1 climate change - university of california, berkeleytraeger/lectures... · risks associated with...
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The Economics of Climate Change – C 175
Climate Change
Impacts
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The Economics of Climate Change – C 175
Source:http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/20.htm
Spring 09 – UC Berkeley – Traeger 2 Climate Change 113
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Crop Yields
The Economics of Climate Change – C 175
Source: IPCC TAR
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Risks Associated With Global Warming
The Economics of Climate Change – C 175
Spring 09 – UC Berkeley – Traeger 1 Climate Change 115
Source:Parry (2001)
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116/51The Economics of Climate Change – C 175
Spring 09 – UC Berkeley – TraegerSources: IPCC (2008)
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The Economics of Climate Change – C 175
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Stern Review (2006) Forecast:
The Economics of Climate Change – C 175
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So what about California?So what about California?
Change in number of days with heatwave conditions occurring in Los A l S F d El C i l i h 6Angeles, Sacramento, Fresno and El Centro in 2070‐2099 relative to the 1961‐1990 average.
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And Skiing ??
The Economics of Climate Change – C 175
Spring 09 – UC Berkeley – Traeger 1 Climate Change 120
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On fires and uncertainty…
The Economics of Climate Change – C 175
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On precipitation and uncertainty…
Emissions Pathways/CA Impacts (2004), Con’t:
Fig 6 Winter (DJF) and summer (JJA) precip change for 2070 2099 relative to 1961 1990 Geographical Fig. 6. Winter (DJF) and summer (JJA) precip. change for 2070‐2099, relative to 1961‐1990. Geographical patterns of precipitation change are consistent across models and scenarios, with the greatest decreases occurring on the northwest coast and along the eastern Central Valley and western Sierras
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The Economics of Climate Change – C 175
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Californian biodiversity:
The number of threatened and endangered species in the state already the largestThe number of threatened and endangered species in the state, already the largest in the contiguous 48 states, could rise significantly due these combined stresses. Extreme events, such as floods, droughts, and wildfires may become more frequent and intensefrequent and intense.
Source: Excerpts from Preparing for Change: Sept. 2002 Report by the California Regional Assessment Group for the US Global Change Research ProgramAssessment Group for the US Global Change Research Program.
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California Climate Risk and Response
Fredrich Kahrl and David Roland‐Holst, Dept Ag and NR Econ Research Paper No. 08102801, UC‐Berkeley, Nov 2008
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The Economics of Climate Change – C 175
Five reasons for concern (IPCC 2007)
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Increased Evidence:Ri k U i d Th d S
The Economics of Climate Change – C 175
Risks to Unique and Threatened Systems
There is new and stronger evidence of observed impacts of climate change on unique and vulnerable systems (such as polar and high mountain communities and ecosystems) with increasing levels high mountain communities and ecosystems), with increasing levels of adverse impacts as temperatures increase further. An increasing risk of species extinction and coral reef damage is projected with higher confidence than in the TAR (Third Assessment Report) with higher confidence than in the TAR (Third Assessment Report) as warming proceeds…
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Increased Evidence:
The Economics of Climate Change – C 175
Risks of Extreme Weather Events
Responses to some recent extreme events reveal higher levels of vulnerability than the TAR There is now higher confidence in the vulnerability than the TAR. There is now higher confidence in the projected increases in droughts, heat waves and floods, as well as their adverse impacts.
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Increased Evidence:
The Economics of Climate Change – C 175
Increased Evidence:Distribution Of Impacts and Vulnerabilities
There are sharp differences across regions and those in the weakest economic position are often the most vulnerable to climate h h d f l b l fchange. There is increasing evidence of greater vulnerability of specific groups such as the poor and elderly not only in developing but also in developed countries. Moreover, there is i d id th t l l tit d d l d l d increased evidence that low‐latitude and less developed areas generally face greater risk, for example in dry areas and megadeltas.
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Increased Evidence:
The Economics of Climate Change – C 175
Increased Evidence:Aggregate Impacts
Compared to the TAR, initial net market‐based benefits from climate change are projected to peak at a lower magnitude of warming while change are projected to peak at a lower magnitude of warming, while damages would be higher for larger magnitudes of warming. The net costs of impacts of increased warming are projected to increase over time.time.
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Increased Evidence on:Ri k f L S l Si l i i
The Economics of Climate Change – C 175
Th i hi h fid th t l b l i t i
Risks of Large‐Scale Singularities
There is high confidence that global warming over many centuries would lead to a sea level rise contribution from thermal expansion alone that is projected to be much larger than observed over the 20th century, with loss of coastal area and associated impacts. There is y, f pbetter understanding than in the TAR that the risk of additional contributions to sea level rise from both the Greenland and possibly Antarctic ice sheets may be larger than projected by ice sheet models and could occur on century time scales and could occur on century time scales …
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