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Eyjafjallajokull volcano plume, April 2010

3Quebec Ice Storm, January 10, 1998

Natural Hazards? What is a Natural Hazard?

Aspects of the physical world that have the potential to cause considerable harm to others.

What is a Natural Disaster?A Natural hazard is activated and causes harm to humans and destroys or damages their communities.

 *Natural disasters around the world have been causing more

deaths and injuries and wiping out more buildings and cultivated land than ever before.

*Disasters occur in those areas of the world that are most heavily population.

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Comparison and Analysis

Any one disaster can be described by analyzing various factors that determine how great an impact it will have on people

This system recognizes six main factors

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Comparison and Analysis1. Frequency

how often is the event likely to happen

2. Duration the length of time the event

lasts

3. Extent Size of area or region affected Town? Continent? Region?

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Comparison and Analysis4. Speed of onset

4. sudden, without warning, over quickly?5. build slowly before a peak period

5. Spatial dispersion area likely to be affected by a

particular event

6. Temporal spacing how hazards and disasters occur in

time; are they random or do they occur within a cycle

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Storm Stories…

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Create a hazard event profile for the remaining hazards. Use the information from the following storm story videos, your brain, and pages 78-79. Also, pass in a brief response (to the three stories). This response should include a short summary of what happened, and a list of the characteristics & effects of the hazard.

1.Flood

2. Tornado

3. Hurricane

Hazard Assessment Evaluate the potential for a hazardous process

Lots of money being made!

Lawyers, geophysicists, geologists, environmental scientists, geographers

Interpret history, simulate process, monitor modern activity, model future event magnitudes, frequency, recurrence intervals

“16% chance of M-7 rupture in California in next 30 years”

Methods of Classification

Calculating human costs Impact measured by:

loss of life (total deaths) number of injuries damage to property (replacement

costs)

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Which hazards are deadliest?

Flooding Earthquakes-tsunamis Hurricanes are next

(All historical records)

Rank Event Location DateDeath Toll

1. Bhola cycloneGanges Delta, East Pakistan, Bangladesh

Nov 13, 1970 400,000+

2. Earthquake (Tangshan) China Jul 28, 1976 255,000+

3. Earthquake & TsunamiIndonesia, Sri Lanka, India, Thailand

Dec 26, 2004 245,000+

4. Earthquake Haiti Jan 2010 225,000+

5. Cyclone Nargis Myanmar May 2008 138,000+

6. Hurricane Gorky Bangladesh Apr 30, 1991 138,000

7. Earthquake Pakistan Oct 8, 2005 88,000

8. Earthquake & Landslide China May , 2008 68,000+

9. Earthquake & Landslide Peru May 31, 1970 66,000

10. Flooding & Mudslides Venezula Dec 15, 1999 50,000

Top 10 Deadliest Natural Disasters in past 50 years

Various sources, incl Wikipedia,

Yellow River flooding in China in 1887, 1931, 1938took up to 2 Million, 4 Million , and 0.9 Million lives

World’s Deadliest Hazards(1947-1980)

Based on data from Abbott, Natural Disasters, 6ed

But, in US and Canada:Most: Severe Weather (Heat, Freezing Rain)

Second most: TornadoThird most: LightningFourth most: Flood

Fifth most: HurricaneEarthquakeLandslide

Snow Avalanche

KBC textbook-Table 1.1

The fatality-location relation (1947-1980)

Why?

Based on data from Abbott, Natural Disasters, 6ed

Canada Natural Disaster FatalitiesDisaster Date Killed

Extreme temp 6-Jul-1936 500

Wind storm Nov-1950 105

Wind storm 15-Oct-1954 83

Slide 29-Apr-1903 76

Wild fire 11-Jul-1911 73

Slide 5-Mar-1910 62

Slide 22-Mar-1915 56

Wild fire 30-Sep-1922 43

Source:"EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database, Université catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium" <2003

Ice Storm 5-Jan-1998 26

Which hazards are costliest?

Hurricanes and typhoons are most costly Earthquakes are next Winter storms

2005 $US Billions

$45 2004 Aug Hurricane Katrina$21 1992 Aug Hurricane Andrew$17 1994 Jan Northridge Earthquake$11 2004 Sep Hurricane Ivan$10 2005 Oct Hurricane Rita$10 2005 Oct Hurricane Wilma$ 8 2004 Aug Hurricane Charley$ 8 1991 Sep Typhoon Mireille (Japan)$ 7 1990 Jan Winter storm Daria (Europe)$ 7 1999 Jan Winter Storm Lothar (Europe)

(Mostly storms)

World’s most CO$TLY Disasters

USA, Japan, Europe…WHY??

Insurance costsBased on data from Abbott, Natural Disasters, 6ed

Jan 12, 2010-M7

Feb 27, 2010-M8.8

Sep 4, 2010- M7.1

What factors control damage?

Haiti (M7) Port-au-Prince (700,000) 230,000 dead $Hundreds of millions damage (little insured)

Chile (M8.8) Santiago (5,300,000) 400 dead $4 to 8 Billion

New Zealand (M7.1) Christchurch (370,000) 0 dead $1.4 Billion

PopulationPopulation densityInfrastructureBuilding codesMagnitude of hazardIntensity of hazardStyle of hazard

Canada’s most costly disasters

Hurricane Juan: $113MCanadians at risk: Our exposure to natural hazardsCanadian Assessment of Natural Hazards ProjectFebruary 2010

Summary of Deaths and Costs

More deaths in densely populated regions More costs in developed regions Globally, floods, earthquakes (+tsunami) and

hurricanes are most deadly, but not for North America

Hurricanes and other storms have caused most damage

There is an increasing trend in the number of deaths and amount of damage

We need to consider the data sources, reliability, and meaning when considering history of disaster costs

Methods of Classification

Strength/size/intensity of event Hurricane system (Saffir Simpson scale)

Tropical depression, tropical storm, category 1-5

Tornadoes (Fujita Scale) Force 1-5

Earthquakes (Moment Magnitude Scale) Scale of 1-9, with 9 being cataclysmic,

worldwide event Epidemic, pandemic

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Methods of Classification

Regional occurrence Hurricane (Atlantic) Typhoon (Pacific rim) Monsoon (Asia, Africa)

Frequency of occurrence Annually? Centenially?

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Disaster Categories

We classify natural disasters by the chief process or sphere in which it operates Ex: Atmosphere, biosphere,

lithosphere This system has three

categories

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Atmospheric Hazards

Cyclonic Storms (hurricane, typhoon, cyclone)

Tornado (twisters, dust devils)Severe Storm (White Juan, Nor’easter)Flooding (heavy rains)Drought (lack of rain, prolonged high

pressure)Wildfire (wind, lightning)Severe Weather (hot/cold) ex: ice

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Biological Hazards

Infectious Disease HIV, H1N1, Bubonic Plague

Parasitic Disease ringworm

Insect Infestation malaria, West Nile virus

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Geological Hazards

Slide (mud, land, rock)Volcanic ActivityEarthquakeAvalancheTsunami (tidal wave)

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Hazards’ Human Costs Every year natural disasters leave…

4,000,000 homeless 46,000 injured 5520 dead

These figures do not include the recent tsunami in Asia (273,000) and Hurricane Katrina (1000)

Source: The International Red Cross

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Vulnerability Vulnerability = susceptibility to injury or

attack

Human vulnerability leads to financial, structural, and human losses.

Natural hazards only occur in inhabited areas A natural disaster in an uninhabited area has little

tangible impact on people

Natural hazards are increasing because of… Population growth (more people) Urbanization (lots of people in small spaces) alteration of the natural environment (manmade

islands)

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Can natural disasters have positive effects?

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Positive Effects natural disasters have beneficial

ecological consequences. rejuvenation of a coniferous forest

months and/or years after fires recharging of groundwater stocks after a

flood).

benefits tend to become apparent months or years after an extreme event

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