11

CCOS UpdateNovember 3, 2006 PC Meeting

• Project Status– Completed Projects Results– On-Going Projects Status

• Plan for CCOS Final Phase – Guiding Principles– Available Funds– Timeline– Proposed Project Concepts

22

Project StatusProject Status(Category III and New)(Category III and New)

• Completed 5 projects

• 13 Projects are on-going– Initiated 6 projects in 2005/2006– Completed 1st phase of 4 projects

• Project documentation available on CCOS web page – Completed projects (public access)– On-going projects (PC/TC access)

33

Completed Projects ResultsCompleted Projects Results

• Final Field Data Validation – Determined 98% of data in CCOS database is

valid (III-32)

• Emission Inventory Development– Created unified transportation network now

used in generating modeling inventories (III-3)

44

Completed Projects Results (cont.)Completed Projects Results (cont.)

• Modeling Development and Evaluation– Compared three U.S. EPA recommended models

leading to use of CAMx in 2007 SIP (III-5)– Tested methodology for seasonal modeling using

CMAQ (III-13a); now implementing in CCOS domain (III-13b); methodology may be used in 8-h ozone attainment demonstrations for mid-term SIP

– Compared MM5 meteorology fields with observations (III-23); scientific findings may assist NOAA in improving meteorology models

55

Completed Projects Results (cont.)Completed Projects Results (cont.)

• Modeling Development and Evaluation (cont.)– Improved representation of photolysis processes in

CAMx (III-7)– Improved speed of chemistry solver by 10 fold;

plan to implement into CMAQ (III-30)– Preliminary modeling of September 2000 episode

was unsuccessful (III-24); now investigating possible deficiencies in meteorology model (III-12)

66

Completed Projects Results (cont.)Completed Projects Results (cont.)

• Advanced Data Analysis

– Documented limitations to CMB source apportionment method (III-7), leading to use of alternative (PMF) in on- going project to compare ambient measurements to emission representations for modeling (III-1)

– Developed statistical cluster analysis method (III-7); now using in project to analyze how meteorological and photochemical regimes affected ozone levels during 1996-2005 (N-1)

77

On-Going Projects StatusOn-Going Projects Status

Will provide update on and possibly deliver preliminary products by end of 2006

• Emission Inventory Evaluation– Recommendations for improvements to spatial

and temporal representations of modeling emission estimates (III-33, STI)

– Recommendations for improvements based on comparison of ambient measurements to modeling emission estimates during Summer of 2000 (III-1,STI)

88

On-Going Projects Status (cont.)On-Going Projects Status (cont.)

• Modeling Development and Evaluation – Improved mass conservation module in air

quality models (III-11, GaTech)– Further evaluation of meteorological model

performance (III-23, T&BS)– Meteorological modeling results and

documentation of runs for CCOS episodes (III-25, NOAA)

99

On-Going Projects Status (cont.)On-Going Projects Status (cont.)

• Advanced Data Analysis– Analysis of relationships between changes in

ambient ozone and precursor concentrations and changes in VOC and NOx emissions from 1990 to 2004 (III-9, Blanchard)

– Statistical analysis of data from 1996 to 2005 to identify different meteorological regimes favorable to high ozone concentrations (N-1, UCD)

1010

Plan for CCOS Plan for CCOS Final PhaseFinal Phase

1111

Guiding PrinciplesGuiding Principles

• Consider Funds– Available in short term (expected by March 2007)

– Possibly available in longer term

• Project Objectives– Focus on wrapping up CCOS technical work

• Review existing Category III and new project concepts

– Provide products that may be used for SIP mid-term evaluation

– Prepare summary documents and scientific publications

1212

Available Funds Available Funds Source Amount

(x 1000)

Expected Availability

Financial Report minus Earmarked Funds $1,360 Today

2005 Fund Raising

U.S EPA (FY2006) $370

January 2007

Contracts to be closed $71 March 2007

Subtotal of Funds Available in Short Term $1,801

2006 Fund Raising

Expected U.S. EPA (FY2007)

Expected NOAA (FY2007)

$375

$150

December 2007

Subtotal of Funds Possibly Available in Longer Term

$525

1313

TimelineTimeline(Short Term Funds)(Short Term Funds)

Release RFPs Proposals

to SA

Contracts

End

Mid-Course

SIP Revisions

Final Phase

Plan to PC

Proposals

to PC

Contracts

in Place

Begin Mid-Course

SIP Review

Nov

2006

Jan

2007

Mar

2007

Apr

2007

Jul

2007

Dec

2008

Jan

2009 2011

1414

Proposed Project ConceptsProposed Project Concepts(Short Term Funds)(Short Term Funds)

Proposed Project Estimated Funding

(x1000)

Link Data Analysis and Modeling Efforts (III-10) $100

Refine Conceptual Model (III-19) $100

Integrate CCOS and CRPAQS Findings (III-20) $80

Prepare and Publish CCOS Summary Document, Scientific Papers, Final Synthesis Document and hold CCOS Conference (III-21)

$110

Integration and Synthesis – $390,000

1515

Proposed Project Concepts (cont.)Proposed Project Concepts (cont.)(Short Term Funds)(Short Term Funds)

Emission Inventory Development – $325,000

Proposed Project Estimated Funding

(x1000)

Develop factors to represent seasonal trucking in base year and future CCOS modeling inventories (N3) $325

Improve the temporal and spatial distribution of

on-road motor vehicle emissions on weekend days (N9)

1616

Proposed Project Concepts (cont.)Proposed Project Concepts (cont.)(Short Term Funds)(Short Term Funds)

Model Development and Evaluation – $721,000

Proposed Project Estimated Funding

(x1000)

Augment on-going contract to improve mass conservation module (III-11)

$77

Continue NOAA program (N7) to

- maintain wind profilers and analyze data (FY07, FY08, FY09)

- support continuing seasonal modeling

$384

$150

Reinvestigate September 2000 episode (N12) $80

Provide web access of modeling results $30

1717

Proposed Project Concepts (cont.)Proposed Project Concepts (cont.)(Short Term Funds)(Short Term Funds)

Corroborative Data Analysis – $165,000

Proposed Project Estimated Funding

(x1000)

Technical review and application of corroborative analyses for use in eight hour ozone SIPs

(III-8 Part 1)

$35

Review, develop, and evaluate improved approaches for corroborative analyses

(III-8 Part 2)

$135

1818

Summary of Short Term ProposalSummary of Short Term Proposal

Proposed Project Category Estimated Funding

(x1000)

Integration and Synthesis $390

Emission Inventory Development $325

Model Development and Evaluation $721

Corroborative Analysis $165

Contingency Fund for Additional Work on On-going Projects

$200

TOTAL $1,801

1919

Longer Term ProposalLonger Term Proposal(With Potential Funds From Current Fund Raising)(With Potential Funds From Current Fund Raising)

• The Technical Committee will propose new projects based on results of projects in short term plan