0_flood protection and management-pilarczyk
TRANSCRIPT
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Flood protection & Flood Management New Concepts for Security
Dutch examples
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Global philosophy for flood protection and management in the NetherlandsKrystian PilarczykHydraulic Engineering InstituteRijkswaterstaat (Public Works Dpt.)Delft, the Netherlands
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Short content of PP presentation
1. Introduction2. Brief history3. Basic principles of flood protection: Organisational and legal aspects Present approach and Safety Standards Future approach; ring dikes, probability of flooding/inundation and risk assessment; Space for rivers; Detention areas4. Technical approach of design and maintenance 5. Safety Assessment/monitoring and Maintenance 6. ConclusionsReferences and Bibliography (www.tawinfo.nl)
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DevelopmentsLast decades: increase economical values and population in coastal/riverine areasLarge Disasters (Floods, Traffic, Planes, Fire, Earthquakes, Mud flow, etc.)Future developments: climate change, sea-level rising, soil subsidence, air/water pollutionBas Jonkman
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We can not avoid the floodsbut we can/must minimize the consequences (victims, economical damage) Disaster 1953 in the NetherlandsWhy is flood defence important ?
Road and Hydraulic Engineering Devision, Delft
Flood events:
flood event
damage
victims
Sea 1953
( 1.500 106
1835
Meuse 1993
( 250 106
----
Rhine 1995
( 500 106
----
Meuse 1995
( 165 106
----
Rainfall 1998
( 1.100 106
----
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Principal measuresWatersystem in NL
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Watersystem & Rainfall problems in NLSeaStoragelandStorageStorageRiverPolderwaterwaterwater
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The history of flood defencefloodingmounds (higher grounds to escape)dikessettlementdrainage systems storm-surge barriersoccupation floodplains (warning systems, evacuation plans and actions)alternatives (i.e. floating objects/houses)
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Historical developments: Dutch history and (possible) future(subsidence as an extreme event !?)levelexpectedSea-level riseTime (year)subsidence- low-lying country -The Netherlands
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highest flood level in 1876
metres above Datum
8
6
4
2
0
dyke reinforcementin the 1990s
dyke level raising in the 20th century
dyke in 1880
dyke in 1876
dyke in 1579
Dyke construction over the centuries
clay
sand
berm
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Examples of defence systems in NL
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Dutch main rivers
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General hydraulic boundary conditions
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external driving forces: climate, Rhine, sea level, landsubsidencescenario T 0C Qrijn sea level rise trend +1 0C 16.000 m3/s + 20cmworse +2 0C 18.000 m3/s + 60cmextreme +4 0C 20.000 m3/s + 110cmland subsidence 2100 setting of peat and clay tectonics mining0.1 - 0.8 mDesign discharges of the RheinuncertaintiesEven 18 000 or 20 000 m3/s ?
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Flood protection in NLsome factsSafety Standards NLFlood Protection Law (1996): safety levels (probabilities) every 5 years, evaluation boundary conditions ( design discharges) and safety2001, 2006: monitoring roundsRhine design discharge higher4e Policy Document on Water Management: heigthening dikes only a last resort. Instead: make room for rivers
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Threatens & Loadingsalso animals
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Flooding is one of the main causes of loss of life and loss of property and income in the world and, thus a major drain on welfare of people and an important cause of poverty
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Extreme long dry period may induce failure of dikes and innundationalsoIn the night from 25 to 26 august 2003 the regional dikes near Wilnis collapsed.
Also extreme event !
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Our contribution to problems(urbanisation)City of Arnhem todayCity of Arnhem in 1830
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The two main items in flood protection are:
designing and construction a flood defence system (physical infrastructure)
designing and building a flood management system (organisation, information and tools) Natural system Infrastructure: dikes, dams, etc. Observation & communication system Professional system Users & beneficiariesWith following interactions:
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Flood defence systemphysical system to deal with river discharges and/or storm surges up to a given frequency with limited consequences
dike (height, stability)polder (spatial planning, local measures)river bed (widening floodplain, reducing resistance, deepening channels, etc)river system (reforestation, retention+nature, storage reservoirs, flooding sequence)
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Flood management systemobservations (rainfall, run off, discharges)prediction (short term, long term, models)communication (all kinds)decision (operation storage, retention, flood sequence, evacuation, emergency measures)implementationevaluation
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Five systems have to interact:natural systeminfrastructure, dikes, dams, etc,observation & communication systemprofessional systemusers & beneficiaries
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Some conclusions on flood protection systems:
The technical aspects of the natural systems and the flood defence system are usually well recognisedThe flood management aspects are less well treated (observations, models, professional education, political system/awareness)The building of a flood protection system takes a long time
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Questions from practical engineers and policy makersYou can get any answer you want!How uncertain is the result?What is the real probability?Make subjective part visible!How to deal with expert opinions? I hope that this Seminar will provide some answers on these questions
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A
B
Sheet2
Sheet3
eq(5)
eq(4)
eq(3)
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Developments in water sectordevelopment water supply:sea level risingincrease of fluctuations in river dischargesincrease of fluctuations and intensity of precipitationland subsidencedevelopment water demand:changes in nature areaschanges in urbanizationchanges in agriculturechanges in other forms of land use
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Flood related issuesforecasting flood levels (Flood Early Warning Systems)risk assessment & safety standardsimproving crisis management plansthe relation between spatial planning and flood management (how to prevent development of flood prone areas?)distribution over bifurcations
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Flood Forecastingwater level Rhine at Lobith (border)> 14.00 m and expected to rise above 15.00 m +NAPat least twice a dayfor navigationpopulationflood management
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Prediction of floods and warning systemRhein catchments
_1031573605.doc
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Trends in Flood ManagementFrom water-level probability approach to flooding probability and risk-based approachFrom a dike section to a ring-dike approachFrom flood defence/prevention to flood risk management/living with floods/prevention of disasterFrom dike heightening to making space for waterImportance of preparedness and (early-)warning prediction and disseminationFlood simulation and consequences, Risk assessment and Safety monitoringSustainability, Spatial planning and Legislation
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Risk of floodingProbability of failureStructureOperation/human failureManagementConsequences of failurecasualtieseconomic damageRisk = probability (Pfailure) x consequencesactual1/20 1/501/1001/500future1/1000or moreSafety standardsworldwide
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Reducing Pfailure by :
proper spatial planning (including space for rivers, retention basins, etc)safer dam or dike (including periodical safety assessment of water defences)Reducing consequences :minimize casualties due to proper warning system and evacuation plansreduce damage by proper planning and building/construction regulations
Example:
Risk = probability (Pfailure) x consequences
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Is (continuous) dike heightning a solution ???The NetherlandsConsequences becoming higher and higher: (usually) limited space for dike hightening- landscape- nature-historical values
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Reconstruction/heightening of dikes not (always) the best solution Consequences of flooding might increaseStudies are undertaken on measures to reduce the effects of an increase in discharge peaks of the rivers and sea level rise, in order to maintain safety without hightening dikes, taking into account the interest of nature, landscape and other functions (Space for Rivers& Living with water)
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Future alternativesSpace for riversNature restoriationRetention basins
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Space (room) for RiversReduction of flood levels:
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Effect of measures
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VietnamHouses on pilesFloating hotelsLiving with floods - Alternative use of flood plainsFloating houses
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Floods and Flood Risk in NetherlandsScope (goal) of Flood Risk approach:from present design (permissible) water levels per section- into flood (inundation) probability per dike ring- into flood (inundation) risk per dike ring= (probability x consequences) per dike ringActual approachRisk = (Pfailure) x consequences
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Ring dike approach and examples of dike ringsRisk=probability x consequencesRisk = (Pfailure) x consequences
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Safety StandardsEconomic optimizationRisk = Probability x Consequences
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Safety StandardsDesign frequency
Vietnam, China, etc.1/20 actual1/501/1001/5001/1000
Future; Risk-based approach:probability x consequences (???!!!)
Aspects:Fresh water (rivers)Salt water (sea)Low-lying land or not ?Cities (population)Economic areas (industry)
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However, there are also other failure modesActual (past) design philosophy and minimum profile of river dikesbased on design water level
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Flood (innundation) Riskintegrated approach to water defencesinnundationfailure mechanismshuman failuregeotechnical failureWave attackcoastal erosionetc.g= R L > 1.0
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Present and Future approach/elaborationWater levelsLoad modelsResistance modelsA set of safety margins
Improved load modelsImproved resistance modelsConsequence models Statistical modelsReliability and Risk CalculationsOptimisation/comparison with targets
However, models and data are still insufficient Type of uncertainty:g= R L > 1.0* unpredictability of nature* lack of data, lack of knowledge
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Dike strengthening: not only technical solutions1 = do nothing2 = dike hightning3 = offshore wave dissipation4 = higher foreshore5 = milder outer slope6 = roughness on slope
7 = apply a berm8 = vertical wall on the crest9 = allow larger overtopping; store water behind the dike/pump awayBut also integrated/multifunctional solutions
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Functional conflicts and designlivingtransportnaturehistorical values
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Economic optimalisation (1)Example: Lay-outLongitudinal cross-section(dike heights)riverSection 2Section 1P1 > P2
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Economic optimalisation (2)Example: Lay-outLongitudinal cross-section (dike hights)riverSection 1Section 2Dike heightning:inundation probability decreases Risk increases
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It is an engineering art to find a balance between all functional requirements and economic possibilitiesDesign process
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Overview measures - Technical Ecological Social Economic which must be defined for specific region and project
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Conflict with livingLandscape requirementsGrass matsRoot system
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Conflict of functions; some examplesHistorical values
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Safety assessement
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Safety Assessment vs. maintenance
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New approach and regulations
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DIVISION OF TASKS BETWEEN ADMINISTRATIVE ORGANSconcerning protection against flooding and flood managementStateProvincesMunicipalitiesWater boardsDuring Flood event:
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Road and Hydraulic Engineering Devision, Delft
Monitoring: Module 1
Flood
Prediction
What if: scenarios:flooding: Module 2damage: Module 3evacuation
Information supply
Risk Analysis
HIS
Operational situation
Planning
National
Regional
Road and Hydraulic Engineering Devision, Delft
More structured information is needed:Developing the
Hoogwater Informatie Systeem
Flood Management System
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Example of productsPolicy-making risk assessmentscenarios for extreme events which damage can occurphysical effects of floodsphysical planningensurancesOperational use during floods (i.e. evacuation)HISHighwater Information System(Flood Management System)
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Damage assessmentTwo elements: Economic damage assessmentLife safety assessmentUsed in risk analysisBased on output of flood simulations
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Economic Damage Assessment
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Loss of life estimationMortality estimated as a function of flood- and system characteristics3 areas:breachRapidly risingOther causesCorrection factors:Building qualityEmergency response and rescueShelter: high grounds and buildings
lijnelement
Locatie bres
Effectgebied stroomsnelheden
Hoge stijgsnelheden
Overige oorzaken
Slachtoffers door:
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Flood risk assessmentCombineProbability of floodingFlood simulationDamage assessment
How to present results? (to decision-makers, society)Current project:Veiligheid van Nederland in Kaart (FLORIS) = Safety mapping for NetherlandsFull assessment of failure probabilities multiple dike ringsSpecial attention for hydraulic structuresHow to deal with uncertaintiesFurther development of damage assessmentBasis for ongoing safety discussion
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Bridge betweenResearch and PracticeCountriesState and Public(communication)
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Transfer know-how (technology transfer) Capacity buildingEducationCommunicationPublic awarenessSupplementary items:
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Risk-based design/safety approach is and needs advanced technology !!!!
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(practical) problems vs. economy
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Geotechnical (in-)stability and piping
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Trends in Flood ManagementFrom water-level probability approach to flooding probability and risk-based approachFrom a dike section to a ring-dike approachFrom flood defence/prevention to flood risk management/living with floods/prevention of disasterFrom dike heightening to making space for waterImportance of preparedness and (early-)warning prediction and disseminationFlood simulation and consequences, Risk assessment and Safety monitoringSustainability, Spatial planning and Legislation
In conclusion:
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Questions from practical engineers and policy makersYou can get any answer you want!How uncertain is the result?What is the real probability?Make subjective part visible!How to deal with expert opinions? I hope that this Seminar will provide some answers on these questions
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Conclusive remarksdesign on risk based principlesinherent and epistemological uncertainties expert opinions engineers not trainedcommunication and presentation
Chart4
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Sheet1
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There is no golden receipt against floodsThere is no absolute safety for everCoping with Floods is an international problemWe have to joint the forces and exchange our experienceConclusionsLook also to: www.tawinfo.nlSelect: english, downloads
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www.tawinfo.nl
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We can not avoid the floodsbut we can/must minimize the consequences (victims, economical damage) Conclusion
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Thank you for your attention
www.tawinfo.nl
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The endQuestions and discussion