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Co-benefits of options for cleaner energy use in China

Wellcome Trust Meeting, London, May 27, 2008

Kristin Aunan, CICERO

• China – an important country for future global warming

• Top-down and bottom up assessment of co-benefits of climate policies

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Why co-benefits? Climate-change and air-pollution links

• Source link: CO2 and the main air pollutants to a large extent have the same sources

• Air pollutants, especially tropospheric ozone and particles, play an important role in the climate system

• Chemistry: Some air pollutants affect the lifetimes of GHGs (e.g. increased CO may increase the lifetime of CH4)

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Coal use in China is rocketing

• 4.5% growth in global coal consumption last year

• 72% of the global increase due to China

Source: BP Amoco 2007

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Probably large emissions in the pipe line

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

MtCO2

USA Russia India China

Carbon content of proven fossil fuel reserves in 2005World top 4

Coal Oil Gas

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0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

Beijing

Guangzhou

Taiyuan

Lanzhou

Shanghai

Tokyo

New York

Los Angeles

Rio de Janeiro

Mexico City

Delhi

NO2

SO2

TSP

mg/m 3

Urban air pollution - Chinese cities among the worstUrban air pollution - Chinese cities among the worst

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Air pollution standards exceeded x times

• 340 mill. people in cities where PM10> 100 mg/m3 (58% of urban population Class III and above)

• 70 mill. people in cities where PM10> 150 mg/m3

• In addition: Indoor air pollution in rural areas is severe

00

Source: World Bank/SEPA, 2007

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2a) Bottom-up study: Energy saving 2a) Bottom-up study: Energy saving and clean coal technologies in and clean coal technologies in Shanxi province. Shanxi province. COCO22 reductions reductions

and health co-benefitsand health co-benefits

1. Top-down approach: Assessment of a 1. Top-down approach: Assessment of a COCO22 tax in China using macroeconomic tax in China using macroeconomic

model (CGE), accounting for health and model (CGE), accounting for health and agricultural co-benefitsagricultural co-benefits

Estimating short-term benefits from GHG reducing projects and policies – three examples

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3. Bottom-up studies:3. Bottom-up studies:Health benefits from reducing Health benefits from reducing exposure to indoor air pollution from exposure to indoor air pollution from solid fuel burning in peoples homessolid fuel burning in peoples homes

2b) Bottom-up study: ‘Cleaner Production’ 2b) Bottom-up study: ‘Cleaner Production’ projects in Taiyuan. COprojects in Taiyuan. CO22 reductions and reductions and

health co-benefitshealth co-benefits

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Implementing a CO2 tax in China: Welfare analysis for 2010 including health benefits

1.

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Welfare analysis including health benefits and avoided crop loss due to reduced surface ozone (NOx- ozone –crop link)

’No regrets’ CO2 abatement: 15% - 20%

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Impacts of two levels of a CO2 tax, 2010 (percentage change relative to baseline)

Reduction in CO2 emission 10% 20% NOx Emission National -6.06 -12.33 Guangdong -7.78 -15.73 Rest of China -5.85 -11.93 Productivity Guangdong Rice 0.19 0.38 Wheat 0.48 0.97 Other crops 0.39 0.78 Productivity Rest of China Rice 0.17 0.34 Wheat 0.17 0.35 Corn 0.14 0.29 Cotton 0.51 1.03 Other crops 0.19 0.39

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Bottom-up studies in Taiyuan: Clean coal and energy efficiency projects

• Detailed analysis of projects In Taiyuan: Energy efficiency improvements at Taiyuan Iron and Steel Company; District boiler house; Coal briquetting factory

• Shanxi province: Co-generation; Industrial boilers; Coal washing; Briquetting

2.

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Health co-benefits of CO2 reductions often higher than costs

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Cogeneration

Modified boiler d

esign

Boiler replacement

Improved boiler management

Coal washing

Briquetting

Iron and Steel 1 CDQ

Iron and Steel 2 55% EAF

Iron and Steel 3 CCPP

Iron and Steel 4 TRT

District boiler h

ouse DB

Briquetting factory CB

Health benefit/CO2 (USD/ton CO2)

Abatement cost (USD/ton CO2)

762 USD/ton CO2

US

D/t

on

CO

2

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Avoided deaths/mtCO2

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

Steel w ork -1 (T)

Steel w ork -2 (T)

Steel w ork -3 (T)

District boiler house (T)

Coal briquette factory (T)

Co-gen (S)

Modif ied boiler design (S)

Boiler replacement (S)

Improved boiler management (S)

Coal w ashing (S)

Briquetting (S)

Hungary (Aunan et al., 1998)

China (O'Connor et al., 2003)

China (Garbaccio et al, 2000)

India (Bussolo and O'Connor, 2001)

Chile (Dessus and O'Connor, 2003)

Chile (Cifuentes et al., 1999)

968

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Co-benefits from targeting rural energy

• Nearly 3/4 of the Chinese population use biomass and coal for cooking and heating

• WHO: 420 000 premature deaths annually due to indoor air pollution from solid fuel use in China

3.

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Very large reductions in exposure to PM10 can be obtained from targeted interventions in the household sector

ΔPWE (μg/m3 PM10) for three abatement scenarios in mainland China: 1) Clean fuels in urban residences, 2) partial fuel switch in rural residences, and 3) IAQ standard (150 μg/m3) met in all households

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• Most likely very large health benefits from interventions

• Current methodologies for health impact assessment not adequate

• Research needed!

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Solid fuel burning affects global and regional climate

Global integrated radiative forcing for a 1 y pulse of emissions from Asian households in 2000 (100 y time horizon)

From Aunan et al., in progress

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’Cutting the curve’ – avoiding the coal rung on the energy ladder good for the climate

But: As income increases in rural areas people tend to switch to coal

Source: NRCSTD and Fafo A/S, 2006, "Life in Western China: Tabulation Report of Monitoring Social and Economic Development in Western China", Beijing: China Statistics Press (Figure: Kristin Dalen (Fafo))

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A positive trend in reverse: 11% increase in residential coal consumption 2000-2005

China Energy Statistical Yearbook 2006

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Current emission – integrated radiative forcing (100 y time horizon)

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30% of biomass is replaced by coal, no sulfur removal in coal

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30% of biomass is replaced by coal, full sulfur removal in coal

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Barrow, Alaska,71°N

Contribution to BC in snow, Barrow, April 15, 2005

BC may also enhance melting of snow and ice in the Arctic

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Summary

• Clean coal technologies and energy efficiency improvements are cost-efficient options for co-control of air pollution and CO2 emissions

• Policies promoting clean household fuels in China may substantially reduce population exposure to particulate air pollution and may also be beneficial for regional and global climate

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Research needs

• Clean biomass technologies probably part of the solution. What are the viable options and what are their benefits for public health, climate, and development?

• Impacts of air pollutants on crops in Asia may be large – little knowledge (ozone, regional haze)

• Excellent research communities exist. Strong tradition for using these as policy advisors among Chinese policy makers

Associate Professor Shuxiao Wang at Tsinghua University