1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. © modeling and forecasting electric daily peak loads using abductive networks...
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Modeling And Forecasting Electric Daily Peak Loads Using
Abductive
Networks
Abdel-Aal, RE
ELSEVIER SCI LTD, INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ELECTRICAL POWER
ENERGY SYSTEMS; pp: 133-141; Vol: 28
King Fahd University of Petroleum & Minerals
http://www.kfupm.edu.sa
Summary
Forecasting the daily peak load is important for secure and profitable operation of
modern power utilities. Machine learning techniques including neural networks have
been used for this purpose. This paper proposes the alternative modeling approach of
abductive networks, which offers simpler and more automated model synthesis.
Resulting analytical input-output models automatically select influential inputs, give
better insight and explanations, and allow comparison with other empirical models.
Developed using peak load and extreme temperature data for 5 years and evaluated on
the sixth year, a model forecasts next-day peak loads with an overall mean absolute
percentage error (MAPE) of 2.50%, outperforming neural network models and flat
forecasting for the same data. Two methods are described for forecasting daily peak
loads up to 1 week ahead through iterative use of the next-day model or using seven
dedicated models. Effects; of varying model complexity are considered, and
simplified analytical expressions are derived for the peak load. Proposals are made for
further improving the forecasting accuracy. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Copyright: King Fahd University of Petroleum & Minerals;http://www.kfupm.edu.sa
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