1 1. context & structure 2. general design constraints 3. methodology & problem statement 4....

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1.Context & Structure 2.General Design Constraints 3.Methodology & Problem Statement 4.Design Solution 5.Conclusions

IST Instituto Superior Técnico (UTL) . IN+ Centro de Estudos em Inovação Tecnologia e Políticas de Desenvolvimento .

IST/ DesignStudio . GALP Service Station of the Future September 2007

Ana Espada Dissertação para a Obtenção do Grau de MestreEngenharia da Concepção

Doutor António Luís Nobre Moreira (Orientador)Mestre Maria João Rodrigues (Co-Orientador)

How to design trends and scenarios on a context of uncertainty?Learning from a Service Station

Ana Espada How to design trends and scenarios on a context of uncertainty? Learning from a Service Station September 2007

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Context Innovation Context

In relevant economic sectors it is observed that:

> Fast changing Innovation Conditions and Technologies

> Design Inspires Innovation

> User as Innovator


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Context Research Problem

What are and what should be the actual design drivers to the conceptual development of the service station of the future?


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Context Research Problem

What are and what should be the actual design drivers to the conceptual development of the service station of the future?

Dissertation Intervention: Design Draft

Product-Design Process

Company Strategy and Business Model

Design Approach

Market Value and ROI

Engineering, Design, Environment, Production, other disciplines...


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Context:

Analyze Background Information;Historical Framework; Theoretical Foundations.

StructureThe main areas of the dissertation

Problem Statement:

Organizational Framework;Research Methodological Approach.

Design Solution:

Scenarios Generation; A disruptive concept that fulfils the user’s expectations.

Design-Constraints Characterization

Data Collection and Structured Specifications

Future Scenario


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StructureMethodology Generic Plan

3.Design ConstraintsHeirarquization

2. ConceptualFramework

4.EthnographyMethodology

5. Scenarios

Construction

A.Context

B.Mobilize

Resource for UncertaintyReduction

C.Attributes

D.

1. UncertaintyFocus Identification

Research Problem Future Scenario

Methodological Approach

Historical Framework

and Trends

Intangible andTangible

Attributes,Interest to

Users

ParticipatoryDesign

Project intoFuture

DESIGN PROCESS UNDER UNCERTAINTY ENVIRONMENT

Context Problem Statement Design Solution

HierarquizationEthnographic


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StructureDesign Constraints hierarquization: Bryan Lawson Model


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Context: service station as an integral part of the city

Oil-retail companies have on mobility systems a “backstage” role, as a battery that feeds energy to the mobility system.

General Design ConstraintsAnalyze Background Information


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General Design Constraints Effects of changes

uncertainty-emphasized environment

Creates simultaneously multiple opportunities:> new business concepts> implications on the physical design of the service station


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General Design Constraints Fuel-retail Business and Service Stations

Until now:car industry and the fuel-retail business influencing

each other and driving innovation

> pillars of the road transportation system (Tester, J. W., et al, MIT Press, 05)

> dependency between engine technology and fuel capabilities

Both industries are expanding, creating a multitude of different evolution paths

New Challenges


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General Design ConstraintsNew-challenges example

> an example of these new challenges is provided by the hydrogen-based mobility options

to modify internal combustion (IC) engines

fuel cells

storage vessels

chemical-based concepts

whichever option will prevail, it will critically influence the way service stations are designed, in particular regarding the provision of fuel


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General Design Constraints Oil Industry actively pursuing new fuel alternatives

> oil-based fuels (gasoline and diesel) remain presently at the basis of the core business

new fuel alternatives for road transportationIncreasingly demanding environmental constraints

+/- radical options under research:

Oil Industry actively pursuing

environmental impactand fuel availability

its perceived economiccompetitiveness

available and developingtechnologies


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General Design ConstraintsMultitude of different evolution paths

Lines of ResearchImproving the properties of

traditional fuels

Synthetic Fuels (particularly obtained from Gas-to-Liquid process)

Biofuels Hydrogen

. Gasoline

. Diesel

. Compressed

Natural Gas

. Liquid

Natural Gas

. Methanol

. Ethanol

. Centralized Production

. Decentralized Production

sulfur/ aromatics

volatility

stringent environmental regulations

new performance- -enhancing additives (gasoline)

25% in carbon emissions relatively to gasoline

Nox emissions

NG leakage (storage)

dense than gasoline: requires a bigger storage area

negative liquefaction temperatures (must be maintained even when the vehicle is not in use)

liquid fuels/ obtained from biomass (agricultural wastes, corn) to transform waste cooking oils (research)

economy-of-scale benefits

e.g. Geothermal sources in Iceland

long distance transportation

production at fuel-retail unit (direct implications on the physical concept of service station)

Cleaner diesel lead

loss of

competitiveness

(efficiency) of

diesel engines in

comparison to

spark IC engines

new specifications

for the car industry

(Tester, J . et al, 2005)

GTL fuels contain

sulfur, aromatics or metals

high cetane number in comparison to

petroleum-derived diesel fuels

reduces emissions when compared to other

fuels

(Tester, J. et al, 2005; Rentech, Inc., 2003)

Currently one of the main targets of EU alternative- -fuel policy

Not a primary energy source

Env. Sustainability depends on the options taken to extract the chemical element (energy sources)

Almost free of impacts, if produced using renewable energy sources

Reforming (associated with fossil fuels, NG) is the process that actually dominates the hydrogen production


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General Design Constraints: Technology Context Road Transportation Trends

Existing Infrastructure is a significant source of resistance to change> a shift in motorization paradigm would imply intensive investment

It is hard to predict which technology will dominate Technology in Development

Electric Vehicles Fuel Cells Hybrid Vehicle Concepts

. Emission-free (electricity production based on renewable energy sources > increase operational costs)

. Battery technology: performance / autonomy limitation due problems / volume and weight penalities

. Proton exchange membrane (PEM) concept is the most adequate to cars (using hydrogen, PEM fuel cells can retrieve efficiencies of about 60%)

. Hydrogen production problems (centralized / descentralized)

. Storage onboard a vehicle problem

. Fuel cell buses are being demonstrated in Europ

(also in Portugal)

. Inumerouse possible technological paths (puts in evidence the difficulty in previewing which will be the prevailing motorization technology)

. Hybrid-carsare already in the market (hight acceptibility from costumers)


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General Design Constraints: Global Energy Context Evolution of Companies Environmental Strategies

Stage 1

environmental regulation and pollution control

Stage 2

environmental consciousness and product responsibility introducing life-cycle thinking: focus strategy on product/ services and minimization of the environmental impact > Life Cycle Assessment tools (flows of energy and materials)

Stage 3

Design for Sustainability emerge - design goals minimizing:> consumption of resources/ emissions/ facilitate product disposal at end-of-life, ideally with good prospects for reuse and recycle

Stage 4

Industrial Ecology (closing loops in industrial ecosystems)> promoting exchange of wastes across industrial sector/ energy cascading utilization: System Oriented


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Number of functional areas has been increasing significantly (1980-2005)

General Design Constraints: Client Context Past/ Present Analysis in terms of the three main Vectors of Sustainability: Planet, People and Profit

while demand is presently still dominated by the core business,

the actual profit comes out from non-fuel, customer-satisfaction, business-areas.


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General Design Constraints: Client Context Effects of changes

middle 1980s the convenience stores became the main source of economic income

point-of-view of fuel-retail companies the convenience stores falls likely a service. Increasingly oil companies are shifting their business strategy from a product-oriented to a service-oriented framework

This uncertainty environment motivated the Portuguese oil retailer, Galp Energia S.A. to search for:

> new solutions leading to product differentiation > market advantage


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General Design Constraints: Client Context Diversification of income sources

The company’s margin related to the retail unit (forecourt Shops), is now higher than the diesel margin.

Profit margins are so low, that differentiation cannot be solely based on fuel variants, as it was common practice until now.


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General Design Constraints: Client Galp Energia Brief

> to have a disruptive concept of future Service Stations

> a flexible design solution (do not induce premature technology lock-in with large investments)


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General Design Constraints: UserRoad Transportation: Social Context Trends

Urban layout and population distribution have a strong influence on the population mobility patterns

> functions provided by cities accommodation, employment, recreation, education and shopping

Movements between urban functions: 45-90 min. per day, about 10-15% of people income (Tester, J. et al, 2005)

Increased flexibility: > (Policy) getting people to use cars less and to switch to bus or train, had relatively little impact in most countries

> (car use) trips for work are now growing less rapidly than those for family/ social purposes

>> leisure is an increasingly important urban function (lower flexibility and

convenience of public transports / people’s safety at leisure activities tend

to occur during night-hours)


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General Design Constraints: UserRoad Transportation: Social Context Trends

75% of population lived in urban areas (2000)

83% of the inhabitants of the more developed countries will be urban dwellers (2030)

The population living in urban areas is expected to rise from:> 73% to 81% at Europe (2000-2030)> 77% to 85% at Northern America (2000-2030)

(UN, 2001)

This urban population growth will impose aggravated problems of pollution, waste of time and energy and lack of space parking availability, which further emphasizes the need to find alternative mobility solutions.


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General Design Constraints: Portuguese General ContextDiversification of income sources

80% of the users visit service stations within their daily commuting activities, on the way from home to the work and vice-versa (APETRO, 2005)

tobacco, newspaper, breakfast, pre-cooked meals in addition to fuels.


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Human-centered design is now accepted by designers without questioning, almost dogmatically

Activity-centered design knowledge is used by the designer in addition to his own understanding of the activities to be performed, based for instance on feedback from previous product-generations, costumers, or from team members

General Design Constraints: Designer PerspectiveHuman-centered design / Activity-centered design

BumerangueModel

Technological and Economical Factors

Human and Environmental

Factors

ProductLife Cycle

semioticbenchmark

ergonomic

technolocy

clientrequirements

(...)

assembly


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Methodological ApproachGeneral Plan

3.Design ConstraintsHeirarquization

2. ConceptualFramework

4.EthnographyMethodology

5. Scenarios

Construction

A.Context

B.Mobilize

Resource for UncertaintyReduction

C.Attributes

D.

1. UncertaintyFocus Identification

Research Problem Future Scenario

Methodological Approach

Historical Framework

and Trends

Intangible andTangible

Attributes,Interest to

Users

ParticipatoryDesign

Project intoFuture

DESIGN PROCESS UNDER UNCERTAINTY ENVIRONMENT

Context Problem Statement Design Solution

HierarquizationEthnographic


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interviews + direct observation

Methodological ApproachEthnographic Methodology

It is structured following the method House of Quality, to translate users’ desires into engineering specifications.

This method helps to examine interactions among design characteristics and their impact on users’ desires, and to project into future.

Constructing Future Scenarios

Learning from people in order to understand their culture and contextualize activities of people’s lives:> descriptions of human social phenomena

Trend analysis leads to: data collection + historical data + market assumption


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Problem StatementMain Function

> Service stations are often located in access-privileged sites > Most cases 24 hour openConvenience = location + time-flexibility + fast-access


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1. how to arrive to a design solution that should be focused on non-fuel functional areas?

2. how to attract customers to these areas, while preserving the objective of enhancement of the fuel-retailing core-business?

Problem StatementResearch issues


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Provide

Mobility; Convenience; Comfort

Proposed Design SolutionVision


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Proposed Design SolutionTwo new functional areas

Mobility Station, rather than Service Stationa renewed urban space able to move people, products and monitoring information.

two new functional areas: 1 Personal Steerage Facility 2 MOBILITY units


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A conceptual exercise 3 scenarios of people’s

aspirations on their everyday life were established

Design ProcessDevelopment of Everyday-life Scenarios


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Scenario 1 has intrinsically associated social concepts that may shape consumer-oriented business strategies of Galp.

> inducing its (potential) costumers to use the service station as a multi-service, meeting point space;

> performing an interfacing, commuting function between mobility systems;

>> introduction of the parking function

> open on a 24 hour basis >> real commodity-mobility platform when

the offer is strongly reduced

Meeting point concept is already being used in an empirical way, motivated by:

>> easiness of identification of the site >> good location >> geographical distribution



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Scenario 2 also points out the benefits of convenient location within the meeting-point concept.

> this kind of location is interesting for business man than for young people

> it illustrates a behavior pattern identified within the participatory-design research: people tend to increasingly use service stations for communication activities

>> use their mobile IT devices (e.g. PDA, laptop, mobile phone)

Puts forward time and unexpected-events factors which may be understood as drivers for enhanced utilization of service stations if commodities such as advanced communication means with good conditions for meetings are provided.



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Scenario 3 is especially intended at pointing-out the difficulties that may be faced by those who want to adhere to alternative mobility schemes.(such as private-car sharing)

> the rigidity associated to car sharing could be surpassed if the service stations, provided an on-site alternative solution.

> service stations are frequently visited on the pendular movements people do on a daily basis, a steerage function would address the need to move everyday products

Individuality and independency still dominates, and tends to continue dominating people’s life as a form of comfort.



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Design SolutionHow to deal with uncertainty inherent to the fuel retail business, in order to minimize risk

The proposed answer to the fundamental problem is:

Shift the strategy from a product-oriented to a product-service-oriented focus – provide for mobility services rather than for fuels. Become a MOBILITY STATION.

Move people, products and information.


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Design SolutionConceptual-exercised tendencies, extrapolated to a final Scenario/Story Telling

9:00

Kate arrives at the Service Station Car Park, ready to live her car and catch the subway to the work.

She whips out her 3G cell phone, and orders her laundry to be delivered to her Galp Personal Steerage Facility.

15:45

Kate decides to browse the web for a microwave oven. She finds a nice bargain at a local shop website and proceeds to buying it online. She orders it be delivered to her Galp Personal Steerage Facility.

18:30

After leaving work, Kate decides to take a stroll and browse some shops near her workplace. She buys 5 outfits in a newly opened fashion store and orders them to be delivered to her Galp Personal Steerage Facility.

19:00

Kate arrives at her car and conveniently stops beside her Galp Personal Steerage Facility, she loads her car with her laundry, microwave oven and clothes… and drives away.


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MOBILITY unit Two different forms

commuting with public transports (collective & shared)

provide accessibility to the mobility forms

transport modes are unavailable

unit contains vehicles based on alternative fuels(better environmental performance than the conventional options)

1.

2.


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MOBILITY unit advantages

1.with the focus on the vehicle, Galp Energia moves away from the high-risk decision process of alternative-fuel lock-in;

2.different vehicles can coexist at a given point in time:

> demonstrating and testing different solutions

3.the new business solution can be implemented incrementally in time,

> from the present day, in which the alternative vehicles will most probably be placed at a technology demonstration-project level

> to a place in the future in which eventually fuels will be just mere costumer-satisfaction items.


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A good example

Technology demonstration-project level

H2-Bicycles (UMA®, 2005) and the associated distribution infrastructure:

> the fuel being used – hydrogen – is obtained elsewhere, even though in the future could be produced within the mobility station.

IST Design Studio, HostIST Design Studio,Zeus® UMA

® Toyota, i-swing


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PSF unit Implementation

The PSF unit will allow for the mobility of products within a customer-comfort framework.

> The implementation of this unit is dependant on the existence of a business dedicated to move the products themselves in short periods of time

> a similar function of that which is provided by already existing fast-delivery service companies > it would be advisable to establish a strategic partnership with one of fast-delivery service companies


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PSF unit Implementation


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Conclusions design problem :: problem approached :: design guidelines :: design solution

Problem approach:

> uncertainty focus Identification and design constraints hierarquization

> ethnographic methodologies

Design guidelines:

> a shift in business paradigm was needed

> service stations would become inclusive to the urban mobility system:

Provide: Mobility, Convenience and Comfort

Design solution:

“The design solution should be focused on non-fuel functional areas and on how to attract customers to these areas, while preserving the objective of enhancement of the core-business”.

“Shift the strategy from a product-oriented to a product-service-oriented focus – provide for mobility services rather than for fuels. Become a MOBILITY STATION. Move people, products and information”.


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Further research

1.

Development of alternative vehicles portfolio, that would allow implementing in practice the concept introduced in this paper. One of such vehicles is the H2-Bicycle, in which development Galp Energia is already engaged.

2.

How to adapt existing fast-delivery service companies to this new mobility paradigm, especially in what concerns the PSF functional unit.


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Preview Mobility Station of the future…

Thanks!

1 1. context & structure 2. general design constraints 3. methodology & problem statement 4....

Documents

design solution

technologies design

general design constraints

context structure

context innovation context

context of uncertainty

actual design drivers

context research problem