1 citi investment research 2007 citi basic materials symposium 18 th annual chemicals conference...
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Citi Investment ResearchCiti Investment Research
2007 Citi Basic Materials 2007 Citi Basic Materials SymposiumSymposium
1818thth Annual Chemicals Annual Chemicals ConferenceConference
December 4, 2007December 4, 2007
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Olin RepresentativesOlin Representatives
John E. Fischer Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
John L. McIntosh Vice President & President, Chlor-Alkali Products
Larry P. Kromidas Assistant Treasurer & Director, Investor Relations
[email protected](618) 258 - 3206
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Olin VisionOlin Vision
To be a leading Basic Materials company delivering attractive, sustainable shareholder returns
• Being low cost, high quality producer, and #1 or #2 supplier in the markets we serve
• Providing excellent customer service and advanced technological solutions
• Generating returns above the cost of capital over the economic cycle
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Olin Corporate StrategyOlin Corporate Strategy
1. Build on current leadership positions in Chlor-Alkali and Ammunition
• Improve operating efficiency and profitability• Integrate downstream selectively
2. Allocate resources to the businesses that can create the most value
3. Manage financial resources to satisfy legacy liabilities
Total Return to Shareholders in Top Third of S&P Mid Cap 400Return on Capital Employed Over Cost of Capital Through the Cycle
Olin Corporation Goal: Superior Shareholder Returns
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2007 Strategic Actions2007 Strategic ActionsApril Announced that a $100 million pension
contribution and an investment policy change would likely result in no future contributions to the defined benefit pension plan
May Announced agreement to acquire Pioneer Companies for $426 million
August Closed the Pioneer acquisition
October Announced agreement to sell the Metals business for a purchase price of $400 million
November Closed the sale of the Metals business
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The New OlinThe New Olin ($ in millions) Actual 2006 Pro Forma 2006*
Revenue:Chlor Alkali $ 666 $ 1,191Metals 2,112 -Winchester 374 374
Total Revenue $ 3,152 $ 1,565Pre-tax Profit $ 201 $ 253Return on Capital 18.9% 22.3%Total Assets:
Chlor Alkali $ 279 $ 1,037Metals 741 -Winchester 180 237Corporate and Other 436 101
Total Assets $ 1,636 $ 1,375
* The pro forma information above (together with adjustments to reconcile to historical numbers) is from Form 8-K/A filed on 11/02/07, other than pro forma 2006 Total Assets. That information is from our September 2007 Form 10-Q filed on 10/31/07, but excludes assets from Discontinued Operations (Metals).
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• Be the preferred supplier to merchant chlor alkali customers in addition to being the low cost producer
• Goal is to increase the value of the Chlor Alkali Division to Olin Corporation through:– Optimizing capacity utilization– Higher margin downstream products– Cost reduction and financial discipline
Olin’s Chlor Alkali Olin’s Chlor Alkali StrategyStrategy
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Pioneer AcquisitionPioneer Acquisition• Synergistic, bolt-on acquisition that enhances our chlor-
alkali franchise:– #3 chlor-alkali producer in North America
– Enhances geographic coverage
– Improves overall cost position
– #1 in industrial bleach in North America
• Provides the opportunity for low-cost expansion in the largest chlorine consuming region in North America
• Immediately accretive to earnings and remains highly accretive throughout the cycle
• The Olin balance sheet remains strong
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Pioneer AcquisitionPioneer Acquisition(Continued)(Continued)
• Purchase price of $426 million• Expect to realize $20 million in synergies by the end of
Q2 2008, ahead of original schedule, and $35 million annually thereafter
• Synergies will come from logistics, purchasing, operations and SG&A expenses
• St. Gabriel expansion/conversion:– Increases capacity by 49,000 tons
– Reduces energy costs by 29%
– Reduced salt cost with conversion to a brine system
– Low cost expansion opportunity available
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Pioneer Acquisition Moves Pioneer Acquisition Moves Olin Up to #3 Producer Olin Up to #3 Producer
and . . .and . . .
4,780
3,484
1,9921,856
880471
430 371
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Dow Occidental Olin PPG Formosa Georgia Gulf Bayer AG Mexichem
Ch
lori
ne
Cap
ac
ity
(-00
0-
sh
ort
to
ns
)
Diaphragm Membrane Mercury Other
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Pioneer Chlorine Plants
Pioneer Bleach Plants
Olin Corporation
Augusta, GAMcIntosh, AL
Dalhousie, NB
St. Gabriel, LA
Becancour, Quebec
Niagara Falls, NY
-000- of Short TonsChlorine Capacity
McIntosh, AL 401Becancour, Quebec (1) 340Niagara Falls, NY 281Charleston, TN 270St. Gabriel, LA (2) 246McIntosh, AL (50% Sunbelt) 146Henderson, NV 152Augusta, GA 120Dalhousie, NB 36
(1) Pioneer’s Becancour plant has 275,000 short tons Diaphragm and 65,000 short tons Membrane capacity.
(2) Pioneer’s St. Gabriel plant includes the announced 49,000 short tons capacity expansion and conversion to membrane cell.
Source: CMAI.
Santa Fe Springs, CA
Tracy, CA
Tacoma, WA
Total 1,992Charleston, TN
Henderson, NV
. . . Enhances Olin’s . . . Enhances Olin’s Operational and Operational and
Geographical PlatformGeographical Platform
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Olin Is The 3Olin Is The 3rdrd Largest Largest Producer in North Producer in North
AmericaAmerica
Source: CMAI Chlor Alkali Report
• Olin has 1.99 Million tons
ECU Capacity Per Year (1)
(Source: CMAI)
• A $10 / ECU Change
Equates to a $17 Million
Change in Pretax Income
at Full Capacity, or $.15
per share @ 35% tax rate
Dow32%
Occidental22%
PPG12%
Formosa6%
Georgia Gulf3%
Mexichem2%
Bayer2%
Other8%
Olin13%
(1) Includes 50% of SunBelt
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ECU Netback Outlook ECU Netback Outlook • Natural Gas prices and capacity reductions have created a
more favorable long-term price outlook
• $1 change in Natural Gas MMBTU increases the cost of Natural Gas-based producers by $25 to $35/ECU
• Higher 2007 ECU netbacks driven by caustic pricing:
2005 2006 2007 2007 Caustic Netback Netback Netback Announcements
Q1 $485 $590 $500 $40 Com’l/$50 High Grade
Q2 $505 $560 $510 $50Q3 $515 $540 $540 $30Q4 $545 $520 $75
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Capacity RationalizationCapacity RationalizationNorth America Chlor Alkali CapacityNorth America Chlor Alkali Capacity
Reductions Reductions 2000 Through 20052000 Through 2005North America Chlor Alkali CapacityNorth America Chlor Alkali Capacity
Expansions Expansions 2000 Through 20052000 Through 2005
Company LocationShort Tons as
Chlorine
Dow Plaquemine, LA 375,000
Oxy Vinyls LP Deer Park, TX 395,000
Formosa Plastics Baton Rouge, LA 201,000
Pioneer Tacoma, WA 214,000
Atofina Portland, OR 187,000
La Roche Gramercy, LA 198,000
OXY Delaware City, DE 145,000
Holtra Chem Orrington, ME 80,000
Holtra Chem Acme, NC 66,000
Cedar Chem
Georgia Pacific
Vicksburg, MS
(3 locations)
40,000
24,000
Oremet Albany, OR 5,000
Total Reductions 1,930,000
Source: Olin Data
Reductions 1,930,000Expansions (382,000)Net Reductions 1,548,000
Company Location Short Tons as
Chlorine
Vulcan C-A Geismer, LA 210,000
Westlake Calvert City, KY 80,000
SunBelt McIntosh, AL 70,000
Oxy Various Sites 22,000
Total Expansions 382,000
Annual demand growth at 0.8%/Yr = 110,000 Short Tons/Yr
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Announced Capacity ChangesAnnounced Capacity Changes2006 through 20102006 through 2010
North America Chlor Alkali CapacityNorth America Chlor Alkali CapacityAnnounced ReductionsAnnounced Reductions
North America Chlor Alkali CapacityNorth America Chlor Alkali CapacityAnnounced ExpansionsAnnounced Expansions
Company Location
Short Tons as Chlorine
Dow (completed) Ft. Saskatchewan 526,000
St. Anne Chem (completed)
Nackawic, NB 8
Olin (KOH Conv) (completed)
Charleston, TN 110,000
Oxy (KOH Conv) (2008)
Taft, LA 213,000
Pioneer (2009) St. Gabriel, LA 197,000
PPG (completed) Lake Charles, LA 280,000
Total Reductions 1,326,008
Reductions (1,326,008)Expansions 2,057,010Net Expansions 731,002
Company Location
Short Tons as
Chlorine
AV Nackawic (completed)
Nackawic, NB 10
Equachlor (completed)
Longview, WA 88,000
PPG (completed) Lake Charles, LA 280,000
Pioneer (2009) St. Gabriel 246,000
Westlake (2010) Geismar, LA 350,000
Shintech (2008/2009) Plaquemine, LA 543,000
Shintech (2010) Chocolate Bayou, TX 550,000
Total Expansions 2,057,010
Annual demand growth at 0.8%/Yr = 110,000 Short Tons/Yr
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Chlor-Alkali’s Two TierChlor-Alkali’s Two TierBleach Growth StrategyBleach Growth Strategy
• Organic Growth– Bleach expansions at Olin’s four existing chlor-alkali sites
began prior to the Pioneer acquisition
• Acquisitions and Joint Ventures– Pioneer purchase increases bleach output by 130 million
gallons or 95,000 ECU’s annually and adds new geographies
• West Coast
• Canada
– Trinity Joint Venture closed November 2007
• Total Olin bleach output is expected to be 200 million gallons or 146,000 ECU’s per year in 2008
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Winchester ProductsWinchester ProductsProductsProducts End UsesEnd Uses
Winchester ® sporting ammunition -- shot-shells, small caliber centerfire & rimfire ammunition
Hunters & recreational shooters, law enforcement agencies
Small caliber military ammunition
Infantry and mounted weapons
Industrial products -- 8 gauge loads & powder-actuated tool loads
Maintenance applications in power & concrete industries, powder-actuated tools in construction industry
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WinchesterWinchester• Eleven price increases announced since the
beginning of 2004 to offset higher metal prices• Continued increase in metal prices, especially lead,
prompts 5% to 20% price increases effective January 1st by Winchester, Remington and ATK
• Continued expansion of military and law enforcement business in 2007:
1. $18 million US Army order for shotgun shells; 2. $24 million order under General Dynamics
2nd source small caliber ammunition program;3. $27 million .50 caliber US Army order; and4. $54 million FBI award to Olin is the single largest Federal Law Enforcement order in history
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Financial HighlightsFinancial Highlights• Ample liquidity with new five-year lines of credit
totaling over $350 million• Net proceeds from the sale of the Metals business used
to redeem debt, strengthen balance sheet and provide funds for St. Gabriel expansion
• Olin expects contribution from four months of Pioneer ownership in 2007 to exceed full year 2007 Metals contribution excluding LIFO inventory gains
• Continued ECU strength based on caustic pricing• Pioneer synergy realization of $20 million annual run
rate expected by end of Q2 2008– ahead of schedule• Expected Pioneer synergy annual run rate of $35 million
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Financial HighlightsFinancial Highlights(continued)(continued)
• Improved Winchester results:– 69% earnings improvement Q3 ’07 vs. Q3 ’06– 81% higher earnings YTD September ‘07 vs. ‘06
• 2007 effective tax rate expected to be in the 34% to 35% range
• Pension expense expected to be $8 to $12 million lower in 2008 as compared to 2007
• Capital spending levels, net of January sale leaseback transaction, are expected to be $55 to $65 million in 2007 including $12 million for Pioneer operations
• 2008 capital spending is expected to include $120 million for St. Gabriel expansion project
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Investment RationaleInvestment Rationale• Continued strong performance based on:
– Relatively high ECU prices– Pioneer acquisition– Cost reductions, price increases and increased U.S.
military and law enforcement revenue in Winchester• Strong financial discipline• At recent price levels, common stock dividend yield is
approximately 4% • 324th consecutive quarterly common dividend (80+
years) to be paid on December 10th
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Forward-Looking Forward-Looking StatementsStatements
This presentation contains estimates of future performance, which are forward-looking statements and actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements. Some of the factors that could cause actual results to differ are described in the business and outlook sections of Olin’s Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2006 and in Olin’s Third Quarter 2007 Earnings Release. These reports are filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.