1 250 375 1395 628 263 427 242 105 55 75 world trade patterns, 2005 source: adapted from the...
TRANSCRIPT
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1
250
375
1’395
628628
263263427
242
105
55
75
World trade patterns, 2005
Source: Adapted from The Economist, A Survey of Logistics, 17 June 2006, p. 5.Million US dollars
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2
The world’s shifting economic center of gravity
Source: JM Grether and N Mathys (2006), “Is the World’s Economic Center of Gravity Already in Asia?”, mimeo, Univ. of Lausanne
2015
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3
L’avantage comparé: example de base (Ricardo)
ProductivitésEndowments (here, labor
forces)Vin Tissu
Portugal 8 4 5
UK 1 2 20
Postulats
• Deux pays (Portugal et GB)• Deux industries (vin et tissu)• Un facteur de production (travail), • Rendements à l’échelle constants• Pas de coûts de transport• Pas d’intervention gouvernementale• Concurrence parfaite (prix = coût)
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Frontière des possibilités de production: Portugal
Vin
Tissu
40
20
FPP (Frontière des possibilités de production)
Point de consommation en autarcie
Courbe d’indifférence
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FPP de l’Angleterre
Wine
Drape
20
40
FPP
Point de conso en autarcie
Courbe d’indifférenceCourbe d’indifférence
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6
Un équilibre en libre-échange
Production Consumption
Wine Drape Wine Drape
Portugal 40 0 20 20
UK 0 40 20 20
Total 40 40 40 40
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7
The gains from exchange revisited
Indifference curves
Wine
ProductionPossibility
Frontier
Drape
world priceratio
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8
Les gains de la spécialisation
Indifference curves
Wine
ProductionPossibility
FrontierDrape
world priceratio
Productionpoint
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9
Le théorème de Rybszinski
FPP initiale
Acier
Effet des investissements étrangers
Effet de l’immigration
Textile
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10
Digression: La ligne des prix
vente
Achat
vente
Achat
Bien x
Bien y
Ligne des prix
Dotation initiale
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11
Le théorème d’Heckscher-Ohlin
“trade triangle”
steel
drape
Courbe d’indifférence
PPF
Prix relatif sur le marché mondial(tissu moins cher)
hom
e st
eel e
xpor
ts
home drape imports
point de production après l’ajustement structurel
point de conso après l’AS
Prix relatif d’autarcie
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12
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13
Les gains de l’échange (i): équilibre initial
D
D*
P P
S
S*
Pa
P*a
Country F (relatively inefficient)Country H (relatively efficient)
Quantities
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14
P Country H
Pw
Pa
Equilibrium price
Method 1: Equate segments ab and cd
P*a
P* Country F
c d
a b
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15
Home ES
a b c d
ab = cd
Foreign ED*a b c d
Pa
Pa*
Equilibrium price
Method 2
a) Construct excess supply (ES) and excess demand (ED) curves
ab = cd
Export supply
Import demand
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16
Pw
S
D
S*
D*
ESP*a
E=M*
ED*
Equilibrium price, method 2
b) Match the home ES and foreign ED curves on single « world » market
Pa*
Pa
Country H(exporter)
Country F(importer)« World » market
Quantities
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17
AP
(a) Importer country’s domestic market (b) same thing seen on world market
World price
C
EDD
G
B
HF J
I
Kpa
p*
Gains from goods trade
Importer country
consumers’ gain, producers’ loss = neutral
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18
Gains from goods trade
Exporter country
A ES
EF
FD
B
pa
p*
C
E G H
I
World price
(a) Exporter country’s domestic market (b) same thing seen on world market
producers’ gain, consumers’ loss = neutral
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19
Very similar to trade in G&S:
Identical causes: differences in prices (factor rewards)
Identical consequences: some gains, other loose, and there is a net potential gain.
Gains de la mobilité du capital
Point de départ: pas de mobilité
r
K
ra
K
Paiments au capital
Produit marginal du capital
Stock de capital de l’économie
Paiments aux autres facteurs
+ = PIB (égal au PNB qd le capital ne bouge pas)
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20
Deux pays, H bien doté en capital.
Initialement, rH < rF, : le capital va migrer de H vers F
A l’équilibre, le produit marginal du capital est égalisé dans les deux pays.
Gains from capital movements: EBC for H, EIB for F.
rW
rH
rFEI
B
C
A
D G
VH = pFK
VF = p*F*K
Gains de la mobilité du capitalFlux de capitaux vers l’étranger
Stock de capital national (avant sortie de capital)
Stock de capital étranger (avant entrée)
Expansion du stock de capital étranger (à cause de l’entréee)
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21
VH=pFK
VF=p*F*K
Gains from factors trade
GNP vs. GDP, efficiency gain
PNBnational
PNB étranger
PIB national
PIB étranger
Gain d’efficacité du au mouvement des capitaux