDown

INFLATION RATEFROMINFLATIONDATA.COM

-1.28% -1.43% -2.10% -1.48% -1.29% Definitedown trend.

5) Chart of Overall Risk

Scale:0 = Neutral;

+10 = High Opportunity Environment;-10 = Extreme Negative Risk Miasma

EFFORT, RISK,FREEDOM,

KNOWLEDGE/INFOOCTOBER REPORT NOVEMBER REPORT COMMENTS

1) Domestic Political Risk 0 0 Congressional resistance toDems agenda has remained.

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2) Tax Risk 0 0 Resistance to new taxes seemsto be holding.

3) Individual Incentive -Freedom + 3 + 3

Government Regard toProperty and Rule of Lawremains the same.

4) Production of Knowledge + 1 + 1

Schools in the U.S. aredeteriorating and studentsscores are sliding. Decreasedue to ineffectual U.S.education more intent onpolitical and social issues thanintellectual content.

5) Technical Analysis of theU.S. Stock Markets + 9 + 9 Stock Market has established a

definite Bull Market.

6) Corporate Snippets + 6 + 7Positive business newsremains in the headlines at51%

7) General Business &Economic Snippets + 6 + 7

Positive economic andbusiness news snippets remainpositive (52%).

8) Economic Indicators + 8 +6Indicators are 8 positive, 2negative, 2 neutral; DefiniteRecovery Underway

9) Merger/Acquisition Activity +7 + 6 Decrease somewhat from 30 to24

Sum of Total + 40 + 39 Improving

Average of Total 4.44 4.33 Continued StrengtheningUpside Exists

Percentage of EquityCommitment 72.2% 71.6% Levelling off!

6) Summary

(The RITE Report has taken International Political Risk out of the Equity

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Investment considerations and put it into its own Hedging Category.)

EQUITY MARKET HEDGE CONCLUSION: Stocks have leveled off, and thisis now confirmed by the Table of Equity Commitment which fr the first time sinceMarch does not i mprove, and so, it indicates that fast ascendancy that the markethas experienced will abate. The investor is recommended to keep his long positionat approximately 72% of his available investment cash with the rest in interest rateand hedging instruments.

PART 2: HEDGING

1) HEDGING/INFLATION SNIPPETS FROM THE WSJ10/02- Higher Oil Prices Fuel Rise in Euro-Zone Producer Prices10/08The Weak-Dollar Threat to Prosperity: Measured in euros, U.S. per capita GDP isdown 25% since 2000.10/09- IEA Expects Stronger Oil Demand- The Dollar Adrift: A global vote of non-confidence. (Excerpts from a Review &Outlook article) Start with dollar supply, which is entirely a function of America'scentral bank, the Federal Reserve. The Fed has been flooding the world withdollars in the name of preventing a U.S. deflation after last year's panic, and itshows no sign of tightening any time soon. Last week's awful September jobsreport convinced markets that the Fed will keep the money spigot wide open wellinto 2010. And yesterday, Richard Fisher, president of the Dallas Fed and thoughtto be a rare hawk on the Fed's Open Market Committee, chimed in that no one atthe Fed thinks this is the time to raise interest rates. In a storm, the dollar wasthought to be less risky than other investments. But as this overall global riskaversion has ebbed, the risk calculus has turned and the dollar itself has becomemore dangerous to hold than nondollar investments. The more immediatedanger—in the coming months—would be if the fall of the dollar becomes a rout.This could cause a spike in commodity prices, such as oil, that are traded in dollarsand jeopardize the nascent economic recovery10/13- U.K. CPI Sinks to Seven-Year Low

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10/14- Fed Vice Chairman Sees Tamed Inflation Threat- The Message of Dollar Disdain: With U.S. debt set to exceed 100% of GDP in2011, it's no wonder people are looking for alternative ways to preserve wealth. (byJudy Shelton) Unprecedented spending, unending fiscal deficits, unconscionableaccumulations of government debt: These are the trends that are shaping America'sfinancial future. And since loose monetary policy and a weak U.S. dollar are partof the mix, apparently, it's no wonder people around the world are searching for analternative form of money in which to calculate and preserve their own wealth.10/16- Consumer-Price Gains Remain Moderate- The Banking System Is Still Broken: Borrow from the Federal Reserve at zeroand lend to Treasury for a profit. That's some racket. (by Ann Lee): Suchunprecedented actions by the government have led to speculation over wheninflation might get out of control.10/23- Pricing Power Remains Firmly With Buyers10/27- Fed Weighs Shift to Market Signals10/29- A Recovery at Last: But will it solidify into a durable expansion? You can see thepressures in dollar weakness against the euro and other currencies, as well asagainst commodities like gold and oil. If you want to explain $80 a barrel oildespite weak global energy demand, look to the Fed.

2) GLOBAL CATASTROPHE INDEX

MONTH INTERNATIONALPOLITICAL RISK COMMENTS

September 09 - 4 Iran AtomicThreat Exists

October 09 - 5

There is agrowingnumber ofnews stories in

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general thatindicate thatIsrael mustattack thenuclearfacilities ofIran in orderto assure itssurvival. Asthe U.S. isisolatingIsrael, thepotential forretaliation andfor this attackto escalate intoa Mid-Eastwar grows.The keyingredients areall in place:Iran fervor,Israeli needfor selfdefense,presence ofU.S. troops inMiddle East.

November 09 - 5

Theperceptionremains thatIsrael will notallow Iran toaccomplish itsnuclearambitions.

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Equity HedgeRequirements

12.5% of EquityPortfolio

Hedge viaGold or otherPreciousMetals fordownside riskusing eitherBull Spreadsor out rightlong positions.

3) HEDGING SUMMARY

Technical Analysis:a) Oil: In the last month oil has shot up from the low $70's and is not playing withthe $80 mark further indicating a bull market due to either inflation concersn orincreased demand or both. It is a good play to be for investors.b) Gold: This metal continues it ascent and rapidly which it a combination ofinflation and international concerns. Good place for the readers of this report tohedge your dollar denominated assets.c) The U.S. Dollar: As per usual this report continues to predict the descent of thisindex and the realtive value of the U.S. Dollar. Since last month this index asdescended again and we predict this will still continue as the money supply inabsolute terms still increases and the Federal Reserve shows no signs of reversingits money supply course. Hedge your portfolios against further erosion of yourU.S. Dollar denominated assets. Use bear spreads on this index to accomplish this.

U.S. DOLLAR HEDGE CONCLUSION:

Look to the above snippets from the WSJ regarding inflation risks and the value ofthe U.S. Dollar: Thus, this newsletter emphatically continues to recommend one ofthe various bear hedges to be placed on 15% of the U.S. Dollar value of yourportfolio using the U.S. Dollar Index or a suitable commodity such as gold._________________

For Your Reference:

FUTURES BROKER: If you would like a consultation with a Hedging Instruments

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Trader to effectuate some of the above recommendations, contact Rick Barney at(703) 992-8845.

CUSTOM RESEARCH: Please note that custom economic and/or investmentresearch is available on request.

SELF-ADVERTISEMENT BLURB: Chris Angle is the author of:

The Nature of Aesthetics - 978-0-9661126-4-1Defining Ethics Good & Evil - 978-0-9661126-5-8Truth and the Nature of Decisions - 978-0-9661126-6-5The Philosophical Equations of Economics - 978-0-9661126-3-4

These books may be viewed at: www.philosophypublishing.com

DISCLAIMERS/CAVEATS:

1) Past performance is not indicative of future results.

2) Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitablefor all investors. Carefully consider the suitability based upon your experience,objectives, financial resources and other relevant circumstances. Alternativeinvestment products, including hedge funds and managed futures, involve a highdegree of risk. Alternative investment performance can be volatile and are notsuitable for all investors. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of hisor her investment.

3) This communication does not constitute an offer to sell, or a solicitation of anoffer to buy or sell, any products named herein, commodities interests, futurescontracts, or securities, and is intended for informational purposes only. Any offerfor any investment product will be made solely by the appropriate disclosuredocument or private placement memorandum.

4) The RITE Report has been prepared either from publicly available informationor reflects the opinions of the author. Information contained in this report isbelieved to be reliable but may not have been independently verified. The RITEReport does not guaranty, represent or warrant, or accept any responsibility orliability as to, the accuracy, completeness or appropriateness of the information

Page 29: 09/11 RITE Report · Asset/Risk RITE Report Combining Economic, Political, Technical Analysis Factors for Prognostication of Economic and Market Direction and Risk Analysis The Purpose

contained herein. At no time will the RITE Report make specificrecommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller orviewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. Informationcontained herein may not be current due to, among other things, changes in thefinancial markets or economic environment. Opinions reflected in the materialsare subject to change without notice. Forecasts represent estimates. Informationprovided by the RITE Report is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed.Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of thefact that error and uncertainty are part of any forecasting effort. Investing carriesrisk of losses. Information provided by the RITE Report does not constitute, andshould not be used as a substitute for tax, legal, or investment advice. Please askyour broker or your advisor to explain all risks before making any trading andinvesting decisions.