1 bbn decision support technologies practical knowledge-based tools for conflict planning and...
TRANSCRIPT
1BBN Decision Support Technologies
Practical Knowledge-Based Tools for Practical Knowledge-Based Tools for Conflict Planning and Scheduling Conflict Planning and Scheduling
Practical Knowledge-Based Tools for Practical Knowledge-Based Tools for Conflict Planning and Scheduling Conflict Planning and Scheduling
2BBN Decision Support Technologies
Outline
• The challenge
• An overview of the process
• Task Expansion and scheduling
• Domains
• Highlights
3BBN Decision Support Technologies
The Challenge
In preparing for battle I have always found that plans are useless, but
planning is indispensable.Dwight D. Eisenhower
(1890 - 1969)
Retain freedom of action to engage at tactical
standoff, move, and re-engage…exploit enemy
vulnerabilities as opportunities present
themselves ..develop the situation out of contact…shape
the fight and posture maneuver forces from positions of
advantage to defeat the enemy…. engage the enemy at
the time and place of their choosing, and achieve victory
with synchronized combined arms.
Army FCS MNS
Precision Engagement - the Army will need a system of
systems that enables joint forces to locate the objective or
target; provide responsive command and control;
generate the desired effect; assess the level of success;
and retain the flexibility to re-engage with precision when
required. Shaping the battlefield sets the conditions for
success and directly links to decisive operations.
Army Vision 2010
Research and development projects that satisfy
requirements for systems to support specialized
force offensive operations directed against terrorist
activities and group…sustainment and protection of
small military units that are deployed in remote areas
Combating Terrorism
BAA 02-Q-4655 OSD(AT&L)
4BBN Decision Support Technologies
The planning process
High-level tasksMission analysis Expansion and analysis Executable plan
Who, what, when, where? (Situational awareness)
What must be done? (Mission from higher)
Enemy situation and COAs
Specified and implied tasks
Restated mission
The enemy defends vic Hill 782; reinforcing units enroute ETA 091830 Dec
Suspected terrorists are located in room on NW corner of 3rd floor in bldg on Calle Verde
Report of bio agent release at west entrance to Rockefeller Center
5BBN Decision Support Technologies
The planning process
High-level tasksMission analysis Expansion and analysis Executable plan
• The enemy defends vic Hill 782; reinforcing units enroute ETA 091830 Dec
• Suspected terrorists are located on 3rd floor of bldg on Calle Verde
• Report of bio agent release at west entrance to Rockefeller Center
1st Bde conducts main attack on left, 3d Bde supporting attk on right; 2nd Bde follow and support 3rd Bde
Team 3 secure road intersection at CP7 NLT H+0:03; Team 2 enter bldg from roof and clear 3rd floor; Indirect fire set #2 – 2 rounds on TGT 0137 @ H+0:17
NYPD secures 5th Ave between 42nd and 47th; Bio detection teams 1,3, 4 establish safe zone at 42nd & 5th Ave; Triage for contaminated wounded estab at NE corner of NY Public Library
6BBN Decision Support Technologies
The planning process
High-level tasksMission analysis Expansion and analysis Executable plan
• The enemy defends vic Hill 782; reinforcing units enroute ETA 091830 Dec
• Suspected terrorists are located on 3rd floor of bldg on Calle Verde
• Report of bio agent release at west entrance to Rockefeller Center
1st Bde conducts main attack on left, 3d Bde supporting attk on right; 2nd Bde follow and support 3rd Bde Team 3 secure road intersection at CP7 NLT H+0:03; Team 2 enter bldg from roof and clear 3rd floor; Indirect fire set #2 – 2 rounds on TGT 0137 @ H+0:17 NYPD secures 5th Ave between 42nd and 47th; Bio detection teams 1,3, 4 establish safe zone at 42nd & 5th Ave; Triage for contaminated patients estab at NE corner of NY Public Library
• Task expansion algorithm
• Knowledge base
• Physical/rules-based calculations
• Temporal constraints
• Resourcing
• Conflict resolution
7BBN Decision Support Technologies
The planning process
• Task expansion algorithm
• Knowledge base
• Physical/rules-based calculations
• Temporal constraints
• Resourcing
• Conflict resolution
Algorithm Main Flow
1. Choose the next activity to expand.
2. Call this activity’s expansion method to create supporting activities; propagate time constraints among the new activities.
3. Perform resource allocation and scheduling for this activity.
4. If the number of newly-added activities exceeds N, stop and present plan to user on synchronization matrix; else repeat 1-4.
Expansion Method
•Creates supporting activities appropriate to the activity: if traverses a route, infers activities from items found on route (phase lines, other units, obstacles)
•Sets time constraints among the supporting activities
•Sets resource candidates appropriate to the supporting activities
Number crunching
• The distance from Point A to Point B is 3.5 kms. The units move at 25 kmph. They burn X gallons of fuel; it takes Y minutes and they require use of the route for Z period.
•An anti-tank minefield intended to disrupt enemy movement, 100 m x 1,200 m, requires A anti-tank mines, B hours to emplace and C man-hours of labor
Human-in-the-loop (I.e. Interleaved planning) Reasonable so far? Changes? Modifications?Back up – modify – plan again!
8BBN Decision Support Technologies
The planning process
• Task expansion algorithm
• Knowledge base
• Physical/rules-based calculations
• Temporal constraints
• Resourcing
• Conflict resolution
Knowledge Base
Built from SMEs and doctrinal references.
Expansible, flexible, detailed
Tool under development to make KB maintenance and expansion easier, faster, less reliant on contractor support
Intent is a powerful differentiator – the “why” often determines actions and outcomes
Knowledge Base Management Tool
User creates new activities/sub-activities
In many cases, current objects can be modified or re-defined to accommodate minor changes or local preferences and added directly to the KB on-the-fly.
For activities requiring additions to the software, comment screens allow the user to document the desired modifications for the developer to complete off-line.
Build – Test – Build: with practice, one can build a new basic activity in minutes, create an activity in OpenMap and test it in TEE. Check for problems and modify the activity in KBMT in seconds.
9BBN Decision Support Technologies
The planning process
• Task expansion algorithm
• Knowledge base
• Physical/rules-based calculations
• Temporal constraints
• Resourcing
• Conflict resolution
Timing is everything
Event A starts after Event B ends. Event C starts 15 minutes after Event A starts. Event D ends before Event C ends.
The beginning or ending of an activity can be linked to the beginning or end of any other activity.
Time intervals are inserted (or set to zero for simultaneous events) with a range from zero to infinite.
Over-constraining the time relationships can lead to infeasibilities.
Resourcing
Units to perform tasks come from user-defined list of candidates (if present) , otherwise from activity-based list of preferred units
Interfaces exist to import critical data on unit disposition, weapons systems, fuel levels and ammunition stockages from JDCB or other data sources.
Consumption rates adapted from standard Army planning factors to make them activity-based, rather than mission-based.
Adaptable to Equipment Usage Profiles as they become available.
Over-extending resources can lead to infeasibilities.
Impact of logistics on tactics
Resupply at the battalion/task force level is fully modeled. LOGPACs operate between BSA and combat trains.
Logistics becomes a constraining factor as distances increase. This can be turned off to allow focus on the tactical issues separately from the log issues.
Automatically schedules resupply operations, using look ahead capability to avoid dampening momentum.
10BBN Decision Support Technologies
The planning process
• Task expansion algorithm
• Knowledge base
• Physical/rules-based calculations
• Temporal constraints
• Resourcing
• Conflict resolution
Conflict Resolution Modeling
Some type of quick, reliable, easily understood model is required to permit planning to proceed.
Typical operations involve a sequence of engagements for multiple units. Timing for follow-on activities and collateral functions is keyed to the outcome of earlier events.
Example: the amount of time it takes 2d Brigade to seize OBJ SWORD depends on their combat power relative to the enemy. If an earlier fight reduces 2d Brigade’s strength by 12%, that must be factored in. In extreme cases, it can mean the difference between success and failure in later activities.
Users are comfortable with the realities of it. This is only an estimate, meant to allow comparison of various options and to permit forward planning.
Two methods are offered, both of them equation-based. One uses historical factors while the other invokes a method developed with the assistance of BCBL, BCTP and CGSC.
Objective capability is a seamless linkage with a simulation, such as J-MACE, to perform more in-depth analysis and evaluate the brittleness of the plan.
Action-Reaction-Counteraction (A-R-C)
Thinking enemy with independent action.
If we do this, they’ll do that, so we should anticipate and counter with something else.
Example: US captures terrorist leader (action), terrorist groups attempt a “big” kidnapping (to elicit maximum publicity and force cooperation) to obtain release (reaction). What is the appropriate counter-action? One possibility is to predict the most likely targets of the kidnapping and take aggressive action to protect them concurrent with announcing the terrorist’s capture.
Failure to take action carries a consequence, I.e. if you don’t provide adequate force protection, losses usually occur.
11BBN Decision Support Technologies
The planning process
High-level tasksMission analysis Expansion and analysis Executable plan
• The enemy defends vic Hill 782; reinforcing units enroute ETA 091830 Dec
• Suspected terrorists are located on 3rd floor of bldg on Calle Verde
• Report of bio agent release at west entrance to Rockefeller Center
1st Bde conducts main attack on left, 3d Bde supporting attk on right; 2nd Bde follow and support 3rd Bde Team 3 secure road intersection at CP7 NLT H+0:03; Team 2 enter bldg from roof and clear 3rd floor; Indirect fire set #2 – 2 rounds on TGT 0137 @ H+0:17 NYPD secures 5th Ave between 42nd and 47th; Bio detection teams 1,3, 4 establish safe zone at 42nd & 5th Ave; Triage for contaminated patients estab at NE corner of NY Public Library
• Task expansion algorithm• Knowledge base• Physical/rules-based calculations• Temporal constraints• Resourcing• Conflict resolution
• Output synch matrix in text via Excel spreadsheet
• Wide spread publication of unit or team-specific mission orders possible via HTML or PDA-based messaging
• Sharing with other systems facilitated by XML
• Conditions exist to support in-execution re-planning
12BBN Decision Support Technologies
Domains for application
Conventional heavy mechanized forces • First domain modeled• Basis for force-on-force engagements – uses an intelligent, thinking enemy with freedom of action • Most fully documented and largest pool of domain expertise
Domestic response to terrorism • Limited sources for domain knowledge• Modeling of enemy is problematic – isolated events are well bounded but overall campaign is wide-open.• Build-test-build method works well. Rapid prototyping.
Tactical level Special Operations Forces • Much larger set of potential environments• Extend planning down to individual/team level• Reveals the need for an efficient way to capture, save, further explore branches. • Increases the need for a simulation linkage to explore plan sensitivity in more depth.
Future Combat Systems • Similarities to tactical level SOF (dispersed ops, modeling to low level, diverse applications)• New approach for acquiring and engaging• New considerations for protecting, maneuvering forces• Very close in nature to in-execution re-planning; highlights need to build this capability.
Too many interactions to
determine all of the
impacts of changes
without assistance
13BBN Decision Support Technologies
Highlights
• Experiments have shown results comparable to current practice in a fraction of the time
• Knowledge base easily extensible to any operational domain
• With basic KB in place, knowledge base management tools allow individual users to extend or tailor it to unique needs
• User acceptance of results.
• Component of Agile Commander program – interfacing with DaVinci
• Previous integrations:
• Fox GA (DARPA’s Command Post of the Future)
• ICCES (BCBL-L CEP)
• ASAS-Lite (ABCS system, BCBL-H CEP)
• BPV & MCS (CECOM Prairie Warrior)
• Evolving doctrine (evolving DTLOMS)
• Need for modeling of over-the-horizon, stand-off engagements
• Need to explore implications of semi-autonomous operations with concentrated fires
• Need to explore mapping of near-term battle execution to long-term operational goals and objectives
• Better modeling of enemy with comparable evolutionary capabilities.
• Recent advances in planning techniques have set the stage for development of a true in-execution re-planning capability
• Our technology pioneered re-planning with consideration to existing plan with Continuity-Guided Regeneration under the TRAC2ES program
• New visualization techniques are available to focus analysis of “plan vs. actual.”
• Proposal for R&D effort submitted to ARL
14BBN Decision Support Technologies
Back-up Slides
15BBN Decision Support Technologies
Current Practice for Army & Marines
Focus of our effort
Automated
support
Goal:
Wargame 3 friendly COAs against 2 enemy COAs• 6 wargames• 4-5 persons• 1 ½ - 4 hours each
• Extend to any branches & sequels identified in the process
Reality:
Wargame 1 friendly COA in detail against enemy’s most likely COA
Cursory effort for all other COA pairs and for any B&S
Automated
16BBN Decision Support Technologies
Concerns Voiced
Focus of our effort
Automated
support
War is mainly an art, not a science
You’ll get locked into fighting the plan!
Are there better conflict resolution models? (why not use the Army standard?)
How did you get that answer?
I want to use my own planning factors
How do you deal with changing doctrine?
I don’t have time to use a computer
17BBN Decision Support Technologies
Words of Encouragement
Focus of our effort
Automated
support
If the computer could help with the science, it would
free me to focus on the art
With the right displays (and training), we won’t fight the plan
- maybe a cartoon sketch?
There’s not enough time to manually wargame 3 vs 2.
Having the S-2 fight the enemy doesn’t work well
This would be handy when you’re tired, and it’s cold and you’re running on too little sleep
The Rommels and Pattons don’t need this, but…most brigade planners have limited experience
18BBN Decision Support Technologies
Additional comments along the way
“It’s not about my 12 knowns against his 12 knowns. It’s about my 12 knowns against his 6 knowns and his 3 probablys and any number of unknowns.” Armor Lt Col
“Give me tanks to kill and a choice of TacAir, Army attack helos, M1s and TOWs and I know what to do. When there’s an abundance of things to throw at it, I don’t have a problem. It’s when there are more targets than I can take out with my first choice, and now I’m having to juggle too many targets with too few resources; that’s where I need help!” Infantry Colonel
“Guys get locked into thinking 2-dimensionally and they lose every time. They get a 3-to-1 force ratio and suddenly they think that means everything’s okay. They’ve got to think in more directions than ever before. There are more things going on. And it’s only going to get worse as we go to the new doctrine that’s evolving.” Cavalry Lt Col
19BBN Decision Support Technologies
Evolutionary process
Starting guidance• Sun workstation
• Stand alone planner
• MCS plug-in (current Army maneuver C2 system)
• Heavy, mechanized forces
• Concentrate on maneuver (but consider other BOS)
• Traditional force-on-force conflict
• Focus only on the wargaming step.
Current guidance
• Laptop
• Support collaborative planning
(1) DaVinci module; (2) stand-alone capability; (3) MCS plug-in
• Adaptable to light forces, special ops, non-combatants, civil defense ops
• Synchronize combined arms; exploit intel
• Asynchronous warfare, evolving doctrine
• Seamless interoperation with other tools
Identify systems that perform supporting functions best and develop means to work together
COA sketching
Terrain analysis
Current operations tracking
Back-end simulation support
XML
JCDB direct connection
20BBN Decision Support Technologies
Considerations
• System of systems
• Concentrate effects, not forces
• Take advantage of advanced communications, but – still able to act within the plan parameters when comms are spotty
• Opponents are becoming more sophisticated in their use of automation, communications and the internet
21BBN Decision Support Technologies
Building a Course of Action
nuSketch – Northwestern Univ – highly advanced COA tool
OpenMap – open source, DII COE-compliant
Number of means available to enter initial COAs
• nuSketch – most advanced COA drawing tool
available; easy to learn
• FOX GA – creates a range of possible options
• DaVinci – in development; intended to replace BPV
• OpenMap – flexible mapping tool, widely used in DoD
and other govt agencies
22BBN Decision Support Technologies
Notional Special Ops plan
16 units/teams•Robots•TacAir•Helos•Ground elements•Indirect fire sets
Partial synch matrix++ easy to read, familiar format++ portable, flexible-- hard to grasp overall concepts-- temporal relationships unclear-- hard to identify cause & effect
23BBN Decision Support Technologies
TF Falcon
TF Hawk
ISB
drop Team 1
drop Team 2 & 6
drop Team 3 & 4
drop Team 5
AA Whiskey
AA Sierra
Map-based display
TF Falcon
TF Hawk
ISB
AA Whiskey
AA Sierra
TF SnakeSF
RP 7
Map display++ easy to read, familiar format++ temporal and spatial relationships clearer++ visual displays can be expanded with object color, size, shape, rotation, shading, fill, drill-down-- lacks portability-- requires multiple views to communicate time-sequencing-- scaling is an issue, need to zoom in to critical junctures-- hard to identify cause & effect