1 b metz co2 capture&storage an overvie · 2010-09-25 · non-co2 co2-land use energy-ind rest...

Bert MetzFormer co-Chair IPCC Working Group IIIFormer co Chair IPCC Working Group IIIFellow, European Climate Foundation

University College Dublin, November 24, 2008

What is CCS?Where would it be used?Is it already available?Is there enough storage potential?

h d ?Howmuch does it cost?Howmuch of it do we need and when?Wh t li i d d?What policies are needed?What are the health, safety and environmental risks?What other barriers exists?What other barriers exists?

Source: IPCC Special Report on CO2 Capture and Storage

CO2Separation

Coal Gas

BiomassPower & Heat

N2O2

Post combustion CO2Separation

CO2Separation

Coal Gas

BiomassPower & Heat

N2O2

Post combustion pBiomass

CO2

CO2

Air

Coal Gas

Biomass

Air/O2Steam

ppBiomass

CO2

CO2

Air

Coal Gas

Biomass

Air/O2Steam

Reformer+CO2 Sep CO2

Compression& Dehydration

Power & HeatN2 O2

H2

CO

Pre combustion

Air

Coal

Gasification

Gas, Oil

Reformer+CO2 SepReformer+CO2 Sep CO2

Compression& Dehydration

Power & HeatPower & HeatN2 O2

H2

CO

Pre combustion

Air

Coal

GasificationGasification

Gas, Oil

Air Separation

Power & Heat

N2

O2

CO2

Air

OxyfuelCoal Gas

Biomass

Ai /O

Air Separation

Power & HeatPower & Heat

N2

O2

CO2

Air

OxyfuelCoal Gas

Biomass

Ai /O

Raw material Gas Ammonia Steel

Process +CO2 Sep.CO2Industrial Processes

Coal Gas

Biomass

Air/O2

Raw material Gas Ammonia Steel

Process +CO2 Sep.CO2Industrial Processes

Coal Gas

Biomass

Air/O2

Raw material Gas, Ammonia, SteelRaw material Gas, Ammonia, Steel


Power plant (new)

Thermal efficiency

w/o capture

Thermal efficiency

with capture

Increasedprimary energy per

unit of electricity % % output

%

Pulverized 41 45 30 35 24 40Pulverized Coal

41- 45 30 - 35 24 - 40

NGCC 55 - 58 47 - 50 11 - 22IGCC 38 - 47 31 - 40 14 - 25


Storage prospectivityHighly prospective sedimentary basinsProspective sedimentary basins

Non-prospective sedimentary basins, metamorphic and igneous rock

Data quality and availability vary among regions

Post-combustionOxyfuel

Industrial separation

Transport

Pre-combustiony

combustionseparation

Mineralcarbonation Industrial

utilizationEnhanced Coal Bed Gas and oil

p

Oceanstorage

utilizationMethane

Saline f ti

fields

Enhanced Oil Recovery

Research h

Demonstration h

Econ. Feasible( d )

Mature k t

formations Recovery

phase phase (spec. cond.) market


SRCCS AR4

Need for common methodologystressed

SRCCS AR4

Oil/gasfields 675-900 560- 1170

Unmineable l

3-200 N/Acoal seamsDeep saline formations

1000- 10000 4000+formationsTotal Likely at least

2000Higher than 20002000 2000

Coal/gas:Coal/gas:◦ 0.01 - 0.05 US$/kWh◦ with EOR: 0 00 – 0 03 US$/kWhwith EOR: 0.00 0.03 US$/kWhBiomass:◦ Substantially higher (small scale)Substantially higher (small scale)◦ Co-firing better◦ Negative emissions

Reference Plant with Capture, transport & storage

80

100

MW

h)

EOR

60

80

ricity

($/M EOR

EOR

20

40

t of E

lect

r

0

20

0.5 2.5 4.5 6.5

Cos

t

PC IGCC NGCCPC IGCC NGCCBased on new plants, current technology, bituminous coals and supercritical PC units; Natural gas prices $2.8-4.4/GJ (LHV), coal price ~$1.2/GJ. Other assumptions vary across studies.


Coal/gas power plantsCoal/gas power plants◦ 20 - 270 US$/tCO2 avoided◦ with EOR: 0 – 240 US$/tCO2 avoided

low-end: capture-ready, low transport cost, revenues from storage: ~ 360 MtCO2/yr

Retrofit more expensive“ d “ b h dl

MtCO2/yr

◦ “Capture ready “ important, burt hardlyreduces extra cost

Type of Plant with CCSNGCC Reference Plant PC Reference Plant

Power plant with capture and geological storage

NGCC 40 –90 20 –60

PC 70 –270 30 –70

IGCC 40 220 20 70IGCC 40 –220 20 –70

Power plant with capture and EOR

NGCC 20 –70 0–30

Assumes transport costs of 0–5 US$/tCO2, geological storage costs of 0.6–8.3 US$/tCO2, and t t t f EOR f 10 t 16 US$/tCO

PC 50 –240 10 –40

IGCC 20 –190 0–40

net storage costs for EOR of -10 to -16 US$/tCO2.


CCS component Cost rangeC f 15 75 US$/ CO 20 30%Capture from a power plant

15 - 75 US$/tCO2 net captured

Capture from gas 5 - 55 US$/tCO2 net

20-30% costreductionover next10 yrsp g

processing or ammonia production

2captured

Capture from other 25 - 115 US$/tCO net

10 yrs

Capture from other industrial sources

25 - 115 US$/tCO2 net captured

Transportation 1 - 8 US$/tCO2 transported 250kper 250km

Geological storage 0.5 - 8 US$/tCO2 injectedMonitoring/ verification 0.1-0.3 US$/t CO2Monitoring/ verification 0.1 0.3 US$/t CO2


70,000

80,000

90,000

er y

ear)

MiniCAM

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

sion

s (M

tCO

2 pe

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000Conservation andEnergy Efficiency

Renewable Energy

MESSAGE

-

10,000

20,000

2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Emis

s

Emissions to the atmosphere

20 000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000Nuclear

Coal to GasSubstitution

-

10,000

20,000

2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

CCSEmissions to the atmosphere


Including CCS in climate change mitigation portfolio: 30% or more cost reductionMost scenario studies: role of CCS increases over the course of the century the course of the century Essential if coal to be retained as major energy sourceSubstantial application requires CO2 price > 25‐30 US$/tCO2

G CO l i l 220 ‐ 2,200 GtCO2 cumulatively up to 2100, depending on the baseline scenario, stabilisation level (450 ‐ 750 ppmv), cost assumptionslevel (450 750 ppmv), cost assumptions


Cumulative contribution of mitigation measures 2000-2100For 2

dCumulative contribution of mitigation measures 2000 2100

60007000

degrees

2000300040005000

tCO

2eq Non-CO2

CO2-land useEnergy-ind rest

10000

10002000

) ) b) b) b) ) ) )

Gt gy

CCS

-1000

IMAGE 5.

3 (a)

IMAGE 4.

5 (a)

IMAGE 3.

7 (b)

IMAGE 2.

9 (b)

IMAGE 2.

6 (b)

MES 4.5 (

a)MES 4.

5 (b)

MES 3.2 (

b)

Storagecapacity:

>2000IM IM IM IM IM >2000

Source: IPCC Special Report on CO2 Capture and Storage and IPCC AR4

How many CCS plants and when?

Source: McKinsey

Source: McKinsey

NB “Capture ready” power plants do not make much difference

CCS overall cost journey – reference case €/tonne CO2 abated; rounded to €5; European rollout scenario Ranges for technology / fuel and

onshore / offshore combinations

90

100

Lowest

Highest

(reference cases)

Cost of CO2abatement 90 Regulation?

Carbon market

50

60

70

80

60 50

Carbon market

20

30

40

50

35

45

30

Subsidy

0

10

20

2015 2020 2030

Demonstration Early com- Mature com-

Subsidy

Demonstrationphase (2015)

Early com-mercial phase

(2020+)

Mature com-mercial phase

(2030+)

Source: McKinsey

Health, safety, environment risksIn general: ◦ lack of real data, so comparison with current operationslack of real data, so comparison with current operationsCO2 pipelines: ◦ similar to or lower than those posed by hydrocarbon pipelines Geological storage: ◦ Various trapping mechanisms: the longer it stays the smaller the

risk of releaserisk of release◦ IF appropriate site selection, a monitoring program to detect

problems, a regulatory system, remediation methods to stop or control CO releases if they arise THENcontrol CO2 releases if they arise, THEN

◦ comparable to risks of current activities (natural gas storage, EOR, disposal of acid gas)


Fraction retained assessed Fraction retained“acceptable”

Geological storage(expert

Economicoptimisation:( p

judgement):◦ very likely to

exceed 99% over

optimisation:◦ 90% over 100 yrs◦ 60% over 500yrs

exceed 99% over 100 years, and ◦ is likely to exceed

99% over 1 000Securing low level stabilisation:99% over 1,000

years."Likely" is a probability 66 -90%, "very likely" of 90 to 99%

stabilisation:◦ 99% over 100yrs◦ 95% over 500 yrs90%, very likely of 90 to 99% 95% over 500 yrs

Legal :Si i f ◦ Siting of storage :National legislation for mining, drinking water, etcInternational legislation (oceans floor): adjustments of London Convention being discussed

◦ Liability for leakage:Arrangements needed for long‐term risksg g

◦ EU EmissionsTrading SystemImplications for emissions inventories and accounting accounting: ◦ Issues for emission reporting, Kyoto Protocol compliancePublic accceptancep

IPCC Special Report CO2 Capture and Storage: www.ipcc.ch

Further information: [email protected]

1 b metz co2 capture&storage an overvie · 2010-09-25 · non-co2 co2-land use energy-ind rest...

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